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US Politics: Wondering the Acosta


DMC

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9 hours ago, Jace, Basilissa said:

Which seats Democrats gonna pick up next year? Let's hear your analysis, Mr. Ex Post Facto. 

I'll make it easy and just give you Arizona and Colorado. Take me from there, please. But don't forget to take Alabama off the map.

Dems will be competitive in Maine, Kansas, North Carolina and Alabama if Moore wins the nomination. And depending on recruitment, could be competitive in Texas and Georgia.

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15 minutes ago, Triskele said:

Gaming this out a bit...would this suggest that the following scenarios could be true:

If Bernie loses big early it bolsters Biden a lot?

If Bernie doesn't folder early it keeps Biden from being able to separate?  

Does Harris need to go after Warren somehow like she went after Biden?

 

Speaking of that last one, anyone know off hand when and to what extent the debates are whittled down?  All of the sudden while it's still fairly wide open it would be very interesting to just have like 7-8 on one stage like these four plus Pete plus maybe Booker, Castro, O'Rourke, Klobuchar, Gillibrand, at most.  

ETA:  Jeebus even that's too many

Yeah, as much as I'd like it to be so, I do not think Biden is dead yet. Probably Warren and Harris should temporarily ally and make sure he is completely dead. Maybe lay down some torches like he is an AD&D troll or the Tarrasque. 

And if they do this then of course Bernie Sanders will have a chance to go for the throne. 

I think it is about down to those 4 though. Despite that guy having Kennedy-level charisma attribute.

And if you know America at all, you should definitely expect white supremacy and/or the patriarchy to rear its head at some point, even in a Democratic primary. It may not even be antipathy to a race or sex. It may just be voters thinking a white guy will win this for the party. 

Hey speaking of white guys, can't we get some Beto love in here?

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18 minutes ago, Triskele said:

Speaking of that last one, anyone know off hand when and to what extent the debates are whittled down?

The third debate in September will have stricter conditions.  I actually expect this field to be whittled quicker than the 2016 GOP field.  By Christmas I don't think there'll be more than 7-8 candidates, that's my bet.

As for the Bernie questions, Bernie will self-destruct.  He's never getting the nomination.  If the nation turns its lonely eyes to some old pathetic white man, it will be Biden.

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The next debate in Detroit will be a mess again with 20 candidates over two nights. The third debate in September will probably have a better number say half. You need 2% in four qualifying polls to make it on the stage in Houston. Most candidates will not do that. I expect the field to narrow after Detroit

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7 minutes ago, Triskele said:

I fully confess being an early fan, but it's fizzled.  I think the reason I was an early fan is that even before the Texas thing broke he sounded great on the radio a few times just going on NPR and stuff and I was like "who is this guy?"  And then when the Texas thing happened it felt like there was some Obama-esque lighting-in-a-bottle, but it doesn't feel like that today at all.  Assuming he doesn't have some miracle comeback here I pray he runs for Senate again to maximize pressure on the GOP to have to expend resources on defending the state.

I don't really apologize for the early enthusiasm though because we so badly need someone like Obama who can get like all the vote out.  Not sure I see it with anyone else just yet.  They all fit certain slots well but Obama kind of appealed to close to the maximum big tent.  

Well, as much as I just twisted the knife into Beto, we do owe him probably for House seats we won in Texas. There was definitely some trickle down if you will from his race. And he had pretty enormous fund-raising power. 

If there is an Obama-like figure in this race, it is almost certainly Buttigieg. My only real problem with him is he is only a mayor and not even of NYC. I would not be surprised if he was the first gay American President someday. 

 

 

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The real problem with Buttigieg is that he's stuck in Indiana. Winning any statewide office there will be a challenge. His best hope for advancement is a V.P. nomination or a juicy cabinet position if he can't get the big prize. A Trump reelection probably ends his political career.

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3 minutes ago, Freshwater Spartan said:

The real problem with Buttigieg is that he's stuck in Indiana. Winning any statewide office there will be a challenge. His best hope for advancement is a V.P. nomination or a juicy cabinet position if he can't get the big prize. A Trump reelection probably ends his political career.

Well I guess he could transplant to NYC or LA or something. HRC did it. He is young, so he has that going for him. I think he is immensely talented though, and that is just after seeing him in only one debate.

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18 minutes ago, Triskele said:

On topic, Nate's "tiers" right now.  He keeps Beto somewhere in the 3rd tier.  Have at it, you junkies.  

Or wait, did DMC or someone already post this very thing?  Internet time has been limited lately, incredibly.  

