Jump to content

UK Politics: It's Life Pfeffel but not as we know it


HexMachina

Recommended Posts

I've read some articles from credible(-ish) people that Johnson may be just trying to convince everyone that No-Deal is Plan A.  If he is successful in this, it could result in either a new election (which might get him a more workable majority) or force remainers to vote for May's deal. 

A new election could happen, although it's at the very least risky since it seems like a 50/50 shot that he'd lose his majority entirely.  And even if he picked up another thirty seats, so what?  It doesn't change his impossible negotiating position with the EU, so he's still looking at either No-Deal Brexit in October or some complete betrayal of everything he's been saying that brought him into office. 

Which leads us to whether Boris could bring up May's deal at some point.  At the moment that sounds ridiculous, but when late October comes around there will be a lot of people grasping for lifevests.  A complete reversal to accepting another referendum or cancelling no deal is off the table.  Renegotiating with the EU is off the table.  So that just leaves No Deal and May's Deal, and suddenly May's deal is starting to look pretty palatable for a lot of people.  If Johnson could just find a way to blame this retreat on Corbyn and the EU, there's still a chance (albeit a long shot) that it happens. 

Although to answer your question Erik, I have no idea if this is actually strategy.  I'm starting to really wonder if Boris has just drank his own kool-aid and thinks that No Deal won't be that bad, and blaming the downsides on the EU is a viable path forward. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

41 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

A new election could happen, although it's at the very least risky since it seems like a 50/50 shot that he'd lose his majority entirely.  And even if he picked up another thirty seats, so what?  It doesn't change his impossible negotiating position with the EU, so he's still looking at either No-Deal Brexit in October or some complete betrayal of everything he's been saying that brought him into office. 

This is the bit where the timing itself confuses me. Maybe our British boarder can help me get around it.

We know as of now the deadline is October 31st. Halloween madness, and first time the purge will take place - ok, I made the second one up.

So when should a new GE take place? It's summer recess now. And he can hardly get a new snap election done within two weeks.

Next EU summit is in October (around the 15th?), I think.

So can anybody provide me (or us non-uk citizens) with a rough timeline?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

This is the bit where the timing itself confuses me. Maybe our British boarder can help me get around it.

We know as of now the deadline is October 31st. Halloween madness, and first time the purge will take place - ok, I made the second one up.

So when should a new GE take place? It's summer recess now. And he can hardly get a new snap election done within two weeks.

Next EU summit is in October (around the 15th?), I think.

So can anybody provide me (or us non-uk citizens) with a rough timeline?

I forget where, but I read recently that if there is a No Confidence vote as soon as Parliament comes back in early September then there could be a General Election in mid-October. Of course, that doesn't leave much time for whoever the new PM is to do much before the current Brexit date.

7 hours ago, Werthead said:

Six Tories reportedly considering defecting to the LibDems. Phillip Lee is the first to go public and is apparently the closest to going. Assuming the LibDems win today's by-election, that would wipe out the Conservative majority. If the others go, that would give the combined Tories/DUP 5 seats less than needed to form a government, and Labour could then topple the government at will by calling a vote of no confidence (assuming that all the other opposition parties support it, which they probably would).

High stakes time.

If they are going to go then it should probably be soon (before the beginning of September), otherwise there isn't much time. That many defections would seem likely to make it impossible to win a vote of no confidence, there might be a couple of opposition MPs so keen on Brexit that they don't join in with the vote, but not that many.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

This is the bit where the timing itself confuses me. Maybe our British boarder can help me get around it.

We know as of now the deadline is October 31st. Halloween madness, and first time the purge will take place - ok, I made the second one up.

So when should a new GE take place? It's summer recess now. And he can hardly get a new snap election done within two weeks.

Next EU summit is in October (around the 15th?), I think.

So can anybody provide me (or us non-uk citizens) with a rough timeline?

The House resumes on Thursday 5 September, assuming no emergency that forces a recall of Parliament. So if Corbyn theoretically called a vote of no-confidence on 5 September and Johnson lost it, he'd have fourteen days to try to form a government that commanded a majority in the house. It is possible (although highly unlikely) that during this time there could be a Johnson-Corbyn pact to address the issues, although that would be only second to the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact in how unlikely it was.

If Johnson was unable to command a majority by 19 September, the general election process would be set in motion, with Johnson asking the Queen to dissolve Parliament. The date of the election would then be a minimum of seventeen days later, although by Parliamentary custom this would be deferred to the following Thursday, 10 October. So we could have more clarity by Friday 11 October, twenty days before B-Day.

This is why Corbyn can't fuck around. If he's going to pull the trigger, he needs to pull it on the first day back, or at most within a few days, otherwise the deadline gets very tight. The EU summit is on 17-18 October in Finland.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

38 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

This is the bit where the timing itself confuses me. Maybe our British boarder can help me get around it.

We know as of now the deadline is October 31st. Halloween madness, and first time the purge will take place - ok, I made the second one up.

