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DMC

US Politics: Wondering the Acosta

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18 minutes ago, Triskele said:

Speaking of that last one, anyone know off hand when and to what extent the debates are whittled down?

The third debate in September will have stricter conditions.  I actually expect this field to be whittled quicker than the 2016 GOP field.  By Christmas I don't think there'll be more than 7-8 candidates, that's my bet.

As for the Bernie questions, Bernie will self-destruct.  He's never getting the nomination.  If the nation turns its lonely eyes to some old pathetic white man, it will be Biden.

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The next debate in Detroit will be a mess again with 20 candidates over two nights. The third debate in September will probably have a better number say half. You need 2% in four qualifying polls to make it on the stage in Houston. Most candidates will not do that. I expect the field to narrow after Detroit

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Triskele said:

I fully confess being an early fan, but it's fizzled.  I think the reason I was an early fan is that even before the Texas thing broke he sounded great on the radio a few times just going on NPR and stuff and I was like "who is this guy?"  And then when the Texas thing happened it felt like there was some Obama-esque lighting-in-a-bottle, but it doesn't feel like that today at all.  Assuming he doesn't have some miracle comeback here I pray he runs for Senate again to maximize pressure on the GOP to have to expend resources on defending the state.

I don't really apologize for the early enthusiasm though because we so badly need someone like Obama who can get like all the vote out.  Not sure I see it with anyone else just yet.  They all fit certain slots well but Obama kind of appealed to close to the maximum big tent.  

Well, as much as I just twisted the knife into Beto, we do owe him probably for House seats we won in Texas. There was definitely some trickle down if you will from his race. And he had pretty enormous fund-raising power. 

If there is an Obama-like figure in this race, it is almost certainly Buttigieg. My only real problem with him is he is only a mayor and not even of NYC. I would not be surprised if he was the first gay American President someday. 

 

 

Edited by Martell Spy

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2 minutes ago, Martell Spy said:

Well, as much as I just twisted the knife into Beto, we do owe him probably for House seats we won in Texas. 

No doubt.

On topic, Nate's "tiers" right now.  He keeps Beto somewhere in the 3rd tier.  Have at it, you junkies.  

Or wait, did DMC or someone already post this very thing?  Internet time has been limited lately, incredibly.  

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The real problem with Buttigieg is that he's stuck in Indiana. Winning any statewide office there will be a challenge. His best hope for advancement is a V.P. nomination or a juicy cabinet position if he can't get the big prize. A Trump reelection probably ends his political career.

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Freshwater Spartan said:

The real problem with Buttigieg is that he's stuck in Indiana. Winning any statewide office there will be a challenge. His best hope for advancement is a V.P. nomination or a juicy cabinet position if he can't get the big prize. A Trump reelection probably ends his political career.

Well I guess he could transplant to NYC or LA or something. HRC did it. He is young, so he has that going for him. I think he is immensely talented though, and that is just after seeing him in only one debate.

Edited by Martell Spy

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18 minutes ago, Triskele said:

On topic, Nate's "tiers" right now.  He keeps Beto somewhere in the 3rd tier.  Have at it, you junkies.  

Or wait, did DMC or someone already post this very thing?  Internet time has been limited lately, incredibly.  

I read Silver's updated tiers but no, I didn't feel the need to post.  I agree with his analysis, exactly.  And I always hate it when that happens, so that's why I didn't link it.

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Just now, DMC said:

I read Silver's updated tiers but no, I didn't feel the need to post.  I agree with his analysis, exactly.  And I always hate it when that happens, so that's why I didn't link it.

It seems like tier 3 is "has a prayer of a comeback but needs some wins pretty soon."  

Beto has to know about how badly that first one went, but at the same time, look at what it did for Harris.  Not to say I'm predicting a roaring comeback by him or anyone, but it seems like anyone in that tier has a puncher's chance of getting back into it especially while there's a top five that's relatively broadly based across those top tiers.  

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Triskele said:

but it seems like anyone in that tier has a puncher's chance of getting back into it

Definitely.  And Nate's tiers do a good job of identifying who those people most likely will be.

Edited by DMC
do instead of to

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Still feel like Inslee ought to be more of a contender.  Is everyone just full of shit when they say climate change is such a serious issue?  

And it's not like governor of a rich state hasn't traditionally been a good place to launch from.  Now it gets you no attention against a bunch of Senators, an almost Senator former House member, and a mayor.  

