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German politics. Flinten-Uschi defying the laws of gravity


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6 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

So where is the majority coming from? Either FDP or Greens will need to hold their noses and go with a bloc they don't really want to govern with, I suppose. Is a SPD/CDU grand coalition possible? 

Basically, yes.

Green-SPD and CDU-FDP are the more natural fits in terms of coalitions. But both parties have shown they can form goverments when necessary. At least on a state level.

Schleswig-Holstein is ruled by a Jamaica coalition. In the South West, we have the Greens ruling as senior partner with the CDU in Baden-Württemberg, and the Stop-Light coalition of SPD-Greens-FDP in Rhineland-Palatinate. Saxony in the depths of the east is right now ruled by a coalition of CDU-SPD-Greens. Saxony-Anhalt is ruled by CDU-SPD-FDP. Oh, and in Hesse we have the CDU as senior partner in Goverment with the Greens. And in Brandenburg it's SPD-CDU-Greens.

Usually raison d'etat prevails, which says, we have to work with the election results we've been dealt and can't just go back to the polls over and over again, until we get the results that suits us. Two party coalitions are preferable as more stable and easier to forge (just accomadting one partner is easier than two).

Four years ago, talks broke down over FDP not willing to make concessions towards the Greens during the Jamaica talks. The SPD didn't really want to form a Grand Coalition (only other politically viable option (SPD was too weak form a goverment as senior partner). There Steinmeier (President) had to intervene and remind them of their responsibility (check above with raison d'etat) and so they reluctantly ended up in another Grand Coalition they didn't want.

Thus Greens and FDP started to talk with each other first, as there's the biggest gulf to bridge in terms of politics and policies. There's an overlap between those parties on other issues. Immigration, civil rights etc. On Fiscal and enviromental issues, they are on almost polar opposites. The FDP doesn't believe state intervention is required to combat the climate crisis, instead magical thinking (inventions just around the corner) and giving companies a tax break to invent/modernize their business will solve it. Green position, no, that won't do. We need to pass laws (more regulations) and actually spend money (infrastrucutre, subsidies on solar panels etc.) to make the economy greener. To spend money we have to raise taxes (way more in line with the SPD). The FDP believes more in [debunked] Reaganomics. If we lower taxes, we will generate more tax income (more in line with the CDU). I fucking loathe the rich men party (FDP).  What they could agree on, is to soften some moronic CSU pushed restrictions with regards to wind energy. Which has severely hampered them. Another thing they can realistically agree on, is a proper election reform. So the parliament won't grow ever bigger.

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14 hours ago, Mindwalker said:

Yeah, no. If you dig a bit deeper with libertarians (and with that lot, a couple of what-if questions are usually enough), it has nothing to do with idealism, it's all about survival of the fittest, ME MYSELF and I, markets, and if push comes to shove (i.e. if someone else contests anyone's claims, property etc.), guns. Granted, the FDP doesn't have the guns part (that we know of).

Yeah if asked they’d support a dictatorship in order to protect their “property rights” many would say yes.  Hey “government” is tyranny any way, so why not go with the one who wouldn’t have to appeal that much to the “parasites” that make up the majority of society.

The libertarian-fascist pipeline is a real problem.

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I read the entire Spiegel article linked last page, and find the whole thing interesting.  It is strange that there are six parties that won seats, but one is too toxic (AfD) and one is too small to put any coalition over the top (left).  Thus there are only four meaningful parties for forming a coalition, and thus there are only three realistic coalitions (not counting minority govts). 

SDP/FDP/Green (stoplight)

CDU/FDP/Green (Jamaica)

SDP/CDU

 

All of those are at least somewhat awkward.  FDP and the Greens are a terrible fit - the only issues they agree on are less important to both of them, whereas issues like environmental regulations and fiscal policy they are completely opposed.  In the Spiegel article, they mentioned that it's possible the ruling Greens would prefer CDU to SDP, because they'd have a more powerful voice as an essential member of a conservative govt.  But honestly, that makes no sense to me.  As an American, it is very hard to really understand how minority members of governing bodies are supposed to act.  It all sounds kind of ridiculous that the FDP and Greens would need to be cooperating (at least somewhat) on fiscal and environmental policies. 