I read Silver's updated tiers but no, I didn't feel the need to post.  I agree with his analysis, exactly.  And I always hate it when that happens, so that's why I didn't link it.

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2 minutes ago, Triskele said:

but it seems like anyone in that tier has a puncher's chance of getting back into it

Definitely.  And Nate's tiers do a good job of identifying who those people most likely will be.

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I wouldn't say Inslee's lack of attention is necessarily because of his position - albeit it does seem that Senators can more easily gain traction than Governors these days, whereas it used to be the opposite.  And, hey, Inslee was an MC as well.  I don't think his CV has anything to do with his lack of traction.  People just don't care anymore.

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14 minutes ago, Triskele said:

Still feel like Inslee ought to be more of a contender.  Is everyone just full of shit when they say climate change is such a serious issue?  

And it's not like governor of a rich state hasn't traditionally been a good place to launch from.  Now it gets you no attention against a bunch of Senators, an almost Senator former House member, and a mayor.  

Well, he is my Governor and I do not really support him? Why? 

I think he is OK. I think he does not focus enough on economic inequality.  It is ridiculous that he does not focus on housing. Also, he is not that charismatic.

 

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25 minutes ago, Triskele said:

Is everyone just full of shit when they say climate change is such a serious issue?  

 

Yes. It's easy to make such a strong statement on an abstract until it's directly weighed against a more tangible consideration.

14 minutes ago, Triskele said:

Just occurred to me that O'Rourke's biggest problem is lacking what has Harris ascendant right now.  Fight.  

Even when Booker says I want to love everyone all the way to the White House there's passion in it.  Beto is chill to a fault at a time when the Dems want someone who will bring the fight to the enemy.  

That's a good read I think. I know you like him, but I think what you just described stems from a lack of conviction. He knows the right things to say, but he's a naked opportunist and not dedicated enough to the cause to do the right thing if it doesn't gratify him personally. This is his chance to break out of being a red state Democratic congressman and he's taking it.

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1 hour ago, Martell Spy said:

Well, as much as I just twisted the knife into Beto, we do owe him probably for House seats we won in Texas. There was definitely some trickle down if you will from his race. And he had pretty enormous fund-raising power. 

If there is an Obama-like figure in this race, it is almost certainly Buttigieg. My only real problem with him is he is only a mayor and not even of NYC. I would not be surprised if he was the first gay American President someday. 

 

 

It'll be an interesting race: how long can Buttigeig live vs how well the homophobic vote will hold up in the USA? Unless you believe Obama was the first, I do think there'll be a gay president before there's a Muslim one. Though I think if the Muslim candidate is gay they would have an improved chance of being elected.

I'm also unsure either will happen while the Electoral College is still a thing.

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Just now, Triskele said:

I take no offense at this nor do I debate it.  But I think this applies to many politicians and many of the Dems running.  So I think it's slightly unfair to peg O'Rourke with it.  Heh, I almost think he's more authentic by faking worse, lol. 

That's a fair charge to make against his competitors, but I have to point out as I did a few days back that I think Beto is spitting in the faces of people in Texas who looked to him as a potential leader by skip-hopping off of a loss towards the national stage.

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I think o'Rourke acts like he should just be given the potus and doesnt take it very seriously. His campaign and plan was the best example of procrastinating right before a midterm. Hes very charismatic and deeply lazy. 

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Another big problem for me with Beto is he has shown me exactly zero reason why I should vote for him.  Are there issues he's all over that no one else is?  Do I feel like he's likely to get shit done?  Does he seem like he can win?  Nope. Nope.  Nope.  

I also personally don't see the charisma, he can't pull off the Obama type big, general, positive statements without sounding full of shit or pandering.  Plus there is zero, and I mean zero, substance.  He's like a cipher of a politician.  He comes off, as Jace said as an opportunist, which is fine if he actually has goals, but the only goal seems to be to win, and there are at least 6 other candidates that seem more likely to do that.  

Run for Senate asshole.  Stay in your lane.  

Like, the only thing appealing about him is that he has a cool name and he ran a competitive Senate race as a Dem in Texas.  To me that shouldn't even put him in the top 100 candidates.

 

 

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5 hours ago, Kalbear said:

I think o'Rourke acts like he should just be given the potus and doesnt take it very seriously. His campaign and plan was the best example of procrastinating right before a midterm. Hes very charismatic and deeply lazy. 

I'm a pretty lazy guy.  But if I was about to run for president, would I live-tweet an entire vacation/road trip where I did absolutely nothing like Beto did?  No.  I don't think that's advisable.

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