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Angel Eyes

Renly's Plan and what he knew.

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9 hours ago, argonak said:

But I guess when you think about it, Catelyn, Tyrion, and quite a few other important people wander all over the place with hardly any guards, so I guess its a widespread form of stupidity.

Big companies of guards cost money, and can slow you down. Historically, there's accounts of kings riding off with just a couple of companions on occasion, so I think the idea that everyone just marches around with maximal retinues is actually fairly unrealistic.

Similarly with the size of the personal guards people like Renly or Ned have. The numbers they bring with them to court appear to be sensible, since no one ever questions them.

 

As to household guards of the king, they do exist -- Ned took in a couple of freeriders into Robert's service in King's Landing -- but it seems Robert only kept a limited number of them for whatever reason.

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8 hours ago, Peach King said:

Revealing to Robert that he had been cuckolded would earn him a punch in the face. And I gave you reasons why he might not tell Robert and Ned. Renly also said he had 50 men in his personal guard, when he actually had 30.

Nobody said he would have to tell him directly - Stannis didn't do that, either. He could have spread rumors, though. What do you think the court and the king would have done if half the city had whispered behind their backs about how Cersei's children were actually Jaime's. That would have been a poison that would have led to Cersei's destruction. Robert didn't love her, as she herself points out.

Not to mention that Renly could have repeated the game of the Unworthy, using a catspaw to accuse the queen of adultery. He wouldn't have been forced to come forth himself.

The reasons you are giving why Renly might have not told anyone don't enable to make a case that Renly knew.

8 hours ago, Peach King said:

If he didn't care, then why did he keep the truth of the incest to himself and ask Catelyn for her opinion?

Because he wanted to present a united Renly-Stannis anti-Lannister front. He did not want Cat to learn that Stannis also made a claim to the Iron Throne.

8 hours ago, Peach King said:

Judging by how he's talking, he mostly wanted to piss Stannis off.

He makes it clear he does not believe Stannis' story. It would be your job to prove that Renly was lying there - that he both knew about the incest before Stannis told him and that he cared about it. But there is no such evidence to be found.

8 hours ago, Peach King said:

This was a private parley, and he said "you might have the better claim" not that "you're the rightful king", he's admitting Stannis comes ahead of him.

Which he would in any case considering that he is his older brother. But he outright says that Stannis would be Robert's heir if his fable was true ... which he apparently does not believe to be the case. And when Cat and Stannis give him some 'evidence' he makes it clear that even if they could convince them - which he is not - it wouldn't change that he wanted and would take the throne.

8 hours ago, Peach King said:

As, I said, it is necessary for Renly to get Robert attached to Margaery first. You assume his endgame is removing Cersei, but it's only when Robert is dead that he fears her.

Stannis being king is not a much better scenario for Renly. Renly dislikes Stannis much more than Robert does - and you yourself said Robert would never allow him to be king. If you think about it, it's the same reason Varys and Littlefinger don't reveal the incest.

It makes no sense to assume that Renly would not use the incest in his plan to replace Cersei with Margaery - because, you know, Cersei would not go quietly. Robert falling for and fucking Margaery would not make her queen. For that Renly would have to convince Robert to actually set his marriage to Cersei aside - which would have been a big thing to do.

The idea that he would not have used a thing that completely destroy Cersei and House Lannister's standing at court is just hilarious. That makes no sense at all.

And man - knowing that Cersei and Jaime fuck each other is not the same as proving Cersei's children are not Robert. If Renly had known about the incest and had not wanted to make Stannis the presumptive heir to the Iron Throne (until such a time as Robert and Margaery had children, which should have happened pretty fast) he could have just destroyed Cersei/Jaime by claiming that they started an affair AFTER the birth of Tommen. That would have taken care only of Cersei while not making Cersei's children bastards born of incest (especially if Robert had continued to believe they were his, as he had done since they were born).

8 hours ago, Peach King said:

After Stannis is dead, Renly suddenly deciding to adopt the story of the incest is a much better course of action for him. 

Since that never happened there is no way to even entertain this notion. But guess what - since Stannis told Renly about the incest there would be no way of knowing why he would be doing that if Renly had buried Stannis rather than the other way around.

8 hours ago, Peach King said:

I can think of a few more reasons Renly did not sieze power in KL:

a) He has no proof of the incest. And the city is filled with Lannister men and is controlled by Cersei and co - Renly has only about a 100 swords even with allies. Power resides where men believe it to be, and Renly understands that. That's why Ned's paper claiming regency was useless.

That is overstating it. Cersei has to bribe the City Watch. And she has to put down Ned's people. Together Ned and Renly could have won the day. And Renly certainly would have tried to convince Ned that if Robert left no legitimate heirs of his body he was the Baratheon best suited to the crown, not Stannis.

8 hours ago, Peach King said:

Renly couldn't have just claimed the incest and had people follow him. Look at the reaction to Stannis in ACOK (Granted, he is a lot more unpopular than Renly, but people might view Renly as treasonous scum too).  Who is going to believe that the Lannister heirs are the products of treasonous incest between twins, how oh so convenient for Renly, the king's brother. Especially since he only decided to spread the news after the king was dead.

We are talking KL here - and the Kingslanders hate the Lannisters since the Sack. We know Renly is quite popular with them.

And we are talking about the plan Renly actually pitches to Ned - with the addendum that Renly is crowned king once they have Cersei and the children in their power, not Joffrey. That's what Renly would have done had he known his brother's children were not his. In fact, Renly would have told Robert all that after the boar ravaged him to ensure his brother the king disowned and condemned Cersei and her brats in his last hours.

It makes no sense the guy would remain silent about that. Especially considering that he is very calculating.

8 hours ago, Peach King said:

The goldcloaks and redcloaks by themselves will outnumber any army in the city, and they're not going to go on Renly's side because their employers are incestuous bastards. They go where the money goes.

So Renly and Loras have no money to offer the City Watch? And Littlefinger - who actually paid them and controlled Slynt, their commander - would rather side with Cersei than Ned and Renly? When he actually suggested that they eventually make the latter king?

8 hours ago, Peach King said:

That's why Renly proposes grabbing the children. If Ned and Renly controlled the children the Lannisters would be screwed big time. The children are the means to securing the throne. The Lannisters can’t use their 2000 men to overwhelm the 100, because otherwise Ned and Renly might kill the children. Who knows, maybe Renly was planning on releasing the incest and putting himself on the throne once the children were in his custody. 

Nope, he didn't know about that.

8 hours ago, Peach King said:

b) But when Ned refuses, Renly learns Ned would never put children in danger, and so its useless to tell him of the incest. So he flees.

That would be the behavior of a lackwit.

8 hours ago, Peach King said:

If Renly feared the Lannisters, getting Cersei put aside and incurring the wrath of Tywin and Cersei's children when they come to power, especially since most lords of the realm would consider his actions illegitimate and stand with Joffrey, is not the way to nullify them as a threat.

We don't know that Renly feared Cersei while he wanted to make Margaery the new queen. We just know he wanted to do that, presumably because he loathed Cersei's influence and role at court.

8 hours ago, Peach King said:

If Renly hated the Lannisters, he would have tried harder to ream the Lannisters in the Joffrey and Mycah situation. So we can conclude that Renly wanted something else from removing Cersei as queen.

No, we can not conclude that

8 hours ago, Peach King said:

If the Tyrells wanted grandchildren on the throne, getting Cersei put aside and leaving her children in the line of succession is not the way. There are basically no cases where a marriage with male children has been annulled.

There is no evidence that the Tyrells wanted a grandson on the Iron Throne. As has been repeatedly told you, Mace likes the idea of his daughter being queen, not his grandson being king. The latter can follow the former, but it doesn't have to. Your daughter being queen can be very profitable, too.

And while it is clear that it is unclear how Renly thought he would get rid of the Cersei-Robert marriage it is quite clear that this was a realistic scenario considering Cersei herself feared Robert would set her aside for a new Lyanna. This means while we don't have a precedent for this kind of thing in recent years (ancient First Men kings set aside wives who gave them children in favor of new Andal brides) both the brother of the king and the king's wife thought or feared that could happen. You cannot argue against those established facts.

8 hours ago, Peach King said:

Renly has the spitting image of Robert Baratheon in his own home, and he himself is the spitting image of Robert Baratheon.

Robert Baratheon also knows how he and Renly look, yet he doesn't believe the golden-haired children of his wife are not his seed.

In fact, those looks are neither evidence nor prove. You have to have a suspicion to interpret the hair color as 'evidence'. And there are people like Renly who don't buy fables like that.

8 hours ago, Peach King said:

If Renly knew of the incest, his plan would be to get Robert infatuated with Margaery and then reveal the incest. He would profit from having the Tyrells as the backers of the crown and be seen as a hero. Renly mostly wants to get his ego stroked.

But Renly didn't know about the incest. His plan was to use a new Lyanna - Margaery Tyrell - to get Robert to set aside Cersei and make her the new queen. He thought it would be enough if Robert found another woman he was as obsessed with as he was with Lyanna to get rid of Cersei and make her the new queen.

Assuming he also knew about the incest does not only complicate things - it makes Renly look like an incoherent moron. It actually destroys the relatively straightforward plot George gave to Renly and Loras.

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8 hours ago, Ran said:

Big companies of guards cost money, and can slow you down. Historically, there's accounts of kings riding off with just a couple of companions on occasion, so I think the idea that everyone just marches around with maximal retinues is actually fairly unrealistic.

Similarly with the size of the personal guards people like Renly or Ned have. The numbers they bring with them to court appear to be sensible, since no one ever questions them.

 

As to household guards of the king, they do exist -- Ned took in a couple of freeriders into Robert's service in King's Landing -- but it seems Robert only kept a limited number of them for whatever reason.

I dunno, Ned's household guards mostly got slaughtered. So I wouldn't say they're really that good.

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46 minutes ago, Angel Eyes said:

I dunno, Ned's household guards mostly got slaughtered. So I wouldn't say they're really that good.

I'm not sure if you mean "good" by being skilled or "good" by being enough men. But Ned did not envision the events that would ultimately happen, even if he thought the Lannisters were up to no good. If he had come down with 500 men, say, even Robert would likely wonder what in the world he was thinking, and the Lannisters would certainly think he himself was up to no good.

 

Edited by Ran

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49 minutes ago, Ran said:

I'm not sure if you mean "good" by being skilled or "good" by being enough men. But Ned did not envision the events that would ultimately happen, even if he thought the Lannisters were up to no good. If he had come down with 500 men, say, even Robert would likely wonder what in the world he was thinking, and the Lannisters would certainly think he himself was up to no good.

 

Skill-wise.

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Just now, Angel Eyes said:

Skill-wise.

Ah, well, they were ambushed and taken unawares, for the most part, and they were certainly substantially outnumbered. Not a surprise.

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1 hour ago, Ran said:

Ah, well, they were ambushed and taken unawares, for the most part, and they were certainly substantially outnumbered. Not a surprise.

Arya wasn't impressed though: ;)

 

Quote

A Game of Thrones - Arya IV

...... Arya snuck closer. One of the corpses was Desmond, who'd shown her his longsword and promised to protect her father. He lay on his back, staring blindly at the ceiling as flies crawled across his eyes. Close to him was a dead man in the red cloak and lion-crest helm of the Lannisters. Only one, though. Every northerner is worth ten of these southron swords, Desmond had told her. "You liar!" she said, kicking his body in a sudden fury.

But that's by the by......

what I really wanted to add was that everything in the text screams that Renly did not know about the twincest. If he'd known about that he would have been up there in the Whispers, muttering 'Should have used the magic sword', because no doubt about it, such knowledge in Renly's hands would have been just the magic sword he needed to pull off his plan #1

If he intended to displace Cersei in favour of Margaery, why would he faff around with anything else if he had that magic sword? Cersei would be toast.

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1 hour ago, Angel Eyes said:

Skill-wise.

Ned Went south with 50 guards.

Sent 4 back with Lady.

Lost 3 to Jaime.

Sent 20 with Beric.

Also had 8 with him when he went to court.

Cersei had 100 guards and 12 knights against Ned’s 15 at the tower.

Robb with 6000 men slaughtered Jaime’s 1500-2250. 

Trust me when I say nords are better.

 

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6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Nobody said he would have to tell him directly - Stannis didn't do that, either. He could have spread rumors, though. What do you think the court and the king would have done if half the city had whispered behind their backs about how Cersei's children were actually Jaime's. That would have been a poison that would have led to Cersei's destruction. Robert didn't love her, as she herself points out.

Not to mention that Renly could have repeated the game of the Unworthy, using a catspaw to accuse the queen of adultery. He wouldn't have been forced to come forth himself.

Yes he could have, but Renly was allied with the Tyrells. So the plan was to get Robert to fall in love with Margaery. Stannis and Jon Arryn could have spread whispers too, but they didn't. Stannis even thought of how Robert might not believe him and didn't think of spreading whispers or sending a catspaw, and Stannis is clearly the smartest Baratheon.