Were German boardmembers here hoping that the SDP/Green/Left govt would prevail this election?  They came so close. 

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36 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

 

Were German boardmembers here hoping that the SDP/Green/Left govt would prevail this election?  They came so close. 

The base and grass root members of the Greens, SPD, Left were hoping for it. At least here in Frankfurt and Rhine Main area. Yes there are differences but those differences are a matter of intensity not fundamental. 
SPD = the cautious, wise old dad/mum
Greens = the empathetic and engaged brother/sister, progressive but mild in manners
The Left = the aggressive, a bit uncompromising little brother/sister 

We are family. 

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47 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

I read the entire Spiegel article linked last page, and find the whole thing interesting.  It is strange that there are six parties that won seats, but one is too toxic (AfD) and one is too small to put any coalition over the top (left).  Thus there are only four meaningful parties for forming a coalition, and thus there are only three realistic coalitions (not counting minority govts). 

And now kids for your homework, you read through your entire post, and use the correct short for the Social Democratic Party of Germany. SPD and not SDP.

Anecdotal autobiographical note. As a little kid I was also somewhat confused why the Social Democratic Party's short is SPD and not SDP. But it's really Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands. Yes, Germans love long words.

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Simply not blundering through the campaign would have been sufficient. Post mortem, I really wish the Greens had picked Habeck. As tiresome as I find him with his long lofty speeches with little concrete content, but I have very little doubt that he would've delivered the 20%+.

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1 hour ago, Maithanet said:

All of those are at least somewhat awkward. 

That is pretty much German politics though - they have had a Grand Coalition in place since 2013. The same applies for 05-09. 

Awkward partnerships is the game. 

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1 hour ago, Toth said:

I just realized that the election campaign of the Greens would have been a bit more successful if Baerbock had a lover at RTL.

I seem to remember Lindner has an ex who is journalist, as well, and spoke really disparagingly about him in some talk show when he cancelled the coalition talks in 2017 (I think most viewers didn't even know she was his ex).

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1 hour ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Simply not blundering through the campaign would have been sufficient. Post mortem, I really wish the Greens had picked Habeck. As tiresome as I find him with his long lofty speeches with little concrete content, but I have very little doubt that he would've delivered the 20%+.

I mean, there is lots to be said about how to properly react to non-scandals or how Habeck would have been the better candidate, but my joke was more about how Lindner's girlfriend is some RTL reporter. I wonder whether the Lindner-party's success with young voters is also due to his media omnipresence especially in regards to his calls against corona measures to sacrifice us for the sake of the holy economy. I'm thinking many more egocentric youths saw the FDP as someone they can vote for against masks and closed clubs while not looking like an AfD nutjob.

1 minute ago, The Wondering Wolf said:

I seem to remember Lindner has an ex who is journalist, as well, and spoke really disparagingly about him in some talk show when he cancelled the coalition talks in 2017 (I think most viewers didn't even know she was his ex).

His exwife is a journalist and his new girlfriend is one as well...

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6 minutes ago, Toth said:

His exwife is a journalist and his new girlfriend is one as well...

I know, I just read your post and this old story suddenly came to my mind. I think it's a bit funny that you see a journalist rant on a politician who is her ex, and almost nobody knows that.

But yeah, Springer and these private networks like RTL are well known for their right wing boulevard, so it doesn't even need some private partnership.

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1 hour ago, Paxter said:

That is pretty much German politics though - they have had a Grand Coalition in place since 2013. The same applies for 05-09. 

Awkward partnerships is the game. 

I guess so.  But IMO it is somewhat comical that after a bitter campaign season that the next step is for the Greens (3rd most seats) and FDP (4th) to have talks about how to form a government together, and which of the 1st and 2nd place finishers they want to be the winner. 

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22 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

I guess so.  But IMO it is somewhat comical that after a bitter campaign season that the next step is for the Greens (3rd most seats) and FDP (4th) to have talks about how to form a government together, and which of the 1st and 2nd place finishers they want to be the winner. 

