UK Politics: It's Life Pfeffel but not as we know it

[A wilding]

Oops, yes my math was out ...

[williamjm]

16 hours ago, Jeor said:

Or there's an election and British politics explodes. In a GE you'd think Boris scoops up all the Brexit votes, while the Remain voters are split - hardcore Remainers vote Lib Dem but vague Remainers vote Labour. Probably not that much difference to the eventual Brexit outcome too except that the Johnson government might have a better majority.

It could work out that way, although it's now two by-elections in a row where the Brexit parties have lost in seats that voted for leave due to splitting their vote, so it's not a given that Boris is going to be able to unite the leave voters.

On there other side you're right there is a risk that the remain parties trip over each other (if we classify Labour that way). Some sort of electoral pact could do a lot of damage to the Tories, but I'm not sure whether they'll be able to agree on one. Even without that we might see a lot of tactical voting from remainers depending on which party is the most competitive in a particular constituency.

EDIT: I also happen to think that if No Deal happens on October 31, it will only be a matter of days or weeks before May's agreement is voted through post-Brexit and the EU would probably accept it (or accept it after driving a few more hard bargains).

It does seem to be something the Brexit supporters have put no thought into, that a future government could well move closer to Europe again (although rejoining the EU would have to be a long term project if it ever happened).

7 hours ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

To go back on that. I think the SNP would be ill-advised to insist on a second referendum as a price to stop Brexit. Ofc they might/will try to get another bite, but ultimately, I don't think it would wash their electorate back home too well, if the UK (with Scotland) crash out of the EU, because of them being too stubborn. Mormont might have a thing or two to say about it. And the SNP strikes me as too sensible to play games there. I don't see them joining a UK goverment either, but a confidence and supply deal, that seems possible.

The remainder of the UK leaving the single market also makes Scottish independence much more complex because the Northern Irish border issue would then be replicated along the River Tweed.

[Werthead]

2 hours ago, williamjm said:

It could work out that way, although it's now two by-elections in a row where the Brexit parties have lost in seats that voted for leave due to splitting their vote, so it's not a given that Boris is going to be able to unite the leave voters.

On there other side you're right there is a risk that the remain parties trip over each other (if we classify Labour that way). Some sort of electoral pact could do a lot of damage to the Tories, but I'm not sure whether they'll be able to agree on one. Even without that we might see a lot of tactical voting from remainers depending on which party is the most competitive in a particular constituency.

Yup. Colchester will have that problem next time, as it's an old LibDem stronghold (it was LibDem from 1997 to 2010) but then switched to Tory in 2015 and 2017. But in 2017 Labour absolutely smashed the LibDems down way into third place. So at the next election, assuming Labour's Ref3/final deal ref message gets through, that will create an issue where lots of the Remain vote may go back to the LibDems, but other people will be voting Labour to continue the momentum built up in the last election. The likely result of that would be the Tories getting back in again, even if the combined LibDem/Labour vote outnumbered that of the Tory vote. Of course, there may be break from the Tories to the Brexit Party which could help even things out a bit.

[Jeor]

6 hours ago, williamjm said:

It does seem to be something the Brexit supporters have put no thought into, that a future government could well move closer to Europe again (although rejoining the EU would have to be a long term project if it ever happened).

Yes, I think a lot of the pro-Brexit people assume that once No Deal happens, the battle will be won and the job is done.

But if No Deal happens, I think they're going to be in for a rude shock. The chaos that will ensue in the days/weeks/months after No Deal is going to send a lot of MPs scrambling for solutions, and the most likely outcome is a strengthening of the pro-EU cause. I doubt they will be able to get the UK back into the EU, but at the very least I think they will try to bring up votes on May's withdrawal agreement, the Irish backstop and all sorts of things. Realistically I think the EU would be reasonably pragmatic and potentially strike a deal post-Brexit along the lines of May's agreement, though they might drive a slightly harder bargain once it sees the UK in desperate straits.

If Johnson has thought of this post-Brexit scenario (unlikely) where the pro-European MPs fight tooth and nail, that might make him more amenable to a general election - he will need a strong majority to see off those post-Brexit threats to his power.

 

[A Horse Named Stranger]

6 hours ago, williamjm said:

It does seem to be something the Brexit supporters have put no thought into, that a future government could well move closer to Europe again (although rejoining the EU would have to be a long term project if it ever happened). 

