Tyrek Lannister theories?

[Lord Varys]

20 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

Well, the regent is dead. Pycelle's dead. Swyft is off to Braavos. Mace Tyrell is Hand, but will want the glory to "re"-capture SE himself. Redwyne is at the Arbor and Oldtown. So, that leaves Qyburn, Lady Nym and Tarly. And even during that small council, Tommen's claim on Rosby (allegedly "gifted" by Gyles Rosby) was one of the 5. With the murder of Kevan and Pycelle, Cersei is sure to make a move.

Right now Tyrell, Tarly, and Swyft are all still in KL. And Tarly and Tyrell have made it clear they will only deal with Aegon after Margaery is acquitted - which, in turn, is going to take place after Cersei's trial-by-combat.

Unless this schedule changes they will have ample time to resolve the Rosby situation (which is due at the next session, anyway), unless they postpone that.

Qyburn is no longer on the council, by the way, and Lady Nym has yet to be accepted (Kevan didn't tell Tyrell and Tarly about her) - just as Swyft has yet to leave for Braavos. He is not going to disappear immediately after his son-in-law has been murdered, one assumes.

And we can, of course, be rather sure that Mace Tyrell is going to become Lord Regent as quickly as Ser Kevan was appointed. When Cersei was imprisoned by the Faith her remaining councilors (Pycelle and Swyft, after the dismissed Qyburn) offered the regency to Kevan. Once Tyrell and Tarly hear Kevan and Pycelle have been murdered there will be some sort of emergency council session discussing this most unfortunate double murder - and the result should be that Tyrell and Tarly offer the mantle of the Lord Regent to Mace Tyrell - a vote Ser Harys Swyft, the last remaining Lannister crony on Tommen's Small Council will not oppose (and even if he did, it would be 2 Tyrell votes against 1 Lannister vote).

Lady Nym is not going to materialize magically in her council seat (assuming Tyrell is going to grant it to her - he could dismiss her as quickly as Cersei canceled the appointment of Garth the Gross to the position of Master of Coin) before that happens. But even if it somehow did - and even if Swyft and Nym worked together to oppose the motion to make Tyrell the new Lord Regent - Mace Tyrell is still the Hand of the King. He speaks with the King's Voice. He can name himself Lord Regent, he doesn't have to ask anyone's permission.

FaB's Aegon III brilliantly shows us how much power a puppet king has at his own court during his minority - absolutely none. And Tommen is an even better puppet king than Aegon III ever due to his tender age.

We also don't know how the time line will go. Could be that the news about the fall of Storm's End reach KL before the Margaery situation is resolved - but this is not a given. Just as it is no given that Tarly and Tyrell will care to march against Aegon before Margaery has been acquitted. The Epilogue made it very clear that Mace Tyrell cares more about his daughter than the Golden Company, Aegon, or preventing Storm's End from falling to Aegon.

Cersei doesn't figure into this at all. At least not as a political factor people at court have to take seriously. She has no men-at-arms aside from how many Lannister guardsmen are still there (assuming they are still loyal to the woman who was paraded naked through the streets), no friends, and no allies aside from, perhaps, Qyburn - who has real power, either. Ser Robert Strong might do whatever she asks of him, but killing people is not going to give her back her power. She has to leave KL or risk to die the way Kevan and Pycelle did.

And considering her state of mind chances are not that bad that she will also have trouble to believe that Qyburn and his creatures are still loyal to her - just as it is not that unrealistic that Qyburn might contemplate betrayal considering that the death of Pycelle and Kevan clearly marks the end of Lannister supremacy in KL. Even if Tommen were to last and continue to rule the people to suck up to are now Tarly and Tyrell, not Cersei.

20 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

He has over 20 castles to gift in the Stormlands alone. And some of the Stormlanders have already chosen to join Aegon. He's not going to take any castle away from anyone who actively helps him in getting KL.

The Stormlords might actually help him. But Ermesande Hayford won't. Neither 'Lord Rosby' since there is no such at this point, and Stokeworth is in the hands of a Lannister crony nobody should miss or defend if Aegon were to put him down or push him away.

I certainly can see Bronn weaseling himself out of this thing, but he isn't the kind of guy Aegon has to care about. He is no Stokeworth.

20 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

Well, that's just it ain't it? If the Tyrell armies are storming for SE, Rosby and Stokeworth can shut the access from any food supply coming from Duskendale. The majority of the Lannister forces are in the RL and are about to getting their asses kicked. But even if keeps a good portion in KL, it's gonna take lives to storm it and problematic food supply to siege. 

We can be reasonably sure that Tarly and Tyrell are not going to throw all their 30,000-40,000 men against the Golden Company. That would be both overkill and utter stupidity. They have to ensure that the city remains in their hands, meaning chances are that they likely keep half or a third or perhaps only a fourth of their men back in the city. It isn't even clear that both will leave the city. Tyrell could decide that Tarly stay behind, he could command him to crush Aegon while he stays behind, he could command somebody else to command the troops while they both stay behind, or they could go both.

