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Illyrio's Motives


Lost Melnibonean

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2 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

What Varys is suggesting is that it shouldn't matter who your daddy was.  That line of thinking leads to bad rulers like Aerys.  So Varys and Illyrio have taken it upon themselves to "engineer" a ruler, through education and a humble background.  The only caveat is that Young Griff has to look the part, to convince the ignorant rabble that he has a "legitimate" claim to the throne.

We see plenty of examples of sons being quite unlike their fathers in this story, with brothers being chalk and cheese, and the 'rules' putting the inferior specimen first. Varys has a point, and of course in today's world we really don't like hereditary claims to power, either. This idea of getting someone in place who has been 'trained' for the role is quite radical. It will be interesting to see whether GRRM allows it to succeed ;)

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4 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

The reason I discount the pisswater prince theory (that Aegon is neither Rhaegar's son nor the heir to the Blackfyre claim), is that I fail to see sufficient motivation for Varys and Illyrio spending half their lives to putting just anyone on the Iron Throne. 

If the guy is Illyrio's son then this could be motivation enough. One of them should also have some connection to or interest in Westeros to explain why they are invested in that continent rather their own home turf, but that could be essentially anything.

4 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

Yes, that's my thought.  I don't think that Illyrio and Varys' grand plan is another attempt at a Blackfyre rebellion.  I think that's a little bit too mundane for what GRRM is probably planning.

That's definitely nothing they ever tried. Even if Aegon were a Blackfyre descendant through the female line, he wouldn't be a Blackfyre - and they would never try to sell him as a Blackfyre considering the plan is to make him a Targaryen.

4 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

I think that this is an attempt to put a ruler on the throne that was specifically educated and humbled by a modest upbringing.  As opposed to someone taking the throne because his daddy had it before him.  In fact Illyrio and Varys very much seem like GRRM unlikely protagonists.  (But of course GRRM is hinting that the best laid plans of mice and cheesemongers will probably go awry, especially since it seems that Young Griff has turned out to be a bit of a petulant, impulsive lad.)

We can read the Epilogue as Varys' manifesto what the point of the Aegon plan is. What the endgame there is - to create a good king from scratch.

The question that has yet to be answered is why Varys would want to do that. Why he wants to create a good king and why he is interested in Westeros in the first place.

But the point of the Aegon plan from his point of view has already been answered. We will likely something more of that once Aegon and Varys actually interact in later novels, but as readers we should already know what the point of the whole thing was.

The fact that Aegon himself might fuck things up (or rather: fail to be the kind of king Varys wanted to create) might be future plot material. I've said it for years that I can see Varys cutting Aegon's throat and continue with some other pretender who - for whatever reason - shows the kind of promise Varys wanted to see in Aegon.

Aegon is a means to an end for Varys, not the end.

2 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

What Varys is suggesting is that it shouldn't matter who your daddy was.  That line of thinking leads to bad rulers like Aerys.  So Varys and Illyrio have taken it upon themselves to "engineer" a ruler, through education and a humble background.  The only caveat is that Young Griff has to look the part, to convince the ignorant rabble that he has a "legitimate" claim to the throne.

I'd say there are two crucial things in the riddle. The abstract part is the question where power resides - the concrete part is that Varys actually knows where power resides for most of the Westerosi people. The reason he creates a Targaryen king can, in my opinion, be seen as indication that a Targaryen king as savior is what most of the Westerosi people would want in a crisis (or can at least be convinced to want by manipulators such as Varys and Illyrio). We have the smallfolk looking back to the glorious reign of King Aerys II since ACoK and there are plenty of people (Kingslanders, Crackclaw Point folk, Reach men, White Harbor whores, Riverlanders, etc.) who would like to see a Targaryen restoration happening. Even in Oldtown do men raise their cups to toast Daenerys Targaryen.

Varys could have made his king a child of some other dynasty - but he made him a Targaryen (if he isn't Rhaegar's son) because that has the best chance of success.