That depends on what happens next. The only somewhat plausible next step is the UK aligning themselves with the big trade block on the side of the Atlantic. The US. If that happens, then rejoining the EU is a long way off. Given how long trade talks take, this won't happen overnight. But then again, empty supermarket shelves an be a proper motivation to just sign up to anything on the dotted line.

[Jeor]

24 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

empty supermarket shelves an be a proper motivation to just sign up to anything on the dotted line.

This is the big unknown I reckon. Just how acute things will be and how much panic there is will affect any politicians' incentive for action. The Brexiteers will call for people to hold their nerve, but if the crisis turns out to be hitting everyday consumers at every turn then someone's going to sign something somewhere. And May's withdrawal agreement will be the closest thing to hand.

[The Anti-Targ]

13 hours ago, Maltaran said:

I assume she means Tories, Brexit and UKIP (who were last behind the Loonies)

Well the only parties where you can safely assume all voters are Brexiteers come what may are UKIP and Brexit. With Tories a lot will be Brexiteers, but some will be remainers who are simply loyal to their party and will never vote a different way, and some Tory Brexiteers would not support a no deal Brexit and will at least be sane enough to preferring remain to no-deal.

[HexMachina]

7 hours ago, Jeor said:

Yes, I think a lot of the pro-Brexit people assume that once No Deal happens, the battle will be won and the job is done.

But if No Deal happens, I think they're going to be in for a rude shock. The chaos that will ensue in the days/weeks/months after No Deal is going to send a lot of MPs scrambling for solutions, and the most likely outcome is a strengthening of the pro-EU cause. I doubt they will be able to get the UK back into the EU, but at the very least I think they will try to bring up votes on May's withdrawal agreement, the Irish backstop and all sorts of things. Realistically I think the EU would be reasonably pragmatic and potentially strike a deal post-Brexit along the lines of May's agreement, though they might drive a slightly harder bargain once it sees the UK in desperate straits.

If Johnson has thought of this post-Brexit scenario (unlikely) where the pro-European MPs fight tooth and nail, that might make him more amenable to a general election - he will need a strong majority to see off those post-Brexit threats to his power.

 

I would say a lot of pro-Brexit people thought the job was done once they scraped the referendum, as seen by the total shambles and lack of planning which resulted in the last few years of chaos

2 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Well the only parties where you can safely assume all voters are Brexiteers come what may are UKIP and Brexit. With Tories a lot will be Brexiteers, but some will be remainers who are simply loyal to their party and will never vote a different way, and some Tory Brexiteers would not support a no deal Brexit and will at least be sane enough to preferring remain to no-deal.

I think some, if not most, of the Conservatives on this board are pro-Remain actually?

[ljkeane]

9 hours ago, Jeor said:

I doubt they will be able to get the UK back into the EU, but at the very least I think they will try to bring up votes on May's withdrawal agreement, the Irish backstop and all sorts of things.

I very much doubt the UK would be signing up to the Irish backstop in particular if we leave without one. Brexiteers aren't wrong that it's a pretty terrible deal for the UK. It basically locks the UK into a customs union with the EU, giving the EU the advantage of including the UK market, but they really don't have to concern themselves with how trade deals affect the UK because we can't really threaten to leave. It's just the obvious solution is to not leave the EU.

[Maltaran]

7 minutes ago, ljkeane said:

I very much doubt the UK would be signing up to the Irish backstop in particular if we leave without one. Brexiteers aren't wrong that it's a pretty terrible deal for the UK. It basically locks the UK into a customs union with the EU, giving the EU the advantage of including the UK market, but they really don't have to concern themselves with how trade deals affect the UK because we can't really threaten to leave. It's just the obvious solution is to not leave the EU.

They might be persuaded to say fuck the DUP and go for the NI-only backstop which was the original proposal 

[Heartofice]

3 hours ago, Maltaran said:

They might be persuaded to say fuck the DUP and go for the NI-only backstop which was the original proposal 

Also unlikely and a bad deal 

[Jeor]

Well, May's withdrawal agreement or the backstop only might be tough sells but in a No Deal remorse market some politicians are likely to look to do something. But even if it's not those, certainly there will be a lot of pressure to sign some pretty bad deals in the early days of a No Deal Brexit panic. The UK can expect to get rinsed by other nations at least in the early going if there's desperation to get things done.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

5 hours ago, ljkeane said:

I very much doubt the UK would be signing up to the Irish backstop in particular if we leave without one. Brexiteers aren't wrong that it's a pretty terrible deal for the UK. It basically locks the UK into a customs union with the EU, giving the EU the advantage of including the UK market, but they really don't have to concern themselves with how trade deals affect the UK because we can't really threaten to leave. It's just the obvious solution is to not leave the EU.

