Illyrio's Game

[Frey family reunion]

An interesting debate, but I think both of you are missing the mark.  I don’t see any reason to disbelieve Illyrio when he tells Tyrion that as he’s entering into the twilight of his life, not everything he does is for personal gain anymore.  He’s being just vague enough to be truthful here.

Remember, Illyrio did something very socially unacceptable in Pentos.  He married a former pillow slave.  And he maintains a great deal of affection for her.  As he maintains a great deal of affection for Young Griff, who may very well be Serra’s son.

To now assume that Illyrio’s grand goal is to resume slavery in Pentos seems suspect.

Especially since it appears that he’s in charge of Young Griff’s development, and if we take Varys’ message to a dying Kevan seriously, Young Griff is an attempt to mold someone into a good just ruler.

[John Suburbs]

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Nobody said anything about Rego's footsteps - Illyrio and Varys might not even know that Rego Draz existed. The point is that his example shows that up-start cheesemongers have no issues involving themselves in Westerosi politics and/or serving on the Small Council of a Westerosi king. Apparently that kind of thing is or can be very lucrative even for them.

One assumes that the Draz clan greatly increased their fortune precisely because Rego was part of the government of the Seven Kingdoms.

But we have no indication that the Iron Bank is necessary for the stability of Braavosi politics. Perhaps the state and its military and navy is not dependent on their loans to the degree you imagine it to be?

And where is the indication that anybody is running on the Iron Bank? There are none. Instead, the bank throws another large loan on a doomed pretender who is likely going to fail. They would not do that if they didn't have money left. Stannis is going to need hard cash to hire sellswords or bribe lords in Westeros.

Yeah, but she is not cancelling the debt. She just stopped paying the installments for the time being, she never said the Iron Throne would not pay at all. Which means the whole thing is not even remotely that big of a deal you desperately try to make it. If it were then the Iron Bank would have to be as poor as to go defunct simply because some installments do not come in at the appointed time. And that's a ridiculous idea. If that were the case then they could not possibly afford to throw new money at Stannis who is in no shape right now - and perhaps for years to come - to pay either interest or principal.

No, what they are doing is to show the Westerosi that you don't mess with Don Corleone. You cross the Iron Bank at your peril. They are setting an example.

FaB made it clear that not even Jaehaerys I could risk the ire of the Iron Bank of Braavos.

It is also quite clear that the Iron Bank has certain ways to ensure their enemies all die. When pushed the Faceless Men should kill so many pretenders and heirs and claimants until one comes up who values his own life - and the lives of his family - more than the money he owes the Iron Bank.

Or not. At this point there is no indication the Iron Bank cares about any of that. And it is quite clear that all the merchants and traders in Westeros who are pressured by the Braavosi will return the money they owe them.

Claims Illyrio Mopatis. The Braavos stance on slavery is crystal clear. Chances are that their main bank does not invest in enterprises that are based on slavery, no matter what you think they would have to do.

They are literally living in a house of gold, as the Asshai'i believe - a huge rock full of gold they just have to get out of the rock. If a Lannister wants to make some money he can just go down in the basement with a pickax.

We don't need any Casterly Rock POVs to know that the Lannisters are as wealthy as they seem to be - Tyrion Lannister, Cersei Lannister (who is the Lady of Casterly Rock since AFfC), Jaime Lannister, and Kevan Lannister are more than enough.

What millions are you talking about? Robert was six million in debt, three owed to the Lannisters, roughly a million to the Faith (which the High Septon forgave in AFfC), and the rest to House Tyrell and, presumably, the Iron Bank.

It might be another million, but perhaps not even as much as that.

And that's just not all that much money.

OK, so there is no reason to think that just because one Pentoshi became MoC that another wants to do the same, especially given the first Pentoshi's example. Illyrio just doesn't look like the type to want to be a servant. He is not just a cheese-monger, he is a magistrate -- highly respected, even feared, in Pentosh, something Draz never achieved..

The Iron Bank is the largest, most powerful bank in the world, and it conducts most of the trade with other cities directly. How could it not be essential to the stability of Braavosi politics? It is literally the Federal Reserve Bank and Merchant Marine of Braavos rolled into one. Without it, and the enormous incomes it brings to the Braavosi treasury, Braavos has no way to pay its tax collectors, port officials, scribes, servants, and most importantly, its soldiers. And with the bank's reputation shot, the iron coin is worth the iron it is made of, nothing more.

Nobody is running on the bank yet because the time is not right. First, get rid of Stannis, then take the Iron Throne, then withdraw your own deposits and then send in your patsy to make the final withdraw that puts them over the edge.

They are not counting on Stannis to fail. They think this is the way to get their loans to the IB working again, but it could just be throwing good money after bad.

