Could Dany conquer Dorne with a Dothraki horde?

[Tyrion1991]

A lot of people are saying that Dorne can’t be conquered and has never fallen to an invader. They said exactly the same thing about the North and then Ironborn. They said Storms End and Moat Calin couldn’t fall and they did; easily. So I really think some suspicion is needed whenever a faction claims they are invincible and can’t be conquered. Especially when Doran has already admitted Dorne exaggerates it’s strength and number of troops largely from its past reputation.

So Danys ancestor Aegon failed to conquer Dorne because they used guerilla tactics and surrendered the country. 

Now, this tactic worked wonders against a Tyrell host of knights not used to the weather and climate. Lots of heavy horse and infantry in these big columns that were easy for the Dornish to raid.

Which I can’t envisage occurring with the Dothraki and I think Dorne trying the same playbook could be disastrous. The Dothraki army is extremely mobile, consists of large amounts of light cavalry and are familiar with fighting in warm climates. They are THE definitive raiders and could chase down or even hunt the Dornish. Even IF Dany decides to check the violence of the Dothraki we see what they do to places they capture in Lhazar. When the Martells abandoned the useless and weak; the Knights of Summer didn’t kill them but the Dothraki would. Millions of Dornish would die and the Dothraki would strip the land bare. Once that happens, there won’t be any food and water; which would cause starvation. At that point they can either ask for terms or flee the country.

Also, I think it’s very likely that Dany is going to cause another great migration like Nymeria. Certainly the Dothraki and I hope also the freed slaves of Essos. If the Dornish surrender the country then she can just people it with Ghiscari and Dothraki settlements filled with people loyal to her. This won’t be just an army of conquest Dorne is fighting like with Aegon. Which opens up a possibility not available to Aegon in that she can conquer Dorne without conquering the Dornish. 

Plus Dany has at the end of ADWD went full Fire and Blood. So there isn’t going to be any slow escalation like there was with Aegon. If Dorne fights then she probably will just destroy Sunspear and any castle whilst the Dothraki pillage the countryside.

Really, Dorne would need to defeat the Dothraki in battle like the Mamlucks did to the Mongols. But, the mongols didn’t have dragons. 

Could the old playbook work? Maybe George will go there, but I think George drew inspiration from the Crusades with the Dornish war and that’s not applicable to what’s essentially a Mongol invasion. If they surrender the country then they’ll all die of hunger and thirst.

[Lord Browndodd]

Trying to find fodder for a horse-based army in a desert would be a logistical nightmare.

[the Other Wolf]

^ this and finding enough fresh water to get across the deserts from castle to castle. 

[Tyrion1991]

2 hours ago, Lord Browndodd said:

Trying to find fodder for a horse-based army in a desert would be a logistical nightmare.

 

The Dornish manage it. So there are wells and food stores in Dorne. Which the Dornish have given them by refusing to fight. Plus you can bring in supplies from the coast and along rivers. Which is where people live. If they run into the desert then the Dornish people would have the same problems. Large numbers of People don’t live in the deep desert for a reason. If the entire population of Cairo ran into the Sahara it would not end well.

It also depends on how big the force is. Five thousand could do the job and especially if the Dornish hosts are North with Aegon. They would just destroy the country and take all the food and water. I doubt Dany would it could send a million Dothraki into Westeros.

I must admit I don’t like the “guerilla warfare is invincible” handwave. You could make that argument about any part of Westeros. If you burn all the crops, poison all the wells and destroy all the shelter in an age when you need to collect the harvest and don’t have tinned food guerilla warfare just doesn’t work. Never mind that all your vassals have to agree to their lands being plundered and the earth salted. That should force a fight because those Lords should face ruin. In the story George basically has to explain away that the dragons are never able to catch the Dornish in the open (even outside of Dorne itself) and able to support the entire urban population in the deep desert. Neither seems realistic IMO. 

Also the Mongols weren’t stopped in Iran and Iraq which are comparable to Dorne in climate. So you can bring get horse armies across deserts.

I think this myth of Dornish invincibility and the unbowed, unbent, unbroken is intended to be hot air. Doran admits that he only has a fraction of the 50,000 spears he claims to have. It’s being constantly oversold to us. There has to be something stopping Dany just levelling Sunspear and driving the people into the wastes to die of thirst. I don’t see what that is. Especially if the Dornish host is absent or waiting at the boneway pass and Dany rocks up.

