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Heresy 226 of wolves, dragons and other familiars


Black Crow

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20 hours ago, corbon said:

Well, if you want to fiddle with prophecies, perhaps. But I think treating it as a recipe is asking to get burned - as a number of Targaryens did.

A recipe is a set of conditions that cause a certain result.
This is more like a list of conditions that will appear congruent with a certain result, but are not in themselves the cause of that result. 

Matching these conditions will not necessarily cause AA to return. But when he returns, these conditions will have been matched.

Well, since according to Mel, AA will wake dragons out of stone, I don't think he's likely to be accidentally killing the wrong dragons. 

I think its clear that the bleeding star business is related to AA's return, but not specifically to his birth or particular timing.
Mel:

Aemon:

Marwyn: 

The first quote from Mel actually says something different. Not that the person who will be AAv2 is born under the bleeding star, but that its under the bleeding star that Lightbringer will be drawn. 
Seems to me that the AA being 'born' bit is really about the timing of that person becoming AAv2 - ie AAv2 being 're-born', not the birth of the person who will become AA. Rhaegar misinterpreted because the sign fitted his misinterpretation.

Dany seems to be it, with "lightbringer" being the dragons, her "red sword" that was 'drawn' (born from rock) in the pyre in which she burned Drogo. At that time AA/tPrincesstwP was 'born'.

Mel has the clues already. The red sword is not a sword at all. Its the dragons born from stone. Because thats what AA is supposed to do - draw a red sword and birth dragons from stone, apparently the same event in two different passages/translations..

I don't think being born or conceived under the comet is part of the prophecy.   I think old Nan was right, the comet means dragons.   Various characters interpret the comet to mean what they want it to, including the idea being born or conceived under the comet is significant.

The idea the prophecy says Lightbringer will be drawn under the comet is interesting.   This means if we have a fake Lightbringer, we have a real one somewhere else, unless the comet comes back. 

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Power. He wants to be connected to the ruling family of Westeros, and is backing the Targaryens long term over the Lannisters or Tyrells m or ayone else.

It could be prophecy related, but need not be. We have no indication it is so far.

16 hours ago, LynnS said:

He dared not marry Arianne to anyone, other than offspring of the line of Aerys and Rhaella. 

Only in respect of he already had a plan for her to marry Visery. Which was a signed pact, if secret.

16 hours ago, LynnS said:

But it seems to me that Martel thinks that offspring from the line of Martell and Targaryen are key to something.  Perhaps Rhaegar thinks the same thing since he claims that Aegon is the outcome of that prophecy.  Perhaps he was told as much by the GoHH/Woods Witch when he went on his solo visits to Summerhall.  That might explain why he was happiest visiting a place that is connected to tragedy.

Textually there is no indication that Martell blood is relevant to the prophecy. 
Other than the fact that the two families have intermarried.

16 hours ago, LynnS said:

So I do see how TPWIP could be a Rhoynish prophecy connected in some way to a messianic prophecy.  So if Mel is right and the pwip is also the one who wakes dragons from stone; that leaves Aegon out.  It also leaves Dany out since she is not the offspring of Dorne/Valyria.  But how can that be if she is the one who wakes dragons from stone? It would mean that she is the offspring of those two bloodlines. 

Or alternately, the Martell bloodline is irrelevant and Doran is making his decision based on more prosaic reasons.

16 hours ago, LynnS said:

That brings ups House Dayne.  Perhaps it isn't a comet that shows up on the day of birth, but rather someone  born to the falling star of House Dayne.  

Its a bleeding star, not a falling star.

12 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

If Maester Aemon left the Jade Companion for Jon to read, either he was providing the full story or a more accurate story. There's no way for us to tell, and even then history books are written by the victors and facts can and do get twisted. I associate the prince that was promised with dragons and Azor Ahai as a dragon killer, so to think these two figures are the same person seem to be a contradiction to me. The "bleeding star" can be a herald for both people.

