What happens if Euron sacks Oldtown?

[Tyrion1991]

1 minute ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

All that would make for wonderful tension, which is the lifeblood of storytelling, no? 

 

They can talk about it. But the pendulum will likely swing to no. Especially if people learn Dany has the baggage of a few million Dothraki and freed slaves she’s considering bringing into Westeros.

[Lost Melnibonean]

8 hours ago, LynnS said:

This depends on what happens when Victarion reaches Mereen.  Dany is off with Drogon at Vaes Dothrak and the other two dragons are loose.  Not sure what Moqorro is up to with Victarion and the dragonbinder horn.  I'm expecting one dragon to be captured and possibly one dragon to be killed to even the odds.

I could see Rhaegal getting mixed up with that horn for the time being, but I got a silver stag says Tyrion will help Brown Ben become a dragon lord. 

[Tyrion1991]

3 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

All that would make for wonderful tension, which is the lifeblood of storytelling, no? 

 

They can talk about it. But the pendulum will likely swing to no. Especially if people learn Dany has the baggage of a few million Dothraki and freed slaves she’s considering bringing into Westeros.

[McGuv19]

On 8/12/2019 at 6:29 PM, Loose Bolt said:

How many men Hightowers can call at arms? Or there is a chance that defenders of Oldtown would have more men than Euron. So it is possible that Euron just wants to keep most of his enemies  in there and so his raids elsewhere would have greater chances to be successful. 

I think in Sam’s final AFFC chapter it is mentioned that the Hightowers can field two or three times as many men as Highgarden’s other bannermen. I would guess at least 5,000-6,000, probably more if they took everyone they could and had enough time. It is mentioned that Garth ‘Greysteel’ Hightower is training men but depending on how long they have been training and raising men for they might not have many. However they also have the actual City Watch of Oldtown (judging from King’s Landing may be about 1,500 men during peacetime, perhaps as many as 3,000 now with the threat of Euron).

I would say the Hightowers could have the maximum number of ~13,000 men. 3,000-5,000 from sworn houses (Beesbury, Bulwer, Costayne, Cuy, Mullendore), 3,000 in City Watch, and 6,000 from Oldtown and Hightower lands.

The numbers for their sworn houses are not that precise as I have no information on their militaries, but all five are lordly and all are able to support or were able to support 1-2 sons as knights, maybe more.

As for the ironborn there is a section in a topic here which has their numbers at 400 ships and 15,000 fighting men. Considering that Victarion has left for Meereen with the ~100 warships of the Iron Fleet and due to the Iron Fleet ships most likely being among the largest and best equipped of the ironborn this leaves Euron with 300 ships and about 10,000-11,000 men at most. Furthermore, assuming Euron stationed men and ships back at the Iron Islands to guard them from Mallister’s ships and Lannister ships at Lannisport and Fair Isle, assuming the Lannister fleet was rebuilt after Greyjoy’s Rebellion. Euron may have left as few as 25 ships at the Iron Islands, but perhaps as many as 50, which would correspond to just under 950 men for 25 ships or 1850 men for 50. This leaves Euron with 8,150-10,050 men and 250-275 ships.

Euron also has ships left at the Shields (they are raiding up the Mander) and presumably on the small Redwyne islands he captures. Euron would be leaving 25-50 ships for this as well. This would make 200-250 ships and 7500-9375 men. Except the ironborn also capture ships from the Shields, and most likely from their Redwyne rocks too. I would put their gains at 25-50 ships. The final tally is 225-300 ships and 8450-11250 men, assuming they have the men to crew their captured ships. 

I doubt Euron has enough numbers to simply attack Oldtown, but if he uses some sorcery or magic he may well do it. Also, if the Hightowers give Euron a naval battle he will definitely beat them.

 

 

[Platypus Rex]

On 8/11/2019 at 7:05 PM, Tyrion1991 said:

Am I right in thinking Euron is going to just devastate the city. 