Also, Aegon had to push through the mountains to get at Dorne. Whereas Dany is coming from the sea like Nymeria. So there’s less physical obstacles in her way.

 

 

[The Young Maester]

Anything is conquerable. Dorne isn't an exception to that. Youll probably have an easier time conquering Dorne than the Vale or the North. If the Dothraki have trouble feeding their horses, just stick to the rivers and the coast, where the grass is plentiful. And no doubt the dornish keep many wells around their villages and towns in order to survive the harsh climate. The one thing the Dothraki ought to watch out for is the Dornish Spears, the dornish can easily choose a good defensive ground to lure the Dothraki in. 

If the dornish have marched north to kings landing with Aegon, then it's gonna be bowed, bent, broken for the Dornish. The Dothraki are gonna have an easy time conquering the undefended kingdom, tho the Dornish will still put up a strong fight.

[The Sunland Lord]

It is said that Moat Calin defense applies for a southern invasion, and the Ironborn attacked from the coast. The barely defended North due to the army which marched south. 

[Tyrion1991]

13 minutes ago, The Sunland Lord said:

It is said that Moat Calin defense applies for a southern invasion, and the Ironborn attacked from the coast. The barely defended North due to the army which marched south. 

 

Yes but the Ironborn are a southern army and Moat Calin is there to be a key part of the myth of Northern invincibility. The North’s never been conquered, the Kings of the North have beaten armies ten times that size and yet almost the whole country gets conquered by a third rate power because Rob Stark was an idiot who didn’t realise how many enemies he had.

My point is that George has a habit of building up these myths of the untakable  castle, the ever victorious army and the country that can never be conquered. George seems to be pointing out that myths aren’t set in stone and can become dangerously complacent because people can change the rules of the game. Going around Moat Calin for example and emptying the North of soldiers.

So it’s quite likely he’s doing the same with Dorne. We are beaten over the head with how Dorne has never been conquered and were able to defeat the dragons. Never mind that Doran is very close to doing exactly what Rob did if he joins Aegon.

Plus Dany is more comparable to Nymeria conquering Dorne from the sea than a land based army through the mountains like Aegon did. Also Doran has not remotely prepared like the Yellow Toad presumably did for fighting the dragons. She had several years to plan this all out. Doran is not planning to fight Dany so he’s totally unprepared.

Also, it would sort of make sense for Dany to achieve something Aegon failed to do. 

[The Sunland Lord]

Ironborn are not from the south, they are from the Iron Islands. 

[Tyrion1991]

10 minutes ago, The Sunland Lord said:

Ironborn are not from the south, they are from the Iron Islands. 

 

Theyre still south of the North. So from the Northern perspective they are all Southern Andal Devils. I am assuming all these “the Nurth has never been conquered in ten thousand years” includes the Ironborn. They did control Bear Island at one point so they were fighting.

I don’t think the Northerners know enough about the 7 Kingdoms to care. They can’t tell that they’re kin with the Wildlings and feel they have more in common with the Dreadfort. These are the actions of an ignorant society. Outside of Bear Island I don’t rate any of the Northerners as anything other than hypocrites and windbags obsessed with this myth of Northern Destiny. They think they’re some sort of master race because they broke the compact with the Children and live somewhere too cold to conquer. Kings of Winter my ass. 

[hnv]

4 hours ago, Tyrion1991 said:

 

Yes but the Ironborn are a southern army and Moat Calin is there to be a key part of the myth of Northern invincibility. The North’s never been conquered, the Kings of the North have beaten armies ten times that size and yet almost the whole country gets conquered by a third rate power because Rob Stark was an idiot who didn’t realise how many enemies he had.

My point is that George has a habit of building up these myths of the untakable  castle, the ever victorious army and the country that can never be conquered. George seems to be pointing out that myths aren’t set in stone and can become dangerously complacent because people can change the rules of the game. Going around Moat Calin for example and emptying the North of soldiers.

So it’s quite likely he’s doing the same with Dorne. We are beaten over the head with how Dorne has never been conquered and were able to defeat the dragons. Never mind that Doran is very close to doing exactly what Rob did if he joins Aegon.

Plus Dany is more comparable to Nymeria conquering Dorne from the sea than a land based army through the mountains like Aegon did. Also Doran has not remotely prepared like the Yellow Toad presumably did for fighting the dragons. She had several years to plan this all out. Doran is not planning to fight Dany so he’s totally unprepared.

Also, it would sort of make sense for Dany to achieve something Aegon failed to do. 

