German politics. Flinten-Uschi defying the laws of gravity

[A Horse Named Stranger]

Der Spiegel Analysis a bit longer read, Yes, it's the English version.

[Arakan]

7 minutes ago, Paxter said:

From the outside looking in, it seems slightly absurd that the CDU is still laying claim to the Chancellorship despite having their worst ever result, while the SPD had its best result since the Schroder era.

What exactly does it take to convince these guys that they didn't win :P. 

It is absurd. Same mindset as Trumpists in the US. These people feel so much entitled to hold the power that they will do anything to cling to it, including building up their own reality. 

[The Wondering Wolf]

1 hour ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Are you implying, that he flew too high for the FDP, before coming back down to earth crashing?

As I said before, all blessings come from above. Sometimes I regret that I don't believe in hell after life...

[kiko]

1 hour ago, Arakan said:

It is absurd. Same mindset as Trumpists in the US. These people feel so much entitled to hold the power that they will do anything to cling to it, including building up their own reality. 

I disagree. For starters, it wouldn't be the first time that the party with the most votes ended up in the opposition. Second, I guess we all celebrated when Netanyahu got kicked out  even though he got the most votes in Israel. Third, the SPD didn't get a very strong mandate to head the next government. So, I don't share the sentiment, it is totally out of proportion.

Nevertheless, I do think that the SPD should form the next government together with the Greens and that other party.

[The Anti-Targ]

It seems the Free Democrats party is the king maker party, as I am guessing AfD will not support a SPD lead govt and the Greens won't support an Union lead govt. Does Free Democrats have a natural coalition partner?

[The Wondering Wolf]

20 minutes ago, kiko said:

I disagree. For starters, it wouldn't be the first time that the party with the most votes ended up in the opposition. Second, I guess we all celebrated when Netanyahu got kicked out  even though he got the most votes in Israel. Third, the SPD didn't get a very strong mandate to head the next government. So, I don't share the sentiment, it is totally out of proportion.

Nevertheless, I do think that the SPD should form the next government together with the Greens and that other party.

Comparing the CDU with Trumpists is inappropriate indeed. They don't doubt the results and any party that forms a coalition in the Bundestag has the right to lead a government. From a political point of view, I think it's just nonsense that Laschet believes he can be the next chancellor. He has achieved the worst CDU result ever, many direct candidates lost their seats because of him, and a majority of people don't trust him and don't want him. His party will give him a few weeks to form a coalition, then he will fade into obscurity. If this was a Godfather movie, he would end up with a bullet in the head.

[Lord Varys]

Historically, the FDP was a kind of reception camp for old Nazis in the 1950s. Not that the CDU didn't have their fair share of Nazis, Kurt Georg Kiesinger was a Nazi who became Chancellor, and later still we had Karl Carstens as President.

Overall, though, the FDP is not so much a party but the lobby group of certain rich folks in the BRD. The CDU also has that function, but the FDP focuses even more on that. Traditionally, they were also responsible to protect certain particular interests like those of the class of independent apothecaries in Germany - which very much dominanted the FDP for decades ;-).

They do not really have a program as such, aside from the traditional neoliberal agenda the CDU also likes to do. Most of their civil rights issues are just window-dressing because their natural coalition partner is the CDU and they always push their right-wing agenda.

They are very good at PR, though, and, in part due to their business connections, they always shine in the media. That's one of the main reasons - or the main reason - why they had so much success among young voters.

[The Wondering Wolf]

10 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

It seems the Free Democrats party is the king maker party, as I am guessing AfD will not support a SPD lead govt and the Greens won't support an Union lead govt. Does Free Democrats have a natural coalition partner?

Since the 1980ies the FDP prefers coalitions with the CDU, so CDU-FDP-Greens is not out of reach after all (I don't think it will happen, though). 

[The Anti-Targ]

Would CDU and FDP not first approach AfD, as it seems to be on the same ideological divide? Or is AfD too toxic for anyone to consider getting in bed with? If AfD is off the table for anyone then is a minority govt likely? SPD+Green+Left =  363 seats; CDU+ FDP = 288 seats. Neither of those is a majority, but it seems like with AFD the right has a majority of seats, which means CDU+FDP are more likely to be able to put forward an achievable legislative agenda and survive votes of no confidence.  