Both going or both staying behind is the least likely, of course, but it is a possibility. Once half or more of the Tyrell troops have left KL Tyrell power in the city certainly should start to erode, but they will still remain the strongest faction.

I don't think Aegon will have to besiege or storm KL, anyway. Varys will see to it that city welcomes him as their savior - like Larys Strong prepared the city for Borros Baratheon and later the Lads.

20 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

Why'd you think George has Cersei make enemies out of the ward of Rosby and Bronn at Stokeworth in aFfC? For shits and giggles? No, to give them enough reason to oppose and set up a blockade at the opportune time. And then there are those two prior Stannis ships pirating along the Blackwater. And the food supply from the Reach can become problematic with Ironborn sailing up the rivers into the heart of the Reach. George put all the pieces in play for KL to be blockaded once again.

Honestly, just to underline how shitty she is as a ruler. And it is a stretch to say she made an enemy of the ward of Rosby. Who is that ward? Possibly some preteen boy, we don't know. Does he even know the Queen Regent did not uphold Rosby's will? We don't know that, either. [There are theories around that he is a Rosby-Frey relation sent to Rosby when Walder cleansed the Twins of Stark friends, but those are just interesting speculations.]

Food should only become a problem when a siege actually starts - which it would only after the Tyrell army has been defeated. But even if the Tyrells sent all their men to Storm's End to die there, KL has more than enough manpower in the City Watch to actually deal with the Rosbys and Stokeworths. The City Watch are thousands of men-at-arms, and they certainly would march to ensure the city gets the food it needs. They live there, too, after all.

In the end, it seems rather unlikely that Tommen's end will be sealed when the Tyrell army fails to defeat Aegon at Storm's End. That's going to be the moment when everybody either stands aside or rushes to Storm's End to join the Targaryen pretender. There won't be any need for sieges or battles after that. Or only for rather small ones.

[must needs the rushes]

Valonqar candidate?

[Castellan]

On 7/20/2019 at 5:41 AM, Lady Blizzardborn said:

Crackpot one: Tyrek is the lion who will be slain in the forging of a new Lightbringer. 

oh no, that's Jaime!

 

[Castellan]

19 hours ago, must needs the rushes said:

Valonqar candidate?

hmmm so being held and encouraged not just to be a figurehead Lannister leader as part of an invasion, but an assassin, able to turn up and be received by Cersei? 

All of the ideas in this thread are interesting, but none are convincing, due to lack of more information. 

[BalerionTheCat]

Maybe GRRM, in his gardener style, had planned something for Tyrek. But then it came thru Lancell. And now Tyrek is left unanswered. One MIA. One to talk about without ever having the answer. One of these famous "red-herrings"?

[Lady Blizzardborn]

On 7/20/2019 at 6:52 PM, Castellan said:

oh no, that's Jaime!

 

That works too. But Jaime may be needed for other things.

[Castellan]

6 hours ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

That works too. But Jaime may be needed for other things.

Alas although my first impression of Jaime was he was like Achilles - would at some point break out of his sulk and be the warrior he was supposed to be - now I am expecting that it is too late for him.  

[cpg2016]

On 7/18/2019 at 6:23 PM, sweetsunray said:

But Tyrek was his fellow squire. Tyrek is not tainted by regicide or sleeping with Cersei, but he would know at least as much of Jaime and Cersei's relationship as Lancel did. Certainly at the time of his disappearance, Tyrek was the best choice to whisk away to expose Cersei when the time came that her children need to be exposed as the product of incest and that she committed regicide, because Lancel was enthralled by Cersei and her lover at the time. 

He is not being kept hidden safely away by Varys to make him a loyal Lannister figurehead for Aegon, but to produce as a reliable witness with a squeaky clean record of conduct to expose Cersei and her children, when the people and lords are ready to be swayed to flock behind Aegon as a savior from a fully corrupted government, regardless of outcomes of rigged trials and trials by combat. That time is coming very very near. 

 

Ding ding ding!  Give this guy the prize

[CandleWisps]

On 7/18/2019 at 3:23 PM, sweetsunray said:

He is not being kept hidden safely away by Varys to make him a loyal Lannister figurehead for Aegon, but to produce as a reliable witness with a squeaky clean record of conduct to expose Cersei and her children, when the people and lords are ready to be swayed to flock behind Aegon as a savior from a fully corrupted government, regardless of outcomes of rigged trials and trials by combat. That time is coming very very near. 

This definitely speaks to me in a stronger way than the Littlefinger and/or Varys keeping him around as a potential CR heir/puppet. With Tyrek as witness, any lords or ladies who might protest the accusations of incest and king-slaying will still do so, but such protests will be weak and few in light of the Lannisters current standing as of Dance.

