Tennis Volume 8: Is a FedEx delivery coming?

[ljkeane]

Wimbledon cancelled for this year.

[polishgenius]

No, Novak! Bad Novak!

[Jeor]

12 hours ago, polishgenius said:

No, Novak! Bad Novak!

Hah! Oh dear.

Good on Wimbledon for having pandemic insurance, by the way. Supposedly they got it after SARS, but it cost 2m per year so that would have taken some guts to keep on paying 17 years later. Now they'll claim something like 150m back so it definitely paid off.

US Open in August still has to be pretty dicey and I don't know what the delayed French is going to look like either. In some ways, I wouldn't mind if the French Open got stuffed because it was a pretty dick move to change the timing and run roughshod over the rest of the ATP calendar like that.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

1 hour ago, Jeor said:

US Open in August still has to be pretty dicey and I don't know what the delayed French is going to look like either. In some ways, I wouldn't mind if the French Open got stuffed because it was a pretty dick move to change the timing and run roughshod over the rest of the ATP calendar like that.

Probably doubtful, given the location. 

I get a bit annoyed hearing people say you can play tennis during these conditions. It's like they forget all the different people that touch the balls outside of the players. I think we need to accept that sports are probably just done in 2020.

Outside of MMA. I'm having a good laugh at the idea of putting them all on an island. Shit, they could just create a live version of Enter the Dragon. 

[Jeor]

3 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

I think we need to accept that sports are probably just done in 2020.

Yes, I think realistically tennis is more or less done. It's not a contact sport, but the balls are touched by everybody and playing behind closed doors is not as viable given that, outside of the Grand Slams, the broadcasting or TV rights for tennis aren't as lucrative as other sports. I hear pretty much all the tournaments that aren't Slams or Masters series are basically lucky to make any money, and any that they do is basically off the back of sponsors.

This lost year is a shame for Serena and Fed, who basically couldn't afford to lose another year in terms of their Grand Slam count. On the other hand, it might give them time to regroup and recover for one final run at Slams in 2021, but I think at their age it's harder to get yourself going again.

 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

8 minutes ago, Jeor said:

Yes, I think realistically tennis is more or less done. It's not a contact sport, but the balls are touched by everybody and playing behind closed doors is not as viable given that, outside of the Grand Slams, the broadcasting or TV rights for tennis aren't as lucrative as other sports. I hear pretty much all the tournaments that aren't Slams or Masters series are basically lucky to make any money, and any that they do is basically off the back of sponsors.

I've always found the financing around sports like golf and tennis to be fascinating. Like if you gave me the ground floor pitch, I'd think they'd fail, but they do benefit from being "affluent" sports. 

I am an American though, and outside of the hardcore fans, we really just watch the Slams. I can't even find most events on T.V., so it's nice when flipping through the channels to stumble on a good match.
 

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This lost year is a shame for Serena and Fed, who basically couldn't afford to lose another year in terms of their Grand Slam count. On the other hand, it might give them time to regroup and recover for one final run at Slams in 2021, but I think at their age it's harder to get yourself going again.

As a fan, I'm resigned to accepting Serena isn't breaking the record. Maybe she can tie it, but she just looks so flat in the Finals, and her serve is gone. She probably needs her opponents to beat themselves at this point. 

Feds, idk. I still feel like with a great draw he can sneak one through again, and his style of play was always going to age gracefully. Nadal was the one I expected to have a shorter reign. He got me into tennis even more than Serena, so it's been nice to see him have a real second wind. 

[Jeor]

4 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

I've always found the financing around sports like golf and tennis to be fascinating. Like if you gave me the ground floor pitch, I'd think they'd fail, but they do benefit from being "affluent" sports.

Yeah, the economics of sports like tennis are really interesting. There's no real centralised league (ATP and PGA tours notwithstanding), just a bunch of independent tournaments with some majors/Slams thrown in. Both sports work well on TV but have nowhere near the amount of revenue that team/league sports like NFL, EPL etc get. From a player's perspective, outside of the top 100 it's really hard to make a living, too. Initially, prizemoney gets you in with a chance, but individual sponsorships are how the players really make their money. As you say, there's just something about them being viewed as "affluent" sports that somehow keeps them in the mix as global sports.

I think golf and tennis also benefit from being casual sports with low entry barriers. League sports involve following a team over the course of a season, individual games don't mean much and the payoff takes a long time. Whereas in tennis and golf, people can happily tune into the Slams and majors, and the short, finite timespan of tournaments (a long weekend for a major, a couple of weeks for a Slam) means that fans get a quick payoff without having to make the investment of following a team over a longer period of time.

American sports have tried a hybrid of those models - I think the postseason playoffs of many leagues are designed to try and cast a wider net than the diehard fans.

