Brienne last chapter of AFFC

[Platypus Rex]

On ‎7‎/‎17‎/‎2019 at 12:00 AM, sweetsunray said:

Yeah, have to pay for it. I notice the date is 2014. And that George said "I think" before saying the number. So he was throwing an estimation, and quite an inaccurate one.

  Reveal hidden contents

With him stressing LS and having a major role in tWoW, Robb's widow and the wolf pack I cannot see how he can pull that off only through Arya wolf dreams and 1 prologue. He needs at least 1 POV for this: either Jaime or Brienne. My guess is both, perhaps 1 at the start as a merge (likely Jaime's), then a divergence to cover simultaneous events across the RL, and then either merging by the end of tWoW, or one a goner. And with all the talk of Willas and Garlan Tyrell, I think that means a Samwell POV. 

As for other POVs being a goner:

• I expect Selmy to die not long after the battle of Meereen, around the time Tyrion becomes an accepted councelor
• Damphair may have a few POVs, but he'll be a goner soon too. He needs to go, to make room for someone who might support Asha in aDoS. Might serve long enough for Oldtown, but beyond that? 
• Victarion's needed to get most of the armies to Westeros, but I think he'll die against Euron before the end of tWoW. Or rather his ships are needed and his captains, and perhaps his POV for any naval battle against the Volantene fleet. But he might be gone soon. 
• Hotah's our inside Dorne POV, but will likely die when the whole Dayne and Balon stuff is done, and Arianne can take the Dorne plot
• Can't rule out Arianne dying either though. 
• Of Jaime and Brienne POVs, I think Jaime's the likeliest to die and in tWoW
• JonCon at some point, especially when Dany and Tyrion arrive in Westeros
• If Asha and Theon can make it back to the Iron Islands to call the kingsmoot that elected Euron illegal, Theon's a goner after imo
• Mel once Davos can become a POV for CB/Wall/WF
• Brienne might not die, but her POV may become uneccessary once Arya returns to Westeros

If I'd have to bet on the POVs for aDoS, I'd go for

• Arya
• Sansa
• Bran
• Davos
• Jon: because of all that talk about going to the true north, more north than ever before and I don't see anyone else having the balls to go to the Heart of Winter to strike the Others there
• Dany
• Tyrion
• Cersei for one last effort in vain
• Asha to battle Euron
• (Samwell: might be not necessary because of merging)
• (Arianne)
• (maybe Brienne)

 

 

Since you used spoilers for the details, so shall I.  Just one comment before I do.  Nobody suggests that GRRM's estimate is engraved in stone, or that he cannot change it if he wants, adding (or cutting) POVs.  I just think it is bizarre that so many fans think they know better than GRRM does, or that Brynden B Fish knows better than GRRM does.  So without further ado, let's go into the specifics:

 

9 POVs are confirmed.  These are:  Theon, Victarion, Barristan, Arianne, Arya, Sansa, Hotah, Tyrion, Aeron.

BBFish lists Cersei and Daenerys as confirmed.  I would not say this, but I am almost certain they will be POV chapters, so I don't care to argue.  That brings us to 11.

BBFish also lists Bran as confirmed.  I'm less certain about this.   The Bran placeholder page, in the manuscript, could refer to the chapter we have already read, which was moved earlier into the book.  Also that placeholder page is not addressed to us, and promises us nothing.  It could be something he changed his mind about. GRRM did say that Bran will "probably" appear (odd coyness there), but it does not follow that he will appear in his own POV.  Perhaps we will see him as a whispering weirwood or a talking raven.  Still, I am inclined to think we will have at least one Far North POV, and if it is not Bran, it is likely to be Mel, Jon/Ghost or Davos instead.  For the sake of argument, let us say it will be Bran, and move on.  We are now at 12.

BBFish counts Mel as confirmed, merely because GRRM ruled out a visit to Ashai, but declined to rule out a possible Ashai flashback from, for instance, Mel's POV, in a future book.  This is nonsense.  Refusing to rule something out =/= confirmation.  Also a future book =/= (necessarily) TWOW.  Mel is not confirmed.

BBFish counts Davos as confirmed because GRRM suggested we would see Osha again.  That is beyond ridiculous.  GRRM did not say, where, when, under what circumstances, or in what book, we would see Osha again.  Davos is not confirmed.

BBFish counts Asha as confirmed, based on a glimpse at GRRM's computer screen.  This image is obviously too fuzzy to support anything beyond mere guesswork.  Asha is not confirmed.

BBFish says Jon Connington is confirmed, but his reasons make so little sense, that I cannot even think of anything to say in response.  Jon Connington is not confirmed.

Jon Snow is seemingly dead.  Maybe he'll return, but there are no guarantees.  GRRM explicitly refused to confirm Jon's return.  Jon Snow is not confirmed.

Samwell is already gone.  AFFC ended with Sam about to get offed by a faceless assassin.  If we see him again, it will be in another's POV and as a faceless man's doppleganger.  The real Sam is dead.

Brienne is already gone, and her POV has already ceased.  She will appear only in the POVs of others, only as an undead kingslaying hunter-hound.  

Jaime is already gone, and his POV has already ceased.  Looks like Zombie Brienne really did take the sword and slay the kingslayer, after all.  He, too, will appear only in the POVs of others.  Probably he will appear in Cersei's POV, as an undead valonquar.

So that leaves us at 12 (including Bran, who is rather tentative).  We can add 1 more from the following list:  Asha, Jon/Ghost, Davos, JonCon, Mel.  

Which brings us to 13. 

Alternatively, we could add 2 from the list of unconfirmed POVs, and make it 14, and that would be close enough to GRRM's estimate.  But there seems no particular reason to go beyond GRRM's estimate of 13, when the confirmed POVs only get us to 12.

GRRM's counts traditionally don't include prologue and epilogue.  So that gives us room to add 2 more names to the list.  But (going by tradition) they will probably not be among the POVs that we know.

