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Ser Dips A lot

House Arryn Enters The War

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So, presume that an alternate take on events leading up to the War of the Five Kings has taken place, and House Arryn now has a capable leader at the start of the War. Say that Jon Arryn had a son from one of his previous marriages before Lysa, or a nephew from his brother Ronnel; an Arryn with quality leadership traits and the charisma to incite a strong following in The Vale. Call him the new Lord Arryn. He reveals that Lysa is corrupt and colluded with LF in killing Jon Arryn. He has her and Robin exiled from the Vale, not executed, so that he can still form an alliance with potential Stark/Tully factions if need be.  He is now the undisputed ruler of the Vale and all the Vale lords support him, and even love him. He’s the new leader and decides to enter the War of the Five Kings. 

So, however it might have happened and the details are moot at this point, this is my scenario. The enemy is obviously House Lannister and whoever supports the pretender Joffrey.

If House Arryn has entered the war as a loose ally to House Stark and Stannis, without any binding pact to either, just as an advocate against house Lannister, how to they play their cards regarding Tywin’s army? Say we know Tywin is at Harrenhal and we pick up right where he’s about to head west, and Stannis’ attack on Kings Landing is about to happen. Do the Vale lord’s attack Harrenhal and pursue Tywin? Or lay siege on Kings Landing? How do you see them entering the mix in this scenario?

I know this is all hypothetical but bear with me and just go along because I just want to imagine how this would unfold. I’m very interested in what strategy a Vale army would have for entering this war. 

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I think all you need for your scenario to happen is for Lysa to die prior to marrying littlefinger.  Then his plans go to nothing and someone like Royce becomes Regent for Robin.  Royce would have joined the war right away I think.  

If this happens early enough, the Lannisters are hosed. Rob wouldn't have had to split his army if the Vale had been coming from the east.  They could have threatened King's landing while Rob counter Tywin in the riverlands and threatened the westerlands.  Tywin would be outnumbered.  He can't face both threats, and would have to eitherfall back to King's landing to defend Joffrey, or else fall back to the Westerlands.  If I'm Tywin, i grab Joffrey, Tomen, Myrcella and SANSA, and fall back to the Westerlands.  

The Greyjoys will probably still repeat their idiocy and invade the north, because Balon is a bitter old fool.  Or else Tywin can probably bribe them to do so.  Rob would then have to retreat to deal with that.  Tywin can make a peace with Rob for Sansa at that point. 

I think the Lannisters lose no matter what in this scenario, because they can't hold onto King's landing long enough for the Baratheon brothers to wreck each other, or they can't hold onto the westerlands.

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Posted (edited)

Its not as easy as you make it out to be. Actions and events happens depending on what happens before and elsewhere. If there are different things in the Vale, then things elsewhere will go differently and so on.

I realize that I may sound a bit angry at time. The reason is to make the impression that the scenario presented here does not make sense or would work out at all.

21 hours ago, Ser Dips A lot said:

So, presume that an alternate take on events leading up to the War of the Five Kings has taken place, and House Arryn now has a capable leader at the start of the War. Say that Jon Arryn had a son from one of his previous marriages before Lysa, or a nephew from his brother Ronnel; an Arryn with quality leadership traits and the charisma to incite a strong following in The Vale. Call him the new Lord Arryn. He reveals that Lysa is corrupt and colluded with LF in killing Jon Arryn. He has her and Robin exiled from the Vale, not executed, so that he can still form an alliance with potential Stark/Tully factions if need be.  He is now the undisputed ruler of the Vale and all the Vale lords support him, and even love him. He’s the new leader and decides to enter the War of the Five Kings.

To start with, with the Lannisters being innocent of Jon Arryn's death, Eddard may not at all head south with King Robert to become Hand of the King. Finding justice for Jon Arryn, under the impression that it was the Lannisters who killed him, was a major or even the major motivation for going south. With the plot of Lysa and Littlefinger exposed, why would Eddard go south with Robert?

