UK Politics: It's Life Pfeffel but not as we know it

[Maithanet]

20 minutes ago, Derfel Cadarn said:

The US congress will block a UK/Us trade deal if Brexit endangers Good friday agreement

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-49348062

I think Pelosi is just trying to discourage a no-deal Brexit, to attempt to counterbalance Trump and Bolton's nonsensical enthusiasm for it.  Because otherwise her statement doesn't make a lot of sense.  If No Deal Brexit happens, the GFA will be legally violated and in danger of completely falling apart.  This will be true whether Congress passes a trade agreement or not.  So holding up a trade deal at that point would be meaningless. 

[dornishpen]

9 hours ago, Heartofice said:

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/eu-exit-avoiding-a-hard-border-in-northern-ireland-in-a-no-deal-scenario?utm_source=75ce3cb7-9434-4ce8-b32a-eb1b874adb30&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=govuk-notifications&utm_content=immediate&utm_source=POLITICO.EU&utm_campaign=5bb24437f7-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2019_03_13_07_01&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_10959edeb5-5bb24437f7-190352297

 

That doesn't actually answer my question, seems a bit delusional and hasn't been updated since April, so I don't think you can assume this is the position of your current government.

[Chaircat Meow]

Pleased Philip Hammond is back and Bercow is piping up again. Another couple of days of Corbyn, McDonnell, Long-Bailey and Lucas falling over themselves in a circus of stupidity was too much to take. Johnson sounds rattled too, throwing around terms like collaborators ...

[polishgenius]

12 hours ago, Heartofice said:

Btw did you not notice the EUs massive over expansion into Eastern Europe?

Yeah, Western Europe is fine but we can't have those dirty Eastern European bastards joining in.

[DanteGabriel]

39 minutes ago, polishgenius said:

Yeah, Western Europe is fine but we can't have those dirty Eastern European bastards joining in.

Not the first time HoI has complained about too many Eastern Europeans, either.

[Maltaran]

Rumours on Twitter about a couple of defections to the Lib Dems - Sarah Wollaston (one of the ex-Tories who went to Change UK), and also Philip Lee, who is currently still a Tory and so, if true, would remove Johnson’s majority.

[argonak]

I'm a curious american.  Have they said what a no-deal would do for all the UK ex-pats working and living in the rest of the EU?  

[polishgenius]

3 minutes ago, argonak said:

I'm a curious american.  Have they said what a no-deal would do for all the UK ex-pats working and living in the rest of the EU?  

 

Most places will have systems in place to get ourselves permanent residency/work permits. I had a bit of stress because I lost my British passport a month before the appointment to get said passport stamped, but thankfully it got sorted suuuuuuuuuper quickly so I'm safe.


(I am also failing miserably at getting my Polishness problems sorted, but that's a whole other thing)

[SeanF]

6 hours ago, Werthead said:

The UK is a country of 65 million people dealing with a political body with a population of 448 million whose economy is eight times our size (both without us). We are the considerably junior partner in the negotiations with the EU, where the EU enjoys superiority on every front.

This is also true of the United States and China and, to a lesser degree, Japan, Germany and France as individual countries. The UK also has a problem in that the primary instigator of our economy is services, which is partially dependent on EU access and will inevitably contract after Brexit, giving us even less clout in international negotiations.

Britain is incapable of standing tall and independent as it has nothing to stand tall and independent about versus the EU,  US and China. We can throw our weight around and make good trade deals with, say, Kenya and Guatemala, but against the considerably larger economies we have very little leverage at all. If we wanted to completely rework our economy to make us more competitive that's great, but after many decades of preparing for Brexit, no Brexiter has actually proposed such an economic plan, because they seem to expect that business as usual will continue even after a no deal Brexit because reasons, even when Brexit fundamentally sabotages the foundations of our current economic makeup.

Brexit will reduce our political and economic power and clout in the world, permanently. There is no way it will leave us stronger and richer than remaining in the EU at this time. Brexiters saying it will are, simply put, lying.

I don't think there's any optimum population size that maximises one's clout.  Places like Australia, Canada, Singapore, New Zealand, seem to get by just fine, without being part of a body like the EU.  I accept that it's possible to be so tiny that one really can't go it alone, but that's not the case with the UK.

It's worth noting the UK tends to run a trade surplus with non-EU nations, (and a massive trade deficit with the EU) which implies being part of the Single Market may be of considerably greater benefit to our trading partners, than it is to us.