If it wasn't that big of a deal then the IB would not be backing rebel lords and calling in the debts to merchants in Westeros. The mere fact that they have taken these steps is proof that this is a big deal. The IB will not go defunct just because the crown stopped paying service on its loans. But it will go defunct if the money loaned to Stannis is gone, the money loaned to the crown is gone (because there is a new king who has no reason to honor those debts), the money loaned to traders all over the world is gone because the loss of the slave trade has stopped the international flow of goods and currency . . .

Vito Corleone was shot and almost killed. Even after he wasted the heads of the other families, Michael Corleone moved his entire organization out of NYC because the new drug lords were getting too powerful. He relocated to Las Vegas to run casinos. People messed with them, and they fled.

Jaeharys owed money to the Iron Bank and he paid it back. He did not have a proxy depositor and a scheme to run the bank dry. David defeated Goliath, and Illyrio is hardly David in this contest.

Yeah, the FM are a wild card in all of this. One wonders how dependent they are on the IB for financial support, however. If the bank fails, does the HoBaw fail with it? Interesting question, but I can't imagine a smart cookie like Illyrio would not have a plan to deal with the FM, even if it is not abundantly clear to the readers yet. In any event, if the IB can simply hire an FM to off an uncooperative regent, then why do they bother with the uncertainties of rebels and revolution?

Merchants and traders don't borrow from the Iron Bank just to put gold under their mattresses. They spend it loading their ships up with goods to be sold at profit at another port. The loaned money is gone, and if incomes at the other ports, most of whom deal in slaves, is down, or if the slaves have taken them over, then that is money that cannot be recovered not matter how many merchants are killed for non-payment. Maybe they can seize the cargos, but if there is a money squeeze going on, it will be too many goods chasing too little money, and they would have to sell it at a fraction of what it was worth when they were bought with the loaned money. No matter what, the IB loses. That's the way economics works.

The Braavosi stance on slavery is exactly this:

Quote

And because they had risked their lives in the name of freedom, the mothers and fathers of the new city vowed that no man, woman, or child in Braavos should ever be a slave, a thrall, or a bondsman. This is the First Law of Braavos, engraved in stone on the arch that spans the Long Canal. From that day to this, the Sealords of Braavos have opposed slavery in all its forms and have fought many a war against slaves and their allies.

Sounds like they would oppose dealing with slavers then, eh? Not so:

Quote

Thus was born the Iron Bank of Braavos, whose renown (or infamy, to here some tell it) now extends to every corner of the known world. Kings, princes, archons, triarchs and merchants beyond count travel from the ends of the earth to seek loans from the heavily guarded vaults of the Iron Bank.

The only archons and triarchs in the story are in Tyrosh and Volantis, respectively. Before that, they were Valyrians. All of them dealt in slaves and the Tyroshi are considered particularly ruthless at it. Now, of course, seeking a loan is not the same as getting one, but if the IB had a blanket rule against loaning to slavers, then they wouldn't even bother to travel all the way to hostile Braavos to seek one.

And as I said, they can try all they want to insulate themselves from the slave trade, but at the end of the day, the loss of the money made from slaves means less money to buy other goods, which ends up hitting the IB on the bottom line no matter how adamantly anti-slavery they are.

How on earth do you imagine that Asshai, half a world away from Westeros, knows the facts behind Lannister gold? People believe what they've been told, and the Lannisters have always been wealthy. But gold is a finite resource. Once it's gone, it's gone. Nobody knows the true state of Lannister finances other than Tywin, and even he might not be fully aware. The Iron Throne was said to be as wealthy as Midas when Littlefinger was running things and the crown's incomes were sky high. Turns out, it was a lie. And now they are in deep. I wouldn't count on the certainty of Lannister wealth until it is confirmed.

LF says Robert was six million in debt. Do you trust him? If so, there is a lovely townhome in Valyria I would love to sell you. The loans to the crown are a significant matter for the Iron Bank, otherwise they wouldn't be taking such extreme measures to collect them. And as I said, the IT is only one facet of the exposure they face by leveraging their wealth. It sure would be funny if House Lannister had borrowed its three million from the IB only to loan it to the crown.

 

[Lost Melnibonean]

On 9/10/2019 at 12:52 PM, Lord Varys said:

The case of Rego Draz definitely shows that a man like Illyrio Mopatis might want to be Master of Coin in King's Landing. The position is both lucrative and, one assumes, interesting for a man who likes challenges.

George really torched the idea that Varys and Illyrio need an ulterior motive to invest themselves in Westerosi affairs when he gave us a dude who did exactly that - and one who basically has a similar shady background as Varys and Illyrio - in FaB.

If Rego Draz didn't need an ulterior motive, neither do Varys or Illyrio.