The problem lies somewhere else however.

For the Brexiters (I mean the true believers), those issues are not connected to Brexit itself (which they are by the way). That delusion is not restricted to the right of the political spectrum btw. So Corbyn's been very happy to talk about his Labour Brexit fantasies.

So the WA (or May's deal) is the fault of the ineptness of May, or her lack of believe (not Brexit being bad idea giving her a very poor hand to play to begin with, and forcing her to negotiate from her position of weakness against a very capable negotiation team); and conveniently ignoring the glorious reign of David Davis.

If the UK crashes out, it won't be their fault, it will be the EU's for not bending over backwards to appease the deranged fantasies of a spoilt toddler. (check Pfeffel's latest speeches).

Brexit could've been oh so wonderful if it were done right.

[Heartofice]

It is also true that May put herself into a negotiating handcuff via a terrible general election campaign which left her with a negligible majority and having to rely on the votes of a tiny party. 

Its not delusional to think that the EU must have laughed their arse off at Mays attempts at negotiation and her obvious weakness, even over riding her own negotiating team.

It doesn’t mean that there was ever going to be much more on the table but May did an awful job all round.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

Not really.

The UK's domestic election had very little impact on the EU's negotiation. That's as big a myth, as PM Johnson would've gotten a better deal. All it did in practical terms was, it ended the Irish only backstop (thanks to the DUP) as a possible outcome. Would her deal have passed with a Tory majority, and effectively cutting NI loose? I doubt it. As we learnt, only a hard no-deal Brexit, is a true Brexit for the hardcore numpties of the ERG.

Overriding her own negotiation team, that was one of the few responsible acts in her Premiership. Davis and later on Demonic Raab were heading for a no-deal back then. I know there's this scapegoat for the hard right named Robinson, which is another part of that stab in the back myth.

You can balme her for other things. Her inability to seek a consensus across the house from the very beginning of this process. Her feeding into the fantasies of the right of her party (like with her Lancaster House speech) and thus validating their delusions, instead of putting them down early on. Her resurrection of the political career of Pfeffel. Her silly red lines, too. If you want to view seperate from the ERG fantasies.

I am not going into her domestic policy failures, and whether she or David Cameron will be go down as the worst PM in British history - thus far, as we have not seen the full glory of Pfeffel.

[williamjm]

4 hours ago, Triskele said:

Sorry, wrong United something thread! 

Sadly, it seems to be increasingly easy to confuse United Kingdom politics and United States politics.

[Mindwalker]

15 hours ago, williamjm said:

Sadly, it seems to be increasingly easy to confuse United Kingdom politics and United States politics.

But the UK does it with a much nicer accent!

I was wondering, have people noticed an upswing of nationalism in everyday circumstances? Or, say, in the media (when Brexit etc. is not the topic of discussion)?

[Which Tyler]

3 hours ago, Mindwalker said:

But the UK does it with a much nicer accent!

I was wondering, have people noticed an upswing of nationalism in everyday circumstances? Or, say, in the media (when Brexit etc. is not the topic of discussion)?

Rhat depends.

If you mean nationalism as in "yay Britain" then no, not at all; the opposite in fact.

If you mean nationalism as a stand in for racism, then absolutely yes. I've gone form nevernhaving directly witnessed overt, hostile nationalism/racism to doing so or the immediate aftermath once or twice a month.

[Ordos]

You know, if Brexit does happen on October 31st, out of morbid curiosity I wish I could be there in the streets of London when the clock strikes midnight. There will be images on TV screens of the stock market crashing, New Year's eve style countdown parties in bars but hopefully not people jumping out of windows of multi-story buildings.

[Pebble thats Stubby]

1 hour ago, Ordos said:

You know, if Brexit does happen on October 31st, out of morbid curiosity I wish I could be there in the streets of London when the clock strikes midnight. There will be images on TV screens of the stock market crashing, New Year's eve style countdown parties in bars but hopefully not people jumping out of windows of multi-story buildings.

Well the stock market won't crash at the stroke of midnight, since it would have allready closed for the day.  There may well be extra fireworks.  Since it is firework month yes it's supposed to be on the 5th, maybe the weekend before and after, but it's been a long while since we didn't seem to set them off nightly for a whole month before and after.  I do predict a higher amount of Boris "guys" this year.

 

For the record I was invited to a brexit firework party that was supposed to happen in March.