Stannis thought it would make him look self serving if he told Robert of the incest, as that would make him the heir. But there's an easy solution he didn't think of: Propose a new queen for Robert, who would give him new legitimate heirs. These are character flaws.

Q: But they could have done this, why didn't they??

A1: They didn't think of it.

A2: Because the plot required it.

And who says Renly wasn't going  to try these methods? Maybe he would have when Margaery was in the city. But she couldn't come in time.

They ran out of time because Robert died in a freak accident.

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Because he wanted to present a united Renly-Stannis anti-Lannister front. He did not want Cat to learn that Stannis also made a claim to the Iron Throne.

Maybe, or he cares about Catelyn's opinion of Stannis.

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

He makes it clear he does not believe Stannis' story. It would be your job to prove that Renly was lying there - that he both knew about the incest before Stannis told him and that he cared about it. But there is no such evidence to be found.

Which he would in any case considering that he is his older brother. But he outright says that Stannis would be Robert's heir if his fable was true ... which he apparently does not believe to be the case. And when Cat and Stannis give him some 'evidence' he makes it clear that even if they could convince them - which he is not - it wouldn't change that he wanted and would take the throne.

This is all speculation, as with most theories.

But to me it seems like that whole paragraph is Renly mocking Stannis for not having proof and no one believing him. He says "If only that were true, you indeed would be Robert's heir." 

At this point Renly can be saying "Okay, even if it were true - I still win." 

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

It makes no sense to assume that Renly would not use the incest in his plan to replace Cersei with Margaery - because, you know, Cersei would not go quietly. Robert falling for and fucking Margaery would not make her queen. For that Renly would have to convince Robert to actually set his marriage to Cersei aside - which would have been a big thing to do.

The idea that he would not have used a thing that completely destroy Cersei and House Lannister's standing at court is just hilarious. That makes no sense at all.

He was going to use the incest in his plan to marry Margaery to Robert, but his order of action was:

1. Get Robert infatuated with Margaery

2. Reveal incest

It's very hard for people to believe that twins would fuck each other and produce children to usurp the throne. No one believed Stannis, except those already on his side. That's why Robert has to fall in love with Margaery first, that gives him a reason to BELIEVE.

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

And man - knowing that Cersei and Jaime fuck each other is not the same as proving Cersei's children are not Robert. If Renly had known about the incest and had not wanted to make Stannis the presumptive heir to the Iron Throne (until such a time as Robert and Margaery had children, which should have happened pretty fast) he could have just destroyed Cersei/Jaime by claiming that they started an affair AFTER the birth of Tommen. That would have taken care only of Cersei while not making Cersei's children bastards born of incest (especially if Robert had continued to believe they were his, as he had done since they were born).

Convincing Robert that Jaime and Cersei are fucking each other is also a pretty hard sell. That's still Robert getting cuckolded.

And they still need the kids out of the way, why not do it all at once? There was no harm in waiting, these people weren't blessed with future vision.

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

We are talking KL here - and the Kingslanders hate the Lannisters since the Sack. We know Renly is quite popular with them.

Popular with the small folk. Gee I wonder how that will help him. He needs swords.

If Renly had started spreading news of the incest, he gets arrested by the Lannisters. It doesn't matter how popular he is.

Joffrey was massacring smallfolk. He gives no shits about PR, he would have killed Renly if Renly ran around telling people he was a bastard.

Renly just didn't have enough men to play that card. 

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

That is overstating it. Cersei has to bribe the City Watch. And she has to put down Ned's people. Together Ned and Renly could have won the day. And Renly certainly would have tried to convince Ned that if Robert left no legitimate heirs of his body he was the Baratheon best suited to the crown, not Stannis.

Cersei never bribed the City Watch. She assumed they would be on her side, she did nothing. Probably Renly also assumed they would be on her side as he doesn't mention them at all.

If Renly's plan was to be king, I believe he would have backstabbed Ned instead of trying to convince him of anything.

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

And we are talking about the plan Renly actually pitches to Ned - with the addendum that Renly is crowned king once they have Cersei and the children in their power, not Joffrey. That's what Renly would have done had he known his brother's children were not his. In fact, Renly would have told Robert all that after the boar ravaged him to ensure his brother the king disowned and condemned Cersei and her brats in his last hours.

Renly is not the dumb TV Renly, he would know Ned would never allow him on the throne before Stannis. He could have backstabbed Ned easily once he had the children under his control, since him and his allies outnumber Ned.

Your point about how Renly would have told Robert on his deathbed is a very good one!

However I might have an answer to that as well. Renly is also anti-Stannis as much as anti-Cersei. If Renly tells Robert of the incest in his dying hours, what do you think happens? Robert goes apeshit and orders Cersei and her kids killed, which is good for Renly, but then Ned calls Stannis to King's Landing, which is not. Now Ned might or might not stay on as Stannis' Hand, but the new regime is a bad thing for Renly and for the Tyrells. Stannis is a hard ass who won't pay for Renly's masquerades and balls, and probably hates the Tyrells for the Siege of Storm's End.

If Ned had taken Renly's offer (of seizing the kids as hostages), Renly could have pushed Ned aside, called the Tyrells to King's Landing, and put himself on the throne. He can't do that here, as Robert would officially declare that Stannis is his heir, and Ned would support Stannis along with everyone else. It would be Ned and Stannis in power, not Renly. If Renly saw a path to the throne after Robert's dead, he wouldn't tell Robert, or if he didn't want Stannis in power at all.

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Since that never happened there is no way to even entertain this notion. But guess what - since Stannis told Renly about the incest there would be no way of knowing why he would be doing that if Renly had buried Stannis rather than the other way around.

True. But that's what I would have done if I were Renly.

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

It makes no sense the guy would remain silent about that. Especially considering that he is very calculating.

If he's calculating one would assume he has an idea of the political going ons in King's Landing.

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

So Renly and Loras have no money to offer the City Watch? And Littlefinger - who actually paid them and controlled Slynt, their commander - would rather side with Cersei than Ned and Renly? When he actually suggested that they eventually make the latter king?

No, they probably don't have money. And Renly never even considered the City Watch, otherwise he would have told Ned to bribe them using money from the treasury.

Why didn't Renly tell Ned to get the City Watch on their side? That stumps me as well.

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Nope, he didn't know about that.

Uh.

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

That would be the behavior of a lackwit.

Renly has just proposed grabbing the Lannister heirs. Ned tells him he doesn't want to drag frightened children out of their beds at night. What would Ned assume if Renly suddenly told him they are bastards born of incest?

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

We don't know that Renly feared Cersei while he wanted to make Margaery the new queen. We just know he wanted to do that, presumably because he loathed Cersei's influence and role at court.

That's what I'm saying - Renly isn't afraid of Cersei for the whole time he's plotting, until Robert's dead. Makes no sense to me unless he knew the incest would put him in danger.

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

No, we can not conclude that.

Renly could have kicked the Lannisters in the nads, but he didn't.

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

There is no evidence that the Tyrells wanted a grandson on the Iron Throne. As has been repeatedly told you, Mace likes the idea of his daughter being queen, not his grandson being king. The latter can follow the former, but it doesn't have to. Your daughter being queen can be very profitable, too.

No, we are never told that he first and foremost wants his daughter to be queen.

Olenna tells us in ASOS that Mace wanted his grandson on the throne.

"The thought that one day he may see his grandson with his arse on the Iron Throne makes Mace puff up...."

There is the text. Here is the subtext: If Renly was trying to make Margaery Robert's queen, and Mace wanted his grandson to be the king, how does he do it without taking Joffrey, Tommen and Myrcella out of the way? And if that is not possible, how does he take them out?

This is all we know in the series. The next step should be easy to see.

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Robert Baratheon also knows how he and Renly look, yet he doesn't believe the golden-haired children of his wife are not his seed.

In fact, those looks are neither evidence nor prove. You have to have a suspicion to interpret the hair color as 'evidence'. And there are people like Renly who don't buy fables like that.

"Our Robert is adept at closing his eyes to things he'd rather not see" - Littlefinger.

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

And while it is clear that it is unclear how Renly thought he would get rid of the Cersei-Robert marriage it is quite clear that this was a realistic scenario considering Cersei herself feared Robert would set her aside for a new Lyanna. This means while we don't have a precedent for this kind of thing in recent years (ancient First Men kings set aside wives who gave them children in favor of new Andal brides) both the brother of the king and the king's wife thought or feared that could happen. You cannot argue against those established facts.

True that. Removing the children is another thing, though.

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

But Renly didn't know about the incest. His plan was to use a new Lyanna - Margaery Tyrell - to get Robert to set aside Cersei and make her the new queen. He thought it would be enough if Robert found another woman he was as obsessed with as he was with Lyanna to get rid of Cersei and make her the new queen.

Assuming he also knew about the incest does not only complicate things - it makes Renly look like an incoherent moron. It actually destroys the relatively straightforward plot George gave to Renly and Loras.

I think it makes Renly more of a moron if he had no viable plan to deal with the Lannisters' wrath.

Edited by Peach King

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47 minutes ago, Rufus Snow said:

what I really wanted to add was that everything in the text screams that Renly did not know about the twincest.

Unfortunately, no matter how much indicates that he didn't, short of George telling people, I don't think those in the contrary position will believe it.  And even then some may doubt it, at this rate.

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1 hour ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Ned Went south with 50 guards.

Sent 4 back with Lady.

Lost 3 to Jaime.

Sent 20 with Beric.

Also had 8 with him when he went to court.

Cersei had 100 guards and 12 knights against Ned’s 15 at the tower.

Robb with 6000 men slaughtered Jaime’s 1500-2250. 

Trust me when I say nords are better.

 

Didn't Ned bring a 100 down south with him?

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1 hour ago, Peach King said:

Yes he could have, but Renly was allied with the Tyrells. So the plan was to get Robert to fall in love with Margaery. Stannis and Jon Arryn could have spread whispers too, but they didn't. Stannis even thought of how Robert might not believe him and didn't think of spreading whispers or sending a catspaw, and Stannis is clearly the smartest Baratheon.

Stannis and Jon Arryn cared, we assume, about the truth of the matter and the consequences it would have for Robert and the Realm. They didn't have the agenda to give Robert a new queen - Renly did.

They didn't have the same motives.

1 hour ago, Peach King said:

Stannis thought it would make him look self serving if he told Robert of the incest, as that would make him the heir. But there's an easy solution he didn't think of: Propose a new queen for Robert, who would give him new legitimate heirs. These are character flaws.

Q: But they could have done this, why didn't they??

A1: They didn't think of it.

A2: Because the plot required it.

Well, the plot makes it clear Renly didn't know. You are defying the plot, the text, and common sense.

1 hour ago, Peach King said:

Maybe, or he didn't want Catelyn to believe Stannis was the rightful king.

LOL, sorry, that's just ridiculous. Cat was representing a boy lord who had just crowned himself. Robb and Cat didn't give a shit who was 'the rightful king' either, and Renly knew this, so why on earth should he give a damn about Cat learning what he (only in your mind) had long figured out about Robert's children.

On the other hand - intimidating and threatening Robb's mother with a united Baratheon front standing against both Lannisters and the rebelling Starks and Tullys and bolstered by the prospect that Dorne would join him soon, too, makes perfect sense for Renly.

1 hour ago, Peach King said:

This is all speculation, as with most theories.

But to me it seems like that whole paragraph is Renly mocking Stannis for not having proof and no one believing him. He says "If only that were true, you indeed would be Robert's heir." 

At this point Renly can be saying "Okay, even if it were true - I still win." 

You yourself phrase it here in a way where Renly says he did not know/believe in the twincest. That's what's 'even if it were true' means.

1 hour ago, Peach King said:

He was going to use the incest in his plan to marry Margaery to Robert, but his order of action was:

1. Get Robert infatuated with Margaery

2. Reveal incest

There is no textual evidence for 2., no reason whatsoever to take belief there seriously. All we have is the plan to get Robert infatuated with Margaery.

1 hour ago, Peach King said:

It's very hard for people to believe that twins would fuck each other and produce children to usurp the throne. No one believed Stannis, except those already on his side. That's why Robert has to fall in love with Margaery first, that gives him a reason to BELIEVE.

No, that gives him a reason to replace Cersei with Margaery if they can convince him to marry her (Robert could also just make Margaery his mistress, never mind what happens to Cersei).

Robert loathed Cersei. It is clear that Stannis thought it would be difficult if he tried to convince Robert of this thing - but he believed Jon Arryn could do it.

A more calculating and ruthless guy - like Renly, say - could have poisoned the entire court by spreading rumors about the twincest. That would eaten away at Robert's heart, and would have made Cersei/Jaime very nervous, causing them to make mistakes which could give them away.

The idea that the only way to bring this thing to Robert is going to tell him directly is just ludicrous. One could have spread rumors, one could have wondered aloud about the looks the royal children (like the Greens did in the case of Rhaenyra's sons) - what do you think Robert would have done if people had constantly remarked how closely his children resembled Jaime Lannister? -, one could have closely watched Cersei and Jaime to get a witness when they fucked each other, one could have even devised a plan to lure the twins into a trap so that Robert stumbles on them while they have sex. The possibilities are endless there.

