Victorious Renly at SE & Lion's Move?

[nyser1]

Had Renly defeated Stannis at Storm's End, what do you realistically envision happening next? 

 

One thing that I am most curious is what you think Tywin will do/ultimately be willing to do?

[Arthur Peres]

The only military,option, that I see for for Tywin is a ambush on Renly's army.

Renly was in a slow march with a clear destination, making his movements predictable, throwing parties and tournaments on his way.

If GRRM wanted to write a Tywin victory under those circustances, the ambush would go like the night attack fo Vlad III against the turks, but with Tywin having sucess in killing Renly, while Vlad failed to kill Mehmed.

[The hairy bear]

Tywin's best gamble would have been to look for allies, using as much as needed of the money of Casterly Rock. Convince Balon to keep Robb occupied in the North as much time as possible, contract as many mercenary companies as possible, look for the support of one of the free cities, bribe some middle lords (Hightowers, Freys, Boltons, Carons,...) to join his side,...

Or perhaps, just pay a faceless man to murder Renly.

12 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

The only military,option, that I see for for Tywin is a ambush on Renly's army.

I'm not sure if Tywin could have obtained a victory, in those circumstances.

Tywin's army had 20,000 men. 6,000 more if he dared to bring down the gold cloaks, but that would mean to leave King's Landing defenseless with Robb Stark in his rearguard.

Meanwhile, Renly had 70.000 men with him at Bitterbridge. And while he advanced at a low pace while throwing parties and tournaments, it's very hard to believe that they could be taken by surprise. Renly is no fool, and in his army there were seasoned veterans such as Randyll Tarly. Surely Renly's campament was surrounded by outriders and guards at all times.

[James Steller]

Renly was basically overpowered and invincible without the interference of magic. He had the might of two regions of Westeros, one known for its warrior culture, the other for its vast population and access to food production. He had basically won the war once he married Margaery Tyrell.

[Mordant Jester]

On 8/26/2019 at 9:07 AM, James Steller said:

Renly was basically overpowered and invincible without the interference of magic. He had the might of two regions of Westeros, one known for its warrior culture, the other for its vast population and access to food production. He had basically won the war once he married Margaery Tyrell.

I was going to post this.  He would have marched on King's Landing and taken it.   had more than enough force and political clout to roll into the Iron Throne.   In a siege, the people of King's Landing would have likely revolted.   The magic was used and evened the playing field along with Tyrion's slaughter in the Blackwater Bay/river

I dont know what Tywin would do, as we do not see him operate much from a position of disadvantage.  I would say maybe hole up in casterly rock and try to buy free companies, but that would take a long time and who knows if the free companies would agree to cross the sea in order to siege KL.  

The Lannisters were almost friendless at this point in Westeros other than their direct bannermen.  

[Arthur Peres]

6 hours ago, The hairy bear said:

I'm not sure if Tywin could have obtained a victory, in those circumstances.

Tywin's army had 20,000 men. 6,000 more if he dared to bring down the gold cloaks, but that would mean to leave King's Landing defenseless with Robb Stark in his rearguard.

Meanwhile, Renly had 70.000 men with him at Bitterbridge. And while he advanced at a low pace while throwing parties and tournaments, it's very hard to believe that they could be taken by surprise. Renly is no fool, and in his army there were seasoned veterans such as Randyll Tarly. Surely Renly's campament was surrounded by outriders and guards at all times

Openfield battle would be suicide, but a ambush purporse is to allow a smaller force beat a stronger one.

I used the Battle of Targoviste as example because the numbers were similar. Vlad had 30k to 35k and Mehmed had  90k to 100k, and Vlad was still able to beat Mehmed's army, forcing them to retreat.

Renly is in a slow march to KL so is easy to predict his movements, his men are celebrating all along the way so they tend to be more careless, he also letting hedge knights and freeriders join him, so Tywin could infiltrate some spies into his rank and avoid his scouts and surprise them.

Military speaking is probably the only option.  

