UK Politics: It's Life Pfeffel but not as we know it

[ants]

3 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

There are really only 2 ways of choosing a caretaker PM in a new coalition (it won't be a GONU if the Tories as a whole don't join, which they won't): leader of the party making up the largest % of the coalition; popular vote among all MPs making up the coalition.

One assumes only the rebel conservative MPs (who will probably be booted from the party as soon as they sign on to a new coalition) will join and not the whole conservative party, so Labour will be the biggest party in the coalition. In [nearly?] every coalition arrangement ever the leader of the largest party in the coalition becomes PM. To do otherwise is riding roughshod over political convention for the sake of appeasement. But if the agreement was to elect from among all the MPs, each party would nominate a candidate, and one assumes Corbyn would be the Labour nominee as would the leader of all the other parties, and someone nominated from the rebel Tories. If Corbyn didn;t win that vote there would be bloody hell to pay in the Labour party, because about ~75 Labour MPs would have to vote for someone else and all the minor members of the coalition would have to vote for that same person.

There is no good way for someone other than Corbyn to be caretaker PM that doesn't involve some kind of coup or destructive betrayal, unless Corbyn himself takes himself out of the running but if he does that he might as well resign as leader of Labour and never have a shot at being PM again. The deputy PM however should be one of the rebel Cons, if there really is 20 of them, even though SNP is likely to be the 2nd largest party in the coalition, it probably wouldn't be good for a party with separatist views to have the #2 position in the govt.

If its a caretaker government, and it won't exist without those Torry MPs, then there is no reason it should follow traditional coalition systems.  If its meant to stop the no-deal, then call the snap election, its a bit of a unique beast.  If Corbyn really wants an election without Bojo having implemented no-deal (which he should, because then Brexit could split the brexit vote), then agreeing to a neutral party being care-taker would make sense and actually show some maturity that would be good for the election.

Which is why (and the fact he'd like no-deal) that Corbyn won't do it. 

[The Anti-Targ]

The fact is the Labour leader is the natural and automatic choice for PM in any conventional or unconventional coalition situation that doesn't include the Tory party (as a whole). The demand for anyone other than the Labour leader to be PM is personal politics. It's only Corbyn they have a beef over and it's petty and pathetic. Do they think Corbyn is going to destroy the country in the months between a VONC and a GE? It's on everyone to rise above it and just follow standard practice rather than insist on non-traditional approaches to determining PM.

If people genuinely think Corbyn wants a no-deal then they should call his bluff and agree to what he's proposed. He's proposed a clear path to preventing no-deal Brexit, and it's really only on the margins that people have gripes about it. SNP wants an independence ref, LDP wants a referendum before a GE rather than after. That's just rats and mice stuff. If you're putting Corbyn's premiership, sequencing and regional self interest issues ahead of preventing no-deal then I question everyone's commitment to preventing no-deal. You can just as easily claim the SNP wants no deal because it's the best and last chance for Scotland to gain independence for the foreseeable future, so they are putting roadblocks up to prevent a coalition all while saying they want to prevent a no-deal. I'm not saying that's what I believe to be SNPs motivation, but you can argue all sorts of nefarious motives by a whole bunch of people. Corbyn is a Brexiteer, but I don't get the sense he wants a no-deal, he might be more willing to live with a no-deal outcome more than most in Labour, but that's not the same as wanting no-deal.

People don't want Corbyn to be anointed as the saviour of the realm. Get over it, don't worry about who's gonna get the credit, just get on with saving the realm.

[SeanF]

13 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

If he doesn't then they just hold another VONC and Corbyn's time as PM is over very quickly. The remain / soft Brexit Cons have the balance of power.

The Conservative Party may not play ball with the rebels.  They might see a weak/fractious Corbyn minority government as being to their advantage.

They'd pull the plug on it only when they had a big polling lead.

[Ser Reptitious]

On 8/15/2019 at 9:45 AM, Heartofice said:

Hi , found your way into the UK thread again, wanting to tell British people what their culture is like? There is a queue.

I, for one, am not particularly interested in getting into what British culture is or isn't, but you have never yet answered how exactly Eastern Europeans pose a threat to said culture. Could you finally address that?

[ants]

5 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

The fact is the Labour leader is the natural and automatic choice for PM in any conventional or unconventional coalition situation that doesn't include the Tory party (as a whole). The demand for anyone other than the Labour leader to be PM is personal politics. It's only Corbyn they have a beef over and it's petty and pathetic. Do they think Corbyn is going to destroy the country in the months between a VONC and a GE? It's on everyone to rise above it and just follow standard practice rather than insist on non-traditional approaches to determining PM.

....

Sorry, but I disagree. Depending on what constituencies those rebel Tories are from, they might get re-elected even after scuttling Brexit.  Plenty of traditional Tory seats are remain. 

But not if they put Corbyn in power, even just for a few months. 

So to get them over the line, given they’re NECESSARY, Corbyn should but out. 