The Ironmen never conquered the north, they held three castles and then 2 while the majority of the land was free, even the lands around those castles seems relatively unharmed from their presence as they had too little men to exercise effective control. And in that case they aren't different from the Arryns who managed to hold lands around the area of white harbor in the past.

[Free Northman Reborn]

5 hours ago, Tyrion1991 said:

 

Yes but the Ironborn are a southern army and Moat Calin is there to be a key part of the myth of Northern invincibility. The North’s never been conquered, the Kings of the North have beaten armies ten times that size and yet almost the whole country gets conquered by a third rate power because Rob Stark was an idiot who didn’t realise how many enemies he had.

My point is that George has a habit of building up these myths of the untakable  castle, the ever victorious army and the country that can never be conquered. George seems to be pointing out that myths aren’t set in stone and can become dangerously complacent because people can change the rules of the game. Going around Moat Calin for example and emptying the North of soldiers.

So it’s quite likely he’s doing the same with Dorne. We are beaten over the head with how Dorne has never been conquered and were able to defeat the dragons. Never mind that Doran is very close to doing exactly what Rob did if he joins Aegon.

Plus Dany is more comparable to Nymeria conquering Dorne from the sea than a land based army through the mountains like Aegon did. Also Doran has not remotely prepared like the Yellow Toad presumably did for fighting the dragons. She had several years to plan this all out. Doran is not planning to fight Dany so he’s totally unprepared.

Also, it would sort of make sense for Dany to achieve something Aegon failed to do. 

George said that this wasn’t the first southron army that circumvented Moat Cailin. The North’s history is long, and he hasn’t told it all to us. Not will he, he says.

Large parts of the North have been taken and even held for a few generations by the Ironborn before. Andal armies have invaded up the Weeping Water, and slavers and pirates have threatened the White Knife.

In the end, no one could HOLD the North.

[Loose Bolt]

If a winter is long and harsh all coasts of the North will froze and so anybody who needs ships to survive will have massive problems. So I assume that during long winters IB will stay away from the North  

[BalerionTheCat]

7 hours ago, Tyrion1991 said:

My point is that George has a habit of building up these myths of the untakable  castle, the ever victorious army and the country that can never be conquered.

This is quite possible IMO.

But Dany would not be Nymeria. She would not marry a Martell. Then conquer the remaining rebel houses with him. Aegon failed because he had no qualms burning armies on the battlefield. But he stopped at burning cities and non-fighting people. To conquer Dorme, Daenerys will need to scorch everything. Maybe she will. If pushed by Dothrakis, red priests and sellswords... The Fire counterpart of the Ice threat. 

[Tyrion1991]

27 minutes ago, BalerionTheCat said:

This is quite possible IMO.

But Dany would not be Nymeria. She would not marry a Martell. Then conquer the remaining rebel houses with him. Aegon failed because he had no qualms burning armies on the battlefield. But he stopped at burning cities and non-fighting people. To conquer Dorme, Daenerys will need to scorch everything. Maybe she will. If pushed by Dothrakis, red priests and sellswords... The Fire counterpart of the Ice threat. 

 

I know, Brans already being corrupted by the Three Eyed Crow. Jon’s on his way to becoming the Night King. Arya is eating people and has joined a Cthulhu cult. Sansa is about to murder her cousin and become the Bat lady of Harrenhal. Somebody needs to kill all the Starks and end the Children’s conspiracy to destroy humanity. If we kill all the Starks then that will cut off the magic feeding the Others return. If they are cold made flesh then they are part of that magic and have got to go. If you just kill Dany then you’ll have Ice become supreme because of Bran.

I mean it would be rather odd for Dany to be the source of all fire magic, requiring her death and yet the Ice comes from this inhuman source that can be destroyed separately to the Starks and the Children of the Forest. It’s not balance unless both the families of ice and fire die. 

Fun fact: Stark spelt backwards without the K is Rats.

 

 

 

[sweetsunray]

3 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

In the end, no one could HOLD the North.

^this.

And the same applies for Dorne. Dorne was conquered. Castles were taken.  Castles were burned. The Dornish don't have a problem with leaving the castle and have it be taken. They strike back on ground they know guerilla way. 

The Dothraki are good in open field and raiding cities. In Essos they pay the Dothraki to prevent them from doing it. But the Dornish don't care. And mountain passes and Boneways and desert? Someone claims the Dornish manage with their horses... but here the same parallel applies as with the North. Stannis's horses for example die at a higher rate than the Northern garrons. The Dornish have their own horsebreed that has adapted to the climate. Have Dothraki horses? I doubt it: cfr. Red Waste

So, sure, the Dothraki could take castles, but in theory won't conquer the Dornish, nor hold it, not even if a significant part of the Dornish hosts are in the marches.  And the Dornish don't mind using poison to kill. 