They have done it before on state level in Schleswig-Holstein.

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The Green Youth organization did put their foot down: absolute no to Jamaica. Baerbock and Habeck are smart enough to understand the message. 

The FDP will be a big problem in negotiations. We have to offer them something significantly. But I got no clue what. Lindner is one thing, he is reasonable but his voters and others in his party less so. 

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8 hours ago, Loge said:

They have done it before on state level in Schleswig-Holstein.

Though this is irrelevant for the federal level. State level coalitions are almost always about pragmatic management and some agreed upon bullet point projects at maximum. I think we can all agree that we are on a Crossroads now. We need the strategic changes. 

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11 hours ago, Toth said:

I mean, there is lots to be said about how to properly react to non-scandals or how Habeck would have been the better candidate, but my joke was more about how Lindner's girlfriend is some RTL reporter. I wonder whether the Lindner-party's success with young voters is also due to his media omnipresence especially in regards to his calls against corona measures to sacrifice us for the sake of the holy economy. I'm thinking many more egocentric youths saw the FDP as someone they can vote for against masks and closed clubs while not looking like an AfD nutjob.

The problem with the non-scandals were, that they hit where it hurts. Transparency and credibility are more or less core values for the Green party. And Baerbock's scandals undermined her there. The campaign was simply not good, plain and simple. Baerbock wanted to be on top of the ticket, so ultimately she has to bear blame for it.

With the conservatives or the bloody FDP you kinda expect them to not properly report their income, or to make their resumee look somewhat better (Uschi, tell us about your time at Stanford, again). We all know that Lindner is full of shit and that him and Laschet are both clowns and that neither of them really qualifies as serious political thinker.

Then there was Baerbock's infamous book. It was just too much.

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10 hours ago, Loge said:

They have done it before on state level in Schleswig-Holstein.

Not quite. There the situation was kinda reversed.

Albig (SPD) produced a remarkable trainwreck of a campaign as the incumbent and completely destroyed his popularity. It was really impressive. So the CDU under Günter ended up as the strongest party after the election, making gains, while the SPD lost seats.

The FDP completely ruled out joining a goverment under Albig, that restricted the options to form a goverment. So it was either a Grand Coalition of CDU-SPD or it was Jamaica (CDU-Greens-FDP).

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20 hours ago, Arakan said:

The base and grass root members of the Greens, SPD, Left were hoping for it. At least here in Frankfurt and Rhine Main area. Yes there are differences but those differences are a matter of intensity not fundamental. 
SPD = the cautious, wise old dad/mum
Greens = the empathetic and engaged brother/sister, progressive but mild in manners
The Left = the aggressive, a bit uncompromising little brother/sister 

We are family. 

Sorry, in the interest of the non-German board members I want to say that your opinion on this  is not the German  majority opinion (or even the Green or SPD majority opinion). The left party is the left-over of the East German communist party - which were criminals - combined with very few West German marxist loonies. They are loosing ground because in the East the old communists are dying of old age and the young election base switched to the AFD since for them it was all about protest anyway. No one wants to form a coalition with them, and Scholz only didnt say so because his dealings with the FDP would be much easier if he had a (formal) alternativ.  A lot of what they and their partner organisations stand for is unconstitutional. They also want to immediately leave the NATO and all Western alliances. They are in no way a family with the democratic left leaning SPD and the climate saving Greens.

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Can we like restrict the Red Sox campaign to the Baseball thread?

If we claim that their aims are unconstitutional, can you provide an example. If not, Baseball thread.

Yes, their governing prospects were rather slim from the get-go due to their non-sensical stances on foreign policy. Domestically, I find them much more palatable than Lindner's tax terrorists.

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17 hours ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Can we like restrict the Red Sox campaign to the Baseball thread?

If we claim that their aims are unconstitutional, can you provide an example. If not, Baseball thread.

Yes, their governing prospects were rather slim from the get-go due to their non-sensical stances on foreign policy. Domestically, I find them much more palatable than Lindner's tax terrorists.

example: Kommunistische Plattform;  organisation inside the left party which is observed by the Verfassungsschutz, because their goals are unconstitutional

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