Alternative Map: If Stannis Won the Battle of Blackwater

[whiplashoo21]

This is my take on what a victorious Stannis timeline would look like on a map:

https://imgur.com/a/ddUExKc

A quick summary:

Having secured the Crownlands and large swathes of the Riverlands, Stormlands and Westerlands regions, Stannis Baratheon is now facing Dorne from the South and Robb Stark’s Forces that are coming from the North. Meanwhile, the defeated Lannisters struggle to keep their main fortresses at the west. The more powerful houses of the Reach are still loyal to Renly Baratheon, while the plan of the Ironborn to target Winterfell is underway.

 

Map created with https://mapchart.net 

 

 

[Aebram]

Interesting that this post got over a hundred views, but no replies till now? Nice job on the map; that obviously took some work. But there are so many points in the story where it's possible to play this kind of what-if game ... Can you fill in some details to add some depth? Maybe a timeline, or some discussion of troop strengths, and the strategy and tactics of the various Lords. How did Stannis even win the battle? Was there no wildfire, no "Renly's ghost?"

[nyser1]

27 minutes ago, Aebram said:

Interesting that this post got over a hundred views, but no replies till now? Nice job on the map; that obviously took some work. But there are so many points in the story where it's possible to play this kind of what-if game ... Can you fill in some details to add some depth? Maybe a timeline, or some discussion of troop strengths, and the strategy and tactics of the various Lords. How did Stannis even win the battle? Was there no wildfire, no "Renly's ghost?"

I agree, I would love to hear more details. Did LF fail to broker the Lannister-Tyrell alliance before Blackwater? Did he succeed but they did not show up in time? What about Tyrion's plans?

 

Did Stannis manage to rally the infantry at Bitterbridge? Etc.

[GallowsKnight]

It's really a great map.

Though I don't think Doran Martell would enter the war at this point. It doesn't really fit his actions in the series. I think he'd make vague committal noises to Stannis' regime whilst sending no men and plotting around Daenarys. At the most maybe the Red Viper is sent as an emissary (with a secret mission of making sure all the Lannisters die).

Likewise I don't know about Robb. There's really no incentive anymore for him to march further South if Joffrey is dethroned. Especially if Stannis has Sansa or Sansa was dead (Cersei had planned to kill her with herself, but Sansa eventually slipped away to her own chambers and might have been overlooked).

If Sansa is alive, I'm sure Catelyn and maybe Davos (though would he be rescued if Stannis won? Hard to say as it was very lucky), could hammer out Robb surrendering his crown. Robb can plead ignorance to the incest. Catelyn would be scared of shadow asssassins. Robb's Northerners want to focus on getting their lands back and his River-men might settled for some captured Westerlands.

I think the real conflict is the civil war over the Reach. There's a chunk of lesser but still important Reachmen (Florent, Fossoway, Meadows, Mullendore, Varner, Willum and Crane) with Stannis, but also a bunch of more important who left with Loras (Tarly, Oakhart, Rowan) or were absent (Hightower, Redwyne). The Reachmen who fought with Stannis are probably going to now be fireforged in their loyalty to them and keen to take over their overlords lands. 

I think Really most of the conflict is going to be Stannis in the Reach. Robb moving against the Ironborn, maybe a coalition of forces moping up the Westerlands.

Edit: Wait it really depends on what happened at Blackwater? Did Tywin and the Tyrells commmit and lose? Or did only Tywin commit and lose? Or are they both still on the board.

If Tywin is on the board, Stannis and Robb probably have to factor him into their plans.

[Tyrion1991]

On 7/20/2019 at 12:35 PM, whiplashoo21 said:

This is my take on what a victorious Stannis timeline would look like on a map:

https://imgur.com/a/ddUExKc

A quick summary:

Having secured the Crownlands and large swathes of the Riverlands, Stormlands and Westerlands regions, Stannis Baratheon is now facing Dorne from the South and Robb Stark’s Forces that are coming from the North. Meanwhile, the defeated Lannisters struggle to keep their main fortresses at the west. The more powerful houses of the Reach are still loyal to Renly Baratheon, while the plan of the Ironborn to target Winterfell is underway.

 

Map created with https://mapchart.net 

 

 

 

Well the issue is that Stannis probably could never have won the Battle of the Blackwater. He was outnumbered over 5 to 1. I think he was meant to have 30k but Tywin had 60k and Tyrell 100k. Then also against the walls of a city and it’s own garrison; which due to Tyrion led to his host being mauled after crossing a river. It’s too much. Tywin is kind of right that Tyrion’s defence wasn’t that important in the end.

In order to win he would have to have somehow pulled an Agincourt on Tywins army and then take the city. Then hunt down and kill Tommen.

