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Football: Steve the Bruce King of Geordies

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So, will this Sane to Bayern sage actually happen now?

Rumoredly Bayern have tabled an official first bid. And Kovac was pretty much on the offensive wrt to that transfer.

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The Telegraph reported that City have put a hefty £137m price tag on Sane. They could negotiate that down a bit but I expect it would still be well north of £100m. Bayern's net spend so far is around €84m so they should have no issues forking over that kind of money if Sane is deemed as integral. 

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Yes, they could.

However, the 100m is still a bit of a psychological barrier. They are not Madrid, United, Barca, or PSG who could/would casually throw 100m around. Bear in mind, Hoeneß, has been in charge of the club since the late 1970s (1978 I think, after an injury cut his playing career short) - he will rumoreldy retire in October, tho. Anyway, the point is, he also remembers the days, when spending 1m, and later on 10m were real big money on the transfer market. So spending that kinda money probably makes them feel a weeee bit uncomfortable.

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Yeah, it seems unlikely that this transfer happens. I guess it depends on how badly the Bayern board feel they need Sane. It's also worth taking into account that Bayern had to trigger the buyout clause for Hernandez which meant paying €80m in one lump sum. 

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Like I said, Kovac sounded extremely optimistic, and with Dortmund's shopping spree there's some pressure on the Hoeneß and Rumpelzicke, eh Rummenigge, to do something to strengthen their offense. Thus far they've signed Pavard and Hernandez, which are defenders. With Ribery and Robben gone, there's now a real need to add some quality winger. Coman picked up another injury during their pre-season Audi-Cup shizzle. Hoeneß is a weeeeee bit prone to vanity, so him gifting the Bayern supporters Sane would not be out of character (despite the 100m making them baulk heavily). Him bowing out, while they are trailing Dortmund, with Bayern having missed out on Sane must be the stuff f nightmares for him. As the peasents already dared to speak up against his highness during the club's general meeting last year.

My guess is, they will put a limit on what they are willing to spend, which is a bit north of the 100m €. Something between 110-120m € would be my guess, of what they are willing to cough up. 140m would indeed be too much.

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Bayern are in an odd situation.  They had such dominance in the Bundesliga for so long and they raided their closest competitor for their best players to keep it so.  But they've stagnated and reached the end of the current generation.  And they weren't especially competitive in the CL anyway for several years -- just one trophy in the past 18 years, and even then it helped to face Dortmund in the final.  Even with Pep as a manager.  (they went pretty deep in the CL most years, but always being in Pot 1 makes that easy to achieve).

Until this summer, they hadn't really participated in the post-Neymar inflated transfer market.  They acquired Ribery, Robben, Lewandowski, etc for what now look like relative bargains.  So if their primary goal is to keep winning Bundesligas, then that might require only moderate spending, and they could even take a chance on some youth players just like Dortmund did.  But if they want to really challenge for a CL, then they would need a lot more.

If another $50m is enough to feel highly likely of retaining the Bundesliga, but $300m+ would be need to really challenge for the CL, then there isn't a lot of value in going for somewhere in the middle.  This was the same situation faced by Juventus and PSG, who both decided to make the really big investment in pursuit of the CL (and even then they didn't come any closer).  No point in spending an extra $100m to win your domestic league by 15 points instead of 5.

It's also similar to PL clubs deciding whether to aim for top 4 or go all in to challenge City for the title.  Most of them will decide that there isn't really that much value to 2nd or 3rd spot compared to 4th, so they're doing just enough to stay competitive for top 4.

There can always be other factors, like the ego of a club president or the need to appease fans who are tired of stagnation (looking at you, Arsenal), but Bayern don't really need to throw huge money at the problem all in this window.  They could just build over a couple of seasons.

 

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Agresti reporting that United and Juve are negotiating for Mandzukic as well. Also mentioned that City and Juve are still far apart in their valuations for Cancelo and Danilo. 

