nyser1 Posted September 15, 2019 Share Posted September 15, 2019 Amongst all of these arguments, I still believe that: Original Plan Marg becomes Queen and Tyrells replace Lannister as the chief socio-economical-military backer of the crown. Less problems for Renly and he can borrow money for his fancy armour, masquerades, etc. After Robert Dies Same thing except he is Robert. If other historical figures with homosexual preferences can have children so would he. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ran Posted September 15, 2019 Share Posted September 15, 2019 3 minutes ago, nyser1 said: Amongst all of these arguments, I still believe that: Original Plan Marg becomes Queen and Tyrells replace Lannister as the chief socio-economical-military backer of the crown. Less problems for Renly and he can borrow money for his fancy armour, masquerades, etc. After Robert Dies Same thing except he is Robert. If other historical figures with homosexual preferences can have children so would he. Concise and, IMO, pretty much correct. It's straightforward, and it feels like that's anathema for some reason. I blame the show, again, for having warped things a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Varys Posted September 15, 2019 Share Posted September 15, 2019 1 hour ago, nyser1 said: Original Plan Marg becomes Queen and Tyrells replace Lannister as the chief socio-economical-military backer of the crown. Less problems for Renly and he can borrow money for his fancy armour, masquerades, etc. I'd not be surprised if Robert was actually the guy to pay for Renly's lifestyle - he could have had a royal allowance in addition to his incomes as Lord of Storm's End. But being Lord of Storm's End should also make him reasonably wealthy. The reason why Renly had issues with Cersei is unclear - that would be rather interesting and is, I think, part of the 'underdeveloped Renly problem'. The reason why Cersei had issues with Robert's problems is reasonably clear - or can at least be guessed at. Vice versa it is completely unclear. 1 hour ago, nyser1 said: After Robert Dies Same thing except he is Robert. If other historical figures with homosexual preferences can have children so would he. And like with many homosexual people in history the legitimacy of his children might be more in doubt than those of Robert. I don't doubt that Margaery's womb would have quickened eventually - but I'd not wager any money that Renly would have been the biological father. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Varys Posted September 16, 2019 Share Posted September 16, 2019 18 hours ago, Peach King said: How can you ignore the author's own words on the matter? Show Margaery is Margaery. Show Margaery is a moron who didn't even know grandma poisoned Joffrey. 18 hours ago, Peach King said: Why would Margaery tell Joffrey that Lord Buckler wanted to toast them? If Joffrey asked her to drink, she couldn't refuse, and would be at great risk. That isn't the way someone who knew about the poison would act. Because the king always drinks first? Because she could always spill the wine if she was the one who was supposed to drink first? 18 hours ago, Peach King said: I read the wiki, and it says Renly was knocked down on his first joust (against the Hound). Stannis was right. The Hound is one of the best jousters in the Realm, it seems. Nobody said Renly was on his level. 18 hours ago, Peach King said: Stannis hates the Tyrells. Robert was overloaded with the Lannisters (and drunk, fat and uncaring). Renly was the best target, not being linked to any House besides his own. That doesn't change the fact that being the king's squire would have been much more prestigious for Loras. But then - who knows? Perhaps they tried. Perhaps Renly was only the third choice. 18 hours ago, Peach King said: Of course it is - because he would be bringing his daughter with him along with an entourage. There was no proof of the incest, so there would likely be an altercation with the Lannisters. It would depend on Robert's attachment to Margaery. You are not making sense. Hundreds of highborn women attend the tourney. There is nothing wrong with Margaery being there. 18 hours ago, Peach King said: A few weeks is not enough to know someone extremely well. He didn't say he knew him extremely well. And explicitly states that he befriended him while he lived at court - which he did from the Tourney of the Hand until Robert's death. 18 hours ago, Peach King said: You have no basis for your claim that Loras didn't live at court, you just want it to be so because you want Loras to have been 12 when he got in a relationship with Renly. LOL, no. 18 hours ago, Peach King said: Here are several more indicators he lived in KL, from the same thread: 1. Hes a third son, a free agent who could choose his own way. We see people hang around in KL without a reason in these books all the time - like Rhaegar's friends. But he is close to his family and he comes from Highgarden to KL in AGoT. No hint he lived at court at all. He lives at Highgarden, like Garlan and Leonette do, too. 18 hours ago, Peach King said: 2. He purchases his armour from Tobho Mott's, and is a frequent customer. He clearly is often in the city for tourneys - both after he got his knighthood and earlier while he was visiting court with Renly (while Renly still lived at Storm's End). 18 hours ago, Peach King said: 3. Littlefinger, Jaime, Cersei, Gregor and his henchmen all know about the gay. Some of these aren't observant people, so Loras would have to be in KL for a long time. That doesn't follow. 18 hours ago, Peach King said: 6. He could be the eyes and ears in the capital. Loras is clearly nobody's eyes and ears after he lives at court as KG. He is no plotter. 18 hours ago, Peach King said: 7. Being at the capital would bring him most exposure and fame. Doesn't follow - there can and have been more prestigious tourneys at Highgarden, Lannisport, and Harrenhal. 18 hours ago, Peach King said: 8. It's clear Loras went to Highgarden and back (Renly only begins plotting when people arrive at the capital) but was in the capital before that (because the armour he wears at the tourney was from Tobho Mott). That doesn't mean he lived there - have you never bought something while you visited a friend? And those nobles don't have to work, they can visit with people for a rather long time... 18 hours ago, Peach King said: Good point. But then why did Lady Tanda (a lady), the Redwyne Twins (who are heirs and more important than Loras, and from a house as rich as the Tyrells), Bronze Yohn (a lord), and Balon Swann, all have only 50 men between them? How do I know? We don't know anything about the family dynamics there. But it is clear that Tyrion has rather few retainers for a couple of reasons. Tywin didn't grant him many. And nobody expected Tyrion to accompany the king to Winterfell. And Cersei/Robert didn't care to assign more men to Tyrion when they left and Tyrion stayed to visit the Wall. It is only when they go to the Wall that Tyrion is down to two servants - back as part of the king's party he may have had more. 18 hours ago, Peach King said: It also means it's reductive to label all of them as abusive. I think it is crucial to point out that those arranged marriages are all sick in principle. Some turn out well, but any arranged marriage which doesn't involve spouses that are attracted to each other and would at least consider to marry if they were not forced is fundamentally twisted and an unhealthy relationship. 18 hours ago, Peach King said: No, that's just your mind seeing things that aren't implied. GRRM introduced the line to show Renly didn't care for books and for humor, nothing more. Teenagers look at porn mags all the time, lol. Well, it certainly is possible that Loras just stumbled on Renly's hidden porn collection - but I honestly doubt that. Loras isn't the reading type - and neither is Renly. 18 hours ago, Peach King said: Also he never says Renly showed him, maybe he saw a few in his library or his room. Yeah, you can find many such explanations, but we don't know. 18 hours ago, Peach King said: How do you know he wasn't knighted? You have no proof he didn't live at court. I meant that Renly could have been knighted at a later age than 16. 18 hours ago, Peach King said: All I'm saying is you don't have to constantly say gross stuff and bring up the image of children in sexual situations in every thread. I don't do that in every thread. And I'd not do that at all if the author wouldn't be constantly putting children in gross situations. 18 hours ago, Peach King said: Olenna wasn't pushing for Margaery to sleep with Tommen. Tommen is only 8. Sleeping in the same bed as him gets him away from Cersei's influence. That is how they sold it. But answer me: Don't you think a gorgeous Margaery would not *help* a 9-12-year-old Tommen to *discover* his own sexuality with him? Kiss him, caress him, give him handjobs, etc.? They are married. And the marriage has to be consummated to prevent it that Margaery is set aside later on. 18 hours ago, Peach King said: Maybe he got knighted at KL. Also there is more evidence he stayed at the capital than the other way around. One assumes Loras got knighted by Renly or at Renly's behest. He was his knightly master. 18 hours ago, Peach King said: Well your opinion is wrong. Loras is a teenager. Every relationship is meaningful and significant at this age. Tyrion even makes a crack about it ("I see now, you are seventeen"). Teenagers also have meaningless flings and affairs. Not every teenage romance is idealized as a great love - especially not after the lover has been dead for some time. 18 hours ago, Peach King said: Renly would only formally be the ruling Lord of Storm's End when he came of age (i.e at 16). That is right, but he could still have had a squire before that age (as a lord). Robb also has a squire without being a man grown or even a knight. 18 hours ago, Peach King said: It could start at 11, 12, or even 13. The wiki calculations have Renly as born in 277 AC, and Loras in 282 AC (based on all the evidence we get). That's five years (but certainly could be four years and a couple of months under certain conditions). 18 hours ago, Peach King said: Brienne overpowered him. But I'm dropping this part of the convo because it makes me uncomfortable. Loras also butchered two Rainbow Guardsmen. He can fight. And he is strong. 18 hours ago, Peach King said: I brought up Tysha and Tyrion because that is a romantic relationship which lasted only weeks but which Tyrion thinks of constantly. And you don't take into account Tyrion's specific situation, his low self-esteem, his fear that nobody could ever love him, etc.? Tyrion is a fucked-up person, he is not representative of the average person. 18 hours ago, Peach King said: Therefore your stating that the relationship must have lasted for a long time for Loras to utter his candle quote is a flawed statement. I don't say it *must have* lasted long, I say that I choose to believe that it has lasted some time since I think that would give their relationship more meaning. 18 hours ago, Peach King said: The info that Renly was born in 277 AC comes from the app, which isn't canon. Only direct quotes are canon. Renly was "near twenty" in AGOT, we aren't given an age. Loras was 17 in ACOK (Catelyn thinks he's 2 years older than Robb, who was 15, after Renly's death he also says he's 17) and Renly was 21. So one could even say they have a 3-4 age gap if they wanted to. There is a calculation which makes it clear 277 AC is the best year for Renly's birth. 18 hours ago, Peach King said: Given Renly's young age, lack of skill with the sword (and it's not even known if he's a knight), and his lordly duties, Loras was likely taught by a maester-at-arms. The squiring was political in nature. I don't think Renly personally trained Loras at arms - they would have had masters-at-arms, of course - but that still doesn't change that Renly was Loras' master. Loras was at Renly's mercy. 18 hours ago, Peach King said: And by our standards - almost no relationship in the series is healthy. Sure, I agree - but that doesn't mean Renly-Loras is an unproblematic relationship. 18 hours ago, Peach King said: I didn't say Loras led Renly around. I meant he was able to speak his mind to Renly and voice his opinions. It must have meant Renly would listen to him in the past. It only means Loras spoke his mind to Renly - not that Renly often listened to Loras. 18 hours ago, Peach King said: Loras' aggressiveness and forceful personality and defiance of authority (look at his attitude towards Jaime) make it equally possible he initated the relationship. That would depend when the relationship started - Renly himself is a much more forceful and determined man than Loras. 18 hours ago, Peach King said: You were saying they would have a long and meaningful relationship but were also saying it's likely Renly only saw him as a fling. Only one is possible. I say for Loras loving Renly as much as he apparently did I think it is more reasonable to assume the relationship lasted longer. Since we don't know what Loras meant to Renly the relationship could have lasted three months or three years - we will never know. 18 hours ago, Peach King said: We never got any indication that Renly was unfaithful to Loras. If GRRM wanted to hint at that it would be easy to slip in a sentence in some passage. But yeah he would have lovers before Loras. The latter was my main point - the former is an interesting possibility considering that Renly was obviously not with Loras during the first half of AGoT. Could he have had affairs then? We don't know. It is possible. 