So yes, 13 POVS (not counting prologue and epilogue) is easily possible.  That depends, of course, on what GRRM has planned.  But he has that knowledge, not us.

[sweetsunray]

7 hours ago, Platypus Rex said:

Since you used spoilers for the details, so shall I.  Just one comment before I do.  Nobody suggests that GRRM's estimate is engraved in stone, or that he cannot change it if he wants, adding (or cutting) POVs.  I just think it is bizarre that so many fans think they know better than GRRM does, or that Brynden B Fish knows better than GRRM does.  So without further ado, let's go into the specifics:

  Hide contents

9 POVs are confirmed.  These are:  Theon, Victarion, Barristan, Arianne, Arya, Sansa, Hotah, Tyrion, Aeron.

BBFish lists Cersei and Daenerys as confirmed.  I would not say this, but I am almost certain they will be POV chapters, so I don't care to argue.  That brings us to 11.

BBFish also lists Bran as confirmed.  I'm less certain about this.   The Bran placeholder page, in the manuscript, could refer to the chapter we have already read, which was moved earlier into the book.  Also that placeholder page is not addressed to us, and promises us nothing.  It could be something he changed his mind about. GRRM did say that Bran will "probably" appear (odd coyness there), but it does not follow that he will appear in his own POV.  Perhaps we will see him as a whispering weirwood or a talking raven.  Still, I am inclined to think we will have at least one Far North POV, and if it is not Bran, it is likely to be Mel, Jon/Ghost or Davos instead.  For the sake of argument, let us say it will be Bran, and move on.  We are now at 12.

BBFish counts Mel as confirmed, merely because GRRM ruled out a visit to Ashai, but declined to rule out a possible Ashai flashback from, for instance, Mel's POV, in a future book.  This is nonsense.  Refusing to rule something out =/= confirmation.  Also a future book =/= (necessarily) TWOW.  Mel is not confirmed.

Misrepresentation of the argument. George himself said that he could do so from a Mel POV in a flashback. So, it is confirmed that George still considers Mel a POV not just in aDwD, but in one of the future books. You could argue that she might have a POV in aDoS, instead of tWoW. But if there is one reason to believe that Mel will have at least 1 POV chapter in tWoW it's to give us an eye on the direct aftermath of Jon's assassination. Even if he's only wounded he lost consciousness, and if he's inside Ghost he's locked up in ar armory and can't see a thing, 

BBFish counts Davos as confirmed because GRRM suggested we would see Osha again.  That is beyond ridiculous.  GRRM did not say, where, when, under what circumstances, or in what book, we would see Osha again.  Davos is not confirmed.

That is not beyond ridiculous. You can argue that there might be a slim chance that George won't write a Davos POV at all and keeps us blind, and has Osha appear out of thin air in someone else's northern POV... euhm wich one? You argue about all of the northern POVs except for Theon's that it's ridiculous they will be in the tWoW. Hello!!! Davos may not be confirmed (and I obviously did NOT list him as confirmed in MY list), but his POV is to be expected, and if Osha appears then yeah the most logical POV that would be in is Davos, since he went off to Skagos to look for Rickon and Osha is Rickon's caretaker. 

BBFish counts Asha as confirmed, based on a glimpse at GRRM's computer screen.  This image is obviously too fuzzy to support anything beyond mere guesswork.  Asha is not confirmed.

LOL... obviously you have never seen that image. It isn't guesswork. There was guesswork involved with certain words, but a portion can be clearly read, and yes that is an Asha POV of events related to the Battle of Ice, not a Theon POV. Asha is confirmed. Furthermore George has confirmed that tWoW starts with two major battles to resolve: Meereen and Battle of Ice (at least). And you agree that 3 POV on the battle of Meereen is confirmed, but he's only using the POV of the guy hanging from a wall in a tower (or a cage about to be burned as sacrifice, or awya on a horse to wherever else)? 

BBFish says Jon Connington is confirmed, but his reasons make so little sense, that I cannot even think of anything to say in response.  Jon Connington is not confirmed.

Jon Snow is seemingly dead.  Maybe he'll return, but there are no guarantees.  GRRM explicitly refused to confirm Jon's return.  Jon Snow is not confirmed.

Samwell is already gone.  AFFC ended with Sam about to get offed by a faceless assassin.  If we see him again, it will be in another's POV and as a faceless man's doppleganger.  The real Sam is dead.

LOL? Oh, so just because a faceless assassin is a co-worker of Sam, Sam's dead? Weird how come Gendry, Hot Pie and Arya didn't end up dead, or why Arya gets along with so many people during missions and only kills the target. If Sam was the target, then that was very badly written, because apparently nobody figured out that Sam was being killed in the chapter.  It doesn't say "epilogue" above his POV. 

Brienne is already gone, and her POV has already ceased.  She will appear only in the POVs of others, only as an undead kingslaying hunter-hound.  

LOL, which is your tinfoil theory and NOT CONFIRMED. 

Jaime is already gone, and his POV has already ceased.  Looks like Zombie Brienne really did take the sword and slay the kingslayer, after all.  He, too, will appear only in the POVs of others.  Probably he will appear in Cersei's POV, as an undead valonquar.

Now, while I agree that Jaime may not be for long, but it is beyond ridiculous to assume George will have that happen off-page. Because according to you hey we do'nt have ANY RL pov at all in the books. We can't have a zombie Brienne POV and Jaime's dead. We're not getting a LS POV. And Arya has lots of adventures in Braavos first. So, no, it is beyond ridiculous to presume we won't at least have 1 POV of one of them. 

So that leaves us at 12 (including Bran, who is rather tentative).  We can add 1 more from the following list:  Asha, Jon/Ghost, Davos, JonCon, Mel.  

Which brings us to 13. 

