Aussies: NSW Politicians, keeping ICAC in business

[Paxter]

2 minutes ago, Impmk2 said:

Downtick is mostly due to the lockdown on arrivals. But yeah, if we can keep the community transmission under control it's looking good. Not sure where you're getting 100 cases / day yesterday though. The official figures across all the states were 302 for the 1st. Still, seems to be steadily tracking downwards.

Ah sorry, I was looking at NSW only. But even 300/day is good going compared to most other Western countries. 

[Jeor]

Yes, Australia's numbers look good but that's mainly due to the border controls, so some people in the media who are saying we're getting control over it are maybe a little premature. However, the high rate of testing we have is helping us keep track of things and, hopefully, keep the community transmission at manageable levels.

However, apparently today community transmission started ticking up in Victoria. If it gets out of the box it'll be hard to stop...latest news reports show that there are a large number of asymptomatic carriers which may be the reason for why this is so highly contagious. It might also explain why some Asian countries with the "everyone wears a mask" culture have done better...if there are a pool of asymptomatic carriers, then everyone wearing a mask would definitely help.

I'm limping towards the end of the school term and can't wait for these holidays for a break, even if they're crappy house arrest-style holidays.

[The Drunkard]

A clear message to people over east: if you're not a Western Australian and you want to come to Western Australia, don't come. We don't want you.

Bit severe from the Premier but I have to agree with Mark McGowan. Also it will probably help with the coronovirus. 

[Paxter]

5 hours ago, Jeor said:

Yes, Australia's numbers look good but that's mainly due to the border controls, so some people in the media who are saying we're getting control over it are maybe a little premature. However, the high rate of testing we have is helping us keep track of things and, hopefully, keep the community transmission at manageable levels.

However, apparently today community transmission started ticking up in Victoria. If it gets out of the box it'll be hard to stop...latest news reports show that there are a large number of asymptomatic carriers which may be the reason for why this is so highly contagious. It might also explain why some Asian countries with the "everyone wears a mask" culture have done better...if there are a pool of asymptomatic carriers, then everyone wearing a mask would definitely help.

I'm limping towards the end of the school term and can't wait for these holidays for a break, even if they're crappy house arrest-style holidays.

I'm not convinced about the masks personally (though of course I'm no expert!) I think the success (hitherto) of countries like Japan, S Korea, Taiwan is more down to:

• Taking the virus very seriously from the get go (c.f. USA)
• Rapidly rolling out testing and "seek and isolate" programs
• Having populations that are respectful of social distancing rules

3 hours ago, The Drunkard said:

Bit severe from the Premier but I have to agree with Mark McGowan. Also it will probably help with the coronovirus. 

Haha. That will go down well in WA. There is nothing West Aussies like more than creating a clear divide with the "Eastern States". 

[Paxter]

Maybe slightly lost in the current news environment but: we are about to (finally) see an end to the Pell legal battle. I have been very conflicted on this case from the beginning and, whichever way the HCA goes, I'm not sure I'll ever feel great about it.

On the one hand I have a very strong sense of pride that Australia is one of only a select few jurisdictions to prosecute a high-ranking cleric for child sex offences. It shows that nobody is above the law in this country, even when they are in the Pope's inner circle and can get character references from ex-PMs. I'm also pleased that the Court revoked his bail and didn't allow house arrest or any other arrangement. He's been in jail for over a year now and I am not aware that he has received better treatment than any other convicted sex offender.

On the other hand, there is a reason why we had a dissenting judgement at the Victorian Court of Appeal. There are undoubtedly a few issues with the Crown's case. And I want our justice system to be completely and utterly free from bias (at least insofar as this is ever possible!) So let's see what the Full Bench of the HCA says. 

[Sharpes]

There was a good article on Four Corners on monday about our response to the virus. Worth checking out, although it probably won't come as much as a surprise if you've been following the covid thread.

 

[Jeor]

So a bloody water pipe burst in my apartment and my kitchen and lounge were flooded.

Insurance has come in to remove the carpet, rip out the kitchen fixtures, and then installed huge fans and dehumidifiers to dry out the place, but now I'm in my apartment that sounds like working inside a 747 (noise-cancelling headphones are keeping me sane) and with a half-functioning kitchen (no water, but power at least) and a bare concrete floor. It's going to be impossible to get the kitchen fixed in a timely way - most companies have stood down their staff because of Covid

My two bedrooms and bathroom at least were spared, so that's something at least.