18 hours ago, Peach King said: Gareth Long was not allowed to strike Aegon III. He was also despised, as is Randyll Tarly, it carries a social stigma to mistreat your squires. Long could not strike Aegon III because the king's person is inviolable. But Loras Tyrell isn't the king, is he? Long still could torment Aegon III on a psychological and physical level by beating up Gaemon Palehair and by making exercises in the practice yard he clearly didn't want to do. Renly would have had greater authority over Loras - the same way Dunk has over Egg. To be clear: I'm not saying that Renly abused the power he had over Loras - I say the power dynamic was very one-sided there and that dynamic would have shaped the relationship - consciously and unconsciously. How exactly their relationship started we will never know. What we do know is that they were not two squires or knights who fell in love at a chance meeting, but that Renly was Loras' master and tutor before he became his lover. 18 hours ago, Peach King said: And we don't know how or when it started. It would be a risk for Renly as well, because Highgarden could hate him for "unmanning" Loras. And a power imbalance doesn't necessarily render a relationship toxic (Robb and Jeyne is an example). Is there any indication that sleeping around among knights and squires is seen as unmanning somebody? I don't recall any such passages. 18 hours ago, Peach King said: He might be a self aware puppet, but he was still a puppet. He would have been more dependent on the Tyrells than Robert was on the Lannisters. Not really. I mean, look at ACoK. Mace Tyrell isn't there - Renly is surrounded by Mace's bannermen and they worship and obey and advise him, Renly Baratheon. Renly has the Reach in his pocket, no matter what Mace thinks or says. If Renly and his army had taken the Iron Throne, Tarly and Rowan and Oakheart and all the others could have demanded greater rewards than Mace Tyrell - who sat on his ass along with his older sons. Like Robert, Renly's greatest gift was to make friends. He would not have been dependent on anyone. Robert is only dependent on the Lannisters because he is a wastrel and indebted to them. 18 hours ago, Peach King said: It's all in the previous pages man, I'm too lazy to type it all out again. You just claim Mace is cautious - you never showed that. 18 hours ago, Peach King said: Still doesn't change the fact that they weren't subtle. Bran caught them in ~5 minutes, Robert could have caught them if he wasn't such a drunkard. Bran caught them by accident. They were not exactly having sex in his bedchamber, did they? 18 hours ago, Peach King said: He didn't grow up with them. Jaime left to be a squire when he was 4 - and Cersei left for court when he was 5. He lived at Casterly Rock his whole life. When he was 8, Jaime was named to the Kingsguard, and after that they would meet only for visits. Those were apparently rather long visits - or else there would have been no meaningful bond between Tyrion and Jaime. 18 hours ago, Peach King said: You can't prove it. This isn't even a question - Renly himself and George make it clear that he didn't know. 18 hours ago, Peach King said: Renly wasn't ambitious for power, he wanted acclaim. He was already one of the most powerful people in KL. He still wanted the crown. 18 hours ago, Peach King said: You seem to be supporting me in my argument. Exactly - Renly had great reason to fear Cersei, because she would be destroyed if the truth of the incest came out, so had great reason to get rid of him. That's why he was so panicky after Robert's death. LOL, no. Because we know Renly didn't know about the twincest. 18 hours ago, Peach King said: Maybe he feared being stripped of his seat in the Small Council, but that doesn't warrant such a reaction, considering he never even utilized it. Maybe he was scared of losing Storm's End, but you can't just strip a popular Lord Paramount of his seat of power, there would have been an outcry. Cersei did strip nearly all the great lords of the Realm of their lands and titles during Joffrey's first court session. All men and women who didn't do homage to King Joffrey there were attainted. 18 hours ago, Peach King said: Well Robert is STUPID. And doesn't care. No one can force him to do anything. Well, you are not Robert, so you have no clue whether Robert would have considered marrying the young Margaery a good or bad idea. I find it strange to believe that Robert would resist that suggestion. 18 hours ago, Peach King said: If he thought that the situation was like the one in which he was forced to marry Cersei, that's even more reason he wouldn't just marry Margaery. Cersei seemed beautiful and desirable the first day he met her too. And that would go for any woman, no? If Robert intended to marry, he would marry a woman who would bring him something. For sex he has whores. 18 hours ago, Peach King said: Against the rest of the 6 kingdoms? No, Tywin is not suicidal. He would scheme, but not go to war. Haven't you read the series? In AGoT Tywin Lannister wages a war against the North, the Riverlands, the Reach, the Stormlands, and the Narrow Sea islands (in ACoK the Iron Islands join the fray). Dorne doesn't join the war, but he cannot count on them siding with him, can he? And he had every reason to expect that the Vale would stand with the Tullys and the Starks. That's essentially all the Seven Kingdoms, is it not? 18 hours ago, Peach King said: Like I said, he could legitimize one of his bastards if he feared that. And why would that matter if he's in Essos? Because I don't think Robert would have ever wanted Stannis to succeed him. I think if Robert had known that his children were not his on his deathbed - if the coward Ned had told him the truth - he would have either said 'bugger that, Ned, Joffrey (or Tommen) was my son his entire life, I want him to succeed me to prevent a war'. Or he would have seriously considered naming Renly his heir. He would not have turned to Stannis. 18 hours ago, Peach King said: Like I said, Renly's proximity to the twins, that he would be the only Small Council member who wouldn't know (and therefore an anomaly), his interaction with several black haired Baratheons (Edric, Robert, Shireen, Stannis, maybe Gendry). Renly didn't give a damn about hair colors. Renly wasn't close to the twins. And Renly isn't the only guy on the council who had no idea. Jon Arryn had no idea until shortly before his death, Selmy never had any idea, Littlefinger may learned only from Jon via Lysa, etc. 18 hours ago, Peach King said: And Robert is blind and deaf. Renly is considerably smarter. But he has really no means to figure it out. 18 hours ago, Peach King said: The most fitting explanation is that Daeron ran off with Jeremy. He followed the examples of his brothers and sister. As I said, we don't know what happened in detail. And nobody ran away with anyone. All Daeron and Olenna did is not go through with their marriage. 18 hours ago, Peach King said: Of course it does. She lied to make herself look better in both the cases. She also has a natural contempt for men who aren't Willas. Can you prove either of those rather bold claims? 18 hours ago, Peach King said: Maybe Olenna was even reminded of the past and the Margaery-Loras-Renly triangle brought back unwanted memories of being cast aside by a gay guy. Could be that she didn't like Renly because he reminded her of Daeron. But that doesn't mean she lied about opposing the silly Renly idea. 18 hours ago, Peach King said: They were standing around in Bitterbridge instead of going directly to Highgarden. And IIRC Littlefinger first met Loras, then went to Highgarden. And this doesn't disprove my point? They were waiting for the Lannisters to come to them. This actually shows Mace's caution even more. LOL, where is your proof that Loras stayed at Bitterbridge because his father wanted the Lannisters to come to him? This shows they didn't know what to do. 18 hours ago, Peach King said: This could even mean they knew the Lannister kids were incest bred and weren't too willing to marry them. Olenna's comments while she was talking to Sansa shows that she believes they are. Sure, and it is clear that Olenna is not that keen to marry her granddaughter to one of Cersei's children. She makes it clear that her son wants Margaery to be a queen - not that she or Margaery want that. She kills Joffrey to ensure Mace gets what he wants and her grandchildren are not in danger. But she would have little problems, one assumes, if Margaery was not a queen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FictionIsntReal Posted September 16, 2019 Share Posted September 16, 2019 On 9/12/2019 at 8:37 PM, Lord Varys said: All we can say is that he paints himself as being somewhat in danger from the Lannisters. I think he uses that as an excuse to make himself look better - just as many readers actually excuse Stannis for abandoning Robert and Ned by claiming he was 'in mortal danger' from Cersei when in fact she had no plans to poison Stannis and Stannis never actually stated that he had been afraid for his life or that he was afraid of Cersei Lannister, a mere woman, personally (the man did not leave court because he was afraid Cersei would spike his salt water) - but in fact he left KL because he had already decided he would claim the throne himself (or had already went down half that path or so). Renly only does that when Robert dies and he's argued that he and Ned should seize Joffrey by force of arms. And Stannis was preparing for war, but it's much less clear he was angling for the throne prior to Robert's death. He even delays announcing himself king long enough for Renly and Robb to beat him to it. Cersei's lack of a plan to poison Stannis is not something he knew about. We learn later that she wasn't actually responsible for Jon Arryn's poisoning, although Ned, Stannis and Pycelle conclude she was. Quote It is quite clear how the thing went. The guy was some low-life sellsword, freerider, or hedge knight who attached himself to the royal party on their way to Winterfell. Joffrey did not spent his days on the journey in the royal wheelhouse. He would have been out and about with Sandor Clegane and the other guys he was hanging out with. While Joff isn't the kind of prince who would befriend smallfolk the way Arya did, there are many scenarios imaginable how he might have made the acquaintance of that particular guy - say, he drank with the Hound one night in an inn when Joffrey was with them, and he desperately tried to please his prince, enter his service, etc. Joff certainly could have remembered something like that. When did Joffrey ever hang out with Sandor in low places? In ACoK when Tyrion is talking with Varys about getting between Sandor and Joffrey, the former's patronage of winesinks and brothels when they expect them to be separated. And if they were together, Sandor isn't dumb enough to think the prince ordering the execution of the Hand's son is something he should just let pass. If rando sellsword screws up and this comes back to them, he's going to be in a much more vulnerable position than the twelve year old firstborn son of the king. Quote There is really nothing wrong with that particular plot. The reason why people don't like that so much is that it doesn't fit with the overall 'conspiracy theory angle' most readers usually use when explaining mysteries in the novels. But while there are real conspiracies there have always been - especially in the first book - many accidents and coincidences which shaped the story. And the attempt on Bran is just one such. If one person hires a second person to commit a crime, that constitutes a conspiracy. Quote Not sure how you can say that this indicates that Renly actually wanted to get Ned on board with his plan. He wanted to assess whether the talk that Margaery resembled Lyanna was accurate - which was an important part of his plan to make Robert fall in love with Margaery - but if he wanted Ned on board with the plan he would have actually hinted at the actual plan - or at least try to bond with Ned over their mutual loathing of the Lannisters. "Assess the talk"? The only source of said talk we know of is Renly himself. We know he was scheming to set Margaery up with Robert, and the obvious chain of events goes from Renly having a pre-existing relationship with Loras and thus selecting Loras' sister for that reason rather than coincidentally hearing that Margaery looks like Lyanna even though Ned says she doesn't. It was basically wishful thinking from somebody who didn't actually know Lyanna. Quote My point simply is that a Robert fearing retribution from Tywin or his heirs over the Cersei issue when the incest came out would not have been in need to be in love with Margaery to consider it a reasonable decision to make her his queen. I think you do recall that Cersei also realized