Alternatively, we could add 2 from the list of unconfirmed POVs, and make it 14, and that would be close enough to GRRM's estimate.  But there seems no particular reason to go beyond GRRM's estimate of 13, when the confirmed POVs only get us to 12.

GRRM's counts traditionally don't include prologue and epilogue.  So that gives us room to add 2 more names to the list.  But (going by tradition) they will probably not be among the POVs that we know.

So, basically in THE WINDS OF WINTER "where we're going to see more action of the Others" according to you we'll have to see that ALL through Theon and potentially 1 more, but we'll have 3 POV in Meereen, 2 Dornish POVs, none in the RL (none for the RW2) ... the reason why George made extra POVs was to have EYES for us for certain events. We know the RL cannot remain off-page, when George stressed and pushed D&D so much to have LS on the show. She is going to do a lot of important stuff in the RL, and all that BEFORE Arya gets back. 

And I find it completely ironic that you declare 3 (4) POVs dead already and apparently so badly written that nobody but you have a clue they are dead, but ridicule quite obvious associations. Anyway, that's my last reply to you. We are done. 

So yes, 13 POVS (not counting prologue and epilogue) is easily possible.  That depends, of course, on what GRRM has planned.  But he has that knowledge, not us.

I've replied in color and in bold in between your arguments.

[Nevets]

17 hours ago, Platypus Rex said:

Nobody suggests that GRRM's estimate is engraved in stone, or that he cannot change it if he wants, adding (or cutting) POVs.  I just think it is bizarre that so many fans think they know better than GRRM does, or that Brynden B Fish knows better than GRRM does. 

Actually, we are considering many possibilities.  The most likely is that George's remarks were unclear, and the writer misunderstood (or misinterpreted ) them.  Given that the article is in French, and the interview was presumably in English, that is not too hard to imagine.   Also, George is notorious for being imprecise on details sometimes.  It is worth noting that he mentions in the interview that AGOT has 7 POVs.  If you actually count them, you will get 8 (not counting the prologue).

I think he is saying that the first part of the book (presumably the part he had written at the time) has 13 POVs, and that, by the end of the book, there will be fewer active POVs than that.  From what I remember of it, nothing in the article contradicts that.  And AFFC and ADWD both had POVs that arrived quite late.

So for right now, I am assuming a full complement of POVs unless I hear conclusively otherwise.

[Platypus Rex]

On ‎7‎/‎20‎/‎2019 at 8:00 AM, sweetsunray said:

I've replied in color and in bold in between your arguments.

MELISANDRE NOT CONFIRMED

Misrepresentation of the argument. George himself said that he could do so from a Mel POV in a flashback. So, it is confirmed that George still considers Mel a POV not just in aDwD, but in one of the future books. But if there is one reason to believe that Mel will have at least 1 POV chapter in tWoW it's to give us an eye on the direct aftermath of Jon's assassination. Even if he's only wounded he lost consciousness, and if he's inside Ghost he's locked up in an armory and can't see a thing, 

Could =/= will.  So NOT CONFIRMED.

Mel is a POV, based on her one chapter in ADWD.  Perhaps GRRM has additional reasons for considering her a POV but that is NOT CONFIRMED.

You could argue that she might have a POV in aDoS, instead of tWoW.

Sure.  And that by itself gives away the entire game.  If we don't know that she will be in TWOW, then she is NOT CONFIRMED.  

But if there is one reason to believe that Mel will have at least 1 POV chapter in tWoW it's to give us an eye on the direct aftermath of Jon's assassination. Even if he's only wounded he lost consciousness, and if he's inside Ghost he's locked up in an armory and can't see a thing, 

Now you are theorizing.  Theory is not confirmation.

GRRM never promised us that he would give us an eye on the direct aftermath of Jon's assassination.  Nor does he hint from whose POV it will be given.  Mel's?  Jon/Ghosts?   Bran/Ravens?  In due time, other characters may arrive at the Wall, and learn the backstory of what happened there.  GRRM has promised to bring the threads of the story together.  

All sorts of things could happen.  But guesswork is not confirmation.  Theory is not confirmation.

DAVOS

That is not beyond ridiculous. You can argue that there might be a slim chance that George won't write a Davos POV at all and keeps us blind, and has Osha appear out of thin air in someone else's northern POV... euhm wich one?

I don't know which one.  Is the burden on me to tell you?  Arguments from ignorance are not confirmation.  Maybe she'll show up in KL riding a unicorn.  GRRM says he is bringing the threads of the story together, and that any number of characters will be returning home.

You argue about all of the northern POVs except for Theon's that it's ridiculous they will be in the tWoW. Hello!!!

What???  No.  I said it was ridiculous to count Davos as CONFIRMED.   If you recall, I explicitly counted him as one of the possibilities for the 13th POV.  I also listed Jon/Ghost and Melisandre as possibilities for a 13th POV.  I tentatively listed Bran as my 12th POV.

Davos may not be confirmed (and I obviously did NOT list him as confirmed in MY list)

So you agree with me that Davois is not CONFIRMED.  Moving on.

ASHA

LOL... obviously you have never seen that image. It isn't guesswork.

I've seen the image, and it is guesswork.   Perhaps you are confusing the original image itself with its reconstruction/translation.

There was guesswork involved with certain words, but a portion can be clearly read,

If you said that nothing can be clearly read, and that some words cannot even be guessed at, this might be an accurate statement.

Furthermore George has confirmed that tWoW starts with two major battles to resolve: Meereen and Battle of Ice (at least).

So what?   Theon is a confirmed POV.

And you agree that 3 POV on the battle of Meereen is confirmed, but he's only using the POV of the guy hanging from a wall in a tower (or a cage about to be burned as sacrifice, or awya on a horse to wherever else)? 

I'm  not ruling out the possibility that GRRM will observe the battle of IC from more than one POV.  But it sounds to be that you're engaged in theorizing.  Theory is not confirmation.