And even more so, if Jon has a son of his own body who is an adult and grown strong, why would he marry Lysa and if not Lysa is there, why would he raise Littlefinger to any importance? These two things are extremely unlikely to take place with an adult son of Lord Arryn around.

I think that just this, and I could go on, is enough to throw a wrench into the development of the story as we know it.

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So, however it might have happened and the details are moot at this point, this is my scenario. The enemy is obviously House Lannister and whoever supports the pretender Joffrey.

Why would the enemy be House Lannister and King Joffrey? It was a Tully and a Baelish who killed Jon Arryn. And regardless or not, this Lord Arryn has just thrown Lysa Tully out of the Vale. It really isn't that far fetched that there would be a rift between the Tullys and the Arryns at this point as we wouldn't know to what degree the Tullys will just give up the idea of a half-Tully being the next Lord Arryn or even if they would believe the charges or just see it as a power grap by a pretender to the Eyrie.

Things like this don't go always smooth and are seen in the best possible light by people in Westeros.

Quote

If House Arryn has entered the war as a loose ally to House Stark and Stannis, without any binding pact to either, just as an advocate against house Lannister, how to they play their cards regarding Tywin’s army? Say we know Tywin is at Harrenhal and we pick up right where he’s about to head west, and Stannis’ attack on Kings Landing is about to happen. Do the Vale lord’s attack Harrenhal and pursue Tywin? Or lay siege on Kings Landing? How do you see them entering the mix in this scenario?

If the new Lord Arryn is so stupid as to jump into a war without securing allies, coordinate with possible allied forces or have a firm idea about what he wants after King Joffrey, who wasn't involved in the death of Jon Arryn in any case I might add, and what he wants to gain from the war then I would imagine that he would march straight to Harrenhall and break his army against those walls. After which the remains will slink back to the Vale and play not further part. Hence Tywin will not be stopped at the crossings over the Trident so the Tyrells can find him. He will be wading knee-deep, or higher, in the blood of the Knights of the Vale at Harrenhall, when the Tyrells arrives to join him going south to save King's Landing.

Quote

I know this is all hypothetical but bear with me and just go along because I just want to imagine how this would unfold. I’m very interested in what strategy a Vale army would have for entering this war. 

To start with Lord Arryn would need to get into contact with Robb or Stannis, decided which side he will support, and then move to help that side achieve their war objectives, then reap the rewards he've been promised for his contribution.

If Lord Arryn would aid Stannis, then threatening Tywin's rear is a bettter choice than trying to lay siege to Harrenhall, as it would make it more difficult for Tywin to move at will to the south with an army in his rear. Now the Tyrells will bring sufficient troops to both go to the capital and leave a rearguard to hold off the Knights of the Vale, but that wouldn't be known to Lord Arryn and most importantly, with less enemies in the field it MIGHT be possible for Stannis to withdraw more forces to his ships and regroups back in the Vale of Arryn to continue the war. But they could also use Stannis' control of the royal navy along with ships from the Vale to land the Knights of the Vale north of King's Landing and so allow for a assault from both north and south, or use the Valemen to attack Tywin's relieving army and so allow for Stannis to capture the city.

The key however is coordination and cooperation.

The scenario would be similar with siding with Robb. Coordination and cooperation.

Edited by Lion of the West

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5 hours ago, Lion of the West said:

Its not as easy as you make it out to be. Actions and events happens depending on what happens before and elsewhere. If there are different things in the Vale, then things elsewhere will go differently and so on.

I realize that I may sound a bit angry at time. The reason is to make the impression that the scenario presented here does not make sense or would work out at all.

To start with, with the Lannisters being innocent of Jon Arryn's death, Eddard may not at all head south with King Robert to become Hand of the King. Finding justice for Jon Arryn, under the impression that it was the Lannisters who killed him, was a major or even the major motivation for going south. With the plot of Lysa and Littlefinger exposed, why would Eddard go south with Robert?