The idea a man like Renly would have thought he would have to tell his brother directly what was going is ridiculous. He also didn't tell him directly that he intended for him to replace Cersei with Margaery, did he?

1 hour ago, Peach King said:

Convincing Robert that Jaime and Cersei are fucking each other is also a pretty hard sell. That's still Robert getting cuckolded.

And what's the issue there? Robert knows that Cersei is close to Jaime, Robert might be able to recall that he didn't have vaginal sex with Cersei when one of the children was conceived, Robert's children look like Jaime, and, most importantly, Robert does neither love nor like Cersei.

The rumor about the twincest - no proof, no evidence, no witnesses, just the rumor - could have been enough to destroy their marriage.

1 hour ago, Peach King said:

And they still need the kids out of the way, why not do it all at once? There was no harm in waiting, these people weren't blessed with future vision.

There is no talk about Renly ever wanting to target his brother's children while he was still trying to make Margaery Robert's queen.

1 hour ago, Peach King said:

Popular with the small folk. Gee I wonder how that will help him. He needs swords.

Man, he had the swords. The idea is Renly and Ned seize the castle and the royal family in the night while Robert is dying. Then they reveal the incest and get the Kingslanders and the City Watch on board. Not only smallfolk lives there, there are also men-at-arms and knights and even lords living in that city. Then they crown King Renly.

And the Storming of the Dragonpit should have taught you what the Kingslanders can do if they are worked into a frenzy...

1 hour ago, Peach King said:

If Renly had started spreading news of the incest, he gets arrested by the Lannisters. It doesn't matter how popular he is.

LOL, no. While Robert lives Cersei has no authority over the government or most of the men-at-arms in the city. She only controls her own retainers and her personal guard.

1 hour ago, Peach King said:

Joffrey was massacring smallfolk. He gives no shits about PR, he would have killed Renly if Renly ran around telling people he was a bastard.

Joffrey would hide under his bed.

1 hour ago, Peach King said:

Renly just didn't have enough men to play that card.

He had - he chose not to play that card because he had no idea about the twincest and because Ned rejected his offer.

1 hour ago, Peach King said:

Cersei never bribed the City Watch. She assumed they would be on her side, she did nothing. Probably Renly also assumed they would be on her side as he doesn't mention them at all.

Wrong again. Littlefinger secured the City Watch for Cersei.

1 hour ago, Peach King said:

If Renly's plan was to be king, I believe he would have backstabbed Ned instead of trying to convince him of anything.

Sure, he might have backstabbed him eventually - but, you know, if he knew Ned was intending to become regent of a false king then he would have told him not to do that. That's just common sense. And Renly knew Robert had named Ned regent when he talked to him on his deathbed.

It is utter silliness to assume Renly would want to allow Ned

1 hour ago, Peach King said:

Renly is not the dumb TV Renly, he would know Ned would never allow him on the throne before Stannis. He could have backstabbed Ned easily once he had the children under his control, since him and his allies outnumber Ned.

How would he know that? Renly has no idea that Ned plans to make Stannis king, and he has no reason to believe that Ned gives a damn about Stannis. Ned also helped to make Robert king after the Rebellion.

1 hour ago, Peach King said:

Your point about how Renly would have told Robert on his deathbed is a very good one!

However I might have an answer to that as well. Renly is also anti-Stannis as much as anti-Cersei. If Renly tells Robert of the incest in his dying hours, what do you think happens? Robert goes apeshit and orders Cersei and her kids killed, which is good for Renly, but then Ned calls Stannis to King's Landing, which is not. Now Ned might or might not stay on as Stannis' Hand, but the new regime is a bad thing for Renly and for the Tyrells. Stannis is a hard ass who won't pay for Renly's masquerades and balls, and probably hates the Tyrells for the Siege of Storm's End.

If anyone had told Robert, then Robert would have ruled on his own succession - and Ned, being the dutiful guy he is, would have followed Robert's lead.

Robert tried to bring his house in order on his deathbed. He called off the Dany assassination, he handed power over to Ned because he knew he would be a good ruler. If Robert felt he had another option than his own children for successor he certainly could have made a pretty radical choice - like naming Renly.

1 hour ago, Peach King said:

If Ned had taken Renly's offer (of seizing the kids as hostages), Renly could have pushed Ned aside, called the Tyrells to King's Landing, and put himself on the throne. He can't do that here, as Robert would officially declare that Stannis is his heir, and Ned would support Stannis along with everyone else. It would be Ned and Stannis in power, not Renly. If Renly saw a path to the throne after Robert's dead, he wouldn't tell Robert, or if he didn't want Stannis in power at all.

You have no idea whether Robert would declare Stannis his heir - or whether Renly would allow such a decree by Robert to leave his bedchamber.

Had never ever talked to either Robert or Renly about the twincest he may have realized that backing Renly rather than Stannis may have been a better idea. We don't know. Ned didn't really know Stannis.

1 hour ago, Peach King said:

If he's calculating one would assume he has an idea of the political going ons in King's Landing.

No, that doesn't follow. You can be calculating and not know certain things.

1 hour ago, Peach King said:

No, they probably don't have money. And Renly never even considered the City Watch, otherwise he would have told Ned to bribe them using money from the treasury.

LOL, again - they could have had money if they had had Littlefinger. And they would have had Littlefinger if Ned and Renly had approached him together, revealing they knew about the incest.

But as I said above - the crucial thing was to secure the castle - and for that they would not have needed the City Watch.

1 hour ago, Peach King said:

Why didn't Renly tell Ned to get the City Watch on their side? That stumps me as well.

Because they wouldn't have needed that for seizing the castle in the middle of the night.

1 hour ago, Peach King said:

Renly has just proposed grabbing the Lannister heirs. Ned tells him he doesn't want to drag frightened children out of their beds at night. What would Ned assume if Renly suddenly told him they are bastards born of incest?

Make it clear to him that he could not become the regent of a false king?

1 hour ago, Peach King said:

That's what I'm saying - Renly isn't afraid of Cersei for the whole time he's plotting, until Robert's dead. Makes no sense to me unless he knew the incest would put him in danger.

LOL, no. Renly is afraid of Cersei after the death of Robert because he expects her to try to seize the regency government of her young son. In addition to (likely) wanting to be king himself he does not want to be part of a government that's run by Cersei because of the issues he himself has with Cersei.

1 hour ago, Peach King said:

No, we are never told that he first and foremost wants his daughter to be queen.

Olenna tells us in ASOS that Mace wanted his grandson on the throne.

"The thought that one day he may see his grandson with his arse on the Iron Throne makes Mace puff up...."

That is after they the Lannisters had offered to marry Margaery to a childless King Joffrey. There are sources claiming Mace wanted to his grandson by Robert and Margaery to sit on the Iron Throne.

1 hour ago, Peach King said:

"Our Robert is adept at closing his eyes to things he'd rather not see" - Littlefinger.

Littlefinger actually might exaggerate there, but there is actually no indication that Renly is the (much) more perceptive than Renly. Not to mention that your quote makes little sense in context - Robert did not suspect his children weren't his children and closed his eyes to the truth. The thought just never crossed his mind. Just as Renly was completely ignorant about the whole thing.

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On 9/19/2019 at 4:08 AM, Lord Varys said:

Stannis and Jon Arryn cared, we assume, about the truth of the matter and the consequences it would have for Robert and the Realm. They didn't have the agenda to give Robert a new queen - Renly did.

They didn't have the same motives.

Stannis could have told Robert indirectly. He could have sent Davos. He could have offered Robert a suitable betrothal if he didn't want to look self serving. He could have told Robert he was self abdicating. He could have hired sellswords like in ACOK if he feared the Lannisters. He could have looked for someone to be a witness and support him in King's Landing. He only left when Robert and Cersei went North, during that time he could have surprised Robert with evidence when he came back. Stannis could have told Robert in Winterfell. Up North, Ned's forces had the numerical advantage. Stannis and Ned would have been able to put a united front to Robert.

But he didn't.

Just like Renly not using all those other methods to tell Robert of the incest. It's cause his plan was to get Robert enamored with Margaery.

On 9/19/2019 at 4:08 AM, Lord Varys said:

Well, the plot makes it clear Renly didn't know. You are defying the plot, the text, and common sense.

Nah. Also OP asked a question so he wants opinions  - not people stating what is and isn't canon.

On 9/19/2019 at 4:08 AM, Lord Varys said:

LOL, sorry, that's just ridiculous. Cat was representing a boy lord who had just crowned himself. Robb and Cat didn't give a shit who was 'the rightful king' either, and Renly knew this, so why on earth should he give a damn about Cat learning what he (only in your mind) had long figured out about Robert's children.

On the other hand - intimidating and threatening Robb's mother with a united Baratheon front standing against both Lannisters and the rebelling Starks and Tullys and bolstered by the prospect that Dorne would join him soon, too, makes perfect sense for Renly.

Robb did give a shit. 

As you say," said Robb, troubled. "Yet if neither one is king, still, how could it be Lord Renly? He's Robert's younger brother. Bran can't be Lord of Winterfell before me, and Renly can't be king before Lord Stannis."

Lady Mormont agreed. "Lord Stannis has the better claim
."

And so did Catelyn.

Do I?" Renly shrugged. "So be it. Stannis was never the most cherished of brothers, I confess. Do you suppose this tale of his is true? If Joffrey is the Kingslayer's get—"

"—your brother is the lawful heir.
"

Renly actually took Dorne for granted. I'm unsure about Stannis though.

On 9/19/2019 at 4:08 AM, Lord Varys said:

You yourself phrase it here in a way where Renly says he did not know/believe in the twincest. That's what's 'even if it were true' means.

No it means Stannis cannot prove anything.

On 9/19/2019 at 4:08 AM, Lord Varys said:

There is no textual evidence for 2., no reason whatsoever to take belief there seriously. All we have is the plan to get Robert infatuated with Margaery.

I guess you believe Renly is a moron then.

On 9/19/2019 at 4:08 AM, Lord Varys said:

No, that gives him a reason to replace Cersei with Margaery if they can convince him to marry her (Robert could also just make Margaery his mistress, never mind what happens to Cersei).

No, it also gives Robert incentive to believe Renly. And I listed one of the reasons as why Renly would want Margaery specifically as queen. The Tyrells become the backers of the crown, and Renly profits since he's closely allied to them. He doesn't get the same benefits from another family being in power, and he's pro-Tyrell.

On 9/19/2019 at 4:08 AM, Lord Varys said:

A more calculating and ruthless guy - like Renly, say - could have poisoned the entire court by spreading rumors about the twincest. That would eaten away at Robert's heart, and would have made Cersei/Jaime very nervous, causing them to make mistakes which could give them away.

The idea that the only way to bring this thing to Robert is going to tell him directly is just ludicrous. One could have spread rumors, one could have wondered aloud about the looks the royal children (like the Greens did in the case of Rhaenyra's sons) - what do you think Robert would have done if people had constantly remarked how closely his children resembled Jaime Lannister? -, one could have closely watched Cersei and Jaime to get a witness when they fucked each other, one could have even devised a plan to lure the twins into a trap so that Robert stumbles on them while they have sex. The possibilities are endless there.

Actually what would happen if there was a whispering campaign is that either Cersei or Jaime kill the fuck out of Robert. It's a dumb idea.

And Robert would probably punch the catspaw flat out and not listen. He has a habit of sticking his neck in the sand.

Trying to catch Cersei and Jaime is a losers game. They've got effectively infinite chances to sneak away. No one knows how often they couple. And when you do catch them, that's a very uncontrolled situation.

"Trap them". Sounds much more troublesome than the Margaery plan really. Theres also the risk whoever's following them gets killed. Renly's plan was fine. And he wasn't waiting very long - only a little more than a week passes from when he puts the scheme into action to when Robert goes for the hunt.

On 9/19/2019 at 4:08 AM, Lord Varys said:

The idea a man like Renly would have thought he would have to tell his brother directly what was going is ridiculous. He also didn't tell him directly that he intended for him to replace Cersei with Margaery, did he?

Renly had to be indirect about the Margaery plan, but that's because he can't tell Robert he intended to make her queen, that would be idiotic. People still found out. He didn't try to spread a whispering campaign about Margaery's beauty did he? He told Robert directly. He was like "Hey, check out this hot chick" and half the court knew. That's not subtle.

And what do we know about Renly's priorities? He wants fame and adulation. If he got Robert a hot new piece, and then revealed that his wife was a treasonous bitch - Robert would be incredibly grateful to Renly from saving him from his terrible marriage. If Renly was known as the one who scourged the city of the awful treasonous Lannisters, he becomes a hero. Robert might even make him his new Hand. Something which is not accomplished by any whispering campaigns or catspaws.

So yeah the plan could have been to get Robert attached to Margaery, have her in the city, and then reveal the incest. Perhaps by bribing some maid servants to give "evidence", showing Robert dirty sheets, or directly telling him. There's nothing wrong with the plan!