I guess you agree that JON CONNINGTON is not confirmed, since you give no argumemnt;

SAMWELL

LOL? Oh, so just because a faceless assassin is a co-worker of Sam, Sam's dead?

No, not just for that.  There are other reasons.  But there is no need to debate this theory.  It is only a theory.  What is more to the point, is that no-one has confirmed that he is alive, or that, even if he is alive, that he will have his own POV chapter in TWOW.

Even BBFish does not count Samwell as confirmed.

If Sam was the target, then that was very badly written, because apparently nobody figured out that Sam was being killed in the chapter. 

But people HAVE picked up on it.  But sure, GRRM probably means to keep us guessing. When Fake Sam the Faceless Man finally shows up, in someone else's POV, it is likely that GRRM expects that some will be fooled.

It doesn't say "epilogue" above his POV. 

Yes.  And AFFC does not have an "epilogue".  Maybe GRRM thought that having an one-off epilogue after a death chapter would have been a bit redundant.  Maybe.

BRIENNE

LOL, which is your tinfoil theory and NOT CONFIRMED. 

Of course it's my theory and not confirmed.  But more to the point BRIENNE is not confirmed as a POV in TWOW.  Even BBFish does not count her as confirmed. 

JAIME

Now, while I agree that Jaime may not be for long, but it is beyond ridiculous to assume George will have that happen off-page.

It was a 1-day ride, according to Brienne.  But now Jaime has been missing for weeks.  And yes, again, my theories about Jaime are just theories.  More to the point, for purposes of our discussing, he is NOT CONFIRMED as a POV for TWOW.  Even BBFish does not list him as confirmed.

Because according to you hey we do'nt have ANY RL pov at all in the books.

I said nothing about that.  Arya may have wolf-dreams.  Also, Tyrion, Arya and Dany will likely all 3 be returning to Westeros, and probably won't make KL their first stop.  Arianne is already leaving Dorne on route to the Stormlands to join Faegon, where I doubt they will stay, since Storms End is only the launching point for a general invasion.

As for the characters currently in the Stormlands, they are also likely on the move.  Some are on the way to the Vale, where they will encounter Sansa/Alayne, who, in turn, is not guaranteed to remain in the Stormlands indefinitely.

We can't have a zombie Brienne POV and Jaime's dead. We're not getting a LS POV.

All 3 can have their POVs cease.  Indeed, it seems, to some extent, to have already happened.  We have not seen a Catelyn POV since her throat was cut.  We have not seen a Brienne POV since she was hanged; and we have not seen a Jaime POV since he was lured off into the woods alone, for a one-day ride, weeks ago.

It is confirmed, from GRRM that Catelyn's POV will not resume.  This is not confirmed for Brienne and Jaime.  It is only my theory that they are dead and have/will return as Fire Wights.  But, on the other hand, it is also not confirmed that they will turn up in future chapters alive and well.  Still less is it confirmed that they will get their own POV chapters.

Samwell, Brienne and Jaime are not confirmed.  Sorry.  And GRRM did say that there will be 13 povs.  You have labeled GRRM's estimate as impossible, suggesting, at least, that GRRM's words fit my theories a bit better than they fit yours.

So, basically in THE WINDS OF WINTER "where we're going to see more action of the Others" according to you we'll have to see that ALL through Theon and potentially 1 more,

No.  I listed Theon as confirmed.  I also said there would be one more northern POV, who I guessed would be Bran.  And then there was a final unidentified POV, which I did not rule out being Northern.  Nor did I rule out an epilogue.  

Nor did I necessarily rule out more than 13 POVs.  I'm just saying GRRM knows more than we do and his estimates are not impossible.

And I find it completely ironic that you declare 3 (4) POVs dead already and apparently so badly written that nobody but you have a clue they are dead, but ridicule quite obvious associations.

You are ignoring context.  I never claimed that my theories are confirmed.  For present purposes, I am denying that opposing theories are confirmed.  There is a world of middle ground between these two extremes.  

Anyway, that's my last reply to you. We are done. 

That's fine.  You don't owe me an argument.  

[martianmister]

On 7/19/2019 at 6:20 AM, Platypus Rex said:

GRRM in a Sept, 2011 interview, two months after the release of ADWD:

"My characters who come back from death are the worse for wear -- in some ways they are not even the same characters any more. The body may be moving but some aspect of the spirit is changed or transformed and they've lost something. One of the characters who has come back repeatedly from death is a minor character named Beric Dondarion, the Lightning Lord. Each time he is revived he loses a little more of himself. He was sent on a mission before his first death -- he was sent on a mission to do something -- and that's what he's clinging to. He's forgetting other things -- he's forgetting who he is or where he lived -- he's forgotten the woman that he was once supposed to marry. Bits of his humanity are lost every time he comes back from death, but he remembers that mission. His flesh is falling away from him, but this one thing -- this purpose -- that he had is part of what is animating him and bringing him back to death. And I think we see echoes of that with some of the other characters who have come back from death."

So we have Beric, who has a loss of humanity but is sustained by a sense of mission.  But, in addition to him, "we" have seen echoes of this same pattern in other "characters" (plural), (besides Beric) who have come back from death.

The only other character we have seen, who seems to fit this pattern, is Catelyn.   Unless … Brienne ??

Don't forget Jon Snow.

[Platypus Rex]

13 hours ago, Nevets said:

Actually, we are considering many possibilities.  The most likely is that George's remarks were unclear, and the writer misunderstood (or misinterpreted ) them.  Given that the article is in French, and the interview was presumably in English, that is not too hard to imagine. 

Nothing is engraved in stone until we have the book in our hands. 

So, until we have the actual book in our hands, all I am doing is offering this as a piece of evidence, to be weighed against all the fan wish lists and Brynden-B-Fish fake confirmations.  This is what purports to be a direct quote from GRRM, from a  prominent French newspaper, with no motive to misrepresent.  It is worth at least as much, if not more.

