When it comes to major battles, is there a pattern which side wins?

[Br16]

37 minutes ago, Tyrion1991 said:

 

Yeah Eurons going to have his “Release the Kraken” moment.

I am expecting Aegon vs Mace to be an Agincourt. Iam sure it’s mentioned offhand that the GC has a unit of Longbows. If George wants the flower of chivalry to be slaughtered in the mud fields of the Stormland; kind of hard for that battle not to be referenced.

 

Spot on observation! I agree completely.

[BalerionTheCat]

17 hours ago, Tyrion1991 said:

If they want independence then they don’t want your respect

I don't think the Starks, or the Northmen in general, cared if the Targaryen or Lannisters respected them. What was lacking IMO was causes for the Northmen to respect the Southerons. Their unceasing wars and greed was no cause to want to be part of the same kingdom.

[Tyrion1991]

6 hours ago, BalerionTheCat said:

I don't think the Starks, or the Northmen in general, cared if the Targaryen or Lannisters respected them. What was lacking IMO was causes for the Northmen to respect the Southerons. Their unceasing wars and greed was no cause to want to be part of the same kingdom.

 

Hmm, looks at the Bolton’s. The crow calls the raven black. Quite a few war mongers in the North. They love war and killing as much as the Ironborn.

Yeah I think the Northerners believe they’re morally superior to the South. It’s like an English Puritan of the 17th century regarding a Roman Catholic in Europe as decadent, corrupt, lazy and idle. When real virtuous men should be humble, spurn “luxury” and concentrate on working hard. So you get a bunch of dour, miserable folk who complain whenever anyone sings or dances because Winter is Coming and we need to get ready for the hard times. Which in the real world means working the peasants to death, making sure they aren’t having too many holidays, none of that drinking and acquiring “luxury goods” beyond their means. No we need a disciplined workforce to keep the harvest in and the only fun should be your endless duty to the Lord. Yeah, I really don’t buy this being a virtue for the North because of the historical precedent. 

 

[Impbread]

On 7/4/2019 at 10:29 AM, Wolfbynature said:

Aparently in my view, George Martin loves to explain the victory of one side with a special feint or some special action that takes place, not so much just military force and combat effectiveness.  

The battle in the wispering woods:
 - They lure Jamie Lannister into the woods

The Battle of the BlackWater:
 - The chain and the wildfire

The Battle of the Trident:
 - Robert kills Rhaegar

The Battle of the Redgrass Field:
 - Bloodraven first kills Daemon and then defeats Bittersteel 

The Battle of the Bells:
 - JonCon insists of beeing knightly / refuses to burn the city
 - Robert emerges from the Peach

The siege of Meeren:
 - Daenerys sends men through the sewers

Therefore I assume for future battles that the side with the better "trick" will win and the the outcome will not so much depend on the numbers and the sheer military force. 

Don't forget Rob taking the Crag or one of the westerland castles by using a goat path that was not on the map. He planned on doing something similar to to take Moat Cailen ( spelling) before his death. 

[The Lord of the Crossing]

On 7/4/2019 at 10:29 AM, Wolfbynature said:

Aparently in my view, George Martin loves to explain the victory of one side with a special feint or some special action that takes place, not so much just military force and combat effectiveness.  

The battle in the wispering woods:
 - They lure Jamie Lannister into the woods

Robb had to sacrifice a lot of men to win that battle.  

On 7/4/2019 at 10:29 AM, Wolfbynature said:

The Battle of the BlackWater:
 - The chain and the wildfire

The Battle of the Trident:
 - Robert kills Rhaegar

This battle could have gone either way.  And it was stupid of Rhaegar to do this.  He should do what Bloodraven did.  Tell his archers to aim for Robert.  There is no such thing as fairness in war.  It shouldn't be.  Rhaegar was a fool.  

On 7/4/2019 at 10:29 AM, Wolfbynature said:

The Battle of the Redgrass Field:
 - Bloodraven first kills Daemon and then defeats Bittersteel 

Bloodraven set aside honor to win the battle for the Targaryens.  Good man.