And even more so, if Jon has a son of his own body who is an adult and grown strong, why would he marry Lysa and if not Lysa is there, why would he raise Littlefinger to any importance? These two things are extremely unlikely to take place with an adult son of Lord Arryn around.

I think that just this, and I could go on, is enough to throw a wrench into the development of the story as we know it.

Why would the enemy be House Lannister and King Joffrey? It was a Tully and a Baelish who killed Jon Arryn. And regardless or not, this Lord Arryn has just thrown Lysa Tully out of the Vale. It really isn't that far fetched that there would be a rift between the Tullys and the Arryns at this point as we wouldn't know to what degree the Tullys will just give up the idea of a half-Tully being the next Lord Arryn or even if they would believe the charges or just see it as a power grap by a pretender to the Eyrie.

Things like this don't go always smooth and are seen in the best possible light by people in Westeros.

If the new Lord Arryn is so stupid as to jump into a war without securing allies, coordinate with possible allied forces or have a firm idea about what he wants after King Joffrey, who wasn't involved in the death of Jon Arryn in any case I might add, and what he wants to gain from the war then I would imagine that he would march straight to Harrenhall and break his army against those walls. After which the remains will slink back to the Vale and play not further part. Hence Tywin will not be stopped at the crossings over the Trident so the Tyrells can find him. He will be wading knee-deep, or higher, in the blood of the Knights of the Vale at Harrenhall, when the Tyrells arrives to join him going south to save King's Landing.

To start with Lord Arryn would need to get into contact with Robb or Stannis, decided which side he will support, and then move to help that side achieve their war objectives, then reap the rewards he've been promised for his contribution.

If Lord Arryn would aid Stannis, then threatening Tywin's rear is a bettter choice than trying to lay siege to Harrenhall, as it would make it more difficult for Tywin to move at will to the south with an army in his rear. Now the Tyrells will bring sufficient troops to both go to the capital and leave a rearguard to hold off the Knights of the Vale, but that wouldn't be known to Lord Arryn and most importantly, with less enemies in the field it MIGHT be possible for Stannis to withdraw more forces to his ships and regroups back in the Vale of Arryn to continue the war. But they could also use Stannis' control of the royal navy along with ships from the Vale to land the Knights of the Vale north of King's Landing and so allow for a assault from both north and south, or use the Valemen to attack Tywin's relieving army and so allow for Stannis to capture the city.

The key however is coordination and cooperation.

The scenario would be similar with siding with Robb. Coordination and cooperation.

Yeah I’m well aware that my scenario here was a stretch and you can poke a lot of holes in it. My intent here wasn’t so much to focus on the details of House Arryn and how they came to a position of entering the war, just how they would act once their banners were called. With that said, my intention was to have a Lord Arryn with no rift with House Tully and an open-mind towards Stannis and Robb. It’s a stretch, I know, and highly debatable; It’s just for my imagination lol and for forethought on a potentially different outcome to the WotFK, in this scenario. 

I would see them turning the tide for Stannis; attacking Kings Landing from the North and therefore allowing the city to fall faster, before the Lannister-Tyrell alliance arrives. This is where I’m lost. Would the Tyrells even join the war if they knew House Arryn declared for Stannis? 

 

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Honestly if you look at things from the Lannister point of view, Tywin looks like he's in a terrible spot.

From all appearences, after Tyrion is kidnapped and Jamie stupidly attacks Ned in the street, the Lannisters are at odds against the entire Northern Coalition of the Riverlands, the North,and the Vale, with a King who is potentially going to back them as well.   Without other info, this would look like the begining of a conspiracy to destroy the Lannisters.  His alliance with the King is tenuous as he undoubtably knows Robert isn't a big Cersei fan, and the Crown owes the Lannisters a lot of money which could be erased if Tywin was attainted.

