Tactical Overview: Golden Company

[Lord Varys]

10 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Yeah, I'm not saying it's definitely Rowan or Tarly, but whoever it is, Peake at least seems to think it will be significant. So when sizing up the relative strengths of GC and House Tyrell at Storm's End, it would be wise to keep in mind that the allegiances as they are now might not be the same when the battle is joined. Even a relatively small number of troops can turn the tide if they are implemented in the right way at the right time.

Laswell should think about his cousin (?) Lord Titus - who, as husband to Margot Lannister, might also have some ties/weight in the West - and, in my opinion, the Merryweathers since Orton and/or his late father could have fought with the Golden Company during their exile. There is an actual possibility for a camaraderie connection there - whereas the idea that some random officers in the Golden Company actually have close connections with significant lords in the Reach they are not related to is not all that likely. It would be more likely if the last proper Blackfyre invasion of Westeros hadn't happened back in 236 AC. All men fighting in that war on either side should long be dead and forgotten.

10 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

It could very well be that Mace himself will support Aegon. If it becomes widely accepted after Cersei's trial that Tommen is illegitimate, then marrying Margy to him would be of dubious benefit even if Cersei prevails in the eventual TBC. So he might see a better opportunity in Aegon and a possible betrothal to the new king on the Iron Throne.

If Tommen/Myrcella were to be declared illegitimate - or if Margaery or Tommen were to die - before the Tyrell army faces Aegon Mace's motivation to fight against Aegon at all would drop considerably. He himself could not lay claim to the throne, so an alliance with Aegon would look rather promising.

If his army faced and defeated Aegon before such things happened, besieging him in Storm's End, then actually trying to usurp the Iron Throne himself - or by backing some obscure Targaryen-Baratheon cousin as figurehead - might look like a better idea. However, I don't think such a scenario is very likely.

In the long run the Tyrells should understand that to continue to back the lion is a bad idea. If Mace doesn't realize this then Willas and Garlan definitely will. And they aren't involved in the KL situation. Even if Mace fought against Aegon and lost - a Lord Willas could still easily declare for Aegon.

[Aldarion]

4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Oh, actually everybody seems to be knowing that Randyll Tarly is the hero of Ashford. His victory there is the reason why he is seen as 'the finest soldier of the Realm'. There is no indication that Tarly suffers or broods over the fact that Mace claims or pretends he won the victory at Ashford. He is not like Stannis, who complains all day long that he is not Lord of Storm's End, he knows what he can do, and everybody else does, too, it seems. In that sense, there is no reason to suspect that the man feels slighted.

And there was certainly reward for the victory at Ashford, especially not after King Robert sat on the Iron Throne.

And Tarly certainly reaped rewards for his role at the Blackwater and at Duskendale and Maidenpool. And by the time of the Epilogue he reaped even another reward - the office of Master of Laws.

Thanks. But then again, fact that everybody who matters knows doesn't mean popular opinion is the same.

4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

This certainly is a possibility. How likely it is is going to depend on the KL situation and how things with the queens and the Faith, etc. unfold there. Is Mace also going to command the troops if his daughter is not yet safe or the situation in the capital uncertain? I don't know. Is a scenario imaginable in which Mace and Tarly would both command the army marching against Storm's End? Certainly, although that would be utter stupidity considering that it would weaken the Tyrell position in KL.

Yeah. But I believe that Mace's "fabled military skill" - or rather his belief that he has it - is there for a reason. So what better than to have Mace lead troops against GC? And victory there would allow Aegon to actually look like a good horse to back.

4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

As per the sample chapters 

  Reveal hidden contents

Doran actually left that decision completely to Arianne. He gave her authority and the necessary codes to authorize the army commanders in the passes to either start the war or remain where they are. She certainly might first correspond with her father to ask for his advice - and she certainly would be informing him of her decision - but as things stand she doesn't have to do that. She can decide on her own what the Dornish armies are going to do.

 

In that case, I very much doubt that GC will need to be defeated for Martells to join them. In fact, victory will avail them more, because Arianne will then see them as a way to get revenge at Lannisters. And that - plus the fact that Arianne will likely fall in love with Aegon (Martin emphasized Aegon's good looks for a reason, I think) - will likely see Dorne siding with Aegon.

14 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

It could very well be that Mace himself will support Aegon. If it becomes widely accepted after Cersei's trial that Tommen is illegitimate, then marrying Margy to him would be of dubious benefit even if Cersei prevails in the eventual TBC. So he might see a better opportunity in Aegon and a possible betrothal to the new king on the Iron Throne.

