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Heresy 226 of wolves, dragons and other familiars


Black Crow

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38 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

I know, that’s what Aemon comes up with, but it seems like a bit of a stretch to me.  

If you want to set everything else aside and look at the characters who were the most closely “reborn” in salt and smoke, I would look to Davos and Tyrion.

Both had near death experiences at the Battle of the Blackwater, where the salt water bay was set on fire. 

Yes, there is lots of that.  The Wall has a smoke house and plenty of salt.  The Quiet Isle with the saltpans and their smoking beehives.  Any active seamount like Dragonstone.  Bran also tastes a salty tear when he passes through the Black Gate, but where is the smoke?  Unless it's Jon's smoking blood as he lays dying.

Didn't you say that Jon was the sword without a hilt once his consciousness passes to Ghost?  That those two things have to be put back together to make the sword whole?

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1 hour ago, Frey family reunion said:

Well they did have to translate the prophecy from some foreign language presumably, so it shouldn’t come as a surprise that the prophecy possibly dealt with a foreign ruler as opposed to a Westeros one.  Unless of course the translation came from the runes of the First Men, which I think is very possible.  It certainly could explain the possible trouble they had in translating it.

 

ETA as for GRRM, lazy and deliberate may be two sides of the same coin for him.

We don't know the origin of the prophecy, but it seems Valyrian and tied to the Targaryens' ability to see the future.   But if it was translated from a non Valarian source and referenced a foriegn ruler, they would be looking for a foreign ruler, and they are clearly expecting a Targaryen. 

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12 hours ago, corbon said:

Dracarys.

You've interpreted a reptilian life form as a handheld metal weapon forged from ore.  Interesting.  (Reminds me a bit of Apple Martini, who once explained to me that Lightbringer was in fact a paramilitary body of men who live at the Wall.)

12 hours ago, corbon said:

Its clear they are one and the same prophecy. Too many identical markers for anything else.

Not at all.  Those markers are so easily explained, they could apply to tens of thousands of individuals born at the same approximate time.

There are also really basic distinctions between the two prophecies you seem to want to ignore.

Fundamentally, Azor Ahai is a messiah of the red faith, whereas the PtwP has nothing to do with religion, and is only an entity that has been of interest to the Targ family for generations.  Which of course is why other than Mel, you never hear red priests mention the PtwP at all (and her motive to conflate them is obvious).

Azor Ahai forges wields a burning sword, and is supposed to save the world in a time of growing darkness and cold. 

Meanwhile, the PtwP... er... uh... well, how awkward!  It seems the PtwP is never said to wield a burning sword, and no future role is supplied in canon at all... except of course by Melisandre, the sole person who confuses the two.   (Though many fans appear to be persuaded by her, reminding me of Selyse.)

On the word of a woods witch, Rhaella and Aerys were forced to marry to yield (eventually) the PtwP.  Why?   Was it to save the world in a time of cold and darkness, really?

Did Jaehaerys ever even believe in such a thing as a Second Long Night?  Is this a fixation of Targs going back generations?  I sure don't recall such references in canon.  Maybe someone can find some...

 

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1 hour ago, Brad Stark said:

We don't know the origin of the prophecy, but it seems Valyrian and tied to the Targaryens' ability to see the future.   But if it was translated from a non Valarian source and referenced a foriegn ruler, they would be looking for a foreign ruler, and they are clearly expecting a Targaryen. 

However, the Targaryens are only tied to the prophecy fairly recently as far as I can tell, in the time of Aegon V.  There is no mention at all of the prophecy in Fire & Blood for example.  

So the prophecy could have been adopted by House Targaryen from their maternal line of Martells.

Aemon claims that they have been trying to decipher the prophecy for a thousand years.  

So let's look back a thousand years ago and see what notable event was happening:

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This series of conflicts reached a bloody climax a thousand years ago in the Second Spice War, when three Valyrian dragonlords joined with their kin and cousins in Volantis to overwhelm, sack, and destroy Sarhoy, the great Rhoynar port city upon the Summer Sea. The warriors of Sarhoy were slaughtered savagely, their children carried off into slavery, and their proud pink city put to the torch. Afterward the Volantenes sowed the smoking ruins with salt so that Sarhoy might never rise again.

Martin, George R. R.. The World of Ice & Fire (A Song of Ice and Fire) . Random House Publishing Group. Kindle Edition. 

A thousand years ago was the height of the Rhoynish conflict with the Valyrians, a conflict that saw the Rhoynish civilization crushed but for the exiles led by Nymeria who landed in Dorne.  

So if the prophecy first started a thousand years ago, what might the prince that was promised reference?  Adopting perhaps the legend of Azor Ahai, it would seem logical that the prince that was promised might refer to a Rhoynish prince that would return amidst salt and smoke under a bleeding star.

Now fast forward to the time of Aegon V, and Aemon.  Their grandmother was a Dornish princess, and their mother Dornish as well.  

It seems clear that at this point in Targaryen history they may have been influenced not just by their Targaryen ancestry but by their Martell ancestry as well.  

