NFL 2019 Preseason: Hard Knockin on Gruden's Door

[Jace, Extat]

27 minutes ago, Cas Stark said:

[Doctor] Irsay said on SiriusXM NFL Radio that Luck is dealing with an issue to a “small little bone.”

 

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2019/08/13/jim-irsay-andrew-luck-has-bone-injury/

Ahh, the dreaded 'small little bone' contusion... tough break(?)

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

Reports are that Dak is asking for as high as $40m per year. If true, that's insane and he's totally delusional. 

[briantw]

4 hours ago, Cas Stark said:

[Doctor] Irsay said on SiriusXM NFL Radio that Luck is dealing with an issue to a “small little bone.”

 

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2019/08/13/jim-irsay-andrew-luck-has-bone-injury/

Is that code for impotence? 

[briantw]

[Maithanet]

16 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

Reports are that Dak is asking for as high as $40m per year. If true, that's insane and he's totally delusional. 

Those "reports" are almost assuredly leaks from the Cowboys in an effort to make Dak look bad and improve their leverage.  It's pretty standard practice. 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

1 hour ago, Maithanet said:

Those "reports" are almost assuredly leaks from the Cowboys in an effort to make Dak look bad and improve their leverage.  It's pretty standard practice. 

I mean, sure, but it’s still nuts for Dak to be asking for anything near that. He’s at best one of the better average QBs. I’d absolutely trade him before thinking of giving him anywhere near that amount.

[Maithanet]

1 minute ago, Tywin et al. said:

I mean, sure, but it’s still nuts for Dak to be asking for anything near that. He’s at best one of the better average QBs. I’d absolutely trade him before thinking of giving him anywhere near that amount.

Given that we know it was leaked as a negotiating ploy, I consider that nothing but a lie.  $40 million was just the number they picked to make Dak look bad. 

Dak is going to get something similar to what Wentz got, which is $32 million a year.  Dak's stats and availability compare favorably with Wentz, although a lot of people (including myself) see Wentz as the better long term prospect.  Given general salary cap inflation, it'll probably be a shade higher, but definitely less than the top of the market (Wilson at $35 million). 

[Jace, Extat]

2 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

I mean, sure, but it’s still nuts for Dak to be asking for anything near that. He’s at best one of the better average QBs. I’d absolutely trade him before thinking of giving him anywhere near that amount.

I thought your daddy was like an Art of the Deal guy? Dak can ask for $40 mil a year because he'd get it if he hit the open market and the Cowboys have him, Zeke, and Amari Cooper to pay. The Cowboys have really put themselves in a bad place here because they can maintain Zeke's rights through the end of next season with his fifth-year option, but Cooper and Dak are free agents and the Cowboys only have one franchise tag.

So there's nothing at all nuts about Dak demanding that money as an opening point before he settles in at over $32 million a year.

Now, the Cowboys obviously shouldn't pay that amount to Dak but they probably will because he's so averagely good that he made Scott Linehan's shitty offense almost seem viable.

I too am displeased by the QB market for mediocre-to-average players compared to what the rest of the players are getting but there's nothing unusual in Dak's position.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

42 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

Given that we know it was leaked as a negotiating ploy, I consider that nothing but a lie.  $40 million was just the number they picked to make Dak look bad. 

Dak is going to get something similar to what Wentz got, which is $32 million a year.  Dak's stats and availability compare favorably with Wentz, although a lot of people (including myself) see Wentz as the better long term prospect.  Given general salary cap inflation, it'll probably be a shade higher, but definitely less than the top of the market (Wilson at $35 million). 

Over the last two years, Dak has thrown for 44 TDs, 21 Ints, 7,200 yards and has a 65% completion percentage.  It’s worth noting though that his completion percentage drops to 49% when eke is not in the game. I don’t think that compares to Wentz, who over the same period dropped 54 TDs, 14 Ints, 6,374 yards and a 65% completion rate while playing in eight fewer games. Wentz has the potential to be elite. Dak doesn’t, and paying him like he can be is a giant mistake.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

Westeros Pick'em league is about to get up and running again. PM your yahoo email if you want to join. It's open to all so long as you play each week (it literally takes 5 minutes to pick). There will be some potential changes this year, the biggest one is a vote to possible change to picking against the spread rather than using confidence points. It will all be set up by the end of the month. Feel free to join and challenge others to do the same.

[dbunting]

On 8/14/2019 at 12:47 PM, Tywin et al. said:

Over the last two years, Dak has thrown for 44 TDs, 21 Ints, 7,200 yards and has a 65% completion percentage.  It’s worth noting though that his completion percentage drops to 49% when eke is not in the game. I don’t think that compares to Wentz, who over the same period dropped 54 TDs, 14 Ints, 6,374 yards and a 65% completion rate while playing in eight fewer games. Wentz has the potential to be elite. Dak doesn’t, and paying him like he can be is a giant mistake.

They came in the league together so why are you only talking last two years, lets compare all three.