On 7/18/2019 at 8:37 PM, Aebram said:

I think it must be significant that he is married -- not just betrothed, but actually wed -- to the infant "lady" Hayford.  Maybe he was killed by some rival for the lordship of that House, or by other Hayfords who didn't like the marriage. Also, we know that other squires made fun of him and his baby bride. Maybe he ran away out of embarrassment, or because he was in love with someone else?

Pride is a huge thing to the Lannisters, so if Tyrek did disappear during the riot by his own means (unlikely, but possible), I wouldn't be surprised if this was part of the reason. Tyrek was what, 12? 13? That's a very sensitive age to bullying and the cruel jests of your peers, especially to someone who'd probably known anything but previously.

On 7/18/2019 at 1:10 PM, John Suburbs said:

I read one where he was one of the bodies that Arya prepped in the HoBaW, but I'm not sure I buy it. The FM don't take just any old body as payment for a hit, especially one that you've basically kidnapped and has no intrinsic value to you.

I've heard this theory as well, but another version I came across was not that Tyrek's body had been used as "payment", but that Tyrek himself had gone to the HoBaW himself in search of the gift of death, and that's what the gold dragons had paid for. The theory did not account for the how or the why he had gone from KL to Braavos, but guilt was thrown out as a reason. Guilt for his part in Roberts murder, and the ensuing war.

Now me, I'm partial to this theory. Not because it makes the most sense, or because it will have any kind of importance (and the Seven know it has holes galore), but because I kind of like the idea of a character, especially a Lannister, just being Grade A DoneTM with all the conniving and plotting and murder and death. Just so over it all, especially at a young age where it might seem the sky is falling, that Tyrek says "nope" and just ends it all. Some parts guilt for his part in Roberts death, some parts nihilism, some parts a result of what he fears might way for him should he return to KL (his child bride, his unrelenting family, etc).

Just one Lannister who says "no thank you" to becoming what the rest in his family seem to be is kind of neat-o in my book. It's an idea that's so full of holes it practically sinks all by itself, and it doesn't play into the whole "mystery" or the machinations of the other characters, but it's one I'm fond of regardless for it's thematic significance, and because it's the only avenue of Tyrek's fate that has him in charge of it

[sweetsunray]

On 7/24/2019 at 11:19 PM, cpg2016 said:

Ding ding ding!  Give this guy the prize

Thank you. (Gal actually)

It certainly fits with the timing that Illyrio sent a ship to Qarth to fetch Dany with her young dragons back to Pentos, while Westeros was torn apart in civil war by several claimants, and Lannister armies were getting beat up in the Riverlands and Renly and Stannis were fighting one another. 

[Ser Leftwich]

Two theories:

1) He's dead.

2) He's alive.

(Not very exotic or elaborate, but I think I am close with one of them.)

[Springwatch]

The most, most probable scenario is that Tyrek was carried away by the starving horde and ended up in a kettle of brown. The story doesn't need him - even his big secret is not that important now that winter has come, climate disaster is imminent, and a real zombie horde is rising in the north.

And there lies the likely purpose of Tyrek's story: just as the mob of KL makes an excellent foreshadow for the army of wights, so too Tyrek's fate reflects on... someone. I'm betting on Tyrion. If I remember rightly, Lancel makes a pretty good parallel to Jaime, so why not?

[nyser1]

I still subscribe to the theory that he is a pawn/hostage against the Westerlords for Aegon. He is a Lannister of the Rock...though "pesky" Martyn and Lancel (name or no name) are alive and next behind Tywin's children.

[Nevets]

On 7/18/2019 at 4:23 PM, sweetsunray said:

I think BryndenBFish is close, as in Tyrek is a trump card for Varys to aid with Aegon's invasion.

But remember that Tyrek was a squire to Robert alongside of Lancel. Both were Robert's squires. Most of our focus has been on Lancel: who helped Robert get so drunk on strongwine it got him killed, who ended up sleeping with Cersei, who confessed his sins to the High Septon, and I'm pretty sure also confessed all to the High Sparrow when he became a Warrior's Son. So, far he is the likeliest informant for HS accusations of Cersei having committed regicide. And as a Warrior's Son he is most likely to be one of the Faith's champions if it comes to a Trial by Combat. 

But Tyrek was his fellow squire. Tyrek is not tainted by regicide or sleeping with Cersei, but he would know at least as much of Jaime and Cersei's relationship as Lancel did. Certainly at the time of his disappearance, Tyrek was the best choice to whisk away to expose Cersei when the time came that her children need to be exposed as the product of incest and that she committed regicide, because Lancel was enthralled by Cersei and her lover at the time. 