I vote "No".  Euron will not sack Oldtown.  Hell, he was not even all that interested in the Shields, and expects them to be retaken.  

On 8/12/2019 at 4:05 PM, miyuki said:

Will the Euron chapter in Oldtown be told by Samwell's POV or Aeron's?

There will be no Euron chapter in Oldtown.  Euron is not taking Aeron to Oldtown.

[Davjos]

20 hours ago, McGuv19 said:

I think in Sam’s final AFFC chapter it is mentioned that the Hightowers can field two or three times as many men as Highgarden’s other bannermen. I would guess at least 5,000-6,000, probably more if they took everyone they could and had enough time. It is mentioned that Garth ‘Greysteel’ Hightower is training men but depending on how long they have been training and raising men for they might not have many. However they also have the actual City Watch of Oldtown (judging from King’s Landing may be about 1,500 men during peacetime, perhaps as many as 3,000 now with the threat of Euron).

I would say the Hightowers could have the maximum number of ~13,000 men. 3,000-5,000 from sworn houses (Beesbury, Bulwer, Costayne, Cuy, Mullendore), 3,000 in City Watch, and 6,000 from Oldtown and Hightower lands.

The numbers for their sworn houses are not that precise as I have no information on their militaries, but all five are lordly and all are able to support or were able to support 1-2 sons as knights, maybe more.

As for the ironborn there is a section in a topic here which has their numbers at 400 ships and 15,000 fighting men. Considering that Victarion has left for Meereen with the ~100 warships of the Iron Fleet and due to the Iron Fleet ships most likely being among the largest and best equipped of the ironborn this leaves Euron with 300 ships and about 10,000-11,000 men at most. Furthermore, assuming Euron stationed men and ships back at the Iron Islands to guard them from Mallister’s ships and Lannister ships at Lannisport and Fair Isle, assuming the Lannister fleet was rebuilt after Greyjoy’s Rebellion. Euron may have left as few as 25 ships at the Iron Islands, but perhaps as many as 50, which would correspond to just under 950 men for 25 ships or 1850 men for 50. This leaves Euron with 8,150-10,050 men and 250-275 ships.

Euron also has ships left at the Shields (they are raiding up the Mander) and presumably on the small Redwyne islands he captures. Euron would be leaving 25-50 ships for this as well. This would make 200-250 ships and 7500-9375 men. Except the ironborn also capture ships from the Shields, and most likely from their Redwyne rocks too. I would put their gains at 25-50 ships. The final tally is 225-300 ships and 8450-11250 men, assuming they have the men to crew their captured ships. 

I doubt Euron has enough numbers to simply attack Oldtown, but if he uses some sorcery or magic he may well do it. Also, if the Hightowers give Euron a naval battle he will definitely beat them.

 

 

I think you’re underestimating the base strength of House Hightower, especially when Oldtown is under attack. They are the second or third richest house in Westeros. Perhaps the numbers for the trained combatants are a fair estimation, although I expect them to be able to field  more men with the preparation time they have had. However, they should be able to put easy to use weapons such as crossbows or spear or even simple stones to throw in the hands of tens of thousands of citizens.

Therefore I am of the opinion Euron cannot take Oldtown without the use of magic. But Leyton Hightower and his Maid have been locked in the tower for over a decade ‘consulting books of spells’. With the strengthening of magic due to the birth of dragons, they must have magic to some extent to rival Euron. And they have the scientific centre of the world at their fingertips. 

 

I would be really disappointed if Oldtown falls. The Hightowers are one of my favourite houses due to their mystery, possibility due to the unknown and sympathetic characters as Breakwind. A small, sneaky incursion into Oldtown and the Citadel would be thrilling, but a military victory would in my opinion be unrealistic and disappointing.  