So when should a new GE take place? It's summer recess now. And he can hardly get a new snap election done within two weeks.

Next EU summit is in October (around the 15th?), I think.

So can anybody provide me (or us non-uk citizens) with a rough timeline?

The alternative is that an extension is requested to hold a GE after 31 October. 

Boris might do that himself if the Commons votes against no-deal in October. In extremis a vote of no-confidence could bring to power a new government, maybe headed by a remainer Tory, like Ken Clarke, solely for the purpose of handing in an extension request to hold a GE if Boris was refusing to do this. In this case we wouldn't have to have the election before 31 October. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Thank you.

Now a small follow up question if you will.

Let's assume the GE takes place, and you get another hung parliament. To make things worse in practical terms, the results are such, that neither Corbyn's nor Johnson's position as party leaders are tenable (not that such thoughts of ever bothered Corbyn, but that's another discussion for another day). Assuming Labour loses seats to the LibDems, and Johnson's bold GE tactic backfires for him.

Then what?

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Thank you.

Now a small follow up question if you will.

Let's assume the GE takes place, and you get another hung parliament. To make things worse in practical terms, the results are such, that neither Corbyn's nor Johnson's position as party leaders are tenable (not that such thoughts of ever bothered Corbyn, but that's another discussion for another day). Assuming Labour loses seats to the LibDems, and Johnson's bold GE tactic backfires for him. 

Then what?

 

I am stumped.

Supposing we have a hung Parliament but it has a remainer + Labour majority you have the very tricky question of how Labour, the Liberals and the SNP work together. Labour may not want to revoke article.50 or totally give up on Brexit. The other two will. The Liberals don't really want to work with either Corbyn or the SNP (a different labour leader might be a different proposition). No one wants to give the SNP a new Scottish referendum, likely one of their demands for a coalition, partly as this is a somewhat self-defeating strategy. If they win the referendum you lose your coalition, your majority and your country, and if the SNP lose it they flounce off in a huff and you lose your coalition and your majority.

And supposing all these parties do work together they may fall out over whether to prepare for a second Brexit referendum or just take the defeat of the Tories in the GE as a mandate to revoke article 50. They need some very able leaders to steer through this and there are none. 

I think if Brexit does end up not happening it will be due to slow, grinding, endless paralysis and indecision. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Erik of Hazelfield said:

Is there any kind of (remotely plausible) GE result that could bring Brexit to a close? 

Johnson's tactic works out. He will collect all the Brexit votes. The remain votes are too split, so the Tories win an overall majority. Whether they have the courage to stand up and leave with no-deal, that is another question. But that would at least put an end to the current travesty.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

38 minutes ago, Werthead said:

The House resumes on Thursday 5 September, assuming no emergency that forces a recall of Parliament. So if Corbyn theoretically called a vote of no-confidence on 5 September and Johnson lost it, he'd have fourteen days to try to form a government that commanded a majority in the house. It is possible (although highly unlikely) that during this time there could be a Johnson-Corbyn pact to address the issues, although that would be only second to the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact in how unlikely it was.

If Johnson was unable to command a majority by 19 September, the general election process would be set in motion, with Johnson asking the Queen to dissolve Parliament. The date of the election would then be a minimum of seventeen days later, although by Parliamentary custom this would be deferred to the following Thursday, 10 October. So we could have more clarity by Friday 11 October, twenty days before B-Day.

I wonder if the no-confidence vote passes whether they can collectively agree to skip the fourteen days, since there's no real prospect of any alternative government formed. I would think both sides would want the election to happen as soon as possible once they accept there is going to be one.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Erik of Hazelfield said:

Is there any kind of (remotely plausible) GE result that could bring Brexit to a close? 

I guess a Labour-Liberal coalition that agreed on a second referendum and then won it for remain might be the best shot. Sort of the scenario I was thinking of above but the SNP were too much of a complicating factor for me. Corbyn could ditch his pro-Brexit stuff on the grounds it was the price of coalition to keep the Tories out. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, williamjm said:

I wonder if the no-confidence vote passes whether they can collectively agree to skip the fourteen days, since there's no real prospect of any alternative government formed. I would think both sides would want the election to happen as soon as possible once they accept there is going to be one.

Yes, that's possible, but I think Johnson will want to drag it out as much as he can.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

For future situations Article 50 should be re-written to state that if there is no affirmative vote on the manner of a country leaving the EU at the time of the deadline, then Article 50 is automatically withdrawn and the country stays in the EU. There could be one extension at the consent of all parties, but that's it. A country can re-invoke Art. 50 the day after the deadline to re-start the 2-year clock, and it can do this only once before needing to go back to the people (in a GE where all parties' leave policies are clearly stated, or a referendum) to re-establish a popular mandate to leave.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 As an outsider (Australian) I've been following the coverage quite closely.