So perhaps a Targaryen/Valyrian legend (the Dragon or the Dragon has three heads) is merged with a Rhoynish legend, the Prince that was Promised.

 

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11 hours ago, Black Crow said:

I thought it was rather laconic - and effective

I note that in order to persuade Sam that Mel was wrong, Aemon... said Mel was wrong, walking Sam through his reasoning:

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"Yet you felt no heat, did you? And the scabbard that held this sword, it is wood and leather, yes? I heard the sound when His Grace drew out the blade. Was the leather scorched, Sam? Did the wood seem burnt or blackened?"

Where was his laconic quality then?

And really, Jon seems to have applied his own critical thinking to Mel in ways that have nothing to do with Aemon's homework assignment.   For instance:

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"When the red star bleeds and the darkness gathers, Azor Ahai shall be born again amidst smoke and salt to wake dragons out of stone. Dragonstone is the place of smoke and salt."

Jon had heard all this before. "Stannis Baratheon was the Lord of Dragonstone, but he was not born there. He was born at Storm's End, like his brothers."

Not to mention:

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A grey girl on a dying horse. Daggers in the dark. A promised prince, born in smoke and salt. It seems to me that you make nothing but mistakes, my lady.

It's remarkable how easily she fools people, even so.  And when she conflates the PtwP and AAR, she is doing so again.

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6 hours ago, LynnS said:

Did you just step outside your comfort zone? :commie:

My comfort zone is wherever the logic takes me. I recognise and understand metaphor and allegory etc, I just don't think that everything is always metaphor and allegory etc. If there is a prosaic answer that works, I think its far more likely than a non prosaic answer.

In this case, there is no 'real' burning sword. Stannis' is clearly fake. And there is no other close that we have seen. Dany awakening the three dragons out of stone may not be the AA moment, but its by far, faaaar, the most obvious we have. Plus she's a main character that fits most of the other clues and is believable in-story for the most educated person we know in this area. She may not be it but there is no other candidate remotely close to her at this stage. So if its her, whats the burning sword? The dragons fit. Swords can be metaphorical, thats nothing new.

5 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

is acting very much like Melisandre (and pretty much everyone on this forum), taking one piece of evidence, in this case the dragons, and then making everything else fit, whether it really fits the prophecy or not.

Yes, I'm aware that this is happening amongst us (me) too. Yet what else can we do, if we want to discuss what we know and can judge to the best of our current knowledge thus far?

5 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

A slight issue I have with Dany being AA reborn, is if we assume her rebirth came at the funeral pyre, where is the salt?  I can see the smoke certainly, but not the salt.  Kind of the same issue with Rhaegar’s birth at Summerhall, the smoke is easy to see, but the salt being the tears of grief?  That seems a bit of a stretch.

Some have said tears, there's also blood (which is salty) or even possibly the general desert, which could be metaphorical (or locally) salt.

5 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

It would have also been an easier fit, if Dany was actually a princess at the time of her “rebirth”.  Yet she wasn’t, she was a Queen, as she was quick to remind Jorah.  (Assuming that we can believe Dany’s origin story as told by Viserys).  I suppose the counter argument, if you were a Jon as the legitimate son of Rhaegar believer, was that Jon was the King at the time of the birth of dragons, which I guess would still make her a princess?  And perhaps it’s enough that Dany was born a princess even if during her “rebirth” she was a queen.

Prince/Princess isn't the actual word though, is it? Its Dragon.

4 hours ago, Brad Stark said:

Something is missing.   Aemon not only believes Dany is AA, but that it is important she knows, or otherwise gets help from a measter.   TPWWP might need a flaming sword or a dragon, but we've seen nothing else indicating AA needs some special or obscure knowledge.   If Aemon believes she is prophesied to do something, he should believe she will do it regardless of if she knows about the prophecy.   Yet, he seems so desperate to help, or send help from the Citadel. 

In common with virtually everyone else, Aemon does not expect prophesy to just happen on its own. Dany needs guiding, helping, with those who have the right knowledge, to make sure she (and the prophesy) doesn't fail.

Its a flawed and irrational belief system, but common to almost everyone. And so is the alternative (flawed and irrational). If everyone just sits around doing nothing but wait for prophecy to act, then the prophecy can't work - nothing can because nobody actually does anything. I don't recall the philosophical terms, but its basically two opposing philosophies. Do whatever you can and hope that events therefore pan out in your favor, or do nothing in the belief that what will be will be. The latter is a recipe for emptiness and death, so most people embrace the former even though it doesn't always work - at least it works sometimes and makes you feel good about trying.

3 hours ago, LynnS said:

Just so.  But is the red sword one of Dany's dragons?  Their fire isn't red.  So perhaps the comet is the red sword heralding the return of dragons.

Two of the dragons have red amongst their flames. Drogon, black flames shot with red, sounds like a black iron sword with red flames.

2 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

If you want to set everything else aside and look at the characters who were the most closely “reborn” in salt and smoke, I would look to Davos and Tyrion.