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28 minutes ago, Rufus Snow said:

We see plenty of examples of sons being quite unlike their fathers in this story, with brothers being chalk and cheese, and the 'rules' putting the inferior specimen first. Varys has a point, and of course in today's world we really don't like hereditary claims to power, either. This idea of getting someone in place who has been 'trained' for the role is quite radical. It will be interesting to see whether GRRM allows it to succeed ;)

Well, responsible lords and kings also groom their heirs to rule. Aegon is a very odd case considering his shielded upbringing didn't really prepare him for the game of thrones at court. That is ... if we assume he spent most of his life on that boat or in a similar environment - which isn't really feasible. They must have been some place else, possibly on Illyrio's estates in the Flatlands or some other place.

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36 minutes ago, Rufus Snow said:

We see plenty of examples of sons being quite unlike their fathers in this story, with brothers being chalk and cheese, and the 'rules' putting the inferior specimen first. Varys has a point, and of course in today's world we really don't like hereditary claims to power, either. This idea of getting someone in place who has been 'trained' for the role is quite radical. It will be interesting to see whether GRRM allows it to succeed ;)

That's an interesting point.  We're already seeing signs of of petulance with Young Griff, and his choice of a "Kingsguard" seems a bit questionable, at least to Connington.  

The problem with this experiment of Varys (if Varys and Illyrio are actually pulling a Pygmalion) is that in order for Young Griff to win the throne, he has to gain the support of a large amount of the commonfolk.  And to gain their support, they have to buy the fact that he is Rhaegar's son, someone with a "legitimate claim" to the throne.  And by all accounts that means, they also have to convince Young Griff that he is Rhaegar's son, and the Iron Throne is his birthright.  Which in turn starts to lead to Young Griff getting a sense of entitlement, which is the very thing that Varys was railing against when he was criticizing those who were handed the throne by birthright.

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31 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

If the guy is Illyrio's son then this could be motivation enough. One of them should also have some connection to or interest in Westeros to explain why they are invested in that continent rather their own home turf, but that could be essentially anything.

Maybe.  My biggest issue with this scenario is that it relies on Illyrio pretending that Young Griff isn't his son, and going to his grave presumably without Young Griff being aware that Illyrio is his father.  That's a tough pill for a father to swallow.  It's also interesting that we don't have any evidence that Illyrio has any children despite the fact that he's had at least two marriages.  It may very well be that Illyrio can't have children.  Which doesn't mean he cant' fall in love with a woman who may be carrying someone else's child.  And his motivation becomes putting his beloved Serra's son on the throne, even if she died before Young Griff was old enough to know her.

31 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

That's definitely nothing they ever tried. Even if Aegon were a Blackfyre descendant through the female line, he wouldn't be a Blackfyre - and they would never try to sell him as a Blackfyre considering the plan is to make him a Targaryen.

Not sure what it means to have a "female line of Blackfyre".  Presumably the Blackfyres were similar to other houses and they passed on their birth name to their sons.  While the daughters would have been married into other houses, and they and their descendants lose the Blackfyre birth name.  There are no maternal houses in Westeros or Essos, except, in a way one.  

"House Black Pearl" is a brothel which passes on title of the Black Pearl (consider it a family name) from mother to daughter, in an unbroken female line.  Perhaps the series only recognized maternal "House".

Illyrio's grin when he talks about the male Blackfyre line ending, leaves open the idea of a female Blackfyre line, but also makes me wonder if he's hiding a jape.  So I wonder if there is a brothel in Lys that is similar to the Black Pearl.  Where a title is passed down from mother to daughter, where a straight line can be drawn to a daughter of Daemon Blackfyre (or perhaps Daena the defiant), and this is the maternal Blackfyre line that Illyrio is referencing.

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On 10/1/2019 at 11:42 PM, Frey family reunion said:

Maybe.  My biggest issue with this scenario is that it relies on Illyrio pretending that Young Griff isn't his son, and going to his grave presumably without Young Griff being aware that Illyrio is his father.  That's a tough pill for a father to swallow.  It's also interesting that we don't have any evidence that Illyrio has any children despite the fact that he's had at least two marriages.  It may very well be that Illyrio can't have children.  Which doesn't mean he cant' fall in love with a woman who may be carrying someone else's child.  And his motivation becomes putting his beloved Serra's son on the throne, even if she died before Young Griff was old enough to know her.

