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Aldarion

Aegon VI as a ruler

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4 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

 The lucrative deals keep coming even after a disastrous S8, even after most book fans consider the show the abomination since at least s5.

Keep on clinging to the hope that George will care about you, the Dany fan, to write the ending for Dany you wish for. 

The lucrative deals kept coming because TWOW and ADOS are not out yet. So people still have faith in George and are happy just to scapegoat D&D. If George flops, its over. 

Actually, I'm a Lannister supporter. After Tywin, I've been looking for the next strong leader for Westeros (haven't made up my mind yet). I know the House is basically finished and super unpopular, but I'm hoping Jaime and Cersei could have one last cool hurrah while the world falls apart around them. 

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15 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

 If Selmy lives, he might mediate... but I'm kindof certain Selmy will die, before Dany returns, possibly at Meereen and taken out by Shakaz, but not before he takes Tyrion on as part of a council. Selmy's POV won't be needed much anymore once Tyrion merges with the men who hold Meereen in Dany's absence. Nor am I convinced that they will keep hanging around in Meereen, not when the pale mare is going to spread inside the city after bodies have been catapulted across the walls. Most of them believe Dany's dead. At the end of aDwD even Selmy started to doubt whether she survived. And Tyrion wants to get back asap to Westeros to crush Cersei.

Here's what I think will happen. Selmy will reluctantly become to believe that Dany died. Tyrion reveals Aegon's existence. The pale mare epidemic spreads. The Tattered Prince wants Pentos. And then there's the news that Volantis aims to attack them. They'll have to take on Volantis, if Tyrion and Selmy mean to get Dany's army and allies to go to Westeros. Victarion manages to get control of a dragon with the horn, and Selmy with the help of Tyrion manage to make a deal with Vic promising the riches of Volantis. So, Selmy makes the decision to set out for Volantis (attack them), and then to Pentos, but gets killed before leaving. Jorah will insist on finding Dany, not believing she died, and so he'll be able to inform her they all left to attack Volantis. So, by the time she resurfaces, there's no Selmy anymore, just Tyrion and Jorah.

So essentially, Aegon will get murdered by a huge number of factors over which he had no control at all.

Do you mean that Selmy will try to get them to Westeros because Tyrion reveals Aegon's existence?

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40 minutes ago, Aldarion said:

Do you mean that Selmy will try to get them to Westeros because Tyrion reveals Aegon's existence?

That's a possibility yes, when we consider Tyrion is mostly motivated to kick shit in Westeros and willing to use anyone for it, and Selmy starting to doubt himself whether Dany survived by the end aDwD.

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4 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

You're correct that at the time Tyrion gave the advice, such a decision would have been nonsensical.

It is not just the decision, it is the dialogue of Tyrion and Aegon as such. Tyrion's suggestion that Aegon should go west instead of east as such is nonsensical since nobody wants to go east at that point. They go south and then they intend to go west once Dany is there.

The scenario Tyrion puts in front of Aegon should have come only when the gang was aware of her decision to remain in Meereen. But they learn about that only in Selhorys after Tyrion and Aegon had their little chat.

And it is not just that, it is also the part of the conversation about Aegon's true identity that is way off in the Aegon-Tyrion dialogue:

Quote

“A true friend, our Lord Connington. He must be, to remain so fiercely loyal to the grandson of the king who took his lands and titles and sent him into exile. A pity about that. Elsewise Prince Rhaegar’s friend might have been on hand when my father sacked King’s Landing, to save Prince Rhaegar’s precious little son from getting his royal brains dashed out against a wall.”
The lad flushed. “That was not me. I told you. That was some tanner’s son from Pisswater Bend whose mother died birthing him. His father sold him to Lord Varys for a jug of Arbor gold. He had other sons but had never tasted Arbor gold. Varys gave the Pisswater boy to my lady mother and carried me away.”

This 'I told you' makes no sense in context since Aegon and Tyrion never talked Aegon's true identity before, nor how it came that he was not killed. The last time they talked was under the Bridge of Dreams when Tyrion spilled the beans and nearly drowned. The chapter opens with him regaining consciousness, and there are no hints whatsoever that Aegon and Tyrion had the time or did talk about such matters before the cyvasse game.

I guess this might be remnant of another such conversation during one of the many versions of the Shrouded Lord chapter, some of which may have included the gang actively looking for Tyrion in the ruins of Chroyane (the version where Tyrion actually a met a literal Shrouded Lord certainly implies that he must have been separated from the gang for quite some time).

