College Football 2019: Rise and Fall of the Transfer Portal QBs

[Rhom]

I searched back and couldn’t find a college football thread... and we are just a few days away from kickoff!!!!  

With two spots in the playoffs pretty much already spoken for, the most interesting bit to me is all the news coming out about the QBs who transferred and how some of them are still not winning their hand selected jobs.

So anyways, discuss.

[dbunting]

I was just looking at some Michigan games this year and damn OSU game is well over 200 for single tickets. I guess we are still convincing ourselves that THIS is the year we finally don't embarrass ourselves when playing them?

[Rhom]

Predictions on your school of choice?  

UK has an opportunity to follow up the best season of my lifetime with another good year.  The schedule is certainly favorable, its just a matter of if they can sustain success or not.  Here's how I see the season.

Four non conference home games.  All wins.  Toledo is actually pretty good, but I think we should win as long as we don't overlook them.  Louisville is in the early stages of what I expect to be a long rebuild.  

Two conference wins that I don't see us losing unless everything imaginable goes wrong.  At Vandy.  Home against Arkansas.

So that should send us to our fourth straight bowl.  No small feat at UK.

Two conference games I just don't see us winning.  Florida at home.  Georgia on the road.  We beat Florida at their place last year, but they really improved as the season went on and they return most of that team.

At this point, I'm seeing us as 6-2.  (These games are not in order as I listed them.)  Where the season for UK will be made is on the four other games.  Lose all four and even with another bowl, its a bit of a disappointment.  Go 2-2 and its a better season than almost every year in my lifetime.

Missouri at home.  We beat them on the road last year on a bit of a prayer.  They have Kelly Bryant (another of those transfer QBs), and our secondary is untested at best and a huge liability at worst.

Tennessee at home.  They were hot garbage last year... and they still beat us.  That game was humiliating and a reminder that for as much progress as we have made, we are still UK.  Its in Lexington this year, so that gives me hope and I don't have much faith in their coaching staff.

At South Carolina.  We've beat them five years in a row and that is basically unheard of at UK.  Their schedule is a meat grinder, for them to do anything this year they basically have to beat us.  All of that works in their favor... but we still have an ace of our sleeve; they are coached by Will Muschamp.

At Mississppi State.  Its at their place.  They lost a ton off a stellar defense.  We beat them 28-7 last year.    But even in years where we are good, we struggle to beat Mississippi State.  

With all that in mind, I think we go 8-4.  We could and maybe even should be able to go 4-0 in those toss up games, but I don't see it.  Similarly, I don't see us going 0-4 in those games either.  So I'd say 7-5 I'm okay with, 8-4 I think would be good and anything over that would be an amazing show of progress as a program.

@MisterOJ @Ded As Ned any thoughts contrary?

[Rhom]

Saturday Down South agrees with my 8-4 prediction, but has a different route to get there.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

On 8/13/2019 at 8:38 PM, dbunting said:

I was just looking at some Michigan games this year and damn OSU game is well over 200 for single tickets. I guess we are still convincing ourselves that THIS is the year we finally don't embarrass ourselves when playing them?

Pro tip, keep your student ID. I graduated eight years ago and I can still get student tickets with mine.

[Ferrum Aeternum]

I don't expect much out of Ole Miss this year, but at least there's a glimmer of optimism. The NCAA mess is finally over, and both coordinators are mercifully gone, replaced by the most overqualified pair in all of CFB (RichRod and Mike McIntyre). Unfortunately the team is so young at so many key positions, that expecting visible improvement this year is dubious.

Our de facto starting QB is a redshirt freshman, and every other scholarship QB is a true freshman. Lots of potential in that group, but zero experience. Yikes.

That's kind of the story for the whole offense - plenty of talented youngsters, but very little meaningful experience. Out of all those newcomers, I'm most excited about RB Jerrion Ealy, a two-sport superstar who turned down pro baseball and draws comparisons to Saquon Barkley. Unfortunately I don't even know the names of most of the guys who'll be trying to open holes for him as - yup, the OL is also loaded with freshmen. 