There hasn't been a run on bottled water, from what I easily acquired at the supermarket.

All that aside, I'll cope - there's plenty of people in worse situations, but still a pain in the neck.

[karaddin]

Yeah, with the timing on that I think you're more than entitled to vent about it. That really sucks and I hope things get fixed faster than you expect.

[Paxter]

Urgh that is shitty @Jeor. Hope you get something of a kitchen/lounge upgrade out of it!

[maarsen]

6 hours ago, Jeor said:

So a bloody water pipe burst in my apartment and my kitchen and lounge were flooded.

Insurance has come in to remove the carpet, rip out the kitchen fixtures, and then installed huge fans and dehumidifiers to dry out the place, but now I'm in my apartment that sounds like working inside a 747 (noise-cancelling headphones are keeping me sane) and with a half-functioning kitchen (no water, but power at least) and a bare concrete floor. It's going to be impossible to get the kitchen fixed in a timely way - most companies have stood down their staff because of Covid

My two bedrooms and bathroom at least were spared, so that's something at least.

There hasn't been a run on bottled water, from what I easily acquired at the supermarket.

All that aside, I'll cope - there's plenty of people in worse situations, but still a pain in the neck.

Here in Canada pipes burst due to freezing in winter. How did yours go? 

[Jeor]

7 hours ago, maarsen said:

Here in Canada pipes burst due to freezing in winter. How did yours go? 

Waiting on the report from the plumber. He reckons one of the connections just gave way and it was the equivalent of turning on a tap on full blast and pointing it at my kitchen floor. Thanks @Paxter and @karaddin - yes I'm hoping the silver lining on this is that I'm going to get a new kitchen and carpet for free, but it'll take some time.

It's a bit weird figuring out whether construction/renovation companies are still in business. The insurance guys who came in to remove things said that they still had plenty of work. The next issue is going to be having to stay home over these school holidays while all sorts of construction is going on inside my place (assuming I can get people in that quickly, which may not be the case).

[Paxter]

And there it is. The HCA quashes the decisions of the inferior courts and releases Pell.

I’m not at all surprised given what happened on appeal.

[Jeor]

1 hour ago, Paxter said:

And there it is. The HCA quashes the decisions of the inferior courts and releases Pell.

I’m not at all surprised given what happened on appeal.

Yes. I feel for all victims of child abuse, many of whom will be bitterly disappointed and feel hurt by this.

But at the same time, there were issues with the trial. Some major features of the case leading up to this final High Court decision (the first initial trial was a hung jury who couldn't decide, and after conviction when it went to appeal there was a dissenting judge) were signals that getting the conviction to hold was always going to be a bit shaky.

 

[karaddin]

I wish the indigenous people locked up for unpaid fines of under $1000 had access to the same judicial system that bends over backwards to give multiple chances to a pedophile.

Ignoring whether the decision was correct or not, we all know it only got there because he's a powerful man with powerful friends and this "justice" is not available to everyone.

[Paxter]

23 minutes ago, karaddin said:

I wish the indigenous people locked up for unpaid fines of under $1000 had access to the same judicial system that bends over backwards to give multiple chances to a pedophile.

Ignoring whether the decision was correct or not, we all know it only got there because he's a powerful man with powerful friends and this "justice" is not available to everyone.

Possibly. On the facts of the case, he might not have been prosecuted at all if he’d been a run-of-the-mill cleric. You could argue that his status worked against rather than for him, at least in some respects.

Anyway, he got a year in jail of the minimum three and a bit sentenced. He was still convicted by a jury of his peers. And it’s the end of his career in the Vatican. It’s not nothing. It’s certainly a lot more than other jurisdictions have managed.

[Paxter]

So I’ve swung back the other way on the Government’s response to this crisis. Looking at Canada’s numbers...we would be extremely happy with around 50 new cases per day! We are getting 400+ just in Ontario.

Obviously Australia is headed for a recession along with the rest of the rich world, but it is as primed for a bounce back as any country. 