6 hours ago, The hairy bear said:

Tywin's best gamble would have been to look for allies, using as much as needed of the money of Casterly Rock. Convince Balon to keep Robb occupied in the North as much time as possible, contract as many mercenary companies as possible, look for the support of one of the free cities, bribe some middle lords (Hightowers, Freys, Boltons, Carons,...) to join his side,...

 

Those are diplomatic solutions, and more safer if they can be made in time... I also not sure why would anyone side with the Lannisters against Renly at this point... Tywin needs a victory to show his might and attract more allies, he is coming after 2 major defeats at WW and Oxcross and is badly outnumbered with a lot of enemies gunning for him.

[nyser1]

Thank you for the responses, let's see:

 

22 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

The only military,option, that I see for for Tywin is a ambush on Renly's army.

Renly was in a slow march with a clear destination, making his movements predictable, throwing parties and tournaments on his way.

If GRRM wanted to write a Tywin victory under those circustances, the ambush would go like the night attack fo Vlad III against the turks, but with Tywin having sucess in killing Renly, while Vlad failed to kill Mehmed.

Is it the only military option? At this point, we do not know what Dorne, the Iron Islands, or the Vale will do. Additionally, if Tywin's endgame is to protect his legacy - would he be willing to gamble on one strike where the odds are against him? Particularly with the Stark/Tully host on his flank?

What about him pulling back or South and then back to the Westerlands (pillaging and looting the depleted Southern Riverlands/North & West of the Reach) as he goes back West?

 

 

It is possible that Renly and his followers might be a little less thirsty for blood once they get a taste of it at Storm's End and KL Would Renly, hero of the people, be willing to negotiate with the Lion? Perhaps some debt cancellations in store?

 

9 hours ago, The hairy bear said:

Tywin's best gamble would have been to look for allies, using as much as needed of the money of Casterly Rock. Convince Balon to keep Robb occupied in the North as much time as possible, contract as many mercenary companies as possible, look for the support of one of the free cities, bribe some middle lords (Hightowers, Freys, Boltons, Carons,...) to join his side,...

Or perhaps, just pay a faceless man to murder Renly.

I'm not sure if Tywin could have obtained a victory, in those circumstances.

Tywin's army had 20,000 men. 6,000 more if he dared to bring down the gold cloaks, but that would mean to leave King's Landing defenseless with Robb Stark in his rearguard.

Meanwhile, Renly had 70.000 men with him at Bitterbridge. And while he advanced at a low pace while throwing parties and tournaments, it's very hard to believe that they could be taken by surprise. Renly is no fool, and in his army there were seasoned veterans such as Randyll Tarly. Surely Renly's campament was surrounded by outriders and guards at all times.

Much of this is what I am thinking. There are quite a few unmarried Lannisters, but the six most important ones are not in Tywin's grasp (Jaime, Tyrion, Tyrek, Lancel, Martyn, Wilhelm). Still have Daven and the cousins though.

 

Problem for hiring a faceless man - even if Tywin has and is willing to spend the funds, how is he going to get that message across? The Lannister navy is on the wrong side of the continent, and would have to get through both the Redwyne and Royal fleets. Not to mention time is of the essence. 

[Arthur Peres]

1 hour ago, nyser1 said:

Is it the only military option? At this point, we do not know what Dorne, the Iron Islands, or the Vale will do. Additionally, if Tywin's endgame is to protect his legacy - would he be willing to gamble on one strike where the odds are against him? Particularly with the Stark/Tully host on his flank?

 

I cannot see other, Tywin can't beat Renly in the open field going heads on in a pitched battle.

So I do think that a night ambush would be the best course of action. It is heavy gambling but at this point he needs to roll the dice.

Dorne has more reasons to hate the Lannisters than anyone else, even with a betrothal between Myrcella and Tristan, none of the parts involved thinks will come to fruition. The Vale has ties with the north and riverlands and Lysa public acused the Lannisters of killing Jon Arryn, Kevan even points out that they are expected to be hostile...