So yeah, it's just one uncertain piece of evidence.  Ignore it if you like.

Quote

 Also, George is notorious for being imprecise on details sometimes.  It is worth noting that he mentions in the interview that AGOT has 7 POVs.  If you actually count them, you will get 8 (not counting the prologue).

Well, there are 7 at the end, because he eliminates one.  And that seems to be his focus here.  He is thinking in terms of bringing the threads of the story together so that he has a chance of finishing.  So for WINDS, he anticipates 13, but by the end, fewer than 13.

Quote

I think he is saying that the first part of the book (presumably the part he had written at the time) has 13 chapters, and that, by the end of the book, there will be fewer active POVs than that.  From what I remember of it, nothing in the article contradicts that. 

That's one possible theory.  I prefer the simple explanation that he anticipates including 13 povs, some of whom he plans to kill.  I believe mine is the most natural reading - as I suspect you would agree, if you did not find it inconsistent with your other ideas.

He has hinted along these lines in other interviews … that he will be bringing the threads of the story together and we should "take your bets" on who gets eliminated.

Quote

And AFFC and ADWD both had POVs that arrived quite late.

You're referring to the new POVs?  Sure.  GRRM might do that.  But new POVs have little relevance to our discussion.

Quote

So for right now, I am assuming a full complement of POVs unless I hear conclusively otherwise.

Assume what you like, as long as we understand that assumptions are not confirmations.

But "full complement" is what?  20?

(1) Jon Snow, (2) Bran; (3) Arya; (4) Sansa; (5) Tyrion; (6) Dany; (7) Samwell; (8) Brienne; (9) Jaime: (10) Cersei; (11) Barristan; (12) Victarion; (13) Asha; (14) Aeron; (15) Hotah; (16) Arianne; (17) Melisandre; (18) Jon Connington. (19) Theon; (20) Davos.

That's a bit rough.  Even ADWD, with its 1500+ manuscript pages, had only 16, not including Varymir, who technically is not even fully dead. 

It is going to be hard for GRRM to make progress with a story so fragmented.  But who am I to predict that the story will ever be finished.

All I am saying is that GRRM's estimate of 13 POVs has not been shown to be impossible.

[Platypus Rex]

44 minutes ago, martianmister said:

Don't forget Jon Snow.

We have not seen him come back from death.  We have not seen his loss of humanity or focus on mission, as a result of being brought back from the dead.  GRRM, if we can take his words literally, was talking of characters for whom we have seen this pattern, and we have not seen this in Jon, at least not yet.

[Nevets]

40 minutes ago, Platypus Rex said:

Nothing is engraved in stone until we have the book in our hands. 

So, until we have the actual book in our hands, all I am doing is offering this as a piece of evidence, to be weighed against all the fan wish lists and Brynden-B-Fish fake confirmations.  This is what purports to be a direct quote from GRRM, from a  prominent French newspaper, with no motive to misrepresent.  It is worth at least as much, if not more.

So yeah, it's just one uncertain piece of evidence.  Ignore it if you like.

Actually, unless George's French is a lot better than I expect it is, it is an indirect quote; it's been translated.  And even in the English, it is not a model of clarity.  It is quite unclear and ambiguous.

42 minutes ago, Platypus Rex said:

Well, there are 7 at the end, because he eliminates one.  And that seems to be his focus here.  He is thinking in terms of bringing the threads of the story together so that he has a chance of finishing.  So for WINDS, he anticipates 13, but by the end, fewer than 13.

But there were 8 for the whole book.  Your argument is like saying that he is intending for there to be 13 at the end of TWOW, which is fine by me but not what you think he met.  I am perfectly happy with thinking there will be fewer than 13 active POVs at the end.  I expect massive consolidation.  It's the only way to get it done.  I am not expecting only 13 POVs for the whole book as that leaves out major characters for roughly half of the remaining story, which is ridiculous.

46 minutes ago, Platypus Rex said:

You're referring to the new POVs?  Sure.  GRRM might do that.  But new POVs have little relevance to our discussion.

Some of the POVs are likely to have only 1 or 2 chapters.  Putting them somewhere in the middle might very well make a lot sense, depending on the story.  And if they aren't in the beginning, they might not count against the 13.

49 minutes ago, Platypus Rex said:

Assume what you like, as long as we understand that assumptions are not confirmations.

But "full complement" is what?  20?

(1) Jon Snow, (2) Bran; (3) Arya; (4) Sansa; (5) Tyrion; (6) Dany; (7) Samwell; (8) Brienne; (9) Jaime: (10) Cersei; (11) Barristan; (12) Victarion; (13) Asha; (14) Aeron; (15) Hotah; (16) Arianne; (17) Melisandre; (18) Jon Connington. (19) Theon; (20) Davos.

That's a bit rough.  Even ADWD, with its 1500+ manuscript pages, had only 16, not including Varymir, who technically is not even fully dead. 

It is going to be hard for GRRM to make progress with a story so fragmented.  But who am I to predict that the story will ever be finished.

All I am saying is that GRRM's estimate of 13 POVs has not been shown to be impossible.

Of course nothing has been confirmed, and won't be until publication.  And while 13 isn't technically impossible, it is impossible to tell any kind of a coherent story with that few, especially if that story is half of what remains.  Actually it isn't the 13 that is the problem, it is that the 7 left out would necessarily contain major characters. 

And yes, 20 POVs in the space available is quite tight.  I have done allocations for between 73-82 chapters, and there were mostly pretty ugly, especially the ones in the 70s.  Which may be why it is taking so long to write.

[Platypus Rex]

2 hours ago, Nevets said:

Actually, unless George's French is a lot better than I expect it is, it is an indirect quote; it's been translated.  And even in the English, it is not a model of clarity.  It is quite unclear and ambiguous.

