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Martell Spy

U.S. Politics: Moscow Mitch

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Back to my well, but I really don't know who can put things in better perspective:

 

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23 minutes ago, davos said:

 

The reality is that the Fed doesn't have that much room, especially compared with past recessions, to cut rates in an attempt to hold off or minimize an economic downturn.  rates were kept artificially low after the great recession to try to help sustain a recovery that took a long time to gather any serious momentum.    They have only been raised in the last few years, and then not much, at least by historical standards.  Reality is that we are in an awful spot to confront a major downturn.  The Fed doesn't have much room to drop interest rates.  Maybe throw out some more QE to try to keep investment going but I doubt the utility of such an approach. The Federal deficit is ballooned under Trump, which would give us little room for a Keynesian type response, even if we had a congress that was willing to dump a vast amount of money into the economy. Which we don't.   So if the bottom drops out, there is no parachute.  Its going to drop. Add to this that a larger portion of the population is a bad personal position to handle things going bad.  Almost all the gains of the recovery went to those at the very top of the economic pyramid.  A government that both can't and won't act, a working population that has been stripped both of its own resources and a safety net.  It could get really ugly, really fast.  And once things start to really slide, ending the idiotic trade war may not be enough to halt things.   If recession hits soon, we are in for one shit-storm of a ride.

Add to that, a bad economy would end any chance of Trump winning a even vaguely legitimate election.  Which means he could turn to the nastiest campaign tactics imaginable, outright political violence, or just try a coup,

 

I entirely agree, and you articulated the point I was trying to make before: there's little to protect us in case of a recession. Trump's desire to have an extremely hot economy is eating up what would normally be there to try and ease a recession. It's also important that you highlighted people's individual situations. I've seen various statistics, but my understanding is that a majority of Americans can't handle an unexpected $500 bill and that a super majority (I think like 70%) live paycheck to paycheck. If a bad recession hits, we're boned. 

Also, part of what I was discussing is not that a recession would hit before the election, but shortly after, and you can bet Trump will try to further exhaust any tools to balloon the economy in the next 15 months. That's what has me worried, 

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Quote

Also, part of what I was discussing is not that a recession would hit before the election, but shortly after, and you can bet Trump will try to further exhaust any tools to balloon the economy in the next 15 months. That's what has me worried

Part of what I was trying to say is that he has very little tools left  to try to keep things going.  If the situation is such that a recession will start in say, the next 3 months, there simply is not the tools available to hold one back that long.  If we were having this conversation a year from now, it would be difficult.  15 months out, there would be no way for him to hold off a recession.  Minimize one, possibly, but that would actually require a congress willing to spend money and a president who actually either understood how an economy worked or was willing to listen to those who do.  As none of these conditions are met, if a recession is set to start soon, Trump is going to have to face it as part of his reelection efforts.

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22 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

it’s not possible for Wisconsinites to drink quality beer and eat high end cheese

#Facts

wait, is this a hit against the high Life?

I friggin love the High Life. There is no reason to disparage the High Life.  

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32 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

That’s a lie, Maith. It’s not possible for me to swim in a river of lava, it’s not possible for Wisconsinites to drink quality beer and eat high end cheese, and it’s not possible for the Washington Racial Slurs to have a decent, competent owner.

#Facts

As a Wisconsinite, born and raised an hour west of Green Bay and sitting at my computer right now half an hour west of Madison, I can tell you flat out that is not true.  I frequently eat high end cheese and drink quality beer.  And know many people from this state that do as well.   I'm sitting right now within a hour driving distance of at least a dozen world class cheese makers and 5 or 6 top flight breweries.  You can say a lot of bad things about this state, but we know our beer and our cheese as well or better than anyone in the world.  Yeah, a lot of people here drink shitty beer and eat crappy cheese.  That's mostly because its cheaper.  We know what's good. We make what's good. We consume a lot of what's good.   

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40 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

I entirely agree, and you articulated the point I was trying to make before: there's little to protect us in case of a recession. Trump's desire to have an extremely hot economy is eating up what would normally be there to try and ease a recession. It's also important that you highlighted people's individual situations. I've seen various statistics, but my understanding is that a majority of Americans can't handle an unexpected $500 bill and that a super majority (I think like 70%) live paycheck to paycheck. If a bad recession hits, we're boned. 