But if he did win. I think the Reach would swing again and probably outright join him. The death of his incest nephews would mean no claimant they could rally behind and so they would have no reason to back Tywin. Assuming Tywin is still alive since returning to the Westerlands would be difficult.

Dorne has no real reason to come out since their master plan is to back Dany. So they won’t crown Marcella (or give her to the Tyrell’s) and can just make terms with Stannis.

TBH if tywin died the Westerlands would also probably make peace as there’s no longer a Baratheon claimant since Stannis kills Joffrey and Tommen and Marcella is a woman.

Rob has barely got any men. I can’t see him surviving against Stannis who by now would be King and gaining allies. The Northern army was fracturing and breaking apart. The best he could hope would be to retreat behind Moat Calin.

But then Stannis is good with ships. He could add the Redwyne and Lannister fleets to his own and then use them to break Greyjoy and Stark; bypassing Moat Calin.

He could them take White Harbour and the north loses its only port city (taxes) before he impoverished country suffers mass famine in the winter. This would force Lord Stark to bend the knee.

 

[GallowsKnight]

1 hour ago, Tyrion1991 said:

 

Well the issue is that Stannis probably could never have won the Battle of the Blackwater. He was outnumbered over 5 to 1. I think he was meant to have 30k but Tywin had 60k and Tyrell 100k. Then also against the walls of a city and it’s own garrison; which due to Tyrion led to his host being mauled after crossing a river. It’s too much. Tywin is kind of right that Tyrion’s defence wasn’t that important in the end.

In order to win he would have to have somehow pulled an Agincourt on Tywins army and then take the city. Then hunt down and kill Tommen.

But if he did win. I think the Reach would swing again and probably outright join him. The death of his incest nephews would mean no claimant they could rally behind and so they would have no reason to back Tywin. Assuming Tywin is still alive since returning to the Westerlands would be difficult.

Dorne has no real reason to come out since their master plan is to back Dany. So they won’t crown Marcella (or give her to the Tyrell’s) and can just make terms with Stannis.

TBH if tywin died the Westerlands would also probably make peace as there’s no longer a Baratheon claimant since Stannis kills Joffrey and Tommen and Marcella is a woman.

Rob has barely got any men. I can’t see him surviving against Stannis who by now would be King and gaining allies. The Northern army was fracturing and breaking apart. The best he could hope would be to retreat behind Moat Calin.

But then Stannis is good with ships. He could add the Redwyne and Lannister fleets to his own and then use them to break Greyjoy and Stark; bypassing Moat Calin.

He could them take White Harbour and the north loses its only port city (taxes) before he impoverished country suffers mass famine in the winter. This would force Lord Stark to bend the knee.

 

Stannis would have won if his ships weren't delayed by storms for more than a week. He had won by the time Tywin turned up, basically in less than a day. The city was leaderless, Tyrion was bleeding out on the field, Joffrey was hiding, Goldcloaks were throwing down their weapons and Stannis' land forces were mostly unharmed, half of whom had crossed the blackwater. His fleet was devastated but he still had a half a dozen ships upriver that would latter scuttle themselves and others outside the chain. 

It's only when Tywin and the Tyrells arrive he loses.

So if he did that a week earlier he has time to secure Kingslanding, Storm the Red Keep and prepare for Tywin. Stannis had about 21k men (3k men he had raised, 2k mercenaries and 16k mostly cavalry from Renly) plus his fleet. So he likely has about 15-20k holding Kingslanding if he wins, depending on losses.

Tywin had about 30k men not 60k, the Tyrells had about 60k not 100k. They had the 5k horse that left with Loras after Renly's death and the remaining 60kg foot minus whoever was killed in the squabble over them at Bitterbridge.

I think the Tyrells would not commit to attacking with Tywin if Joffrey was dead, Kinglsanding was taken and Tommen missing. Attacking by surprise an army engaged in storming a city with overwhelming forces is one thing. Attacking some 20k professional troops entrenched behind walls is another thing.

Especially when a bunch of them are your bannermen and some of your forces are their foot soldiers (and even some Stormlanders foot soldiers presumably). It's going to be very bloody. They might consider siege but they might not be able to feed their men (and that gives Stannis and Melissandre time to create another animated shadow).

So I think what happens in the Tyrells probably withdraw to the reach (after losing bannermen and soldiers to Stannis) to consolidate their loyalists and wait for the Tywin-Stark-Baratheon factions to fight it out so they can back a winner. Tywin might book it back to the Westerlands with Tommen to try and preserve what he can. It depends if Robb could actually pull of his plan to beat Tywin on his home-ground or not.

Either way I think you have a lot of mopping up by Stannis and some sort of negotiation with the North to bring them back in.