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Robb’s Strategy


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23 hours ago, Lord Daedrunk said:

Thanks for the link. I rarely read or listen to any Q&As with GRRM, but perhaps I should for these little nuggets of information. 

No prob.  The whole thing is strongly hinted at by the text but it is definitely easy to overlook the interview stuff

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13 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

I don't think this is true, at all.

First off, it's debatable in the extreme whether Tywin would consider Myrcella to be a legitimate contender for the throne.  His extreme misogyny, coupled with several generations of precedent which dictate that women shouldn't inherit the IT, might work against him.

Second, it's not clear that Doran would accept this. As he makes clear, he has two goals; to avenge Elia and her kids, and to regain the power he sort of held when he was the father in law to the Crown Prince.  With Myrcella, those are mutually incompatible - to put his son on the Throne means rewarding the man he knows killed Elia.  

The thing is, under these circumstances, he can't get revenge.  Lets assume that Edmure doesn't stop Tywin at the Fords, Stannis takes Kings Landing, and Cersei, Joffrey, and Tommen die.  Where does Tywin stand?  Jaime is still in captivity, technically.  I can't quite recall if Cat knows about the results of Blackwater when she frees Jaime, but it stands to reason she does, or else she wouldn't think the Lannisters were in a position to return Sansa and "Arya".  Tyrion, for all that he's hated, is dead.  Robb is burning and pillaging at will in the West.  What exactly is Tywin going to do?  Most of his vassals aren't going to fight on; they're going to sue for peace or go home to protect their lands.  Tywin no longer has any chips.  He is massively outnumbered, he's got nothing left to fight for and no allies left to call in, massively outnumbered, having hemorrhaged men throughout the WOT5K, he's got a losing hand and no one he can bluff.  What he'll do is try and parlay what little influence he has left, from his money and his army, into securing Jaime's release.  Even if he wants to challenge for the throne for Myrcella, he won't have the Tyrells as allies, since they won't ally with the Dornish.... in other words, he's screwed.  

The problem with your argument is that Tywin's character would never back down.  You are thinking of everything in the context of a rational person, and Tywin isnt rational, Tywin murders entire families. 

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The biggest mistake of Robb Stark was imo to declare The North indepedent becuase this makes everyone an enemy. If he kept his friendship with The Baratheons then he could ally with any of them (he would probably ally himelf with Stannis though) and he would win the war. Their only enemy would be a Lannister-Tyrell alliance but I suspect that The Tyrells would never back The Lannisters in an all-out War if Stannis didn't threaten their position at Highgarden.

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On 8/26/2019 at 3:30 AM, dsjj251 said:

Tywin didnt sue for peace when Jamie or Tyrion were captured, He set the Riverlands on fire.  He would do no different for Cersei or Joffrey or Tommen. 

Actually Joff and  Tomman being captured and executed would mean that Stannis is the rightful heir even if you ignore the twincest, so who will Tywin try to put on the throne? There is nothing left to fight for. 

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On 8/30/2019 at 7:40 AM, EccentricHorse11 said:

Actually Joff and  Tomman being captured and executed would mean that Stannis is the rightful heir even if you ignore the twincest, so who will Tywin try to put on the throne? There is nothing left to fight for. 

Marcella would be the rightful heir over Stannis as a daughter comes before an uncle. 

Even Fire and blood makes this case for Aerea over  Jaehaerys  even Rhaena over Jaehaerys. 

 

but since Tywin didnt fight for Aegon the XI or Viserys III after , im guessing he doesnt care who is the rightful heir. 

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3 hours ago, dsjj251 said:

Marcella would be the rightful heir over Stannis as a daughter comes before an uncle. 

After the Dance of the Dragons, the succession laws for the Iron Throne were changed to only male claimants inheriting. Which means the daughter of the King will always be bypassed for the male uncle or cousin. This is seen when Viserys I was made King after Baelor the blessed died, whom had 2-3 sisters ready to claim queenship but were bypassed by the small council due to the succession laws being changed during Aegon III reign.

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9 hours ago, The Young Maester said:

After the Dance of the Dragons, the succession laws for the Iron Throne were changed to only male claimants inheriting. Which means the daughter of the King will always be bypassed for the male uncle or cousin. This is seen when Viserys I was made King after Baelor the blessed died, whom had 2-3 sisters ready to claim queenship but were bypassed by the small council due to the succession laws being changed during Aegon III reign.

Your post is a theory based on reading  TWOIAF.  

However Fire and Blood destroys that theory as the Blacks won and seated Aegon the III on the Iron Throne, not as Aegon II's heir, but as Rhaenyra's.