Yeah, that is definitely a possibility as well.

[Lord Varys]

8 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Thanks. But then again, fact that everybody who matters knows doesn't mean popular opinion is the same.

Popular opinion really sees Tarly as a great soldier and commander. Not just because of Ashford - which happened a long time ago - but also due to his victory at Duskendale and his subsequent pacification of Maidenpool and how he dealt with outlaws.

It really looks as if the only guy who thinks he is a great general is Mace himself - the men around him and Westeros at large know that Tarly is the real deal.

8 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Yeah. But I believe that Mace's "fabled military skill" - or rather his belief that he has it - is there for a reason. So what better than to have Mace lead troops against GC? And victory there would allow Aegon to actually look like a good horse to back.

Sure, it is a not unlikely possibility.

8 hours ago, Aldarion said:

In that case, I very much doubt that GC will need to be defeated for Martells to join them. In fact, victory will avail them more, because Arianne will then see them as a way to get revenge at Lannisters. And that - plus the fact that Arianne will likely fall in love with Aegon (Martin emphasized Aegon's good looks for a reason, I think) - will likely see Dorne siding with Aegon.

Actually, I'm more inclined to believe Aegon might fall for Arianne. She is a very good seductress and actually one of the most beautiful women in the entire series, at least according to George. Arianne herself clearly regrets that she couldn't marry Viserys III, a guy she already starts to idealize in her mind. Chances are pretty high that she will see Aegon as her means to become queen after all, and to get her father and Dorne the revenge they crave.

Arianne doesn't really have to delude herself into believing Aegon is the real deal to make use of him. But one certainly could imagine her convincing herself that Aegon is the real deal after she realizes that the Quentyn plan is never going to work.

[Lost Melnibonean]

On 7/13/2019 at 3:09 PM, Aldarion said:

First to see the composition. It has 10 000 men in total, including:

•  1 000 bowmen under Black Balaq
  • 300 crossbows
  • 300 reflex bows
  • 300 yew longbows
  • 50 goldenheart longbows
• 500 hundred knights (3 horses each)
• 500 squires (1 horse each)
• 12 elephants
• if the rest are heavy infantry, this means 8 000 infantry

Golden Company's camp, described in ADWD, is of particular importance: it is described as compact, orderly and defensible, with a ditch dug around it, and tents in orderly rows with broad avenues. This is important because it shows that Golden Company is not just words: they truly are a competent, professional force. Camp is extraordinarily important. When Mongols / Tatars attacked Hungary in 1241., king Bela IV led an army of 65 000 soldiers against them. But he was an incompetent commander, and his army not well versed: camp was dense, with insufficient space between the tents, so that men tripped over tent ropes. When Mongols surrounded the camp, army was slaughtered - only Croatian and Italian troops as well as Templars managed to respond to the attack; everybody else ran away. The lesson of this is: show me how your army encamps, and I will tell you how good an army is. Only truly good armies - such as Roman / Byzantine armies - had camps as that described for Golden Company.

Another important point are elephants. Alexander the Great had problems since his horses would not willingly face Indian elephants. This makes Golden Company's elephants into a hard counter against favourite Westerosi tactic: cavalry charge, as horses have innate fear of elephants (it is the smell).

For these reasons, I believe that battle between Golden Company and the Reach army may end up being not a replay of Battle of Agincourt, but rather a combination of Agincourt and Trebia. At Trebia, Hannibal had 21 000 heavy infantry, 8 000 light infantry, 11 000 cavalry and 37 war elephants. Cutting numbers in third results in 7 000 heavy infantry, 2 000 light infantry, 4 000 cavalry and 12 elephants - close, but not equal to Golden Company. In the battle, Romans allowed themselves to be provoked in a frontal assault, much like French at Agincourt.  Hannibal however placed an ambush, which attacked from behind once Romans had committed.

Before the battle, Hannibal had strenghtened the flanks with cavalry and elephants. When armies engaged, Hannibal's cavalry and elephants sweeped Roman cavalry from the field, leaving infantry exposed. Soon after, Magos attacked Roman infantry from the rear, which then broke ranks.

