williamjm Posted August 4, 2019 Share Posted August 4, 2019 1 hour ago, The Winged Shadow said: I think it's heading towards a draw. Australia won't risk anything less than 300, but even a 300 target might feel risky with so many stroke players in England's lineup. Bairstow, Roy, Buttler, Stokes etc can be quite dangerous if they go ODI mode. But Aussies are definitely in the driving seat and has a better chance of winning than England. They need to bowl really well though. Hopefully the bowlers got plenty of rest. I don't think England have any prospect of winning now, so the question is whether they can manage to draw the game. There may be some rain tomorrow, which would help. It might depend a lot on how Nathan Lyon bowls, he could be the key player since the pitch isn't offering much to the seamers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeor Posted August 5, 2019 Author Share Posted August 5, 2019 I think this is also where England's long batting lineup helps, as well. We saw how even the 9th wicket partnership between Broad and Woakes offered a lot of resistance. If England can avoid wickets falling in clumps, they have plenty of depth to take whatever Australia can throw at them. They will probably still need some help from the weather but by all accounts it looks like some overs will be lost due to showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cholobet Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 On 7/24/2019 at 7:13 PM, Mosi Mynn said: Oh I see what's happening: it's a four day Test - so England are in a hurry It seems like it. They are pretty much in a hurry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeor Posted August 5, 2019 Author Share Posted August 5, 2019 Regardless of the result of this Test, I think Australia will be pretty happy with how it turned out. The weakest part of the team (middle order) seems temporarily solved with a Head half-century and Wade century. Khawaja has earned enough cred in recent years for his selection to be safe, and Smith obviously picks himself. That settles most of the bating except for the openers, both Bancroft and Warner failed both times, and the bowlers, who did let England score almost 400 in the first innings. A lot will depend on how they go today, but the bowling situation will probably be pretty flexible throughout the series. I expect Bancroft will be given one more Test and if he fails both times again he will probably be replaced. Warner obviously will have much more rope and probably last the whole series even if his performances are crap throughout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lmanion Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 That's the thing with Warner though isn't it his performances might be crap throughout but sometime in the next 2-3 matches he will play 1 innings that blows the game apart as much as we all hate him that's just what he does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeor Posted August 5, 2019 Author Share Posted August 5, 2019 6 minutes ago, lmanion said: That's the thing with Warner though isn't it his performances might be crap throughout but sometime in the next 2-3 matches he will play 1 innings that blows the game apart as much as we all hate him that's just what he does. Yes, I hope his career ends after this series but it's unlikely. His potential for a destructive century is what will make selectors keep faith with him for the series, even if it doesn't look like coming anytime soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ants Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 4 down at lunch and I’m off to bed. Can’t even record it as I can’t record channel 9. Damn it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeor Posted August 5, 2019 Author Share Posted August 5, 2019 Well this hasn't quite gone to plan for England. They started pretty well and even 4 wickets down at lunch they had a chance to hold out. But in the half hour after lunch losing 3 wickets straight away has really hurt them. Cummins and Lyon the best of the bowlers with 3 and 4 wickets respectively. Cummins had a quiet first innings but he's brought his game today when it was needed. Dunno what the forecast is like but I won't be counting any chickens until all 10 are taken. It'd be just like Ali to rediscover form today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paxter Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 All over red rover. This is why England lost dismally in the West Indies and many pundits were tipping an Australian win in this series. Next up is Lord’s, where England has a very bad losing record in Ashes contests... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeor Posted August 5, 2019 Author Share Posted August 5, 2019 The Roy dismissal is really instructive of the rot here. If anyone needed a picture perfect example of the difference between ODI and Test cricket, his whole innings just told you. No staying power, couldn't block - out bowled charging a spinner on a 5th day pitch when the target was impossible to get anyway. They've been geared up so much towards the ODI team (which admittedly did work out well for them) it's probably not surprising that the Test batting is a little too aggressive and not long on grit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paxter Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 My question Jeor: do you still see Australia as underdogs in this series? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeor Posted August 5, 2019 Author Share Posted August 5, 2019 11 minutes ago, Paxter said: My question Jeor: do you still see Australia as underdogs in this series? Hmmm...this has been a good performance by Australia (assuming they finish it off) but in a five-Test series I expect England to come back strong. Certainly having a fit Archer instead of a lame Anderson will make them better in the next match. The English bowlers were curiously blunted in that second Australian innings but I think we'll have a few more 8/122s in us yet. That being said, Anderson being missing for multiple matches, and Wade/Head getting scores to up their confidence really alters the calculus of the series....probably swings slightly in Australia's favour. But my 3-1 England prediction still isn't dead yet! Looking dicey, though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paxter Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 Very dicey! I’m starting to think 3-2 Australia was too generous for England. I agree that Jofra would make a difference, but I still think the key issue is the hosts’ batting and there won’t be many changes there. Lyon is having a field day *vomits* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Consigliere Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 Lyon doing what Ali failed miserably at. Ali really has been utter wank in this match and in the most spin friendly conditions one could ever hope for in England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paxter Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 I’m disappointed for Mo. Still think he’s a great tesrbplayer but his inconsistent performances are starting to become an issue. Leach will surely take over from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raja Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 2 minutes ago, Paxter said: I’m disappointed for Mo. Still think he’s a great tesrbplayer but his inconsistent performances are starting to become an issue. Leach will surely take over from here. Samesies - I love Mo but it's tough when someone's got your number like that and you're almost always coming into bat when the team really needs you & the pressure is on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeor Posted August 5, 2019 Author Share Posted August 5, 2019 Yeah, Lyon has really shown up Ali in this match. 6 wickets in the second innings to follow on from his 3 wickets in the first, and it has been a real turner of a pitch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeor Posted August 5, 2019 Author Share Posted August 5, 2019 Even if Moeen plays the next match (unlikely), Woakes should bat at 8. And that's it! A 251-run victory by Australia at Edgbaston of all places, where we traditionally have not done well. Onto Lord's now, which has been a happy hunting ground for Australia. I know Anderson's injury didn't help, but England still had some pretty good chances to win the game but botched it - three times they were strongly ahead and they let it slip (to be fair, Smith had a lot to do with two of them). 1. Australia teetering at 8/122 on the first day, but Smith (and Siddle/Lyon) guide them to 284. 2. England 2/189 in response, the deficit is less than 100 and they had 8 wickets in hand but collapsed. 3. Australia lose Khawaja, the third wicket, and still haven't wiped out the deficit. Australia effectively 3 wickets for -20 runs, but Smith (followed by Head/Wade) builds up a great innings. So although the eventual margin of defeat was large, let's not forget England actually did play pretty well for a lot of the match and gave themselves chances to win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ljkeane Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 2 hours ago, Jeor said: They've been geared up so much towards the ODI team (which admittedly did work out well for them) it's probably not surprising that the Test batting is a little too aggressive and not long on grit. I had no expectation that England were going to be able to bat three sessions on a day five pitch so I didn't even listen to much of the cricket on the radio, let alone watch any, but the Guardian over by over report has an entertaining picture of Roy getting bowled. He's clearly danced down the pitch, back foot in the air, in the process of playing an extravagant flick off his pads, and his stumps are flying all over the place in the background. That's a real ffs moment. Bayliss has been a pretty terrible test coach. Hopefully we'll see more of a focus on the test side under the new regime. 1 hour ago, Jeor said: 2. England 2/189 in response, the deficit is less than 100 and they had 8 wickets in hand but collapsed. In fairness they were screwed over a bit by the change of ball at that point. But, yeah, England had their chances to win this test and let them slip away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
williamjm Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 7 hours ago, Jeor said: The Roy dismissal is really instructive of the rot here. If anyone needed a picture perfect example of the difference between ODI and Test cricket, his whole innings just told you. No staying power, couldn't block - out bowled charging a spinner on a 5th day pitch when the target was impossible to get anyway. They've been geared up so much towards the ODI team (which admittedly did work out well for them) it's probably not surprising that the Test batting is a little too aggressive and not long on grit. That was a real moment of madness. To be fair to the other batsmen they were generally trying to take a more sensible approach, they just weren't very successful at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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