In any case, this is another sign of the rather poor placement of this rather crucial conversation.

4 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

Aegon didn't decide it then though, only during the GC meeting, when they knew Dany was still in Meereen, and it made sense then from Aegon's POV to heed Tyrion's advice, and Quentyn's storyline proved that she was on a set course then.

It was certainly no bad idea to go through with Tyrion's advice during the Golden Company meeting - but that doesn't change the fact that Tyrion's advice was both uncalled for and actually nonsensical when it was given. Just as Aegon's reaction to it was utterly nonsensical. He should have pointed out that Tyrion was not making sense, that such advice would only make sense if they had any reason to expect Dany not to come west.

And while Tyrion's assessment of Dany's character is pretty accurate, he obviously fails to take into account what strain Dany and her party would have been under had they been forced to march west on the demon road or take a a ragtag fleet from Slaver's Bay to Volantis. She wouldn't be a queen then, but just a proud beggar, dependent on the support Aegon and the Golden Company could offer her. The Golden Company a 10,000 professional soldiers - Dany would only have her Unsullied and whatever sellswords would accompany her (Daario likely would have gone with her, not so sure about the Second Sons), meaning that in the end they would have both about 10,000 men.

The idea that Aegon would bristle the way he does when he never intends to go like a beggar to his aunt at Meereen but expect her to come to him at Volantis - where he would receive them amidst the Golden Company is just utter nonsense.

Even if the they had decided to go to Meereen at the Golden Company meeting - they wouldn't have gone like Quentyn. They would have gone in force, possibly by playing the card of allowing themselves to be hired by the Yunkai'i to then turn against them. 10,000 professional soldiers would not be received or treated by Daenerys the way Dany treated Quentyn Martell.

Aegon would have mounted one of her dragons, and he would have put pressure on her to abandon Meereen, marry him, and accompany him to Westeros ... or rot and die in Slaver's Bay. Because if she were to spurn him and not accompany him she would not be welcome when he sat the Iron Throne. And with a dragon of his own Aegon definitely wouldn't need Dany.

And chances are rather low that Aegon couldn't mount a dragon. If Brown Ben Plumm's diluted Targaryen blood causes him to be liked by Dany's dragons, then Aegon should even be more popular with them than Ben.

4 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

Also, while Aegon did think of himself as the claimant, Dany wasn't seen as a begger: they knew she had 3 dragons and an army. That's why Aegon was to unite with her. Tyrion did manage to make him realize that Dany might be proud, a woman of independence, and that she might not be impressed with him.

I'm not even sure that Aegon should care about Dany being impressed by him. The plan was to make a deal. The support of the Golden Company in exchange for Dany's hand in marriage (and a dragon for Aegon). The option to actually make Aegon go to Queen Daenerys - sort of like a beggar or supplicant - only was on the table when it became clear she decided to stay in Meereen.

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29 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

It is not just the decision, it is the dialogue of Tyrion and Aegon as such. Tyrion's suggestion that Aegon should go west instead of east as such is nonsensical since nobody wants to go east at that point. They go south and then they intend to go west once Dany is there.

The scenario Tyrion puts in front of Aegon should have come only when the gang was aware of her decision to remain in Meereen. But they learn about that only in Selhorys after Tyrion and Aegon had their little chat.

And it is not just that, it is also the part of the conversation about Aegon's true identity that is way off in the Aegon-Tyrion dialogue:

This 'I told you' makes no sense in context since Aegon and Tyrion never talked Aegon's true identity before, nor how it came that he was not killed. The last time they talked was under the Bridge of Dreams when Tyrion spilled the beans and nearly drowned. The chapter opens with him regaining consciousness, and there are no hints whatsoever that Aegon and Tyrion had the time or did talk about such matters before the cyvasse game.

I guess this might be remnant of another such conversation during one of the many versions of the Shrouded Lord chapter, some of which may have included the gang actively looking for Tyrion in the ruins of Chroyane (the version where Tyrion actually a met a literal Shrouded Lord certainly implies that he must have been separated from the gang for quite some time).

In any case, this is another sign of the rather poor placement of this rather crucial conversation.

It was certainly no bad idea to go through with Tyrion's advice during the Golden Company meeting - but that doesn't change the fact that Tyrion's advice was both uncalled for and actually nonsensical when it was given. Just as Aegon's reaction to it was utterly nonsensical. He should have pointed out that Tyrion was not making sense, that such advice would only make sense if they had any reason to expect Dany not to come west.