[Safiya]

5 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

The fact is the Labour leader is the natural and automatic choice for PM in any conventional or unconventional coalition situation that doesn't include the Tory party (as a whole). The demand for anyone other than the Labour leader to be PM is personal politics. It's only Corbyn they have a beef over and it's petty and pathetic. Do they think Corbyn is going to destroy the country in the months between a VONC and a GE? It's on everyone to rise above it and just follow standard practice rather than insist on non-traditional approaches to determining PM.

100% agree, and they say Corbyn will wreck the country? haha.  Look at what the people who hate Corbyn have done to our country, to family values and individual respect.  Tory austerity has been linked to 120,000 deaths.  A scientific paper identified that mortality rates in the UK had declined steadily from 2001 to 2010, but this reversed sharply with the death rate growing again after austerity came in.  Based on those trends it is predicted would account for 152,141 deaths - 100 a day - findings which one of the authors called “economic murder”.

https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/7/11/e017722

[Which Tyler]

50 minutes ago, Safiya said:

100% agree, and they say Corbyn will wreck the country? haha.  Look at what the people who hate Corbyn have done to our country, to family values and individual respect.  Tory austerity has been linked to 120,000 deaths.  A scientific paper identified that mortality rates in the UK had declined steadily from 2001 to 2010, but this reversed sharply with the death rate growing again after austerity came in.  Based on those trends it is predicted would account for 152,141 deaths - 100 a day - findings which one of the authors called “economic murder”.

https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/7/11/e017722

It's be interesting to seenwhat the figures show post 2014 and specifically post the 2015 GE

[Which Tyler]

The police threads are always about guns, and this one is specifically British...

 

RIP PC Harper: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-49368649

[BigFatCoward]

51 minutes ago, Which Tyler said:

The police threads are always about guns, and this one is specifically British...

 

RIP PC Harper: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-49368649

Wonder how far away his nearest back up was, and whether this can be linked to his death.  Thankfully its still incredibly rare for this to happen in the UK, even having worked in some of the shittest and most volatile parts of London I don't know anyone who has even been 'seriously' assaulted.

[Which Tyler]

Really wish the BBC would cease their fascination with the blood smears on the ground!

Have some respect.

[The Anti-Targ]

3 hours ago, ants said:

Sorry, but I disagree. Depending on what constituencies those rebel Tories are from, they might get re-elected even after scuttling Brexit.  Plenty of traditional Tory seats are remain. 

But not if they put Corbyn in power, even just for a few months. 

So to get them over the line, given they’re NECESSARY, Corbyn should but out. 

The only way the Tory rebels are getting back into Parliament is if the party doesn't boot them out on their arse and they get re-selected as Tory candidates for their electorate. And there is no way the Tory party is going to let MPs stay in the party who were entirely responsible for bringing down the Tory govt. They could potentially try to get a 2nd life as Lib Dem candidates in those electorates, and if they do become Lib Dems then they are not going to be depending on idiot conservatives who will never forgive them for letting Corbyn be PM for a day, they will be relying on moderate conservatives who will recognise that they had to hold their nose and let Corbyn be PM for a day to kill off an even worse fate.

"Corbyn, mate! You can't be PM and be in charge of making just 2 decisions in your very brief first term in office (ask the EU for an Art 50 extension, and call a GE) because our voters are so fricken pathetic that they will think you being in charge of these two actions is somehow committing high treason against everything that is good and British. So you will ruin our political careers if you insist on what would otherwise be a no-brainer decision for who would be in charge in a coalition. So you see, YOU'RE the one who's being unreasonable here."

UK politicians bloody deserve to have no-deal rammed down their throats. But most of the British people don't, so I still hope there's a way to avoid it for their sake. As for the current crop of MPs just about the whole lot of them should be consigned to political oblivion.

[Gaston de Foix]

1 hour ago, The Anti-Targ said:

The only way the Tory rebels are getting back into Parliament is if the party doesn't boot them out on their arse and they get re-selected as Tory candidates for their electorate. And there is no way the Tory party is going to let MPs stay in the party who were entirely responsible for bringing down the Tory govt. They could potentially try to get a 2nd life as Lib Dem candidates in those electorates, and if they do become Lib Dems then they are not going to be depending on idiot conservatives who will never forgive them for letting Corbyn be PM for a day, they will be relying on moderate conservatives who will recognise that they had to hold their nose and let Corbyn be PM for a day to kill off an even worse fate.

This is an over-generalization.  Some Tory MPs (the Dominic Grieve's etc). are political toast no question.  Others like Clarke have already said they are stepping down.  But there remain a number of MPs who are Remain MPs in Remain constituencies whose associations will be supportive of their MPs, or not make this the decisive factor. Others voted for May's deal and can say in good conscience they tried to deliver Brexit even if they oppose No-Deal. 

I think you underestimate the general dislike and distrust of Corbyn amongst every shade of conservative. It's no good saying that it's obvious that they should choose country over party. It's not obvious to them that's the choice before them, and even if they sacrifice their political career for the possibility (not the certainty mind you) of blocking No-Deal Brexit, it will do anything to resolve the current political crisis. 

There is one point that I had previously neglected and cuts in the pro-Corbyn favor: pro-Brexit MPs in the Labour Party who would vote for no-confidence but would not vote to block No-Deal Brexit.  The important question is which potential coalition is bigger and has a better chance of success: the coalition to make Corbyn PM (which to be fair has adherents outside the Labour Party), or the coalition for VONC for Ken Clarke or Harriet Harman or legislative blocking of Brexit. 