Wentz  70 pass td, 28 INT, 10,152 pass yards, 542 rush yards, 2 rush tds.

Prescott   67 pass td, 25 INT, 10876 pass yards, 944 rush yards, 18 rush tds.

IDK, but looks pretty damn comparable to me, about the same yardage, but Dak has accounted for 85 tds and Carson 72, pretty big difference there. And do not say, but if Wentz played all 16 games he could of, would of... nope. The fact that he has already missed 8 games due to injury is a bad sign. He could go the next 10 years and never miss another game, who knows. All we have is whats is in front of us. Dak puts up those comparable stats on a team that prioritizes the run, keep that in mind. 

Now do I want him making north of 32 mill a year, hell no, but the market says he deserves it.  Wentz will put up better stats in the long run, but we are talking what we have in front of us right now.

[Nictarion]

Damn, former Bengal RB Cedric Benson died in a motorcycle crash. He was only 36. Very sad. 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

On 8/16/2019 at 6:00 PM, dbunting said:

They came in the league together so why are you only talking last two years, lets compare all three.

Wentz  70 pass td, 28 INT, 10,152 pass yards, 542 rush yards, 2 rush tds.

Prescott   67 pass td, 25 INT, 10876 pass yards, 944 rush yards, 18 rush tds.

IDK, but looks pretty damn comparable to me, about the same yardage, but Dak has accounted for 85 tds and Carson 72, pretty big difference there. And do not say, but if Wentz played all 16 games he could of, would of... nope. The fact that he has already missed 8 games due to injury is a bad sign. He could go the next 10 years and never miss another game, who knows. All we have is whats is in front of us. Dak puts up those comparable stats on a team that prioritizes the run, keep that in mind. 

Now do I want him making north of 32 mill a year, hell no, but the market says he deserves it.  Wentz will put up better stats in the long run, but we are talking what we have in front of us right now.

I clipped the first year because the situations were so different. The Eagles weren't terrible, but the situation wasn't so ideal like the Cowboys was. Regarding the stats, I think Dak puts up a lot of empty ones that any decent QB could do behind that line. I think he would struggle behind an average one because he doesn't make quick decisions and he's so risk adverse. And while the Cowboys are run heavy team, I see clip after clip of Dak just checking down when guys are wide open down field. That leads me to believe that he's probably already fully formed, and that result is an above average game manager. Now, you can certainly win with that, but not when the QB is going to eat up close to 20% of the salary cap. OTOH, Wentz still has room to grow into a legit top five QB. That's why you pay him. I can't foresee Dak having anywhere near that high of a ceiling. 

[dbunting]

7 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

I clipped the first year because the situations were so different. The Eagles weren't terrible, but the situation wasn't so ideal like the Cowboys was. Regarding the stats, I think Dak puts up a lot of empty ones that any decent QB could do behind that line. I think he would struggle behind an average one because he doesn't make quick decisions and he's so risk adverse. And while the Cowboys are run heavy team, I see clip after clip of Dak just checking down when guys are wide open down field. That leads me to believe that he's probably already fully formed, and that result is an above average game manager. Now, you can certainly win with that, but not when the QB is going to eat up close to 20% of the salary cap. OTOH, Wentz still has room to grow into a legit top five QB. That's why you pay him. I can't foresee Dak having anywhere near that high of a ceiling. 

I think we have very different views of what "ideal situations" are. Philly was in the SB the next year, so that seems a lot more ideal to me. And to say Dallas' o-line was good the last year is a very untrue statement. We had rookies and back ups starting across most of the line, Smith missed significant time and of course Fredrick missed the entire season, so it was a patch work line most of the year.

All in all I agree that Wentz is more talented physically, no argument there. I also wish they didn't have to pay Dak so much, but the market says they have to. I mean what is the option? It's not like they can sign a FA QB who would be better. The draft is a crap shoot, so what is left, trade for a QB that the team he is on doesn't want?

[Jace, Extat]

I think it's worth saying in Daks defense that while he may have a simpler job he's also been hamstrung by shit playcalling while Wentz gets to put all his skills to use under a creative playcaller. 

Not coming down on a side, just sayin'.

[Maithanet]

7 hours ago, dbunting said:

I think we have very different views of what "ideal situations" are. Philly was in the SB the next year, so that seems a lot more ideal to me. And to say Dallas' o-line was good the last year is a very untrue statement. We had rookies and back ups starting across most of the line, Smith missed significant time and of course Fredrick missed the entire season, so it was a patch work line most of the year.

The Eagles O line is no joke and on the whole having a team capable of winning the SB with a backup qb is pretty damn nice.  If one quarterback is in an "ideal" spot, it is Wentz. 

But nonetheless, I firmly in the camp that paying Dak $32 million is a mistake, and will trap the Cowboys on the mediocrity treadmill.  I agree that $32 million is essentially the going rate for a starting qb, but I think this is a case where the market is misallocated, and teams would do better to fight it.  If you have a great qb like Wilson or Mahomes or Rodgers, sure - pay him $35 million a year.  But if you need to beat those guys with Dak Prescott as your quarterback, then you need to have more talent elsewhere than $3 million in savings can buy you.  You'd do better to keep your talented guys on the rest of your roster and try to win with either a guy on a rookie deal or a replacement level backup that you don't expect much of. 