Perhaps... but many of us have long argued that Illyrio never needed an ulterior motive, and that Casterly Rock and seat on the Small Council were sufficient payoff. I have always disagreed with that, and I still do. The tale of Rego Draz is distinguishable from that of Illyrio, since Illyrio was able to rise socially enough that he was able to wed the cousin of the Prince of Pentos and become a magister of the city. Such social statuses in Pentos were denied to Rego, but in Westeros, he was appointed Master of Coin due to merit rather than birth. 

[Lord Varys]

On 9/12/2019 at 11:08 PM, John Suburbs said:

OK, so there is no reason to think that just because one Pentoshi became MoC that another wants to do the same, especially given the first Pentoshi's example. Illyrio just doesn't look like the type to want to be a servant. He is not just a cheese-monger, he is a magistrate -- highly respected, even feared, in Pentosh, something Draz never achieved.

And he made himself a pariah when he married a whore. And his best buddy - the eunuch - seems to have about as shady a background as Draz (and he is also serving on the Small Council in KL).

On 9/12/2019 at 11:08 PM, John Suburbs said:

The Iron Bank is the largest, most powerful bank in the world, and it conducts most of the trade with other cities directly. How could it not be essential to the stability of Braavosi politics? It is literally the Federal Reserve Bank and Merchant Marine of Braavos rolled into one. Without it, and the enormous incomes it brings to the Braavosi treasury, Braavos has no way to pay its tax collectors, port officials, scribes, servants, and most importantly, its soldiers. And with the bank's reputation shot, the iron coin is worth the iron it is made of, nothing more.

I don't know any details about the byzantine structure of Braavosi politics. Do you? And as I said repeatedly - there is no reason to believe that the Iron Bank is in a bad position thanks to Cersei Lannister.

On 9/12/2019 at 11:08 PM, John Suburbs said:

Nobody is running on the bank yet because the time is not right. First, get rid of Stannis, then take the Iron Throne, then withdraw your own deposits and then send in your patsy to make the final withdraw that puts them over the edge.

If the bank were in trouble already there would already be a run.

On 9/12/2019 at 11:08 PM, John Suburbs said:

They are not counting on Stannis to fail. They think this is the way to get their loans to the IB working again, but it could just be throwing good money after bad.

I'm sure they have the means to ensure that Stannis succeeds - or at least that his rivals all die suddenly.

On 9/12/2019 at 11:08 PM, John Suburbs said:

If it wasn't that big of a deal then the IB would not be backing rebel lords and calling in the debts to merchants in Westeros. The mere fact that they have taken these steps is proof that this is a big deal. The IB will not go defunct just because the crown stopped paying service on its loans. But it will go defunct if the money loaned to Stannis is gone, the money loaned to the crown is gone (because there is a new king who has no reason to honor those debts), the money loaned to traders all over the world is gone because the loss of the slave trade has stopped the international flow of goods and currency . . .

I know that's your idea - but I don't buy that. You have nothing to back that up.

On 9/12/2019 at 11:08 PM, John Suburbs said:

Vito Corleone was shot and almost killed. Even after he wasted the heads of the other families, Michael Corleone moved his entire organization out of NYC because the new drug lords were getting too powerful. He relocated to Las Vegas to run casinos. People messed with them, and they fled.

That was an analogy about the way the Iron Bank does business - they are, essentially, the mafia - not a commentary on the content of the Godfather movies ;-).

On 9/12/2019 at 11:08 PM, John Suburbs said:

Jaeharys owed money to the Iron Bank and he paid it back. He did not have a proxy depositor and a scheme to run the bank dry. David defeated Goliath, and Illyrio is hardly David in this contest.

Illyrio doesn't have any motive to quarrel with the Iron Bank. In fact, there isn't even any reason to believe he gives a rat's ass about Pentos. He has told us he is going to join Aegon and the gang in KL. That means he cares about the Iron Throne not the Iron Bank.

On 9/12/2019 at 11:08 PM, John Suburbs said:

Yeah, the FM are a wild card in all of this. One wonders how dependent they are on the IB for financial support, however. If the bank fails, does the HoBaw fail with it? Interesting question, but I can't imagine a smart cookie like Illyrio would not have a plan to deal with the FM, even if it is not abundantly clear to the readers yet. In any event, if the IB can simply hire an FM to off an uncooperative regent, then why do they bother with the uncertainties of rebels and revolution?

The Iron Bank wants a guarantee that the man they put on the Iron Throne is going to pay back the loans. If they just killed Cersei then her successor(s) could just continue her policy - after all, they cannot really admit they were behind the seemingly natural death arranged by a Faceless Man.