It would be nice to have the original English.  But I don't think that makes the quote meaningless.  And, to the extent it is ambiguous, I doubt it is any clearer in the original English.  I see little potential for mistranslation here.  

"Direct" is a relative term.   It is "direct" compared to many other things, like Variety's report claiming that  GRRM had confirmed that Brienne was Dunk's descendant.  That was the end product of a long game of telephone, wherein GRRM was actually originally reported to have said (no recording available) "eventually all will be revealed in time".  There were no translation issues there; just too much indirectness, filtered through too much wishful thinking and confirmation bias.

However, the French quote strikes me as accurate.  It is (obviously) not based on what the fans want to believe.  So perhaps it is based on what is true.

Quote

But there were 8 for the whole book.  Your argument is like saying that he is intending for there to be 13 at the end of TWOW, which is fine by me but not what you think he meant. 

He explicitly says that's not what he meant, in TWOW's case.  He says there will be fewer than 13 at the end.  

In TWOW's case he talks both of the beginning and the end.  He talks of both.  One is 13, the other is less than 13.  He's obviously capable of looking at it from both angles.

In AGOT's case he does not specify, but if you count them, it matches the POVs left at the end.  Which suggests to me that he is remembering it from that angle, and not that he is going senile.

Quote

I am perfectly happy with thinking there will be fewer than 13 active POVs at the end.  I expect massive consolidation.  It's the only way to get it done. 

Why, then, do you have so much resistance to him actually doing this?

Quote

I am not expecting only 13 POVs for the whole book as that leaves out major characters for roughly half of the remaining story, which is ridiculous.

Do you have a specific major character in mind, not on my list of 9 confirmed, that you think it would be ridiculous for him to leave out?  I've already granted Cersei and Dany, bringing us to 11.  More tentatively, I also added Bran.  But he's a tree god now, and can be everywhere and anywhere, in other people's POVs.  So maybe we don't need him as a POV either.   But anyway, I'm now at 12.

If you make a compelling argument for ONE additional character, perhaps I can complete my list of 13.

If you make a compelling case for TWO additional characters, perhaps I'll have to replace Bran on my list to make room.  There was a disturbing and sinister finality to that final chapter.

But you'll have to make a compelling case for THREE or more characters before you start saying "ridiculous". 

Quote

Some of the POVs are likely to have only 1 or 2 chapters.  Putting them somewhere in the middle might very well make a lot sense, depending on the story. 

And where will all the other POVs be by the middle of the book?  Will Arya and Dany and Tyrion have returned to Westeros by then?  Will Arianne, with Faegon, be invading the reach or the riverlands, or the crownlands?  How can you tell if we will need these POVs, if we don't even know where the others will be?  If they are going to be running into each other, then we don't necessarily need the action described from 3 different POVs.

Quote

And while 13 isn't technically impossible, it is impossible to tell any kind of a coherent story with that few, especially if that story is half of what remains. 

I'm still waiting for a coherent argument in support of that proposition.  That's what seems to be impossible to make.

Quote

Actually it isn't the 13 that is the problem, it is that the 7 left out would necessarily contain major characters. 

Major character can continue to be major characters without being POVs.  Especially if GRRM, as promised, brings the threads of the story together.

Quote

And yes, 20 POVs in the space available is quite tight.  I have done allocations for between 73-82 chapters, and there were mostly pretty ugly, especially the ones in the 70s.  Which may be why it is taking so long to write.

You're far braver than I, if you actually tried to allocate chapters.

 

[kissdbyfire]

@Platypus Rex, you seem to have such a hard on for @BryndenBFish, bringing up how some theories are unproven/not confirmed, and at the same time you make huge unfounded leaps and state stuff as if it's gospel. Lile Sam is dead, Brienne is dead, etc.

[Platypus Rex]

20 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

@Platypus Rex, you seem to have such a hard on for @BryndenBFish, bringing up how some theories are unproven/not confirmed, and at the same time you make huge unfounded leaps and state stuff as if it's gospel. Lile Sam is dead, Brienne is dead, etc.

BryndenBFish has written an excellent resource, if you use it as a guide to help you find the original quotes and data.  However, many of his conclusions are questionable.  In particular, he presents as proven things that are not proven.  When I point this out, the burden does not switch to me to prove that the unproven proposition is definitely false.  We could just be humble and accept the uncertainty of the situation.

Certain theories I have presented (Sam is dead; Brienne is dead/undead; Jaime will be dead/undead) are just theories.  I have never claimed otherwise.  I have defended these theories, but I have never presented them "as gospel", as you falsely assert.

As one of the ambiguous clues supporting this claim, I have pointed to GRRM's statement to a French newspaper that TWOW will contain 13 POVs.  Certainly, it is easier to reconcile these words if some or all of my theories are true, than if all of them are false.  This remains true, to some extent, even if 13 is just an estimate that could be off by 1 or 2.

Is it absolute proof of anything?  Of course not.  But by the rather forgiving standards applied to mere theories, it is something worth considering.   No, I can't prove those unreliable Frenchies did not misquote him.  No I cannot prove he really meant what he seems to be saying.   But if you're going to be like that, then your own theories likewise cannot meet such a strict standard of proof for the items of evidence you cite, and we might as well wait for TWOW and stop discussing theories. 

The burden of proof is on the one claiming certainty.  Many people don't like my theories, because my theories conflict with THEIR theories, about how the story will go.  However, they protest far too much.  Instead of saying, "Okay, I see you have some evidence for this theory, but no complete proof, and I hope you are wrong because I would not like that", they claim my theories are absolutely impossible.   This exaggerated claim then sets the tone of the discussion.

For instance, in this thread, I have never claimed that it is certain that TWOW will contain only 13 POVs.  But I have disagreed with those who have claimed that it is impossible that TWOW will have as few as 13 POVs.  That claim sets the tone of the discussion, and places the burden on my opponents.  Sorry if that seems unfair.