On 7/4/2019 at 10:29 AM, Wolfbynature said:

The Battle of the Bells:
 - JonCon insists of beeing knightly / refuses to burn the city
 - Robert emerges from the Peach

Jon Connington should have burned the town if the town's people were hiding Robert.  That was stupid not to.  The town was aiding a rebel.  He had the right to burn them.

On 7/4/2019 at 10:29 AM, Wolfbynature said:

The siege of Meeren:
 - Daenerys sends men through the sewers

That's what I love about Dany.  She would most often choose the strategy to limit the casualties to her side whenever possible.  Choosing to risk Belwas instead of her more useful men to fight Oznak was another smart move.  It's what a leader should do in that situation.  She's far and ahead a better leader than Robb.

On 7/4/2019 at 10:29 AM, Wolfbynature said:

Therefore I assume for future battles that the side with the better "trick" will win and the the outcome will not so much depend on the numbers and the sheer military force. 

It's called "The Art of War" by Sun Tzu.  The tactics are not nice and they do not stay within the chivalrous code but they are practical.  

[Br16]

7 hours ago, Tyrion1991 said:

 

Hmm, looks at the Bolton’s. The crow calls the raven black. Quite a few war mongers in the North. They love war and killing as much as the Ironborn.

Yeah I think the Northerners believe they’re morally superior to the South. It’s like an English Puritan of the 17th century regarding a Roman Catholic in Europe as decadent, corrupt, lazy and idle. When real virtuous men should be humble, spurn “luxury” and concentrate on working hard. So you get a bunch of dour, miserable folk who complain whenever anyone sings or dances because Winter is Coming and we need to get ready for the hard times. Which in the real world means working the peasants to death, making sure they aren’t having too many holidays, none of that drinking and acquiring “luxury goods” beyond their means. No we need a disciplined workforce to keep the harvest in and the only fun should be your endless duty to the Lord. Yeah, I really don’t buy this being a virtue for the North because of the historical precedent. 

 

Yeah, I don't think the Northerners are truly more compassionate or morally superior. They just pride themselves in their rough austere lifestyle/warrior honor, and disdain the wealth of the South, its honeyed words and fancy courtiers in silk. 

 

[BalerionTheCat]

9 hours ago, Tyrion1991 said:

Hmm, looks at the Bolton’s. The crow calls the raven black. Quite a few war mongers in the North.

The Boltons are the Red King's descendants. IMO, the Northmen would have been better exterminate them totally. But beside the Barrow kings and the Wargs king, none better it seems, I don't have similar examples. More so, when the Andals invaded Westeros, no house took side with them. Contrary to what happened in the south. It seems no one wanted to change of master.

9 hours ago, Tyrion1991 said:

working the peasants to death, making sure they aren’t having too many holidays, none of that drinking and acquiring “luxury goods” beyond their means. No we need a disciplined workforce to keep the harvest in and the only fun should be your endless duty to the Lord.

I recognize here the Targaryen and Lannisters, maybe the Tyrells. They are not alone in the south. But the Starks do not live in luxury. None in the North except maybe the Manderlys. But they are no less standing with them than the other. The North is different. The winter kills the weak. The Starks words, the pack thing.

[Universal Sword Donor]

18 hours ago, The Lord of the Crossing said:

Robb had to sacrifice a lot of men to win that battle.  

Roose sacrificed those men, not Robb. That said, Robb should have given a bit more instruction to Roose. Roose probably didn't even need to engage Tywin in battle to get him to continue his march up the Trident. He definitely didn't need to do a midnight march and have his men charge from a superior defensive position.

18 hours ago, The Lord of the Crossing said:

This battle could have gone either way.  And it was stupid of Rhaegar to do this.  He should do what Bloodraven did.  Tell his archers to aim for Robert.  There is no such thing as fairness in war.  It shouldn't be.  Rhaegar was a fool.  

Rhaegar was possibly a fool. We don't really know the circumstances of his crossing. I've seen the idea thrown around more than a few times that he was crossing the Trident because his army was routing. It makes a certain amount of sense knowing what we know happened to Llewyn Martell, Selmy, and Jonothor Darry, who commanded at least one wing of the battle. 