TWOIAF makes a claim that Aegon decreed Rhaenyra to always be labeled a princess, and that Aegon II named Aegon III his heir and married him to his daughter.  But Fire and Blood  which Martin says is accurate clearly states that Aegon II wanted to kill Aegon III and that the Blacks won the war and were marching on the capital to crown Aegon III in his own right as Rhaenyra's heir and only married him to Jaehaera after the fact. 

 

 
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16 hours ago, dsjj251 said:

Marcella would be the rightful heir over Stannis as a daughter comes before an uncle. 

 Even Fire and blood makes this case for Aerea over  Jaehaerys  even Rhaena over Jaehaerys. 

  

but since Tywin didnt fight for Aegon the XI or Viserys III after , im guessing he doesnt care who is the rightful heir. 

Actually daughters don't seem to be considered that important.

"You are very free to name others traitor and usurper, my lord, yet how are you any different? You say you alone are the rightful king, yet it seems to me that Robert had two sons. By all the laws of the Seven Kingdoms, Prince Joffrey is his rightful heir, and Tornmen after him".- Catelyn A Clash of Kings chapter 31

Note that Catelyn says 'two sons' rather than '3 children' which would have been the more appropriate word choice if Myrcella was considered to be ahead of Stannis in the line of succession.

 

Yeah sure Tywin does not care who the rightful heir, but the thing is who is he going to try to fight for? Nearly all his family is dead or hostage and also Myrcella is under Dornish hands and Doran might hand her over the Stannis as that would the safest thing for them to do. 

 

 

 

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37 minutes ago, EccentricHorse11 said:

Actually daughters don't seem to be considered that important.

"You are very free to name others traitor and usurper, my lord, yet how are you any different? You say you alone are the rightful king, yet it seems to me that Robert had two sons. By all the laws of the Seven Kingdoms, Prince Joffrey is his rightful heir, and Tornmen after him".- Catelyn A Clash of Kings chapter 31

Note that Catelyn says 'two sons' rather than '3 children' which would have been the more appropriate word choice if Myrcella was considered to be ahead of Stannis in the line of succession.

 

Yeah sure Tywin does not care who the rightful heir, but the thing is who is he going to try to fight for? Nearly all his family is dead or hostage and also Myrcella is under Dornish hands and Doran might hand her over the Stannis as that would the safest thing for them to do. 

 

 

 

Our Story overlooks daughters because of "might equals right" and women cant fight for their own rights, but in every case where a daughter can, they do. There have been ruling ladies in at least 3 kingdoms outside of Dorne and multiple houses that have had ruling ladies. And Rhaenyra herself.  as well as the fact that the claims of other women were voted on in great councils, not outright outlawed under succession laws for them being women as claimed. 

Again, women who can fight for their claims, do. 

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On 8/30/2019 at 11:29 AM, Dreadscythe95 said:

The biggest mistake of Robb Stark was imo to declare The North indepedent

It wasn't Robb who declared The North (and The Riverlands) independent. It was his lords who wanted that. You cannot easily go against that if you still need them to fight for you.

 

On 8/30/2019 at 11:29 AM, Dreadscythe95 said:

becuase this makes everyone an enemy. If he kept his friendship with The Baratheons then he could ally with any of them (he would probably ally himelf with Stannis though)

This was a problem. Robb was always in the field so, the news arrived slowly and made communication and coordination difficult.

 

On 8/30/2019 at 11:29 AM, Dreadscythe95 said:

and he would win the war. Their only enemy would be a Lannister-Tyrell alliance but I suspect that The Tyrells would never back The Lannisters in an all-out War if Stannis didn't threaten their position at Highgarden.

The Tyrells wanted to become part of the crown. Renly and later Tyrion offered them that.

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On 8/29/2019 at 9:46 PM, cpg2016 said:

The thing is, under these circumstances, he can't get revenge.  Lets assume that Edmure doesn't stop Tywin at the Fords, Stannis takes Kings Landing, and Cersei, Joffrey, and Tommen die.  Where does Tywin stand?  Jaime is still in captivity, technically.  I can't quite recall if Cat knows about the results of Blackwater when she frees Jaime, but it stands to reason she does, or else she wouldn't think the Lannisters were in a position to return Sansa and "Arya". 

Just to pointing out that Cat learn about the defeat of Stannis after freeing Jaime. She had hoped that Tyrion will uphold his word and return her daughters. She was appalled when she learned that Tyrion may have died there.