Why wouldn't Renly wait until Margaery has Robert wrapped around her little finger? He was just going to bring her to court. He didn't know Robert would die.

You know what was the "subtle, sneaky, smart plan" Renly could have done? He could have lent Stannis his army and looked like an honorable brother. And then backstabbed Stannis as soon as he was on the throne. That was a much smarter thing to do, but Renly doesn't do it because he doesn't want to be behind Stannis, to be no. 2 and either wait or be a kinslayer. Renly's main motivation is his ego.

We also don't know if Renly's endgame was removing the Lannisters. Maybe it was having Margaery be queen. 

On 9/19/2019 at 4:08 AM, Lord Varys said:

And what's the issue there? Robert knows that Cersei is close to Jaime, Robert might be able to recall that he didn't have vaginal sex with Cersei when one of the children was conceived, Robert's children look like Jaime, and, most importantly, Robert does neither love nor like Cersei.

The rumor about the twincest - no proof, no evidence, no witnesses, just the rumor - could have been enough to destroy their marriage.

Making someone believe that the Lannister twins are sleeping with each other is more or less the same as making them believe the Lannister twins are sleeping with each other and their children are incest bastards. Equally unbelievable.

And Margaery wasn't at court yet. Robert could have married someone else.

On 9/19/2019 at 4:08 AM, Lord Varys said:

The rumor about the twincest - no proof, no evidence, no witnesses, just the rumor - could have been enough to destroy their marriage.

Renly didn't spread rumours that the Lannisters killed Robert. Renly didn't spread rumours that Stannis deserted Robert because he wanted to be king. Renly isn't the type to spread rumours to discredit people.

And rumour spreading is a dumb idea because all that would do is spring the Lannisters into action.

On 9/19/2019 at 4:08 AM, Lord Varys said:

Man, he had the swords. The idea is Renly and Ned seize the castle and the royal family in the night while Robert is dying. Then they reveal the incest and get the Kingslanders and the City Watch on board. Not only smallfolk lives there, there are also men-at-arms and knights and even lords living in that city. Then they crown King Renly.

And the Storming of the Dragonpit should have taught you what the Kingslanders can do if they are worked into a frenzy...

Ned didn't agree to support Renly when Littlefinger asked. He probably still wants to support Stannis. So that was why Renly would reveal the incest later.

Ned died trying to put Stannis on the throne.

Littlefinger could still buy the goldcloaks for Cersei. So no they don't have enough swords. The goldcloaks are 2000 in number.

And proclaiming the Lannister children bastards could lose them their hostages. You can't put bastards on the throne, and since incest is a crime, House Lannister has no reason to believe the children won't be killed anyway (as they should be, by law, as they are abominations). 

On 9/19/2019 at 4:08 AM, Lord Varys said:

LOL, no. While Robert lives Cersei has no authority over the government or most of the men-at-arms in the city. She only controls her own retainers and her personal guard.

The city is full of Lannistermen. We're given the impression there's quite a lot. Stannis was so fearful of them he wasn't willing to take on the Lannisters.

And Cersei would still have the goldcloaks.

On 9/19/2019 at 4:08 AM, Lord Varys said:

Joffrey would hide under his bed.

He killed Ned Stark, a beloved Lord Paramount.

On 9/19/2019 at 4:08 AM, Lord Varys said:

He had - he chose not to play that card because he had no idea about the twincest and because Ned rejected his offer.

No, it was because he would have been outnumbered massively by whoever got the goldcloaks, and neither Ned nor Cersei would want him on the throne.

On 9/19/2019 at 4:08 AM, Lord Varys said:

Wrong again. Littlefinger secured the City Watch for Cersei.

He did - but Cersei didn't bring him on her side. Littlefinger went to her.

On 9/19/2019 at 4:08 AM, Lord Varys said:

Sure, he might have backstabbed him eventually - but, you know, if he knew Ned was intending to become regent of a false king then he would have told him not to do that. That's just common sense. And Renly knew Robert had named Ned regent when he talked to him on his deathbed.

Renly doesn't know Ned knows about the incest. There's no guarantee that Ned will believe such a story (I mean, would you?) He may view it as Renly's poor attempt at a coup.

Or even see it as treason, since Renly withheld such important information from his king.

What Renly says during his invitation is "the man who holds the king holds the kingdom". If Joffrey's presumed legitimate, he's the king and therefore a coup is worthwhile. If Joffrey's a bastard, Stannis is the king, and there's no way Renly can control him; Renly doesn't want to bring Ned on board with an argument that leads to pointing his loyalties at Dragonstone.

I take back the whole backstabbing thing. That would be stupid. Renly would immediately be at war with the Lannisters, Starks and Tullys as well as the Narrow Sea houses plus the Vale houses and even his own supporters would oppose such an action.

A good plan is for Renly to sieze the children as hostages, gain Reach and Stormlands support, then make Ned go home by telling him the children are under his "safe custody" (he doesn't know Ned plans to put Stannis on the throne), then reveal the incest. 

On 9/19/2019 at 4:08 AM, Lord Varys said:

It is utter silliness to assume Renly would want to allow Ned

?

On 9/19/2019 at 4:08 AM, Lord Varys said:

How would he know that? Renly has no idea that Ned plans to make Stannis king, and he has no reason to believe that Ned gives a damn about Stannis. Ned also helped to make Robert king after the Rebellion.

Renly doesn't know that Ned plans to make Stannis king, but he knows that Ned knows Stannis comes before Renly in the succession.

Robert was also the one with the best claim.

On 9/19/2019 at 4:08 AM, Lord Varys said:

If anyone had told Robert, then Robert would have ruled on his own succession - and Ned, being the dutiful guy he is, would have followed Robert's lead.

Robert tried to bring his house in order on his deathbed. He called off the Dany assassination, he handed power over to Ned because he knew he would be a good ruler. If Robert felt he had another option than his own children for successor he certainly could have made a pretty radical choice - like naming Renly.

You have no idea whether Robert would declare Stannis his heir - or whether Renly would allow such a decree by Robert to leave his bedchamber.

Robert didn't hate Stannis. And he doesn't care about his policies, especially since he's going to die soon.

Robert had named Stannis his heir by giving him Dragonstone way back. There is no reason for him to name Renly.

The Council members would ensure that such a decree leaves his bedchamber.

Besides, another reason Renly might not have have told Robert could be because he loves him and doesn't want to ruin his last moments (like Ned). Or he might not have the balls to say it directly to Robert's face.

On 9/19/2019 at 4:08 AM, Lord Varys said:

Had never ever talked to either Robert or Renly about the twincest he may have realized that backing Renly rather than Stannis may have been a better idea. We don't know. Ned didn't really know Stannis.

Ned would never support a younger brother over the elder.

On 9/19/2019 at 4:08 AM, Lord Varys said:

LOL, again - they could have had money if they had had Littlefinger. And they would have had Littlefinger if Ned and Renly had approached him together, revealing they knew about the incest.

No they wouldn't. The incest makes Stannis king. Littlefinger does not want Stannis as king. And Ned does not want Renly as king.

I don't think Renly ever thought of the goldcloaks. According to the wiki they're under his jurisdiction and he didnt utilize them at all. He probably assumed they would be on Cersei's side. I don't think either Cersei or Renly knew who owned the goldcloaks.

On 9/19/2019 at 4:08 AM, Lord Varys said:

But as I said above - the crucial thing was to secure the castle - and for that they would not have needed the City Watch.

Because they wouldn't have needed that for seizing the castle in the middle of the night.

They would probably have needed it for keeping control of the city.

On 9/19/2019 at 4:08 AM, Lord Varys said:

Make it clear to him that he could not become the regent of a false king?

What has Renly learnt from Ned's refusal of his "safe plan"?

a) Ned doesn't want to harm children. Now he's suddenly going to say they're incestuous bastards?

Incest is a crime. That mean Renly might kill the children. Ned doesn't want that. Ned will refuse to support Renly. Renly would just look like a greedy uncle who wants to sieze power.

Renly might have even thought Ned would tell Cersei to stop Renly from harming her children - y'know like Ned actually did.


b) Ned is honorable. He wants to respect Robert's last moments.

Ned would definitely support Stannis if the truth came out.

That's why the truth doesn't come out.

On 9/19/2019 at 4:08 AM, Lord Varys said:

LOL, no. Renly is afraid of Cersei after the death of Robert because he expects her to try to seize the regency government of her young son. In addition to (likely) wanting to be king himself he does not want to be part of a government that's run by Cersei because of the issues he himself has with Cersei.

That doesn't mean Cersei would kill him, as he seems to think.

And he doesn't have issues with Cersei. He just mocks her every once in a while for good fun, like everyone else.

On 9/19/2019 at 4:08 AM, Lord Varys said:

That is after they the Lannisters had offered to marry Margaery to a childless King Joffrey. There are sources claiming Mace wanted to his grandson by Robert and Margaery to sit on the Iron Throne.

No, Olenna is talking about the match to Renly here.

We don't know if Mace wants his daughter as queen or if that is only a means to make his grandson a king.

Mace is a cautious man. He wouldn't risk angering the Lannisters and put his beloved daughter in danger by throwing her at Robert without a viable plan. Robert dies, Joffrey assumes power, Margaery's head is on a pike. Or Tywin sends assassins. Or Tywin goes to war.

And Mace is a Lord Paramount. I can't see him throwing away his only daughter in a reckless plan.

On 9/19/2019 at 4:08 AM, Lord Varys said:

Littlefinger actually might exaggerate there, but there is actually no indication that Renly is the (much) more perceptive than Renly. Not to mention that your quote makes little sense in context - Robert did not suspect his children weren't his children and closed his eyes to the truth. The thought just never crossed his mind. Just as Renly was completely ignorant about the whole thing.

You seem to think Renly is subtle and sneaky and a good politician yet he didn't know about the incest. Something is amiss here.

Edited by Peach King

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1 hour ago, Peach King said:

Stannis could have told Robert indirectly. He could have sent Davos. He could have offered Robert a suitable betrothal if he didn't want to look self serving. He could have told Robert he was self abdicating. He could have hired sellswords like in ACOK if he feared the Lannisters. He could have looked for someone to be a witness and support him in King's Landing. He only left when Robert and Cersei went North, during that time he could have surprised Robert with evidence when he came back. Stannis could have told Robert in Winterfell. Up North, Ned's forces had the numerical advantage. Stannis and Ned would have been able to put a united front to Robert.

Stannis did not want to tell Robert directly - and when he first contacted Jon Arryn they had just suspicions, not even the kind of 'evidence' Stannis later thinks he has. Stannis knew of Edric Storm (and likely had a description of him although I doubt he ever saw the boy before ACoK) and Jon may have known Mya Stone in the Vale. Then they went and looked at Gendry and Barra, and Jon eventually read that book - but all that's not evidence.

Stannis seems to have concluded his suspicions were correct when Jon suddenly died and he jumped to the conclusion Cersei had him poisoned.

After that he should have shared his suspicions with Robert - that he chose not to do that was, in my opinion, treason.

Just as Renly would have been a filthy traitor, by the way, if he had known about the incest (i.e. had good reason to believe Cersei's children were not Robert's) and kept his tongue.

1 hour ago, Peach King said:

Robb did give a shit. 

As you say," said Robb, troubled. "Yet if neither one is king, still, how could it be Lord Renly? He's Robert's younger brother. Bran can't be Lord of Winterfell before me, and Renly can't be king before Lord Stannis."

Lady Mormont agreed. "Lord Stannis has the better claim
."

And so did Catelyn.

He longer gave a shit after he crowned himself, though. And certainly nobody told either Stannis or Renly about the fact that they mentioned their claims at the Riverrun war council before their went around and proclaimed Robb king.

Catelyn makes it crystal clear that neither she nor her son intend for Robb to give up his crown and bend the knee to either Renly or Stannis - and that makes Robb a traitor in their eyes. Renly takes the nice guy approach, permitting Robb to keep the title of king if acknowledges Renly as his overlord, and Stannis takes the bad guy approach - making it clear he is going to deal with Robb the same way as he will deal with Renly and the Lannisters.

1 hour ago, Peach King said:

Renly actually took Dorne for granted. I'm unsure about Stannis though.

Stannis does no such thing - but my point was that Renly presents a powerful anti-Lannister (and, by extension, anti-Stark/Tully) front by trying to paint the picture to Cat that he does not only have the Stormlands and the Reach but also Stannis and, allegedly, Dorne to pressure Robb and his allies into submission without them actually fighting each other.

That's also why they inquire when Robb intends to march against Lord Tywin - they hope the Starks and Lannisters will weaken each other, so Renly can mop up the survivors later. There is a reason why Renly takes his time with his march to KL

1 hour ago, Peach King said:

I guess you believe Renly is a moron then.

Renly is ambitious and has a ruthless, pragmatic side to him, but not particularly perceptive or smart, yes.