Problem is, neither seem terribly relevant as major individuals to the Targaryens (or Rhoynish), nor to dragons, nor to the war for the dawn (though Tyrion may tick some of those boxes, maybe).
Dany 'outscores' them by a huge margin in the most apparently important areas.

17 minutes ago, JNR said:

You've interpreted a reptilian life form as a handheld metal weapon forged from ore.  Interesting. 

You think a sword can only be a handheld metal weapon forged form ore? Interesting. :P

17 minutes ago, JNR said:

Not at all.  Those markers are so easily explained, they could apply to tens of thousands of individuals born at the same approximate time.

Sure, but thats backwards. The point isn't who could apply those markers, its that these are the markers out of an infinite list of possible markers that are relevant to two major prophecies. That the prophecies use the same markers show that its the same prophecy, not that it must be the same person that fits those markers that fulfills two independent prophecies. 

17 minutes ago, JNR said:

There are also really basic distinctions between the two prophecies you seem to want to ignore.

Fundamentally, Azor Ahai is a messiah of the red faith, whereas the PtwP has nothing to do with religion, and is only an entity that has been of interest to the Targ family for generations.  Which of course is why other than Mel, you never hear red priests mention the PtwP at all (and her motive to conflate them is obvious).

Azor Ahai forges wields a burning sword, and is supposed to save the world in a time of growing darkness and cold. 

Meanwhile, the PtwP... er... uh... well, how awkward!  It seems the PtwP is never said to wield a burning sword, and no future role is supplied in canon at all... except of course by Melisandre, the sole person who confuses the two.   (Though many fans appear to be persuaded by her, reminding me of Selyse.)

No... We don't know everything, or even necessarily a lot, about the two prophecies. We have a few hints about what they do, each coloured by the individual biases and flaws of those unintentionally giving them too us. You are saying because the hints about what they do are not the same, they must be different. I'm saying the markers to create them are the same, therefore they are the same, the hints of what they do are merely snippets of a larger picture, and 'coloured' snippets at that. Actually far less likely to be accurate (due to the biases etc of those interpreting and using the prophecy) than the markers (which are written down, thus locked for all).

AA being a R'hllorist thing is not necessarily true. Its just that the R'hlorrists are the ones pushing their version. Similarly with tPtwP. We are only getting the Targaryen vision of it.
If the two 'sides' were pushing mutually exclusive visions, you would have a stronger case. But they are not, each is just emphasising their own area of interest.

I find Benero's war for the Dawn v2 part to be the most likely that such a prophecy would be about. I think his added 'yay R'hlorrists' extra benefits for us' parts are added religious bullshit though.

17 minutes ago, JNR said:

On the word of a woods witch, Rhaella and Aerys were forced to marry to yield (eventually) the PtwP.  Why?   Was it to save the world in a time of cold and darkness, really?

Did Jaehaerys ever even believe in such a thing as a Second Long Night?  Is this a fixation of Targs going back generations?  I sure don't recall such references in canon.  Maybe someone can find some...

Err, yeah, why is this so hard to believe? Humanity (including the Targaryens and their rule) ends unless this hero saves the day. Shit, better make it happen!

There is also the whole waking dragons out of stone business, which puts a rather personal and important flavour on it for the Targaryens, at least once they lose their dragons.

12 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

However, the Targaryens are only tied to the prophecy fairly recently as far as I can tell, in the time of Aegon V.  There is no mention at all of the prophecy in Fire & Blood for example.  

So the prophecy could have been adopted by House Targaryen from their maternal line of Martells.

Aemon claims that they have been trying to decipher the prophecy for a thousand years.  

So let's look back a thousand years ago and see what notable event was happening:

A thousand years ago was the height of the Rhoynish conflict with the Valyrians, a conflict that saw the Rhoynish civilization crushed but for the exiles led by Nymeria who landed in Dorne.  

So if the prophecy first started a thousand years ago, what might the prince that was promised reference?  Adopting perhaps the legend of Azor Ahai, it would seem logical that the prince that was promised might refer to a Rhoynish prince that would return amidst salt and smoke under a bleeding star.

This is a rather good argument. You are certainly upping the Rhoynish factor's odds in my personal assessment.

 

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1 hour ago, JNR said:

I note that in order to persuade Sam that Mel was wrong, Aemon... said Mel was wrong, walking Sam through his reasoning:

Where was his laconic quality then?

And really, Jon seems to have applied his own critical thinking to Mel in ways that have nothing to do with Aemon's homework assignment.   For instance:

Not to mention:

It's remarkable how easily she fools people, even so.  And when she conflates the PtwP and AAR, she is doing so again.

In my minds eye, Melisandre either knows Stannis isn't really Azor Ahai nor the PTWP but is trying to make people believe that he is, or she really believes he is and is being over-zealous in her attempts to help. IMO it's the former. She thinks the people expect Azor Ahai to have a flaming sword, so she made one. The "waking stone dragons" come up so she tells Davos to give her Edric and she'll use him to wake a stone dragon. She's the one providing the "accoutrements". If she truly believed Stannis was fulfilling the prophecy, would she not have faith that he'd come upon these items himself?

