Jump to content

UK Politics: The Malice in the Chalice held by the Pfeffel with the Piffle is the Brexit that is true.


Recommended Posts

Labour apparently now saying they will not vote for a general election on 14 October. Counter-suggestion that the Conservatives will introduce a bill requiring a simple majority to fix the date of the next election as 14 October in law, and the SNP have indicated they may be in favour of voting for it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This takes us into the twilight zone. So Johnson is going to have to court the SNP to vote for his general election bill. And we know what the price for that will be.

Corbyn just confirmed he will not call for a VONC or support a government bill for a general election which allows a No Deal Brexit to occur.

Bercow had to talk to JRM (or Gove, didn't quite catch where he was pointing) like a child to get him to shut the fuck up.

ETA: LibDems confirming they will not vote for a general election that could lead to a No Deal Brexit either.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Werthead said:

This takes us into the twilight zone. So Johnson is going to have to court the SNP to vote for his general election bill. And we know what the price for that will be.

Corbyn just confirmed he will not call for a VONC or support a government bill for a general election which allows a No Deal Brexit to occur.



Labour can't hold out against a GE for long. They can reasonably insist the date is nailed down and permits time for a new government to form (assuming a coalition) and decide a Brexit policy without being hit by the deadline but aside from that surely holding out for months when the PM wants an election is just absurd. Unless they want a referendum instead but they don't. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Bercow had to talk to JRM (or Gove, didn't quite catch where he was pointing) like a child to get him to shut the fuck up.

I think he said Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster, which would be Gove.

Apparently 21 Tories rebelled. Boris seem to be trying to back away from expelling such a large part of his party, they're now saying they'll only have the whip withdrawn if they rebel again tomorrow. Somehow I doubt that offer is going to make much of a difference.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Rebels were: Guto Bebb, Richard Benyon, Steve Brine, Alistair Burt, Greg Clark, Ken Clarke, David Gauke, Justine Greening, Dominic Grieve, Sam Gyimah, Philip Hammond, Stephen Hammond, Richard Harrington, Margot James, Sir Oliver Letwin, Anne Milton, Caroline Nokes, Antoinette Sandbach, Nicholas Soames, Rory Stewart, Ed Vaizey

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Apparently all 21 will lose the whip, which is fucking stupid. The likes of Letwin, Hammond, Soames and Grieve joining the LibDems or becoming Independents will be incredible.

Johnson has committed the most spectacular self-owning, snookering manoeuvre in Parliamentary history, which will be something going down in the history books.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, williamjm said:

I think he said Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster, which would be Gove.

Apparently 21 Tories rebelled. Boris seem to be trying to back away from expelling such a large part of his party, they're now saying they'll only have the whip withdrawn if they rebel again tomorrow. Somehow I doubt that offer is going to make much of a difference.

So Johnson is the Ryman Frey of British Politics. Stupid, lazy and drunk whoremonger, who just makes empty threats, he then can't follow thru.

 

21 minutes ago, Werthead said:

This takes us into the twilight zone. So Johnson is going to have to court the SNP to vote for his general election bill. And we know what the price for that will be.

I don't think they'd take that bait. And I am not sure Johnson could or would actually offer it either. Anyway, the SNP's big political capital is, that they've acted reasonable, like adults if you will. They'd pretty much spend all of that for another bite at the referendum apple. Which they may or may not win, and if they don't win and get dragged out of the EU with the UK, that would be pretty much the end for them. That price would be a bit to steep for my liking. I'd rather take the GE some time in November and torture Johnson and his Tories a bit longer.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Boris Johnson kicking out Winston Churchill's grandson from Parliament for voting with his conscience on the 80th anniversary of the start of WWII is some kind of epic optics. You could not make this up at all.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah, they're not going anywhere, and they're all popular enough that their constituents will vote for them again even if they joined Labour (well, okay, maybe not, but probably if they went LibDem and near-certainly as Independents). I wonder if Clarke can be persuaded not to stand down at the next election as he had previously indicated (which to be fair he didn't think was until 2022).

The only problem in all of this is that there seems to be a slide towards a general election rather than Ref3. That's a strong tactical error, as the Remain vote's high geographic concentration means that a general election framed as a No Deal Leave vs Remain vote could be won by Leave even if the overall Remain (or at least anti-No Deal) vote is much, much higher. The FPTP system of a general election swings the vote much more in favour of Leave, whilst Ref3 would require a simple majority, which probably no longer exists for simple Leave vs. Remain and never did exist in the first place for No Deal vs. Remain.

If the Rebel Alliance - which  now seems to be their preferred name so go figure - now swung behind Ref3, that really would be something.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Yep, also old Ken Clarke. And didn't Hammond just got the backing from his constituency a few days ago?

Yes but I am unsure whose decision it is whether he gets to stand. I think there was talk of legal challenges if Central Office claim it is their decision. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Apparently all 21 will lose the whip, which is fucking stupid. The likes of Letwin, Hammond, Soames and Grieve joining the LibDems or becoming Independents will be incredible.

Johnson has committed the most spectacular self-owning, snookering manoeuvre in Parliamentary history, which will be something going down in the history books.

It also seems dangerous to kick them all out at once because if someone like Hammond wanted to he could probably quickly make himself the leader of the fourth largest party in Parliament - possibly having learned some lessons from the whole Change UK debacle about what not to do.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It has to be remembered that recent polls show a 8-10% Tory lead which apparently puts the Tories on something like a 50% chance of a majority. So even though Boris was beaten today (and we can assume, reasonably safely, that the blocking legislation will pass) he has an even chance of winning an election. Remain parties are too divided and weak to do much about this, and Tory success will largely be determined by how much damage Farage does to Johnson. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If Labour, LibDem and remain conservatives are as smart as the respective parties claim they are, I can see a lot of strategic voting happening in Tory seats that mostly voted majority remain in the ref. The non-LibDem voters among that lot could all swing in behind a libDem and take the seat off the Tories. And if half of the rebel alliance get back into parliament as independents I do wonder where a Tory majority will come from.

8-10% ahead in polls probably also includes voters in the rebel alliance bases, so I don't know if 8-10% is quite as meaningful for Tories now considering what's happened in the last 24 hours.

I'd put the chances of a Tory (+DUP) majority at less than 50% as of today. And if Labour campaigns strongly on ref 2.0 with remain as a promised option they can pick up swing voters.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...