[Tyrion1991]

I see, being edgy and using poison makes Dorne invincible? What are the Dornish meant to drink if they poison their own wells?

Dorne is a desert but desert regions actually have been conquered and change hands quite frequently. Rome managed to conquer Carthage and North Africa; holding it for centuries. The Spanish took Spain back from the Moors. It’s as if George read about the Battle of Hattin and then inferred that desert regions are impossible to conquer. 

Desert nations actually don’t have a reputation for being impossible to conquer and hold in the real world. There’s no real meat behind this concept. With the North that analogy is very obviously Russia and there is a touch more weight behind that.

I don’t buy that. I could sit back and say that the Westerlands are impossible to conquer because the country is full of high mountains and any army approaching Casterly Rock would be harried by locals who know the lay of the land and could apply scorched earth tactics. 

Anyone can refuse to give battle and rely on raiding. Tywin does this in the Riverlands to Rob Stark. Starvation actually afflicts every army no matter where it’s deployed. We see starvation in the North, we see it in the Riverlands and we see it in warm climates like Mereen.

To give an example where this scorched earth tactics does not work, the Mereenese try to ravage the countryside and hold the city rather than give battle. The hope was that her army would starve outside Mereen. However, they didn’t realise Dany could gain entrance to their city and could break up her ships for siege engines. So refusing to give battle and relying on raiding/environment doesn’t always work. It’s more nuanced than that. 

George basically talks this up with Dorne and has been selling the myth of Dornish invincibility. That they’ll never break. Which almost every tyrant claims about their people and means nothing. But it’s not really clever and it can go horribly wrong. If it was an auto win then everyone would do it and nobody would fight conventional battles. 

 

[Crona]

53 minutes ago, Tyrion1991 said:

 

To give an example where this scorched earth tactics does not work, the Mereenese try to ravage the countryside and hold the city rather than give battle. The hope was that her army would starve outside Mereen. However, they didn’t realise Dany could gain entrance to their city and could break up her ships for siege engines. So refusing to give battle and relying on raiding/environment doesn’t always work. It’s more nuanced than that. 

 

 

But the Dornish usually abandon their holdings then reclaim it once the army leaves. Also, if I remember correctly Dany had relied on the slaves to rebel but the dornish will not rebel against their lords. Not to mention Dorne is a lot bigger than Mereen and their coastal areas are known to be difficult to port and their mountains are difficult to go through. So her army will need to carry around their equipment through the desert while being constantly attacked and facing the harsh sun. Even if she does conquer if she doesn’t give any sort of agreement with the dornish then she will have constant rebellions to put down. All this work for a land that is barely worth the trouble. 

[Tyrion1991]

5 minutes ago, Crona said:

But the Dornish usually abandon their holdings then reclaim it once the army leaves. Also, if I remember correctly Dany had relied on the slaves to rebel but the dornish will not rebel against their lords. Not to mention Dorne is a lot bigger than Mereen and their coastal areas are known to be difficult to port and their mountains are difficult to go through. So her army will need to carry around their equipment through the desert while being constantly attacked and facing the harsh sun. Even if she does conquer if she doesn’t give any sort of agreement with the dornish then she will have constant rebellions to put down. All this work for a land that is barely worth the trouble. 

 

How was Rome able to conquer North Africa?

How were the Mongols able to conquer Iran?

All of the reasons you list should have made these conquests impossible. Yet they happened. Desert regions are not impossible to conquer. If anything, the first empires arose in these regions and they are easier to conquer because the population is concentrated in cities and river valleys.

With Russia you can actually point and say “never been conquered due to harsh winter”. The same cannot be said of desert regions generally.

If the country is so harsh and inhospitable then this should be a weakness. Drone shouldn’t be able to support a large population or wage a protracted war if its like the Sahara. It shouldn’t be able to wage an effective guerilla war if it’s like Egypt because they need the tax base, food and water. Millions of people can’t just flee into the deserts and abandon the river valleys. A town dweller in Sunsoear should be as useless in the desert as a Ghiscari.

