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Robert killed in tourney


Mrstrategy

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Ned likely would be dismissed as Hand. If he remains in King's Landing and keeps poking into Jon Arryn's death, it's likely he'll meet an accident himself. If he gets word to Stannis, not much would really change. If he doesn't, it's even odds Robb would still insist it's foul play and call his banners. Afterall the Lannisters and Tullys were already fighting. Renly and the Tyrells were already playing their games to undermine the Lannisters. Stannis was already convinced the Lannisters murdered Jon Arryn. Robert and Ned dying is only going to make him that much more suspicious. So some version of the War of the Five Kings is pretty much guaranteed. The seeds were planted for that long before Ned Stark ever got to King's Landing.

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Race for the Iron Throne answered this hypothetical when it covered that chapter:

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Cersei’s plan had succeeded? If Robert Baratheon dies at this point, things become very interesting indeed. Without firm proof of Joffrey’s genetic bastardy, Eddard probably would have sworn an oath of fealty to the new King – but unless Robert dies instantly, Eddard’s the new Regent. With no cause to remove him, Cersei now has to work to unseat an Eddard Stark who now has the powers of the King of Westeros, and who will be quickly lobbied by Stannis and Renly (if not also by Littlefinger and Varys) with proofs that Joffrey is king. This could potentially kick off a Dance of the Dragons-style coup d’etat, with Eddard standing in for Ser Criston the Kingmaker. Alternatively, had Eddard ceased his investigations and truly believed Joffrey was the rightful King, I could see him unhappily leading the royal armies against Stannis and Renly before being dismissed from service or resigning when Joffrey’s madness becomes evident.

 

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