He is not being kept hidden safely away by Varys to make him a loyal Lannister figurehead for Aegon, but to produce as a reliable witness with a squeaky clean record of conduct to expose Cersei and her children, when the people and lords are ready to be swayed to flock behind Aegon as a savior from a fully corrupted government, regardless of outcomes of rigged trials and trials by combat. That time is coming very very near. 

 

While I suspect that his disappearance has to do with what he knows, I have doubts about much of the rest of this.

I have doubts that he has any useful information on the incest.  Unless he has direct evidence, such as seeing them having sex or hearing a confession, I doubt that he can add much.   Jaime and Cersei being brother and sister, as well as Kingsguard and Queen, means that conduct that would otherwise be suspicious, such as spending lots of time alone, and even showing signs of affection, could be regarded and perfectly normal.  And they acted with great discretion, so I doubt there is any proof to be had.

Cersei was arrested for killing the previous High Septon, not Robert.  Proving murder of Robert would be difficult, since it was his own actions (admittedly while drunk) that got him killed.  

We have no idea what kind of person Tyrek is.  He could be. as you suggest, squeaky clean. He could also be a venal cad willing to do anything to advance his position, or pretty much anything in between.  We don't know.

I don't know what it is he might know about.  Given his position as one of Robert's squires, he would be an ideal candidate for participation in just about any plot with or against just about anyone in Kings Landing at the time.  The possibilities are just about endless.

Given our lack of knowledge about him, and the wide array of activities he might have been involved in,  I suspect that George is holding him in reserve until he can prove useful in somebody's storyline.  That also goes for how he got out of Kings Landing.  He could have been spirited out by Varys, for example, or could have left on his own, especially if he was worried about being killed to keep him quiet.  As a Lannister, he would have access to money, and could live in hiding for some time on that.

I will be definitely looking out for a blonde squire type in his early to mid-teens.

[sweetsunray]

16 hours ago, Nevets said:

And they acted with great discretion, so I doubt there is any proof to be had.

Did they? They were not acting with great discretion when Bran could catch them in the act, or when they fucked with Robert sleeping on a rug at their feet, or when Jaime fucked her beside the body of dead Joffrey in Baelor's Sept. I would never refer to such behavior as discreet at all, let alone "with great discretion", but the opposite - quite reckless. And it depicts they got a thrill out of sleeping with each other in risky circumstances.

16 hours ago, Nevets said:

Cersei was arrested for killing the previous High Septon, not Robert.  

Hmmm, let's see

Quote

"In time," said the High Septon. "You also stand accused of conspiring at the murder of your own lord husband, our late beloved King Robert, First of His Name."

Lancel, Cersei thought. "Robert was killed by a boar. Do they say I am a skinchanger now? A warg? Am I accused of killing Joffrey too, my own sweet son, my firstborn?"

"No. Just your husband. Do you deny it?" (aDwD, Cersei I)

 

As for Tyrek's personality: doesn't matter. He was too young when he disappeared to be sexually active, and only Lancel was implied to having been actively trying to do stuff for Cersei. Lancel is a sinner, repentant sure, but he's got blood on his hands and can be painted as a jilted lover. Cersei's defence cannot do that with Tyrek.  And Tyrek independently corroborating Cersei's words that gave Lancel the idea would certainly boost her guilt in the eyes of judges. 

[Nevets]

6 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

They were not acting with great discretion when Bran could catch them in the act

They waited until practically everyone was out of the castle, and then went to the mist remote part of Winterfell.  That shows discretion.  It was sheer bad luck that got them caught by Bran, not lack of discretion on their part.

6 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

Hmmm, let's see

Quote

"In time," said the High Septon. "You also stand accused of conspiring at the murder of your own lord husband, our late beloved King Robert, First of His Name."

Lancel, Cersei thought. "Robert was killed by a boar. Do they say I am a skinchanger now? A warg? Am I accused of killing Joffrey too, my own sweet son, my firstborn?"

"No. Just your husband. Do you deny it?" (aDwD, Cersei I)

This is what I get for not having the books handy and relying on the wiki.  In any event, the case against Cersei is a weak one.  He really was killed by a boar he stupidly got in the way of.

6 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

As for Tyrek's personality: doesn't matter. He was too young when he disappeared to be sexually active, and only Lancel was implied to having been actively trying to do stuff for Cersei.

I think it is possible that he was Cersei's backup plan if the wine didn't work out.   For example, he could have been tasked with "accidentally" shooting Robert.  I'll bet someone was.  Hunting accidents were sometimes used to get rid of Kings in the Middle Ages.

And considering his position, the likelihood that he was involved in somebody's plan against somebody else is quite high.  This could easily give him knowledge that could prove dangerous or that he might think was dangerous..

[cpg2016]

On 7/26/2019 at 7:03 PM, sweetsunray said:

Thank you. (Gal actually)

Apologies!  You know what they say about assumptions...