On 9/12/2019 at 11:08 PM, John Suburbs said:

Merchants and traders don't borrow from the Iron Bank just to put gold under their mattresses. They spend it loading their ships up with goods to be sold at profit at another port. The loaned money is gone, and if incomes at the other ports, most of whom deal in slaves, is down, or if the slaves have taken them over, then that is money that cannot be recovered not matter how many merchants are killed for non-payment. Maybe they can seize the cargos, but if there is a money squeeze going on, it will be too many goods chasing too little money, and they would have to sell it at a fraction of what it was worth when they were bought with the loaned money. No matter what, the IB loses. That's the way economics works.

Well, you seem to be real expert in Martinworld economics.

On 9/12/2019 at 11:08 PM, John Suburbs said:

The only archons and triarchs in the story are in Tyrosh and Volantis, respectively. Before that, they were Valyrians. All of them dealt in slaves and the Tyroshi are considered particularly ruthless at it. Now, of course, seeking a loan is not the same as getting one, but if the IB had a blanket rule against loaning to slavers, then they wouldn't even bother to travel all the way to hostile Braavos to seek one.

It is not that difficult to see the difference between funding the slave trade and enterprises based on slavery and, perhaps, doing business with wealthy politicians whose business interests are not necessarily all invested in slavery business.

I mean, seriously, you pretending to know how great the role of slavery in Free Cities economics is is ridiculous. We don't know that - and we don't know how great the Iron Bank's losses are going to be in the end of the slave trade.

On 9/12/2019 at 11:08 PM, John Suburbs said:

And as I said, they can try all they want to insulate themselves from the slave trade, but at the end of the day, the loss of the money made from slaves means less money to buy other goods, which ends up hitting the IB on the bottom line no matter how adamantly anti-slavery they are.

Only if the profit from the slave trade is not going exlusively to the rich-as-hell slave traders. I mean, you do realize that the Slaver's Bay slave trade is actually a luxury slave trade, right? You go to Slaver's Bay to get elite slave soldiers, luxury bed slaves, elite pit fighters, etc. - if you want an average slave you can still buy that on the markets of the Free Cities. The Lysene are confirmed to breed their own slaves - and one assumes the Volantenes and the Myrmen and the Tyroshi do the same.

Certain rich people will be pissed - but then, internatinal trade is luxury trade in a medieval world. It is not going to affect the bulk of the population in the slightest.

And if the Iron Bank is also a bank for the common man - especially in Braavos itself - then its funds would not be affected by the slavery thing in the slightest.

On 9/12/2019 at 11:08 PM, John Suburbs said:

How on earth do you imagine that Asshai, half a world away from Westeros, knows the facts behind Lannister gold? People believe what they've been told, and the Lannisters have always been wealthy. But gold is a finite resource. Once it's gone, it's gone. Nobody knows the true state of Lannister finances other than Tywin, and even he might not be fully aware. The Iron Throne was said to be as wealthy as Midas when Littlefinger was running things and the crown's incomes were sky high. Turns out, it was a lie. And now they are in deep. I wouldn't count on the certainty of Lannister wealth until it is confirmed.

Who told you that only Tywin knows 'the true state' of Lannister finances? How do you know Cersei and Kevan and Jaime and Tyrion don't know anything about that?

Kevan was Tywin's closest confidant and Cersei had months to actually write letters to and receive answers from Tywin's maesters and stewards and clerks at Casterly Rock.

I know that the gold of Casterly Rock is a finite resource - but we have no reason to believe the mines beneath the Rock a dry. But even if they were dry, the Lannisters have invested their gold in many profitable enterprises.

Nobody ever said the Iron Throne was 'as wealthy as Midas' while Littlefinger was running things - it was correctly said that Littlefinger had greatly increased the incomes of the Crown.

On 9/12/2019 at 11:08 PM, John Suburbs said:

LF says Robert was six million in debt. Do you trust him? If so, there is a lovely townhome in Valyria I would love to sell you. The loans to the crown are a significant matter for the Iron Bank, otherwise they wouldn't be taking such extreme measures to collect them. And as I said, the IT is only one facet of the exposure they face by leveraging their wealth. It sure would be funny if House Lannister had borrowed its three million from the IB only to loan it to the crown.

Do you have any actual evidence aside from thinking that something would be funny to assume Littlefinger's claims about the debts of the Crown are incorrect?

And your argument about the Iron Bank's measures is circular - there is no reason to buy your interpretation that the measures the Iron Bank are 'extreme' or indicate anything. You just pretend it does - and then you find the text to be in accord with your assumption.

6 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Perhaps... but many of us have long argued that Illyrio never needed an ulterior motive, and that Casterly Rock and seat on the Small Council were sufficient payoff. I have always disagreed with that, and I still do. The tale of Rego Draz is distinguishable from that of Illyrio, since Illyrio was able to rise socially enough that he was able to wed the cousin of the Prince of Pentos and become a magister of the city. Such social statuses in Pentos were denied to Rego, but in Westeros, he was appointed Master of Coin due to merit rather than birth. 