“Jaime has left us in a bad way. Roose Bolton and the remnants of his host are north of us. Our enemies hold the Twins and Moat Cailin. Robb Stark sits to the west, so we cannot retreat to Lannisport and the Rock unless we choose to give battle. Jaime is taken, and his army for all purposes has ceased to exist. Thoros of Myr and Beric Dondarrion continue to plague our foraging parties. To our east we have the Arryns, Stannis Baratheon sits on Dragonstone, and in the south Highgarden and Storm’s End are calling their banners.”

The IB are already helping them by attacking the north and this will not help them against Renly.

The only allies the Lannisters can get, like The hairy bear said would be the free cities.

[Back door hodor]

On 8/25/2019 at 2:08 PM, nyser1 said:

Had Renly defeated Stannis at Storm's End, what do you realistically envision happening next? 

 

One thing that I am most curious is what you think Tywin will do/ultimately be willing to do?

Same plan, swap Tyrells for florents and the lords of backwater bay, remember, it was littlefinger that brokered the Tyrell alliance, he could adapt quickly enough. whether the battle and aftermath go similar is highly debatable 

[nyser1]

22 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

I cannot see other, Tywin can't beat Renly in the open field going heads on in a pitched battle.

So I do think that a night ambush would be the best course of action. It is heavy gambling but at this point he needs to roll the dice.

Dorne has more reasons to hate the Lannisters than anyone else, even with a betrothal between Myrcella and Tristan, none of the parts involved thinks will come to fruition. The Vale has ties with the north and riverlands and Lysa public acused the Lannisters of killing Jon Arryn, Kevan even points out that they are expected to be hostile...

“Jaime has left us in a bad way. Roose Bolton and the remnants of his host are north of us. Our enemies hold the Twins and Moat Cailin. Robb Stark sits to the west, so we cannot retreat to Lannisport and the Rock unless we choose to give battle. Jaime is taken, and his army for all purposes has ceased to exist. Thoros of Myr and Beric Dondarrion continue to plague our foraging parties. To our east we have the Arryns, Stannis Baratheon sits on Dragonstone, and in the south Highgarden and Storm’s End are calling their banners.”

The IB are already helping them by attacking the north and this will not help them against Renly.

The only allies the Lannisters can get, like The hairy bear said would be the free cities.

I am inclined to agree (although some people do seem to believe that Stannis could win with a similar army ratio at SE).

What about sending Petyr to the Vale instead of to the Tyrells?

19 hours ago, Back door hodor said:

Same plan, swap Tyrells for florents and the lords of backwater bay, remember, it was littlefinger that brokered the Tyrell alliance, he could adapt quickly enough. whether the battle and aftermath go similar is highly debatable 

I could see something like this happening. More so in a post-Blackwater scenario, where some lords feel like they have not been rewarded adequately/the Tyrells rewarded too well. if Tommen is rescued from Rosby and brought West...

[Arthur Peres]

1 hour ago, nyser1 said:

I am inclined to agree (although some people do seem to believe that Stannis could win with a similar army ratio at SE).

What about sending Petyr to the Vale instead of to the Tyrells?

I don't know how LF would spin things to turn the Vale into the Lannisters side.

Sure he controls Lysa, but she already public acused the Lanninsters of killing Jon Arryn, Tyrion was arming the mountain claims against them and still has a bad blood about Robert naming Jaime as warden of the west, how could LF convince the Vale lords to fight for Joffrey ? I cannot see it happening, if Lysa tries this she will lose her position as regent and in worst case scenario under Yohn Royce as the regent the Vale might join the Starks.

[nyser1]

22 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

I don't know how LF would spin things to turn the Vale into the Lannisters side.

Sure he controls Lysa, but she already public acused the Lanninsters of killing Jon Arryn, Tyrion was arming the mountain claims against them and still has a bad blood about Robert naming Jaime as warden of the west, how could LF convince the Vale lords to fight for Joffrey ? I cannot see it happening, if Lysa tries this she will lose her position as regent and in worst case scenario under Yohn Royce as the regent the Vale might join the Starks.

