U.S. Politics: Pedophilia is Just Acosta Doin' Business

[DMC]

Yikes.  Yeah dropped out out soon after that myself.

[DMC]

I overprepared for a meeting and I guess people are still talking about Trump's comments on AOC et al., so I'll give some thoughts on that:

1. In the long run, this is not going to work.  Trump is distracting from other bad news, as always.
2. In the short run, maybe stop calling intraparty members racists and segregationists, because no one except maybe Joe Manchin is either?  What does that gain anybody except Twitter likes?  (Oh, guess I answered my own question.)
3. OTOH, stop assaulting MCs that can raise insane amounts of money based on their credibility with the stupid left.  The Dem leadership needs to let it go.  Especially that House Dems' account, which was Hakeem Jeffries' doing.  Dude, get over it and stop pouring flames.
4. Yes, Trump is making a political gambit here, trying to encourage the infighting between the Dems.  It's a weak move, and maybe Pelosi is a racist, but she has and will recognize it for what it is.
5. Moreover, this whole damn story has no significance on much of anything.  Definitely not on policy.  And politically?  It will run a few new cycles in the dog days of summer and that will be it.  This is the epitome of just something to talk about.  Since Julia Roberts doesn't get cast anymore.

[Gertrude]

They had Liz Cheney make some comments at the GOP new conference. It was cringe. "AOC and friends are wrong on this issue, this one, this one and this one. That's why we oppose them, not because we're racists."  Good for you? Now how about you actually address the tweet people are calling racist. Just the cringiest of non-apologies and obfuscations ever. Ugh - bunch of spineless cowards. Apparently they trotted out Liz because she's the only female R House member in leadership. 

[Centrist Simon Steele]

3 hours ago, TrueMetis said:

I guess my first question here what do you mean when you say "liberal democracy" cause the way I see by most definitions liberal democracy is the problem. It's what got us here.

It's definitely the problem because it's neo-liberal democracy. They're in bed with the oligarchs.

[DMC]

Harris' fundraising is comparatively weak

[Jace, Extat]

5 minutes ago, DMC said:

Harris' fundraising is comparatively weak

When did that go live and where the fuck did you find time to read it???

I just listened to the last politics podcast during my workout and I didn't see this on the politics page.

Anyway, I'm super sadface that Kamala Harris' gains appear short lived. Old Donald drowning out everything, per usual. 

[DMC]

6 minutes ago, Jace, Basilissa said:

I'm super sadface that Kamala Harris' gains appear short lived.

The fundraising numbers were due July 15.  Biden and Harris waited the longest to report them, but this isn't new news.

[Freshwater Spartan]

It's not terrible news for Harris. These are quarterly numbers. The first debate was towards the end of the first quarter so her strong debate performance didnt have a ton of time to boost fundraising. My understanding is that she did see an increase after the first debate. If the next quarter is low then she has to start worrying.

[Ormond]

1 hour ago, Simon Steele said:

 but 90 percent of what you say is negative, ad hominem attacks against those you don't agree with it.

That's simply untrue. Most of DMC's posts exhibit his expertise as a political scientist and are among the most valuable ones on this thread, in my opinion. I don't always agree with him or with some of his negative remarks, but to say that 90% of his posts are negative personal ones is just not supportable. He's one of the main reasons I still regularly look at this thread. 

[DMC]

House to Vote to "Condemn" Trump:

Quote

The House on Tuesday will vote on a resolution condemning President Donald Trump's "racist comments" directed at four congresswomen of color who he said should "go back" where "they came" from.

The resolution twice refers to "racist comments" by Trump but does not call the president a racist.

Fuck the resolutions, how bout you start censuring him you feckless Speaker?!?  And go after him much more aggressively in terms of investigations?!?  Pelosi/Hoyer/Clyburn is a huge disappointment, this is why I wanted them out to begin with.  And BTW, call Trump a racist.  Stop that bullshit.

6 minutes ago, Freshwater Spartan said:

It's not terrible news for Harris. These are quarterly numbers.

Yeah, I'm not too worried about it in that regard, because you're right.  Her bump was late in that time period.

[mormont]

[mod] If everyone could lay off the personal stuff, that would be appreciated. [/mod]

[Jace, Extat]

1 hour ago, DMC said:

The fundraising numbers were due July 15.  Biden and Harris waited the longest to report them, but this isn't new news.

Sorry, I was on my way into the shower and should have elaborated, her mentions last week on cable news dropped precipitously.