The point being is that George now just created a guy who can be - with slight differences - seen as Varys & Illyrio 0.0.

Varys and Illyrio are a team - and while the fat man is somewhat respectable (until he allegedly married a whore) the eunuch definitely isn't. And he already sits on the Small Council.

[Dreadscythe95]

I am a big fan of the theory that his wife was a Blackfyre and that Young Griff is his son and this theory makes a lot of sense as well so I will go with that.

[Rufus Snow]

On 9/12/2019 at 10:08 PM, John Suburbs said:

But gold is a finite resource. Once it's gone, it's gone.

For now I'm sitting on the sidelines with popcorn, but this slapped me like a wet fish. Gold is finite, but it is not consumed. It's never 'gone', it's just in someone else's hands. Unless some eejit throws it into the sea.,, but do that enough and the trawler market will adapt

The big problem afflicting many of the analogies being drawn here is that we have come so far from a 'real money' economy that uses specie as a means of exchange and store of value. Modern folk have largely forgotten how it works. Many of the consequences (or lack of consequences) that the Iron Bank is threatened with in this thread might bother a bank in today's digital economy, with fractional reserves and fiat currencies. But when money means gold and silver, things run differently. We are not privy to the Iron Bank's accounts, so we have no knowledge whatsoever about the extent of their reserves under Braavos. Predicting ruin is pure speculation (pun intended )

My personal take is that the IB is NOT a financial institution. It is a power projector for Braavos, and wealth is just the weapon it uses. If there's any such thing as a 'Deep State' in Braavos, I suspect it meets where the tunnels from the Sealord's Palace, the Iron Bank and the House of Black and White converge...

[Lord Varys]

The core problem with the idea that there is not single shred of evidence that Illyrio Mopatis has issues with the Braavosi. In fact, if Dany's dragon eggs were originally the ones Elissa stole, then Illyrio Mopatis might actually be a bravo from Braavos who made a fortune in Pentos. After all, it is very unlikely the descendants of the Sealord who bought the eggs just sold them to some fat Pentoshi cheese monger, much less the state of Braavos (if it owned the eggs rather than the Sealord personally and subsequently his heirs).

[John Suburbs]

19 hours ago, Rufus Snow said:

For now I'm sitting on the sidelines with popcorn, but this slapped me like a wet fish. Gold is finite, but it is not consumed. It's never 'gone', it's just in someone else's hands. Unless some eejit throws it into the sea.,, but do that enough and the trawler market will adapt

The big problem afflicting many of the analogies being drawn here is that we have come so far from a 'real money' economy that uses specie as a means of exchange and store of value. Modern folk have largely forgotten how it works. Many of the consequences (or lack of consequences) that the Iron Bank is threatened with in this thread might bother a bank in today's digital economy, with fractional reserves and fiat currencies. But when money means gold and silver, things run differently. We are not privy to the Iron Bank's accounts, so we have no knowledge whatsoever about the extent of their reserves under Braavos. Predicting ruin is pure speculation (pun intended )

My personal take is that the IB is NOT a financial institution. It is a power projector for Braavos, and wealth is just the weapon it uses. If there's any such thing as a 'Deep State' in Braavos, I suspect it meets where the tunnels from the Sealord's Palace, the Iron Bank and the House of Black and White converge...

As you say, gold is eternal, but its possession is not. The Iron Bank takes in gold from depositors and loans it out to borrowers. So once the gold leaves it's hands it is gone, with the understanding that the borrower will pay it back over time with interest. If the borrower refuses to pay, then the IB sends an FM after him and the bank regains its loan from the borrower's wealth. However, if the borrower simply does not have the wealth to cover that loan, then the bank is out the money no matter how many members of the borrower's family are killed.

Put this in context to the soaif world as it is today. The income of hundreds, maybe thousands, of merchants, traders, ship captains and tradesmen have been hampered by the disruption of the slave trade. Slavers are no longer making any money in Slaver's bay, which means they do not have the money to buy silk, linen, wood, iron or anything else, and the ripple is felt throughout the entire world economy. Since much of this trade activity was financed with credit from the Iron Bank, and others, then they will take a hit on their balance sheets when the loan payments stop coming, and if these borrowers cannot make the money to repay their loans, then the IB takes the hit no matter how many assassins it sends out.

Couple this with the very good chance that fAegon will take the Iron Throne, and since he owes nothing to the Iron Bank for getting him there, he can declare the loans of the previous dynasty to be not his responsibility. Sure, the bank could try to assassinate him, but if Illyrio has any wits to him, he will get fAegon married right quick and the new king will be adopt the same policy under the regency run by Illyrio.