I understand that GMs are trying to keep their job, and what I'm proposing is a high risk-high reward approach that has a much higher chance of blowing up than of winning the SB.  But there's only one SB winner every year, you have to take some risks if you want to get there. 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

8 hours ago, dbunting said:

I think we have very different views of what "ideal situations" are. Philly was in the SB the next year, so that seems a lot more ideal to me. And to say Dallas' o-line was good the last year is a very untrue statement. We had rookies and back ups starting across most of the line, Smith missed significant time and of course Fredrick missed the entire season, so it was a patch work line most of the year.

All in all I agree that Wentz is more talented physically, no argument there. I also wish they didn't have to pay Dak so much, but the market says they have to. I mean what is the option? It's not like they can sign a FA QB who would be better. The draft is a crap shoot, so what is left, trade for a QB that the team he is on doesn't want?

Which is why I didn’t include their rookie years. Dak walked into a much better situation in year one, but by year two they balanced out, and once they did Wentz was clearly the better player. And likewise Philly’s line was beat up last year. They’re healthy again and that’s why the Eagles are a trendy SB pick.

As to what to do? Trade Dak for a haul a sign Kap. Duh. 

I’ll reiterate, there are two stats that really worry me here. First, Wentz has thrown for more TDs despite playing almost a season less than Dak. That’s pretty huge for guys entering just their fourth seasons. It also implies that his upside is so much higher. And secondly, Daks numbers are bad when Zeke isn’t in the game. He’s a below 50% passer when he doesn’t have him. Likewise, he wasn’t very good until Cooper got there last year. If Dak was smart, he'd want his two weapons to get paid so that he looks good and pretends like he commands that kind of contract.  

[briantw]

55 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

The Eagles O line is no joke and on the whole having a team capable of winning the SB with a backup qb is pretty damn nice.  If one quarterback is in an "ideal" spot, it is Wentz. 

But nonetheless, I firmly in the camp that paying Dak $32 million is a mistake, and will trap the Cowboys on the mediocrity treadmill.  I agree that $32 million is essentially the going rate for a starting qb, but I think this is a case where the market is misallocated, and teams would do better to fight it.  If you have a great qb like Wilson or Mahomes or Rodgers, sure - pay him $35 million a year.  But if you need to beat those guys with Dak Prescott as your quarterback, then you need to have more talent elsewhere than $3 million in savings can buy you.  You'd do better to keep your talented guys on the rest of your roster and try to win with either a guy on a rookie deal or a replacement level backup that you don't expect much of. 

I understand that GMs are trying to keep their job, and what I'm proposing is a high risk-high reward approach that has a much higher chance of blowing up than of winning the SB.  But there's only one SB winner every year, you have to take some risks if you want to get there. 

The issue is supply and demand.  There are 32 NFL starting QB jobs but only about 20-25 decent or better QBs.  When you've got one, you hesitate to let them go because the alternative can be years of trying to find another guy that good, even if you've only got a mid-first QB.

That's not to say I think paying Dak is a good idea.  It's not.  He's good but not great, and a 30+ million deal will come back to bite the Cowboys.  Just tough to see them not ultimately doing it, because there's no guarantee they'll be able to find a guy to replace Dak, and that's terrifying if you're an NFL GM.

[Maithanet]

18 minutes ago, briantw said:

The issue is supply and demand.  There are 32 NFL starting QB jobs but only about 20-25 decent or better QBs.  When you've got one, you hesitate to let them go because the alternative can be years of trying to find another guy that good, even if you've only got a mid-first QB.

I understand that.  But think about the past decade of Super Bowls.  Six of them went to great quarterbacks playing well (Rodgers, Wilson, Brees, and Brady X3).  But the other four were talented teams that allowed mediocre quarterbacks to look great for a playoff run (E. Manning, Flacco, Foles, and the ghost of Peyton Manning).  Actually in the case of Peyton Manning he still looked like hot garbage, but they won anyway.  Regardless, there are pretty clearly two paths to winning the Super Bowl.  1) Have a top 5 quarterback or 2) Have a team talented enough to overwhelm teams with top 5 quarterbacks. 

If you pay Dak Prescott $32 million, you are never going to get path #1, and the chances of reaching path #2 are greatly diminished unless you're REALLY lucky in the draft.  Now, plenty of GMs are just hoping to hold onto their seven figure a year job, and who can blame them?  If that's the case, avoiding going 3-13 is really important and Prescott more or less guarantees you that.  But if your goal is to be a contender to actually win it all, then this is a very bad move.

[DireWolfSpirit]

Carli Lloyd is one helluva an athlete.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/27428652/carli-lloyd-drills-55-yard-fg-eagles-practice