[ithanos]

Looks like we're about to get a boost in cases from the repatriation of the Greg Mortimer cruise ship from Uruguay. 96 citizens, and since 128 of the 217 passengers, crew and staff have tested positive for Covid-19, they will all be treated as Covid positive as a precautionary measure. Should also mention that 16 New Zealanders on the same cruise are coming back with the Aussies to Melbourne, and then directly onto a flight to Auckland and presumably quarantine.

On a local note, a stunningly beautiful Autumn day here in Sydney. Going to be tough for some people not to venture outdoors unnecessariy but lets hope.  

      

[Jeor]

It's actually going to put the state and federal governments in a really difficult position.

Given the numbers which are actually very good, showing that Australia has got the situation more or less under control, public opinion is gradually going to shift towards the "All right, we've done our bit, now let's get things opened back up again". If the situation had been worse, people would have accepted longer shutdowns but in the next few weeks I think the community sentiment is going to start changing.

Of course, the problem is that a second wave is likely to hit as soon as we open up again. So from a health perspective it's likely to be "let's keep it going as it is" but you rarely win points with the public for preventing a disaster because no one sees what they would have been like. Paradoxically, a successful shutdown was always going to mean that it went on longer than a shutdown where lots of people were still infected.

New Zealand are in a similar situation. They're probably quite close to stamping the thing out entirely, but unless they hermetically seal their borders, they run the risk of flare-ups. Probably their best bet is to do the complete lockdown for another month or two until all the cases are definitely gone, and then absolutely don't let anyone in the country, and don't let New Zealanders travel for the next 12-18 months until a vaccine is found. It's a difficult path to take.

[ithanos]

2 hours ago, Jeor said:

It's actually going to put the state and federal governments in a really difficult position.

Given the numbers which are actually very good, showing that Australia has got the situation more or less under control, public opinion is gradually going to shift towards the "All right, we've done our bit, now let's get things opened back up again". If the situation had been worse, people would have accepted longer shutdowns but in the next few weeks I think the community sentiment is going to start changing.

Of course, the problem is that a second wave is likely to hit as soon as we open up again. So from a health perspective it's likely to be "let's keep it going as it is" but you rarely win points with the public for preventing a disaster because no one sees what they would have been like. Paradoxically, a successful shutdown was always going to mean that it went on longer than a shutdown where lots of people were still infected.

I fear there will always be a section of the public who will see the low rates and think it all overblown. There would be no recognition that any reduction in case numbers and fatalities is at all attributed to collective action at the population level. For the most part, people don't live next to a major hospital or retirement home - out of sight is out of mind.

Quote

New Zealand are in a similar situation. They're probably quite close to stamping the thing out entirely, but unless they hermetically seal their borders, they run the risk of flare-ups. Probably their best bet is to do the complete lockdown for another month or two until all the cases are definitely gone, and then absolutely don't let anyone in the country, and don't let New Zealanders travel for the next 12-18 months until a vaccine is found. It's a difficult path to take.

That's most likely the plan for NZ. The level 4 lockdown there could fall back to a level 3 lockdown in 2 weeks' time. But this would be a complete waste if they don't also enforce automatic quarantine for all incoming travellers. They can do this now because the influx numbers have fallen below the quaratine capacity the NZ Gov't have arranged with the hotels near the major ports of entry. 

 

Btw, sorry to hear of your aquatic issues earlier, hope all is good now!

[Jeor]

3 hours ago, ithanos said:

Btw, sorry to hear of your aquatic issues earlier, hope all is good now!

Thanks! The dehumidifiers and fans are out of the place so thankfully I can hear myself now. I've got water back and all systems go, just got to deal with a concrete floor in the lounge and kitchen area, which in the grand scheme of things is not the worst thing in the world. I have a feeling getting carpeters and kitchen flooring is going to take a while in this environment.

3 hours ago, ithanos said:

That's most likely the plan for NZ. The level 4 lockdown there could fall back to a level 3 lockdown in 2 weeks' time. But this would be a complete waste if they don't also enforce automatic quarantine for all incoming travellers. They can do this now because the influx numbers have fallen below the quaratine capacity the NZ Gov't have arranged with the hotels near the major ports of entry.

Once they stop all the local cases, NZ basically have to call a complete halt to anyone going in or out of the country, and that could last over a year. They could become a literal island sanctuary.