Analysis from Wikipedia:

Three great errors Sempronius committed, of which every one deserved to be recompensed with the loss that followed. The first was, that he fought with Hannibal in a champain, being by far inferior in horse, and withal thereby subject to the African elephants, which in enclosed or uneven grounds, and woodlands, would have been of no use. His second error was, that he made no discovery of the place upon which he fought, whereby he was grossly overreached, and ensnared, by the ambush which Hannibal had laid for him. The third was, that he drenched his footmen with empty stomachs, in the river of Trebia, even in a most cold and frosty day, whereby in effect they lost the use of their limbs.

At Agincourt, for comparison, French cavalry charge was provoked - and then devastated - by English longbowmen. Retreating, panicked cavalry then scattered French infantrymen. French men-at-arms had proven nearly immune to longbow, but had to advance through muddy terrain. They were already tired when they reached English line, but even so English men-at-arms in the center were heavily pressed until archers attacked using melee weapons.

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So, what does this mean? Tyrell main strength is in their cavalry. But the ground had been turned to mud by heavy rains, much at Agincourt. Therefore, likely series of events is as such:

1) Tyrell army will be provoked into attack (like Romans at Trebia and French at Agincourt). This will 1) deny them possible reinfocements, and 2) force them to advance across muddy terrain against a dug-in enemy. This is a problem, since majority of the army would likely be heavily armoured men-at-arms.

2) When Tyrell cavalry attacks, it will be impeded by the mud. If Tyrell army utilizes standard feudal tactics - which seems the norm in Westeros - then cavalry will charge in front of and separate from infantry. This will leave them exposed to arrow fire from Golden Company, and also limit their mobility due to muddy ground.

3) Once Tyrell cavalry had engaged, and been weakened by the missile fire, they may get struck into flanks by elephants. This will panick horses, and lead them to running away - headlong into Tyrell infantry.

4) Tyrell infantry will be disorganized, and eventually surrounded and massacred.

I think the upcoming battle will look like the Last Storm. 

The Last Storm might foreshadow Jon Connington defeating Mace Tyrell between Storm’s End and Bronzegate, and that Randyll Tarly and his heir, Dickon, will be killed.

At the end of Arianne II, Winds, 

Spoiler

Haldon Halfmaester informs Arianne that Aegon has taken Storm’s End, and that Jon Connington wishes her to meet him there. Haldon proposes that she travel by ship across Shipbreaker Bay, to which Daemon Sand protests, noting that the safer journey is overland. Haldon responds that recent rains (not snows) have turned the roads to mud, so that the overland route would take two to three days, while it would take less than half a day to cross the bay. Haldon adds that there is an army descending on Storm’s End from King’s Landing, and that Aegon intends to meet them in the field. Since Daemon Sand understands that to mean that Jon Connington and Mace Tyrell will meet in battle, I suppose we should too. 

Across the Blackwater from King's Landing, the Kingsroad runs southeast through the Kingswood, across the Wendwater and emerges from the great forest at Bronzegate, which stands in the proximity of several small towns, northeast of where the Dornish Marches end. To the northeast stands Haystack Hall, and to the southwest stands Fellwood. To the east and south of bronzegate, we see relatively easy coastal terrain with some hills, as the Kingsroad turns more to the south to Storm's End on the northern shore of Breakwater Bay. The distance between Bronzegate and Storm’s End appears to be close to 120 miles or so, so about five to six days of marching. 

Spoiler

Upon Arianne’s arrival at Grffin’s Roost, Haldon wants Arianne inside Storm’s End before the coming battle, suggesting that Mace has already reached Bronzegate, and is likely approaching Storm's End. Otherwise, there would be no need to reject the safer road overland from Griffin’s Roost to Storm’s End. That puts Mace’s army right about where Orys Baratheon's army was during his subjugation of the Stormlands for Aegon the Conqueror. 

From The Conquest...

Quote

Within days of his coronation, Aegon’s armies were on the march again. The greater part of his host crossed the Blackwater Rush, making south for Storm’s End under the command of Orys Baratheon. 

In our coming battle, we know from Arianne II, Winds

Spoiler

that the field will be reversed, with Aegon's Hand marching north from Storm's End and the opposition force marching south from Bronzegate. 

We could read about the coming battle as it happens from Jon Connington's POV, or perhaps we will read an account of it reported to Cersei in King’s Landing or to Arianne at Storm’s End. I expect we will learn that Golden Company outriders will have harrassed Mace’s van which will surely be led by Randyll Tarly. From The Conquest...

Quote

Lords Errol, Fell, and Buckler, bannermen to Storm’s End, surprised the advance elements of Orys Baratheon’s host as they were crossing the Wendwater, cutting down more than a thousand men before fading back into the trees.