this when Tyrion suggested to offer Joff's hand to Margaery after Renly's death. Margaery would have been a possible candidate for the new queen. Perhaps Robert wouldn't bother marrying at all after the last time when Jon Arryn overcame his objections, particularly as he has two brothers old enough to take the throne in case of his death. The Lannisters were in a dire situation and really needed allies when they proposed a marriage between Joffrey and Margaery. Quote What 'the seed is strong' actually meant is completely unclear. Could be something referring to his suspicions, could be what Lysa believed, could be something from Jon's youth that came back to him in his last moments, could be some nonsense. We don't really know. We only know how people chose to interpret that line. It definitely wasn't what Lysa thought. We might not know much about Jon Arryn, but we he disagreed with Lysa about their son. Everyone but crazy Lysa can see that Sweetrobin isn't strong at all. I think the evidence of his genealogical research points the reader to one conclusion, and there is at best no evidence for any of the others. Quote In all the Lannister-Baratheon offspring. That is a difference. FaB gave us other examples - Jocelyn Baratheon's grandchildren and great-grandchildren had the silver-golden hair and the purples eyes of the Velaryons/Targaryens. But one could easily make the case, countering Jon and Stannis' 'bastard evidence' that Cersei Lannister happens to come from a purified and thus, presumably, stronger Lannister bloodline considering that her parents Tywin and Joanna Lannister were golden-haired, green-eyed first cousins - a case that could likely not be made for the Baratheons and Lannisters who wed in the past and whose offspring is mentioned in the book. The series uses fantasy genetics which doesn't really have to logically cohere the way reality does. GRRM just made up that bit to have characters reach the correct conclusion about Cersei's children without them having access to something like a paternity test. Quote Considering his devotion to the Lannisters it may have been enough for him to know the queen wanted him dead. He may not have needed more explanation than that. Pycelle serves the Lannisters because he has a high regard for Tywin making difficult choices and ruling responsibly. He turns against Cersei when it becomes clear how irresponsible she's being. Killing the competent hand of the king does not seem very responsible, but rather the sort of thing Mad King Aerys did. He says the reason was because of what Jon Arryn knew, although Pycelle is afraid to say exactly what that knowledge was, and as I noted the genealogical research provides a specific reason for him to know about Jon's knowledge. This is really the simplest explanation which fits well with all available evidence, and as Pycelle is now dead it's not like GRRM is going to be able to pull off a surprise like Lysa did by revealing that Pycelle didn't actually know. Quote Ned figured it out because he had a reason to believe the Lannisters poisoned Jon Arryn. Pycelle is an expert on poisons who sent away Maester Colemon specifically to prevent him from purging the Tears. He did not think Jon died because he was old and just got sick. He knew it was a high-level assassination which an unsophisticated person would not be able to carry out (we know Cersei's actual assassination plots consisted of nagging Robert and replacing his wine with strongwine), and he assisted it because he concluded that was better for the realm. Quote And nothing indicates Cersei or Jaime ever publicly exchanged French kisses or had sex in front of others. We don't know what led Stannis believe what he believed, but chances are pretty high that he never had more a 'it would be pretty fucked up if this were the case' case in this entire affair. His confirmation seems to be the sudden death of Jon Arryn - and that really doesn't cout as evidence for anything. They had sex right in front of Robert while he was asleep, with Jaime figuring he would just kill Robert if he woke up. They did this in multiple different castles where they were guests and had no real control or assurance of security. They were reckless. Quote I know that, but it is still quite clear that Stannis is doing himself and his dynasty a disservice by not trying to impregnate Selyse after he has declared himself king. And if he doesn't care it is not surprising that other would-be kings (among them his own brother) wouldn't care, either. Stannis never sees Renly as his heir considering that Renly publicly claims the throne before Stannis does - and Stannis later only offers to name Renly his heir, he never does so. Fathering an heir is often a secondary concern during a military campaign. He's going to be busy in the field and would presumably have more time to focus on that later. If he doesn't expect the campaign to last that long, then Selyse getting pregnant before it ends won't make that much of a difference compared to later. Prior to the war breaking out, Renly is available as a male heir. Stannis has definitely consummated his relationship with Selyse so his alliance with the Florents is not vulnerable to anullment like Renly's is with the Tyrells. Quote They could try. But the only Tyrell Renly is likely to listen to would be Loras. And he might not exactly keep to see Renly fuck Margaery. If the Tyrells replace the Lannisters, Renly will need to listen to them. Quote It is just an idea. But I have to say that if I were Margaery and had any ambition or desire to be a proper queen I'd be quite pissed how my 'husband' is treating me at table (ignoring me in conversation and feeding me occasionally as if I were nothing but a pet bird) while showering my brother with attention and affection. Maybe she would be, but as a non-POV character we just don't know. Quote And we do know that Loras was very much in love with Renly. Would he have been fine with Renly sleeping with Margaery? We actually don't know. He knew they were married and stuck by Renly through that. Renly proclaimed that he would get Margaery pregnant, so it seems like something Loras would have to accept as part of Renly's plans. He might not have been happy about it, but the same could be said for Renly himself. Quote I think it is hardly a coincidence that Aenys may have inherited his singing voice from his true father. This is as far as one can go in a scenario where the milkman's child did succeed to his legal father's throne. He was an unpopular king who lacked the martial qualities admired in his father, so bastardry was a charge people could throw at him. Singing is something done by both men and women, but coded as somewhat feminine, as seen via Brienne's POV. Supporters of Daemon Blackfyre similarly referred to "Daeron Falseborn" when he didn't fit their knightly ideal. Quote Well, but one assumes very few people would dare tell rumors about bastardy about the Conqueror's only child and heir if there were no reason to believe that Queen Rhaenys did not entertain some lovers. And it seems to be pretty clear that if she did use them to get pregnant that she did that with the connivance - and perhaps even at the behest - of King Aegon himself considering the mighty Conqueror was incapable of fathering an heir on his two sister-wives for 6-7 years since the Conquest and 8-9 years since the beginning of the wars (and some or many years before that, depending when exactly Aegon and his sisters married each other - with them already being in their mid-twenties when the Conquest began they could have been married a decade or more before the Conquest, which would mean Aegon got his first child after twenty years of marriage). The books give us many examples of bogus rumors. We even see a similar one being cooked up about Shireen. There was a rival heir in Maegor, who ultimately succeeded in taking the throne with his mother's assistance despite not actually being next in line. That same mother was in a position to hurry Aenys to his grave, and would have a motive to undermine his rule in favor of her own son. Quote We can be pretty sure Cersei and Jaime knew how likely it was that a servant would burst into the king's apartment when they had told them not to disturb them. And people hearing sounds indicating sex from the royal apartments would expect that the king and the queen were having fun - not the queen and her twin brother. They didn't know how likely it would be in other castles, yet they did so anyway. On 9/13/2019 at 5:36 PM, Lord Varys said: The way to get a king interested in a woman is to actually present her to him. Showing her a picture also sort of helps, but if I were keen to put my daughter in the bed of the king I'd definitely not be reluctant to bring her to court. Getting Margaery bedded but not wedded could be the worst of all possible outcomes from a Tyrell perspective. She's Mace's only daughter, and none of Robert's mistresses seem to have gotten anything significant from him other than bastards. He didn't even arrange for Delena Florent's marriage after he deflowered her, leaving her own family to pair her off with one of their own household knights. Quote Jon Arryn was an old man who died of an illness - there was nothing 'mysterious' about his death or else Robert would have believed that this was a strange death, too. Stannis jumped to a conclusion without sufficient evidence. Stannis came to the correct conclusion that Jon was poisoned after Stannis told him his suspicions and they both investigated Robert's known bastards to compare with Cersei's. And Littlefinger, the true culprit, also knew about the incest and planned for it to cause conflict between the Lannisters and Starks precisely because others would be able to make a similar conclusion. Quote That would mean Stannis becomes king - something Robert might fear even more than handing power to Joffrey/Cersei. Joff and Cersei were pretty clear, but Stannis has a completely different personality than Robert, and priorities and ideas that Robert views as ludicrous (like outlawing prostitution). Robert didn't get along with his prickly brother, but there's no evidence he feared what Stannis might do with power like he did Joffrey. Jon Arryn and Ned Stark were hardly party boys by any account, but Robert was fine empowering them, although he might sometimes overrule them. Quote According to Littlefinger, Margaery herself is not particularly eager to be queen. He might be right, but neither he nor the readers know what she really thinks. Quote And the funny thing is that the all-so-ambitious Tyrells are not trying to offer Margaery's hand to Joffrey after Renly's death. The Lannisters reach out to them through Littlefinger and they accept their offer - but they are not so ambitious that they try to throw Margaery on any guy who wears a crown. We don't have a POV telling us what they're up to after Renly's death. We do know that Margaery married three "kings" in fairly short succession, and in the last case we have a conspirator telling us the Tyrells actually carried out a regicide in order to ensure the ideal marriage for her. Renly might be ambitious on his own, but I don't think you can explain their post-Renly behavior without them being ambitious. On 9/14/2019 at 1:08 PM, Lord Varys said: The bestiality part is brought up by George R. R. Martin in his Varamyr Prologue and seems to be part of the life of a skinchanger and greenseer that's going to be explored - just as it is indicated that Bran does want to use Hodor to have sex with or express his love for Meera. The beastiality is something that Varamyr's mentor condemned as unacceptable for a skinchanger. Varamyr is basically a monster. Bran is still a young kid, introduced not even knowing what sex is when he sees it right in front of him. He thinks of using Hodor to comfort Meera because she and Jojen are unhappy in the cave. Quote Mace might be many things, but he is not cautious. He is rather straightforward with what he wants, and has shown countless times that he demands or takes what he wants. He is not cautious - how did you come up with that? The Tyrells have taken part in multiple civil wars, and in each case avoided taking on much risk themselves. Their assassination of King Joffrey is a rather bold move, but it stemmed from an unwillingness to risk Margaery and Loras to his sadistic whims. Quote Even if they weren't - what's a fact is that Renly had no clue about their relationship. That's not a fact, that's your conclusion, and assuming the conclusion you're trying to argue for is a logical fallacy. Quote Because Robert clearly would not like Stannis running the Seven Kingdoms. He has completely different values and policies in mind. That's not "clear". Robert didn't come to power to enact a platform and set of policies other than "don't be Aerys and Rhaegar". He's fine leaving things to his hands even if they're quite different from him. It's a possibility that he agrees with Littlefinger's statement that Stannis would make the realm bleed, but we have no evidence of that. Instead we have him granting Stannis Dragonstone, which per GRRM was his way of designating Stannis his heir in an act of "thoughtless generosity". Not thinking about Stannis' policies as king would be in keeping with that thoughtlessness. Quote But that doesn't mean all members of the house share his ambitions (his mother doesn't) and it seems some of his own sons also don't share those ambitions. Loras supported Renly's ambitions - but after his death he no longer has any agenda. He is happy to be just a Kingsguard. With Margaery as Queen, his position as Kingsguard puts him in place to protect her. Although he does leave the capital to seize Dragonstone and thereby free up ships to protect the Reach. 