Jump to content
Rippounet

What should be done... about climate change

Recommended Posts

Just now, Free Northman Reborn said:

The transition to renewable energy is inevitable. But it will take maybe 30-50 years. Musk has said that Tesla’s aim is simply to cut maybe a decade or two off that timeline. That is a pragmatic goal. 

First get electric cars to be appealing. Then as more people buy them, use the resultant economies of scale to gradually reduce the cost so that the mass market can afford them. That allows market share to grow even more. Then - in best case 10 years from now - electric vehicles might be the majority of new car sales. That would still require maybe 20 years beyond that point for the entire worldwide ICE fleet to be replaced.

Meanwhile expand and improve the production of large scale battery technology, as Tesla is doing now. Musk says 100 Gigafactories could produce enough battery storage to turn the worldwide power network renewable. So far they have 1 Gigafactory - but looking to scale from 28 Gigawatt hours of battery storage per year to 2 Terrawats.

As you can see, it will be a gradual process. You folks hoping for a solution in a shorter period of time are delusional. It will have to be a market driven transition, over decades. And if it takes another 100 years to remove the excess carbon from the system, well, then that is reality.

But the above is the only realistic approach. And even that requires visionary companies like Tesla to make it happen, against some powerful vested interests.

So squeeze any drop of petroleum out of the Earth and if there's any left and anyone still alive, rad!   ??? 

That's seems, ..... Stupid.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, larrytheimp said:

So squeeze any drop of petroleum out of the Earth and if there's any left and anyone still alive, rad!   ??? 

That's seems, ..... Stupid.

Agreed. Musk called it the dumbest experiment in history. But that’s reality.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
44 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

And 3 decades is way too long at our current rate. 

It's also complete guesswork. People have been saying we're almost out of oil for the past 50 years. Hasn't happened yet.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

The transition to renewable energy is inevitable. But it will take maybe 30-50 years. Musk has said that Tesla’s aim is simply to cut maybe a decade or two off that timeline. That is a pragmatic goal. 

First get electric cars to be appealing. Then as more people buy them, use the resultant economies of scale to gradually reduce the cost so that the mass market can afford them. That allows market share to grow even more. Then - in best case 10 years from now - electric vehicles might be the majority of new car sales. That would still require maybe 20 years beyond that point for the entire worldwide ICE fleet to be replaced.

Meanwhile expand and improve the production of large scale battery technology, as Tesla is doing now. Musk says 100 Gigafactories could produce enough battery storage to turn the worldwide power network renewable. So far they have 1 Gigafactory - but looking to scale from 28 Gigawatt hours of battery storage per year to 2 Terrawats.

As you can see, it will be a gradual process. You folks hoping for a solution in a shorter period of time are delusional. It will have to be a market driven transition, over decades. And if it takes another 100 years to remove the excess carbon from the system, well, then that is reality.

But the above is the only realistic approach. And even that requires visionary companies like Tesla to make it happen, against some powerful vested interests.

So squeeze any drop of petroleum out of the Earth and if there's any left and anyone still alive, rad!   ??? 

That's seems, ..... Stupid.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, larrytheimp said:

So squeeze any drop of petroleum out of the Earth and if there's any left and anyone still alive, rad!   ??? 

That's seems, ..... Stupid.

Suicidal. The term is suicidal.

We won't have the luxury of doing this little "experiment" anyway. Things will get way uglier than that because we're getting +1,5°C soon and that will change everything. 

Anyone who thinks humans will peacefully let "the market" fix this is delusional. I have an 8-letter word that's our actual future if we dont act now. The rest is horseshit. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Genocide. 

Because what's going to happen when humans, the most dangerous animals on the planet, realize their survival is actually at stake? When agricultures starts to fail? When the refugees number in the tens of millions?

We'll be lucky if there's anyone who can have the luxury of waiting for "the market" to fix anything.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It also would be helpful if Tesla didn't keep shooting itself in the foot every other quarter and Musk didn't say incredibly stupid stoner bullshit every other month. Because if Musk is the world's only hope, we are sooooo fuckkkked. 

The other real problem is that even if what he does works - where he adds a crazy amount of batteries and replaces every single use of ICE out there (which includes things that aren't remotely on Tesla's roadmap, like planes and shipping), that's still only 29% of the carbon emissions. It doesn't stop fossil fuel use from generating that electricity (and realistically there's no reason they should as more electricity is required for all those cars), it doesn't stop the industrial issues, it doesn't do anything to actually remove the excess carbon. 

If the thought is that the best we can do is simply wean ourselves off of using most fossil fuel in 30 years time, we're already hosed. At that point we'll be spending a very large amount of our resources simply fighting natural disasters every year, and it won't matter if we're using ICE or not. We'll be having to deal with hundreds of millions of people displaced from their lands due to lack of water and impossible living conditions. We'll have to deal with routine megafloods and megadroughts that wipe out crops for a year. We'll have to deal with large areas of the coastlines becoming entirely uninhabitable. Of major weather events that cause trillions in damages. 

I do think that the only real solution at this point is technological, but it can't be an iterative one. There simply isn't time. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

As you can see, it will be a gradual process. You folks hoping for a solution in a shorter period of time are delusional. It will have to be a market driven transition, over decades. And if it takes another 100 years to remove the excess carbon from the system, well, then that is reality.