[A wilding]

6 minutes ago, argonak said:

I'm a curious american.  Have they said what a no-deal would do for all the UK ex-pats working and living in the rest of the EU?  

A hard no deal could be pretty bad for them. Depending on country and circumstances, they could lose all free access to state services. Most obviously that would mean having to pay for all medical care, which could be serious for those who have retired.

Of course most of the smarter ex-pats who could have long since obtained dual nationality. A substantial number have obtained an Irish passport (which only requires having has one Irish grandparent). Indeed a good many British people in the UK have variously obtained dual nationality as a precaution against the worst.

But all this leaves a great many ex-pats who would be shafted.

[Liffguard]

1 hour ago, SeanF said:

I don't think there's any optimum population size that maximises one's clout.  Places like Australia, Canada, Singapore, New Zealand, seem to get by just fine, without being part of a body like the EU.  I accept that it's possible to be so tiny that one really can't go it alone, but that's not the case with the UK.

It's worth noting the UK tends to run a trade surplus with non-EU nations, (and a massive trade deficit with the EU) which implies being part of the Single Market may be of considerably greater benefit to our trading partners, than it is to us.

Sure, but the problem isn't necessarily being an independent, mid-sized, largely insular country. The problem lies in the transition. Our economic infrastructure and supply lines are predicated around single market membership, and without some very savvy stewardship the reorganisation of them is likely to be disruptive. I think the fears of totally bare supermarket shelves and overnight meltdown are largely overblown, but I can see a moderate-to-large economic shock followed by a slow overall decline.

 

[Werthead]

1 hour ago, argonak said:

I'm a curious american.  Have they said what a no-deal would do for all the UK ex-pats working and living in the rest of the EU?  

It would be hugely problematic. A good example is Spain, which does not allow dual national citizens, so British expats living in Spain wanting to secure their futures would have to renounce their British citizenship to take up Spanish citizenship. However, this would involve the expats also giving up their British state pensions, which quite a few are living off, so that's a non-starter either.

Because of the sheer size of the British expat population and their paying into the Spanish economy, the Spanish government has indicated they will address this but I don't believe firm plans have been laid out yet (or they hadn't last week when my mother who lives in Spain was enquiring with the authorities about this).

Other countries which do allow dual nationalities should be less impacted.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

3 hours ago, polishgenius said:

Yeah, Western Europe is fine but we can't have those dirty Eastern European bastards joining in.

Not exactly the same, but one big thing that jumped out at me during the WC was how the victorious French side was a team mostly made of immigrants and the children of immigrants. In never ceases to amazing me how people hate one another simply because they were born on a different piece of rock than them. 

[The Anti-Targ]

10 hours ago, Gaston de Foix said:

Two significant pieces of news: 

1. 21 Tory MPs led by Hammond have put their names on a letter urging the Prime Minister to agree a deal as he repeatedly promised to attempt to do: link. 

2.  Johnson has in turn accused Tory MPs and EU of "collaboration" and suggested the failure of the EU to offer amendments to the withdrawal agreement is because the EU "think Brexit can be blocked in Parliament": link

Note the outrageous lie ("collaboration") followed by the equally dishonest explanation for the EU's alleged intransigence. 

In office, Johnson continues as a fully signed up adherent to the Trumpian war on truth.   

Since these allegations will not achieve anything with the EU or with the MPs in question it is worth asking oneself why he is making them.  The answer is that his strategy depends on polarization (reduce the debate to Brexiteers v. Remainers) and the embrace of propaganda over truth (the EU are deliberately screwing the UK because they want to stop us for leaving/punish us for wanting us to leave).  

Even if Parliament blocks no-deal, I am pessimistic this polarization and propaganda will not be rewarded in the election that will follow shortly thereafter. 

 

1. Is only significant if those 21 Tory MPs are willing to do something about stopping a no-deal Brexit other than asking BoJo nicely to do something. Are they willing to risk their political careers? That's more than enough votes for a VONC to succeed. And would they be willing to let JC be PM of a GONU, even if it was on the condition he implement no policy other than that required to prevent a no-deal, and he resigns as PM on 1 Nov?

When you stack up the various ways to avoid no-deal Brexit this seems like about the only potentially achievable option.

I was going to say 2 isn't really significant, because it's predictable BoJo. But then accusing your own party members of collaborating with the EU (against the UKs "best" interests according to BoJo) is bordering on an accusation of treasonous conspiracy. That is significant.