I actually expect Illyrio to talk to Aegon that he is his father - behind closed doors, after Aegon sits (seemingly) secure on the Iron Throne. There is a lot of potential there in this story. Varys and Illyrio having a falling-out over Aegon should the lad fuck things up - Illyrio sticking to his son, and Varys abondoning 'the mad lad' for Dany and/or Jon. It could also be somewhat more subtle - Illyrio showering Aegon with gifts and favors and people catching on to their 'special connection' even if it is never made explicit.

I also think there is a reason why George never gave us that powerful with Cersei's children where somebody tells Joffrey, Tommen, or Myrcella to their faces that they are not who they think they are, that their uncle is actually their true father, etc. Stannis' letter is known at court, but how the children actually dealt with that knowledge and what they were told exactly is unclear.

Jaime planned to tell Tommen and Myrcella - and he still might - but if he does that's not happen in the near future considering where he is right now.

Illyrio has already declared he is going to rejoin the gang in KL, and that's likely going to happen for Aegon's coronation, and in his case this plot (a person finding out that he had been lied to about his true parentage and identity) has much more potential than with Cersei's children because Aegon would (likely) be a king in his own right by that point, a man whose beliefs and actions in reaction to such a revelation would actually matter (unlike, say, if Tommen or Myrcella were told who couldn't do anything anyway).

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Not sure what it means to have a "female line of Blackfyre".  Presumably the Blackfyres were similar to other houses and they passed on their birth name to their sons.  While the daughters would have been married into other houses, and they and their descendants lose the Blackfyre birth name.  There are no maternal houses in Westeros or Essos, except, in a way one.  

In Dorne ruling ladies give their names to their children, as might certain ruling ladies in Westeros (the Mormont girls, the Waynwood and Oakheart children all go by the names of their mother - on the other hand, Rhaenyra Targaryen's sons did not).

But I agree with you that a Blackfyre descendant through the female line wouldn't be a Blackfyre. He would bear the name of his father, like Harrold Hardyng (who is also an Arryn descendant through the female line and as such the heir presumptive to the Vale of Arryn).

Claims can go through women even if names usually don't. Cat was also suggesting that the Waynwood/Corbray/Templeton cousins they have in the Vale should be named Robb's heirs.

In that sense the Blackfyre angle certainly could explain why Varys/Illyrio would be interested in ruling Westeros if they had ties to them through their maternal ancestors.

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Illyrio's grin when he talks about the male Blackfyre line ending, leaves open the idea of a female Blackfyre line, but also makes me wonder if he's hiding a jape.  So I wonder if there is a brothel in Lys that is similar to the Black Pearl.  Where a title is passed down from mother to daughter, where a straight line can be drawn to a daughter of Daemon Blackfyre (or perhaps Daena the defiant), and this is the maternal Blackfyre line that Illyrio is referencing.

It is curious that he would reference the fact that the Blackfyres are extinct in the male line only - normally being extinct in the male line means a house is extinct, period. The Gardeners, Whents, Strongs, etc. are (likely) all extinct in the male line only (the Whents are still around in the female line through Hoster Tully's descendants by Minisa Whent - through the female line Cat, her children, Edmure, and Robert all have their own claims to Harrenhal). But if a king wants to attaint a house or only view a bloodline as 'being extinct' so that he can bestow the title on another house it seems to be enough that the direct male line is extinguished.

Pointing out that a house is only extinct in the male line seems to indicate that (1) you know there were/are female lines of that family, (2) that some of their descendants are still alive, and (3) that you might even know some of those people personally.