19 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Feds, idk. I still feel like with a great draw he can sneak one through again, and his style of play was always going to age gracefully. Nadal was the one I expected to have a shorter reign. He got me into tennis even more than Serena, so it's been nice to see him have a real second wind.

Yeah, I think Serena's cooked. I've not been a fan of hers so I don't find that particularly disappointing...

But Federer I also thought had a shot at maybe one more, with Wimbledon always being his best bet. I'm surprised (and impressed) that Nadal and Djokovic have kept going with their more punishing styles of tennis, I would have expected both of them to go the way of poor Andy Murray by now.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

15 minutes ago, Jeor said:

I think golf and tennis also benefit from being casual sports with low entry barriers. League sports involve following a team over the course of a season, individual games don't mean much and the payoff takes a long time. Whereas in tennis and golf, people can happily tune into the Slams and majors, and the short, finite timespan of tournaments (a long weekend for a major, a couple of weeks for a Slam) means that fans get a quick payoff without having to make the investment of following a team over a longer period of time.

American sports have tried a hybrid of those models - I think the postseason playoffs of many leagues are designed to try and cast a wider net than the diehard fans.

That's an interesting sport, but I'd boil it down even more than that. I think most casual fans just watch the Finals for the Slams and the last few hours of the Majors. I know that's what I do for the latter, but I've always enjoyed playing golf over watching it. I do try and watch a lot of matches for the Slams though, but time zone differences make that hard.

But to juxtapose that with popular American sports, football at both levels has stakes for every game. It's what it makes it unique, even from a sport like soccer. Most people tune out the regular seasons for baseball and basketball though, and with basketball there are usually only a few teams people want to watch.

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But Federer I also thought had a shot at maybe one more, with Wimbledon always being his best bet. I'm surprised (and impressed) that Nadal and Djokovic have kept going with their more punishing styles of tennis, I would have expected both of them to go the way of poor Andy Murray by now.

Nadal is more surprising. I'm sure a more learned tennis fan could offer other examples, but personally I've never seen a player work harder than Nadal. Every point is a battle with him when he's on, and that seems to be more so than ever because I think his serve has also fallen off.

I actually think Djoker's game will still age well for a few more years. His power is going too, but the guy is just a cyborg. Even when he's totally beating himself, he snaps out of it and comes back. I do believe he's the most complete player of the big three, but I don't think he's greater than either Nadal or Feds. 

[baxus]

19 hours ago, polishgenius said:

No, Novak! Bad Novak!

To be honest, "I wouldn't want to be forced by someone to take a vaccine" is not the same as being an anti-vaxxer. He does say he's not supporting vaccination, but it seems likely that's limited to corona virus vaccine. Let's be honest, it would hardly be the first time famous person's statements were presented out of context.

If this vaccine would be a prerequisite for continuing sports, it would definitely be very rushed and not as thoroughly tested and approved as other vaccines are. I'm very pro-vaccines but wouldn't take a vaccine like that and fully support others in not taking it.

Don't get me wrong, Djokovic has some beliefs and ideas that are quite a bit out there by my standards, and his wife is even worse. They might be anti-vaxxers but I don't think we have enough data in this article to label him one.

And obviously, being in a position he's in, with his statements reaching millions of people, he needs to pay closer attention to what he's saying.

[BigFatCoward]

6 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

Probably doubtful, given the location. 

I get a bit annoyed hearing people say you can play tennis during these conditions. It's like they forget all the different people that touch the balls outside of the players. I think we need to accept that sports are probably just done in 2020.

Outside of MMA. I'm having a good laugh at the idea of putting them all on an island. Shit, they could just create a live version of Enter the Dragon. 

Tennis is the perfect sport to start up again, you are always 2 metres away from everyone else, and a plastic scoop for the ball boys to pick and flip down the court would solve that problem.

or even a long slow channel around the outside of the court to move the balls down each end.  its not a problem i see being overly taxing to resolve. 

[Jeor]

There may well be some solutions to the whole tennis in the COVID-19 era, but they'll have to be pretty convincing for all the players. Anti-vaxxer or not, Djokovic is probably also speaking from the point of view of an elite sportsperson who wants to be careful about what things go into his body. That's not to excuse his comments, as I think everyone should be encouraged to undergo vaccination (not just coronavirus).

A lot of lower-level players will be keen to return to the sport (after all, if they don't play, they don't get paid) and they won't care about playing behind closed doors, but I think some of the more established players won't be as eager.

Finances will also be an issue with a restart. I get the sense that a lot of tournaments don't make very much money and are done on razor-thin margins, and as I said earlier I think I read that sponsorships are really the lifeblood of a tennis tournament. I can imagine in this era there wouldn't be very many companies keen to tip sponsorship money into a tournament that will have limited (if any) attendance.