Melisandre has her reasons for presenting Stannis as Azor Ahai. She wants to eradicate He Who Shall Not Be Named and create an endless summer for Westeros and Essos. She must have seen Stannis in her flames fighting against the darkness and decided he was Rh'llor's servant.

1 hour ago, corbon said:

Its a flawed and irrational belief system, but common to almost everyone. And so is the alternative (flawed and irrational). If everyone just sits around doing nothing but wait for prophecy to act, then the prophecy can't work - nothing can because nobody actually does anything. I don't recall the philosophical terms, but its basically two opposing philosophies. Do whatever you can and hope that events therefore pan out in your favor, or do nothing in the belief that what will be will be. The latter is a recipe for emptiness and death, so most people embrace the former even though it doesn't always work - at least it works sometimes and makes you feel good about trying.

Is that how prophecy works? IMO a prophecy will come to fruition with or without human help or even interference. A prophecy is a foretelling or prediction of future events, often declared by a prophet, and supposedly divinely inspired.

Cersei hates Tyrion, not only for causing their mother's death, but because she believes he's the valonquar. What if it turns out that Jaime is the one that ends up strangling her? The prophecy will come true whether or not it's Jaime, Tyrion, or even some other "younger brother", but trying to circumnavigate the prophecy has caused Cersei to act in self-sabotaging ways.

Maggy the Frog predicted the deaths of all three of her children as soon as each of them wear golden crowns. Cersei did not want Myrcella to go to Dorne, and yet perhaps her death has been delayed, because the decision to send her was not her own? Arianne very nearly crowned Myrcella, but she's safe - even if Darkstar cut her ear off.

I think it bears repeating that I think the Prince that was Promised prophecy has been changed. She has appeared, but she's not going to come to Westeros. Her fate has been altered just as Myrcella escaped hers - at least "yet". Maybe Myrcella won't die until she's very old when she's finally crowned?

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Interesting thoughts on how or why the Azor Ahai and The Price that was Promised prophecy's seem so similar. Are they the same thing with different names or are they different in intent and origin?

On 8/18/2019 at 3:53 PM, corbon said:

Aemon is clearly referencing tPtwP prophecy, no matter what other context is around the conversation.

Agreed that when Mel is talking of Azor Ahai, Aemon is interpreting and discussing tPtwP. The concept of a sword and a comet seem to tie them together, and a hero (or villain, depending on your view).

On 8/18/2019 at 4:46 PM, Frey family reunion said:

I mean the Valyrians were a freehold they didn't have kings or princes.  However, their most notable enemy did refer to their own sovereign as a prince.  It would then seem odd that the Valyrians would then use the same word for both princes and dragons.  For example, I doubt they would have referenced Prince Garin as a dragon.

 

On 8/18/2019 at 6:32 PM, corbon said:

Dany seems to be it, with "lightbringer" being the dragons, her "red sword" that was 'drawn' (born from rock) in the pyre in which she burned Drogo. At that time AA/tPrincesstwP was 'born'.

Mel has the clues already. The red sword is not a sword at all. Its the dragons born from stone. Because thats what AA is supposed to do - draw a red sword and birth dragons from stone, apparently the same event in two different passages/translations..

 

On 8/18/2019 at 7:20 PM, Frey family reunion said:

Now if we fast forward to the first reference of the Prince that was Promised prophecy with House Targaryens, we find ourselves in the reign of Aegon V.  Which is notable because in addition to being a descendant of House Targaryen, Aegon V was also descended from two Dornish houses, House Dayne and House Martel.   House Martel in particular was known for carrying on the tradition of their Rhoynish ancestors including the tradition of naming their sovereign a Prince.

So perhaps the Targaryens became convinced that their household was destined to produce the Prince that was Promised, not because of their paternal ancestors but instead because of their maternal ones.

Which might also explain why Rhaegar was married to a Dornish wife, and partly why he became convinced that his half Dornish son Aegon, was the one destined to become the Prince that was Promised.

 

ETA: one other point to consider.  Aemon bemoans their mistake in assuming that TPTWP had to be a Prince, a male.  Now consider the Dorne’s practice of making the first born the head sovereign no matter the gender.  A practice that I believed they carried over from the Rhoynes.  So once again if the Prince that was Promised is an allusion to a head sovereign, a sovereign that can be either male or female, once again the prophecy being one of Rhoynish descent makes the most sense.

 

On 8/19/2019 at 2:43 AM, LynnS said:

This makes a lot of sense to me.  If you look at Doran Martell's investment in marriage contracts to Targs; I keep wondering if the snippet we get from Barristan Selmy about The Prince is really referring to the Prince of Dorne.

 

On 8/19/2019 at 2:43 AM, LynnS said:

it seems to me that Martel thinks that offspring from the line of Martell and Targaryen are key to something.  Perhaps Rhaegar thinks the same thing since he claims that Aegon is the outcome of that prophecy.  Perhaps he was told as much by the GoHH/Woods Witch when he went on his solo visits to Summerhall.  That might explain why he was happiest visiting a place that is connected to tragedy.

