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Tyrion1991

Why didn’t Varys kill Tommen?

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Posted (edited)

Currently he’s the incumbent King and the last male heir of Roberts line. After that, it’s Stannis, who is thousands of miles away in the North and deeply unpopular with the Southern Lords. His marriage to Margery is also the only thing keeping the Reach backing House Lannister.

Without Tommen the Lannister’s lose the Stormlands and Reach. So why didn’t Varys, who seems able to come and go as he pleases in the Red Keep not kill Tommen? Why work around this by getting Kevin and Pycelle? Even a child king is better than no King. 

If Tommen goes, you would think this would be the restoration of 1660 with Aegon and he could win all the South over. Even if Cersei is able to convince the Westerlands to keep fighting (without Jamie I can’t see how that could happen realistically) they really would be worse off without Tommen.

The only two reasons I can think is that Varys wants to keep Cersei as Queen Mother and he plans to reconcile the realm by pardoning House Baratheon.

Cersei ceases to be Queen Mother once her infant King dies. This isolates her ability to cause damage to the Lannister cause. Varys wants the anti Targaryens discredited and Cersei will do this.

Also, if Tommen conveniently dies as Aegon arrives everyone will assume her gave the order. This would stain Aegon forever. Perhaps Varys wants to play the long game and reveal the twincest with compelling evidence. On the other hand he may see an act of forgiveness of the Baratheons to be necessary to set the tone for Aegons new rule.

Still, this is a huge risk for Varys. I mean, this is of course assuming that Varys can easily kill Tommen if he wanted to. It could be it is actually quite difficult compared to Kevin and Pycelle. But to do that in the Small Council.

Edited by Tyrion1991

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If Tommen will die, then next in line for Iron Throne is Myrcella, not Stannis. Because daughter is in line of inheritance prior her uncle. Doran Martell will marry Myrcella to Trystane, and will crown her as the Queen of 7K. Then Dornish troops will arrive with newlyweds to King's Landing, and Cersei will be dismissed from her position as a Regent, because Myrcella will be a woman wed, and will belong to her husband, not to her parents. Doran can offer to Tyrells, that he will help them free Margaery, and also to arrange marriage between Willas Tyrell and Arianne Martell, to unite their Houses. Additionally he can offer them to make Loras Lord Commander of Kingsguards, and to Garlan give a place at Small Council. That way Dorne and the Reach will join their forces, and Westerlands will also support Myrcella as the Queen of 7K. The North and the Riverlands are still not over the War of Five Kings, and Stannis is in The North, so those two regions will be to busy with fighting in their own wars (Boltons VS Stannis, Wildlings and Night's Watch VS the Others, Lady Stoneheart VS Freys). The Vale is under Littlefinger's control. He's not going to just give his support to fAegon. That way Varys and Golden Company will have on their side only partial support of Stormlanders, those that they will manage to conquer and submit. fAegon will be unable to get to Iron Throne, if he will have to fight against joined forces of Dorne, the Reach, and Westerlands, even if he will join forces with the Vale (in case if Littlefinger will demand in exchange for his help for fAegon to marry Sansa, and make her the Queen of 7K in the future). By getting rid of Tommen now, while fAegon is still far away from Iron Throne, will be inconvinient for Varys. That way he will only clear for Martells a path to Iron Throne. Though, while Tommen is still the King, Varys can offer to Martells a marriage alliance between fAegon and Arianne, and to promise to make her Queen of 7K. Additionally while Martells keep Myrcella as their guest/hostage, they are protected against Westerlands. And to Tyrells Varys also can offer something equal to Marge's marriage with Tommen (who was just a boy-King, while 7K were ruled by his Regent). fAegon can marry with both Arianne and Margaery, and to have two wives, same as Aegon the Conqueror. To be a second wife of an active King, is better than to be a sole wife of a boy-King, who will have no real power for the next 7 years (until his 16th birthday).

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Because killing Tommen would make the realm even more fucked up than letting Cersei rule it. Ostensibly he's leaving the realm in just bad enough condition that the Targs can come back but not so bad it's fractured forever.