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Is Ronaldo driving all of the attackers out of Juve so he can have all of the goals to himself or what!?! Kean going to Everton, and Mandzukic and Dybala potentially too?

Mind you, with all of the midfielders they've been acquiring, perhaps 4-5-1 is the way to go!

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13 hours ago, Iskaral Pust said:

If another $50m is enough to feel highly likely of retaining the Bundesliga, but $300m+ would be need to really challenge for the CL, then there isn't a lot of value in going for somewhere in the middle.  This was the same situation faced by Juventus and PSG, who both decided to make the really big investment in pursuit of the CL (and even then they didn't come any closer).  No point in spending an extra $100m to win your domestic league by 15 points instead of 5.

That ignores the self-image Bayern and their supporters have of their club. They see themselves as a major force in European football, thus the CL is/has to be their ultimate goal. So of course all the spending has to measure up to that standard. The squad itself is not as bad as you made it sound. There are two holes for them to patch up imho. They need another quality winger (likesay Sane) and they need another quality forward (probably Werner) as they right now only have Lewandowski. Otherwise the squad is good to very good, depending on Neuer's health. Werner's contract in Leipzig runs out next year, so they are not willing to pay up to 70m or whatever Leipzig is demanding for a player they can/will get on a free transfer next year (yes, I assume they reached a general agreement with the player).

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Posted (edited)

John Percy and Sam Wallace reporting in The Telegraph that United have reached an agreement with Leicester for Maguire worth £85m. Leicester must be laughing all they way to the bank. 

Edited by Consigliere

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Yeah, that a lot. 

Maguire's a good player and I know a lot of people said the same about Van Dijk but I'm dubious Maguire going to turn out to be quite the same transformative figure Van Dijk proved to be. I'm still not quite sure why there seems to be no interest in the relatively affordable Alderwierald. 

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Imo, Maguire is at the level of a player like Manolas but has cost 3x as much. As I said before, it looked like our plan for a CB boiled down to Maguire or bust so it isn't surprising that we've got rinsed a world record fee for an above average player. We have more money than sense. 

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Meanwhile, I will be on my way to the stadium for the first home game of the season.

I am not overly optimistic for this season. But you gotta do, what you gotta do.

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Posted (edited)

Seven if you also include Tuanzebe. We need to sell a couple at least but our board's incompetence at dealing with contracts has left us in a position where we are struggling to offload players. 

I'm not too keen on this Dybala deal either. It's looking increasingly like Dybala really doesn't want to leave Juve but is being forced out by the club. We are going to end up with a mopey player on £350k/week putting in half arsed performances. Woodward will never learn. 

Edited by Consigliere

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Consigliere said:

Seven if you also include Tuanzebe. We need to sell a couple at least but our board's incompetence at dealing with contracts has left us in a position where we are struggling to offload players. 

I'm not too keen on this Dybala deal either. It's looking increasingly like Dybala really doesn't want to leave Juve but is being forced out by the club. We are going to end up with a mopey player on £350k/week putting in half arsed performances. Woodward will never learn. 

On CBs: I can see Tuanzebe being loaned again, Bailly is injured as always and perhaps Rojo's gonna be more a back up at LB than a CB... so it only leaves our iconic fellas of Jones & Smalling as back up CBs. One of the last three has to leave though.

On Dybala: the new Di Maria /Alexis. It's written all over the place. Woodward just want shirt sales.

Edited by Ser Glendon Fireball

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19 minutes ago, Ser Glendon Fireball said:

On CBs: I can see Tuanzebe being loaned again, Bailly is injured as always and perhaps Rojo's gonna be more a back up at LB than a CB... so it only leaves our iconic fellas of Jones & Smalling as back up CBs. One of the last three has to leave though.

On Dybala: the new Di Maria /Alexis. It's written all over the place. Woodward just want shirt sales.