So I do see how TPWIP could be a Rhoynish prophecy connected in some way to a messianic prophecy.  So if Mel is right and the pwip is also the one who wakes dragons from stone; that leaves Aegon out.  It also leaves Dany out since she is not the offspring of Dorne/Valyria.  But how can that be if she is the one who wakes dragons from stone? It would mean that she is the offspring of those two bloodlines. 

 

On 8/19/2019 at 8:10 AM, Feather Crystal said:

I agree Daenerys is the great dragon that was awoken from the flames. She was reborn in that funeral pyre. The bleeding comet was seen when Aegon was conceived and seen again when Daenerys was reborn. Opposite ends of the cycle of life and in line with the two sides of the same coin and the undoing of history.

I have been toying with the idea for the last couple months that Daenerys is the third child of Rhaegar and Elia. If tPtwP is a tied to the Rhoynar and House Martell, then this makes more sense to me. Perhaps the "three heads of the dragon" is a Targaryen/Valyrian prophecy that has become conflated with the Rhoynar/Martell prophecy? Rhaegar thought he was tPtwP, but then decided his son, Aegon was. But he still needed a third head and, as Dany see's in her HotUD vision, Elia was aware of that. Even if Rhaegar isn't certain what the "three heads of the dragon are", he might think it means three children of his body, and from his marriage. Elia knows this too, and is willing to give her life to give Rhaegar a third child, which turns out to be Daenerys. Born on Dragonstone to a mother who dies. Elia was told if she had another child, she would die, but I speculate that she felt like it was important enough to give her life for. IF this is an old prophecy tied to HER family, then it kind of falls into place. Both she and Rhaegar had an agenda to their marriage. And as Aemon has seemed to realize, the sex of the "prince" can be female or male.

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3 minutes ago, Feather Crystal said:

Is that how prophecy works?

No one knows how it works exactly. Cue cock biting, swords without handles, etc

3 minutes ago, Feather Crystal said:

IMO a prophecy will come to fruition with or without human help or even interference. A prophecy is a foretelling or prediction of future events, often declared by a prophet, and supposedly divinely inspired.

Yes. But how? Unless the prophecy is not involving humans, some human help or interference is needed.  You can't get a great hero raising dragons from stone or wielding a fiery sword if everyone is just lying in bed thinking "the prophecy will happen on it own anyway". Somewhere, someone, is out there doing stuff, and one of the many people doing stuff turns out to be the prophesied one. They may or may not know about the prophecy, know what they have to do, but unless they are out there doing things, the right things, the prophesied things, then the prophecy can't 'just come to fruition without human help'.
I think what you are saying, perhaps I'm wrong, is that the prophecy will happen with or without conscious, deliberate, human help. I agree.
If it was 'you' then it will turn out that the things you do without conscious knowledge of the prophecy will be the 'right' things anyway. But consciously doing the 'right' things makes it significantly more likely to be you, than not doing the right things.  And possibly (but not necessarily) the only reason that the 'right' things were chosen to be done anyway was, at least in part, conscious choices based on knowledge.

3 minutes ago, Feather Crystal said:

Cersei hates Tyrion, not only for causing their mother's death, but because she believes he's the valonquar. What if it turns out that Jaime is the one that ends up strangling her? The prophecy will come true whether or not it's Jaime, Tyrion, or even some other "younger brother", but trying to circumnavigate the prophecy has caused Cersei to act in self-sabotaging ways.

Yes, but one of them, prophetically inspired (ie knowing what to do in advance) or not, will end up doing it. If one knows the prophecy and sets about trying to achieve it, they improve the odds of it happening and being them. It may or may not be them. In the majority of cases, it won't be. But in one case, it will be.
It certainly won't happen if everyone just lays down and waits for it to happen and does nothing at all out of ennui.

 

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1 hour ago, St Daga said:

Agreed that when Mel is talking of Azor Ahai, Aemon is interpreting and discussing tPtwP. The concept of a sword and a comet seem to tie them together, and a hero (or villain, depending on your view).

Its not the Aemon/Mel interaction where Aemon shows us that tPtwP is the same prophecy as AA. When Aemon finds out about Dany, in Bravos far from Mel, he clearly references tPtwP. Similarly Marwin uses the same reference points when discussing Aemon's beliefs and the Targaryen potenual targets.
Yet the markers they use are the same markers as Mel and Benerro (there are no markers not common to both, though not all passages refer to all of the markers).
ETA: Strikethrough. I guess that there could be markers no common to both, but becasue they are not common to both we don;t identify them as markers. Darkness, for example, couple be an AA marker, but is not mentioned in the PtwP parts. But I don;t think this is strong enough counter evidence, it just means that tPtwP side isn't emphasising the darkness marker. 5 in common though is too many not to be the same prophecy - even if tPtwP is a derivative, stolen/developed by a different civilisation for their own reasons.