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Cersei as regent serves Varys just fine. He doesn't want a competent ruler right now. That's why Kevan had to die.

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There are no passages in Maegor's Holdfast where Tommen resides most of the time nor is he ever alone. He has no easy access to him unlike anyone else in the Red Keep. 

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Varys only kills Kevan because Aegon has arrived. As an impotent boy king Tommen himself is irrelevant. The important point is that his government cannot make a united or concentrated effort to destroy Aegon.

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Varys doesn't just want to win the IT by force he wants the Lords, Ladies, & Smallfolk alike to want his Aegon as King. Reinstating the Targaryen Dynasty after Aerys II is no easy task, there will be many in the realm wary to ever trust the name Targaryen again. 

But compare upright, handsome, adult Aegon to the child Tommen, rumoured to be a bastard, and torn between his selfish and unstable mother who has no idea of diplomacy or how to rule except through fear and his wife, an older woman rumoured to be sexually experienced; who might use that to manipulate him as he enters adolescence, puppet of her family the up-jumped stewards the Tyrells. 

It suits Varys and Illyrio to have the less than ideal King Tommen on the throne. Likewise as long as he lives Myrcella can not claim the IT, Varys wants Dorne to back fAegon, and will not want Doran to have a more direct route to control of the IT. He is betting on Doran believing that this boy is his Nephew. But if Tommen dies his own Son can sit the IT as King consort to Myrcella. It's a dangerous ploy as sexist Westeros won't easily accept a Queen as ruler. But it is one Varys will be wary of regardless. The longer he keeps Myrcella and Trystane away from the IT the easier it is for him to ensure Doran throws his weight behind fAegon. 

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Though I think that it will be Tyene Sand who kills Tommen, she after all is headed to KL, disguised as a Septa, and she wants vengeance for her father and knows the poisons to use to take the Lannisters claim on the IT away from them. It is easy to presume that with Myrcella wed to Trystane whom she is exceedingly fond of that she will fall under the influence of Dorne quite easily once the crown is on her head.  

Which is why I think Tyene will poison the sacred oils that are used in the ceremony Cersei has asked the High Septon to perform.  This contact poison would bypass Cersei's precautions and take out Tommen and the High Sparrow in one sweep. Placing Myrcella in Varys way, he needs Dorne both for it's Spears and to add weight to the claim that fAegon is Rhaegar and Elia's son.  So I think Varys will smother Myrcella with a silken pillow using the secret passage that Blood & Cheese used to enter the royal bedchambers during the dance.  

Which removes any hopes for Trystane Doran may harbour and places him firmly back in fAegon's camp. 

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21 hours ago, Megorova said:

If Tommen will die, then next in line for Iron Throne is Myrcella, not Stannis. Because daughter is in line of inheritance prior her uncle. Doran Martell will marry Myrcella to Trystane, and will crown her as the Queen of 7K. Then Dornish troops will arrive with newlyweds to King's Landing, and Cersei will be dismissed from her position as a Regent, because Myrcella will be a woman wed, and will belong to her husband, not to her parents. Doran can offer to Tyrells, that he will help them free Margaery, and also to arrange marriage between Willas Tyrell and Arianne Martell, to unite their Houses. Additionally he can offer them to make Loras Lord Commander of Kingsguards, and to Garlan give a place at Small Council. That way Dorne and the Reach will join their forces, and Westerlands will also support Myrcella as the Queen of 7K. The North and the Riverlands are still not over the War of Five Kings, and Stannis is in The North, so those two regions will be to busy with fighting in their own wars (Boltons VS Stannis, Wildlings and Night's Watch VS the Others, Lady Stoneheart VS Freys). The Vale is under Littlefinger's control. He's not going to just give his support to fAegon. That way Varys and Golden Company will have on their side only partial support of Stormlanders, those that they will manage to conquer and submit. fAegon will be unable to get to Iron Throne, if he will have to fight against joined forces of Dorne, the Reach, and Westerlands, even if he will join forces with the Vale (in case if Littlefinger will demand in exchange for his help for fAegon to marry Sansa, and make her the Queen of 7K in the future). By getting rid of Tommen now, while fAegon is still far away from Iron Throne, will be inconvinient for Varys. That way he will only clear for Martells a path to Iron Throne. Though, while Tommen is still the King, Varys can offer to Martells a marriage alliance between fAegon and Arianne, and to promise to make her Queen of 7K. Additionally while Martells keep Myrcella as their guest/hostage, they are protected against Westerlands. And to Tyrells Varys also can offer something equal to Marge's marriage with Tommen (who was just a boy-King, while 7K were ruled by his Regent). fAegon can marry with both Arianne and Margaery, and to have two wives, same as Aegon the Conqueror. To be a second wife of an active King, is better than to be a sole wife of a boy-King, who will have no real power for the next 7 years (until his 16th birthday).