The defense should be much improved, which isn't difficult when you're the literal worst in the P5. Lots of upperclassmen, and for the first time since 2016, a defensive coaching staff with a working grasp of football fundamentals. I'm eager to see my favorite team's players do things like "line up properly," "take correct angles," and "tackle the ballcarrier." It's been a while!

Record-wise - man, it's a shame, because as our typical schedule goes this one isn't bad. Non-conference opener at Memphis and home vs. Cal are the only challenging games out of conference, and the SEC draw isn't too awful either. Unfortunately I don't think it will matter in the final results. I'm seeing us as a 3-6 win team depending on how a few games shake out. Just getting to a bowl would be a stellar success given all the adversity around the program. 

PS - speaking of RichRod, it's interesting to see how the dynamic among he and the other coaches is already shaping up. Our HC Matt Luke is a really good dude, and was probably the right person to lead the program through the last couple of years, but his coaching acumen pales in comparison to the top guys in the league. According to our inside guys, RichRod is basically running practice and appears to be the de facto coach-in-waiting, which I suppose is fine. He's at least got high level experience and some pedigree. 

[KingintheNorth4]

Illinois has been a young team every year that Lovie has been there, but with 17 returning starters and some solid transfer players, this is easily his most experienced team. 

Even though the offense will be led by a true freshman QB in Isaiah Williams, he's a dynamic dual threat and and their highest rated signee since 2007. The strength of this offense will be it's RBs and Oline. The starting RB, Reggie Corbin has a great chance at back to back 1000 yard seasons with one of the best Olines in the B1G. For the recieving corp, I just hope they drop less balls.

With 10 starters back and Lovie calling the signals this year, the defense can't go anywhere but up after giving up 63 points in three games last season. The entire Dline returns intact, so they should be much tougher against the run. The linebacker unit have not lived up to expectations the last couple of years but are led by Jake Hansen, so they should be more experienced and talented. I'm hoping the secondary will have less missed starts this year after one starter was suspended then dismissed with several more players missing games for unknown reasons.

Best case scenario? They go 6-6 this year. They will be favored in four games this year and I expect them to be 3-0 when they host Nebraska on Sept 21, so they'll have to pull off at least two upsets to show progress and make a bowl.

[dbunting]

On 8/15/2019 at 11:17 AM, Tywin et al. said:

Pro tip, keep your student ID. I graduated eight years ago and I can still get student tickets with mine.

I am 47 years old, no one is mistaking me for a student!  A professor maybe.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

6 minutes ago, dbunting said:

I am 47 years old, no one is mistaking me for a student!  A professor maybe.

Lol, lie then I guess? And to be fair, I did once take a summer course with a retiree in her 60's. She had a student card and used it for the hockey games. 

[dbunting]

Michigan is as always a mystery. Should be really good based on offensive talent and defensive scheme, but can they ever win one that really counts?

Starts season with two gimmes, Mid Tenn State and Army, if you can't beat these two then why worry about playoffs.

First test, @Wisconsin is next, this one could get Michigan a ranking boost and confidence, or show us they are once again pretenders. Cupcake Rutgers follows before playing Iowa. Iowa at the big house is much different than Iowa at their house, should be a win. Follow up with Illinois, a should be win.

To me Michigan should be undefeated at this point heading into Penn State, likely night game white out. Fortunately I don't think too highly of PSU so a win as long as they are not looking ahead to....  Notre Dame, at home under the lights. If nothing changes I am likely to go to this one. I am a Michigan slappy so of course I give Michigan a hard fought win here, followed by an easier one at Maryland the next week, although this is a possible trap game, hangover game what ever term we want to call it because the next opponent is Michigan State. I will just finish my kool aid drinking and say Michigan is undefeated going into the last weekend against oSU fuckeyes.  That game I will not bother to predict since we can't seem to beat them no matter what we do.  Michigan finishes 10-2, 11-1 or 12-0. Losses are Notre Dame and or oSU.

[Ded As Ned]

On 8/15/2019 at 7:58 AM, Rhom said:

Predictions on your school of choice?  

(snip)

With all that in mind, I think we go 8-4.  We could and maybe even should be able to go 4-0 in those toss up games, but I don't see it.  Similarly, I don't see us going 0-4 in those games either.  So I'd say 7-5 I'm okay with, 8-4 I think would be good and anything over that would be an amazing show of progress as a program.