Or one of those associations is not correct?

12 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

Septon Barth is credited with saying dragons are neither male or female, but it is unclear if he was also the one that translated the prophecy.

The mistake has deceived them for 1000 years. That predates Barth by a long long time.

 

8 hours ago, JNR said:

It's a stretch to call what happened to Dany there a rebirth, in my opinion. 

Its not Dany who was reborn then, its AA. Before the event, she was just Dany. After she was Dany, AA reborn.

8 hours ago, JNR said:

However, even if you see it this way, it's certainly not what Aemon had mind in talking about salt and smoke.  Because  Aemon wasn't in Essos when the dragons hatched, and he has has no idea of the circumstances.  When Aemon says Dany was born amidst salt and smoke he means Dragonstone.

He's got to make it fit. In his opinion, the dragons prove it, so he's just making whatever he can feel for the markers. He knows Dany was born at dragonstone (salt and smoke). We know (or think) AA was reborn in Dany's pyre (smoke, and salt from blood?)

8 hours ago, JNR said:

One can say anything one likes, but it's an objective fact that in canon, the future behavior of the PtwP is never provided. 

Well, We've seen Benerro and Mel make various claims. Seems to me like thats canon (if locally biased and maybe not correct canon) evidence of the future behaviour of AA/tPtwP.

8 hours ago, JNR said:

I also note that Aemon's behavior is really not consistent with the premise that he thinks AAR and PtwP are the same. 

Consider that we know he thinks Dany = PtwP.  Therefore, if he thought PtwP = AAR, then by the transitive property of prophetic interpretation he would believe Dany = AA. 

It would then be a top priority of Aemon's to get the Jade Compendium into her hands, and make damned sure she reads up on AA, so that she understands full well what she will need before she rides forth into battle.

But as we know, that is not what Aemon did at all...

 

Sure it is.
Aemon's behaviour at the wall is before he hears about Dany and her dragons. He doesn't believe Mel's bullshit, so wants Jon to be forearmed.

Once he hears about Dany, then his understanding changes. She really is the PtwP, the dragons prove it. But he's no longer in a position to do the same things. He doesn't have access to a Jade Compendium for example. His answer is to try to go to her himself, and he rallies to try to do that. Then when he realises he can't make it he tells Sam to get the citadel to send her a Maester, I guess trusting them to send a Maester who will know about AA/tPtwP.

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8 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

have asserted this before that the dragons are the prince that was promised

It's an interesting idea.  Three heads, born under comet, salt, smoke, and of course if Dany is the "mother of dragons," then in a metaphorical sense those dragons do come of the line of Aerys and Rhaella, making the Ghost of High Heart correct.

It's just a bit awkward interpreting three dragons as a singular prince.

7 hours ago, Black Crow said:

And of course GRRM has warned so many times about trusting in prophecy

Especially when he hasn't seen fit to give us the actual text of the prophecies.  It really is a fool's game trying to interpret a prophecy you haven't even read.

9 hours ago, Black Crow said:

it really is unwise to proclaim Our Mel's version as the only true and authorised interpretation - which I still maintain is what Maester Aemon was telling Jon

Still waiting to hear why Aemon wouldn't have just said "Don't trust Mel" to Jon in this scenario...

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1 hour ago, corbon said:

Its not Dany who was reborn then, its AA. Before the event, she was just Dany. After she was Dany, AA reborn.

I'm afraid I haven't seen much sign of Dany wielding the most defining and consistent attribute of the AAR myth -- the sword.

1 hour ago, corbon said:

He's got to make it fit. In his opinion, the dragons prove it, so he's just making whatever he can feel for the markers. He knows Dany was born at dragonstone (salt and smoke). We know (or think) AA was reborn in Dany's pyre

Still don't recall Dany wielding a burning sword on this occasion.  Or any occasion.