Aemon in Bravos about tPtwP:

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On Braavos, it had seemed possible that Aemon might recover. Xhondo's talk of dragons had almost seemed to restore the old man to himself. That night he ate every bite Sam put before him. "No one ever looked for a girl," he said. "It was a prince that was promised, not a princess. Rhaegar, I thought . . . the smoke was from the fire that devoured Summerhall on the day of his birth, the salt from the tears shed for those who died. He shared my belief when he was young, but later he became persuaded that it was his own son who fulfilled the prophecy, for a comet had been seen above King's Landing on the night Aegon was conceived, and Rhaegar was certain the bleeding star had to be a comet. What fools we were, who thought ourselves so wise! The error crept in from the translation. Dragons are neither male nor female, Barth saw the truth of that, but now one and now the other, as changeable as flame. The language misled us all for a thousand years. Daenerys is the one, born amidst salt and smoke. The dragons prove it." Just talking of her seemed to make him stronger. "I must go to her. I must. Would that I was even ten years younger."

Mel's quote of what is written about AA: 

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When the red star bleeds and the darkness gathers, Azor Ahai shall be born again amidst smoke and salt to wake dragons out of stone. 

Marwin:

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He was not a man to be refused. Sam hesitated a moment, then told his tale again as Marywn, Alleras, and the other novice listened. "Maester Aemon believed that Daenerys Targaryen was the fulfillment of a prophecy . . . her, not Stannis, nor Prince Rhaegar, nor the princeling whose head was dashed against the wall." <italics show context is tPtwP>
"Born amidst salt and smoke, beneath a bleeding star. I know the prophecy." Marwyn turned his head and spat a gob of red phlegm onto the floor. "Not that I would trust it. Gorghan of Old Ghis once wrote that a prophecy is like a treacherous woman. She takes your member in her mouth, and you moan with the pleasure of it and think, how sweet, how fine, how good this is . . . and then her teeth snap shut and your moans turn to screams. That is the nature of prophecy, said Gorghan. Prophecy will bite your prick off every time." He chewed a bit. "Still . . ."
Alleras stepped up next to Sam. "Aemon would have gone to her if he had the strength. He wanted us to send a maester to her, to counsel her and protect her and fetch her safely home."

Benerro:

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Haldon nodded. "Benerro has sent forth the word from Volantis. Her coming is the fulfillment of an ancient prophecy. From smoke and salt was she born to make the world anew. She is Azor Ahai returned … and her triumph over darkness will bring a summer that will never end … death itself will bend its knee, and all those who die fighting in her cause shall be reborn …"

Born (1) of smoke (2) and salt (3) with a red star bleeding (4), and dragons (5), are the markers that tie AA to tPtwP. 5 separate markers, out of 5 covered, are too many to not be the same prophecy, independently discussed in 4 separate locations /people/conversations.
Mel+Aemon interacting is extra to this math, not part of it.

 

 

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1 hour ago, St Daga said:

I have been toying with the idea for the last couple months that Daenerys is the third child of Rhaegar and Elia. If tPtwP is a tied to the Rhoynar and House Martell, then this makes more sense to me. Perhaps the "three heads of the dragon" is a Targaryen/Valyrian prophecy that has become conflated with the Rhoynar/Martell prophecy? Rhaegar thought he was tPtwP, but then decided his son, Aegon was. But he still needed a third head and, as Dany see's in her HotUD vision, Elia was aware of that. Even if Rhaegar isn't certain what the "three heads of the dragon are", he might think it means three children of his body, and from his marriage. Elia knows this too, and is willing to give her life to give Rhaegar a third child, which turns out to be Daenerys. Born on Dragonstone to a mother who dies. Elia was told if she had another child, she would die, but I speculate that she felt like it was important enough to give her life for. IF this is an old prophecy tied to HER family, then it kind of falls into place. Both she and Rhaegar had an agenda to their marriage. And as Aemon has seemed to realize, the sex of the "prince" can be female or male.

There's not enough time for Elia to give birth to a third child. Aegon was said to be 10-14 months old when he died. Elia would have to have conceived a third near the end of 282, but would still be pregnant when she died in 283. 

31 minutes ago, corbon said:

Yes, but one of them, prophetically inspired (ie knowing what to do in advance) or not, will end up doing it. If one knows the prophecy and sets about trying to achieve it, they improve the odds of it happening and being them. It may or may not be them. In the majority of cases, it won't be. But in one case, it will be.
It certainly won't happen if everyone just lays down and waits for it to happen and does nothing at all out of ennui.

 

The circumstances would have to present themselves and the people involved would need to react in such a way that the prophecy would manifest. Yes people are out there doing things, but not consciously trying to make a specific detail come true. That's what Melisandre is doing. She made the flaming sword and would like to sacrifice Edric to wake a stone dragon, but going through the motions won't make Stannis Azor Ahai.

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1 hour ago, Feather Crystal said:

The circumstances would have to present themselves and the people involved would need to react in such a way that the prophecy would manifest. Yes people are out there doing things, but not consciously trying to make a specific detail come true.