Not bad. The only thing I would add is that poor little Tommen is in a bad way now that two Sand Snakes are heading to King's Landing -- one who is good with knives, the other with poisons.

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How strong Myrcella's claim had been to ugly chair and funny hat if Tommen had died? Or there would have been a possibility that she would have had more support than (fake ?) Aegon.

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On 8/21/2019 at 1:03 PM, Megorova said:

If Tommen will die, then next in line for Iron Throne is Myrcella, not Stannis. Because daughter is in line of inheritance prior her uncle.

The Iron Precedent says that women cannot inherit the throne. On the other hand, the line of inheritance isn't supposed to pass through women even though Robert was in line via his grandmother. I think the risk of bolstering Stannis would be unacceptable to Varys.

On 8/22/2019 at 9:58 AM, The Weirwoods Eyes said:

But compare upright, handsome, adult Aegon to the child Tommen, rumoured to be a bastard, and torn between his selfish and unstable mother who has no idea of diplomacy or how to rule except through fear and his wife, an older woman rumoured to be sexually experienced; who might use that to manipulate him as he enters adolescence, puppet of her family the up-jumped stewards the Tyrells.

Tommen won't have nearly enough time to grow to adolescence prior to the Golden Company's invasion reaching a conclusion.

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Posted (edited)
11 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

.

Tommen won't have nearly enough time to grow to adolescence prior to the Golden Company's invasion reaching a conclusion.

At what point did I say he has? Or don’t you think people would take into account Tommen’s future and possible influences upon him when choosing wether to throw their support behind him?

we might all know that Tommen is doomed to die before he grows a single pube, but in world the other characters have no idea, their choices should be written as if taking his survival as completely plausible. After all if they all assume he’s going to die no one would choose to support him,  and the entire nation should have already abandoned him as a lost cause!

 

Edited by The Weirwoods Eyes

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15 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

The Iron Precedent says that women cannot inherit the throne. On the other hand, the line of inheritance isn't supposed to pass through women even though Robert was in line via his grandmother. I think the risk of bolstering Stannis would be unacceptable to Varys.

The thing is is that Stannis is already 36 years old, and he has only one child, and that child is a girl. Compare him to Ned Stark, who at 36 had five children, three of them boys. It's unlikely, that Stannis will have any more children besides Shireen. So, eventually, after Stannis will die, if he will become the King of 7K, then after him, next ruler of 7K will be his daughter. Thus, if Robert's daughter, Myrcella, is no good, then why would Shireen be accepted as a ruler? Shireen has a greyscale, and her father burned statues of the Seven, and is worshiping a foreign God, and is a kinslayer, and his lover is a witch. It's unlikely that the Great Council and the High Septon will approve someone like Shireen. Stannis, becoming the King, is the same as approving Shireen as the Queen (for the future). And that's not going to happen. Myrcella is at least healthy.

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As said before, Tommen is a suspected bastard, with his crazy mother as his regent...

If Aegon only tooked the throne would be several enemies ready to revolt questioning his legitimacy, his claims are outrageous, a baby that survived the sack of Kings Landing, by being swaped with another, while his older sister remained there. He needs to be seeing as a savior to avoid this kind of trouble later on, and for this to happen the best for him is Cersei on command.