This illustrates the problem of trying to work without the actual text.  It might be that the PtwP prophecy reads something like

Quote

The coming of the prince that was promised will be heralded by a bleeding star

That would give us lots of room to maneuver.  We could read that to mean "birth" or "conception" or even something like "the destined person won't become the prince until the bleeding star shows up."  But as it is, we just don't know.

1 hour ago, corbon said:

We've seen Benerro and Mel make various claims.

We've seen Benerro make claims about AAR without ever mentioning the PtwP. 

Mel's outlook seems doubtful to me for many reasons, not least of them that she is convinced Stannis is both PtwP and AAR and I'm confident she is wrong on both points.

1 hour ago, corbon said:

Aemon's behaviour at the wall is before he hears about Dany and her dragons. He doesn't believe Mel's bullshit, so wants Jon to be forearmed.

And once again, we must ponder why

13 minutes ago, JNR said:

Aemon wouldn't have just said "Don't trust Mel" to Jon in this scenario

Instead, he gave Jon a homework assignment and never mentioned Mel's name once.  Quite a roundabout way of making such a simple point, unless it's not so simple.

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1 hour ago, JNR said:

I'm afraid I haven't seen much sign of Dany wielding the most defining and consistent attribute of the AAR myth -- the sword.

Still don't recall Dany wielding a burning sword on this occasion.  Or any occasion.

Dracarys. B)

1 hour ago, JNR said:

We've seen Benerro make claims about AAR without ever mentioning the PtwP. 

Its clear they are one and the same prophecy. Too many identical markers for anything else.

1 hour ago, JNR said:

Mel's outlook seems doubtful to me for many reasons, not least of them that she is convinced Stannis is both PtwP and AAR and I'm confident she is wrong on both points.

So am I. Mel having things wrong doesn't mean she has the wrong base datapoints, just that she's made an interpretational error that suits her aims and locked it in.
I'm not so sure she is utterly convinced. She must know that Stannis' sword is not really Lightbringer.

1 hour ago, JNR said:

And once again, we must ponder why

Instead, he gave Jon a homework assignment and never mentioned Mel's name once.  Quite a roundabout way of making such a simple point, unless it's not so simple.

Or he's worried about her seeing things in the flames. As Davos found out - she can see direct threats to her in the flames, be forewarned. 

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3 hours ago, JNR said:

...instead, he gave Jon a homework assignment and never mentioned Mel's name once.  Quite a roundabout way of making such a simple point, unless it's not so simple.

I thought it was rather laconic - and effective

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16 hours ago, corbon said:

Its a bleeding star, not a falling star.

I know that.  Just as I know that a bleeding star is not the same as 'when the stars bleed' either; which is the story that Mel tells first.  I also know that your position about Dorne/Targaryen alliance is only about power.  I disagree.  I think Prince of Dorne has an interest in the prophecy and is covering his bases.  Martell keeps everything close to his chest, so I don't expect Martin put everything he's thinking in the text.  Sarella is certainly on a mission at the Citadel and Doran is waiting to hear about what she learns. 

In the meantime, Mel refers to the comet as a bleeding star.

When the stars bleed = meteor shower

Rhaegar is also certain that Aegon is the fulfillment of the woods witch prophecy.  I don't think it's only the Targ bloodline that is important to him. 

As to the falling star/comet allusion; I think it's quite possible to mistake seeing a falling star in a dream for a comet.  I also think that it's House Dayne that is important rather than House Martell.

 

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10 hours ago, corbon said:

Textually there is no indication that Martell blood is relevant to the prophecy. 
Other than the fact that the two families have intermarried.

Well to be fair, when the woods witch prophecy came about, Martell blood was already present in the Targaryen line.  And while under the belief that the prince that was promised would come from the line of Aerys and Rhaella, Rhaegar is then married to another Martell.  So one can make an inference.