18 hours ago, The Lord of the Crossing said:

Bloodraven set aside honor to win the battle for the Targaryens.  Good man.

What's dishonorable about using archers to shoot the enemy? Just because certain knights disliked it (Jaime, JonCon) doesn't mean it is inherently without honor. It just negates their advantages as being ahorse and more heavily armed / armored than the infantry. 

18 hours ago, The Lord of the Crossing said:

Jon Connington should have burned the town if the town's people were hiding Robert.  That was stupid not to.  The town was aiding a rebel.  He had the right to burn them.

Whether or not he had the right to, it was a pretty common tactic in the middle ages.

 

[Br16]

On 7/5/2019 at 10:46 AM, Angel Eyes said:

just 40,000 vs 35,000 and Rhaegar being foolish enough to cross the Trident River when he did not need to with an army of mostly green troops.

I often wonder why Rhaegar didn't pick up a bunch of Tyrell troops from that bloated Storms End siege while he rode up to Kings Landing. He could easily still have gotten at least 10K Reach calvary if he couldn't be botheted to wait for the foot soldiers to march up.

[Universal Sword Donor]

16 hours ago, Br16 said:

I often wonder why Rhaegar didn't pick up a bunch of Tyrell troops from that bloated Storms End siege while he rode up to Kings Landing. He could easily still have gotten at least 10K Reach calvary if he couldn't be botheted to wait for the foot soldiers to march up.

He did. Also bear in mind that keeping that many men together (40K) is a strain on supplies and logistics. Other than Renly's host, the only groups we see marching have less than 20K people and even those armies need to forage heavily nearby for food (Robb at MC, Tywin at HH).

Tyrell had a sizeable host, but some of his strength was with Rhaegar, certainly.

https://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Entry/The_Siege_of_Storms_End

 

 

 

[Br16]

3 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

He did. Also bear in mind that keeping that many men together (40K) is a strain on supplies and logistics. Other than Renly's host, the only groups we see marching have less than 20K people and even those armies need to forage heavily nearby for food (Robb at MC, Tywin at HH).

Tyrell had a sizeable host, but some of his strength was with Rhaegar, certainly.

https://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Entry/The_Siege_of_Storms_End

 

 

 

Imo, he didn't bring nearly enough as the final tally was 40k green troops vs 35k battle hardened rebels. Mace should have enough calvary/knights to give him a 50k host.

Of couse, logistics is an issue, but this was a make or break fight. Moreover, Aerys had full treasury, Mace had plenty food for his hobby siege and Trident wasn't so far away. It's doable if Rhaegar really tried.

[Corvo the Crow]

Battle of the Greenfork, both sides used trickery, Roose marched through the night for a surprise attack and Tywin a weak flank for a lure. they both failed. Tywin won only because he had the numbers and a bit of luck; Gregor’s giant horse that broke the spearwall and Gregor surviving the fall undamaged and even being able to get up with all that armor.

[Moiraine Sedai]

On 7/4/2019 at 3:54 PM, BalerionTheCat said:

A trick, maybe. A cheat rather. It shows she doesn't hold to her side of the bargains. I believe she is paying it in Meereen by the slavers betraying her at any opportunity... If any deal was possible. But it's buiding a bad reputation anyway. Unike the Starks.

In my first reading, I though it was GRRM cheating us. Until I realize it was intended to be Daenerys cheating.

It is the best strategy employed to guarantee the success of the intended operation.  She is much better than Robb Stark as a commander and battle planner.  Better in every way that matters.

[Moiraine Sedai]

On 7/9/2019 at 2:39 AM, Br16 said:

I often wonder why Rhaegar didn't pick up a bunch of Tyrell troops from that bloated Storms End siege while he rode up to Kings Landing. He could easily still have gotten at least 10K Reach calvary if he couldn't be botheted to wait for the foot soldiers to march up.

Rhaegar was a poor commander.  He cared more about chivalry than he ever did about battle plans.

