"And not just the free folk"

[Ckram]

Premise

When Jon meets Mance for the first time, he reports on the activities of the Night Patrol full of half-truths. Among the facts reported, Mance and Jon hold the following dialogue:

• ASOS, Jon I

Still... a boy from Castle Black with rangers from the Shadow Tower? How did that come to be?”
Jon had his lie all ready. “The Lord Commander sent me to the Halfhand for seasoning, so he took me on his ranging.”
Styr the Magnar frowned at that. “Ranging, you call it... why would crows come ranging up the Skirling Pass?”
“The villages were deserted,” Jon said, truthfully. “It was as if all the free folk had vanished.”
*“Vanished, aye,” said Mance Rayder. “*And not just the free folk. Who told you where we were, Jon Snow?”
Tormund snorted. “It were Craster, or I’m a blushing maid. I told you, Mance, that creature needs to be shorter by a head.”
The king gave the older man an irritated look. “Tormund, someday try thinking before you speak. I know it was Craster. I asked Jon to see if he would tell it true.”

Styr reacts to Jon telling it was a ranging because Quorin’s band was too far off Shadow Tower territory. Then he immediately asks for the reason that brought them to Skirling Pass (where Rattleshirt had captured Jon).

When Jon answers the deserted villages rose their alert, Mance starts to suspect they had paid Craster a visit (a detail we became of aware because of Tormund’s bluntness). But before he began to test Jon’s honesty, he responds Jon report with “And not just the Free Folk”.

Mance could be referring to giants, CoTF, animals, etc, but his intervention only fits like a glove if he is telling Jon, a deserter, of vanished NW men, especially the First Ranger, Benjen Stark, Jon’s uncle. Mance mused why Jon was there, and as Styr’s frown showed, a range that far from Shadow Tower was unusual. So, what better reason than looking for Benjen?

Despite Mance and Benjen never met (“Your uncle did not know me by sight, so I had no fear from that quarter”), Benjen’s disappearance is something that Mance would have known. Note, he knew when Robert was coming to Winterfell and that Benjen was coming to the feast. And that’s a much lesser deal than Benjen’s disappearance.

If Benjen had passed by Mance, the King-Beyond-the-Wall would have noticed. So Benjen didn’t.

It happens we know where Mance was all this time.

Chronology

When Jon arrives at Whitetree (April 21th of 299, if we believe “The most precise Timeline”) we hear there where wildlings there “only a year ago" (298 DC).

According to Craster, the empty villages were work of Mance Rayder, but the aforementioned dialogue shows it was not the case. However, Craster thinks it was so due the fact Mance sent a rider for him, when Craster probably learned of Mance’s horde.

We don’t know the date the rider arriver at Craster’s keep, but we knew that there still were people on Whitetree around the day Benjen left the Wall (Jun 15th of 298). So, the place the rider told Craster where to find Mance should be the same Mance was when Ben Stark disappeared.

Location

"A wolf dream," the Halfhand said. "Craster told the Lord Commander that the wildlings were gathering at the source of the Milkwater. That may be why you dreamed it. Or it may be that you saw what waits for us, a few hours farther on."

The official maps diverge a bit regarding the exact location of the source of the Milkwater (check ot the maps from James Sinclair, Jeffrey L. Ward e Jonathan Roberts), but all converge on some characteristics:

1. It is on the Frostfangs;
2. North to Skirling Pass;
3. West of Fist of First Men.

A very wide and vague area to make a good cut out, no? Maybe not.

Benjen was headed west from Castle Black (“Uncle Benjen said they might search as far as the Shadow Tower. That's all the way up in the mountains.” – AGOT, Jon III), he didn’t reached Craster’s Keep ("I've not seen Benjen Stark for three years" – ACOK, Jon III), nobody saw him near Shadow Tower, Mance had eyes in Skirling Pass, like Rattleshirt’s band ("Watchers in the Skirling Pass," … "What is it Mance Rayder fears, I wonder?" – ACOK, Jon VI), and Ben did not went as far as the Milkwater’s source, otherwise Mance would have spotted him or his men.

So it is likely that whatever happened to Benjen, it did happen inside the following perimeter: west of Castle Black, south of Milkwater’s source, east of the Frostfangs and north of the Wall.

 

Any thoughts?

[kissdbyfire]

Have you read this essay by @sweetsunray?

If not, what are you waiting for?