Meanwhile, Stannis has been defeated, so all of his loans are gone, never to be repaid, and the bank is even calling in loans to merchants and traders in Westeros, which are also unlikely to be repaid.

So all in all, it would seem that the IB is quite leveraged at this point, so depending on what its book-to-loan ratio is, it might only take a few key withdrawals to run the bank die so that it collapses, forever. No bank means no threat from the FM, a diminished Braavos that can no longer enforce the treaty, and Illyrio with his handpicked king, perhaps his own son, sitting the Iron Throne.

The only wild card at this point is Dany.

 

18 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The core problem with the idea that there is not single shred of evidence that Illyrio Mopatis has issues with the Braavosi. In fact, if Dany's dragon eggs were originally the ones Elissa stole, then Illyrio Mopatis might actually be a bravo from Braavos who made a fortune in Pentos. After all, it is very unlikely the descendants of the Sealord who bought the eggs just sold them to some fat Pentoshi cheese monger, much less the state of Braavos (if it owned the eggs rather than the Sealord personally and subsequently his heirs).

As I mentioned, the evidence is the history between Braavos and Pentos. The last peace treaty acted as if Pentos was utterly defeated when in fact it had just won a major victory. Few in Pentos would be happy with this, just as few in Germany were happy with the Treaty of Versailles when the fighting had not even touched German soil by the end of the war. So unless your idea of "evidence" is Illyrio standing up in a crowd and shouting "I hate Braavos" then you'll just have to wait, I guess.

We don't know where Illyrio got the eggs, and there is no "evidence" for what you are claiming here. He may very well have bought them for a fraction of their worth from the IB because their finances are in such bad shape.

[Lord Varys]

17 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

As I mentioned, the evidence is the history between Braavos and Pentos. The last peace treaty acted as if Pentos was utterly defeated when in fact it had just won a major victory. Few in Pentos would be happy with this, just as few in Germany were happy with the Treaty of Versailles when the fighting had not even touched German soil by the end of the war. So unless your idea of "evidence" is Illyrio standing up in a crowd and shouting "I hate Braavos" then you'll just have to wait, I guess.

We don't know where Illyrio got the eggs, and there is no "evidence" for what you are claiming here. He may very well have bought them for a fraction of their worth from the IB because their finances are in such bad shape.

Since there is no evidence that Illyrio Mopatis is even Pentoshi by birth - or cares much about Pentoshi patriotism or nationlism - you are the one who doesn't hold any cards.

The fact that the man seems to use a huge portion of his wealth to fund some silly bid for the Iron Throne (going so far to bribe a Volantene triarch) one really has no reason to assume that he cares much about the kind of politics the other magisters are dealing with - his Westerosi enterprise seems to be a lone wolf operation.

And, frankly, it is ridiculous to compare the last peace treaty between Pentos and Braavos to the Treaty of Versailles. The last war between Pentos and Braavos happened a hundred years ago, and nobody cares about 'revenge' and 'payback' this long after the event. The Treaty of Versailles continued to be an issue in the two decades after World War I.

We lost World War II over seventy years ago but very few people over here are dreaming about 'payback' for that - despite the fact that we lost significant portions of our territory (and all my grandparents their homes).

There is just no textual basis for this idea of yours - just as it the case with the other ;-).

[John Suburbs]

22 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Since there is no evidence that Illyrio Mopatis is even Pentoshi by birth - or cares much about Pentoshi patriotism or nationlism - you are the one who doesn't hold any cards.

The fact that the man seems to use a huge portion of his wealth to fund some silly bid for the Iron Throne (going so far to bribe a Volantene triarch) one really has no reason to assume that he cares much about the kind of politics the other magisters are dealing with - his Westerosi enterprise seems to be a lone wolf operation.

And, frankly, it is ridiculous to compare the last peace treaty between Pentos and Braavos to the Treaty of Versailles. The last war between Pentos and Braavos happened a hundred years ago, and nobody cares about 'revenge' and 'payback' this long after the event. The Treaty of Versailles continued to be an issue in the two decades after World War I.

We lost World War II over seventy years ago but very few people over here are dreaming about 'payback' for that - despite the fact that we lost significant portions of our territory (and all my grandparents their homes).

There is just no textual basis for this idea of yours - just as it the case with the other ;-).

Don't you think that "the fact that the man seems to use a huge portion of his wealth to fund some silly bid for the Iron Throne" is evidence that his real target is bigger than the Iron Throne? The effects of the peace treaty are still being felt in Pentos -- they remain demilitarized and shut out from the most lucrative trade in the world. Wouldn't it seem more likely that Illyrio is seeking to undo that situation in order to gain the autonomy needed to pursue wealth on his own terms rather than mount a silly bid for the Iron Throne?