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Posted (edited)

I wouldn't say Inslee's lack of attention is necessarily because of his position - albeit it does seem that Senators can more easily gain traction than Governors these days, whereas it used to be the opposite.  And, hey, Inslee was an MC as well.  I don't think his CV has anything to do with his lack of traction.  People just don't care anymore.

Edited by DMC
opposite not former

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Just occurred to me that O'Rourke's biggest problem is lacking what has Harris ascendant right now.  Fight.  

Even when Booker says I want to love everyone all the way to the White House there's passion in it.  Beto is chill to a fault at a time when the Dems want someone who will bring the fight to the enemy.  

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Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, Triskele said:

Still feel like Inslee ought to be more of a contender.  Is everyone just full of shit when they say climate change is such a serious issue?  

And it's not like governor of a rich state hasn't traditionally been a good place to launch from.  Now it gets you no attention against a bunch of Senators, an almost Senator former House member, and a mayor.  

Well, he is my Governor and I do not really support him? Why? 

I think he is OK. I think he does not focus enough on economic inequality.  It is ridiculous that he does not focus on housing. Also, he is not that charismatic.

 

Edited by Martell Spy

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25 minutes ago, Triskele said:

Is everyone just full of shit when they say climate change is such a serious issue?  

 

Yes. It's easy to make such a strong statement on an abstract until it's directly weighed against a more tangible consideration.

14 minutes ago, Triskele said:

Just occurred to me that O'Rourke's biggest problem is lacking what has Harris ascendant right now.  Fight.  

Even when Booker says I want to love everyone all the way to the White House there's passion in it.  Beto is chill to a fault at a time when the Dems want someone who will bring the fight to the enemy.  

That's a good read I think. I know you like him, but I think what you just described stems from a lack of conviction. He knows the right things to say, but he's a naked opportunist and not dedicated enough to the cause to do the right thing if it doesn't gratify him personally. This is his chance to break out of being a red state Democratic congressman and he's taking it.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Martell Spy said:

Well, as much as I just twisted the knife into Beto, we do owe him probably for House seats we won in Texas. There was definitely some trickle down if you will from his race. And he had pretty enormous fund-raising power. 

If there is an Obama-like figure in this race, it is almost certainly Buttigieg. My only real problem with him is he is only a mayor and not even of NYC. I would not be surprised if he was the first gay American President someday. 

 

 

It'll be an interesting race: how long can Buttigeig live vs how well the homophobic vote will hold up in the USA? Unless you believe Obama was the first, I do think there'll be a gay president before there's a Muslim one. Though I think if the Muslim candidate is gay they would have an improved chance of being elected.

I'm also unsure either will happen while the Electoral College is still a thing.

Edited by The Anti-Targ

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6 minutes ago, Jace, Basilissa said:

That's a good read I think. I know you like him, but I think what you just described stems from a lack of conviction. He knows the right things to say, but he's a naked opportunist and not dedicated enough to the cause to do the right thing if it doesn't gratify him personally. This is his chance to break out of being a red state Democratic congressman and he's taking it.

I take no offense at this nor do I debate it.  But I think this applies to many politicians and many of the Dems running.  So I think it's slightly unfair to peg O'Rourke with it.  Heh, I almost think he's more authentic by faking worse, lol. 

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Just now, Triskele said:

I take no offense at this nor do I debate it.  But I think this applies to many politicians and many of the Dems running.  So I think it's slightly unfair to peg O'Rourke with it.  Heh, I almost think he's more authentic by faking worse, lol. 

That's a fair charge to make against his competitors, but I have to point out as I did a few days back that I think Beto is spitting in the faces of people in Texas who looked to him as a potential leader by skip-hopping off of a loss towards the national stage.

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2 minutes ago, Jace, Basilissa said:

That's a fair charge to make against his competitors, but I have to point out as I did a few days back that I think Beto is spitting in the faces of people in Texas who looked to him as a potential leader by skip-hopping off of a loss towards the national stage.

I definitely wish he'd drop out and run again in Texas and make Cornyn squirm.  

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I think o'Rourke acts like he should just be given the potus and doesnt take it very seriously. His campaign and plan was the best example of procrastinating right before a midterm. Hes very charismatic and deeply lazy. 

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5 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

I think o'Rourke acts like he should just be given the potus and doesnt take it very seriously. His campaign and plan was the best example of procrastinating right before a midterm. Hes very charismatic and deeply lazy. 

Or more precisely, he's lazy in a particularly problematic way.

It wasn't like he didn't hit the trail during that Senate run.  But he obviously does not do enough homework for the show that he's trying to join now.  

His Senate run entitled him.  

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