1 hour ago, Peach King said:

No, it also gives Robert incentive to believe Renly. And I listed one of the reasons as why Renly would want Margaery specifically as queen. The Tyrells become the backers of the crown, and Renly profits since he's closely allied to them. He doesn't get the same benefits from another family being in power, and he's pro-Tyrell.

But you have no proof that this is incentive. Perhaps he only chose Margaery for his game because he happens to be Loras' lover and he needs some pawn to use against Cersei because he wants her gone so badly. We don't know what drove him, so don't pretend you do know.

1 hour ago, Peach King said:

Actually what would happen if there was a whispering campaign is that either Cersei or Jaime kill the fuck out of Robert. It's a dumb idea.

That could happen. But then - if the truth is out and a sufficient number of people believe the king's children are abominations born of incest and adultery, Joffrey, Tommen, or Myrcella would have face great problems taking the throne. Such a thing could backfire - and it isn't a given that Cersei/Jaime could or would kill Robert.

1 hour ago, Peach King said:

And Robert would probably punch the catspaw flat out and not listen. He has a habit of sticking his neck in the sand.

That just an ad hoc explanation - yes, Robert likes to look the other way. But Ned himself he is not going to look the other way when he is told about the incest. He fears he will kill Cersei's children - that would be a monstrous act, and he wants to save the lives of the children. Ned's assessment here is more worth than yours, and it implies that the people who knew Robert best knew he would not necessarily ignore this thing.

1 hour ago, Peach King said:

Trying to catch Cersei and Jaime is a losers game. They've got effectively infinite chances to sneak away. No one knows how often they couple. And when you do catch them, that's a very uncontrolled situation.

Man, you are contradicting yourself. Didn't you say they were not subtle? If they are not subtle a subtle person could have lured them into a trap.

1 hour ago, Peach King said:

Renly had to be indirect about the Margaery plan, but that's because he can't tell Robert he intended to make her queen, that would be idiotic. People still found out. He didn't try to spread a whispering campaign about Margaery's beauty did he? He told Robert directly. He was like "Hey, check out this hot chick" and half the court knew. That's not subtle.

The point is that Renly could have taken the same indirect approach to the incest. Feeding Robert pieces about Jaime looking like his children, Jaime spending a lot of time with Cersei, Jaime being awfully and close to Cersei, Jaime and Cersei appearing as if they were romatically in love, etc.

I mean, seriously, it is a very old trick to poison a man against his wife. Just ask Othello! Renly could have been Robert's Iago. And it should have been much easier if the woman in question is actually unfaithful.

It is ridiculous how you try to dismiss that Renly would have taken such an approach had he known.

And it is also quite clear why Stannis wouldn't have taken such an approach - because he cannot really plot, and such a thing would have been beneath him.

1 hour ago, Peach King said:

And what do we know about Renly's priorities? He wants fame and adulation. If he got Robert a hot new piece, and then revealed that his wife was a treasonous bitch - Robert would be incredibly grateful to Renly from saving him from his terrible marriage. If Renly was known as the one who scourged the city of the awful treasonous Lannisters, he becomes a hero. Robert might even make him his new Hand. Something which is not accomplished by any whispering campaigns or catspaws.

LOL, right.

1 hour ago, Peach King said:

Why wouldn't Renly wait until Margaery has Robert wrapped around her little finger? He was just going to bring her to court. He didn't know Robert would die.

Because he couldn't be sure the whole idea would succeed. It was a gamble. I mean, Margaery is a 14-year-old child in AGoT, and Robert is a fat, old drunkard. Renly hoped the Lyanna factor would kick in there, but the whole thing was never likely to succeed at all.

If he had known a way to increase his chances to destroy Cersei (and make Margaery the new queen) he would have taken that. That he didn't do that is all the proof we need to be sure you are wrong here.

1 hour ago, Peach King said:

You know what was the "subtle, sneaky, smart plan" Renly could have done? He could have lent Stannis his army and looked like an honorable brother. And then backstabbed Stannis as soon as he was on the throne. That was a much smarter thing to do, but Renly doesn't do it because he doesn't want to be behind Stannis, to be no. 2 and either wait or be a kinslayer. Renly's main motivation is his ego.

Why should Renly do any of that? He doesn't know about the incest, and when Robert dies he decides he wants to be king - he doesn't give a damn about Robert's children or his older brother, he just wants the crown.

1 hour ago, Peach King said:

We also don't know if Renly's endgame was removing the Lannisters. Maybe it was having Margaery be queen.

That is not very likely considering that he himself would not profit in making Margaery the queen. He is not a Tyrell himself.

1 hour ago, Peach King said:

Renly isn't very effective at anything. He completely messed up handling Ned, his battle plan was charging uphill through muddy ground into the sunrise, he alienates Catelyn, he gives Robb a useless title and thought he'd be happy.....so his plan was probably just "Margaery is hot." Makes sense he wasn't able to get his plot off the ground.

I agree that Renly is no good plotter - he actually failed to keep in Margaery plot a secret from crucial people at court. But he would have acted quite differently had he known about the incest.

1 hour ago, Peach King said:

Making someone believe that the Lannister twins are sleeping with each other is more or less the same as making them believe the Lannister twins are sleeping with each other and their children are incest bastards. Equally unbelievable.

LOL, no. If Jaime and Cersei had been caught abed together in 298 AC then this wouldn't have proven that Cersei's children were Jaime's - because this could have been the first they had sex. Or their affair could ahve started in the mid 290s.

Proving Cersei is an adulteress isn't the same as proving her children are not the children of her husband.

1 hour ago, Peach King said:

And Margaery wasn't at court yet. Robert could have married someone else.

Right, because a king who just executed his wife would immediately marry some random girl and not, say, waiting half a year or longer before he trusts another woman enough to be the mother of his children.

1 hour ago, Peach King said:

Renly didn't spread rumours that the Lannisters killed Robert. Renly didn't spread rumours that Stannis deserted Robert because he wanted to be king. Renly isn't the type to spread rumours to discredit people.

Renly spreads a lot of rumors, actually. He claims the Dornishmen will join when there is no indication that they ever entertained the thought.

1 hour ago, Peach King said:

And rumour spreading is a dumb idea because all that would do is spring the Lannisters into action.

Something that could lead to their downfall ... and to Renly's rise to the throne. If Cersei and Robert had killed each other Renly could have become king ... to marry Margaery, like he did in the end. Sounds like a good plan to me.

1 hour ago, Peach King said:

You've got something wrong in your calculations here. The City Watch isn't going to join Ned and Renly, because Ned will still support Stannis on the throne and Littlefinger doesn't want that.

There is no evidence that this would have to be the case. Renly could have brought Littlefinger on board. Or they could have agreed together to kill Ned if he insisted on making Stannis king, using him only as muscle until they have secured castles and city and taken out the Lannisters.

But as you should know - they did not need the City Watch for the castle. And once they had the castle and Cersei and the children the City Watch could do nothing about them since they would have royal hostages. If Slynt was a Lannister toady - which he was not - then any attempt to move against Renly would have meant endangering the lives of Cersei and her children.

1 hour ago, Peach King said:

And proclaiming the Lannister children bastards would lose them their hostages. You can't put bastards on the throne, and since incest is a crime, House Lannister has no reason to believe the children won't be killed anyway (as they should be, by law). The Lannister men in the city storm the Red Keep and everyone dies.

LOL, first there are no Lannister men of note in the city - they are in the castle, and those would be killed by Renly's and Ned's men. Second, no man loyal to Tywin Lannister would dare to storm the castle and risk the deaths of his daughter and grandchildren no matter what Renly and Ned had said they were.

1 hour ago, Peach King said:

The city is full of Lannistermen. We're given the impression there's quite a lot. Stannis was so fearful of them he wasn't willing to take on the Lannisters.

Stannis knew he could not hold KL if he took it by storm, because Tywin had a large army not that far away - and Renly was marching on the capital, too. KL never had enough defenders to protect the city against an army.

1 hour ago, Peach King said:

He killed Ned Stark, a beloved Lord Paramount.

He authorized his execution after a successful coup that made his mother the regent. After he was crowned and anointed king, when he was in a position of relative strength.

1 hour ago, Peach King said:

He did - but Cersei didn't bring him on his side. Littlefinger went to her.

How do you know that? There is nothing in the text that reveals whether Cersei went to Littlefinger (like Ned also asked Littlefinger for his help) or whether Littlefinger went to Ned.

In fact, the facts that our good Petyr did reap exactly no great rewards for his role in the succession crisis - Slynt became Lord of Harrenhal; and Petyr got was to keep his seat on the council - and the fact that Cersei herself credits Sansa's betrayal as the crucial factor in her victory over Ned strongly indicates Littlefinger did not offer his help to Cersei. She just demanded that he do what he did - and he complied because Ned had rejected his offer.

1 hour ago, Peach King said:

Renly doesn't know Ned knows about the incest. There's no guarantee that Ned will believe such a story (I mean, would you?) He may view it as Renly's poor attempt at a coup.

It would still have been a gamble a sane person would have done - just as a sane person would have told Robert himself back in the forest after the boar ravaged him (so that they could immediately arrest and deal with Cersei once the dying king was return to his castle.

There is simply no evidence whatsoever that Renly knew. And in addition to Ned Renly would also have done his best to inform the other lords of the council - especially Selmy - so that they would not be able to just crown Joffrey as Robert's son.

1 hour ago, Peach King said:

Or even see it as treason, since Renly withheld such important information from his king.

See above.

1 hour ago, Peach King said:

What Renly says during his invitation is "the man who holds the king holds the kingdom". If Joffrey's presumed legitimate, he's the king and therefore a coup is worthwhile. If Joffrey's a bastard, Stannis is the king, and there's no way Renly can control him; Renly doesn't want to bring Ned on board with an argument that leads to pointing his loyalties at Dragonstone.

Renly has no reason to believe that Ned would be particularly loyal to Stannis.

1 hour ago, Peach King said:

A good plan is for Renly to sieze the children as hostages, gain Reach and Stormlands support, then make Ned go home by telling him the children are under his "safe custody" (he doesn't know Ned plans to put Stannis on the throne), then reveal the incest. 

Actually, no, that would be a shitty plan.

Ned himself drops the ball of honestly and straightforwardness when he decides to not involve Robert in his own succession. He plays a very deceptive game there, trying to get himself confirmed as Lord Regent and Protector of the Realm for a king he has no intention of crowning. If Cersei's children are not Robert's, then there is no need for a regent, and as such Ned has no right to get himself confirmed as regent.

Renly knows that Robert named Ned the regent and wants to make common cause with him. Renly has no reason to believe Ned would relinquish the regency after they have taken Cersei and the children into their custody. He either wanted to share in Ned's power or, my guess, see to it that Robert's children don't survive their father long because the men who would take Maegor's Holdfast would be his men and he could either repeat Tywin's stunt during the Sack, or ensure it that the children later suffer accidents in their apartments (sort of like Unwin Peake got rid of Queen Jaehaera).

After the children are dead, there would no longer be a need for a regent, and Renly could either sent Ned back home, get him on board with his 'I want to be king' plan, or just kill him. The majority of the men taking the Red Keep would have been Renly's men in such a scenario.

1 hour ago, Peach King said:

Renly doesn't know that Ned plans to make Stannis king, but he knows that Ned knows Stannis comes before Renly in the succession.

Robert was also the one with the best claim.

LOL, no. The best claim was the claim of King Viserys III, Aerys II's sole surviving son and anointed heir. As Robb so eloquently points out during the war council: he, Robb, has issues with Joffrey and is never going to make peace with him, but once Joffrey has been put down Tommen should take the throne as his heir. Viserys had no hands in the crimes of either Rhaegar or Aerys II, and he was both the king's chosen heir as well as the last male scion of House Targaryen alive. He was the rightful king.

Yet Ned didn't support him. He supported his buddy Robert, who was Viserys III's second cousin. That shows us that neither Renly nor anybody else should expect Ned to be a stickler for the line of succession as he happened to be.

Ned and Jon and Robert are the people who taught Renly that he could be king even if he wasn't the immediate heir. So why should he believe Ned would stick to the rules when he didn't back when Aerys II was killed?

1 hour ago, Peach King said:

Robert didn't hate Stannis. And he doesn't care about his policies, especially since he's going to die soon.

Robert does want to give the Realm a good ruler. That's why he makes Ned Lord Regent and Protector of the Realm knowing fully well that neither Cersei nor his brothers will like that. He is also concerned with how posterity is going to judge him (he asks Ned whether he was a better king than Aerys II, and he cancels the Daenerys assassination).

The regency goes to Ned because Robert knows Ned will make a good ruler despite the fact that he is going to hate the fact that he has to do this job. But Robert also knows his brothers, and the idea that he would have to hand over the Realm to Stannis would not sit well with him. Stannis as king will inevitably mean war - as Littlefinger previously pointed out - and a war that might last for quite some time because Stannis isn't the kind of guy who compromises. Combine that with the prospect that Stannis would enact silly laws that Robert could not really stomach (like outlawing prostitution) and it seems rather likely that Robert would not want to make such a man king.