[The Wondering Wolf]

4 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Would CDU and FDP not first approach AfD, as it seems to be on the same ideological divide? Or is AfD too toxic for anyone to consider getting in bed with? If AfD is off the table for anyone then is a minority govt likely? SPD+Green+Left =  363 seats; CDU+ FDP = 288 seats. Neither of those is a majority, but it seems like with AFD the right has a majority of seats, which means CDU+FDP are more likely to be able to put forward an achievable legislative agenda and survive votes of no confidence.  

The AfD consists of two wings: a right wing and an extreme right wing. Against the background of German history there is a deep aversion towards far right parties in the population. The CDU has always been a rather moderate conservative party, but Angela Merkel has led the party further to the political centre than anytime before, that's why she was so successful. Now the CDU has lost grip of the centre a bit, but it's nothing that couldn't be changed in four years. If they worked together with the AfD (not only forming a coalition, even just being tolerated in a minority government) the party would implode within hours, it's just unthinkable. The fact that Laschet didn't prevent or couldn't prevent Hans Georg Maaßen (CDU member, former chief of German Intelligence Service, dismissed for not seeing any threat by right extremists, now a notorious right wing conspiracy theorist) from running for Bundestag already damaged his campaign badly. So to cut a long story short: Neither CDU nor FDP can work together with the AfD without breaking their own necks. Besides, the Germans don't like minority governments. They often don't survive the term, and when we have voted, we don't want to be bothered within the next four years.

[Mindwalker]

7 hours ago, Arakan said:

This is how the FDP would like to be seen, the party promoting the classic 19th century liberalism but that’s a lie. Your libertarians over there in the US, they at least believe in something, have some universal idealism, no matter how whacky. At least this is how it seems to me. Example would be Ron Paul. Yes, from an economic point of view he would be FDP but he also had a political side, total personal Freedom, anti-interventionist, anti-neocolonial policies, citizen rights etc. 

The FDP is just about the Money Part, they believe in nothing except status, money, lifestyle, fame. 

Yeah, no. If you dig a bit deeper with libertarians (and with that lot, a couple of what-if questions are usually enough), it has nothing to do with idealism, it's all about survival of the fittest, ME MYSELF and I, markets, and if push comes to shove (i.e. if someone else contests anyone's claims, property etc.), guns. Granted, the FDP doesn't have the guns part (that we know of).

[The Anti-Targ]

So where is the majority coming from? Either FDP or Greens will need to hold their noses and go with a bloc they don't really want to govern with, I suppose. Is a SPD/CDU grand coalition possible? 

[Mindwalker]

2 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

It seems the Free Democrats party is the king maker party, as I am guessing AfD will not support a SPD lead govt and the Greens won't support an Union lead govt. Does Free Democrats have a natural coalition partner?

Actually, the Green leaders would happily sexwork themselves out to CDU and FDP, but most of their voters lean more center-left. Depends on regions etc. The FDP leans very much to the right, but with Lindner's inflated ego, the size of which is antiproportional to any kind of substance, he'll play this for all it's worth.

 

As for "who really won", it's not s clear-cut, but I do think that the huge losses of one party vs wins of the other should weigh in. Laschet will not survive this politically if he doesn't end up in government, so he's desperate, too.

That said, it is German practise that after every election, almost every party will pretend tey somehow won.

SPD: We won more votes than the CDU/ CDU, plus they have the worst numbers ever etc. etc.

CDU: People need stability, also communism! Also, people want change and future and it's not like we led the government of the previous 16 ys.

FDP: Very good results, best results with first-time voters etc.

Greens: Yeah, we led the race 6 months ago, but... could be worse after effing up so much! *fluffy hugs* *love* *no hard feelings*

AfD: Yeah we lost votes but we're still here despite all the other parties being mean to us! Nana nanana!

The Left (LINKE): Yeah, we suck. We got only 4 %, so we only scaped by because we got 3 direct mandates, oterwise we wouldn't even be in! Lucky us, huh?

(Just kidding, ofc they don't think they suck.)

[The Wondering Wolf]

8 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Either FDP or Greens will need to hold their noses and go with a bloc they don't really want to govern with, I suppose.

That's what's most likely gonna happen. The party establishent of the Greens is really flexible when it comes to being part of the government, but the party base is less so and leans a bit more to the left. And since Laschet as chancellor would be absurd, the FDP will demand huge concessions for joining SPD and Greens.

