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A Horse Named Stranger

UK Politics: The Malice in the Chalice held by the Pfeffel with the Piffle is the Brexit that is true.

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34 minutes ago, Which Tyler said:

So, have I got my head got my head around Corbyn's motion correctly? Are we really having a debate in parliament about whether MPs should obey the law of the land?
Surely I've misunderstood something. For the love of all the gods, surely things haven't got THAt bad - despite "dead in a ditch" rhetoric.

It's just pointless theater.  Grieve's motion on the other hand, has put the government in a extremely embarrassing position. 

The government's position that the prorogation had nothing to do with Brexit has always been bullshit.  But the production of these documents will now prove that it is bullshit, with the result that the Government might lose the case in the SC.  On the one hand, this is of enormous constitutional importance.  On the other, despite all this strum and drang, Parliament has already done what it intended to do in order to prevent No-Deal Brexit, and what prorogation was designed to avoid. 

Edited by Gaston de Foix

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Yep. Demanding that the goverment hands over the yellowhammer documents would under normal circumstances be the really fun part. You can see Gove squirming. Not that I think the documents will make a fig of a difference.

Operation Yellowhammer will be fear 3.0 on steroids, who cares that it's the no-deal planning of the Johnson administration. It still a remainer conspiracy of the unnamed civil servants trying to usurp the will of the people.

I think I should have used a spoiler tag some place, anyway, you get the idea.

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2 hours ago, williamjm said:

Has Boris managed to win a vote yet or has he been defeated every time?

Depends. If Boris secretly doesn't want no-deal and he's only doing all this stuff to look like he's charging towards no-deal to keep the Brexit party out of parliament, he might argue, after the fact, in his memoirs that he's actually won every vote in parliament so far, and he did more to keep Britain safe from extremists than any PM in recent history. I bet he'll even claim to have stitched up his brother's resignation to give his no-deal cred extra crispiness.

He's like Batman, he can't be the hero the people want, so he's the villain the people need.

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1 hour ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Depends. If Boris secretly doesn't want no-deal and he's only doing all this stuff to look like he's charging towards no-deal to keep the Brexit party out of parliament, he might argue, after the fact, in his memoirs that he's actually won every vote in parliament so far, and he did more to keep Britain safe from extremists than any PM in recent history. I bet he'll even claim to have stitched up his brother's resignation to give his no-deal cred extra crispiness.

The paradox is that the more powerless Boris becomes, the more he can mouth off his rhetoric about No Deal and so forth knowing that he is safe from any actual consequences of what he says. So he can talk all he wants about how he had a great deal but Parliament chopped his legs off with the legislation, or that no deal would have been fine but everyone caved, etc etc.

If Johnson simply resigns on the eve of October 31 without having called an election, would the EU grant an extension? You think they'd have to want to know there is an election coming but what if the vote to call it hasn't been taken by then?

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Does this mean crashing out of the EU with no plan, no agreement, no election, no government?  The entire country just ... not functioning?

It's time for a bunch of women in their 20's and 30's to start putting things back on track, perhaps?

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30 minutes ago, Zorral said:

Does this mean crashing out of the EU with no plan, no agreement, no election, no government?  The entire country just ... not functioning?

It's time for a bunch of women in their 20's and 30's to start putting things back on track, perhaps?

Seems a bit old. I thought it was always teens who fixed shit that adults screwed up.

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8 hours ago, Zorral said:

Does this mean crashing out of the EU with no plan, no agreement, no election, no government?  The entire country just ... not functioning?

It's time for a bunch of women in their 20's and 30's to start putting things back on track, perhaps?

If Boris completely ignores the law requiring him to ask for an extension, that would trigger an even greater political crisis in Parliament than anything we've seen so far. He could be found in contempt of court and sent to jail, and if he isn't, that's a sign that politicians are above the law. At that point the opposition would either have to trigger a general election or make the attempt to form a government of national unity with someone like Ken Clarke as Prime Minister. That would be a shaky coalition - Labour, LibDems, SNP, ex-Tory independents, CUK and the Greens - but with a possible 30-seat majority, they'd be in a much better position to negotiate and pass a deal, and they'd only need to hold together for a few months. Such a coalition would also be much more likely to vote for Ref3 should they find a deal unworkable.