46 minutes ago, Lord Varys said: I think it is crucial to point out that those arranged marriages are all sick in principle. There are still some cultures with arranged marriages, and I'm not aware of evidence they're more likely to be dysfunctional than "love matches". Quote Teenagers also have meaningless flings and affairs. Not every teenage romance is idealized as a great love - especially not after the lover has been dead for some time. Somewhat off-topic, but this is an interpretation people have written about for Ned Stark and Ashara Dayne. He forbade mention of her name at Winterfell, but this was likely not terribly long after her death and Ned's return. Quote Is there any indication that sleeping around among knights and squires is seen as unmanning somebody? I don't recall any such passages. They seem to be of the view that sodomy is something a man does rather than has done to him. Jaime insults Loras with reference to Renly sodomizing him, there seem to be if anything more references to adult males having a preference for "boys" rather than men, and Satin is held in particularly low regard for his status as whore obliging him to take on a woman's role. This is consistent with the point of view prior to gay liberation when there wasn't a recognized homosexual "identity", but instead sodomy was just a kind of act that any man could engage in as an active party and have it considered a venal sin which didn't make him less of a man. The Dragon Demands had a video on the medieval perspective here: Quote Like Robert, Renly's greatest gift was to make friends. He would not have been dependent on anyone. Robert is only dependent on the Lannisters because he is a wastrel and indebted to them. Robert doesn't engage in any ambitious projects and conducted only one brief war with the Iron Islands as king. His personal spending and the tourneys aren't sufficient to nearly explain the crown's finances. Littlefinger is in charge of those finances, and he's the reason for the debt. He doesn't believe in letting coins sit idle but instead engages in endless financial schemes that Tyrion can't make heads or tails of. Quote This isn't even a question - Renly himself and George make it clear that he didn't know. You asserting that it's not a question doesn't make it so. When did George himself settle this? Quote LOL, no. Because we know Renly didn't know about the twincest. No, we don't know that and you can't assume your conclusion in order to prove it. Quote Because I don't think Robert would have ever wanted Stannis to succeed him. I think if Robert had known that his children were not his on his deathbed - if the coward Ned had told him the truth - he would have either said 'bugger that, Ned, Joffrey (or Tommen) was my son his entire life, I want him to succeed me to prevent a war'. Or he would have seriously considered naming Renly his heir. He would not have turned to Stannis. I find that wildly implausible. When he first meets back up with Ned, Robert is annoyed by his wife and her brother, and is specifically irked that Cersei "guards her cunt" from him. He despairs of Joffrey so much that he tells Ned that his fears of him and Cersei ruling is the only reason he doesn't run off to the free cities. He'd be far more enraged at the reveal that Cersei had been cuckolding him with her own brother than he was when she merely insulted his manhood. The reason Ned believes Robert would kill Cersei and her children is because that really is what he'd do. Even Stannis plans on killing her "abominations", which Catelyn views as just what you do with products of incest. And naming Stannis as his heir over Renly is precisely what Robert did prior to having Joffrey. Quote Renly didn't give a damn about hair colors. Renly wasn't close to the twins. And Renly isn't the only guy on the council who had no idea. Jon Arryn had no idea until shortly before his death, Selmy never had any idea, Littlefinger may learned only from Jon via Lysa, etc. Renly was lord of Storm's End, which is where Stannis claims the proof of Joffrey's bastardry resides. We don't get any indication that Jon told Lysa. It's not like he told her why he wanted their son fostered with Stannis, she thought he was just being callous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peach King Posted September 16, 2019 Share Posted September 16, 2019 On 9/16/2019 at 6:08 AM, Lord Varys said: Show Margaery is a moron who didn't even know grandma poisoned Joffrey. Because the king always drinks first? Because she could always spill the wine if she was the one who was supposed to drink first? Why would she purposely put herself in a situation where she had to drink? She said "Lord Buckler wants to toast us." Why not just say "Your Grace, have a drink?" And I don't remember the king always having to drink first. Margaery also didn't act like someone who knew Tyrion and Sansa were going to be framed. She constantly tried to diffuse the tension between Joffrey and Tyrion and repeatedly asked Joffrey to physically step away from Tyrion and Sansa, which put him and his chalice further away from Sansa's hairnet. Margaery isn't that smart. Her reaction to Cersei in AFFC shows that. On 9/16/2019 at 6:08 AM, Lord Varys said: The Hound is one of the best jousters in the Realm, it seems. Nobody said Renly was on his level. That was his very first joust though. Nothing indicates Renly had any interest in fighting. He liked fashion and masquerades. On 9/16/2019 at 6:08 AM, Lord Varys said: That doesn't change the fact that being the king's squire would have been much more prestigious for Loras. But then - who knows? Perhaps they tried. Perhaps Renly was only the third choice. It's not about prestige, it's about getting close to the crown. But yeah maybe they tried with Robert first. On 9/16/2019 at 6:08 AM, Lord Varys said: You are not making sense. Hundreds of highborn women attend the tourney. There is nothing wrong with Margaery being there. She would have to bring a lot of Tyrell men with her to combat the Lannisters, if her father was to offer her to Robert. There's nothing saying that Robert would believe in the incest or start a fight with the Lannisters just because she's pretty - that's why Renly had to do his matchmaking, he had to create this allure around Margaery. On 9/16/2019 at 6:08 AM, Lord Varys said: He didn't say he knew him extremely well. And explicitly states that he befriended him while he lived at court - which he did from the Tourney of the Hand until Robert's death. "Passing well" means extremely well. That was only a short time. On 9/16/2019 at 6:08 AM, Lord Varys said: But he is close to his family and he comes from Highgarden to KL in AGoT. No hint he lived at court at all. He lives at Highgarden, like Garlan and Leonette do, too. He's close to Renly too. There's plenty of hints. On 9/16/2019 at 6:08 AM, Lord Varys said: He clearly is often in the city for tourneys - both after he got his knighthood and earlier while he was visiting court with Renly (while Renly still lived at Storm's End). Where is your proof he went back to Highgarden on these occasions? The only tourney we hear of him going to is the Tourney on Joffrey's nameday. On 9/16/2019 at 6:08 AM, Lord Varys said: That doesn't follow. Loras is clearly nobody's eyes and ears after he lives at court as KG. He is no plotter. Of course it does. Tourneys only last for a few days. And there are only a few each year. There isn't time for people to pick up on a hidden relationship. I didn't say he's a plotter. But he can follow his family's orders. The Tyrells are already in KL and have the throne by the time he's KG. On 9/16/2019 at 6:08 AM, Lord Varys said: Doesn't follow - there can and have been more prestigious tourneys at Highgarden, Lannisport, and Harrenhal. The Tourney of the Hand was so immense everyone from all over the realm came to participate. On 9/16/2019 at 6:08 AM, Lord Varys said: That doesn't mean he lived there - have you never bought something while you visited a friend? And those nobles don't have to work, they can visit with people for a rather long time. Think about the process of making an armour. That takes months. And you would have to describe the armour, make multiple trips, etc. Loras is still growing so he can't use the same armour over and over again. Think about the distance from Highgarden to KL. On 9/16/2019 at 6:08 AM, Lord Varys said: How do I know? We don't know anything about the family dynamics there. But it is clear that Tyrion has rather few retainers for a couple of reasons. Tywin didn't grant him many. And nobody expected Tyrion to accompany the king to Winterfell. And Cersei/Robert didn't care to assign more men to Tyrion when they left and Tyrion stayed to visit the Wall. It is only when they go to the Wall that Tyrion is down to two servants - back as part of the king's party he may have had more. These are all more important people than Loras yet they had less men with them. So Loras probably had extra men to help with the scheme to make Margaery queen. On 9/16/2019 at 6:08 AM, Lord Varys said: I think it is crucial to point out that those arranged marriages are all sick in principle. Some turn out well, but any arranged marriage which doesn't involve spouses that are attracted to each other and would at least consider to marry if they were not forced is fundamentally twisted and an unhealthy relationship. You're looking at this with a modern perspective. These marriages were for politics, not love. On 9/16/2019 at 6:08 AM, Lord Varys said: Well, it certainly is possible that Loras just stumbled on Renly's hidden porn collection - but I honestly doubt that. Loras isn't the reading type - and neither is Renly. Yeah, you can find many such explanations, but we don't know. I mean, the cover would give it away easily. And he could have left it open. But this is kind of a dumb argument. On 9/16/2019 at 6:08 AM, Lord Varys said: I don't do that in every thread. And I'd not do that at all if the author wouldn't be constantly putting children in gross situations. Almost every thread then. I don't think Bran warging into a wolf and sticking it into another wolf was ever foreshadowed in the books. But I agree he shouldn't have made the characters so young. On 9/16/2019 at 6:08 AM, Lord Varys said: That is how they sold it. But answer me: Don't you think a gorgeous Margaery would not *help* a 9-12-year-old Tommen to *discover* his own sexuality with him? Kiss him, caress him, give him handjobs, etc.? They are married. And the marriage has to be consummated to prevent it that Margaery is set aside later on. No. On 9/16/2019 at 6:08 AM, Lord Varys said: One assumes Loras got knighted by Renly or at Renly's behest. He was his knightly master. I meant he could have been knighted at KL. On 9/16/2019 at 6:08 AM, Lord Varys said: Teenagers also have meaningless flings and affairs. Not every teenage romance is idealized as a great love - especially not after the lover has been dead for some time. Loras isn't that type of person. He's very devoted and fiercely loves his family as well - not just Renly. On 9/16/2019 at 6:08 AM, Lord Varys said: The wiki calculations have Renly as born in 277 AC, and Loras in 282 AC (based on all the evidence we get). That's five years (but certainly could be four years and a couple of months under certain conditions). There is a calculation which makes it clear 277 AC is the best year for Renly's birth. They say Renly was born in 277 AC because they take into account Renly's age at the Siege of Storm's End, which is provided by the app. Prior to that, the wiki stated he was born in 278 AC. So we can take his age given in AGOT as "near twenty" as 19 turning 20. On 9/16/2019 at 6:08 AM, Lord Varys said: And you don't take into account Tyrion's specific situation, his low self-esteem, his fear that nobody could ever love him, etc.? Tyrion is a fucked-up person, he is not representative of the average person. Actually you don't even have to be in a relationship to idealize someone as your lost love. Take Barristan and Ashara Dayne or JonCon and Rhaegar. Or Robert and Lyanna. On 9/16/2019 at 6:08 AM, Lord Varys said: That is right, but he could still have had a squire before that age (as a lord). Robb also has a squire without being a man grown or even a knight. That was part of his arrangement with the Freys and not a normal situation. Besides, Robb was forced to be a man grown because Ned was dead. On 9/16/2019 at 6:08 AM, Lord Varys said: I don't think Renly personally trained Loras at arms - they would have had masters-at-arms, of course - but that still doesn't change that Renly was Loras' master. Loras was at Renly's mercy. Wives are at their husband's mercy but that doesn't mean every husband hits and rapes his wife. In fact that's quite rare. Loras could