Well, some of them are consciously trying, or may be. And most (almost all, if not all) of those fail, falling to the bitten cock/handle-less sword syndrome.
But who is to say that the one who 'succeeds' is not one of the 'triers'? No one knows for sure until it happens. 'Trying' will probably not work, but not trying, not taking such opportunities as present themselves, certainly means it won't be you.

Put another way, if you want/hope it to be you, you better get out there doing things in the right direction, because staying in bed is going to lead to the end of the world if it really was supposed to be you.

Put another way, I think prophecies can fail. They are not absolute certainties. You seem to imply that they cannot fail, no matter what anyone does.

1 hour ago, Feather Crystal said:

That's what Melisandre is doing. She made the flaming sword and would like to sacrifice Edric to wake a stone dragon, but going through the motions won't make Stannis Azor Ahai.

I agree absolutely.

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9 hours ago, corbon said:

Cue cock biting, swords without handles, etc

Why would you say something like this.   The business of Jon becoming a sword without a handle (metaphorically) is an old conversation, one that you haven't been party to.  It's not a stretch for anyone here to think the sword could be a dragon or that the sword could be a character.  "I am the sword in the darkness, etc."  The point I was making was specifically about all the references to salt and smoke.  My comment was addressed to Frey Family Reunion.  Someone I've been conversing with for years.

We have beaten the bushes on the prophecies for the umpteenth time and the one new thing I got from this was Frey Family Reunion's Rhoynish connection.  Splendid.

I'm going to move on to something else at this point.

 

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Patchface predicted the Red Wedding.   Are you saying that if he did something specifically to bring it about, and it wouldn't happen if he didn't?

That isn't prophecy, that is an instruction manual.   You may as well prophecized a cake will appear if you mix eggs, sugar and flour and bake it in the oven.

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16 hours ago, corbon said:

You seem to imply that they cannot fail, no matter what anyone does.

Yes, that is actually what I am asserting. The prophecy will manifest no matter what. People can try to make it happen or interfere to try and stop it, but it will still manifest in such a way that all the details will still be there. It may unfold in an unexpected way, but I think the author has demonstrated multiple times how something can be repeated in different ways.

The whole series has an overarching theme of repeated history. I'd be surprised if you hadn't noticed at least a few. A student of Westerosi history might take note of all the repeats and be able to make a reasonable prediction, which actually calls the very nature of prophecy into question. Is it really divinely inspired or is the person proclaiming the prophecy just a learned student?

The "divine" aspect then, if there is such a thing, is what causes these repeats or time loops to occur. There is a wheel of time at play and a few characters have mentioned it. Arianne brings up House Toland of Ghost Hill whose sigil is a dragon eating it's own tail. “The dragon is time. It has no beginning and no ending, so all things come round again. Anders Yronwood is Criston Cole reborn."  

Asha asks her uncle to lend her his history book so she can read about the last kingsmoot, and Rodrik frowns and says “Archmaester Rigney once wrote that history is a wheel, for the nature of man is fundamentally unchanging. What has happened before will perforce happen again.” Rodrik says he thinks about what Rigney said whenever he thinks about Euron and how much he’s like Urron Greyiron, the man that butchered his way to the top at the last kingsmoot.

The mummers version touched on it briefly when they had Daenerys say, “Lannister, Baratheon, Stark, Tyrell, they’re all just spokes on a wheel. This one’s on top and that one’s on top and on and on it spins, crushing those on the ground. We’re not going to stop the wheel. I’m going to break the wheel.” Where would the show writers come up with such a line if not from taking notice of it from the books or from some meeting with GRRM?

Pretty Pig (Some Pig on HoBaW) noted that GRRM is a huge Marvel fanboy, and she's written several essays about various Marvel characters that GRRM seems to have drawn inspiration from. Of all the characters she wrote about, I thought Dr Strange applied to ASOIAF the most. Dr Strange was a surgeon who lost the use of his hands, but became an apprentice to the Sorcerer Supreme - a relationship very much expressed in our story as Bran, who lost the use of his legs by the way, and became Bloodraven's apprentice. Dr Strange's biggest battle was with Dormammu, the Lord of the Realm of Darkness, and his Mindless Ones. Surely the white walkers are Dormammu and the wights are the Mindless Ones? Dr Strange used the Eye of Agamotto to place time in a continual loop in order to defeat Dormammu. Dr Strange could not be killed, because once he was dead the time loop started over again. Bran is the same Brandon throughout history, even if he himself doesn't recall all his previous lives - at least, that is part of the time loop theory!

I believe when the Children of the Forest took pity upon the Last Hero and helped him defeat the Others they locked magic into the Wall, but the side effect of doing so placed all of Westeros into a continual time loop. History began to repeat itself and seasons got out of whack. Bloodraven became a student of history and patterns began to emerge. Over time the wards became aged and worn - and dangerous. The sheer size of the Wall is a physical indication of how dangerous it's becoming to continually hold back magic and nature itself. The plan to right this past wrong began to take place and a huge shift occurred during the tourney at Harrenhal. It was a major shock to the wheel of time - like a massive lightning strike - and the wheel of time got "reset". The shock nearly ripped the door to magic right off it's hinges, and it's why magic began to seep back out into the world.