For someone like Illyrio - who as a Pentoshi might not really care all that much about feudal stuff - the Free Cities don't have 'lordships' and 'titles' people inherit; and if we take Lys as an example then we see how Lysandro Rogare's legitimate and illegitimate children inherited portions of his wealth and property - then it is noteworthy that Illyrio cared enough about the Blackfyre to stress they are only extinct in the male line.

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It's interesting that as of the end of ADwD (I'm not reading any 'Winds' material til it's released....) that Young Griff is taking control of his own destiny, same as Eliza, same as Pinocchio (another iteration of the Pygmalion myth). I think with the real-world Yorkist pretenders, the conspiracies behind them thought the pretender 'monarch' would be their puppet. I wouldn't b surprised if Varys & Illyrio assumed they would still be jerking the strings of 'Aegon VI' - which of course is the exact same assumption made by the 'kingmakers' behind Warbeck and Simnel. These conspirators KNEW that their pretenders were not of the blood royal. Their interest was a) to be the power behind the throne, and b) to benefit from royal patronage (offices, titles, lands, incomes etc that the crown could bestow). I think these are sufficient motives for Illyrio and Varys - in fact it would explain why they are so untroubled about switching between causes - Viserys, Daenerys, Aegon, whatever.... If you back every horse in the race, it's bound to be won by your horse....

 

 

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16 hours ago, Rufus Snow said:

It's interesting that as of the end of ADwD (I'm not reading any 'Winds' material til it's released....) that Young Griff is taking control of his own destiny, same as Eliza, same as Pinocchio (another iteration of the Pygmalion myth). I think with the real-world Yorkist pretenders, the conspiracies behind them thought the pretender 'monarch' would be their puppet. I wouldn't b surprised if Varys & Illyrio assumed they would still be jerking the strings of 'Aegon VI' - which of course is the exact same assumption made by the 'kingmakers' behind Warbeck and Simnel. These conspirators KNEW that their pretenders were not of the blood royal. Their interest was a) to be the power behind the throne, and b) to benefit from royal patronage (offices, titles, lands, incomes etc that the crown could bestow). I think these are sufficient motives for Illyrio and Varys - in fact it would explain why they are so untroubled about switching between causes - Viserys, Daenerys, Aegon, whatever.... If you back every horse in the race, it's bound to be won by your horse....

This could be Illyrio's motive - up to a point and in the sense that he expects to greatly profit from this enterprise. He doesn't seem to be the kind of guy who gets off on exercising power.

But with Varys it is more complex. If we take the Epilogue seriously then Aegon - or rather: what he is supposed to be, the perfect king - seems to his legacy, his gift to Westeros and the future generation, that is 'the children'.

I certainly think Varys is going to want to help Aegon to restore peace and prosperity to Westeros once he sits on the Iron Throne. But I don't think he is going to do that just so he can continue to exert power or hold more power than he held under Aerys II and the Baratheon kings.

Varys has an agenda and knows how power works, but he, too, is not Littlefinger who covets power for its own sake nor is he deterimed to cling to it at all costs.

I mean, freeing Tyrion and assisting/arranging the murder of Tywin was a huge gamble. He had to go underground after that, and he can only resurface if the Baratheon-Lannister regime is ousted for good. If power was really important to him his plans would likely revolve around his own aggrandizement - like Littlefinger's do - rather than around a specific pretender or a specific family of pretenders. The animal Varys and Illyrio are trying to ride to power is the dragon (red or black). They do not work with stags or lions. And that limits their options.

I also wonder whether Varys is naive enough to assume he can ever control a grown-up king. He served under Aerys II, Robert, Joffrey, and Tommen. He knows that power dynamics are naturally unstable in a monarchy, and that courtiers and advisers who are determined to dominate the king are eventually either ousted or killed. It would be odd if he had a blind spot in this regard when it came to himself and Aegon.

And since Aegon is already a man grown there is never going to be a regency government where people like Varys could technically exercise royal power for a time. Not to mention that if Varys is sincere about what Aegon is supposed to be then he cannot be a puppet. He must be a king who is going to rule himself or he is going to fail.