[Varysblackfyre321]

6 hours ago, DanteGabriel said:

Not the first time HoI has complained about too many Eastern Europeans, either.

Yeah he has argued that they’re ruining British culture. In what way? Who knows. Who cares. Maybe they’re going to make drinking tea or playing rugby not as popular. Actual specifics don’t really seem to matter. 

11 hours ago, Werthead said:

Brexit will reduce our political and economic power and clout in the world, permanently. There is no way it will leave us stronger and richer than remaining in the EU at this time. Brexiters saying it will are, simply put, lying.

But at least British culture is secured from those dirty East Europeans-filthy white, secular, Christian bastards-they have nothing in common with native Britains.

I do wonder if remainders would’ve found more success with adverting Brexit if they simply focused on the message of “this will lead to more brown foreigners in this country” rather than the message of “this will likely/definitively destroy the country’s economy and political standing”. 

[SeanF]

2 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

1. Is only significant if those 21 Tory MPs are willing to do something about stopping a no-deal Brexit other than asking BoJo nicely to do something. Are they willing to risk their political careers? That's more than enough votes for a VONC to succeed. And would they be willing to let JC be PM of a GONU, even if it was on the condition he implement no policy other than that required to prevent a no-deal, and he resigns as PM on 1 Nov?

When you stack up the various ways to avoid no-deal Brexit this seems like about the only potentially achievable option.

I was going to say 2 isn't really significant, because it's predictable BoJo. But then accusing your own party members of collaborating with the EU (against the UKs "best" interests according to BoJo) is bordering on an accusation of treasonous conspiracy. That is significant.

They have to be willing to put Jeremy Corbyn into office, and trust that he'll keep his promises to them.  That's a lot to ask of any Conservative MP.

 

4 hours ago, Liffguard said:

Sure, but the problem isn't necessarily being an independent, mid-sized, largely insular country. The problem lies in the transition. Our economic infrastructure and supply lines are predicated around single market membership, and without some very savvy stewardship the reorganisation of them is likely to be disruptive. I think the fears of totally bare supermarket shelves and overnight meltdown are largely overblown, but I can see a moderate-to-large economic shock followed by a slow overall decline.

 

The bigger problem for me is that if a deal is to stick, you need to leave something on the table for the other side.  Whether we go for No Deal or revoking A.50, half the electorate are going to be seriously pissed off.

[Heartofice]

13 hours ago, polishgenius said:

Yeah, Western Europe is fine but we can't have those dirty Eastern European bastards joining in.

The EU went from a small collection of similarly sized economic powers to adding  13 new countries in a decade, with little thought on how to integrate them. It didn’t seem to matter that those counties were wildly out of sync economically, politically, culturally with the rest. They just had to be added because the more the merrier. Brexit almost certainly wouldn’t have happened and the general discontent around Europe might not be happening had there not been such a rush to expand.

6 hours ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

Yawn.

Hi , found your way into the UK thread again, wanting to tell British people what their culture is like? There is a queue.

[Heartofice]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/14/labour-bloc-plans-radical-move-to-push-through-brexit-deal

 A group of 30 MPs are hoping to push through the WA and get more people to sign up to it. Will it work? Is the deal still dead. We will have to see, there might not be the numbers for it even now if it ever came back 

[The Anti-Targ]

11 hours ago, SeanF said:

They have to be willing to put Jeremy Corbyn into office, and trust that he'll keep his promises to them.  That's a lot to ask of any Conservative MP.

If he doesn't then they just hold another VONC and Corbyn's time as PM is over very quickly. The remain / soft Brexit Cons have the balance of power.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

I can see why Labour seized the initiative there and positioned Corbyn as the logical caretaker PM. It makes perfect sense from a party political perspective.

However, rewarding him with the position of PM after three years of his and Labour's still logically inconsistent Brexit policy with all his hand-wringing and will of the people BS (oh and the three line whip), that just goes against any innate feeling of fairness or justice. I am pretty sure quite a few remain MPs share that sentiment.

The SNP and Caroline Lucas have said, they'd be willing to accept Corbyn, LibDems have thus far ruled that out, and the rebel Tory MPs no idea, what they will do.

I'd guess, there'd be enough Labour MPs (not named Long-Bailey) willing to vote for somebody not named Corbyn.