say no and would be socialized to say no. Renly couldn't do whatever he wanted to him. On 9/16/2019 at 6:08 AM, Lord Varys said: It only means Loras spoke his mind to Renly - not that Renly often listened to Loras. He wouldn't have liked Renly so much if Renly was like "eh" to whatever he said. And he didn't just dismiss Loras - he explained his reasoning. On 9/16/2019 at 6:08 AM, Lord Varys said: That would depend when the relationship started - Renly himself is a much more forceful and determined man than Loras. I don't think so. He's rather laidback and carefree. On 9/16/2019 at 6:08 AM, Lord Varys said: I say for Loras loving Renly as much as he apparently did I think it is more reasonable to assume the relationship lasted longer. Since we don't know what Loras meant to Renly the relationship could have lasted three months or three years - we will never know. Fair. I prefer to think it started a year or so before. For Loras to idealize Renly as much as he did I think it makes more sense for him not to know everything about him, like Brienne. That's what we see with the other romanticized relationships as well (Barristan/Ashara, Jon Con/Rhaegar, Robert/Lyanna). There's also this: If they got together when Loras was 15, since Renly died when he was 21 and Loras 17 (and a few months from 18), that's 2.5 years spent as lovers. So they could still have a long and meaningful relationship if Loras was 15 when it started. I think Renly was fond of Loras, but they had different ideas on love and honour. I don't think he was using him, because seducing a third son isn't a great way to court a Great House's power. There are much better ways. He could have promised favour in court, as he's Robert's brother, used his role as Master of Laws to rule in favour of Tyrell interests, played up to Marg when she came of age, found a good match for Willas if Reach ladies were an issue, etc. If Renly wanted to get in good with a Great House, sleeping with the family favourite son would not be part of that strategy. On 9/16/2019 at 6:08 AM, Lord Varys said: The latter was my main point - the former is an interesting possibility considering that Renly was obviously not with Loras during the first half of AGoT. Could he have had affairs then? We don't know. It is possible. How is that obvious? If he did, no one ever picked up on it. On 9/16/2019 at 6:08 AM, Lord Varys said: Long could not strike Aegon III because the king's person is inviolable. But Loras Tyrell isn't the king, is he? Long still could torment Aegon III on a psychological and physical level by beating up Gaemon Palehair and by making exercises in the practice yard he clearly didn't want to do. Renly would have had greater authority over Loras - the same way Dunk has over Egg. To be clear: I'm not saying that Renly abused the power he had over Loras - I say the power dynamic was very one-sided there and that dynamic would have shaped the relationship - consciously and unconsciously. How exactly their relationship started we will never know. What we do know is that they were not two squires or knights who fell in love at a chance meeting, but that Renly was Loras' master and tutor before he became his lover. Fair. But I'm saying all relationships with a lopsided dynamic just come with feudalism and don't always have to be bad, especially a relationship which could have started after the end of the lopsided dynamic. The movie "The Handmaiden" features a relationship between a handmaiden and her lady which ends up being the a positive relationship for both of them, for an example. And Renly wasn't Loras' tutor, they would learn the same lessons since people from their rank and class wouldn't be in Storm's End (third sons from rich and powerful houses). Maybe Prince Maekar wouldn't be too happy to learn Dunk had been beating Egg. The Tyrells don't allow their children being put into situations detrimental to them. They planted Loras in the Kingsguard to protect Margaery, killed Joffrey because they feared him being abusive, and Mace dropped everything to come to Margaery's aid when she was arrested by the Faith. They would have been regularly updated on what kind of Lord Renly is. Especially after Loras is made Kingsguard, Renly would have to treat Loras well due to his heavy dependence on the Tyrells. On 9/16/2019 at 6:08 AM, Lord Varys said: Is there any indication that sleeping around among knights and squires is seen as unmanning somebody? I don't recall any such passages. It's seen as humiliating and debasing - see the treatment of Satin, who's called a catamite, among other things. And the treatment of the maester on Victarion's ship who was "used as a woman". The Faith also frowns upon homosexuality, although there are no laws against it. And the Reach is where the religion of the Faith of the Seven is the strongest. On 9/16/2019 at 6:08 AM, Lord Varys said: Not really. I mean, look at ACoK. Mace Tyrell isn't there - Renly is surrounded by Mace's bannermen and they worship and obey and advise him, Renly Baratheon. Renly has the Reach in his pocket, no matter what Mace thinks or says. If Renly and his army had taken the Iron Throne, Tarly and Rowan and Oakheart and all the others could have demanded greater rewards than Mace Tyrell - who sat on his ass along with his older sons. I wouldn't say they worship him. Randyll Tarly and Mathis Rowan were rather put off by his battle plans. I'd actually credit that to Mace. Most Lords of Highgarden utterly fail to keep control of their bannermen in any time of serious civil conflict within the realm. Mace managed it almost perfectly. Twice. During Robert's Rebellion the Reach was also fairly united. Renly told Loras everyone who followed him was self interested. I think that meant he knew the Tyrells' true motives. Not to say he didn't have charisma - he did, they followed him the usurper, over Stannis and Joffrey. On 9/16/2019 at 6:08 AM, Lord Varys said: Like Robert, Renly's greatest gift was to make friends. He would not have been dependent on anyone. Robert is only dependent on the Lannisters because he is a wastrel and indebted to them. He would have been dependent on them because they made him king. He made Mace his Hand, Margaery his queen, and Loras his Lord Commander. One could assume that the rest of his Council would be made up of Reachmen as well. And what friends could he make? Dorne is not going to join him. The Vale will stay neutral. The Westerlands, Iron Islands, the North and Riverlands won't either. Robert at least had the Stark-Tully-Arryn-Baratheon coalition. Renly would only have had the Reach and Stormlands. On 9/16/2019 at 6:08 AM, Lord Varys said: You just claim Mace is cautious - you never showed that. Alright, the reasons that Mace is cautious are : 1. His battle plan in Robert's Rebellion which consisted of playing both sides. 2. Declaring for Renly only when he had a strong numerical advantage and the kingdoms were at war - and even then, he stayed behind at Highgarden. 3. He did not commit his army to battle until the time came when the new regime needed proof of his loyalty - at the Blackwater. 4. He has been able to jump from Renly to Joffrey to Tommen with no great harm to himself. 5. Putting Loras in the Kingsguard to protect his sister as part of the deal to marry Margaery to Joffrey. 6. He has not made an enemy of any of the great kingdoms. He is greedy, but cautious. On 9/16/2019 at 6:08 AM, Lord Varys said: Bran caught them by accident. They were not exactly having sex in his bedchamber, did they? It was idiotic to have sex in some random tower. It didn't have to be Bran, it could have been anyone. On 9/16/2019 at 6:08 AM, Lord Varys said: Those were apparently rather long visits - or else there would have been no meaningful bond between Tyrion and Jaime. And Renly would take long visits to King's Landing as well and also live there for a time. On 9/16/2019 at 6:08 AM, Lord Varys said: This isn't even a question - Renly himself and George make it clear that he didn't know. LOL, no. Because we know Renly didn't know about the twincest. What FictionIsntReal said. Quote He still wanted the crown. Because he wanted adulation. On 9/16/2019 at 6:08 AM, Lord Varys said: Cersei did strip nearly all the great lords of the Realm of their lands and titles during Joffrey's first court session. All men and women who didn't do homage to King Joffrey there were attainted. Renly acted like his life was in danger. If he paid fealty to Joffrey there would have been no problem, he wouldn't have been stripped of Storm's End. On 9/16/2019 at 6:08 AM, Lord Varys said: Well, you are not Robert, so you have no clue whether Robert would have considered marrying the young Margaery a good or bad idea. I find it strange to believe that Robert would resist that suggestion. Robert doesn't want to rule. On 9/16/2019 at 6:08 AM, Lord Varys said: And that would go for any woman, no? If Robert intended to marry, he would marry a woman who would bring him something. For sex he has whores. If Robert was offered a political match by people telling him he has to marry for the good of the realm (his exact situation when he won the throne, which left him witha miserable life for 15 years) there's a very good chance he throws a tantrum and does whatever he wants. On 9/16/2019 at 6:08 AM, Lord Varys said: Haven't you read the series? In AGoT Tywin Lannister wages a war against the North, the Riverlands, the Reach, the Stormlands, and the Narrow Sea islands (in ACoK the Iron Islands join the fray). Dorne doesn't join the war, but he cannot count on them siding with him, can he? And he had every reason to expect that the Vale would stand with the Tullys and the Starks. That's essentially all the Seven Kingdoms, is it not? Tywin didn't start a war. He was forced to go to war because his dumbass grandson killed a beloved Lord Paramount and Robb rebelled against the Lannisters. On 9/16/2019 at 6:08 AM, Lord Varys said: Because I don't think Robert would have ever wanted Stannis to succeed him. I think if Robert had known that his children were not his on his deathbed - if the coward Ned had told him the truth - he would have either said 'bugger that, Ned, Joffrey (or Tommen) was my son his entire life, I want him to succeed me to prevent a war'. Or he would have seriously considered naming Renly his heir. He would not have turned to Stannis. I think you are greatly overstating Robert's dislike of Stannis. GRRM said his relations with Stannis were prickly, but he did love him. He dislikes the Lannisters much more. He had named Stannis his heir by giving him Dragonstone prior to the series. On 9/16/2019 at 6:08 AM, Lord Varys said: Renly didn't give a damn about hair colors. Renly wasn't close to the twins. And Renly isn't the only guy on the council who had no idea. Jon Arryn had no idea until shortly before his death, Selmy never had any idea, Littlefinger may learned only from Jon via Lysa, etc. But he has really no means to figure it out. I didn't say they were close, I said he lived in close proximity to them. Selmy is an idiot. Littlefinger knew way before Jon. Actually, he has several clues: 1.Overhearing or accidentally spying them 2. Stannis' suspicious flight 3. Robert spending all his time with whores, not his wife 4. The closeness of the twins 5. His contact with several true Baratheons 6. His closeness with Littlefinger 7. Spying on the other political actors in KL (Varys, Littlefinger, Jon Arryn, Stannis) 8. Since his own plan to replace Margaery was known by a few, he could hear about Stannis and Jon Arryn's investigation 9. Littlefinger's whispering campaign On 9/16/2019 at 6:08 AM, Lord Varys said: As I said, we don't know what happened in detail. And nobody ran away with anyone. All Daeron and Olenna did is not go through with their marriage. Can you prove either of those rather bold claims? Could be that she didn't like Renly because he reminded her of Daeron. But that doesn't mean she lied about opposing the silly Renly idea. I don't have proof. But it's the most likely explanation. The wiki seems to agree with me. After his three older siblings had broken their own betrothals—Duncan to marry Jenny of Oldstones, Jaehaerys and Shaera to marry each other—Daeron broke his betrothal to Olenna as well when he was eighteen years old, in 246 AC.[3] While his brothers had broken their betrothals for other women, this was not the case for Daeron. He preferred the companionship of Ser Jeremy Norridge, a young knight whom he had befriended when they were squires together at Highgarden.[3] It wasn't silly. Renly would have won easily without Stannis' shadow. On 9/16/2019 at 6:08 AM, Lord Varys said: LOL, where is your proof that Loras stayed at Bitterbridge because his father wanted the Lannisters to come to him? This shows they didn't know what to do. The alternative is Stannis - and that's something they do not want at all. So of course they were planning to go to the Lannisters. Their arrival was very timely and Garlan looked very heroic as "Renly's ghost." It was a propaganda move. On 9/16/2019 at 6:08 AM, Lord Varys said: Sure, and it is clear that Olenna is not that keen to marry her granddaughter to one of Cersei's children. She makes it clear that her son wants Margaery to be a queen - not that she or Margaery want that. She kills Joffrey to ensure Mace gets what he wants and her grandchildren are not in danger. But she would have little problems, one assumes, if Margaery was not a queen. It's what she says. We don't know. If we believe Littlefinger, he also says Margaery wants to lose her virginity. I don't think there is any indication of that. On 9/16/2019 at 3:19 AM, nyser1 said: Original Plan Marg becomes Queen and Tyrells replace Lannister as the chief socio-economical-military backer of the crown. Less problems for Renly and he can borrow money for his fancy armour, masquerades, etc. Less problems for Renly when he now has a giant target on his back from pissed off Lannisters? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyser1 Posted September 16, 2019 Share Posted September 16, 2019 22 hours ago, Lord Varys said: I'd not be surprised if Robert was actually the guy to pay for Renly's lifestyle - he could have had a royal allowance in addition to his incomes as Lord of Storm's End. But being Lord of Storm's End should also make him reasonably wealthy. The reason why Renly had issues with Cersei is unclear - that would be rather interesting and is, I think, part of the 'underdeveloped Renly problem'. The reason why Cersei had issues with Robert's problems is reasonably clear - or can at least be guessed at. Vice versa it is completely unclear. And like with many homosexual people in history the legitimacy of his children might be more in doubt than those of Robert. I don't doubt that Margaery's womb would have quickened eventually - but I'd not wager any money that Renly would have been the biological father. In the instance where Robert is paying for Renly's lifestyle - they may dislike each other for that exact reason. A competition for resources. Or Renly's presence on the Small Council and proximity in relation to Robert would always make him a threat. Or Cersei hates anyone not named Lannister. There are plenty of heterosexual males in history where the paternity has been questioned, let alone homosexual. While a brother is not a brother, having siblings who can reproduce does suggest that the odds would be in Renly's favor. Even if he visits his wife's bedchamber just as often as Stannis did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trazayn Posted September 17, 2019 Share Posted September 17, 2019 On 9/15/2019 at 7:31 PM, Lord Varys said: I'd not be surprised if Robert was actually the guy to pay for Renly's lifestyle - he could have had a royal allowance in addition to his incomes as Lord of Storm's End. But being Lord of Storm's End should also make him reasonably wealthy. The reason why Renly had issues with Cersei is unclear - that would be rather interesting and is, I think, part of the 'underdeveloped Renly problem'. The reason why Cersei had issues with Robert's problems is reasonably clear - or can at least be guessed at. Vice versa it is completely unclear. And like with many homosexual people in history the legitimacy of his children might be more in doubt than those of Robert. I don't doubt that Margaery's womb would have quickened eventually - but I'd not wager any money that Renly would have been the biological father. I think it's because she couldn't manipulate him with her sexuality. Cersei's tool box is small Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ran Posted September 17, 2019 Share Posted September 17, 2019 We know why Cersei has problems with Renly: Quote She had suffered Robert’s drunken groping, Jaime’s jealousy, Renly’s mockery, Varys with his titters, Stannis endlessly grinding his teeth. He clearly didn't give her deference and was acutely aware of his potential power and influence as Robert's brother. And as we know, she was thinking to the possibility of an early death for Robert and its aftermath, as Joffrey's uncles could concievably insist they were more appropriate guardians of the boy than his mother or grandfather. As Varys notes to ned: Quote Robert was becoming unruly, and she needed to be rid of him to free her hands to deal with his brothers. They are quite a pair, Stannis and Renly. The iron gauntlet and the silk glove. Even after Renly's death, she recognized that he would have been a much more dangerous opponent than Stannis because he understood politics while Stannis did not, as seen by Stannis demanding White Harbor's fealty while offering nothing: Quote One day she must light a candle to the Stranger for carrying Renly off and leaving Stannis. If it had been the other way around, her life would have been harder. The fact that Renly wasn't dazzled by her beauty and charms also no doubt played a part. And finally, the fact that Renly looked so much like a young Robert must have made him doubly unpleasant, given her feelings about Robert. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seams Posted September 17, 2019 Share Posted September 17, 2019 6 hours ago, Ran said: The iron gauntlet and the silk glove. Thanks for highlighting this detail! I love stuff like this. I think GRRM sets up pairs like this - Shaggy and sharp, smiler and slayer, bitter and sweet. This gives us iron and silk as a juxtaposed pair, and/or gauntlet and glove. Knowing that Renly is a glove and Stannis is a gauntlet could help us to make some guesses about the gauntlet under the bed of Walgrave, where Pate found the Citadel key that he swapped for a gold dragon. I love the detail of the silver fist and the Glover at this strategic turning point for Harrenhal: ... Arya was thinking how long it had been since he'd had a slice off a pork roast when she saw the first of the prisoners. By his bearing and the proud way he held his head, he must have been a lord. She could see mail glinting beneath his torn red surcoat. At first Arya took him for a Lannister, but when he passed near a torch she saw his device was a silver fist, not a lion. His wrists were bound behind tightly, and a rope around one ankle tied him to the man behind him, and him to the man behind him, so the whole column had to shuffle along in a lurching lockstep. "... Thith ith their lord commander, Glover, and the one behind ith Ther Aenyth Frey." Ser Amory Lorch stared down at the roped captives with his little pig eyes. [ACoK, Arya IX, Chap. 47] Arya is dreaming of sliced pork, Amory Lorch has little pig eyes and he is fated to die soon. (As is Vargo Hoat, whose meat-like execution is a close match for Arya's desire for sliced meat.) At Renly's death, chatting with Catelyn and Lord Rowan: "Maester Cressen told Stannis that we might be forced to eat our dead, and there was no gain in flinging away good meat." ... "The Lannisters tried to kill my son Bran. ... Robert and Ned and most of the other men rode out after boar, but Jaime Lannister remained at Winterfell, as did the queen." ... Renly pulled a lobstered green-and-gold gauntlet over his left hand, while Brienne knelt to buckle on his belt, heavy with the weight of longsword and dagger. ... "Cold," said Renly in a small puzzled voice, a heartbeat before the steel of his gorget parted like cheesecloth beneath the shadow of a blade that was not there. ... [ACoK, Catelyn IV, Chap. 33] Cheesecloth isn't much like silk, but they have similar power to stop the blade of a sword. The other symbols line up: meat, pig/boar, gauntlet. Throwing down and taking up a gauntlet is a symbolic way of showing a desire to fight or acceptance of a challenge. What can we learn about Renly (and Stannis) by comparing silk and steel, gloves and gauntlets? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Varys Posted September 17, 2019 Share Posted September 17, 2019 12 hours ago, Ran said: We know why Cersei has problems with Renly: He clearly didn't give her deference and was acutely aware of his potential power and influence as Robert's brother. And as we know, she was thinking to the possibility of an early death for Robert and its aftermath, as Joffrey's uncles could concievably insist they were more appropriate guardians of the boy than his mother or grandfather. As Varys notes to ned: Even after Renly's death, she recognized that he would have been a much more dangerous opponent than Stannis because he understood politics while Stannis did not, as seen by Stannis demanding White Harbor's fealty while offering nothing: The fact that Renly wasn't dazzled by her beauty and charms also no doubt played a part. And finally, the fact that Renly looked so much like a young Robert must have made him doubly unpleasant, given her feelings about Robert. Granted, we have to keep in mind that the mockery tidbit could refer to Renly mocking Joffrey and his sword in AGoT, it doesn't have to refer to Renly mocking Cersei herself (if he did that, we never get a concrete example). Originally, Cersei wanted to keep Robert around some more to deal with Stannis and Renly first - her hands were forced by Ned's investigation and the godswood confrontation. Back in Winterfell she makes it clear to Jaime that Joffrey has to become sooner rather than later so they are can all be safer, i.e. the truth about the parentage of the children can either never come out or never truly hurt them. If there are no legitimate Baratheons around - i.e. if Stannis and Renly are either dead or disgraced or in exile when Robert dies then Joffrey, Tommen, Myrcella, Cersei, and Jaime have nothing to fear. I assume this is the main reason for her issues with both brothers - in addition to their own ambitions, of course. Renly is openly ambitious and seems to be coveting the crown (or at least have no issue with the notion that he would make as good - or better - a king as Robert) and Stannis has a lot of suppressed ambition and pride that could cause him to become a danger to her children if he were to suspect - as he eventually does - that his nephews and niece are not exactly his nephews and niece. The idea that Cersei feared that Stannis/Renly would try to wrest away the regency from her or Tywin is not all that convincing to me considering that I could see Cersei planning to kill Robert only when Joffrey was already 15-16 (or perhaps even later). We have no clue how she planned to deal with Renly and Stannis, but one would assume that she would have to carefully set up a net of intrigues to ruin them, get themselves killed, or arranged murders that looked like accidents or natural deaths. They were both young and healthy men, and it would have been rather dangerous for her to have them killed in too obvious a manner in just a couple of months. And she herself confirms she ideally wanted them gone before Robert went into his grave. But the fact that she feared Renly more than Stannis can imply she may have indeed planned to kill Renly while being content to merely ruin Stannis - one can certainly see her fueling the resentment between these two, resulting in Robert eventually taking Dragonstone from Stannis, bestowing it on Joffrey instead. A Stannis without a lordship as his power base wouldn't have been much of a threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peach King Posted September 17, 2019 Share Posted September 17, 2019 I'm going to lay out the Margaery scheme scene by scene here (with personal commentary you might agree or disagree with, I don't know):Eddard IV:Littlefinger smiled and handed the paper to Ned. It bore the royal seal. Ned broke the wax with his thumb and flattened the letter to consider the king’s urgent command, reading the words with mounting disbelief. Was there no end to Robert’s folly? And to do this in his name, that was salt in the wound. “Gods be good,” he swore. “What Lord Eddard means to say,” Lord Renly announced, “is that His Grace instructs us to stage a great tournament in honor of his appointment as the Hand of the King.” Ned arrives in King's Landing. A tourney is immediately announced. This is important because if someone heard of his (and thus Robert's) arrival and decided to go to King's Landing, their arrival would coincide with the ones who arrived for the tourney.Eddard VI:“It’s the hand’s tourney that’s the cause of all the trouble, my lords,” the commander of the city watch complained to the king’s council. “The king’s tourney,” Ned corrected, wincing. “I assure you, the Hand wants no part of it.” “Call it what you will, my lord. Knights have been arriving from all over the realm, and for every knight we get two freeriders, three craftsmen, six men-at-arms, a dozen merchants, two dozen whores, and more thieves than I dare guess. This cursed heat had half the city in a fever to start, and now with all these visitors… last night we had a drowning, a tavern riot, three knife fights, a rape, two fires, robberies beyond count, and a drunken horse race down the Street of the Sisters. The night before a woman’s head was found in the Great Sept, floating in the rainbow pool. No one seems to know how it got there or who it belongs to.”Ned was not sure what to make of Renly, with all his friendly ways and easy smiles. A few days past, he had taken Ned aside to show him an exquisite rose gold locklet. Inside was a miniature painted in the vivid Myrish style, of a lovely young girl with doe’s eyes and a cascade of soft brown hair. Renly had seemed anxious to know if the girl reminded him of anyone, and when Ned had no answer but a shrug, he had seemed disappointed. The maid was Loras Tyrell’s sister Margaery, he’d confessed, but there were those who said she looked like Lyanna. “No,” Ned had told him, bemused. Could it be that Lord Renly, who looked so like a young Robert, had conceived a passion for a girl he fancied to be a young Lyanna? That struck him as more than passing queer. Four things: 1. Renly puts his scheme into action only from when Loras would "arrive for the tourney." (He lived at court (though we don't actually know if Loras was or was not in the city) 2. The portrait must have been recently painted because Ned does not find it odd that Renly is interested in Margaery, and he views even 15 year olds as children. 