Inevitably, they find they cannot come up with enough proof to support their exaggerated claim.  So, instead of just admitting, "okay, I cannot prove your theory is impossible", someone tries another tactic.  And it goes like this:"YOU ARE A HYPOCRITE BECAUSE YOU ALSO SAY THINGS YOU CANNOT PROVE".

That is what you are doing now.  And it is nonsense.  The things I cannot prove absolutely, I never claimed I could prove absolutely.  They are only theories, and I have presented them as anything else.   I can present some evidence - a few clues here and there - some arguable foreshadowing - an ambiguous quote from GRRM here and there - but no absolute proof.

Maybe you should stop trying to shut down everyone who presents a theory you don't like.  

[Makk]

I can see what Platypus is saying, and it is a somewhat interesting idea, but I don't think there is any chance that is actually what happened. You have to look at the characters and their motivations. To me it doesn't make any sense for Catelyn/Stoneheart to go to all the trouble of breaking down Brienne, demanding her service, getting her service, and then letting her die anyway, then trusting some weird magic she doesn't understand is going to work on her and work in exactly the way she wants. There is just so much that can go wrong with that it is not funny, I wouldn't find that compelling writing.

I do think it is a fascinating chapter though. Most people think my personal theory about what Stoneheart wants is just as crackpot though, someone said it was the most stupid thing they ever read. But I still believe that Catelyn is much more intelligent and even humane than people are giving her credit for. I believe she wants Jaime as an exchange to free Jon Snow from his nightwatch vows and crown him king in the north, as per Robb's final decree. And once she gets to the wall, she will realise it is her destiny to give up her life for the stepson she hated.

 

Anyway there are a couple of observations that I think are worth mentioning regardless of what her actual ambition is. I think anything said to Brienne in that chapter should be looked at sceptically, everything was an effort to break her down and make her do do something she would never normally do. The way Stoneheart knows exactly how to manipulate Brienne shows she is still extremely intelligent and has significant memory of her old life. She has also gone to significant lengths to get back Robb's crown. And the timeline has that scene, even the scene after when she meets Jaime, is months before other scenes we have already witnessed. Whatever Stoneheart is up to,  it does not intersect with other characters for some time. 

[Nevets]

On 7/20/2019 at 4:38 PM, Platypus Rex said:

I'm still waiting for a coherent argument in support of that proposition.  That's what seems to be impossible to make.

I am willing to dispense with Mel, Asha, and Jaime (whose story may be at an end), but I think the story is better with them as POVs.  JonCon I don't care about.  

Jon and Bran are principal characters.  GRRM has said as much, and I think he is right. 

I don't think he sent Sam and Davos on their journeys for kicks and giggles (nor do I think Sam is dead).  There are no POVs with them, so they will need chapters for awhile, at least.  Brienne's story is not, I think, over either, and with Jaime out of the picture, has no nearby POVs to cover her story for now either.  So, a minimum of 16.  13 at the beginning, and 3 later.  Although I still think there will be more.

On 7/20/2019 at 4:38 PM, Platypus Rex said:

Why, then, do you have so much resistance to him actually doing this?

I'm not resistant to 13 at the end.  I am resistant to there being no more than 13 during the course of the book itself.

[Platypus Rex]

3 hours ago, Nevets said:

I am willing to dispense with Mel, Asha, and Jaime (whose story may be at an end), but I think the story is better with them as POVs.  JonCon I don't care about.  

That brings us down to 16.   Out of curiosity, which of the 16 do you think will be eliminated to bring it down to 12 or less?

Quote

Jon and Bran are principal characters.    GRRM has said as much, and I think he is right. 

Until they die, sure; and I don't recall GRRM making any guarantees.   And again, principal characters, especially tree gods, can appear in the POVs of other characters.

And the flexible list of 13, I gave above, potentially allowed for both Jon/Ghost and Bran to be POVs, e.g. (1) Theon, (2) Victarion, (3) Arianne, (4) Arya, (5) Sansa, (6) Tyrion, (7) Barristan, (8) Aeron, (9) Hotah, (10) Dany, (11) Cersei, (12) Bran, (13) Jon/Ghost.

Quote

I don't think he sent Sam and Davos on their journeys for kicks and giggles (nor do I think Sam is dead). 

I don't think GRRM sent Sam for shits and giggles.  I think he sent him to deliver Aemon's kingsblood corpse, and Mance's kingsblood baby, and Aemon's books of dragon lore to Marwyn the blood mage and his evil cabal, so they can use these things to wake stone dragons or similar evil purposes. If we are really gearing up for a second Dance of the Dragons, as GRRM once promised, then, by analogy, that would seem to require a few more dragons.

Okay, that's just a theory.  But if we don't yet know the purpose of Samwell's POV chapters, then we can hardly say that they require him to stay alive after AFFC.

Also, I hardly see the point to having faceless men in a story featuring 2 dozen POV characters, if one is not going to use the faceless man trick to mess with the reader.  Surely someone we think we know will at some point turn out to be a doppleganger.

Quote

There are no POVs with them, so they will need chapters for awhile, at least. 

If that logic were airtight, we would have been following Osha and Rickon all along.  Yet it seems perhaps they made it all the way to Skagos without us knowing anything except vague rumors.  I think they'll make it back that way as well.  We'll find out what they achieved on Skagos after they return.  Davos' POV chapters so far have merely helped us connect the dots, so that when they return, it won't be completely out of left field.

I think those anticipating a mini-novel of Davos, Osha and Rickon's adventures on Skagos will be disappointed.  GRRM has no time for that, and never promised us that.  I think GRRM's goal is to lay down enough connectable dots so that when these folks return from Skagos, having achieved whatever they needed to achieve, and having brought back whatever they needed to bring back, it won't be completely out of left field.