Also, part of what I was discussing is not that a recession would hit before the election, but shortly after, and you can bet Trump will try to further exhaust any tools to balloon the economy in the next 15 months. That's what has me worried, 

This is even more true now that the administration is proposing drug-testing for people applying for unemployment benefits. If it goes through it will bar a lot of people from receiving unemployment benefits during a recession, especially since so many states have passed medical marijuana laws. Since marijuana is still illegal at the federal level, however, tgat means a lot of people following their state laws will end up getting stiffed on unemployment during a downtown if this rule goes through.

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22 minutes ago, The Great Unwashed said:

This is even more true now that the administration is proposing drug-testing for people applying for unemployment benefits. If it goes through it will bar a lot of people from receiving unemployment benefits during a recession, especially since so many states have passed medical marijuana laws. Since marijuana is still illegal at the federal level, however, tgat means a lot of people following their state laws will end up getting stiffed on unemployment during a downtown if this rule goes through.

Wtf that's such a waste of money too

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Pelosi refers to McConnell as 'Moscow Mitch'

https://thehill.com/homenews/house/457419-pelosi-refers-to-mcconnell-as-moscow-mitch

Quote

 

Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) on Wednesday called Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) "Moscow Mitch" while attacking him for blocking House Democrats' legislation, including election security measures.

Pelosi invoked the "Moscow Mitch" moniker while referring to McConnell's embrace of his portrayal as the "Grim Reaper" blocking House Democrats' progressive policies from moving forward in the Senate.

"We all want to invest in building our democracy and saving it from any enemies, foreign and domestic," Pelosi said in remarks before the Illinois Democratic County Chairs' Association in Springfield, Ill., as she discussed House Democrats' overall agenda.

“We’ve sent our legislation to the Senate. Moscow Mitch says that he is the Grim Reaper. Imagine describing yourself as the Grim Reaper, that he’s going to bury all this legislation," Pelosi said. "Well, we have news for him. All this legislation is alive and well in the general public."

 

 

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2 hours ago, Bonnot OG said:

I see a trump immigration official is going full white supremacist with the immigrants from Europe bullshit and Steve King defended rape. 

 

Also saw that Portland’s spineless mayor was on Fox News and his shitbag police department is gonna be violently cracking down on counter protests to the fascist rally in PDX / Portland this Saturday, which I’m going to be at. What a lovely country this is and a lovely system we have propping up these shit people

yeah, this one feels much more likely to escalate to spectacular violence. stay safe and make sure you are not caught out alone

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19 minutes ago, larrytheimp said:

Wtf that's such a waste of money too

Aye, there's another issue with the proposed policy. Either you require applicants to pay the cost up front - kind of a shitty thing to do when someone lost their job, or states reduce benefits to pay for the drug-testing (most likely scenario imo), or states raise UI taxes on businesses to pay for it (will not happen). It's just a flat out stupid policy designed to help employers (UI tax rates increase for a business as more of its former employees claim benefits, so imposing additional barriers to claim benefits keeps taxes down for businesses) while shafting workers.

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44 minutes ago, a good and nice guy said:

yeah, this one feels much more likely to escalate to spectacular violence. stay safe and make sure you are not caught out alone

Yea. I can see it turning into a Charlottesville but with the cops helping the fascists again. Thanks. Yea I’m also making sure I only have a small bit of cash on my to avoid not getting it back if I get arrested since PPB takes your money and gives you some pain in the ass debit card that is pointless to even try to use. Joey Biggs is already in PDX. Should’ve been met and drove out of the city by now, but I bet the cops are watching him in case that happens.

We’re fucked.

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Posted (edited)
9 hours ago, Martell Spy said:

Ken Cuccinelli: Statue Of Liberty Poem About ‘People Coming From Europe’
Trump’s citizenship and immigration chief followed up his earlier comments about the famous Emma Lazarus poem with a racist clarification.

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/ken-cuccinelli-statue-liberty-poem-about-europe_n_5d535ed3e4b05fa9df0671ee

Guys, come on he’s not racist-he just thinks that non-white people who are uber poor are far less deserving the chance at entry to America than all those equally poor Whites let in from Europe in the past. 

Honestly, I’m surprised he didn’t just literally just say white instead of “from Europe” and leave it there. 

Edited by Varysblackfyre321

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Posted (edited)

For months I’ve been watching CNBC report bad economic news around the world. And watched American wise men talk about how strong the US economy was and while a recession is inevitable it wasn’t going to happen for another 20 or 24 months.

The PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) went through the floor in Germany months ago. I saw Trump sneer that Germany was in bad shape but the US was just fine. In the meantime the US PMI has dropped into recession territory.

I’ve watched analysts say the tariffs on China wasn’t having much of an impact on the US at all, that the Chinese were lowering prices and US companies have been reading the writing on the wall for 18 months and have moved many factories out of China. Not to the US, btw, but to other mainly Asian countries. Wait until Trump starts putting tariffs on Vietnam for having a trade surplus.

I’ve watched bond prices slip and then recover, repeated times.

Carl Icahn was interviewed last week and said lowering interest rates wasn’t going to fix things. When India and whoever else it was lowered rates last week in response to the Fed, Trump announced the US should immediately lower rates by even more. Cuz India sets US interest rates, amirite? Interest rates are negative for commercial clients across Europe (meaning you have to pay the bank to park money) when is that coming to North America?

Trump did affect US stock markets for the first year, there’s no doubt about it. But just after he bragged last January or February about the Dow setting a record, the markets had a sharp drop. They recovered, then had more drops, then recovered. One day they will drop and need months and months to recover.

The volatility will continue until trade issues are ironed out, and that may take a long, long time. According to Trump, every damn country in the whole world takes advantage of the US and so every country in the world has to be punished. As long as the US has the attitude that it can smash and bully it’s trading partners I don’t see that happening soon. Many countries do agree that China was doing things it shouldn't do and agreed with Trump’s rhetoric but the methods being used are crude. And the idea that a country with 4.4% of the world’s population but uses up 20 or 25% of the world’s output got to that position by being a patsy on trade is just wrong.

Add to that the fact that governments around the world took on huge debt to get out of the 2008 financial crisis. Just wait and see what happens when Italy defaults on it’s debt.

 

Edited by Fragile Bird

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3 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

That’s a lie, Maith. It’s not possible for me to swim in a river of lava, it’s not possible for Wisconsinites to drink quality beer and eat high end cheese, and it’s not possible for the Washington Racial Slurs to have a decent, competent owner.

#Facts

Whoa there...I live in Wisconsin now and I drink the highest quality beer and scarf nothing but the finest cheese...unless it's processed american singles melted all over the top if my morning eggs...

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21 minutes ago, Jaxom 1974 said:

unless it's processed american singles melted all over the top if my morning eggs...

You're doing it wrong.

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3 hours ago, davos said:

As a Wisconsinite, born and raised an hour west of Green Bay and sitting at my computer right now half an hour west of Madison, I can tell you flat out that is not true.  I frequently eat high end cheese and drink quality beer.  And know many people from this state that do as well.   I'm sitting right now within a hour driving distance of at least a dozen world class cheese makers and 5 or 6 top flight breweries.  You can say a lot of bad things about this state, but we know our beer and our cheese as well or better than anyone in the world.  Yeah, a lot of people here drink shitty beer and eat crappy cheese.  That's mostly because its cheaper.  We know what's good. We make what's good. We consume a lot of what's good.   

Cheaper stuff, beer or cheese, is for the tourists!  I drive through Miller Valley every day, I see them...

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13 minutes ago, The Great Unwashed said:

You're doing it wrong.

I don't think so. 'Murica!

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Posted (edited)

Somone pointed out in that thread, if ICE agents act like that with tons of cameras and the real police around, can you imagine how immigrants are being treated when no one's watching?

 

Edited by Bonnot OG

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4 hours ago, Bonnot OG said:

Yea. I can see it turning into a Charlottesville but with the cops helping the fascists again. Thanks. Yea I’m also making sure I only have a small bit of cash on my to avoid not getting it back if I get arrested since PPB takes your money and gives you some pain in the ass debit card that is pointless to even try to use. Joey Biggs is already in PDX. Should’ve been met and drove out of the city by now, but I bet the cops are watching him in case that happens.

We’re fucked.

lifelong denizen of Alaska here, grew up on a homestead that fronted a lake used by spawning salmon, had a many friends and relatives who were fishermen.  

 

Salmon die shortly after they spawn.  Used to go down to the lake about this time of year, maybe a little later, and there'd be dozens of dead fish bobbing in the shallows.  Dogs would fetch them and carry their carcasses all over the yard, making quite the mess.  

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