That isn't a guarantee that he he has to turn to Renly, but that is a possibility. Renly is the guy who could minimize the violence after his death, could deal with Tywin in a manner that doesn't consume the entire Realm (a King Stannis could not count on the help of the Tyrells in a war against the Lannisters).

Those are all things that have to be taken into account in such a scenario. And it is clear that when a king dies without an heir of his own body then not some strict line of succession decides what happens but the king's own choice (like it was when Prince Aemon died in 92 AC, or when Aerys I had no issue). In absence of that you have a civil war on your hands - which also threatened when Maekar died. Only the second Great Council prevented that. If the Great Council pick Aegon V instead of Maegor or Vaella, if Aerys II can name Viserys III his heir rather than Prince Aegon, if Jaehaerys I can name Baelon and later offer the throne to Vaegon, then Robert Baratheon could certainly also name his youngest brother his heir rather than insisting that Stannis must follow him in any case.

1 hour ago, Peach King said:

Robert had named Stannis his heir by giving him Dragonstone way back. There is no reason for him to name Renly.

This is actually wrong. Stannis was King Robert's presumptive heir until his first son was born, but he was never named Heir Apparent to the Iron Throne as far as we know. He was named Lord of Dragonstone (because Robert wanted a strong and loyal man holding the Targaryen fortress to prevent Viserys III from coming back) and that certainly had a certain prestige with it. But the very fact that Stannis was merely the Lord of Dragonstone, not the Prince of Dragonstone means that this grant did not make him the heir to the Iron Throne.

Not to mention that we don't yet know when exactly Stannis became Lord of Dragonstone. Immediately after he took Dragonstone from the Targaryens? Or only some years later? We have no idea.

1 hour ago, Peach King said:

The Council members would ensure that such a decree leaves his bedchamber.

You mean like they did when Ned forged Robert's last will? They weren't even there then.

1 hour ago, Peach King said:

Besides, another reason Renly might not have have told Robert could be because he loves him and doesn't want to ruin his last moments (like Ned). Or he might not have the balls to say it directly to Robert's face.

Renly is pretty calm when they talk in Robert's bedchamber - and thereafter, too. He seems somewhat sad, but not particularly stricken. There is no indication to believe that he loved him all that much - in fact, he is very quick to think about his own advantage and advancement while his brother is not even dead yet. Those are not the actions of a man who loved his brother.

Ned is the guy who truly loved Robert - and it is that love which, in part, prevents him from making the right decisions in those crucial moments. He did not expect Robert's death and he doesn't think straight. That is the reason why he rejects both Renly's and later Littlefinger's offer.

1 hour ago, Peach King said:

Ned would never support a younger brother over the elder.

But a cousin with a shitty claim over the rightful heir?

1 hour ago, Peach King said:

They would probably have needed it for keeping control of the city.

Yeah, and once they had the castle the City Watch would have fallen in line.

1 hour ago, Peach King said:

What has Renly learnt from Ned's refusal of his "safe plan"?

a) Ned doesn't want to harm children. Now he's suddenly going to say they're incestuous bastards?

He could have started with the bastard story, or, you know, include that detail in his original pitch. He could have told it to Ned before Ned rejected the offer.

1 hour ago, Peach King said:

Incest is a crime. That mean Renly might kill the children. Ned doesn't want that. Ned will refuse to support Renly. Renly would just look like a greedy uncle who wants to sieze power.

How does Renly know any of that. And how is it a given they have to kill the children?! That's not a given!

1 hour ago, Peach King said:

Ned would definitely support Stannis if the truth came out.

If Renly didn't ask Ned about that, we cannot presuppose he would have believed that. Renly also thought Dorne would join him or considered it a possibility Robb kept his crown but did fealty to him as his overlord.

1 hour ago, Peach King said:

That doesn't mean Cersei would kill him, as he seems to think.

That's not clear. He ominously says that the Lannisters know no mercy, but he was suggesting that he and Ned stage a coup. It is clear that when you try a coup the other side is going to pay you back in kind. And Renly knew that Cersei did not like the idea of Ned taking the regency - and he knew that Ned didn't get along with Cersei and would have to force her out to take the regency.

What Cersei would have done to Renly had he tried to make common cause with her against Ned and/or Stannis we will never know, but it seems clear that he feared Cersei because he wanted to destroy her - and Cersei did not want to be destroyed by Renly and would thus fight back and try to destroy him first.

1 hour ago, Peach King said:

And he doesn't have issues with Cersei. He just mocks her every once in a while for good fun, like everyone else.

If he had had no issues with Cersei, he would not have tried to replace her with Margaery. You don't try to get rid of your sister-in-law if you get along with her. And if he had gotten along with Cersei, Cersei could have given him what he tried to accomplish by making Margaery queen. He wouldn't have needed Margaery.

1 hour ago, Peach King said:

No, Olenna is talking about the match to Renly here.

You are right, but the point still remains that this doesn't tell us anything what the Tyrells wanted to come out of the Robert-Margaery thing. Renly-Margaery certainly could, eventually, result in there being a child and that child would then eventually also succeed to the throne if all went well. But Olenna makes it clear that Mace's main desire - and the way to sell this idea to her - was the prospect of them seeing Margaery become a queen:

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The old woman turned back to Sansa. “It’s treason, I warned them, Robert has two sons, and Renly has an older brother, how can he possibly have any claim to that ugly iron chair? Tut-tut, says my son, don’t you want your sweetling to be queen? You Starks were kings once, the Arryns and the Lannisters as well, and even the Baratheons through the female line, but the Tyrells were no more than stewards until Aegon the Dragon came along and cooked the rightful King of the Reach on the Field of Fire. If truth be told, even our claim to Highgarden is a bit dodgy, just as those dreadful Florents are always whining. ‘What does it matter?’ you ask, and of course it doesn’t, except to oafs like my son. The thought that one day he may see his grandson with his arse on the Iron Throne makes Mace puff up like … now, what do you call it? Margaery, you’re clever, be a dear and tell your poor old half-daft grandmother the name of that queer fish from the Summer Isles that puffs up to ten times its own size when you poke it.”

“They call them puff fish, Grandmother.”

“Of course they do. Summer Islanders have no imagination. My son ought to take the puff fish for his sigil, if truth be told. He could put a crown on it, the way the Baratheons do their stag, mayhap that would make him happy. We should have stayed well out of all this bloody foolishness if you ask me, but once the cow’s been milked there’s no squirting the cream back up her udder. After Lord Puff Fish put that crown on Renly’s head, we were into the pudding up to our knees, so here we are to see things through. And what do you say to that, Sansa?”

[...]

“Do you know my son, Sansa? Lord Puff Fish of Highgarden?”

“A great lord,” Sansa answered politely.

“A great oaf,” said the Queen of Thorns. “His father was an oaf as well. My husband, the late Lord Luthor. Oh, I loved him well enough, don’t mistake me. A kind man, and not unskilled in the bedchamber, but an appalling oaf all the same. He managed to ride off a cliff whilst hawking. They say he was looking up at the sky and paying no mind to where his horse was taking him.

And now my oaf son is doing the same, only he’s riding a lion instead of a palfrey. It is easy to mount a lion and not so easy to get off, I warned him, but he only chuckles. Should you ever have a son, Sansa, beat him frequently so he learns to mind you. I only had the one boy and I hardly beat him at all, so now he pays more heed to Butterbumps than he does to me. A lion is not a lap cat, I told him, and he gives me a ‘tut-tut-Mother.’ There is entirely too much tut-tut-ting in this realm, if you ask me. All these kings would do a deal better if they would put down their swords and listen to their mothers.”

Olenna did everything in her power to keep the Tyrells out of the War of the Five Kings. But she was overruled by whoever she refers to as them (likely Mace and Loras Tyrell, Renly, and some of the crucial Tyrell bannermen who they had already convinced to support Renly's bid to the throne).

Olenna Redwyne (and Garlan and Willas Tyrell, possibly not even Alerie and Margaery) aren't particularly ambitious. It is all Mace (and Loras insofar as he likely also wanted to see Renly on the throne - or at least do everything he can to help him in his ambitions).

Olenna is the cleaner in the background who tries to ensure that her son's ambitions don't ruin himself and the family - that's why she decided to murder Joffrey. She could not prevent the Joffrey-Margaery match but she knew it would lead to trouble so she ensured Tommen would be the king Margaery married.

1 hour ago, Peach King said:

Mace is a cautious man. He wouldn't risk angering the Lannisters and put his beloved daughter in danger by throwing her at Robert without a viable plan. Robert dies, Joffrey assumes power, Margaery's head is on a pike. Or Tywin sends assassins. Or Tywin goes to war.

Mace doesn't even understand that marrying Margaery to Joffrey puts her in danger. He is neither cautious not particularly effective. He is ambitious and greedy, though, and craving recognition by his peers.

1 hour ago, Peach King said:

And Mace is a Lord Paramount. I can't see him throwing away his only daughter in a reckless plan. Mace needs a grandson on the throne to secure legitimacy on the Reach, he doesn't get that with a queen.

What? He is pretty secure in the Reach by now. The Tyrell claim is not all that good, but their hold on the land is.

Both the Renly plan and the Robert plan were reckless - and the Joffrey plan was completely irresponsible, especially once they also decided to make Loras a Kingsguard.

Come to think of it, the fact that Olenna never mentions the Robert-Margaery plan could indicate that Olenna was never told about that one, and that the reason that Mace had never sent his daughter to court was the fact that he hadn't yet dared to reveal to his mother that he intended to make Margaery Robert's whore/mistress/bride.

I'm pretty sure Olenna would have exploded had anyone ever suggested that silly plan to her. Because the chances that this idea would ruin Margaery's reputation as well as destroy her happiness for good are actually pretty high.

1 hour ago, Peach King said:

You seem to think Renly is subtle and sneaky and a good politician yet he didn't know about the incest. Something is amiss here.

Man, don't you get that even smart people can make mistakes or overlook things? That's actually a major theme in the series as well as something common sense tells us.

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Stannis did not want to tell Robert directly - and when he first contacted Jon Arryn they had just suspicions, not even the kind of 'evidence' Stannis later thinks he has. Stannis knew of Edric Storm (and likely had a description of him although I doubt he ever saw the boy before ACoK) and Jon may have known Mya Stone in the Vale. Then they went and looked at Gendry and Barra, and Jon eventually read that book - but all that's not evidence.

Stannis seems to have concluded his suspicions were correct when Jon suddenly died and he jumped to the conclusion Cersei had him poisoned.

After that he should have shared his suspicions with Robert - that he chose not to do that was, in my opinion, treason.

Just as Renly would have been a filthy traitor, by the way, if he had known about the incest (i.e. had good reason to believe Cersei's children were not Robert's) and kept his tongue

I don't blame Renly or Stannis. Robert has an infamous temper. I'd rather keep my life or position than try to be honourable. They didn't expect Robert to die.

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He longer gave a shit after he crowned himself, though. And certainly nobody told either Stannis or Renly about the fact that they mentioned their claims at the Riverrun war council before their went around and proclaimed Robb king.

Catelyn makes it crystal clear that neither she nor her son intend for Robb to give up his crown and bend the knee to either Renly or Stannis - and that makes Robb a traitor in their eyes. Renly takes the nice guy approach, permitting Robb to keep the title of king if acknowledges Renly as his overlord, and Stannis takes the bad guy approach - making it clear he is going to deal with Robb the same way as he will deal with Renly and the Lannisters

Well, the incest claims don't really help Renly by that point. And later he probes Catelyn about it, and asks her opinion - when she says it makes Stannis the rightful king he backtracks.

I mean I'm unsure if he actually thought Stannis would join him.

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Stannis does no such thing - but my point was that Renly presents a powerful anti-Lannister (and, by extension, anti-Stark/Tully) front by trying to paint the picture to Cat that he does not only have the Stormlands and the Reach but also Stannis and, allegedly, Dorne to pressure Robb and his allies into submission without them actually fighting each other.

That's also why they inquire when Robb intends to march against Lord Tywin - they hope the Starks and Lannisters will weaken each other, so Renly can mop up the survivors later. There is a reason why Renly takes his time with his march to KL

I think that wasn't his idea - Renly is called impulsive and reckless by Cressen and his driving his cavalry to Storm's End when Stannis sieged the castle shows this.

I think he's smart but uncaring and generally ineffective.

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But you have no proof that this is incentive. Perhaps he only chose Margaery for his game because he happens to be Loras' lover and he needs some pawn to use against Cersei because he wants her gone so badly. We don't know what drove him, so don't pretend you do know.

Ok then, YOU also can't pretend to know what Renly would have done. And you can't pretend to know what Renly wanted. Maybe it was to make Margaery queen. Maybe it was added fame/power/wealth.

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That could happen. But then - if the truth is out and a sufficient number of people believe the king's children are abominations born of incest and adultery, Joffrey, Tommen, or Myrcella would have face great problems taking the throne. Such a thing could backfire - and it isn't a given that Cersei/Jaime could or would kill Robert.

They didn't face much problems in ACOK and after - Dorne even betrothed Mycella to Trystane.