Also arguably, the country has not been functioning as it should since 2016, since Brexit has taken up such a vast amount of bandwidth that all the things that would otherwise be being dealt with - healthcare, education, police, defence, taxation - are not being given as much attention or scrutiny as they should, and in many cases simply aren't being addressed.

Bercow announcing his resignation now is a canny move, as it makes it much more likely that a replacement will not be a Conservative, pro-Brexit politician. Harriet Harman (who just announced her candidacy) is probably the front-runner and would not make the government's life any easier.

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I wonder. The transition period agreed  on in May's withdrawal deal was supposed to end on 31 December 2020. The current extension has already eaten up a good chunk of that. When is the final deal supposed to be negotiated?

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28 minutes ago, Loge said:

I wonder. The transition period agreed  on in May's withdrawal deal was supposed to end on 31 December 2020. The current extension has already eaten up a good chunk of that. When is the final deal supposed to be negotiated?

My guess is that the EU are holding back on a transition period extension as an olive branch in future negotiations, although it does come with complications (Britain might have to start paying into the budget for the next period, as this one ends in 2020, if we are still in a transitional period and enjoying EU benefits).

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3 hours ago, Werthead said:

If Boris completely ignores the law requiring him to ask for an extension, that would trigger an even greater political crisis in Parliament than anything we've seen so far. He could be found in contempt of court and sent to jail, and if he isn't, that's a sign that politicians are above the law. At that point the opposition would either have to trigger a general election or make the attempt to form a government of national unity with someone like Ken Clarke as Prime Minister. That would be a shaky coalition - Labour, LibDems, SNP, ex-Tory independents, CUK and the Greens - but with a possible 30-seat majority, they'd be in a much better position to negotiate and pass a deal, and they'd only need to hold together for a few months. Such a coalition would also be much more likely to vote for Ref3 should they find a deal unworkable.

Also arguably, the country has not been functioning as it should since 2016, since Brexit has taken up such a vast amount of bandwidth that all the things that would otherwise be being dealt with - healthcare, education, police, defence, taxation - are not being given as much attention or scrutiny as they should, and in many cases simply aren't being addressed.

Bercow announcing his resignation now is a canny move, as it makes it much more likely that a replacement will not be a Conservative, pro-Brexit politician. Harriet Harman (who just announced her candidacy) is probably the front-runner and would not make the government's life any easier.

Thank you.

The bolded -- yes, that's been quite clear, even from over here, as over here we've been in much the same dirty bathtub, including the active destructive dismantling of everything that works, despite the average voters' disapproval of this.

Women!  Young women! seem to be the key to hopefully turning around things.  But it will take years and years, even if successful and the entire world doesn't go up in flames and die of oxygen deprivation and lack of water.

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2 hours ago, Werthead said:

My guess is that the EU are holding back on a transition period extension as an olive branch in future negotiations, although it does come with complications (Britain might have to start paying into the budget for the next period, as this one ends in 2020, if we are still in a transitional period and enjoying EU benefits).

I think the reality has always been, that the UK would've always needed at least one extension of the transition period into the next budget period. Not because the EU desperately wants to keep the UK in or something, just because the next negotiations about the future relationship are gonna be extremely complex (compared to easy divorce bit). It's just nobody dared to say it loud, because truths and realities are not particularly welcome in the UK atm, and nobody wanted to destabilize it any further.

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Shropshire MP is officially conspiring with a foreign power in order to overturn the wishes of parliament.

Yet his opponents are the traitors...

https://www.shropshirestar.com/news/politics/2019/09/10/mp-asks-polish-government-to-block-brexit-delay/?fbclid=IwAR2GJYD6CcIM-ZM8Q7bqUHlOL0kH8nsNPrikPGCUDCPUQauhuUlb82W5uSc

 

 

Home affairs committee will continue to sit (if informally) regardless of prorogation. Given we have a fair few posters from overseas here, it's worth pointing out that prorogation isn't "just" closing the house of commons for an extra 5 days; it's closing the checks and balances on government (house of lords, select committees, special committees) as well. These are all still open for normal conference season; but are beng closed for 5 weeks thanks to BJ/DC. It also means (I think) that any business currently going through these areas are officially finished (not recessed, but finished). It's part of the point of prorogation, and why it takes a few days.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/parliament-prorogued-home-affairs-committee-sitting-informally-despite-fiveweek-suspension-a4232916.html?fbclid=IwAR3CTRWv5NdDFOMwNDUglx-KwzlJ-ypdmIaLXw3POeEsuEi9BbPtwPj-up0