[Safiya]

27 minutes ago, Gaston de Foix said:

I think you underestimate the general dislike and distrust of Corbyn amongst every shade of conservative. It's no good saying that it's obvious that they should choose country over party. It's not obvious to them that's the choice before them, and even if they sacrifice their political career for the possibility (not the certainty mind you) of blocking No-Deal Brexit, it will do anything to resolve the current political crisis.

I think you underestimate the complete distrust of the US by many Tories, Jeremy Clarkson is a classic Tory, his position is based on the refusal by the US to support the UK over the Falkland Islands, there are many Tory politicians who have the same position as him.

[Zorral]

How 'world leaders' destroyed the global economy:

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/15/opinion/recession-stock-market.html?

Quote

 

Why are so many key global leaders pursuing so many stupid economic policies?

As recently as January 2018, the International Monetary Fund issued one of its most upbeat economic forecasts in recent years, extolling “broad based” growth, with “notable upside surprises.”

By last month, the fund had sliced its forecast for expansion this year to 3.2 percent — a significant falloff from the 3.9 percent projection reiterated just six months earlier — and had pronounced the economic picture “sluggish.” American investors are more concerned; the bond market is sounding its loudest recessionary alarm since April 2007.

The deterioration in the economic picture is not the consequence of irresponsible behavior by banks or a natural disaster or an unanticipated economic shock; it’s completely self-inflicted by major world leaders who have delivered almost universally poor economic stewardship.

 .... President Trump sits firmly atop the list of bad policies. But Brexit has tipped Britain into economic contraction. With European governments unwilling to pursue structural reforms, the continent is barely growing. President Xi Jinping of China has focused on standing up to Mr. Trump and solidifying his own power. After a promising start reforming the economy, India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi, has turned instead to oppressing his country’s Muslim minority....

 

 

[A wilding]

On the caretaker PM plan:

Personally I think Corbyn has once again displayed his lack of political nous. I am reminded of when May decided to be flexible about Brexit, and so called a meeting with other party leaders to lecture them about how they had to be flexible by doing exactly what she told them. Corbyn almost managed to make it a story about himself instead, by flouncing out of the meeting on a technicality before it started.

The centre grouping of MPs sees the possibility of a no deal Brexit as an existential crisis, a reason to take extraordinary and unprecedented actions such as electing a caretaker PM whose only actions will be to immediately ask the EU for another extension and then call an election.

For Corbyn it is all about getting the Tories out of power and getting himself into No 10. He gives the impression of being quite relaxed about a no deal Brexit, especially if he can escape blame for it. He thinks he is just playing the normal game of two party politics, hence his standing on his rights as leader of the Opposition.

That being so, it is obviously that much harder for left wing Tories to support a VoNC. Indeed, given Corbyn's de-emphasis of Brexit, and his long standing dissembling of his pro-Brexit views, why should they even trust him not to decide on some last minute change of direction once he is installed? Especially as he seems not to care too much if their caretaker PM plan fails, and may even have made his offer just to scupper it?

 

[BigFatCoward]

As a life long labour supporter I'd take Clarke over JC in a second. 

[Safiya]

I'd take Clarke but not over Corbyn, Corbyn is the only one who could start reversing the vileness that is the UK at the present moment.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

12 minutes ago, Safiya said:

I'd take Clarke but not over Corbyn, Corbyn is the only one who could start reversing the vileness that is the UK at the present moment.

Not sure if trolling or seriousness statement.

Corbyn is a polarizing figure. He just is, that's not up for discussion. Either you are part of that cult of true believers, that have taken over the Labour party, then you think Corbyn is like Jesus, with sole difference that Jesus was a jew, and the Labour under his leadership seemingly has some issues with that group. Yes, cheap shot, however the anti-semitism bit is a constant theme for Labour under his leadership. And he has not looked to good dealing with it. Then we have his non-existent BRexit policy, taht has alienated leavers and remainers alike (in that sense he is a truely unifying force). The list probably goes on for a bit. The sooner Labour manages to oust him again, the better.

[Gaston de Foix]

3 hours ago, Safiya said:

I think you underestimate the complete distrust of the US by many Tories, Jeremy Clarkson is a classic Tory, his position is based on the refusal by the US to support the UK over the Falkland Islands, there are many Tory politicians who have the same position as him.

I'm missing something here. 

43 minutes ago, Safiya said:

I'd take Clarke but not over Corbyn, Corbyn is the only one who could start reversing the vileness that is the UK at the present moment.

I'd be interested to hear what you understand to be vile about the UK, and what Corbyn would do to reverse it.  

[felice]

3 hours ago, Safiya said:

I'd take Clarke but not over Corbyn, Corbyn is the only one who could start reversing the vileness that is the UK at the present moment.

Corbyn is probably less awful than most of the alternatives in most respects, but he's absolutely not the right person for the present moment. Right now, what the UK needs more than anything else is someone who recognises what a disaster Brexit is and is willing to put Remain back on the table.