We don't know whether Lord Errol is back at Haystack Hall, or with Stannis, and it's possible he fell on the Blackwater. Lord Fell fell in the Wolfswood. Lord Buckler is at Bronzegate. Perhaps we will learn that Lord Buckler and levies from Haystack Hall and Fellwood will join with Jon Connington and Aegon. 

From The Conquest...

Quote

Aegon’s foes also found themselves plagued by other enemies. As Argilac the Arrogant gathered his swords at Storm’s End, pirates from the Stepstones descended on the shores of Cape Wrath to take advantage of their absence, and Dornish raiding parties came boiling out of the Red Mountains to sweep across the marches. 

So, perhaps the Lord of the Waters will join the fight for Aegon as well, or maybe the Lord of the Waters and Dorne will join Aegon in the aftermath of the battle. 

During the Conquest, "Dickon Morrigen and the Bastard of Blackhaven, commanding the vanguard, were" both killed, suggesting that Randyll, the leader of Mace’s van, and his son Dickon will die in our coming battle. Other than Argilac, Dickon and the leader of the van were the only named casualties. 

Aegon's Hand in the Conquest slew the enemy commander in single combat after offering him the chance to yield, suggesting that Jon Connington might offer Mace the same chance. 

And I am thinking that Jon Connington will take Heartsbane for Aegon. Then... Although Samwell has taken the black there might be an opportunity for him to have the Mance's son, held out as his own, legitimized and made lord of Horn Hill with the return of Heartsbane in exchange for House Tarly's support of Aegon. 

[Lord Varys]

3 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

I think the upcoming battle will look like the Last Storm. 

I think in light of FaB another version of the Battle of the Kingsroad is more likely. Aegon and the Golden Company are the Lads, and Mace and/or Tarly the Stormlanders under Borros.

3 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

The Last Storm might foreshadow Jon Connington defeating Mace Tyrell between Storm’s End and Bronzegate, and that Randyll Tarly and his heir, Dickon, will be killed.

I'd be surprised if Randyll would take Dickon with him to battle, he is still pretty young (10-12 in 300 AC). Even if Randyll took him, he would not allow him to lead from the front, making it not very likely that he would die. Not all that sure that Randyll would lead from the front either, now that I think of it. Also, there is considerable narrative potential in allowing Randyll to live at least until he can be reunited with Samwell for some sort of conflict/closure.

 

[sweetsunray]

On 7/15/2019 at 4:10 PM, John Suburbs said:

Let's also not overlook the potential wild card in all of this: the "friends in the Reach" that Laswell Peake mentions. If these friends are on the order of Randyll Tarly or Mathis Rowan, then the balance of power can shift dramatically in the Stormlands before the battle is joined.

And those "friends" would have been worked on by Varys. Varys did not just twiddle his fingers until aDwD's epilogue. He just was never in any of the POVs until then. 

[sweetsunray]

7 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

So, perhaps the Lord of the Waters will join the fight for Aegon as well, or maybe the Lord of the Waters and Dorne will join Aegon in the aftermath of the battle. 

There are still ships that used to be of Stannis's fleet pirating the Blackwater. They may come south. 

[Aldarion]

12 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Popular opinion really sees Tarly as a great soldier and commander. Not just because of Ashford - which happened a long time ago - but also due to his victory at Duskendale and his subsequent pacification of Maidenpool and how he dealt with outlaws.

It really looks as if the only guy who thinks he is a great general is Mace himself - the men around him and Westeros at large know that Tarly is the real deal.

Well, it still means that he will not refuse command if offered said command for political reasons by, say, Cersei.

12 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Actually, I'm more inclined to believe Aegon might fall for Arianne. She is a very good seductress and actually one of the most beautiful women in the entire series, at least according to George. Arianne herself clearly regrets that she couldn't marry Viserys III, a guy she already starts to idealize in her mind. Chances are pretty high that she will see Aegon as her means to become queen after all, and to get her father and Dorne the revenge they crave.

Arianne doesn't really have to delude herself into believing Aegon is the real deal to make use of him. But one certainly could imagine her convincing herself that Aegon is the real deal after she realizes that the Quentyn plan is never going to work.

Agreed.

9 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

I think the upcoming battle will look like the Last Storm. 

The Last Storm might foreshadow Jon Connington defeating Mace Tyrell between Storm’s End and Bronzegate, and that Randyll Tarly and his heir, Dickon, will be killed.