And let's face it, if some tournaments end up failing, that's not necessarily a bad thing. The ATP Tour has never really had much of an offseason - between the year-end championships and the warm-up tournaments to the Australian Open is basically only the month of December, and maybe the odd Davis Cup round if you don't happen to play for a competing country. A mid-season break might be on the cards if the tour has the opportunity to be reshaped.

[ljkeane]

I think the problem with tennis wouldn’t necessarily be staging the events, assuming there isn’t a crowd, it’s all the international travel required.

[Jeor]

19 minutes ago, ljkeane said:

I think the problem with tennis wouldn’t necessarily be staging the events, assuming there isn’t a crowd, it’s all the international travel required.

Ah yes. I missed the biggest problem of them all!

I do feel for the lower ranked tennis players though. In team sports etc, at least there is a team, league and other structures to (notionally) take care of you, pay you even part of a salary, etc. But in a sport like tennis, when it shuts down you are really all on your own.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

3 hours ago, BigFatCoward said:

Tennis is the perfect sport to start up again, you are always 2 metres away from everyone else, and a plastic scoop for the ball boys to pick and flip down the court would solve that problem.

or even a long slow channel around the outside of the court to move the balls down each end.  its not a problem i see being overly taxing to resolve. 

It would be so impractical, and the whole six feet thing doesn't matter if it lives on surfaces for prolonged periods of time. Without quick, accurate testing, sports cannot come back outside of maybe golf. And crowds can't return until there is a vaccine. 
 

37 minutes ago, ljkeane said:

I think the problem with tennis wouldn’t necessarily be staging the events, assuming there isn’t a crowd, it’s all the international travel required.

They wouldn't travel. You get everyone to one city after they've been tested, quarantine everyone and then maybe you can make something work. But this is all moot until we can get fast, accurate tests.

[ljkeane]

8 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

They wouldn't travel. You get everyone to one city after they've been tested, quarantine everyone and then maybe you can make something work.

What would be the point of that? The tours are all made of a series of independent events so it's not much use to all the others if they hold one of them. On top of that unlike a lot of sports leagues all of the players probably aren't currently sat at home in the same country as where the event would be held. They'd have to travel from all over the world to get there in the first place, which depending on travel restrictions might not be feasible.

[baxus]

12 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

And crowds can't return until there is a vaccine.

That would basically mean there'd be no sports for a couple of years until the vaccine gets through the system properly. We just know that's not going to happen so it leaves us with either allowing crowds before vaccine or rushing the vaccine.

[ljkeane]

16 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Without quick, accurate testing, sports cannot come back outside of maybe golf. And crowds can't return until there is a vaccine.

Just on this you don't necessarily have to test people. You just have to have effective quarantine procedures. The problem with this is all the players and everyone they're going to come into contact with would have to stay in quarantine for the duration of the tournament you're holding.

It probably wouldn't work for tennis with all the travel. You might be able to finish out the football seasons in Europe doing it but it wouldn't be a fun couple of months for those involved.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

27 minutes ago, ljkeane said:

What would be the point of that? The tours are all made of a series of independent events so it's not much use to all the others if they hold one of them. On top of that unlike a lot of sports leagues all of the players probably aren't currently sat at home in the same country as where the event would be held. They'd have to travel from all over the world to get there in the first place, which depending on travel restrictions might not be feasible.

They'd just have to hold each event at the same place. There's no way they can travel around after they initially assemble. 

27 minutes ago, baxus said:

That would basically mean there'd be no sports for a couple of years until the vaccine gets through the system properly. We just know that's not going to happen so it leaves us with either allowing crowds before vaccine or rushing the vaccine.

No, sports can come back a lot quicker than. Having fans will take a fair bit of time, though. 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

20 minutes ago, ljkeane said:

Just on this you don't necessarily have to test people. You just have to have effective quarantine procedures. The problem with this is all the players and everyone they're going to come into contact with would have to stay in quarantine for the duration of the tournament you're holding.

It probably wouldn't work for tennis with all the travel. You might be able to finish out the football seasons in Europe doing it but it wouldn't be a fun couple of months for those involved.

I think the best short term hope is actually basketball in Vegas. The empty hotels could hold the players and their families, and assuming everyone is in the clear, the guys not playing and their families could play the role of the fans to create a better atmosphere. 

[Jeor]

12 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

They'd just have to hold each event at the same place. There's no way they can travel around after they initially assemble.

I don't think holding tennis events all at the same place is workable. All of the tennis tournaments around the world are independently owned and operated events. Larry Ellison owns the Indian Wells Masters, for instance.

The ATP Tour is really a loose confederation of events, dealing with ranking points, certification and standards. Most people probably aren't even aware that the ATP does not have anything to do with the Grand Slams; they're run by the ITF (International Tennis Federation), a separate body, and it just so happens that the ATP partners with them to include the events in their calendar and give them ranking points.

In this sort of environment I don't think the ATP has the wherewithal to take control and run their own tournaments in a single place over and over.