 

On 8/29/2019 at 9:46 PM, cpg2016 said:

Tyrion, for all that he's hated, is dead.  Robb is burning and pillaging at will in the West.  What exactly is Tywin going to do?  Most of his vassals aren't going to fight on; they're going to sue for peace or go home to protect their lands.  Tywin no longer has any chips. 

Indeed. This is important to remark that was exactly what Robb was intending. Even Tywin cannot ignore his subjects and knowing that someone was holding their families hostage is terrible for the moral of his armies and the prestige of Tywin as a leader.

 

 

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28 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

It wasn't Robb who declared The North (and The Riverlands) independent. It was his lords who wanted that. You cannot easily go against that if you still need them to fight for you.

 

This was a problem. Robb was always in the field so, the news arrived slowly and made communication and coordination difficult.

 

The Tyrells wanted to become part of the crown. Renly and later Tyrion offered them that.

Yes but they would never fight a losing War.

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On 8/7/2019 at 4:49 PM, Loose Bolt said:

Robb cannot totally ignore his Tully roots. Or the fact that his mother was/is a Tully and he himself has a minor claim to Riverrun means that he had to do something to brake the siege of RR.

Probably, considering Catelyn brought this hell down upon them.  

On 8/7/2019 at 12:27 AM, Ser Dips A lot said:

 

You got a lot of things right.  I do have an issue with your assessment of the Freys.  They are reliable.  They carried out their side of the pact right down to the last details.  They lost Number 1 son in service to the Starks.  Walder Frey became the Stark's largest donor and made Robb's second in command a rich man.  Robb screwed over his most productive ally.  

 

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On 9/3/2019 at 9:18 AM, dsjj251 said:

Your post is a theory based on reading  TWOIAF.  

However Fire and Blood destroys that theory as the Blacks won and seated Aegon the III on the Iron Throne, not as Aegon II's heir, but as Rhaenyra's.

TWOIAF makes a claim that Aegon decreed Rhaenyra to always be labeled a princess, and that Aegon II named Aegon III his heir and married him to his daughter.  But Fire and Blood  which Martin says is accurate clearly states that Aegon II wanted to kill Aegon III and that the Blacks won the war and were marching on the capital to crown Aegon III in his own right as Rhaenyra's heir and only married him to Jaehaera after the fact. 

women came after all men in the Targaryen succession. Which means women could only succeed if the entire male line of house targaryen dies. Did you not read my post? After the dance of the dragons, every Lord in westeros decided that a female heir would be no more. This is proven when King Baelor died without siring any children and the council and other lords decided its best to name the kings uncle as king, fully bypassing the Kings sisters, and this was due to the Dance of the Dragons. Dorne might be the only kingdom willing to accept a female ruler on the Iron Throne after the dance of the dragons.

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13 hours ago, The Young Maester said:

women came after all men in the Targaryen succession. Which means women could only succeed if the entire male line of house targaryen dies. Did you not read my post? After the dance of the dragons, every Lord in westeros decided that a female heir would be no more. This is proven when King Baelor died without siring any children and the council and other lords decided its best to name the kings uncle as king, fully bypassing the Kings sisters, and this was due to the Dance of the Dragons. Dorne might be the only kingdom willing to accept a female ruler on the Iron Throne after the dance of the dragons.

1. Yes I read your post, and I told you it was flawed and laid out why, did you read mine ?

2. NO, every lord in Westeros did not decided female heirs would be no more. That is blatantly false. 

3. Your Baelor argument doesnt work because he had locked up the female members of his family for a decade and people thought them to be crazy at that point. Every time women were passed over, a justification was given, the same for men who have been passed over

Lets be clear, your whole argument was based on something that wasnt true, which is that there were succession laws made following the Dance of the Dragons  that said only men could inherit the thrown.  That is completely false, the Black Council were loyal to Rhaenyra to the point that they marched on King's landing after she was killed and pledged to put her son on the Iron Throne when they took the city, and they fulfilled that promise. 


They placed Aegon III on the throne, executed traitors to Rhaenyra. Those people certainly didnt make any law saying women couldnt inherit the throne, and that was your claim. 

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I agree that Robb's strategy was a very good one, given the circumstances. He made some errors, but those are only noticeable with the benefit of hindsight and after the fact. No one could have predicted that Roose would betray him or that Renly would be murdered by a shadow.