14 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Is a SPD/CDU grand coalition possible? 

That coalition has ruled 12 out of the last 16 years. Nobody wants it. But if the FDP demands too much from the SPD, they might reconsider things.

[The Wondering Wolf]

35 minutes ago, Mindwalker said:

AfD: Yeah we lost votes but we're still here despite all the other parties being mean to us! Nana nanana!

You don't even have to invent anything for the AfD. Maybe you watched the Elefantenrunde yesterday when Alice Weidel said that there were many small parties competing with the AfD and taking votes from them, so if the results were adjusted, you would see the AfD actually gained votes. One could see how Christisn Lindner next to her wasn't able to controll his expression for a second.

[Mindwalker]

11 minutes ago, The Wondering Wolf said:

You don't even have to invent anything for the AfD. Maybe you watched the Elefantenrunde yesterday when Alice Weidel said that there were many small parties competing with the AfD and taking votes from them, so if the results were adjusted, you would see the AfD actually gained votes. One could see how Christisn Lindner next to her wasn't able to controll his expression for a second.

I know. I watched most of it but was a tad distracted by really wanting to hit at least 4 of those elephants, hard. Including Weidel ofc.

[Paxter]

1 hour ago, The Anti-Targ said:

So where is the majority coming from? Either FDP or Greens will need to hold their noses and go with a bloc they don't really want to govern with, I suppose. Is a SPD/CDU grand coalition possible? 

The CDU would probably prefer to go into opposition rather than govern as the junior partner in a Grand Coalition. And the SPD won't want to be the junior partner, since they got more seats and votes. 

AfD is not on the table as a coalition partner. The other parties won't deal with them. 

[The Marquis de Leech]

1 hour ago, The Anti-Targ said:

So where is the majority coming from? Either FDP or Greens will need to hold their noses and go with a bloc they don't really want to govern with, I suppose. Is a SPD/CDU grand coalition possible? 

The German Greens aren't the New Zealand Greens. They are much more comfortable in dealing with the Right, so long as they get some bones on climate and the environment.

[Arakan]

5 hours ago, The Wondering Wolf said:

Comparing the CDU with Trumpists is inappropriate indeed.

And @kiko normally I would agree with you but…remember Alex. The day after a 20 year old Student was shot dead in the head by a Querdenker and rightwing extremist because of a fucking mask, Laschet‘s team started that campaign spot that we have to talk and listen to everybody (including that one relative famous Querdenker who approached him at a town hall), clearly whoring themselves out in a desperate attempt to gain votes. 

Or the red scare tactics of CDU and CSU which mostly started immediately after the anniversary of the Hanau massacre (15km from me), where 9 young people where murdered by a Nazi. 

For me those tactics are despicable and devious and they showed how low the CDU/CSU would go to gain votes from possible AFD supporters. 

Speaking of…let’s just wait and see, how big the resolution of the Union is to not work together with Nazis when they are in the opposition, shall we? The first signs are there from the Thurinigia and Saxony CDU „not all of them are bad“ etc. 

No, CDU/CSU are not primitive like Trumpists but they are power hungry like them, especially Someone like Söder and the CSU as a whole. 

[Arakan]

2 hours ago, The Marquis de Leech said:

The German Greens aren't the New Zealand Greens. They are much more comfortable in dealing with the Right, so long as they get some bones on climate and the environment.

That’s true and all of the above what other posters have said. Mostly it’s because the Green Leadership is really power horny. They want to govern, desperately. 

That said, the Greens of 20 or 30 years ago were a different beast, much more idealistic. Anyway, that’s speaking of the party elite. The base is a different thing. Most of them, especially the youth are „cultural marxists“ (hahaha what a stupid word) to the bone. Their natural political family is RRG. And they almost hate and despise the Union, especially the JU (Junge Union). You know, the Left is somehow feared but the Greens they are ridiculed as treehuggers and know nothing idiots (off camera) especially by the Bavarian CSU. Have seen it all. One thing is when there are cameras and reporters, another in the Wirtshaus and Stammtisch. 

The Green Party elite would betray their base massively if they formed a coalition with the Union AND FDP (arrogant yuppies who make even more fun of the Greens).