I also wonder whether May's deal will come up again at the eleventh hour. Boris keeps on his crazy preparations for No Deal. Parliament gets spooked and makes it known that they overwhelmingly do not want No Deal. Boris holds his nose and loudly protests that he hates May's deal but that the evil Commons is making him do it. May's deal passes by the skin of its teeth and Boris can proudly say he has achieved Brexit, he would have gotten a much better deal but the terrible Commons lost their nerve and forced the bad May deal on him.

Or there's an election and British politics explodes. In a GE you'd think Boris scoops up all the Brexit votes, while the Remain voters are split - hardcore Remainers vote Lib Dem but vague Remainers vote Labour. Probably not that much difference to the eventual Brexit outcome too except that the Johnson government might have a better majority.

EDIT: I also happen to think that if No Deal happens on October 31, it will only be a matter of days or weeks before May's agreement is voted through post-Brexit and the EU would probably accept it (or accept it after driving a few more hard bargains).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 hours ago, Chaircat Meow said:

Supposing we have a hung Parliament but it has a remainer + Labour majority you have the very tricky question of how Labour, the Liberals and the SNP work together. Labour may not want to revoke article.50 or totally give up on Brexit. The other two will. The Liberals don't really want to work with either Corbyn or the SNP (a different labour leader might be a different proposition). No one wants to give the SNP a new Scottish referendum, likely one of their demands for a coalition, partly as this is a somewhat self-defeating strategy. If they win the referendum you lose your coalition, your majority and your country, and if the SNP lose it they flounce off in a huff and you lose your coalition and your majority.

To go back on that. I think the SNP would be ill-advised to insist on a second referendum as a price to stop Brexit. Ofc they might/will try to get another bite, but ultimately, I don't think it would wash their electorate back home too well, if the UK (with Scotland) crash out of the EU, because of them being too stubborn. Mormont might have a thing or two to say about it. And the SNP strikes me as too sensible to play games there. I don't see them joining a UK goverment either, but a confidence and supply deal, that seems possible.

Anyway, LibDems picked up that Tory seat in Wales. Plaid Cymru and the Greens did not field candidates of their own, so they didn't split the remain vote. I can see them going down that very road for a GE. Labour with another pitiful showing.

Like I said, the Tories with all their obsession with beating Corbyn simply look ridiculous. I have to think of an old Simpsons episode, where one guest character lists his accomplishments, among them: Just last month I knocked out Muhammad Ali. What I mean is, it's not aiming particularly high to beat Corbyn's Labour party, as in Corbyn is simply not a good politician. I mean, I don't go around my aim is to beat Harrison Dillard in a 100m race next year, so I get to say I've beaten an Olympic Champion.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Like I said, the Tories with all their obsession with beating Corbyn simply look ridiculous.

I think Johnson is taking another idea from his US mentors. Set up a hate figure for your supporters, so that they will spend all their time enjoying obsessively attacking the evil enemy, while not noticing how much they are being screwed. Whether it will work in the UK is another matter.

 

Also did anyone spot this on the by-election from the BBC:

Quote

 

Prof Laura McAllister, from Cardiff University's Wales Governance Centre, said the result should not be read as a "resounding victory" for Remain.

She pointed out that the three Brexit-supporting parties had 2-3,000 votes more than the Remain alliance.

 

Interesting implicit assumption that Labour are still a Brexit party ...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, A wilding said:

I think Johnson is taking another idea from his US mentors. Set up a hate figure for your supporters, so that they will spend all their time enjoying obsessively attacking the evil enemy, while not noticing how much they are being screwed. Whether it will work in the UK is another matter.

 

Also did anyone spot this on the by-election from the BBC:

Interesting implicit assumption that Labour are still a Brexit party ...

I don't think that was the implication. Didn't Tories, UKIP (the Tommy Robinson openly racists), and NUKIP (Frogface's new vehicle) gather more votes than LibDems and Labour?

The Labour performance was pitiful, and I think they only just managed to get their deposit back. However LibDems benefitted from the Greens and Plaid Cymru not fielding candidates, so that remainers really had one Party to go to. Yes, I said one party, as in, I still have no idea what Labour actually want, what they really, really want. Winning seats is never easy, while Jeezer is in charge.

6 minutes ago, A wilding said:

I think Johnson is taking another idea from his US mentors. Set up a hate figure for your supporters, so that they will spend all their time enjoying obsessively attacking the evil enemy, while not noticing how much they are being screwed. Whether it will work in the UK is another matter.

He doesn't really need to do much. They've been banging on about this dangerous socialist boogeyman for a good while. Check the first post of the last UK Politics thread and that survey of what is price worth paying for them to deliver Brexit.

Both major UK parties are pathetic in their own little way right now. That after more than three years of this Brexit circus with those Toff clowns in charge Labour is still unable to give the impression of a proper Goverment in waiting is a freaking indictment of their frontbench. Of course for the cultists/true believers it's all the media bias against Saint Jeremy, and not the posh spare time marxist simply being shit as party leader.

Longer read with links for those wanting to get up to speed on what's going on in Clown Central (aka UK goverment).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...