3. 1 and 2 tells me Loras came to the city to help Renly with the plan, and must have been in Highgarden to hash it out with his family. 4. It also implies the Tyrells came up with the plan, as Renly did not do anything before Loras came to the city. (That's relative though.)Eddard VII:Have you seen Mace Tyrell’s boy? The Knight of Flowers, they call him. Now there’s a son any man would be proud to own to. Last tourney, he dumped the Kingslayer on his golden rump, you ought to have seen the look on Cersei’s face. I laughed till my sides hurt. Renly says he has this sister, a maid of fourteen, lovely as a dawn…” Renly has been talking to Robert about Margaery.Arya III: The Knight of Flowers writes Highgarden, urging his lord father to send his sister to court. The girl is a maid of fourteen, sweet and beautiful and tractable, and Lord Renly and Ser Loras intend that Robert should bed her, wed her, and make a new queen. Loras tells Mace to send Margaery to court. But things happen in rapid succession in order to prevent that.Eddard VIII:You are the King’s Hand, Lord Stark. You will do as I command you, or I’ll find me a Hand who will.” “I wish him every success.” Ned unfastened the heavy clasp that clutched at the folds of his cloak, the ornate silver hand that was his badge of office. He laid it on the table in front of the king, saddened by the memory of the man who had pinned it on him, the friend he had loved. “I thought you a better man than this, Robert. I thought we had made a nobler king.” Robert’s face was purple. “Out,” he croaked, choking on his rage. “Out, damn you, I’m done with you. What are you waiting for? Go, run back to Winterfell. And make certain I never look on your face again, or I swear, I’ll have your head on a spike!” Ned bowed, and turned on his heel without another word.Eddard IX:Ned’s horse slipped under him and came crashing down in the mud. There was a moment of blinding pain and the taste of blood in his mouth. Ned quits his position as Hand, and then gets crippled.Eddard X:A white hart had been sighted in the kingswood, and Lord Renly and Ser Barristan had joined the king to hunt it, along with Prince Joffrey, Sandor Clegane, Balon Swann, and half the court. Robert leaves for the Hunt.Eddard XIII:They had done what they could to close him up, but it was nowhere near enough. The boar must have been a fearsome thing. It had ripped the king from groin to nipple with its tusks. The wine-soaked bandages that Grand Maester Pycelle had applied were already black with blood, and the smell off the wound was hideous. Robert gets critically injured.“Strike! Now, while the castle sleeps.” Renly looked back at Ser Boros again and droppedhis voice to an urgent whisper. “We must get Joffrey away from his mother and take him in hand. Lord Protector or no, the man who holds the king holds the kingdom. We should seize Myrcella and Tommen as well. Once we have her children, Cersei will not dare oppose us. The council will confirm you as Lord Protector and make Joffrey your ward.” Ned regarded him coldly. “Robert is not dead yet. The gods may spare him. If not, I shall convene the council to hear his final words and consider the matter of the succession, but I will not dishonor his last hours on earth by shedding blood in his halls and dragging frightened children from their beds.” Lord Renly took a step back, taut as a bowstring. “Every moment you delay gives Cersei another moment to prepare. By the time Robert dies, it may be too late… for both of us.” “Then we should pray that Robert does not die.” “Small chance of that,” said Renly. “Sometimes the gods are merciful.” “The Lannisters are not.” Lord Renly turned away and went back across the moat, to the tower where his brother lay dying. Now that the Margaery plan is bashed to the ground, Renly shifts to enlisting Ned's help in a coup. He is panicked.Eddard XIII:Varys gave him a sorrowful look. “I fear Lord Renly has left the city.” “Left the city?” Ned had counted on Renly’s support. “He took his leave through a postern gate an hour before dawn, accompanied by Ser Loras Tyrell and some fifty retainers,” Varys told them. “When last seen, they were galloping south in some haste, no doubt bound for Storm’s End or Highgarden. Renly has fled the city, he must have felt he is in considerable danger. Since Littlefinger says he has 30 men in his personal guard, that means Loras has 20. A rather high amount for a third son. Might be significant, might be not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peach King Posted September 17, 2019 Share Posted September 17, 2019 I'm going to address a few things here: Reasons Renly might not immediately tell Robert: 1. Robert might abdicate the throne in favour of Stannis 2. Renly might not have had adequate proof 3. Robert might not believe Renly unless he has a very good reason to pick a fight with the Lannisters. That reason would be Margaery's beauty 4. Renly doesn't gain the same advantages without the Tyrells assuming power 5. Renly might also have just wanted to help the Tyrells out Reasons Renly might not tell Ned: 1. That would make Stannis the royal heir 2. Ned might not believe him 3. Renly needed hostages to keep Tywin at bay, if the incest came out the children could be executed 4. Ned might think it's a made up lie for Renly to sieze power 5. Ned might ask why Renly was keeping it to himself and view Renly as dishonorable - and so trust him even less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
argonak Posted September 17, 2019 Share Posted September 17, 2019 23 minutes ago, Peach King said: Renly has fled the city, he must have felt he is in considerable danger. Since Littlefinger says he has 30 men in his personal guard, that means Loras has 20. A rather high amount for a third son. Might be significant, might be not. Renly is a lord paramount. I'm surprised he only has 30 men in his personal guard. 300 sounds more reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peach King Posted September 17, 2019 Share Posted September 17, 2019 1 minute ago, argonak said: Renly is a lord paramount. I'm surprised he only has 30 men in his personal guard. 300 sounds more reasonable. Ned also only brought 100 men south with him. Bronze Yohn and Lady Tanda had only 15 or 10 men each, so I don't think it's that unreasonable. 300 men in my opinion is calling for war. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
argonak Posted September 17, 2019 Share Posted September 17, 2019 8 minutes ago, Peach King said: Ned also only brought 100 men south with him. Bronze Yohn and Lady Tanda had only 15 or 10 men each, so I don't think it's that unreasonable. 300 men in my opinion is calling for war. Yeah, and I thought Ned was a complete fool for bringing only 100 men with him. Bronze Yohn and Lady Tanda are lesser lords. Ned and Renly are heads of state for what are essentially semi-independent tributary countries. Now if Robert were to order them to show up with such small forces that would be one thing, but he didn't seem to care. Westeros is a wild unruly land full of bandits, barbarians, sellswords, rebels, and civil strife. Rich and powerful men wandering around unguarded are just asking to be kidnapped for ransom. But I guess when you think about it, Catelyn, Tyrion, and quite a few other important people wander all over the place with hardly any guards, so I guess its a widespread form of stupidity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peach King Posted September 17, 2019 Share Posted September 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, argonak said: Yeah, and I thought Ned was a complete fool for bringing only 100 men with him. Bronze Yohn and Lady Tanda are lesser lords. Ned and Renly are heads of state for what are essentially semi-independent tributary countries. Now if Robert were to order them to show up with such small forces that would be one thing, but he didn't seem to care. Westeros is a wild unruly land full of bandits, barbarians, sellswords, rebels, and civil strife. Rich and powerful men wandering around unguarded are just asking to be kidnapped for ransom. But I guess when you think about it, Catelyn, Tyrion, and quite a few other important people wander all over the place with hardly any guards, so I guess its a widespread form of stupidity. I'll have to disagree here. If Ned had brought 300 men down south with him, Cersei would have felt threatened and demanded even more Lannister guards to combat their numbers. Tensions would run high and fighting might even break out. What he should have done was gotten the loyalty of the goldcloaks from the get-go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
argonak Posted September 17, 2019 Share Posted September 17, 2019 1 minute ago, Peach King said: I'll have to disagree here. If Ned had brought 300 men down south with him, Cersei would have felt threatened and demanded even more Lannister guards to combat their numbers. Tensions would run high and fighting might even break out. What he should have done was gotten the loyalty of the goldcloaks from the get-go. The Goldcloaks are jumped up thugs paid in gold. Their loyalty would always be suspect, and I'd be concerned for their effectiveness in combat. They're little better than militia and their primary function is maintaining order and guarding the gates of King's landing. What's odd is that there is very little mention of Robert's own household guards. As King of Westeros he should have a large compliment of such. The goldcloaks are clearly NOT a household guard, so where are they? The Kingsguard are too few in number and their normal focus is on guarding the king's physical person. Maybe this is a topic for a different post though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Varys Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 2 hours ago, Peach King said: I'm going to address a few things here: Reasons Renly might not immediately tell Robert: 1. Robert might abdicate the throne in favour of Stannis 2. Renly might not have had adequate proof 3. Robert might not believe Renly unless he has a very good reason to pick a fight with the Lannisters. That reason would be Margaery's beauty 4. Renly doesn't gain the same advantages without the Tyrells assuming power 5. Renly might also have just wanted to help the Tyrells out Reasons Renly might not tell Ned: 1. That would make Stannis the royal heir 2. Ned might not believe him 3. Renly needed hostages to keep Tywin at bay, if the incest came out the children could be executed 4. Ned might think it's a made up lie for Renly to sieze power 5. Ned might ask why Renly was keeping it to himself and view Renly as dishonorable - and so trust him even less. Renly makes it clear he did not know (or care) when the stuff is later discussed in ACoK. If he did know, he would have told his brothers or Ned - or he would have at least considered doing that. But there is no indications that he did. Instead, he basically said he did not know: Quote The naked threat fanned her [Catelyn's] fury. “You are very free to name others traitor and usurper, my lord, yet how are you any different? You say you alone are the rightful king, yet it seems to me that Robert had two sons. By all the laws of the Seven Kingdoms, Prince Joffrey is his rightful heir, and Tommen after him … and we are all traitors, however good our reasons.” Renly laughed. “You must forgive Lady Catelyn, Stannis. She’s come all the way down from Riverrun, a long way ahorse. I fear she never saw your little letter.” “Joffrey is not my brother’s child,” Stannis said bluntly. “Nor is Tommen. They are bastards. The girl as well. All three of them abominations born of incest.” Would even Cersei be so mad? Catelyn was speechless. “Isn’t that a sweet story, my lady?” Renly asked. “I was camped at Horn Hill when Lord Tarly received his letter, and I must say, it took my breath away.” He smiled at his brother. “I had never suspected you were so clever, Stannis. Were it only true, you would indeed be Robert’s heir.” “Were it true? Do you name me a liar?” “Can you prove any word of this fable?” Stannis ground his teeth. Robert could never have known, Catelyn thought, or Cersei would have lost her head in an instant. “Lord Stannis,” she asked, “if you knew the queen to be guilty of such monstrous crimes, why did you keep silent?” “I did not keep silent,” Stannis declared. “I brought my suspicions to Jon Arryn.” “Rather than your own brother?” “My brother’s regard for me was never more than dutiful,” said Stannis. “From me, such accusations would have seemed peevish and self-serving, a means of placing myself first in the line of