Are you kidding? One is his wife and one is his Kingsguard. They have infinite chances to kill him.

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That just an ad hoc explanation - yes, Robert likes to look the other way. But Ned himself he is not going to look the other way when he is told about the incest. He fears he will kill Cersei's children - that would be a monstrous act, and he wants to save the lives of the children. Ned's assessment here is more worth than yours, and it implies that the people who knew Robert best knew he would not necessarily ignore this thing.

Ned was looking at it from the point of view of him telling him about the incest, he is also Robert's best friend and the person he trusts the most. Some random person telling the king that would only piss him off, even Stannis didn't try. It's true he might get suspicious, and try to spy on Cersei or ask her questions - and it might drive her to kill him sooner or she might try to get her children out of the city. Great plan!

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Man, you are contradicting yourself. Didn't you say they were not subtle? If they are not subtle a subtle person could have lured them into a trap

Just because they weren't subtle doesn't mean its easy to convince Robert they were doing it. Like the Sept scene shows, they probably never get totally naked unless they have total privacy, which is rare. Renly would have to convince Robert to follow him and go to the location where they're doing it. Robert has no reason to follow him and Jaime and Cersei could be gone before he came. Also Renly has to either follow them all day - which means they could see him and grow paranoid - or send someone else to follow them, someone who would then have to report back to Renly and then Renly would have to report back to Robert. Basically, not worth the trouble.

And how exactly is Renly going to set a "trap"? Renly spies on them. Ok. They enter a room. Renly locks them in and calls Robert. They open the door. Jaime and Cersei are just talking fully dressed like normal siblings. Robert hits Renly for wasting his time. Or maybe they do catch them and Jaime goes crazy and kills the fuck out of Robert. He's a Kingsguard so has his sword with him at all times. That almost happened in one scene of the book. Or do you think he throws a net over them? Or makes them fall into a pit? Lmao. As I said, uncontrolled situation.

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The point is that Renly could have taken the same indirect approach to the incest. Feeding Robert pieces about Jaime looking like his children, Jaime spending a lot of time with Cersei, Jaime being awfully and close to Cersei, Jaime and Cersei appearing as if they were romatically in love, etc.

I mean, seriously, it is a very old trick to poison a man against his wife. Just ask Othello! Renly could have been Robert's Iago. And it should have been much easier if the woman in question is actually unfaithful.

It is ridiculous how you try to dismiss that Renly would have taken such an approach had he known.

Sorry, but that's just too stupid. Telling your brother about a hot girl is one thing, but if Renly started loudly whispering about the queens treason that would get him killed faster than Robert. Robert could question Cersei or tell her what Renly said - since he's unsubtle and kind of dumb - and that puts Renly or Robert's life in danger. Renly wants Robert alive.

It would also take longer than the Margaery plan.

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And it is also quite clear why Stannis wouldn't have taken such an approach - because he cannot really plot, and such a thing would have been beneath him.

Then why didn't Stannis take any of the "dutiful" approaches I listed above?

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LOL, right.

Cressen and Renly give us Renly's motivation in ACOK:

Even as a boy, Renly had loved bright colors and rich fabrics, and he had loved his games as well. "Look at me!" he would shout as he ran laughing through the halls of Storm's End. "Look at me, I'm a dragon," or "Look at me, I'm a wizard," or "Look at me, look at me, I'm the rain god."

The bold little boy with wild black hair and laughing eyes was a man grown now, one-and-twenty, and still he played his games. Look at me, I'm a king, Cressen thought sadly. Oh, Renly, Renly, dear sweet child, do you know what you are doing? And would you care if you did? Is there anyone who cares for him but me? 

-ACOK, PROLOGUE

Why the oldest son, and not the best-fitted? The crown will suit me, as it never suited Robert and would not suit Stannis. I have it in me to be a great king, strong yet generous, clever, just, diligent, loyal to my friends and terrible to my enemies, yet capable of forgiveness, patient—"

-ACOK, Catelyn IV 

It's a desire for attention and feeding his own vanity.

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Because he couldn't be sure the whole idea would succeed. It was a gamble. I mean, Margaery is a 14-year-old child in AGoT, and Robert is a fat, old drunkard. Renly hoped the Lyanna factor would kick in there, but the whole thing was never likely to succeed at all.

It's taken very seriously by the plot, and several people think it could happen. I agree it's gross, but given the age of Barra's mother, I don't think her age was going to be a turnoff.

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If he had known a way to increase his chances to destroy Cersei (and make Margaery the new queen) he would have taken that. That he didn't do that is all the proof we need to be sure you are wrong here.

Nah. Renly's plan was fine, and relatively straightforward. Day 1: Ask Ned if Margaery looks like Lyanna. Day 2: Show locket to Robert Day 3: Send letter. However Robert went on his hunt on Day 11, while he was waiting for Margaery to come to court and that ruined everything. He wasn't waiting a long time.

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Why should Renly do any of that? He doesn't know about the incest, and when Robert dies he decides he wants to be king - he doesn't give a damn about Robert's children or his older brother, he just wants the crown.

He doesn't need to know the incest to do it. He should do it because he wouldn't be known as a kinslayer or usurper and have to put down rebellions forever. But his ego would not let him do it.

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That is not very likely considering that he himself would not profit in making Margaery the queen. He is not a Tyrell himself.

Having his allies tied to the crown and having the queen's ear would immensely help Renly, and Robert would also grant him favour.

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I agree that Renly is no good plotter - he actually failed to keep in Margaery plot a secret from crucial people at court. But he would have acted quite differently had he known about the incest.

No, you can't say that for sure.

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LOL, no. If Jaime and Cersei had been caught abed together in 298 AC then this wouldn't have proven that Cersei's children were Jaime's - because this could have been the first they had sex. Or their affair could ahve started in the mid 290s.

Proving Cersei is an adulteress isn't the same as proving her children are not the children of her husband.

See my reaction to the plan of "catching Jaime and Cersei in bed" up there. 

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Right, because a king who just executed his wife would immediately marry some random girl and not, say, waiting half a year or longer before he trusts another woman enough to be the mother of his children

Robert would want someone to assure him of his virility (gross) after just being shamed by his wife in front of the whole country.

And it doesn't gave to be a marriage, it could be a betrothal. Lords would be throwing their daughters at him. 

And this could happen:

"Let me tell you a secret, Ned. More than once, I have dreamed of giving up the crown. Take ship for the Free Cities with my horse and my hammer, spend my time warring and whoring, that's what I was made for. The sellsword king, how the singers would love me. You know what stops me? The thought of Joffrey on the throne, with Cersei standing behind him whispering in his ear."

-AGOT, Eddard VII

With Cersei gone, Robert has no reason to fear Joffrey being on the throne.

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Renly spreads a lot of rumors, actually. He claims the Dornishmen will join when there is no indication that they ever entertained the thought.

That's not a rumour, that's a boast. A boast he actually believed in as Tyrion tells us he took the Dornish for granted.

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Something that could lead to their downfall ... and to Renly's rise to the throne. If Cersei and Robert had killed each other Renly could have become king ... to marry Margaery, like he did in the end. Sounds like a good plan to me.

There's no guarantee Robert dies at the same time as Cersei. And Stannis would be heir anyways. We also don't have any indication Renly had any kingly aspirations prior Robert's death, and he must have some fondness for Robert.

And hell if we're going down that path the plan could be to kill Robert after he marries Margaery and marry her himself.

So Renly just didnt do all those things because
a) He didn't think of it
b) His plan was to marry Marg to Robert and he wasn't in a great hurry. The boar killing Robert was very unexpected
c) Renly wouldn't get recognition for revealing the incest.
d) His plan was fine anyways, and your alternatives aren't much better.

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There is no evidence that this would have to be the case. Renly could have brought Littlefinger on board. Or they could have agreed together to kill Ned if he insisted on making Stannis king, using him only as muscle until they have secured castles and city and taken out the Lannisters.

But as you should know - they did not need the City Watch for the castle. And once they had the castle and Cersei and the children the City Watch could do nothing about them since they would have royal hostages. If Slynt was a Lannister toady - which he was not - then any attempt to move against Renly would have meant endangering the lives of Cersei and her children

That could have happened. But it's also possible he stages a counter coup or opens the gates for Tywin. The Lannisters have Sansa and would reward Littlefinger greatly for helping them. 

The point is moot anyway as Renly didn't even consider the goldcloaks, so that wouldn't factor into his decision.

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LOL, first there are no Lannister men of note in the city - they are in the castle, and those would be killed by Renly's and Ned's men. Second, no man loyal to Tywin Lannister would dare to storm the castle and risk the deaths of his daughter and grandchildren no matter what Renly and Ned had said they were.

Sorry, I thought you were talking about Renly releasing news of the incest when he didn't have the Lannister heirs under his control.

And not really. Imagine this scenario. Tywin is just outside KL. The Reach and Stormland armies are pressing in. Stannis has declared at well, angered at Renly crowning himself. Tywin is in a lose lose situation. He thinks Renly will have the children killed anyway, and he himself will be decimated by the armies outside. So he storms the Red Keep, vowing to take down Ned and Renly along with himself. Perfectly possible. Remember Rodrik and Beth Cassel?

What happens next is hard to say. The Reach and Stormlands army probably disperse just like in canon, the Stormlands army goes to Stannis and he comes to KL. Whoever wins, Aegon could easily take over.

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Stannis knew he could not hold KL if he took it by storm, because Tywin had a large army not that far away - and Renly was marching on the capital, too. KL never had enough defenders to protect the city against an army.

True that, and that's why Tywin could cause great problems for Renly.

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He authorized his execution after a successful coup that made his mother the regent. After he was crowned and anointed king, when he was in a position of relative strength.

See above. I was working with the assumption that Renly wasn't in the Red Keep.

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How do you know that? There is nothing in the text that reveals whether Cersei went to Littlefinger (like Ned also asked Littlefinger for his help) or whether Littlefinger went to Ned.

In fact, the facts that our good Petyr did reap exactly no great rewards for his role in the succession crisis - Slynt became Lord of Harrenhal; and Petyr got was to keep his seat on the council - and the fact that Cersei herself credits Sansa's betrayal as the crucial factor in her victory over Ned strongly indicates Littlefinger did not offer his help to Cersei. She just demanded that he do what he did - and he complied because Ned had rejected his offer.

Ok I'll concede this point.

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It would still have been a gamble a sane person would have done - just as a sane person would have told Robert himself back in the forest after the boar ravaged him (so that they could immediately arrest and deal with Cersei once the dying king was return to his castle.

There is simply no evidence whatsoever that Renly knew. And in addition to Ned Renly would also have done his best to inform the other lords of the council - especially Selmy - so that they would not be able to just crown Joffrey as Robert's son.

See above.

That makes Stannis king, which Renly wouldn't want either.

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Renly has no reason to believe that Ned would be particularly loyal to Stannis.

He has reason to believe Ned is an HONORABLE man. Honorable people tend to care about the line of succession.

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Actually, no, that would be a shitty plan.

Ned himself drops the ball of honestly and straightforwardness when he decides to not involve Robert in his own succession. He plays a very deceptive game there, trying to get himself confirmed as Lord Regent and Protector of the Realm for a king he has no intention of crowning. If Cersei's children are not Robert's, then there is no need for a regent, and as such Ned has no right to get himself confirmed as regent.

Renly knows that Robert named Ned the regent and wants to make common cause with him. Renly has no reason to believe Ned would relinquish the regency after they have taken Cersei and the children into their custody. He either wanted to share in Ned's power or, my guess, see to it that Robert's children don't survive their father long because the men who would take Maegor's Holdfast would be his men and he could either repeat Tywin's stunt during the Sack, or ensure it that the children later suffer accidents in their apartments (sort of like Unwin Peake got rid of Queen Jaehaera).

After the children are dead, there would no longer be a need for a regent, and Renly could either sent Ned back home, get him on board with his 'I want to be king' plan, or just kill him. The majority of the men taking the Red Keep would have been Renly's men in such a scenario.

Killing Lord Paramounts is no small matter. If Renly withheld the incest, he wouldn't put Ned on his guard, and later might not have to start a messy war by disposing of him when he wants to support Stannis. He could play upon Ned's concern for his own children, who Ned wouldn't want in the den of snakes and future warzone that is KL, and convince him to break the betrothal of Joffrey to Sansa and go North, and name him Lord Protector instead. Joffrey would be under Renly's safe guard, you don't have to worry about a thing. Then, he crowns himself. There, a very clean plan where he doesn't have to make enemies with the North and Riverlands.

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LOL, no. The best claim was the claim of King Viserys III, Aerys II's sole surviving son and anointed heir. As Robb so eloquently points out during the war council: he, Robb, has issues with Joffrey and is never going to make peace with him, but once Joffrey has been put down Tommen should take the throne as his heir. Viserys had no hands in the crimes of either Rhaegar or Aerys II, and he was both the king's chosen heir as well as the last male scion of House Targaryen alive. He was the rightful king.

