Aussies: NSW Politicians, keeping ICAC in business

[Paxter]

7 hours ago, Jeor said:

The government still does have a lot of fiscal firepower with low debt but they're going to have to target it well. And they're going to have to lean on the Big Four banks to take it easy on small businesses who won't be able to pay back their loans.

Yes, somewhat ironically, the banking sector could be a source of strength in the early stages of this crisis. They are pretty well capitalised, so some of that capital can now be used to absorb credit losses from critical sectors (e.g. small businesses). The trouble for the banks will be if their (gigantic) mortgage portfolios are stressed by unemployment as the crisis wears on. 

[Jeor]

On the whole we're pretty fortunate in Australia compared to the rest of the world.

• Our financial system is generally quite stable and our banks are some of the strongest in the world in terms of working capital.
• Geographically we are relatively isolated and have control over our borders.
• Food security is good as we are net producers. By virtue of being an island nation we are actually self-sufficient on a number of key utilities.
• The healthcare system, though with its faults and underfunding, is in good shape compared to other systems around the world (cough cough USA cough cough).
• We seem to have a government that can be agile when needed and coordinate with state authorities. Places like the US would be a mess of government coordination and action.
• The federal government is in a decent debt position and has room to spend.

Now unemployment will rise and there will be lots of suffering, no doubt about that. But I think in Australia we've got as good a chance as any (except maybe places like Singapore that are ahead of us and seem to have dealt with things even better) to get through this.

[Paxter]

Hmmm...I'm probably not as sanguine as you Jeor. I think the Government's performance in this crisis has been OK, but they aren't going as far yet as some of the SARS-affected countries, or even other western countries like Canada.

We have been in a full lockdown for a while now, despite having around the same number of confirmed cases as Australia. And Canada has a similar profile in terms of health care, banking and budget wiggle-room. The comparative numbers from around the end of next week onwards (after the incubation period) will be interesting. 

[Paxter]

An annoying minor thing - but why are we still playing footy? I know that sport is important to us...but putting $ ahead of player safety is not the way to go. There is a good reason most other codes around the world have suspended play. 

[Jeor]

42 minutes ago, Paxter said:

An annoying minor thing - but why are we still playing footy? I know that sport is important to us...but putting $ ahead of player safety is not the way to go. There is a good reason most other codes around the world have suspended play. 

Yes, the AFL is making a ridiculous decision to keep going. All it takes is one player to get sick and then the whole league will be in jeopardy anyway. It's not going to work. I know the clubs are facing an existential crisis, but forcing play to go on is not the way to solve it.

9 hours ago, Paxter said:

Hmmm...I'm probably not as sanguine as you Jeor. I think the Government's performance in this crisis has been OK, but they aren't going as far yet as some of the SARS-affected countries, or even other western countries like Canada.

The hot topic and main differentiator in Australia is the lack of a school shutdown. I still think the government will cave on that eventually, it's more a matter of when.

[Paxter]

Qantas has now grounded its entire international fleet. I basically just have to hope that my family stays healthy now - it’s going to be tough to get back to Perth in the next couple of months, even in a life or death scenario.

[Jeor]

I wonder if the Qantas grounding is the prelude to a complete closing of the airports. Both Virgin and Qantas are now out of action, so it's only international airlines that will be flying routes in and out of the country.

[The Drunkard]

Someone on night shift nicked a large thing of hand sanitizer from work this week when everyone else was out of the office. 

It was very entertaining and gave me a sense of high school deja vu when I came in the next day and watched the superintendent give a roomful of grizzled old labourers a stern talking to, mentioning how disappointed he was in the culprit and how no questions will be asked if they did the right thing and returned it.

Weird times.

[Jeor]

It does sound like something out of high school!

Speaking of high schools, as I've kept on saying previously, I think schools are going to reach breaking point soon.

The staff at my school are almost at the point of open revolt. One teacher in his 60s griped to me today - "politicians keep on saying school is the safest place for kids, and young people don't get it and aren't at risk, and that there will be huge disruption to the rest of the workforce if schools close. But neither of those arguments has anything to do with the safety of older teachers - they don't care about us at all." The cynic in him assumed that teachers were being sacrificed for the economy. They're not even your own kids either.

Already we're seeing some older staff members calling in sick and more or less refusing to come to school, and I don't think I can blame them. If the government doesn't close schools, at some point there will be a teachers' strike.

[Fragile Bird]

On 3/18/2020 at 8:54 AM, Paxter said:

 

We have been in a full lockdown for a while now, despite having around the same number of confirmed cases as Australia. And Canada has a similar profile in terms of health care, banking and budget wiggle-room. The comparative numbers from around the end of next week onwards (after the incubation period) will be interesting. 

I constantly check the Worldometers tracking site and I see that right now Australia has passed Canada, 876 to 873, but that's because Australia's end of day report has been posted and ours hasn't yet. 

eta 923, 50 new cases

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/?fbclid=IwAR2WhtIvODVjwxZEszArsVM0ypi0ZJvQ3SVjdnjuyl9ViV2IZPnIdKS5rto

[Paxter]

Just to build on something I said earlier...I actually think now that Australia has got their overall response quite wrong. The Government has taken the middle road between two extremes and I think they have erred too far towards #2. 