Will they return with a dragon?  Or an army of Other-slaying unicorns?  Or some lost lore?  I don't know.  But my guess is we surely won't know it until their surprise appearance at some critical moment in Westeros?

But again, I'm not certain about anything.  If you drop Bran, or Jon Snow, who are by no means guaranteed for reasons already stated, you might have room for Davos.

But I certainly don't we have time for Sam's Hogwarts-style adventures in Oldtown, with his Evil-Dumbledore mentor Marwyn, his Evil-Ron/Hermione buddy Alleras/Sarella, and his Draco-Malfoy type nemesis Leo Tyrell.  God help us if that ever happens.  The story will never progress.  I don't think that was ever the plan.  I think all characters other than the Big 6 (Arya, Sansa, Tyrion, Dany, Jon Snow, Bran) were introduced for limited and subsidiary purposes.  And I don't assume the Big 6 are safe either.

3 hours ago, Nevets said:

 Brienne's story is not, I think, over either, and with Jaime out of the picture, has no nearby POVs to cover her story for now either.  So, a minimum of 16.  

Brienne's POV has already ceased.  We already missed how and under what circumstances she got cut down.  We already missed whatever happened to make her one-day ride with Jaime last for weeks or months.  Maybe that does not mean she is dead, but at the very least, it means that GRRM, for whatever reason, does not want us to know what is going on.  He's setting up some kind of surprise.

We'll probably next see her in the Vale, through Sansa's eyes, as a mystery knight.   Whether alive or undead, she'll be a mystery from the reader as much as from anyone else.  Did GRRM not promise he would bring the threads of the story together?

And a number of curious parallels suggest she has been set up to be mistaken for, or confused with, Sandor Clegane.

[Platypus Rex]

8 hours ago, Makk said:

I can see what Platypus is saying, and it is a somewhat interesting idea, but I don't think there is any chance that is actually what happened. You have to look at the characters and their motivations. To me it doesn't make any sense for Catelyn/Stoneheart to go to all the trouble of breaking down Brienne, demanding her service, getting her service, and then letting her die anyway, then trusting some weird magic she doesn't understand is going to work on her and work in exactly the way she wants. There is just so much that can go wrong with that it is not funny, I wouldn't find that compelling writing.

I do think it is a fascinating chapter though. Most people think my personal theory about what Stoneheart wants is just as crackpot though, someone said it was the most stupid thing they ever read. But I still believe that Catelyn is much more intelligent and even humane than people are giving her credit for. I believe she wants Jaime as an exchange to free Jon Snow from his nightwatch vows and crown him king in the north, as per Robb's final decree. And once she gets to the wall, she will realise it is her destiny to give up her life for the stepson she hated.

Anyway there are a couple of observations that I think are worth mentioning regardless of what her actual ambition is. I think anything said to Brienne in that chapter should be looked at sceptically, everything was an effort to break her down and make her do do something she would never normally do. The way Stoneheart knows exactly how to manipulate Brienne shows she is still extremely intelligent and has significant memory of her old life. She has also gone to significant lengths to get back Robb's crown. And the timeline has that scene, even the scene after when she meets Jaime, is months before other scenes we have already witnessed. Whatever Stoneheart is up to,  it does not intersect with other characters for some time. 

I'm not sure if you fully describe your unpopular theory here.  What little you say seems to be in line with what many other people think.  I guess the unpopular parts are in the middle paragraph.

You seem to be trying to understand Lady Stoneheart's behavior in terms of her human motivations.  But I don't see it in that way.  I think wights are supernatural monsters.  I think the remnant of their humanity is merely one aspect of their identity, and ultimately a subsidiary one.

We have seen that Ice Wights also retain some aspect of their human memories.  Nonetheless, I don't think Ser Waymar Royce's decision to butcher poor Will can be explained in terms of those remnants of his human psychology and motivations. 

This is less obvious with the Fire Wights, who can talk and who retain a greater superficial mental resemblance to their old selves.  But I think it is nonetheless true of them as well.  Ultimately, these creatures are no longer human beings.  Fire Wights may be limited to pursuing oaths and missions they had in life, but some will or Force that is ultimately greater than their own - some dark force that is not even human at all - is part of what animates them.

I do not think for instance, that Beric's decision to animate Catelyn can be explained in terms of whatever was left of his human psychology and motives.  I suspect, rather, that the Dark Force that animated Beric (Rh'llor?  The many-faced God of Death?) saw Catelyn as a more suitable vessel for carrying out it's monstrous agenda.  Beric's honorable oaths were not, I suspect, something that it could make equally deadly use of.

I don't think this dark force has any use for Brienne's humanity, compassion, and the better aspects of her honor.  But the vengeful aspects of Brienne personality, including her oath to take Renly's sword and kill Renly's slayer, are something it can latch onto and use, and twist into something monstrous and deadly.

Or to put it another way, I don't think it makes a difference whether or not Catelyn understands the "weird magic".  The "weird magic" and not whatever is left of Catelyn, is ultimately what is calling the shots.

Just my opinion.   Maybe I've just read the wrong kind (or the right kind) of supernatural fiction.    The older kind.  Stuff like:  Stoker's Dracula; Bierce's The Death of Halpern Fraser, Le Fanu's Carmilla, Stevenson's Thrawn Janet, Jacobs' The Monkey's Paw, Lovecraft's Herbert West: Reanimator, King's Salem's Lot and Pet Sematary.  It is a tradition where, when the dead come back, they come back changed, and rarely for any good purpose.

[Platypus Rex]

In Stephen King's Pet Sematary, for instance, the people brought back from death, at first seem more or less like their old selves.  Something was missing, but they were not obviously monsters.  This, of course, only meant that the Wendigo, the Dark Force behind the burial ground, was playing a slow game.  The more the characters made use of the burial ground, to bring back their loved ones, the more the horror escalated.

I suspect a similar pattern of escalating horror here.  First Beric, then Stoneheart, then …. whoever comes next.