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On 10/1/2019 at 5:53 PM, Lord Varys said:

In that sense the Blackfyre angle certainly could explain why Varys/Illyrio would be interested in ruling Westeros if they had ties to them through their maternal ancestors

It’s not really a great motivation though, is it?   I mean, my mother’s mother’s father was Daemon Blackfyre who should have been the ruler of Westeros, so I’m going to take up his banner.  I mean I guess it could be, it just isn’t very compelling.  Especially since we have a much better motivation in being in the position to train someone to have your values and vision and then through chicanery drum up enough support to help him take the Iron Throne.  And then rule Westeros as you see fit through him being a proxy.

Now if your point is that Varys and/or Illyrio motivation to rule Westeros specifically is that they are descended from exiled Westerosis’, and they (like the Golden Company) just want to return “home”, than I guess I can see that.  Perhaps Varys is descended from Aerion and Illyrio is descended from some “maternal line” offshoot of Blackfyre.  I guess that could account for Moqorro’s vision of dragons both bright and dark.

After all there has to be a reason that GRRM has decided to give this much background on House Blackfyre.

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5 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

It’s not really a great motivation though, is it?   I mean, my mother’s mother’s father was Daemon Blackfyre who should have been the ruler of Westeros, so I’m going to take up his banner.  I mean I guess it could be, it just isn’t very compelling.  Especially since we have a much better motivation in being in the position to train someone to have your values and vision and then through chicanery drum up enough support to help him take the Iron Throne.  And then rule Westeros as you see fit through him being a proxy.

Oh, well, the Blackfyre/Targaryen ancestry angle would only explain the origin of their interest in Westeros, i. e. answer the question why Varys wanted to serve a mad king as Master of Whisperers in King's Landing rather than taking a safer job somewhere else - or continue to work with Illyrio in Pentos.

The way how Jaehaerys I learned of Rego Draz and chose to hire him could indicate that Aerys II - like Jaehaerys I - decided he wanted to hire that 'cockless wonder' and Varys just took a very tempting offer. But then - Aerys II wasn't Jaehaerys I, and Duskendale should have sealed his reputation as 'the Mad King'. Why anyone would want to step into the viper's nest that was his court I cannot imagine. A man as smart as Varys would only take such a risk, I assume, if he had an ulterior motive or an agenda of his own.

I doubt they ever had 'a Blackfyre restoration plan' considering that no Blackfyre pretender showed up during Robert's Rebellion. If Varys was indeed doing his best to feed the paranoia of the Mad King (and not just do his job and point out actual traitors) as both Selmy and Jaime believe (who may be mistaken about that) then he must have had a reason for that. Revenge for the death of cousin/uncle Maelys or whatever Blackfyre they were related to could explain that - but then, if they were giving a rat's ass about the Blackfyres and their cause then them working with Barristan Selmy of all people is weird. That guy actually slew Maelys the Monstrous, after all, so if they were about revenge and payback then Selmy should have never survived his visit with Illyrio Mopatis.

But if revenge played into Varys' time with Aerys II then it is very odd that they did not try to take advantage of the chaos and the civil war Aerys II's madness eventually caused. Where was the Golden Company during Robert's Rebellion? Where was Illyrio Mopatis if he was a Blackfyre descendant?

If we look on the Aegon plan as Varys lays it out in the Epilogue then Aegon is supposed to restore and create a lasting peace for 'the children'. It is not so much a power grab but a project to give Westeros stability and peace. Now, that plan doesn't fit well with a Varys who undermined and perhaps helped Aerys II and Rhaegar destroy themselves.

Which could mean that - if the idea that Varys undermined the Targaryens in the past is correct - the plan he and Illyrio had changed after the Sack. Varys himself brings up Princess Rhaenys at one point, and it might be he has scruples about what had happened back during the Rebellion. It might be that the Aegon plan was formed in response to the horrors of war Varys witnessed during the Rebellion.

If that was the case then this plan was only made after the Sack. And whatever he and Illyrio did before the Rebellion had little or nothing to do with the plan they later made with Myles Toyne and Jon Connington.