Lysa is Baelish's control. Nevertheless, unless Tywin gets a further boost I doubt LF would throw in his dice with just the Lannisters. It likely would split the Vale at the this time.

I still think that Balon is bent on a second declaration of independence after Ned died & the Starks moved South. It would be more likely that he would befriend the Lannisters given reputation/location/funding than the Starks or Baratheons. 

Given the size of Lannister forces would remain and their funds, I do not think Tywin simply withers or goes suicidal in his attacks. I think it would be more likely for Tywin to relent in the short term and plan for the family's future than to risk annihilation. 

[Arthur Peres]

1 hour ago, nyser1 said:

 I still think that Balon is bent on a second declaration of independence after Ned died & the Starks moved South. It would be more likely that he would befriend the Lannisters given reputation/location/funding than the Starks or Baratheons. 

 

Sorry, I do not understand your point here, could you elaborate a little more ?

 

1 hour ago, nyser1 said:

Given the size of Lannister forces would remain and their funds, I do not think Tywin simply withers or goes suicidal in his attacks. I think it would be more likely for Tywin to relent in the short term and plan for the family's future than to risk annihilation. 

I agree that he can't sit and wait, and that's why I think he needs to gamble or he will lose everything.

He can't win in a war of attrition, he can't win in a fair open battle, and if he wants a diplomatic solution by seeking new allies he will need a strong hand to show, and enough time to make it work. For thoses reasons he needs a quickly victory to keep the game going, Tywin was made a fool by the Young Wolf, while Renly is strong as ever and has just finished beating a "seasoned men" like Stannis, he needs to show some strenght.

Tywin could also try to frame Renly as a kinslayer, and try to bribe some of the less loyal lords (the ones that changed sides in the canon) to make Renly lose some of his support, but I find it unlikely to work.

[Back door hodor]

On 8/27/2019 at 5:12 PM, nyser1 said:

I am inclined to agree (although some people do seem to believe that Stannis could win with a similar army ratio at SE).

What about sending Petyr to the Vale instead of to the Tyrells?

I could see something like this happening. More so in a post-Blackwater scenario, where some lords feel like they have not been rewarded adequately/the Tyrells rewarded too well. if Tommen is rescued from Rosby and brought West...

Definitely see other reach and storm lords resenting the tyrells position(tbh for all we know some could be in the actual narrative, we literally have know idea what the Hightower's are thinking, doing, or feeling.), and allying with the tyrells puts the IT at odds with Dorne(at least on paper, I personally think Willas and Oberyn/Doran may be cooking something up, but its completely unsubstantiated.) So yea a lot of things could happen 

[Corvo the Crow]

Honestly, against Robb he was roughly evenly positioned. It is Renly and to a lesser, much lesser degree Stannis that he can’t hope to figh against. 

Roose’s army is far away. Robb has 6000 men plus whatever knights freed from Jaime’s camp. 

He could have left a decent sized force of low thousands in Harrenhal to prevent Roose from crossing easily and also delay him if he crosses by forcing him to take Harrenhal to secure his flank, if he is ever able to cross. Tywin had 4000 men in Golden Tooth. He should have just marched on Riverrun with whatever men he didn’t leave at Harrenhal and men from Tooth. Robb can’t give open battle with just horses and has no place to go but Reach or Twins and Seagard. Riverrun is besieged again and he’s linked up with his reinforcements.

Renly is with 80000, nothing can be done.

Stannis has 3000 men including mercenary companies and a huge fleet. There are supporters of him in the city and some gold cloaks would surely have turned. He could not have hold the city but could have taken it, we have seen something similar in Dance. 

What is Tywin to do if Stannis attacks the city unannounced and takes Cersei, her kids and as much wealth as he can carry? He should have taken them out of the city under disguise with some gold as well.

[nyser1]

22 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

Sorry, I do not understand your point here, could you elaborate a little more ?

 

I agree that he can't sit and wait, and that's why I think he needs to gamble or he will lose everything.