10 hours ago, corbon said:

He's got to make it fit. In his opinion, the dragons prove it, so he's just making whatever he can feel for the markers. He knows Dany was born at dragonstone (salt and smoke). We know (or think) AA was reborn in Dany's pyre (smoke, and salt from blood?)

In a way, Aemon is acting very much like Melisandre (and pretty much everyone on this forum), taking one piece of evidence, in this case the dragons, and then making everything else fit, whether it really fits the prophecy or not.

A slight issue I have with Dany being AA reborn, is if we assume her rebirth came at the funeral pyre, where is the salt?  I can see the smoke certainly, but not the salt.  Kind of the same issue with Rhaegar’s birth at Summerhall, the smoke is easy to see, but the salt being the tears of grief?  That seems a bit of a stretch.

It would have also been an easier fit, if Dany was actually a princess at the time of her “rebirth”.  Yet she wasn’t, she was a Queen, as she was quick to remind Jorah.  (Assuming that we can believe Dany’s origin story as told by Viserys).  I suppose the counter argument, if you were a Jon as the legitimate son of Rhaegar believer, was that Jon was the King at the time of the birth of dragons, which I guess would still make her a princess?  And perhaps it’s enough that Dany was born a princess even if during her “rebirth” she was a queen.

Of course I have a much harder issue with Jon being tptwp for the same reason.  I mean, Jon would have never actually been a prince, if once again we believe he was the legitimate son of Rhaegar and Lyanna.  Jon would have been born a king in that scenario.  So shouldn’t the prince that was promised be an actual prince or princess?

This is kind of why I lean towards the prophecy being a Rhoynish one.  I mean every child of House Martell is called a prince or princess.  And that status presumably never changes, it’s their highest title their sovereign.    Unlike princes in the rest of Westerosi, where later they can morph into being a king.  Unless perhaps, the prophecy is predicated on being the younger sibling of a king.

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1 minute ago, Frey family reunion said:

A slight issue I have with Dany being AA reborn, is if we assume her rebirth came at the funeral pyre, where is the salt?  I can see the smoke certainly, but not the salt.  Kind of the same issue with Rhaegar’s birth at Summerhall, the smoke is easy to see, but the salt being the tears of grief?  That seems a bit of a stretch.

Salt tears, I believe.  Aemon mentions them:  the salt was from the tears shed at Summerhall. 

3 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

A slight issue I have with Dany being AA reborn, is if we assume her rebirth came at the funeral pyre, where is the salt?  I can see the smoke certainly, but not the salt.  Kind of the same issue with Rhaegar’s birth at Summerhall, the smoke is easy to see, but the salt being the tears of grief?  That seems a bit of a stretch. 

I don't make the assumption that her rebirth came during the funeral.  I think that happened before and during MMD's ritual to revive Drogo as I've stated upthread.  

5 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

It would have also been an easier fit, if Dany was actually a princess at the time of her “rebirth”.  Yet she wasn’t, she was a Queen, as she was quick to remind Jorah.  (Assuming that we can believe Dany’s origin story as told by Viserys).  I suppose the counter argument, if you were a Jon as the legitimate son of Rhaegar believer, was that Jon was the King at the time of the birth of dragons, which I guess would still make her a princess?  And perhaps it’s enough that Dany was born a princess even if during her “rebirth” she was a queen.

Born and reborn, as a condition, both make an apperance in these prophecies.  She was certainly a princess, at the time of her birth.

7 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

This is kind of why I lean towards the prophecy being a Rhoynish one.  I mean every child of House Martell is called a prince or princess.  And that status presumably never changes.  Unlike princes in the rest of Westerosi, where later they can morph into being a king.  Unless perhaps, the prophecy is predicated on being the younger sibling of a king.

I think your intuition is right about this.  Except that it isn't House Martell, but House Dayne that is impotant.  Dany's vision during her dragon dream shows a line of kings all holding the pale sword.  This is consistent with Martin showing ancestors in Jaime's dream of his ancestors going back to Lann the clever and similarly, Jon's dreams about the Kings in the crypts.