4 hours ago, Brad Stark said:

Patchface predicted the Red Wedding.   Are you saying that if he did something specifically to bring it about, and it wouldn't happen if he didn't?

Patchface is a prophet and prophets are usually the ones that are inspired to proclaim a prophecy. He did not do anything to bring the prophecy about. He just said what was going to happen, and it did.

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2 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

Patchface is a prophet and prophets are usually the ones that are inspired to proclaim a prophecy. He did not do anything to bring the prophecy about. He just said what was going to happen, and it did.

That was a really good explanation of the wheel.  Coming back to this:

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I don’t think the direwolves initiate the wolf dreams. It’s said that the third eye flutters open when the skinchanger is sleeping. It’s basically an accident. 

I came across this:

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A Dance with Dragons - Jon III

He was walking beneath the shell of the Lord Commander's Tower, past the spot where Ygritte had died in his arms, when Ghost appeared beside him, his warm breath steaming in the cold. In the moonlight, his red eyes glowed like pools of fire. The taste of hot blood filled Jon's mouth, and he knew that Ghost had killed that night. No, he thought. I am a man, not a wolf. He rubbed his mouth with the back of a gloved hand and spat.

Jon is not sleeping here and he's adamant that he is not a wolf.  I'd say Ghost initiated that connection rather than Jon. What does this say about Jon's 3rd eye being open?

I recall that Jojen spends a lot of time exhorting Bran to take control in wolf dreams, telling him to make a conscious decision to mark a tree.  I don't think Rickon has any kind of control at all over his direwolf.  

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On 8/20/2019 at 11:40 AM, Frey family reunion said:

I know, that’s what Aemon comes up with, but it seems like a bit of a stretch to me.  

If you want to set everything else aside and look at the characters who were the most closely “reborn” in salt and smoke, I would look to Davos and Tyrion.

Both had near death experiences at the Battle of the Blackwater, where the salt water bay was set on fire. 

For some reason, their near drowning invokes the Drowned God for me.  I would add Samwell in Braavos and Tyrion at the Bridge of Souls.  And Patchface.

I also came across this passage.  What do you make of it?

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A Feast for Crows - The Prophet

Either the boy could not hear him with his head beneath the waves, or else his faith had utterly deserted him. He began to kick and thrash so wildly that Aeron had to call for help. Four of his drowned men waded out to seize the wretch and hold him underwater. "Lord God who drowned for us," the priest prayed, in a voice as deep as the sea, "let Emmond your servant be reborn from the sea, as you were. Bless him with salt, bless him with stone, bless him with steel."
 
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Something else I came across on my reread...

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A Game of Thrones - Eddard XV

Robert had been jesting with Jon and old Lord Hunter as the prince circled the field after unhorsing Ser Barristan in the final tilt to claim the champion's crown. Ned remembered the moment when all the smiles died, when Prince Rhaegar Targaryen urged his horse past his own wife, the Dornish princess Elia Martell, to lay the queen of beauty's laurel in Lyanna's lap. He could see it still: a crown of winter roses, blue as frost.

Martin only uses this phrase once again:

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A Dance with Dragons - Jon III

Jon Snow did not join the laughter. "Making mock of another man's prayer is fool's work, Pyp. And dangerous."

"If the red god's offended, let him strike me down."

All the smiles had died. "It was the priestess we were laughing at," said Satin, a lithe and pretty youth who had once been a whore in Oldtown. "We were only having a jape, my lord."

"You have your gods and she has hers. Leave her be."

Given the whole tale of the Knight of the Laughing Tree, a champion of the old gods; does this suggest anything about the first event and why the smiles died?

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22 minutes ago, LynnS said:

That was a really good explanation of the wheel.  Coming back to this:

I came across this:

Jon is not sleeping here and he's adamant that he is not a wolf.  I'd say Ghost initiated that connection rather than Jon. What does this say about Jon's 3rd eye being open?

I recall that Jojen spends a lot of time exhorting Bran to take control in wolf dreams, telling him to make a conscious decision to mark a tree.  I don't think Rickon has any kind of control at all over his direwolf.  

Thanks for the props!

A wolf dream is different than Jon's experience tasting hot blood. Shaggydog got fearful and aggressive when Rickon was fearful down in the crypts and bit Maester Luwin. The skinchanger and the host share emotions. This isn't something that is dictated by one end or the other. Part of the skinchanger is in the host animal and visa versa. It's not initiated by either end. It's felt, because they are connected. Wolf dreams on the other hand is a fuller, but passive experience of being inside the host. It occurs when the skinchanger is sleeping and the third eye flutters open. During daylight hours the third eye remains closed unless the skinchanger learns how to open it at will.

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12 minutes ago, LynnS said:

Something else I came across on my reread...

Martin only uses this phrase once again:

Given the whole tale of the Knight of the Laughing Tree, a champion of the old gods; does this suggest anything about the first event and why the smiles died?

I think it's a hint that the gods had a hand in manipulating events during the tourney.

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