Tywin's moves in that light almost seem like that of a desperate man.  But it all works out for him.  The Vale doesn't move.  The Riverlands fail to unify and fight him off.  The King dies.  Its looking good again when suddenly Robb is winning battles and now Renly and Stannis are threatening to destroy Tywin's only real hope,his link to the throne.  But then Renly dies.  Stannis loses, and the Tyrells are tied to the Throne. 

Tywin got seriously lucky, and its probably only his good poker face that kept him going.

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20 hours ago, Ser Dips A lot said:

Yeah I’m well aware that my scenario here was a stretch and you can poke a lot of holes in it. My intent here wasn’t so much to focus on the details of House Arryn and how they came to a position of entering the war, just how they would act once their banners were called. With that said, my intention was to have a Lord Arryn with no rift with House Tully and an open-mind towards Stannis and Robb. It’s a stretch, I know, and highly debatable; It’s just for my imagination lol and for forethought on a potentially different outcome to the WotFK, in this scenario. 

I would see them turning the tide for Stannis; attacking Kings Landing from the North and therefore allowing the city to fall faster, before the Lannister-Tyrell alliance arrives. This is where I’m lost. Would the Tyrells even join the war if they knew House Arryn declared for Stannis? 

 

I think we might need more context behind this able bodied adult heir of Jon as well as the loose alliance with Robb and Stannis. The factions in the Wot5K are all declaring themselves Kings. The Tully's are swearing fealty to Robb as King. The Tyrells swear to Renly and then Joffrey. What would the Arryns do? Declare themselves Kings again? Stannis would have none of that.

This would strongly influence how they enter the fray.

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Posted (edited)

If the Vale mobilizes an army, lets say 25000 strong, then the Lord of the Vale(I'll call him Arryn) has three choices:- To support Renly, Stannis or Robb. Since the OP mentions them as a "loose ally to Stannis and Robb", I am gonna ignore Renly.

Case 1 Robb

If the Vale decides to follow Robb then Robb will probably be able to get a large enough force that he can send an army to attack Tywin Lannister and another to defeat Stafford Lannister. Now it is likely that Stafford will be defeated, but with Tywin it could go either way. Most probably in a battle against Tywin both sides would suffer heavy casualties and it could stop tywin from coming to the aid of King's Landing. If Stannis wins at the battle of the Blackwater then it is pretty much game over for the Lannisters. If he loses then things could get interesting. But it is likely that Robb will still lose because he will probably still marry Jeyne and get killed at the Red Wedding. Even if that does not happen he still has to worry about the Ironborn. The Reach and The Lannisters combined with the ironborn threat might be too much to handle for the Young Wolf.

Case 2 Stannis.

If the Vale declares for Stannis then a crucial factor would be the timing. If the Vale pledged loyalty right at the beginning of the war. then Stannis probably would not need to attack Renly and would instead attack Kings Landing immediately. This time there would be no Lannister-Tyrell army to save it. so Kings Landing falls and Joff and Cersei gets executed and Tyrion is kept as a hostage. Stannis might end up having to use the shadow assassin eventually to get rid of Renly. The Tyrells would then be forced to bend the knee since they have nowhere else to go to. Stannis would then march against Tywin while Robb attacks the Westerlands, Even if Robb ends up marrying Jeyne. the Freys would not be able to act since they only did so because they were guaranteed Lannister protection which in this case won't mean much. Tywin probably ends up getting defeated because Stannis with Vale and Stormlands support Stan would outnumber him. Then Stan would probably be preparing to attack the north when he gets the letter from the NW and he goes to the north and learns about the WW. Then probably Stannis and Robb team up to defend the North. 

 

 

 

  

Edited by EccentricHorse11

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11 hours ago, EccentricHorse11 said:

If the Vale mobilizes an army, lets say 25000 strong, then the Lord of the Vale(I'll call him Arryn) has three choices:- To support Renly, Stannis or Robb. Since the OP mentions them as a "loose ally to Stannis and Robb", I am gonna ignore Renly.