Varys not only killed Kevan and Pycelle, but he plans to blame this on the Tyrells and force Cersei to end this alliance.

"I thought the crossbow fitting. You shared so much with Lord Tywin, why not that? Your niece will think the Tyrells had you murdered, mayhaps with the connivance of the Imp."

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Killing Tommen would ruin any chance of the Tyrells being a part of the royal dynasty and would have the potential of actually unifying the Tyrell and Lannister factions against an external threat and child assassinating faction. 

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7 hours ago, The Weirwoods Eyes said:

At what point did I say he has? Or don’t you think people would take into account Tommen’s future and possible influences upon him when choosing wether to throw their support behind him?

we might all know that Tommen is doomed to die before he grows a single pube, but in world the other characters have no idea, their choices should be written as if taking his survival as completely plausible. After all if they all assume he’s going to die no one would choose to support him,  and the entire nation should have already abandoned him as a lost cause!

 

I'm saying that Margaery's sexual experience is not immediately relevant. If the GC overthrows Tommen, it's a moot point. If they are defeated and Tommen lives long enough to rule in his own right, that will be years from now and he'll be different from the child they know now.

2 hours ago, Megorova said:

The thing is is that Stannis is already 36 years old, and he has only one child, and that child is a girl. Compare him to Ned Stark, who at 36 had five children, three of them boys. It's unlikely, that Stannis will have any more children besides Shireen. So, eventually, after Stannis will die, if he will become the King of 7K, then after him, next ruler of 7K will be his daughter. Thus, if Robert's daughter, Myrcella, is no good, then why would Shireen be accepted as a ruler? Shireen has a greyscale, and her father burned statues of the Seven, and is worshiping a foreign God, and is a kinslayer, and his lover is a witch. It's unlikely that the Great Council and the High Septon will approve someone like Shireen. Stannis, becoming the King, is the same as approving Shireen as the Queen (for the future). And that's not going to happen. Myrcella is at least healthy.

Stannis could live a good while longer and have a male heir. Choosing Stannis over Myrcella permits kicking the can down the road longer without having to raise an adolescent female up to the throne. Once Stannis is king he could even legitimize Edric Storm or another of Robert's bastards if he thought there was a risk of dying without an heir.

Stannis' embrace of R'hllorism does pose a problem for the Faith, I'll agree with you there. I don't think Shireen would necessarily get tarred with that brush though.

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Posted (edited)
16 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

I'm saying that Margaery's sexual experience is not immediately relevant. If the GC overthrows Tommen, it's a moot point. If they are defeated and Tommen lives long enough to rule in his own right, that will be years from now and he'll be different from the child they know now.

This is what you said in response to me pointing out that people will surely take into account those surrounding Tommen and what influence they might have over the boy King. 

“Tommen won't have nearly enough time to grow to adolescence prior to the Golden Company's invasion reaching a conclusion”

 

your response to my perfectly logical reasoning; that people would consider the future when choosing who to support, was to dismiss it as irrelevant - because Tommen will not live long enough for that possibility to occur.

Ie: he’s not going to reach adolescence so her possible manipulation of him does not matter.

You were making a point based upon what you as a reader think to be true regarding tommen.

Where as the point I was making was  about how in world characters ought to be thinking, which is what an author will think about when planning certain aspects of the narrative. 

If this doesn’t make sense to you I recommend Fire and Blood in which GRRM demonstrates exactly this. That Lords think through the possibilities of influence upon a monarch of those surrounding them. 

With regards Rhaenyra and daemon people talk of how if you support her claim it will be him who rules through her because she is his wife. 

And When there are regency’s with underage Kings there is much talk of whose influence he will be under and much back stabbing amongst the Lords to gain influence and positions of power in order to take advantage of the boy King. Men jostle to place their daughters in the post of queen in order to secure that influence long term etc.

suggesting that no one when weighing up which candidate to support will consider the vulnerability of a boy King and the very real and present position of power his older wife and her family  hold over him is absurd. 

 

 

Edited by The Weirwoods Eyes

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