We could infer that these are Dany's ancestors.  You would have to take the leap that Rhaegar and Ashara produced Dany.  There are hints that Dany is the spitting image of Ashera; just as Gendry is the spitting image of Robert.

There is also the business of Rhaegar speaking to a third person in Dany's vision, that there must be one more (child?).  Dany is a child of three.  Perhaps not Rhaegar's sister but Aegon's sister.

 

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11 hours ago, corbon said:

Once he hears about Dany, then his understanding changes. She really is the PtwP, the dragons prove it. But he's no longer in a position to do the same things. He doesn't have access to a Jade Compendium for example. His answer is to try to go to her himself, and he rallies to try to do that. Then when he realises he can't make it he tells Sam to get the citadel to send her a Maester, I guess trusting them to send a Maester who will know about AA/tPtwP.

Something is missing.   Aemon not only believes Dany is AA, but that it is important she knows, or otherwise gets help from a measter.   TPWWP might need a flaming sword or a dragon, but we've seen nothing else indicating AA needs some special or obscure knowledge.   If Aemon believes she is prophesied to do something, he should believe she will do it regardless of if she knows about the prophecy.   Yet, he seems so desperate to help, or send help from the Citadel. 

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1 hour ago, Frey family reunion said:

Well to be fair, when the woods witch prophecy came about, Martell blood was already present in the Targaryen line.  And while under the belief that the prince that was promised would come from the line of Aerys and Rhaella, Rhaegar is then married to another Martell.  So one can make an inference.

In a way, Aemon is acting very much like Melisandre (and pretty much everyone on this forum), taking one piece of evidence, in this case the dragons, and then making everything else fit, whether it really fits the prophecy or not.

A slight issue I have with Dany being AA reborn, is if we assume her rebirth came at the funeral pyre, where is the salt?  I can see the smoke certainly, but not the salt.  Kind of the same issue with Rhaegar’s birth at Summerhall, the smoke is easy to see, but the salt being the tears of grief?  That seems a bit of a stretch.

It would have also been an easier fit, if Dany was actually a princess at the time of her “rebirth”.  Yet she wasn’t, she was a Queen, as she was quick to remind Jorah.  (Assuming that we can believe Dany’s origin story as told by Viserys).  I suppose the counter argument, if you were a Jon as the legitimate son of Rhaegar believer, was that Jon was the King at the time of the birth of dragons, which I guess would still make her a princess?  And perhaps it’s enough that Dany was born a princess even if during her “rebirth” she was a queen.

Of course I have a much harder issue with Jon being tptwp for the same reason.  I mean, Jon would have never actually been a prince, if once again we believe he was the legitimate son of Rhaegar and Lyanna.  Jon would have been born a king in that scenario.  So shouldn’t the prince that was promised be an actual prince or princess?

This is kind of why I lean towards the prophecy being a Rhoynish one.  I mean every child of House Martell is called a prince or princess.  And that status presumably never changes, it’s their highest title their sovereign.    Unlike princes in the rest of Westerosi, where later they can morph into being a king.  Unless perhaps, the prophecy is predicated on being the younger sibling of a king.

We've discussed the word 'prince' before.   We know the Prince of Wales and Prince of Dragonstone are 2nd in line for the throne, this is the more modern use of the word.   But a Prince is a sovereign, like a 'principal' and is someone who rules without having to answer to anyone.   If you read Machiavelli, his Prince talks a lot about princes who did not inherit their title. 

In Old Valaryia, similar to the Roman Republic, neither meaning of the word would apply.  And I don't agree this could apply to Rhone or Dorne, if the prophecy were about a foreign ruler, everyone would know. 

Either GRRM was thoughtless and lazy picking this term, or he was very deliberate. 

 

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10 hours ago, JNR said:

I'm afraid I haven't seen much sign of Dany wielding the most defining and consistent attribute of the AAR myth -- the sword.