But the above is the only realistic approach. And even that requires visionary companies like Tesla to make it happen, against some powerful vested interests.

This is most likely true... but it's hard to predict the future decades in advance. An optimist would argue that a sufficiently motivated and determined government can dramatically accelerate progress towards a given goal. We know that this is possible because, for example, the United States has done it before with the moon landings. It may be that China or, much less likely, the EU or Japan could do something of the sort with regards to the development of cheap, clean energy sources today.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Once again, these posts are hilarious. You guys are soooo screwed if you think you have 30 years to fuck around.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

First get electric cars to be appealing. Then as more people buy them, use the resultant economies of scale to gradually reduce the cost so that the mass market can afford them. That allows market share to grow even more. Then - in best case 10 years from now - electric vehicles might be the majority of new car sales.

Or alternatively, just ban the production and import of ICE vehicles; effective immediately for imports, and a year to phase out production. There'll be a shortage of new vehicles for a while as EV production ramps up, but that's not a big deal; people can keep their existing cars for longer and repair instead of scrap & replace.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Rippounet said:

Genocide. 

Because what's going to happen when humans, the most dangerous animals on the planet, realize their survival is actually at stake? When agricultures starts to fail? When the refugees number in the tens of millions?

We'll be lucky if there's anyone who can have the luxury of waiting for "the market" to fix anything.

I think the "plan" is for the heirs of Musk and Bezos to watch from Mars/space to see how it works out and if the non-space focused side of the 0.1 %(the genocide faction) can survive after the rest of us are dead.  ;)

Edited by Wolfgang I

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Kalbear said:

It also would be helpful if Tesla didn't keep shooting itself in the foot every other quarter and Musk didn't say incredibly stupid stoner bullshit every other month. Because if Musk is the world's only hope, we are sooooo fuckkkked. 

The other real problem is that even if what he does works - where he adds a crazy amount of batteries and replaces every single use of ICE out there (which includes things that aren't remotely on Tesla's roadmap, like planes and shipping), that's still only 29% of the carbon emissions. It doesn't stop fossil fuel use from generating that electricity (and realistically there's no reason they should as more electricity is required for all those cars), it doesn't stop the industrial issues, it doesn't do anything to actually remove the excess carbon.

He also has a solar power company and manufactures utility-scale batteries which can smooth out peaks in power usage. No, for all his eccentricities and apparent inability to understand SEC rules, Musk is doing about as much as one member of the ruling class can do to limit climate change. The problem is that he is very nearly alone in this. The vast majority of the elites today are either openly interested in continuing the usage of fossil fuels (because it financially benefits them) or vocally against climate change in principle, but not willing to do anything about it in practice beyond, say, taking a private jet to a Sicilian vacation spot where they will talk about how much they oppose climate change with others of their kind.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Fragile Bird said:

Once again, these posts are hilarious. You guys are soooo screwed if you think you have 30 years to fuck around.

I didn't say we had thirty years to fuck around.  I said we had 20-30 years before the fossil fuel supply end of the equation forces major changes to the energy situation regardless of programs initiated now.  And that assumes going full tilt with fracking, oil/tar sands, drilling in dubious areas, and increasing energy efficiency.   

 

Yes, it will be Hell's own mess - worse case, resource wars that effectively ends civilization across much of the planet.  (I figure a decades long recession/depression with authoritarian overtones is the most likely result.)

 

The recommendations I made with the railways and electric cars and redesigning suburbia to be people friendly would soften the blow some, but even if civilization doesn't crash,  green energy will not be enough to keep things 'as is.'  

 

Kalbears crack about steak puzzles me; there be a lot of real estate more suited to grazing than planting crops.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

And in other happy news, Greenland lost 11 billion tons of ice this week. In. One. Day.

Edited by Fragile Bird

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Fragile Bird said:

And in other happy news, Greenland lost 11 billion tons of ice this week. In. One. Day.

Watching videos of the Arctic Shelf cracking apart is so depressing.

Anyways, step one to fixing this crisis: remove most elected officials over the age of 50. We need to put people with a sense of urgency in charge. The elderly will not feel the effects of climate change like us Millennials will.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
29 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Watching videos of the Arctic Shelf cracking apart is so depressing.

Anyways, step one to fixing this crisis: remove most elected officials over the age of 50. We need to put people with a sense of urgency in charge. The elderly will not feel the effects of climate change like us Millennials will.

Good luck booting out the old farts. Some will self-select, though.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

saying we're almost out of oil for the past 50 years. Hasn't happened yet.

the basic contours of hubbert's peak oil thesis are correct, though it was likely difficult to predict in the 50s how extraction might develop or if anyone would figure out how to use byproducts like natural gas.  these things delay the inevitable, but there comes a day when one barrel of oil is used to extract one barrel of oil, at which point rational actors stop doing it.  sadly, rational is a standard we can no longer assume, as i can see trump spending a barrel to extract a half barrel out of spite.

 

my google news thingy is spamming me with 'articles'/ads for impossible burgers and other protein substitute products. i suppose that's something.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

×