succession. I believed Robert would be more disposed to listen if the charges came from Lord Arryn, whom he loved.” “Ah,” said Renly. “So we have the word of a dead man.” “Do you think he died by happenstance, you purblind fool? Cersei had him poisoned, for fear he would reveal her. Lord Jon had been gathering certain proofs—” “—which doubtless died with him. How inconvenient.” Catelyn was remembering, fitting pieces together. “My sister Lysa accused the queen of killing her husband in a letter she sent me at Winterfell,” she admitted. “Later, in the Eyrie, she laid the murder at the feet of the queen’s brother Tyrion.” Stannis snorted. “If you step in a nest of snakes, does it matter which one bites you first?” “All this of snakes and incest is droll, but it changes nothing. You may well have the better claim, Stannis, but I still have the larger army.” Renly doesn't give a shit. Not about the incest, not about claims, and certainly not about procedure. He wants the crown, and he intends to take it like Robert. End of story. He has no reason at this point to dismiss Stannis' story - because he is determined to claim the throne against Stannis and Cersei's children in any case. He could admit that he believed Stannis' story - or that he himself had had similar suspicions in the past - and still not give up his designs to make himself because that's exactly what he does in his last sentence there. Once Stannis and Catelyn put the story together Renly just spits on their arguments and points to the size of his army. Had he known or suspected earlier he certainly would have used that knowledge to destroy Cersei. He would have used it to make Margaery Robert's queen. He would have used it to get closer to the throne. If Robert suddenly has no legitimate children then Renly comes immediately after Stannis (or Shireen) in the line of succession. That would improve his own position in any scenario. In fact, if Ned told him when Renly made his offer to Ned, that revelation could have changed Renly's decision even then because he could have realized that, by publicly denouncing Cersei's children as bastards and abominations, he could have staged a coup in KL not to seize the regency of young King Joffrey, but to crown himself king before Stannis on distant Dragonstone would even learn that his royal brother had died (sort of like the Greens did when Viserys I died). Instead he runs away. It is utter silliness to assume Renly would leave KL to Cersei if he knew that her children were just bastards born of incest. A man as popular and well-loved as Renly could have quickly spread the tale through KL, ensuring the people either stand with him or at least not against him. Instead he runs away. You just invent ad hoc explanations as to why Renly could have known when there is in fact simply no textual evidence to so much as entertain the notion that Renly did know. The time to assume somebody knows something in reality and in fiction is when you have reason to believe he actually does know - not when it is theoretically possible that he does know. Because theoretically a lot of things are possible that are very, very unlikely. As for guardsmen stuff: You have to keep in mind that wealth is a rather crucial factor here. It is no surprise that the Lannisters have a massive contingent of guardsmen at court - they can afford that. Just as the Tyrells and the Hightowers can. Others, even greater houses, either can't or don't care to fund such overkills. Ned is both not exactly the most wealthy of the great lords nor exactly a guy who wants to be seen as this fancy lord with a huge private army. 2 hours ago, argonak said: The Goldcloaks are jumped up thugs paid in gold. Their loyalty would always be suspect, and I'd be concerned for their effectiveness in combat. They're little better than militia and their primary function is maintaining order and guarding the gates of King's landing. Yeah, the goldcloaks are the city militia/police. It is not their job to man or defend the walls of the Red Keep or protect the royal family and court when they are traveling, etc. 2 hours ago, argonak said: What's odd is that there is very little mention of Robert's own household guards. As King of Westeros he should have a large compliment of such. The goldcloaks are clearly NOT a household guard, so where are they? The Kingsguard are too few in number and their normal focus is on guarding the king's physical person. Maybe this is a topic for a different post though. I think this is part of the conceptional issues of AGoT. When we go back to the original outline then Robert has no brothers there, and the Lannisters (Evil Jaime) eventually usurp the throne. For this go smoothly it makes sense to establish that the king has no strong power base of his own. There are remnants of that still there in the finished book. Robert is, for all intents and purposes, a lonely king surrounded by Lannisters. They and their men are there, and none loyal to him, Robert, when a man like him should be surrounded by drinking buddies and childhood friends (knights and lords from the Stormlands) left and right. When he goes hunting he should be accompanied by contingents of those fierce archers from the Dornish Marches, and the court should be filled with young Stormlanders serving their hero as squires and household knights. Robert's great gift was his charisma and his ability to make friends ... yet apparently he had none is his last year. That doesn't make much sense. We don't even hear of Stormlanders who had a falling-out with him or prefer for other reasons to reside at their castles rather than court. A Baratheon court should be bursting with Stormlanders. If George had taken some more time - or had done more rewriting in the later phases of AGoT - he could have added old Stormlander friends of Robert's living at court who later support King Joffrey rather than Stannis or Renly because they honestly believe Cersei's children are Robert's. But there is not even one such person which is actually rather sad when you think about it. One hopes George doesn't make the Dragonkeepers disappear into thin air after the Dance. Aegon III and his successors could transform that order of knights into some sort of royal guard protecting the castles and holdings of House Targaryen. That could then give at least the kings before Robert some sort of a personal guard that would actually be effective, unlikely the Kingsguard which is at best a symbolic protection. One could even re-invent or retcon those sets of Targaryen armor Ned sees in the hall to the secret exit as remnants of Dragonkeeper armor. But thinking about those guys for a moment: Since we know they were also stationed on Dragonstone - isn't it a plot hole that they did not feature at all when Aegon II took Dragonstone during the Dance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peach King Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 12 hours ago, Lord Varys said: Renly makes it clear he did not know (or care) when the stuff is later discussed in ACoK. If he did know, he would have told his brothers or Ned - or he would have at least considered doing that. But there is no indications that he did. Instead, he basically said he did not know. Revealing to Robert that he had been cuckolded would earn him a punch in the face. And I gave you reasons why he might not tell Robert and Ned. Renly also said he had 50 men in his personal guard, when he actually had 30. 12 hours ago, Lord Varys said: Renly doesn't give a shit. Not about the incest, not about claims, and certainly not about procedure. He wants the crown, and he intends to take it like Robert. End of story. If he didn't care, then why did he keep the truth of the incest to himself and ask Catelyn for her opinion? Judging by how he's talking, he mostly wanted to piss Stannis off. This was a private parley, and he said "you might have the better claim" not that "you're the rightful king", he's admitting Stannis comes ahead of him. No one believed Stannis anyway. They're both traitors, but one is an unpopular traitor and the other one is the better looking traitor. 12 hours ago, Lord Varys said: Had he known or suspected earlier he certainly would have used that knowledge to destroy Cersei. He would have used it to make Margaery Robert's queen. He would have used it to get closer to the throne. If Robert suddenly has no legitimate children then Renly comes immediately after Stannis (or Shireen) in the line of succession. That would improve his own position in any scenario. As, I said, it is necessary for Renly to get Robert attached to Margaery first. You assume his endgame is removing Cersei, but it's only when Robert is dead that he fears her. Stannis being king is not a much better scenario for Renly. Renly dislikes Stannis much more than Robert does - and you yourself said Robert would never allow him to be king. If you think about it, it's the same reason Varys and Littlefinger don't reveal the incest. After Stannis is dead, Renly suddenly deciding to adopt the story of the incest is a much better course of action for him. 12 hours ago, Lord Varys said: In fact, if Ned told him when Renly made his offer to Ned, that revelation could have changed Renly's decision even then because he could have realized that, by publicly denouncing Cersei's children as bastards and abominations, he could have staged a coup in KL not to seize the regency of young King Joffrey, but to crown himself king before Stannis on distant Dragonstone would even learn that his royal brother had died (sort of like the Greens did when Viserys I died). Instead he runs away. It is utter silliness to assume Renly would leave KL to Cersei if he knew that her children were just bastards born of incest. A man as popular and well-loved as Renly could have quickly spread the tale through KL, ensuring the people either stand with him or at least not against him. Instead he runs away. I can think of a few more reasons Renly did not sieze power in KL: a) He has no proof of the incest. And the city is filled with Lannister men and is controlled by Cersei and co - Renly has only about a 100 swords even with allies. Power resides where men believe it to be, and Renly understands that. That's why Ned's paper claiming regency was useless. Renly couldn't have just claimed the incest and had people follow him. Look at the reaction to Stannis in ACOK (Granted, he is a lot more unpopular than Renly, but people might view Renly as treasonous scum too). Who is going to believe that the Lannister heirs are the products of treasonous incest between twins, how oh so convenient for Renly, the king's brother. Especially since he only decided to spread the news after the king was dead. The goldcloaks and redcloaks by themselves will outnumber any army in the city, and they're not going to go on Renly's side because their employers are incestuous bastards. They go where the money goes. Yeah all that would do is land Renly in jail alongside Ned Stark. That's why Renly proposes grabbing the children. If Ned and Renly controlled the children the Lannisters would be screwed big time. The children are the means to securing the throne. The Lannisters can’t use their 2000 men to overwhelm the 100, because otherwise Ned and Renly might kill the children. Who knows, maybe Renly was planning on releasing the incest and putting himself on the throne once the children were in his custody. b) But when Ned refuses, Renly learns Ned would never put children in danger, and so its useless to tell him of the incest. So he flees. c) Now Renly has no more stake in whether the incest is true or not. But Stannis does. 12 hours ago, Lord Varys said: You just invent ad hoc explanations as to why Renly could have known when there is in fact simply no textual evidence to so much as entertain the notion that Renly did know. The time to assume somebody knows something in reality and in fiction is when you have reason to believe he actually does know - not when it is theoretically possible that he does know. Because theoretically a lot of things are possible that are very, very unlikely. If Renly feared the Lannisters, getting Cersei put aside and incurring the wrath of Tywin and Cersei's children when they come to power, especially since most lords of the realm would consider his actions illegitimate and stand with Joffrey, is not the way to nullify them as a threat. If Renly hated the Lannisters, he would have tried harder to ream the Lannisters in the Joffrey and Mycah situation. So we can conclude that Renly wanted something else from removing Cersei as queen. If the Tyrells wanted grandchildren on the throne, getting Cersei put aside and leaving her children in the line of succession is not the way. There are basically no cases where a marriage with male children has been annulled. Renly has the spitting image of Robert Baratheon in his own home, and he himself is the spitting image of Robert Baratheon. If Renly knew of the incest, his plan would be to get Robert infatuated with Margaery and then reveal the incest. He would profit from having the Tyrells as the backers of the crown and be seen as a hero. Renly mostly wants to get his ego stroked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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