At the end of Arianne II, Winds, 

  Hide contents

Haldon Halfmaester informs Arianne that Aegon has taken Storm’s End, and that Jon Connington wishes her to meet him there. Haldon proposes that she travel by ship across Shipbreaker Bay, to which Daemon Sand protests, noting that the safer journey is overland. Haldon responds that recent rains (not snows) have turned the roads to mud, so that the overland route would take two to three days, while it would take less than half a day to cross the bay. Haldon adds that there is an army descending on Storm’s End from King’s Landing, and that Aegon intends to meet them in the field. Since Daemon Sand understands that to mean that Jon Connington and Mace Tyrell will meet in battle, I suppose we should too. 

Across the Blackwater from King's Landing, the Kingsroad runs southeast through the Kingswood, across the Wendwater and emerges from the great forest at Bronzegate, which stands in the proximity of several small towns, northeast of where the Dornish Marches end. To the northeast stands Haystack Hall, and to the southwest stands Fellwood. To the east and south of bronzegate, we see relatively easy coastal terrain with some hills, as the Kingsroad turns more to the south to Storm's End on the northern shore of Breakwater Bay. The distance between Bronzegate and Storm’s End appears to be close to 120 miles or so, so about five to six days of marching. 

Hide contents   Hide contents

Upon Arianne’s arrival at Grffin’s Roost, Haldon wants Arianne inside Storm’s End before the coming battle, suggesting that Mace has already reached Bronzegate, and is likely approaching Storm's End. Otherwise, there would be no need to reject the safer road overland from Griffin’s Roost to Storm’s End. That puts Mace’s army right about where Orys Baratheon's army was during his subjugation of the Stormlands for Aegon the Conqueror. 

From The Conquest...

In our coming battle, we know from Arianne II, Winds

   Hide contents

that the field will be reversed, with Aegon's Hand marching north from Storm's End and the opposition force marching south from Bronzegate. 

We could read about the coming battle as it happens from Jon Connington's POV, or perhaps we will read an account of it reported to Cersei in King’s Landing or to Arianne at Storm’s End. I expect we will learn that Golden Company outriders will have harrassed Mace’s van which will surely be led by Randyll Tarly. From The Conquest...

We don't know whether Lord Errol is back at Haystack Hall, or with Stannis, and it's possible he fell on the Blackwater. Lord Fell fell in the Wolfswood. Lord Buckler is at Bronzegate. Perhaps we will learn that Lord Buckler and levies from Haystack Hall and Fellwood will join with Jon Connington and Aegon. 

From The Conquest...

So, perhaps the Lord of the Waters will join the fight for Aegon as well, or maybe the Lord of the Waters and Dorne will join Aegon in the aftermath of the battle. 

 During the Conquest, "Dickon Morrigen and the Bastard of Blackhaven, commanding the vanguard, were" both killed, suggesting that Randyll, the leader of Mace’s van, and his son Dickon will die in our coming battle. Other than Argilac, Dickon and the leader of the van were the only named casualties. 

Aegon's Hand in the Conquest slew the enemy commander in single combat after offering him the chance to yield, suggesting that Jon Connington might offer Mace the same chance. 

And I am thinking that Jon Connington will take Heartsbane for Aegon. Then... Although Samwell has taken the black there might be an opportunity for him to have the Mance's son, held out as his own, legitimized and made lord of Horn Hill with the return of Heartsbane in exchange for House Tarly's support of Aegon. 

Thanks. Nice read.

So House Tarly may support Aegon. I thought Randyll may join Aegon, but what you wrote makes a lot of sense.

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I think in light of FaB another version of the Battle of the Kingsroad is more likely. Aegon and the Golden Company are the Lads, and Mace and/or Tarly the Stormlanders under Borros.

Battle of Kingsroad IIRC is based on Battle of Agincourt, but I already explained why another Agincourt (or at least 1:1 replay of it) is unlikely in the OP. The composition of forces is simply wrong.

[Lost Melnibonean]

6 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

There are still ships that used to be of Stannis's fleet pirating the Blackwater. They may come south. 

Interesting notion. 

[sweetsunray]

2 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Interesting notion. 

Although I'm more inclined to think they will be amongst those who will ensure a blockade on KL, and throw up a barrier between Lannister forces of the RL trying to return to KL. But the ships of Stannis' fleet that have gone pirate on the Blackwater are Ragged Jenna and the Laughing Lord.