As for evidence, if someone were to tell you at the end of Game that Renly was going to die at the hands of Stannis' red woman, you could dismiss that for lack of evidence too. But Martin has a way of pulling out these kinds of surprises and only in hindsight does the reader realize it all made sense from an earlier vantage point in the story. That's what good writing is: carefully layering the truth under seeming inconsequential facts. It keeps the plot interesting rather than a pedantic march to an overtly telegraphed ending.

[argonak]

5 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Don't you think that "the fact that the man seems to use a huge portion of his wealth to fund some silly bid for the Iron Throne" is evidence that his real target is bigger than the Iron Throne? The effects of the peace treaty are still being felt in Pentos -- they remain demilitarized and shut out from the most lucrative trade in the world. Wouldn't it seem more likely that Illyrio is seeking to undo that situation in order to gain the autonomy needed to pursue wealth on his own terms rather than mount a silly bid for the Iron Throne?

As for evidence, if someone were to tell you at the end of Game that Renly was going to die at the hands of Stannis' red woman, you could dismiss that for lack of evidence too. But Martin has a way of pulling out these kinds of surprises and only in hindsight does the reader realize it all made sense from an earlier vantage point in the story. That's what good writing is: carefully layering the truth under seeming inconsequential facts. It keeps the plot interesting rather than a pedantic march to an overtly telegraphed ending.

Tywin was willing to risk his entire family legacy on getting a grandson on the iron throne, and one that didnt even bear his name.  I don't think its unlikely that Illyrio would be willing to do the same for his actual son.  What you suggest is plausible, but I don't think there's any evidence for it right now.  We do have evidence of an emotional connection for Illyrio based on the behavior that Tyrion witnesses.

[Lord Varys]

On 9/20/2019 at 5:02 PM, John Suburbs said:

Don't you think that "the fact that the man seems to use a huge portion of his wealth to fund some silly bid for the Iron Throne" is evidence that his real target is bigger than the Iron Throne? The effects of the peace treaty are still being felt in Pentos -- they remain demilitarized and shut out from the most lucrative trade in the world. Wouldn't it seem more likely that Illyrio is seeking to undo that situation in order to gain the autonomy needed to pursue wealth on his own terms rather than mount a silly bid for the Iron Throne?

Braavos and the Iron Bank are a joke compared to the Iron Throne. Braavos is a great city, and the most wealthiest Free City of all, but it doesn't compare to the wealth and power that comes with controlling the Seven Kingdom of Westeros.

The very fact that you somehow seem to think the Iron Bank were somehow a target 'bigger than the Iron Throne' shows that you are way off here.

The books also don't give us any indication that the Pentoshi feel meaningful resentment over the last war with Braavos and the treaty. In fact, wealthy men like Illyrio Mopatis continue to keep slaves and also continue to involve themselves in the slave trade. He has no incentive whatsoever to cross the Braavosi.

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As for evidence, if someone were to tell you at the end of Game that Renly was going to die at the hands of Stannis' red woman, you could dismiss that for lack of evidence too. But Martin has a way of pulling out these kinds of surprises and only in hindsight does the reader realize it all made sense from an earlier vantage point in the story. That's what good writing is: carefully layering the truth under seeming inconsequential facts. It keeps the plot interesting rather than a pedantic march to an overtly telegraphed ending.

At end of AGoT we didn't know anything about Stannis' red woman - the only hint to Mel we get in that book is Tywin talking about reports claiming that Stannis is hiring shadowbinders from Asshai.

George is hinting at certain plot developments, yes, but those are all explicit and not implicit hints. We have no cases where essentially unconnected things stitched together on the basis of a presupposed conspiracy theory suddenly become a tapestry that makes sense.

We certainly get more information - and new things are introduced and revealed - as the story progresses, but if we look at the other revelations then Euron Greyjoy and Aegon didn't come out of nowhere. They were foreshadowed a long time ago, just as the true murderer of Jon Arryn was.

If Illyrio had any issue - and if the Iron Bank had financial problems in the wake of Cersei's refusals to continue to pay the installments - then there would have been hints in that direction both in Dany's and Tyrion's Pentos chapters as well as in Arya's Braavos chapters (and perhaps even in the ADwD chapters involving Tycho Nestoris).

Just as there would have been quite a few hints in the books at this point if the Lannisters had financial problems. George leads up to such things - he doesn't pull them out of his hat with no buildup. And the fact that the Braavosi - being anti-slavery - brought around the Pentoshi (their immediate neighbors) to sort of see things their way is neither suprising considering the power of Braavos nor buildup for the kind of conspiracy taspestry you try to paint here.