The things that he could have done better, as I see it, are:

  • Comunicate to Edmure his plans to lure Tywin to the West, or at least, give him specific orders to let him pass through the Riverlands. That's his main mistake.
  • He trusted Theon too much, and failed to understand that Balon had every reason to hate the Starks after they killed his two sons and kidnapped the third. Also, using the phrase "I will give you a crown" is a huge diplomatic blunder. I think that Robb may have had some chances to convince Balon to join him if he had addressed as an equal, had appealed his basic instincts (finish what he started in the first rebellion, sack the wealth of the west, and pay the iron price), and made the point that the Ironmen couldn't stand alone against all of Westeros and that an independent kingdom of the North and the Riverlands was their best chance to be independent.
  • In order to convince/force Lysa to join them, perhaps he should have tried something more forceful. Spread the rumor that the Lannisters killed Jon Arryn. Then, make public Lysa's letter accusing them of doing so. After that, Lysa would have a much harder time maintaining neutrality.
On 8/7/2019 at 6:27 AM, Ser Dips A lot said:

Whether or not Robb has the numbers to lay a siege after a major battle with Tywin, or if he even wins that battle...who knows.

We can be reasonably sure that he had not. Robb brought down about 20.000 men from the North. Tywin's army was about the same size, slightly higher.

Tywin would have the luxury of choosing the ground, while the Northmen would arrive exhausted after a very long march. It's very unlikely that Robb would be able to defeat an experienced commander such as Tywin in those circumstances.

But for Robb it wouldn't suffice to win the battle. He'd also need to completely annihilate Tywin's army without taking significant casualties, then keep forcing the march towards King's Landing, hope that Jaime doesn't attack him in the rear, and then lay siege with less than 20.000 men to a city of one million people. It just wouldn't work. His best hope was to try to capture Jaime to exchange him for Ned, and that's what he went for.

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On 9/4/2019 at 5:43 PM, The Young Maester said:

women came after all men in the Targaryen succession. Which means women could only succeed if the entire male line of house targaryen dies. Did you not read my post? After the dance of the dragons, every Lord in westeros decided that a female heir would be no more. This is proven when King Baelor died without siring any children and the council and other lords decided its best to name the kings uncle as king, fully bypassing the Kings sisters, and this was due to the Dance of the Dragons. Dorne might be the only kingdom willing to accept a female ruler on the Iron Throne after the dance of the dragons.

This is more an assumption than a fact, even when Viserys II is crowned is underlined the fact that being in a golden cage for so many years left the girls without support, it's a fact tho, that Aelora Targaryen died Princess of Dragonstone and Aerys' heir before Maekar and his children and no one cared about the GC101. 

And @dsjj251 is right, whatever reasonongs the Greens might give, Aegon III was crowned as Rhaenrya's heir, nor Aegon II, not Daemon's. The Blacks who made him King didn't care about Aegon II decree and the Greens didn't have the might to refuse.

 

@The hairy bear

 

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  • Not communicating to Edmure his plans to lure Tywin to the West, or at least, not giving him specific orders to let him pass through the Riverlands. That's his main mistake.

True, the guy totally fucked up there.

 

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He trusted Theon too much, and failed to understand that Balon had every reason to hate the Starks after they killed his two sons and kidnapped the third. Also, using the phrase "I will give you a crown" is a huge diplomatic blunder. I think that Robb may have had some chances to convince Balon to join him if he had addressed as an equal, had appealed his basic instincts (finish what he started in the first rebellion, sack the wealth of the west, and pay the iron price), and made the point that the Ironmen couldn't stand alone against all of Westeros and that an independent kingdom of the North and the Riverlands was their best chance to be independent.

I don't think it's fair, it's like saying that Cat had a point by saying he couldn't trust Jon, Theon was a brother to Robb, which is the reason that by all the redemption the show and the books want to give him, I can't feel sorry for him, the man deserves that and more. The Starks didn't kill Balon's sons, Balon projected his hatred in Ned, Rodrik died by Jason Mallister hands and the other pretty much like Elyn Reyne did.

But tbf, Theon is the only reason why Balon's campaign has a chance of succes in the North, becayse just like all of Balon's plans, this was also  based in pure idiocy, had Theon not take Winterfell and "killed" the wolflings, the North would've repelled them without Robb had to even hear about it.

I don't think the man needed Balon that much, I think the North had enough resources, or if not they could always sack the Westerlands, to built a fleet strong enough to compete with the Redwynes and the Iron Islands, I trust my man Wyman.

 

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  • In order to convince/force Lysa to join them, perhaps he should have tried something more forceful. Spread the rumor that the Lannisters killed Jon Arryn. Then, make public Lysa's letter accusing them of doing so. After that, Lysa would have a much harder time maintaining neutrality.

Lysa was a lost cause, curse the woman, she wouldn't have risked her son for anyone and she certainly didn't give a flying fuck about her family.

 

 

 

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