He can't win in a war of attrition, he can't win in a fair open battle, and if he wants a diplomatic solution by seeking new allies he will need a strong hand to show, and enough time to make it work. For thoses reasons he needs a quickly victory to keep the game going, Tywin was made a fool by the Young Wolf, while Renly is strong as ever and has just finished beating a "seasoned men" like Stannis, he needs to show some strenght.

Tywin could also try to frame Renly as a kinslayer, and try to bribe some of the less loyal lords (the ones that changed sides in the canon) to make Renly lose some of his support, but I find it unlikely to work.

Surely. For the first part, I gathered that Balon was preparing for war once Robert and Ned died (he diid have his fleet rebuilt after all). Given that we hear Stark and Baratheon most often when hearing about the rebellion, I would think that there would be more resentment there. Plus Ned took his only remaining son, and we learn how he felt about that. With those three mainland families contesting for the throne & Balon prepping for war, perhaps allying was the the side he is least hostile towards is an option. Plus the Lannisters have the gold and interest to make use of a Navy.

 

Stannis would be dead in this scenario, so Renly takes the capital. It is likely that Pycelle survives & therefore we have at least one Lannister mole in the capital (who in theory could help orchestrate political maneuvers). While I do not think it is likely that Tywin would prevail, I do think that there is the possibility of a combination of his intelligence, wealth, reputation, and commitment to Lannister legacy that might get the family to survive.

18 hours ago, Back door hodor said:

Definitely see other reach and storm lords resenting the tyrells position(tbh for all we know some could be in the actual narrative, we literally have know idea what the Hightower's are thinking, doing, or feeling.), and allying with the tyrells puts the IT at odds with Dorne(at least on paper, I personally think Willas and Oberyn/Doran may be cooking something up, but its completely unsubstantiated.) So yea a lot of things could happen 

Who do you think is most likely to turn (aside from the Florents)?

 

7 hours ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Honestly, against Robb he was roughly evenly positioned. It is Renly and to a lesser, much lesser degree Stannis that he can’t hope to figh against. 

Roose’s army is far away. Robb has 6000 men plus whatever knights freed from Jaime’s camp. 

He could have left a decent sized force of low thousands in Harrenhal to prevent Roose from crossing easily and also delay him if he crosses by forcing him to take Harrenhal to secure his flank, if he is ever able to cross. Tywin had 4000 men in Golden Tooth. He should have just marched on Riverrun with whatever men he didn’t leave at Harrenhal and men from Tooth. Robb can’t give open battle with just horses and has no place to go but Reach or Twins and Seagard. Riverrun is besieged again and he’s linked up with his reinforcements.

Renly is with 80000, nothing can be done.

Stannis has 3000 men including mercenary companies and a huge fleet. There are supporters of him in the city and some gold cloaks would surely have turned. He could not have hold the city but could have taken it, we have seen something similar in Dance. 

What is Tywin to do if Stannis attacks the city unannounced and takes Cersei, her kids and as much wealth as he can carry? He should have taken them out of the city under disguise with some gold as well.

Stannis would be dead here, along with however many of Renly's he takes with him. Would Stannis' sellswords stay with Renly? That is a nice debt for the new king to add to the old debts as well.

 

If Tywin gets back West without encountering the Tully or Bolton-led forces, Robb would be outnumbered in hostile land. Advantage to Tywin?

[RYShh]

Lannisters were so lucky, which is why that never happened.

Lannisters would've no chance against Renly + Robb at the same time, plus Dorne has grudge against the Lannisters, and knowing LF, he could try to break the alliance between Renly and Robb later, by convincing the Arryns and the knights of the Vale to join Robb but I don't see that's happening as well. Since Robb's main motive was killing Joffrey and independence of the north, perhaps LF could plot another game and try to convince Robb to take full independence of the North from Renly, but that's a long game, first job was Lannisters.

Tywin would retreat to Casterly Rock once he is realized that he has no chance against Renly's army + Robb's battle hardened northern army which is also holding Jaime as a prisoner at the time.