[McGuv19]

37 minutes ago, Davjos said:

I think you’re underestimating the base strength of House Hightower, especially when Oldtown is under attack. They are the second or third richest house in Westeros. Perhaps the numbers for the trained combatants are a fair estimation, although I expect them to be able to field  more men with the preparation time they have had. However, they should be able to put easy to use weapons such as crossbows or spear or even simple stones to throw in the hands of tens of thousands of citizens.

Therefore I am of the opinion Euron cannot take Oldtown without the use of magic. But Leyton Hightower and his Maid have been locked in the tower for over a decade ‘consulting books of spells’. With the strengthening of magic due to the birth of dragons, they must have magic to some extent to rival Euron. And they have the scientific centre of the world at their fingertips. 

 

I would be really disappointed if Oldtown falls. The Hightowers are one of my favourite houses due to their mystery, possibility due to the unknown and sympathetic characters as Breakwind. A small, sneaky incursion into Oldtown and the Citadel would be thrilling, but a military victory would in my opinion be unrealistic and disappointing.  

You are right as I didn’t consider the Hightowers giving weapons to untrained smallfolk. Also I am just reading on the wiki that during the Dance the Hightowers fielded well over 9,000 men, likely not including vassals or the city watch. Combine that with assistance from other nearby castles in the Reach (not Horn Hill as Samwell believes it is lightly garrisoned and not castles along the Mander as they are being raided by ironmen) and increasing the size of the city watch to 4,000+(which Oldtown would be able to support as they are wealthy and likely not in massive debt like the crown) I would now say 15,000 actual soldiers and ~15,000 peasant soldiers.

As for navy it is mentioned Baelor ‘Brightsmile’ Hightower is building ships and Gunthor is building up the harbours defences or at least has charge of the harbour. The royal fleet of King’s Landing before the Battle of the Blackwater was about 50 ships, facing off against Stannis’ 200. Since the Hightowers control a sea port city also on a river (like King’s Landing), are actively building ships, and are extremely wealthy I would estimate at least 75-100 ships (Stannis was building ships from Jon Arryn’s death to the Blackwater and I would say ships from the lords of the narrow sea made up about half of Stannis’ 200, the other ~100 being from the Stormlands, the Reach?, and Myrish and Lyseni sellsails). The Hightowers may get more ships (about 25) if the Redwyne ships left at the Arbor join them.

My verdict now is that it should be a comfortable victory for Lord Leyton if the ironborn attack head on (which I don’t think they will because Euron isn’t an idiot) because he has the defensive advantage, the numbers advantage, and the bonus of his navy being an extra line of defense. With any luck Hightower’s ships alone would sink 25-75 of Euron’s ships and kill 950-2800 men. If Euron defeats Hightower’s fleet (drawing them into the Redwyne Straits and encircling them?, like how Stannis beat Victarion at Fair Isle) then he could take Blackcrown, Three Towers and Sunhouse at his leisure if they don’t have too many men defending them since they are on the coast. But I don’t see how he could take Oldtown unless it is by stealth or sorcery. Perhaps Euron could intercept Cinnamon Wind and interrogate Marwyn, who may have knowledge of a magic or weakness of Oldtown.

 

[BlackLightning]

On 8/12/2019 at 2:59 AM, The Young Maester said:

Yeah if Euron sacks Oldtown, he will probably head for the citadel and take all sorts of forbidden books and potions etc. Whilst also killing half of the Maester's of Oldtown.

Exactly.

By killing most (if not all) of the maesters, Westeros will have a severe lack of knowledge going into A Dream of Spring. They'll be fighting blind and unable to communicate with each other.

On 8/12/2019 at 4:05 PM, miyuki said:

Will the Euron chapter in Oldtown be told by Samwell's POV or Aeron's?

I think Aeron is going to tell the story of the naval battles and Euron's evil magical powers. Samwell is going to pick up where the Aeron POV leaves off (RIP) and tell the story of what happens when Euron makes landfall and enters Oldtown. Until Samwell escapes.