 

One MP just down the road from me, lists out what he would have been doing this week:

 

Edited by Which Tyler

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Lead article in the Torygraph, and separately Bertie Ahern's sage musings (quoting/interpreting DUP leader in HoC) both seem to point to:

"all-Ireland zone for checks on most goods crossing between the north and south of the island ..... with Stormont lock"

guess kind of a regulatory border between NI and Britain (obviating the need for backstops), but one the DUP can be convinced to get on board with by Stormont being given a 'say' (but not a veto) over aspects of EU policy?

---

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/09/10/irish-backstop-could-boris-johnson-have-answer-solve-brexit/

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/10/any-brexit-deal-must-be-acceptable-dup-bertie-ahern

Edited by Ser Hedge

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3 hours ago, Ser Hedge said:

 

Lead article in the Torygraph, and separately Bertie Ahern's sage musings (quoting/interpreting DUP leader in HoC) both seem to point to:

"all-Ireland zone for checks on most goods crossing between the north and south of the island ..... with Stormont lock"

guess kind of a regulatory border between NI and Britain (obviating the need for backstops), but one the DUP can be convinced to get on board with by Stormont being given a 'say' (but not a veto) over aspects of EU policy?

---

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/09/10/irish-backstop-could-boris-johnson-have-answer-solve-brexit/

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/10/any-brexit-deal-must-be-acceptable-dup-bertie-ahern

I think it's a more a case of "Fuck the DUP, they're no longer relevant." Since they aren't needed to prop up the government any more, Boris can ignore them and put something in place that might entice the rebel Tories and Labour Deal campaigners to vote for it, and so it might just scrape through.

But yes, the Stormont thing is one of several things meant to encourage the DUP to get back into government with Sinn Fein, which given that none of the issues that led to Stormont being suspended have been meaningfully addressed (in two years!) is a bit of an optimistic hope.

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On 9/10/2019 at 9:46 AM, williamjm said:

Has Boris managed to win a vote yet or has he been defeated every time?

Wikipedia's list of Government Defeats has him 0 from 7.

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5 hours ago, The Marquis de Leech said:

Wikipedia's list of Government Defeats has him 0 from 7.

I can only think of 6

3 votes on extending article 50

2 votes for a GE

1 vote to publish Yellowhammer

 

The only other option I can think of, was an amendment to the article 50, but that really wasn't a defeat, it was a victory that he didn't want to appear look like a victory, preferring to look incompetent.

Edited by Which Tyler

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In positive news, Johnson has done something sensible for once.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-49655719
 

Quote

 

International students will be allowed to stay in the UK for two years after graduation to find a job, under new proposals announced by the Home Office.

The move reverses a decision made in 2012 by then-Home Secretary Theresa May that forced overseas students to leave four months after finishing a degree.

[...]

Under the proposals, there is no restriction on the kinds of jobs students would have to seek and no cap on numbers.

 

This is an overdue, necessary and positive move. We need more overseas students to stay. It's obviously been done to grab a headline or two and make the government appear more reasonable, no doubt to play into a narrative about 'global Britain' post-Brexit and so on. But it's still worth welcoming. 

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5 minutes ago, mormont said:

In positive news, Johnson has done something sensible for once.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-49655719
 

This is an overdue, necessary and positive move. We need more overseas students to stay. It's obviously been done to grab a headline or two and make the government appear more reasonable, no doubt to play into a narrative about 'global Britain' post-Brexit and so on. But it's still worth welcoming. 

Dammit, I came here to post exactly that - and fair play, the government has do e a good thing (albeit, only reversing a thing that should never have been done, by themselves).

It's blatant electioneering, (as with BJ's magical money tree), but it's still a good thing.

 

You beat me to it whilst I was trying to work out what BJ's 7th defeat would have been.

Edited by Which Tyler

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Breaking news - Scottish court of appeal has ruled prorogation unlawful - and that's before the release of communications around the decision to prorogue.

Safe to assume that this will bump up to the supreme court; but does that mean parliament is recalled pending that decision? or is it all too late to make a real difference beyond optics?

 

ETA: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-49661855

Only a headline at time of posting, will inevitably be editted over the next few hours (I've been buggered on that before).

Edited by Which Tyler

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