And while Tyrion's assessment of Dany's character is pretty accurate, he obviously fails to take into account what strain Dany and her party would have been under had they been forced to march west on the demon road or take a a ragtag fleet from Slaver's Bay to Volantis. She wouldn't be a queen then, but just a proud beggar, dependent on the support Aegon and the Golden Company could offer her. The Golden Company a 10,000 professional soldiers - Dany would only have her Unsullied and whatever sellswords would accompany her (Daario likely would have gone with her, not so sure about the Second Sons), meaning that in the end they would have both about 10,000 men.

The idea that Aegon would bristle the way he does when he never intends to go like a beggar to his aunt at Meereen but expect her to come to him at Volantis - where he would receive them amidst the Golden Company is just utter nonsense.

Even if the they had decided to go to Meereen at the Golden Company meeting - they wouldn't have gone like Quentyn. They would have gone in force, possibly by playing the card of allowing themselves to be hired by the Yunkai'i to then turn against them. 10,000 professional soldiers would not be received or treated by Daenerys the way Dany treated Quentyn Martell.

Aegon would have mounted one of her dragons, and he would have put pressure on her to abandon Meereen, marry him, and accompany him to Westeros ... or rot and die in Slaver's Bay. Because if she were to spurn him and not accompany him she would not be welcome when he sat the Iron Throne. And with a dragon of his own Aegon definitely wouldn't need Dany.

And chances are rather low that Aegon couldn't mount a dragon. If Brown Ben Plumm's diluted Targaryen blood causes him to be liked by Dany's dragons, then Aegon should even be more popular with them than Ben.

I'm not even sure that Aegon should care about Dany being impressed by him. The plan was to make a deal. The support of the Golden Company in exchange for Dany's hand in marriage (and a dragon for Aegon). The option to actually make Aegon go to Queen Daenerys - sort of like a beggar or supplicant - only was on the table when it became clear she decided to stay in Meereen.



It doesn't matter.

This rather crucial conversation was a mistake. Aegon will come to bitterly regret the day he took Tyrion's advice to leave Volantis for Westeros.

What exactly were Tyrion's motivations for telling (or should I say soft-manipulating) Aegon this information?

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12 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

That's a possibility yes, when we consider Tyrion is mostly motivated to kick shit in Westeros and willing to use anyone for it, and Selmy starting to doubt himself whether Dany survived by the end aDwD.

Selmy is not going to abandon his queen. And Dany's people won't do that, either. They follow the old guy while he defends Meereen, they won't allow him to dictate them what to do after that's done - and neither won't they allow interlopers and foreigners like Jorah or Victarion or Tyrion do that. If there is a power bloc that will take over Dany's movement and put her ducks in a row it will be obviously Moqorro ... because the Volantene slave armada that's on their way will obey him. And his interpretation of Daenerys Targaryen the divine savior sent by R'hllor is the kind of story that will connect with all of Dany's freedmen - and they are the ones who count (the Unsullied, freedmen companies, reformed Ghiscari).

Moqorro is not going to take Dany's people back west to Volantis or farther west before they have found Dany. And he knows she is not dead. She is the savior, after all. He has seen it (or Benerro has seen it).

9 hours ago, Jabar of House Titan said:

It doesn't matter.

This rather crucial conversation was a mistake. Aegon will come to bitterly regret the day he took Tyrion's advice to leave Volantis for Westeros.

What exactly were Tyrion's motivations for telling (or should I say soft-manipulating) Aegon this information?

This idea that Aegon must fail/will die rests on sand at the moment. We have no idea what will happen to him and it is utterly pointless to speculate about that at this point. It is certainly likely that he'll come to regret that he didn't go east to take her with him - but it is actually more likely that Dany will come to regret how she treated Quentyn Martell and his two companions. Because they and Arianne will help ensure that Dorne stands against her when she finally arrives in Westeros. And that certainly may turn out to be more than just a mild nuisance.

Aegon actually invaded Westeros at the right time. He has the chance to win the throne now. It might be he and Dany would face far greater challenges together than he is now facing alone. I mean, had he and the Golden Company gone to Meereen to find Dany they may have arrived too late, i.e. only after her disappearance. That would have stranded them in the region for quite some time if we assume that they would want to find her - Aegon could claim a dragon and go search for his aunty in the Dothraki Sea.