1. Shutting the country down as early as possible, causing massive economic pain, but giving the health care system the best possible chance of coping. If after a month or so things are under control, then you could at this point start to relax certain policy settings (while monitoring the transmission rate very carefully!)
2. Keep things open as much as possible, mitigating the economic pain, but effectively playing Russian Roulette with people's lives and risking an Italy (or worse)-style situation. 

 

[Paxter]

1 hour ago, Fragile Bird said:

I constantly check the Worldometers tracking site and I see that right now Australia has passed Canada, 876 to 873, but that's because Australia's end of day report has been posted and ours hasn't yet. 

eta 923, 50 new cases

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/?fbclid=IwAR2WhtIvODVjwxZEszArsVM0ypi0ZJvQ3SVjdnjuyl9ViV2IZPnIdKS5rto

Yeah I think we are still weeks away from being able to tell whether the public health impact is going to be similar or different across these two (reasonably) similar countries. 

[Jeor]

5 hours ago, Paxter said:

Just to build on something I said earlier...I actually think now that Australia has got their overall response quite wrong. The Government has taken the middle road between two extremes and I think they have erred too far towards #2. 

1. Shutting the country down as early as possible, causing massive economic pain, but giving the health care system the best possible chance of coping. If after a month or so things are under control, then you could at this point start to relax certain policy settings (while monitoring the transmission rate very carefully!)
2. Keep things open as much as possible, mitigating the economic pain, but effectively playing Russian Roulette with people's lives and risking an Italy (or worse)-style situation. 

 

Australia has bought itself a bit more time than other nations (particularly Europe and the USA) by closing its borders. The border issue artificially makes it look like we're dealing with it better than other countries, but all it's doing is delaying it; once community transmission takes hold (as it is starting to do) then that advantage disappears.

I'm concerned that we are now reaching the inflection point where the time that closing the borders has bought us is running out and we'll soon become just like everyone else. I think we won't be as dire as Italy, but the track record in Western democracies is not looking good with controlling this thing.

EDIT: The photos of a crowded Bondi Beach show that Australians are going to be terrible at following a lockdown, but paradoxically, it also shows how badly we need one if people aren't following the current guidelines.

[Paxter]

1 minute ago, Jeor said:

Australia has bought itself a bit more time than other nations (particularly Europe and the USA) by closing its borders. The border issue artificially makes it look like we're dealing with it better than other countries, but all it's doing is delaying it; once community transmission takes hold (as it is starting to do) then that advantage disappears.

I'm concerned that we are now reaching the inflection point where the time that closing the borders has bought us is running out and we'll soon become just like everyone else. I think we won't be as dire as Italy, but the track record in Western democracies is not looking good with controlling this thing.

Personally I’m not convinced that the Australian border closure happened anywhere near early enough to create a clear advantage vis a vis northern hemisphere countries. And Australians are still returning home now in large numbers (the latest being a cruise ship). Plus Australia is now lagging the world on social distancing by keeping businesses trading. 

[Fragile Bird]

I just realized Australia has 25 M people while we have 37 M. You guys are ahead of us.

[Paxter]

1 minute ago, Fragile Bird said:

I just realized Australia has 25 M people while we have 37 M. You guys are ahead of us.

Lol. Indeed.

[Impmk2]

Worth mentioning the numbers at this stage may be a result of relative testing levels - Australia has tested at a higher rate per capita than Canada. I'm actually pleasantly surprised at how we're doing on that front relative to other countries.

[Fragile Bird]

Our numbers are going to go up now. Apparently the jump last week reflected travelers returning from vacation, mainly the US. With the borders closing we will see another big jump. Normally about 300,000 ‘snowbirds’ go south for months. 

[Jeor]

Yes, I think it's pretty clear the US is a big exporter of the virus now.

Australia is now well behind almost all other Western democracies in terms of shutting non-essential businesses and schools, and imposing curfews. We've done none of those things, but I think at some point we will start seeing them happening.

I'm planning to get takeaway a fair few times in the next week as I'm not convinced restaurants will remain open for much longer. I can rely on my own substandard cooking later...

[karaddin]

1 hour ago, Paxter said:

Personally I’m not convinced that the Australian border closure happened anywhere near early enough to create a clear advantage vis a vis northern hemisphere countries. And Australians are still returning home now in large numbers (the latest being a cruise ship). Plus Australia is now lagging the world on social distancing by keeping businesses trading. 

I feel like the border closure needed to come with a major lockdown. If you close the borders and at the same time shutdown schools and public gatherings you may be able to contain community transmission. I'm not really understanding the point of the border closure if we aren't taking those measures though.

1 hour ago, Impmk2 said:

Worth mentioning the numbers at this stage may be a result of relative testing levels - Australia has tested at a higher rate per capita than Canada. I'm actually pleasantly surprised at how we're doing on that front relative to other countries.

The one thing I took away from a presentation my uni had on last week with some of the academics heavily involved in the response is that while our government may be untrustworthy and not inspiring confidence, our non political public health officials are pretty good. The responses that can be taken without the government orders have been in the right direction.