Case 1 Robb

If the Vale decides to follow Robb then Robb will probably be able to get a large enough force that he can send an army to attack Tywin Lannister and another to defeat Stafford Lannister. Now it is likely that Stafford will be defeated, but with Tywin it could go either way. Most probably in a battle against Tywin both sides would suffer heavy casualties and it could stop tywin from coming to the aid of King's Landing. If Stannis wins at the battle of the Blackwater then it is pretty much game over for the Lannisters. If he loses then things could get interesting. But it is likely that Robb will still lose because he will probably still marry Jeyne and get killed at the Red Wedding. Even if that does not happen he still has to worry about the Ironborn. The Reach and The Lannisters combined with the ironborn threat might be too much to handle for the Young Wolf.

Case 2 Stannis.

If the Vale declares for Stannis then a crucial factor would be the timing. If the Vale pledged loyalty right at the beginning of the war. then Stannis probably would not need to attack Renly and would instead attack Kings Landing immediately. This time there would be no Lannister-Tyrell army to save it. so Kings Landing falls and Joff and Cersei gets executed and Tyrion is kept as a hostage. Stannis might end up having to use the shadow assassin eventually to get rid of Renly. The Tyrells would then be forced to bend the knee since they have nowhere else to go to. Stannis would then march against Tywin while Robb attacks the Westerlands, Even if Robb ends up marrying Jeyne. the Freys would not be able to act since they only did so because they were guaranteed Lannister protection which in this case won't mean much. Tywin probably ends up getting defeated because Stannis with Vale and Stormlands support Stan would outnumber him. Then Stan would probably be preparing to attack the north when he gets the letter from the NW and he goes to the north and learns about the WW. Then probably Stannis and Robb team up to defend the North. 

 

 

 

  

That’s what I was looking for, so thank you. Interesting thought about Stannis. With immediate support from the Vale , putting the Renly situation on hold and attacking King’s Landing right away makes a lot of sense. That shadow assassin trick could always be postponed I suppose. But I know there’s a lot of room for speculation on this, from a lot of angels haha but I see that scenario bearing some fruit for Arryn, Stannis, and Robb. . Renly might even renounce his claim at that point. Robb certainly wouldn’t be so indecisive about choosing a King and bending the knee once he sees Stannis take the throne. Say Sansa survives the siege and Stannis offers her to Robb, or perhaps demands fealty first. Either way, I see a Robb/Stannis alliance almost guaranteed if Sansa survives. The Vale entering the war on behalf of Stannis, at the beginning of the war or even later, like you said timing is key, is still bad bad news for The Lannister’s.

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On 8/1/2019 at 5:05 PM, nyser1 said:

I think we might need more context behind this able bodied adult heir of Jon as well as the loose alliance with Robb and Stannis. The factions in the Wot5K are all declaring themselves Kings. The Tully's are swearing fealty to Robb as King. The Tyrells swear to Renly and then Joffrey. What would the Arryns do? Declare themselves Kings again? Stannis would have none of that.

This would strongly influence how they enter the fray.

@Ser Dips A lot I still would like to see the reasoning to give my input. With that said, what we know about Stannis suggests that he would not be accepting a "loose alliance". He has the mindset of you are my subject or my enemy. If some how the situation this "loose Stannis alliance" as in the above few posts, I think it just becomes an utter s%$t show. Stark/Tully vs. Stannis/Arryn vs. Stormlands/Reach vs. Westerlands/Mainland Crownlands vs Iron Islands vs. Secessionist Dorne (with possible Aegon?).

Renly dies - just shift some Stormlands forces to Stannis and the Reach to the Lannisters. Heck the Reach is strong enough to make a play on its own.

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3 hours ago, nyser1 said:

@Ser Dips A lot I still would like to see the reasoning to give my input. With that said, what we know about Stannis suggests that he would not be accepting a "loose alliance". He has the mindset of you are my subject or my enemy. If some how the situation this "loose Stannis alliance" as in the above few posts, I think it just becomes an utter s%$t show. Stark/Tully vs. Stannis/Arryn vs. Stormlands/Reach vs. Westerlands/Mainland Crownlands vs Iron Islands vs. Secessionist Dorne (with possible Aegon?).