[DMC]

1 minute ago, Jace, Basilissa said:

her mentions last week on cable news dropped precipitously.

Meh, they regressed.  She was never gonna be that high forever.

[Maithanet]

I would say the news in the last week hasn't been great for Harris, but it's mostly been fine.  The race is winnowing significantly because of the higher threshold for the third debate in September.  There are five candidates who are clearly a cut above in terms of polling and fundraising, and Harris is one of them.  She'll have opportunities to improve her standing further as the field narrows. 

In contrast, there's like a lower-middle class of candidates that have a realistic shot at the third debate, but aren't there yet.  And then there's another dozen also rans who will start dropping off pretty quickly.

First tier candidates:  Biden, Harris, Sanders, Warren, Buttigeig

Lower Middle class:  Klobuchar, Booker, Yang, Castro, O'Rourke

Also-ran:  Everyone else. 

[DMC]

I'm honestly shocked how quickly it's winnowed.  Almost makes me suspect someone's gonna shoot up.  We'll see, I think it could happen.  The 2012 GOP primary was a shitshow because no one actually wanted Romney.  Well, no one wants Biden in this one.  I hope it quickly devolves into Warren-Harris, but part of me think that hope is foolhardy.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

It all goes back to the same thing: Trump’s media vacuum. No one will get that much traction until there’s just a few left because Trump sucks up literally all the oxygen in the room.

[Maithanet]

2 minutes ago, DMC said:

I'm honestly shocked how quickly it's winnowed.  Almost makes me suspect someone's gonna shoot up.  We'll see, I think it could happen.  The 2012 GOP primary was a shitshow because no one actually wanted Romney.  Well, no one wants Biden in this one.  I hope it quickly devolves into Warren-Harris, but part of me think that hope is foolhardy.

If I were making predictions, I think that Biden, Harris and Warren are virtually assured to be in through South Carolina at least, and probably through Super Tuesday.  Most likely there will be one or two more with them, but all the remaining candidates need at least some success in the early states to still be around for Super Tuesday.  Buttigeig needs at least second in Iowa or he's finished.  Sanders probably needs to win either Iowa or New Hampshire, because he isn't going to win Nevada or South Carolina.  Maybe Booker or Castro could have a surprisingly strong finish in Iowa or New Hampshire and ride that to a win in SC or NV. 

Other than that, it's hard to really imagine anyone else breaking through, but you never know.  One of the governors might have a great moment somewhere and start being able to sell their "electability" argument.  They're not even neccesarily wrong, I personally think that Trump would have a hell of a time beating a Bullock-Harris ticket if Bullock could get through the primary.  But he won't. 

[DMC]

@Maithanet couldn't have said the first graph better myself.  As for a ticket with Bullock at the top though, now you're just getting high in Colorado.

[Fez]

18 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

I would say the news in the last week hasn't been great for Harris, but it's mostly been fine.  The race is winnowing significantly because of the higher threshold for the third debate in September.  There are five candidates who are clearly a cut above in terms of polling and fundraising, and Harris is one of them.  She'll have opportunities to improve her standing further as the field narrows. 

In contrast, there's like a lower-middle class of candidates that have a realistic shot at the third debate, but aren't there yet.  And then there's another dozen also rans who will start dropping off pretty quickly.

First tier candidates:  Biden, Harris, Sanders, Warren, Buttigeig

Lower Middle class:  Klobuchar, Booker, Yang, Castro, O'Rourke

Also-ran:  Everyone else. 

I agree with Nate Silver that Marianne Williamson should probably be in that second tier as well (going by the way you have them split, anyway). She hasn't done much yet, but she's so different and has the potential to strongly appeal to a specific segment of the populace and use that to linger far longer than you'd think.

Beyond her though, yeah, that does seem to be the way things are winnowing, and I think O'Rourke will be in the also-ran category pretty soon as well.

Only wildcard is Tom Steyer. I don't think he's a real threat to win, but he has the money to stick around and maybe pick up some folks as others drop out.

[Maithanet]

2 minutes ago, DMC said:

@Maithanet couldn't have said the first graph better myself.  As for a ticket with Bullock at the top though, now you're just getting high in Colorado.

I think that Bullock has a better chance that most of the other also-rans.  He is pretty passionate in railing against money in politics, and Trump is the perfect foil for that message.  He just has to survive initial winnowing until the field is 5 or so and he'd have a real chance.  Of course, it doesn't look like he'll be able to do that.