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Denys and Elbert Arryn survive to war of five kings


Mrstrategy

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4 hours ago, Mrstrategy said:

What if denys and Elbert arryn and their families had survived to war of five kings?

You mean Robert's Rebellion?

I think a lot. Having two - and by all accounts - capable heirs might change the calculations in Jon Arryn's head enough to not marry Lysa and then the whole plot doesn't happen.

Even if he still marries her and the plot happens as OTL. Denys and Elbert might have enough political clout within the Vale to force Lysa's hand and get the Vale involved in the war. In that case the Lannisters are screwed.

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4 hours ago, •Brandon Ice Eyes said:

Jon still marries Lysa as it was necessary for a war alliance as Hoster Tully wanted one of his grandson' as the Lord of Vale and The Eyrie, and thus, Sweetrobin still happens. Maybe Denys and Elbert can rally the Vale to without the support of Lysa.

It might lead to a Vale civil war, because Lysa is Petyr’s pawn and would force her hand to maintain control of the Vale against the Arryns. The Lords Declarant would obviously back the Arryns, and with Baelish preoccupied, Lysa might lose.

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I doubt Jon marries anyone. Just as easy for Hoster to wed Lysa to Elbert. It makes more sense from a dynastic standpoint and a personal standpoint. Elbert is a lot younger, unmarried, Jon's heir, and hypothetically looks like Jon/Harold since he's an Arryn.

So really not much changes until about 298 in the timeline as I'm assuming Lysa won't suffer as man miscarriages and go shit off her rocker. This is assuming it's Jon's age playing the biggest issue and not Lysa's tansy tea causing permanent damage.

 

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1 hour ago, nyser1 said:

If Jon is over 60 and already has recognized an heir, it would make more sense for him to seal the alliance by marrying Lysa to his heir. Perhaps little Robert might not get his chance to demand to see the "small man fly" after all...

That’s a good point, but then why didn’t Jon have Denys marry Lysa? Denys was alive at the time and he was Jon’s heir. Yet Jon still married Lysa anyway.

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36 minutes ago, James Steller said:

That’s a good point, but then why didn’t Jon have Denys marry Lysa? Denys was alive at the time and he was Jon’s heir. Yet Jon still married Lysa anyway.

This is the same guy who for 15 years ran the realm and did not know that the Queen he served was sleeping with her bodyguard brother. The logic game is not strong.

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LF control of the Vale would be much smaller. Lysa may not even become the regent as she was cleary unstable, and in this situation Elbert would probably be the castelan and hold more influence then Lysa.

Catelyn might be less certain of bringing Tyrion to the Eyrie. If she does, I doubt the situation would be similar to what Lysa made it out., refusing Tyrion the chance to wait for Jaime as his champion.  Jaime would probably won, Tyrion still walks free. I doubt that they would be forced to take the mountains way, so no helping from the them later on.

With Jaime being busy fighting for Tyrion as champion Tywin would probably give command to Kevan instead and he would probably not follow Jaime mistakes, Robb would probably still take advantage of the positions of the camps in Riverrun, but his victory would be much less decisive.

I'm not convinced that Elbert would join the Starks, Catelyn has no proof of Tyrion attempt to murder Bran, and if Lysa acoused Tyrion the trial of combat would clear his name. The Arryns have no cause to join the Starks/Tully.

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3 hours ago, nyser1 said:

This is the same guy who for 15 years ran the realm and did not know that the Queen he served was sleeping with her bodyguard brother. The logic game is not strong.

I never quite understood how an honorable man like Jon Arryn was able to run the realm for 15 years when Ned Stark had it crumbling around his ears in four months.

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14 hours ago, •Brandon Ice Eyes said:

Jon still marries Lysa as it was necessary for a war alliance as Hoster Tully wanted one of his grandson' as the Lord of Vale and The Eyrie, and thus, Sweetrobin still happens. Maybe Denys and Elbert can rally the Vale to without the support of Lysa.

Even though Hoster still had a foot in the North via Ned filling Brandon's spot as Catelyn's husband?

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On 9/5/2019 at 7:35 PM, Angel Eyes said:

Even though Hoster still had a foot in the North via Ned filling Brandon's spot as Catelyn's husband?

Southron ambitions was really always "Tully Ambitions"

 

Remember Lysa was supposed to marry Jamie Lannister.

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On 9/5/2019 at 3:32 PM, James Steller said:

That’s a good point, but then why didn’t Jon have Denys marry Lysa? Denys was alive at the time and he was Jon’s heir. Yet Jon still married Lysa anyway.

 

Denys was already married according to the wiki.

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