5 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

Now if your point is that Varys and/or Illyrio motivation to rule Westeros specifically is that they are descended from exiled Westerosis’, and they (like the Golden Company) just want to return “home”, than I guess I can see that.  Perhaps Varys is descended from Aerion and Illyrio is descended from some “maternal line” offshoot of Blackfyre.  I guess that could account for Moqorro’s vision of dragons both light and dark.

After all there has to be a reason that GRRM has decided to give this much background on House Blackfyre.

If Varys was descended from Aerion Brightflame - which I don't think is a likely theory - then it might actually be that he is the son of a bastard Aerion fathered during his exile in Lys. That could also help explain why Varys was born a slave in Lys - because he was the grandson of the slave whore Aerion impregnated.

The idea that he is descended from Aerion's son Maegor is not very likely while we don't even know whether Maegor lived to adulthood or had a chance to procreate.

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  • 3 months later...
On 10/3/2019 at 3:39 PM, Frey family reunion said:

It’s not really a great motivation though, is it?   I mean, my mother’s mother’s father was Daemon Blackfyre who should have been the ruler of Westeros, so I’m going to take up his banner.  I mean I guess it could be, it just isn’t very compelling.  Especially since we have a much better motivation in being in the position to train someone to have your values and vision and then through chicanery drum up enough support to help him take the Iron Throne.  And then rule Westeros as you see fit through him being a proxy.

Aegon Rivers ‘Bittersteel’ marries Daemon Blackfyre’s daughter. If they had a child with Aegon being obviously half Targaryen but keeping his name as Rivers could be classed as ‘The Female Blackfyre line’ and you would think people could follow a descendant?

But I don’t think fAegon, Varys and Illyrio is lol

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On 8/7/2019 at 12:17 PM, Lost Melnibonean said:

This thread was archived, but I would like to add something from Fire and Blood...

A Time of Testing, Fire and Blood

Compare that to what we know of Magister Illyrio Mopatis...

Tyrion II, Dance 5

Clearly, Illyrio was not just a poor bravo. 

He may be telling the truth.  It would not be unusual for an artists to find himself attracted to a comely young man and use the latter for inspiration.  He's not the only Bravo who seeks a Targaryen restoration.  There is a possible connection between Illyrio, the Sealord, Prince Viserys, Ser Willem, Varys, and the Martells.  There may be others involved.  As to his motives, aggrandizement.  The only thing a rich man lack is a noble title.  Whoever he plants on the Iron Throne will be sure to give him lands and a title.  Great Lord Illyrio of House Mopatis has a nice ring to it.  What motivated the Sealord and Varys is still up for speculation.  We do know what motivated Ser Willem and the Martells.  They simply want to restore normalcy, or what they saw as normalcy, the rightful family on the throne.  

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On 1/19/2020 at 3:15 PM, CassDarry said:

Aegon Rivers ‘Bittersteel’ marries Daemon Blackfyre’s daughter. If they had a child with Aegon being obviously half Targaryen but keeping his name as Rivers could be classed as ‘The Female Blackfyre line’ and you would think people could follow a descendant?

But I don’t think fAegon, Varys and Illyrio is lol

IIRC the theory that Aegon, and/or Illyrio, and/or Varys are descended from Aegor and Calla was discredited, but not entirely dispelled, when The George indicated in an interview that he was not sure whether there were any such descendants. @Lord Varys would like remember whether this is accurate. 

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25 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

IIRC the theory that Aegon, and/or Illyrio, and/or Varys are descended from Aegor and Calla was discredited, but not entirely dispelled, when The George indicated in an interview that he was not sure whether there were any such descendants. @Lord Varys would like remember whether this is accurate. 

George apparently said that Bittersteel didn't have any children (I think Ashaya/Aziz of HoW asked that particular question once). Which makes this very likely, but knowing George he might take this as a cue to think ... wait a minute, perhaps I can make things more complex/less obvious by giving Bittersteel some daughters. If this turns out to be the case it wasn't something that was planned the entire time, though.

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