Renly dies - just shift some Stormlands forces to Stannis and the Reach to the Lannisters. Heck the Reach is strong enough to make a play on its own.

When I said  loose ally, I  meant that House Arryn would only initially be in this position. They call their banners to fight House Lannister and the fBaratheons and declare for a King later would be my idea, if things are that complicated with Stannis and Robb at the time. Surely the Vale wouldn’t have to deal with Stannis right away if they’re marching on Tywin or Kings Landing. My enemy’s enemy is my friend. So fighting against the same foe does resemble some loose alliance, to me anyways, whether coordinated or not.  The loose ally concept, still, was a bad use of words when regarding The One True King so I do understand your point; Stannis, as you said about his mindset with “your my subject or enemy,” would demand fealty right away most likely and sooner or later the Vale would have to answer or face Stannis himself. But right out of the gate, I would picture the Vale to being able to act independently in the war, and deal with Stannis and swearing fealty later or in the aftermath of a King's Landing siege. So with that said, my whole idea here was to just get speculation on how the Vale militarily impacts the situation with the Lannister army but now I see there are indeed many angels on this that make this a difficult matter to speculate on. 

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20 hours ago, Ser Dips A lot said:

When I said  loose ally, I  meant that House Arryn would only initially be in this position. They call their banners to fight House Lannister and the fBaratheons and declare for a King later would be my idea, if things are that complicated with Stannis and Robb at the time. Surely the Vale wouldn’t have to deal with Stannis right away if they’re marching on Tywin or Kings Landing. My enemy’s enemy is my friend. So fighting against the same foe does resemble some loose alliance, to me anyways, whether coordinated or not.  The loose ally concept, still, was a bad use of words when regarding The One True King so I do understand your point; Stannis, as you said about his mindset with “your my subject or enemy,” would demand fealty right away most likely and sooner or later the Vale would have to answer or face Stannis himself. But right out of the gate, I would picture the Vale to being able to act independently in the war, and deal with Stannis and swearing fealty later or in the aftermath of a King's Landing siege. So with that said, my whole idea here was to just get speculation on how the Vale militarily impacts the situation with the Lannister army but now I see there are indeed many angels on this that make this a difficult matter to speculate on. 

Thanks for the elaboration. It is a good topic and I like topic like these.

 

I think a catalyst that realistically sets this off is to kill Tyrion in the Vale. He jumps from his cell, loses his trial by combat, Lysa kills him anyways, or whatever it is. Even though Lysa is loyal to Baelish, this is going to draw the wrath of Tywin (and will likely make him want to give Riverrun the Castamere treatment).

Baelish knows he cannot befriend Stannis. As a result, he pulls the Ned Stark card with Vale lords like Yohn Royce. He may see the Young Wolf as Ned 2.0 and thus manipulatable. The Arryns call their banners and join Robb Stark's war efforts against the Lannisters. The Northern army significantly increases in strength. They march South to face the two Lannister hosts. Robb still defeats Jaime and Tywin is at the very least kept in check (or he retreats).

 

Meanwhile, Stannis is going to shadowbaby Renly regardless. However, no Baelish means nobody is going to broker the Lannister-Tyrell alliance before Stannis hits King's Landing. Stannis sacks the city with Tommen presumed dead (meanwhile in Rosby). He would still have some of the Reach backing him, while I imagine the rest would be watching on to see which side to join. Stannis demands fealty but Robb's lords and Baelish convince him not to bend the knee. 

This is where it gets interesting - I think the Iron Islands would be more inclined to reave the Western Coast of the South. Additionally, Baelish may do some politicking for himself with houses in the Vale and/or the Reach.

 

So much could happen. :)

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