Ninja'd by Corbon :ninja:

8 hours ago, corbon said:

Dracarys. B)

Yes, metaphorically the dragons are flaming swords as are falling stars and comets.

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53 minutes ago, Feather Crystal said:

Yes, metaphorically the dragons are flaming swords as are falling stars and comets.

Just so.  But is the red sword one of Dany's dragons?  Their fire isn't red.  So perhaps the comet is the red sword heralding the return of dragons.

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15 minutes ago, LynnS said:

Just so.  But is the red sword one of Dany's dragons?  Their fire isn't red.  So perhaps the comet is the red sword heralding the return of dragons.

Their fire isn’t red?

Azor Ahai could be the name of the bleeding star or comet.

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16 minutes ago, Feather Crystal said:

Their fire isn’t red?

Azor Ahai could be the name of the bleeding star or comet.

Quote

 

Drogon's scales are black, his horns and spinal plates are blood red,and his eyes are smoldering red pits.[2] His teeth are black as well.[3][2]His flame is black fire shot with red and the wash of its heat can be felt thirty feet away. His wing flap sounds like the clap of thunder. He bleeds black blood.[2]

Rhaegal is a green and bronze dragon:[2][3] his scales[4][5] and wings[6] are jade-green, while his eyes are bronze.[5][N 1] He has black claws and teeth like black needles.[6]His flames have been described as being yellow,[4] yellow and red[7] and "orange-and-yellow fire shot through with veins of green".[8]

The majority of Viserion's scales are cream, but his horns, wing bones and spinal crest are gold colored.[1][2] His teeth are shining black daggers.[3] His claws are black and sharp.[1] His eyes are two pools of molten gold[4][3] and his flame is pale gold shot through with red and orange.[3]Viserion has a roar that would send a hundred lions running.[3] Although his true color is cream.[5][6] he is often referred to as the white dragon.[4][7] He knows his name.[3] Wisps of smoke emit from his nostrils.[3] When wounded his blood glows gold and red.[3]

 

 

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19 hours ago, alienarea said:

and of course I have warned so many times about trusting in GRRM :P

Heh, 

Quote

“When the sun rises in the west and sets in the east,” she said sadly.  “When the seas go dry and mountains blow in the wind like leaves.  When my womb quickens again, and I bear a living child.  When Winds of Winter is finally finished.  Then you will return, my sun-and-stars, and not before.”

Never, the darkness cried, never never never.

 

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1 hour ago, Brad Stark said:

We've discussed the word 'prince' before.   We know the Prince of Wales and Prince of Dragonstone are 2nd in line for the throne, this is the more modern use of the word.   But a Prince is a sovereign, like a 'principal' and is someone who rules without having to answer to anyone.   If you read Machiavelli, his Prince talks a lot about princes who did not inherit their title. 

In Old Valaryia, similar to the Roman Republic, neither meaning of the word would apply.  And I don't agree this could apply to Rhone or Dorne, if the prophecy were about a foreign ruler, everyone would know. 

Either GRRM was thoughtless and lazy picking this term, or he was very deliberate. 

 

Well they did have to translate the prophecy from some foreign language presumably, so it shouldn’t come as a surprise that the prophecy possibly dealt with a foreign ruler as opposed to a Westeros one.  Unless of course the translation came from the runes of the First Men, which I think is very possible.  It certainly could explain the possible trouble they had in translating it.

 

ETA as for GRRM, lazy and deliberate may be two sides of the same coin for him.

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2 hours ago, LynnS said:

Salt tears, I believe.  Aemon mentions them:  the salt was from the tears shed at Summerhall.

I know, that’s what Aemon comes up with, but it seems like a bit of a stretch to me.  

If you want to set everything else aside and look at the characters who were the most closely “reborn” in salt and smoke, I would look to Davos and Tyrion.

Both had near death experiences at the Battle of the Blackwater, where the salt water bay was set on fire. 

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