[Universal Sword Donor]

7 hours ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Battle of the Greenfork, both sides used trickery, Roose marched through the night for a surprise attack and Tywin a weak flank for a lure. they both failed. Tywin won only because he had the numbers and a bit of luck; Gregor’s giant horse that broke the spearwall and Gregor surviving the fall undamaged and even being able to get up with all that armor.

Tywin won because the northerner's let Tywin's army, spread over miles**, arm and assemble while standing less than a mile away*, and then gave up the favorable high ground*** to charge into .... heavy cavalry and massed infantry in defensive formations. The night march wasn't a bad idea, but the entire execution of that battle afterward is either moronic incompetence on Roose's part or complete and utter intentional devastation of Robb's staunchest supporters and Roose's biggest enemies while still barely achieving Robb's goals.

Honestly it's shades of Hallidon Hill.

* "The Stark boy stole a march on us," Bronn said. "He crept down the kingsroad in the night, and now his host is less than a mile north of here, forming up in battle array."

** Dusk had settled, turning all the banners black. The Lannister camp sprawled for miles between the river and the kingsroad. In amongst the men and the horses and the trees, it was easy to get lost, and Tyrion did.

***  "suddenly the enemy was there before them, boiling over the tops of the hills, advancing with measured tread behind a wall of shields and pikes."

[John Suburbs]

On 7/4/2019 at 10:29 AM, Wolfbynature said:

Aparently in my view, George Martin loves to explain the victory of one side with a special feint or some special action that takes place, not so much just military force and combat effectiveness.  

The battle in the wispering woods:
 - They lure Jamie Lannister into the woods

The Battle of the BlackWater:
 - The chain and the wildfire

The Battle of the Trident:
 - Robert kills Rhaegar

The Battle of the Redgrass Field:
 - Bloodraven first kills Daemon and then defeats Bittersteel 

The Battle of the Bells:
 - JonCon insists of beeing knightly / refuses to burn the city
 - Robert emerges from the Peach

The siege of Meeren:
 - Daenerys sends men through the sewers

Therefore I assume for future battles that the side with the better "trick" will win and the the outcome will not so much depend on the numbers and the sheer military force. 

If war was a question of patterns, seamstresses would rule the world. 

[Br16]

9 hours ago, Moiraine Sedai said:

Rhaegar was a poor commander.  He cared more about chivalry than he ever did about battle plans.

Yep, that's probably why he lost.

[Wolfbynature]

On 7/10/2019 at 9:07 PM, John Suburbs said:

If war was a question of patterns, seamstresses would rule the world. 

But it is not the real world, we are talking about. It is a world inside of George Martin´s brain. Anything is possible there.

[John Suburbs]

2 hours ago, Wolfbynature said:

But it is not the real world, we are talking about. It is a world inside of George Martin´s brain. Anything is possible there.

I know. I was being flippant. 

[cpg2016]

On 7/5/2019 at 5:48 PM, Tyrion1991 said:

 

You can’t really respect somebody with an irreconcilable difference. If they want independence then they don’t want your respect. I am sure respecting Stark Kingship and dominion of the Riverlands would settle the conflict; but that’s also losing.

Plus it’s who is being humiliated. House Stark aren’t the First Men or the North. It’s their claim to Kingship which is the problem as it predates any “Baratheon” claim. The Ancient Kings of Winter. So they’re at war with an idea. The best way to kill an idea is to humiliate it. To make people laugh at it and see it for a joke. So they needed to discredit house starks legitimacy. They don’t need to humiliate Northerners in general.

Once they’ve done that then yeah they can take Northern squires, have Northern Lords go on joint campaigns to the Iron Islands and other appointments to heal the wounds.

The entire thematic arc of the books is to discredit exactly this idea.

Tywin Lannister is all about humiliation, about escalating conflict and crushing enemies entirely and making them fear him.  And his legacy is both literally and figuratively shit (his corpse stinks and his political legacy is eating itself alive within months of his death).

Ned Stark is about respect.  About listening to vassals and those lower than himself, about teaching his kids that family matters, that compassion is important, that those who have less material wealth and influence aren't necessarily lesser beings.  And he has the entire political community of the North ready to rise up and "sup on another serving of grief and death" just to protect his legacy.