The way George describes it Dorne simultaneously has more people in it than medieval Egypt, Syria or Iraq and a similar level of wealth (making it worth conquering) but can suddenly revert to being nomadic tribes at the drop of a hat whilst still having the manpower to launch invasions into the Reach and Stormlands. Either it’s a rich country like Egypt or it’s the Sahara; George is saying it’s both. This doesn’t add up to me.

For example, if the rivers are not navigable then how is Dorne rich? How does it have towns? How can the Martells govern the country? How does an army from Sunspear cross all these impassable deserts to the boneway if they are the equivalent of the Sahara?

 

[nyser1]

2 minutes ago, Tyrion1991 said:

 

How was Rome able to conquer North Africa?

How were the Mongols able to conquer Iran?

All of the reasons you list should have made these conquests impossible. Yet they happened. Desert regions are not impossible to conquer. If anything, the first empires arose in these regions and they are easier to conquer because the population is concentrated in cities and river valleys.

With Russia you can actually point and say “never been conquered due to harsh winter”. The same cannot be said of desert regions generally.

If the country is so harsh and inhospitable then this should be a weakness. Drone shouldn’t be able to support a large population or wage a protracted war if its like the Sahara. It shouldn’t be able to wage an effective guerilla war if it’s like Egypt because they need the tax base, food and water. Millions of people can’t just flee into the deserts and abandon the river valleys. A town dweller in Sunsoear should be as useless in the desert as a Ghiscari.

The way George describes it Dorne simultaneously has more people in it than medieval Egypt, Syria or Iraq and a similar level of wealth (making it worth conquering) but can suddenly revert to being nomadic tribes at the drop of a hat whilst still having the manpower to launch invasions into the Reach and Stormlands. Either it’s a rich country like Egypt or it’s the Sahara; George is saying it’s both. This doesn’t add up to me.

For example, if the rivers are not navigable then how is Dorne rich? How does it have towns? How can the Martells govern the country? How does an army from Sunspear cross all these impassable deserts to the boneway if they are the equivalent of the Sahara?

 

 Rome's conquest of North Africa did not go far into the dessert (the Northern coast with a Med climate & vegetation plus along the Nile). I do agree with the rest of the post though :).

[Crona]

3 minutes ago, Tyrion1991 said:

 

How was Rome able to conquer North Africa?

How were the Mongols able to conquer Iran?

All of the reasons you list should have made these conquests impossible. Yet they happened. Desert regions are not impossible to conquer. If anything, the first empires arose in these regions and they are easier to conquer because the population is concentrated in cities and river valleys.

With Russia you can actually point and say “never been conquered due to harsh winter”. The same cannot be said of desert regions generally.

If the country is so harsh and inhospitable then this should be a weakness. Drone shouldn’t be able to support a large population or wage a protracted war if its like the Sahara. It shouldn’t be able to wage an effective guerilla war if it’s like Egypt because they need the tax base, food and water. Millions of people can’t just flee into the deserts and abandon the river valleys. A town dweller in Sunsoear should be as useless in the desert as a Ghiscari.

The way George describes it Dorne simultaneously has more people in it than medieval Egypt, Syria or Iraq and a similar level of wealth (making it worth conquering) but can suddenly revert to being nomadic tribes at the drop of a hat whilst still having the manpower to launch invasions into the Reach and Stormlands. Either it’s a rich country like Egypt or it’s the Sahara; George is saying it’s both. This doesn’t add up to me.

For example, if the rivers are not navigable then how is Dorne rich? How does it have towns? How can the Martells govern the country? How does an army from Sunspear cross all these impassable deserts to the boneway if they are the equivalent of the Sahara?

 

I don’t know how Rome or the Mongols conquered those areas and those examples really don’t hold weight to a fantasy world. I also don’t know about those conquests so I can’t really speak to them.

‘Actually Daeron and pretty much Aegon conquered Dorne. Daeron was very crafty in using the Greenblood which is actually a weak point.  The problem was that they had difficulty holding the place because there was constant rebellions and whoever they appointed would be overthrown. 

Dorne doesn’t really have cities or towns, the only ones they have is the Greenblood and the Shadow City. It is inhospitable and the ones who live there had to adapt to the climate and uses their resources for the best they can. We don’t have enough information to show us how the Dornish were able to be so mobile during conquests but I suspect they may have a tunnel system. 

Their rivers are mobile and the Greenblood is a weak point, but the issue is that it is hard to hold a place where the people don’t want you there and you have to constantly fight them. The Martells hold Dorne by sheer loyalty, in fact I am sure many houses can defeat the Martells within Dorne.