Yet Ned didn't support him. He supported his buddy Robert, who was Viserys III's second cousin. That shows us that neither Renly nor anybody else should expect Ned to be a stickler for the line of succession as he happened to be.

Ned and Jon and Robert are the people who taught Renly that he could be king even if he wasn't the immediate heir. So why should he believe Ned would stick to the rules when he didn't back when Aerys II was killed?

LOOL he wasn't in the city, was he? 

Robert had the best claim amongst Jon Arryn and Ned.

Cause Ned is known as an honorable man?

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Robert does want to give the Realm a good ruler. That's why he makes Ned Lord Regent and Protector of the Realm knowing fully well that neither Cersei nor his brothers will like that. He is also concerned with how posterity is going to judge him (he asks Ned whether he was a better king than Aerys II, and he cancels the Daenerys assassination).

The regency goes to Ned because Robert knows Ned will make a good ruler despite the fact that he is going to hate the fact that he has to do this job. But Robert also knows his brothers, and the idea that he would have to hand over the Realm to Stannis would not sit well with him. Stannis as king will inevitably mean war - as Littlefinger previously pointed out - and a war that might last for quite some time because Stannis isn't the kind of guy who compromises. Combine that with the prospect that Stannis would enact silly laws that Robert could not really stomach (like outlawing prostitution) and it seems rather likely that Robert would not want to make such a man king.

That isn't a guarantee that he he has to turn to Renly, but that is a possibility. Renly is the guy who could minimize the violence after his death, could deal with Tywin in a manner that doesn't consume the entire Realm (a King Stannis could not count on the help of the Tyrells in a war against the Lannisters).

Those are all things that have to be taken into account in such a scenario. And it is clear that when a king dies without an heir of his own body then not some strict line of succession decides what happens but the king's own choice (like it was when Prince Aemon died in 92 AC, or when Aerys I had no issue). In absence of that you have a civil war on your hands - which also threatened when Maekar died. Only the second Great Council prevented that. If the Great Council pick Aegon V instead of Maegor or Vaella, if Aerys II can name Viserys III his heir rather than Prince Aegon, if Jaehaerys I can name Baelon and later offer the throne to Vaegon, then Robert Baratheon could certainly also name his youngest brother his heir rather than insisting that Stannis must follow him in any case.

Renly had no reason to believe Robert would name him the heir. He was not with Ned when Robert voiced his regrets and said he wanted Ned to be Lord Protector. Since he doesn't know Robert's state of mind at his death, he wouldn't think Robert would name him heir at all. Robert called Renly useless on his deathbed, he probably doesn't think he's fit to rule a kingdom.

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This is actually wrong. Stannis was King Robert's presumptive heir until his first son was born, but he was never named Heir Apparent to the Iron Throne as far as we know. He was named Lord of Dragonstone (because Robert wanted a strong and loyal man holding the Targaryen fortress to prevent Viserys III from coming back) and that certainly had a certain prestige with it. But the very fact that Stannis was merely the Lord of Dragonstone, not the Prince of Dragonstone means that this grant did not make him the heir to the Iron Throne.

Not to mention that we don't yet know when exactly Stannis became Lord of Dragonstone. Immediately after he took Dragonstone from the Targaryens? Or only some years later? We have no idea.

Stannis always resented being given Dragonstone while Renly got Storm's End, and took that as a slight... but it's not necessarily true that Robert meant it that way. The Targaryen heir apparent had always been titled Prince of Dragonstone. By making Stannis the Lord of Dragonstone, Robert affirmed his brother's status as heir (which he was, until Joff's birth a few years later). Robert could just as lawfully retained both castles for his sons, and made Joffrey the Prince of Dragonstone and Tommen the Lord of Storm's End. Giving them to his brothers instead was another instance of his great, but rather careless, generosity.

- GRRM

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You mean like they did when Ned forged Robert's last will? They weren't even there then.

If Renly's going to tell Robert of the incest there would have to be witnesses.

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Renly is pretty calm when they talk in Robert's bedchamber - and thereafter, too. He seems somewhat sad, but not particularly stricken. There is no indication to believe that he loved him all that much - in fact, he is very quick to think about his own advantage and advancement while his brother is not even dead yet. Those are not the actions of a man who loved his brother.

He was pacing and seemed agitated. He lost his usual carefree manner. He was sweating too - and he spoke in awe of how Robert killed the boar. Stannis says Renly worshipped Robert when he was young.

Stannis also loved Renly and Robert - yet he killed one and left one in danger.

He was thinking of ways to keep his head, actually.

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But a cousin with a shitty claim over the rightful heir?

The rightful heir was a child, and more importantly - wasn't in Kingslanding. 

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Yeah, and once they had the castle the City Watch would have fallen in line.

Not a guarantee.

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He could have started with the bastard story, or, you know, include that detail in his original pitch. He could have told it to Ned before Ned rejected the offer.

How does Renly know any of that. And how is it a given they have to kill the children?! That's not a given!

Do you not know how suspicious it would seem if Renly came out of the blue with an unbelievable story that the heirs to the throne are incest bastards when he is the only Baratheon claimant in the city? That would only serve to alienate Ned.

Ned is also still Hand, and the Hand outranks the King's brother. Ned could punish him for treason.

So he suggests a "safe" plan, one where he doesn't seem self serving and just wants to preserve his life (though he did want to preserve his life). He might have revealed the incest afterwards, when his position in KL would be secure and Lannisters were under control. 

But when Ned remains honorable, Renly flees. He knows by that point that Ned will support Stannis and he could have a fight with him later when he thinks Renly wants to sieze power - which might cause a war with more enemies than he needs. Renly has only a narrow timeframe to declare himself king - Ned is going to contact Stannis, and Stannis is going to get there before the Reach and Stormlands army. Renly's allies are mentioned by Littlefinger - Bronze Yohn, Lady Tanda, the Redwyne twins. These are people who probably won't support Renly if he decides to kill Ned and crown himself. It could be Ned leaving Renly out in the cold, instead of the other way around.

So he could stab Ned in the back, but that's just idiotic. Renly would have the North, the Riverlands, the Westerlands, the Vale, the Narrow sea Houses and Dragonstone against him, and even his own allies.

Bastards were common enough, but incest was a monstrous sin to both old gods and the new, and the children of such wickedness were named abominations in sept and godswood alike. 

- These are Catelyn's thoughts on incest and incest bred children, and she worships the Seven. 

Besides, the children are still heirs to the throne as incest cannot be proven. There's too many reasons to kill them for Ned to think Renly wouldn't, especially if he decided to crown himself. Ned wouldn't go home since he cares deeply about the lives of children, to the point where he puts his own life in danger to protect them. 

Going to Highgarden was the best thing for Renly after Ned refused him - that way lies the cleaner path to being king/making sure Stannis isn't king.

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If Renly didn't ask Ned about that, we cannot presuppose he would have believed that. Renly also thought Dorne would join him or considered it a possibility Robb kept his crown but did fealty to him as his overlord.

If Renly thought Ned didn't give a damn about the laws of succession, he would have asked him to crown him even if he didnt know. He would have made the same offer as TV Renly. So that means he does think Ned gives a damn.

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That's not clear. He ominously says that the Lannisters know no mercy, but he was suggesting that he and Ned stage a coup. It is clear that when you try a coup the other side is going to pay you back in kind. And Renly knew that Cersei did not like the idea of Ned taking the regency - and he knew that Ned didn't get along with Cersei and would have to force her out to take the regency.

What Cersei would have done to Renly had he tried to make common cause with her against Ned and/or Stannis we will never know, but it seems clear that he feared Cersei because he wanted to destroy her - and Cersei did not want to be destroyed by Renly and would thus fight back and try to destroy him first.

Renly's proposing a coup because he's afraid, not the other way around.

Renly could have worked with Cersei and been her ally at the pivotal moment. You're telling me Renly was so afraid because he wanted to destroy Cersei so much he would be forced to and she would retaliate? Renly didn't have to fight against Cersei.

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If he had had no issues with Cersei, he would not have tried to replace her with Margaery. You don't try to get rid of your sister-in-law if you get along with her. And if he had gotten along with Cersei, Cersei could have given him what he tried to accomplish by making Margaery queen. He wouldn't have needed Margaery.

That the plan of wedding Marg to Robert entailed getting rid of Cersei does not mean Renly has a problem with Cersei.

He would not get the same advantages by getting along with Cersei. Removing Cersei would open a gap in the positions in KL which he could fill with his own men - and he would have both the queen's ear and the King's ear. He would have made himself indispensible to the new regime, and it wouldn't take hours of sucking up to Cersei to do it.

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You are right, but the point still remains that this doesn't tell us anything what the Tyrells wanted to come out of the Robert-Margaery thing. Renly-Margaery certainly could, eventually, result in there being a child and that child would then eventually also succeed to the throne if all went well. But Olenna makes it clear that Mace's main desire - and the way to sell this idea to her - was the prospect of them seeing Margaery become a queen:

She says exactly one line - "tut tut, he says to me, don't you want your daughter to be a queen?" in the very same conversation she says Mace wanted a grandson on the throne. So this idea that Mace wants a queen for a daughter first and foremost is never in the text. 

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Olenna did everything in her power to keep the Tyrells out of the War of the Five Kings. But she was overruled by whoever she refers to as them (likely Mace and Loras Tyrell, Renly, and some of the crucial Tyrell bannermen who they had already convinced to support Renly's bid to the throne).

Olenna Redwyne (and Garlan and Willas Tyrell, possibly not even Alerie and Margaery) aren't particularly ambitious. It is all Mace (and Loras insofar as he likely also wanted to see Renly on the throne - or at least do everything he can to help him in his ambitions).

Olenna might have lied etc etc, GRRM said Show Margaery is book Margaery and wants to be queen etc etc. And we know nothing about Garlan and Willas' motivations.  

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Mace doesn't even understand that marrying Margaery to Joffrey puts her in danger. He is neither cautious not particularly effective. He is ambitious and greedy, though, and craving recognition by his peers.

What? He is pretty secure in the Reach by now. The Tyrell claim is not all that good, but their hold on the land is.

Both the Renly plan and the Robert plan were reckless - and the Joffrey plan was completely irresponsible, especially once they also decided to make Loras a Kingsguard.

Mace is cautious. The Renly plan was not reckless, he would have won easily if not for the shadow baby, and even then he did not commit and stayed at Highgarden and only gave his army over to the new regime at the Blackwater. He made Loras Kingsguard to protect Margaery, and he didnt know the extent of Joffrey's cruelty. Olenna interviewed Littlefinger so she knew, that's why she had him killed.

And not really:

If truth be told, even our claim to Highgarden is a bit dodgy, just as those dreadful Florents are always whining. 'What does it matter?' you ask, and of course it doesn't, except to oafs like my son.

Actually that's a very good reason why the incest should not be revealed until it's a sure thing Margaery is queen, if Stannis is heir, he has a Florent queen, and that doesn't bode very well for the Tyrells.

A Lord Paramount marrying their only daughter to a king when he already has a queen and legitimate heirs is unheard of.

The Tyrells could have tried to marry Margaery to Joffrey, and if Robert was dead set against it, to Tommen. That would have gotten them more or less the same amount of influence with less risks.

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Come to think of it, the fact that Olenna never mentions the Robert-Margaery plan could indicate that Olenna was never told about that one, and that the reason that Mace had never sent his daughter to court was the fact that he hadn't yet dared to reveal to his mother that he intended to make Margaery Robert's whore/mistress/bride.

I'm pretty sure Olenna would have exploded had anyone ever suggested that silly plan to her. Because the chances that this idea would ruin Margaery's reputation as well as destroy her happiness for good are actually pretty high.

I agree that the plan was mostly a Renly-Mace production, but why would Olenna feel the need to tell Sansa about it?

And I don't think Robert would throw Margaery aside: (copied from SA's tumblr)

1. Margaery was not merely highborn but a lady of a Great House, and royals dishonoring Great Houses can lead to outright rebellions so setting her aside has more downside risk than with Delena. Robert might be fickle but he’s also conflict-averse. 

2. When Robert set Delena aside, he already had a male heir with Cersei. There was no need to legitimize a bastard through marriage to the mother in order to procure legitimate offspring. If Joffrey et al. are disinherited, all of the sudden Robert really needs a male heir in a hurry. 

3. The correct timing of the reveal would make Robert more likely to cleave to Margaery than set her aside: having his queen commit adultery with her brother is not only an act of treason but a huge loss of face for Robert as a virile macho king figure; here’s Margaery to consolingly tell him that he’s definitely all man in the sack (she can’t get enough, really), that the evil queen only did what she did because Lannisters are all evil and crazy, and Margaery’s love is true and pure and the proof of it is that she’s pregnant (which proves how virile he is) and of course as noble a king as Robert would never dishonor her instead of marrying her, and of course when he does daddy will step up and pay the bills just like the mean old Tywin used to do, and brave ser Loras who’s been like a son to him will help you crush the treasonous Lannisters like the manly man warrior he is. 

( I'm tired of arguing so I didn't notify you. )

Edited by Peach King

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