@MisterOJ @Ded As Ned any thoughts contrary?

I'm right there with you.  I'll go with 8-4 for my prediction... 7 wins I'm satisfied.  8 I'm happy.  9+ I'm ecstatic!  Lots of ways we could end up with 7 or 8, depending on how the chips fall.  I'll disagree with you that Florida is an automatic L... I'd label it a "likely L" but being at home we have a shot to pull it out.  

The Flying Muschamps have the UK game circled on their calendar, which is flattering.  I wouldn't be too surprised if they pull it off this year, but it is always fun to beat them and if we win again this year, we are in true streak territory.

And it's always fun to beat on little brother while they're down.

[Ded As Ned]

On 8/13/2019 at 11:05 PM, Triskele said:

I've been toying with ditching cable recently, but last year was my first year having Pac-12 channel, and that's one of my biggest hang-ups at the moment.  

The only reason I still have paid television is for live sports.  As soon as I can just pay to stream them only, I'm done.  It should happen... sometime.  Maybe not soon.  But sometime.

[Rhom]

Sticking with the theme

 

[Rhom]

That’ll teach those Tar Heels...

Mississippi State football and basketball to be put on probation for having a tutor take tests for players.

[Ramsay B.]

11 hours ago, Rhom said:

That’ll teach those Tar Heels...

Mississippi State football and basketball to be put on probation for having a tutor take tests for players.

Smh. If only they had the tutor take tests for other students also, not just athletes. 

I’m actually slightly optimistic about FSU this year. They’re not gonna be a real threat to the big dogs, but 7-8 wins would be nice. Best thing I heard during the offseason was Taggart admitting to running a bullshit offense last year, and bringing in Kendal Briles to run things this season. His teams(Houston, Baylor, Fla. Atlantic)over the last 4 years have averaged 42 ppg. As long as they don’t do shotgun draws 60% of the time I’ll be happy.

Florida-Miami tonight. That’s a meteor game.

[Rhom]

1 hour ago, Ramsay B. said:

Florida-Miami tonight. That’s a meteor game.

All hail the meteor game!   

I'm just excited to have college football back.

[Ramsay B.]

5 hours ago, Triskele said:

Will they can Taggert just like that if they don't win at least something like that?  

If they don’t make a bowl game again, and he loses the team like he did at times last year then I think he’s gone. There must be some progression.

I really dislike Franks from Florida. 

[Rhom]

Florida defense collapsing in this final minute.  If Miami wins, it was an absolute gift from the Gator secondary.

[HokieStone]

It seems everybody and the their brother is getting a waiver for having to sit a year after transferring.  Got beat out in the QB competition?  Waiver.  Coach changed?  Waiver.  Stubbed a toe?  Waiver.

Except for Brock Hoffman, who transferred from Coastal Carolina to Virginia Tech in order to be closer and help out at home...because his Mom had a brain tumor.

https://www.roanoke.com/sports/college/va_tech/the-ncaa-process-is-horrible-brock-hoffman-s-family-blindsided/article_c5089c78-c931-11e9-a864-535f669b7652.html

Unbelievable.

[Rhom]

11 hours ago, HokieStone said:

It seems everybody and the their brother is getting a waiver for having to sit a year after transferring.  Got beat out in the QB competition?  Waiver.  Coach changed?  Waiver.  Stubbed a toe?  Waiver.

Except for Brock Hoffman, who transferred from Coastal Carolina to Virginia Tech in order to be closer and help out at home...because his Mom had a brain tumor.

https://www.roanoke.com/sports/college/va_tech/the-ncaa-process-is-horrible-brock-hoffman-s-family-blindsided/article_c5089c78-c931-11e9-a864-535f669b7652.html

Unbelievable.

Saw that yesterday.  Its a case Kentucky fans have been watching because we are still waiting to hear back on Xavier Peters who transferred to be closer to his infant son.  (Lives in Cincy with his mom.)  If they aren't clearing a guy because his mom is sick... Peters has no chance.  If Hoffman and Peters were QBs, I just have the feeling this would be a done deal already.