Meanwhile, the rulers in KL could consolidate their power. The queens crisis in KL could be resolved, and a series of events could start where a strong and powerful leader who can unite the Seven Kingdoms against a Targaryen invasion. Things are so ideal for Aegon right now because basically all power blocs are occupied with themselves and their own infighting - Stannis/the Boltons in the North, the Lannisters/Tyrells in KL, Euron and the other Tyrells in the Reach, the Riverlands are in chaos, etc. All that can change rather quickly.

As for Tyrion's motivation:

The way he presents it he apparently has two goals: (1) He wants them to move now when the situation in Westeros is promising. (2) He wants to prevent Aegon from going east to Dany - which means this is actually a ploy to ruin Varys/Illyrio's plan and use Aegon as a weapon against Cersei and Jaime, possibly with the secret hope that 'the lad' gets himself killed. Tyrion doesn't like that Varys and Illyrio reduced them to their little Yollo pawn. He doesn't like that at all.

The problem I was outlining above is that this reading makes little sense in light of the fact what Tyrion did not yet know at that point - that Dany was not coming west. With him not knowing that it makes no sense for him to argue for a quick journey to Westeros (because that's their goal anyway!) nor for him to try to separate Aegon from Daenerys and the dragons (both would be powerful assets in a campaign he would be a part of!).

This is the other point where it becomes evident that the conversation has been moved to the wrong place in the novel: Only after Tyrion learned that Dany wasn't coming - that they would have to go to her if they wanted the dragons, and that they risked losing a year or more in the process of this uncertain journey - would he have truly considered a journey west without Dany/dragons. And only in such a scenario would have Aegon (or anyone) would have ever listened to such a scenario.

In fact, the way to remedy the conversation in ADwD would be to rephrase Tyrion's dialogue as a 'What if...' scenario - Tyrion does not suggest that Aegon go west instead of east, but asks Aegon what he would do if Dany was not coming (one could build up to something like that with Aegon talking about his and Dany's wedding at Volantis, and how he envisions it). Then Aegon could counter that he and Connington would search her out in Meereen then, and then Tyrion could start with his 'Aegon the beggar, Dany the proud queen' routine. The end could be the firm conclusion that this was all hypothetical nonsense ... only for Aegon to fall back to it during the Golden Company meeting.

The way it is in the novel it makes no sense.

I'd, however, have preferred such a conversation only after they actually had learned the news about Dany. After all, in the end it is not Tyrion's manipulation of Aegon that causes them to go west, but actually Connington's greyscale. That is the deciding factor. It is Connington's knowledge that he'll die soon that causes him to abandon caution. Had he still thought he had all the time in the world he would have insisted that they go to Meereen. And at this point it would have still been his call.

However, there is another seed in Tyrion's advice to Aegon - the 'trust no one' part and the 'think for yourself' part. I think we can see that Aegon taking charge of his own affairs rather forcefully in 'The Griffin Reborn' is another consequence of that.

Meaning that, in the end, it is likely going to be Tyrion who is going to regret his advice there the most because it might turn out that he helped Aegon to become a forceful and powerful monarch who is going to do his best to ensure that Dany and Tyrion are not going to steal his throne.

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On 7/8/2019 at 10:41 PM, Andrew Yang for President said:

True, but it is a start towards progress.  Or would you rather people sit on their arses and watch the Ghiscari continue to practice slavery because of the excuse that ending slavery isn't going to solve every social inequality in the world.  Look, just because the abolition of slavery won't solve every human misery is a poor reason to not do anything about it.  It reflects poorly on Westeros because they sat on their fat bums when they should have been fighting against slavery instead of fighting among themselves for the stupidest of reasons.  I look down on Catelyn's decision to arrest a Lannister to get revenge for Bran.  I look down on Jon's decision to put the Night's Watch into an awkward position just so he can rescue Arya.  I applaud Dany for her efforts in helping the slaves become free.  

:agree:

 

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On 7/9/2019 at 1:05 AM, Aldarion said:

1) You are using modern-day morals for medieval world.

2) Slavery isn't that easy to end.

3) Westeros cannot fight against slavery anywhere. They are medieval society, not Roman Empire; do you really think they have logistical capabilities required for serious force projection all the way out to the Slaver's Bay?

1- Slavery was wrong even back then.  That's why a whole religion outlaw it.  That slavery is bad is not a new idea.

2- No it isn't easy to end.  Doesn't mean good people shouldn't try.

3- They cannot fight against slavery everywhere, that is true.  But they could perhaps free Volantis.  

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