I'd be surprised if Tuanzebe is going to be loaned out - Solskjaer has preferred using mainly Lindelof, Jones and Tuanzebe at CB in pre season. He's already much better than Rojo and a better passer than Smalling, Jones and Rojo. Young is our backup LB and Dalot has played a fair number of games at LB too. I'd say Rojo and Bailly would be at the top of the transfer list. Smalling and Jones will stay because they are English and United like to pad the homegrown quota. 

 

Quote

Woodward just want shirt sales.

Most definitely. Dybala is sponsored by Adidas as well (our main shirt sponsor) and so is Pogba. Woodward is probably salivating at the marketing potential. LVG was right when he said that the higher ups at United don't give a shit about football and only care about commercial activities. 

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I gave in and purchased a copy of FM19.  My wife and son are out of town for a few days, so this is the time experiment with a time-consuming game. 

It’s so dull.  So much data but too difficult to actually do anything you want, like find cheap talent (I tried starting as Sunderland in League 1).  The fun part of the original CM games was scouring the globe for undiscovered young players.

That was $50 wasted but at least I won’t waste anymore time on it. 

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And the game was sitty, as expected.

Started off, with our captain injuring himself in the middle of the pitch, game continued, while he was lieing there on the ground, they scored - one cb less to defend basically. He possibly suffered a fracture.

Their second was ruled off after VAR interference. But then they scored another regular goal anyway. Quite poor defending.

Got one goal back before half-time.

Couple of good chances, But somehow either the goalkeeper, woodwork or narrow misses prevented the equalizer.

Then came their third - nice goal admittedly. And that was basically curtains.  The attacking movements in the final third looked ok, but the defending was criminal.

This is gonna be a long season. :rolleyes:

2 hours ago, Iskaral Pust said:

It’s so dull.  So much data but too difficult to actually do anything you want, like find cheap talent (I tried starting as Sunderland in League 1).  The fun part of the original CM games was scouring the globe for undiscovered young players. 

Depends. I found it more rewarding to get young players thru the clubs' own youth systems. Something the old CM games lacked (I mean CM2 (my first game from the series) had one serious problem, you basically had to look for aging players about to retire, and once they were gone, the newgen with Maradona's values was automatically on your shortlist - it did not even have real value progression apart from them losing pace starting age 34 iirc). Anyway back to FM. The first few seasons were always a bit meh. Deciding what kinda football I want to play, and recruiting players accordingly (who also make somewhat decent tutors (determination!!)), and also getting the backroom stuff sorted out. I remember one save (FM 14), where I started from scrap at a third tier team, fought my way to the top flight (almost getting sacked along the way, because those low tier clubs are a pain on the revenue side, it got better after winning the first promotion). Then I was poached by one of the Istanbul clubs (Besiktas I think), the team was struggling to meet expectations with a financial problems (and a different footballing philosophy; started with possession football at my first club, to direct counter attacking at Besiktas) but the potential to actually win something, then I moved on after 3 seasons or so (and sorting out the club), to Feyenoord (direct attacking football, a tasty academy and a first team squad filled with younger players), and then I was approached by Barca and somehow lost interest in the safe. I know there are better war stories in the FM world out there, like winning the CL with scandinavian teams - and getting your best players poached by richer clubs.

Otherwise FM has always been a huge tablebase calculation. Excel football if you will.

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Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, Consigliere said:

Most definitely. Dybala is sponsored by Adidas as well (our main shirt sponsor) and so is Pogba. Woodward is probably salivating at the marketing potential. LVG was right when he said that the higher ups at United don't give a shit about football and only care about commercial activities. 

The big question is when the football starts impacting the commercial activities. To some extent United can trade on the Ferguson era but once that gets further and further away and the chances of success diminish, United may become a China-Lite - a place where footballers get paid a lot and paraded around as marketing ponies, but properly ambitious footballers don't go there. To be sure, United still plays in the EPL so the China League metaphor is hyperbole, but you know what I mean...

Edited by Jeor

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