Tywin is also a clever man, there would never be a peace without Joffrey and Tommen dying, so he wouldn't try to smugle them outside of the city, since even if he gets them safely to Casterly Rock, Renly or Robb would siege the castle for Joffrey's head especially, and Renly definitely wouldn't allow Tommen to live, which is why Tywin had no choice but to leave Queen and her children there, he would at least try to negotiate for Jaime's life by surrendering his forces.

Tywin could try to search allies but who can help him? Ironborn can't be trusted, especially when Robb wasn't outnumbered against the Lannisters, the Freys and the Boltons wouldn't betray him for Lannisters, and there isn't much Tywin can do in that bad situation. 

LF was holding Lysa and the knights of the vale from helping Robb in the war, but persuading them to help Lannisters would be a stretch, since Lysa is Cateleyn's and Edmure's sister, even though she is crazy enough to do anything for LF, I doubt she could openly side with Lannisters against her own family due to political reasons.

In any scenario, if Renly won, Lannisters would be dead. 

[Arthur Peres]

31 minutes ago, nyser1 said:

Surely. For the first part, I gathered that Balon was preparing for war once Robert and Ned died (he diid have his fleet rebuilt after all). Given that we hear Stark and Baratheon most often when hearing about the rebellion, I would think that there would be more resentment there. Plus Ned took his only remaining son, and we learn how he felt about that. With those three mainland families contesting for the throne & Balon prepping for war, perhaps allying was the the side he is least hostile towards is an option. Plus the Lannisters have the gold and interest to make use of a Navy.

 

I think Balon only started to think about rebelling again after Robert death, and realizing that the realm was split. I mean, even Balon must have noticed that he couldn't win against the realm combined.

A formal alliance with the Lannisters is unlikely, he is rebelling against their rule after all, and he is already fully commited to the war against the north, so I do not see he being usefull for Tywin. They should be content that he is attacking the Starks and pray that this bring Robb back north and give them room to deal with Renly somehow.

37 minutes ago, nyser1 said:

Stannis would be dead in this scenario, so Renly takes the capital. It is likely that Pycelle survives & therefore we have at least one Lannister mole in the capital (who in theory could help orchestrate political maneuvers). While I do not think it is likely that Tywin would prevail, I do think that there is the possibility of a combination of his intelligence, wealth, reputation, and commitment to Lannister legacy that might get the family to survive.

I see Pycelle more as oportunistic snake than a Lannister supporter, he stayed on Cersei side againt Tyrion even though she was doing more harm than being helpfull. Renly would also have to fufill his promises to his lords, so he will probably replace everyone in the main positions at the court. If Pycelle remains for some reason I do not see him staying on the Lannister side, he would be too isolated to move anything. Renly also cannot let Cersei's children alive, they are too much of threat to him.

 

 

[Arthur Peres]

49 minutes ago, nyser1 said:

Who do you think is most likely to turn (aside from the Florents)?

 

The lords that sided with Stannis right after Renly's death, most likely.

Florents, Mullendore, Crane, and both branchs of Fossoway comes to my mind now. Could be others.

[Back door hodor]

4 hours ago, nyser1 said:

 

Who do you think is most likely to turn (aside from the Florents)?

I was thinking more the storm lords and the lords of blackwater bay than the reach lords here,(although maybe little finger and Tywin pull off a the big one and secure a Hightower alliance, which seems unlikely) House Velaryron would still have pretty much all of thier strength at sea even after a Stannis lose at Storms End, get them and Celtigar and Bar Emmon most likely follow and all of a sudden Kings Landing is pretty much inasscesable by sea, preventing the battle of the Blackwater from unfolding as we know it.

We really don't have any stormlander POVs or main characters so we cant really say for sure what they would do, probably follow Renly but if given a good enough offer who knows? Maybe Tywin finds a disgruntled old guard supporter of Renlys to pull something similar to the Red wedding on Renly. Cant really pick a specific house from there though, not enough info.

The Velaryons is both possible, as they are former targ loyalists and not directly tied to Stannis. and provides a strategic advantage though, so that's the best option.