On 9/20/2019 at 10:33 PM, argonak said:

Tywin was willing to risk his entire family legacy on getting a grandson on the iron throne, and one that didnt even bear his name.  I don't think its unlikely that Illyrio would be willing to do the same for his actual son.  What you suggest is plausible, but I don't think there's any evidence for it right now.  We do have evidence of an emotional connection for Illyrio based on the behavior that Tyrion witnesses.

And as I said - we have no evidence whatsoever that Illyrio cares about the Braavosi one way or another, no hint that he gives a damn about that old treaty, no indication that he plans anything involving Braavos.

Instead, the amount of wealth and energy he pumped into the Aegon enterprise might actually be a sign that his vast wealth is shrinking and a failure of the Aegon game is going to leave him as an impoverished, shrunken man. Illyrio is using his wealth to make Aegon king, he does not want to make Aegon to increase his wealth - he would likely not complain if he made a profit that way, but he is no longer a young man and he should expect to die in the next decade or so, considering his enormous size and the lack of good medicine in this world.

[John Suburbs]

On 9/20/2019 at 4:33 PM, argonak said:

Tywin was willing to risk his entire family legacy on getting a grandson on the iron throne, and one that didnt even bear his name.  I don't think its unlikely that Illyrio would be willing to do the same for his actual son.  What you suggest is plausible, but I don't think there's any evidence for it right now.  We do have evidence of an emotional connection for Illyrio based on the behavior that Tyrion witnesses.

Sorry, but in what way did Tywin risk his entire family legacy getting a grandson on the Iron Throne? It seems to me that he took the least riskiest path right from the start.

[argonak]

27 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Sorry, but in what way did Tywin risk his entire family legacy getting a grandson on the Iron Throne? It seems to me that he took the least riskiest path right from the start.

I'm talking about Tywin invading the riverlands, essentailly starting a war against hte northern alliance which he had no way to know for sure was broken.  Had Lisa supported her family the way anyone would have expected, Tywin would have gotten his butt kicked back to casterly rock as soon as Robb and the Vale lords synced up.  Tywin played aggressive and it paid off, but it was a long shot from the start.  And thats assuming that the baratheon brothers don't rejoin the alliance somehow.  

Additionally, Tywin has been supporting the crown with huge sums of money for years.  All just to get Joffrey on the throne some day.

[Loose Bolt]

23 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Sorry, but in what way did Tywin risk his entire family legacy getting a grandson on the Iron Throne? It seems to me that he took the least riskiest path right from the start.

He invaded Riverlands with almost 40 k men. Or there should not have been many men left to defend Westerlands. So if either IB or Renly had invaded WL Tywin would have had huge problems with his bannermen.

[Rufus Snow]

I doubt Illyrio has the wherewithal to tangle with the Iron Bank. They're not just the biggest, they're bigger than all the rest... combined.

 

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A Dance with Dragons - Jon IX

........ the Iron Bank of Braavos had a fearsome reputation when collecting debts. Each of the Nine Free Cities had its bank, and some had more than one, fighting over every coin like dogs over a bone, but the Iron Bank was richer and more powerful than all the rest combined. When princes defaulted on their debts to lesser banks, ruined bankers sold their wives and children into slavery and opened their own veins. When princes failed to repay the Iron Bank, new princes sprang up from nowhere and took their thrones.

 

[John Suburbs]

23 hours ago, argonak said:

I'm talking about Tywin invading the riverlands, essentailly starting a war against hte northern alliance which he had no way to know for sure was broken.  Had Lisa supported her family the way anyone would have expected, Tywin would have gotten his butt kicked back to casterly rock as soon as Robb and the Vale lords synced up.  Tywin played aggressive and it paid off, but it was a long shot from the start.  And thats assuming that the baratheon brothers don't rejoin the alliance somehow.  

Additionally, Tywin has been supporting the crown with huge sums of money for years.  All just to get Joffrey on the throne some day.

Well, I don't see how that risks his family legacy. At worst he would have been sent back to Casterly Rock a defeated lord, but his daughter would still be queen, his son still in the KG and his grandson still prince regent. And ultimately, it would have came out that Tyrion was not guilty of the crimes he was accused of, putting egg on the faces of the Starks who acted rashly to begin the whole thing. His legacy would have been fine.

An even greater risk to his legacy would have been to do nothing, signaling to the realm that the Lannister lion has no claws.

Tywin fully expects to get the money paid back with interest. He may be taking a risk here, but not intentionally. And if this debt does indeed represent only a fraction of Lannister wealth, then there is no risk to his legacy.

 

[John Suburbs]

23 hours ago, Loose Bolt said:

He invaded Riverlands with almost 40 k men. Or there should not have been many men left to defend Westerlands. So if either IB or Renly had invaded WL Tywin would have had huge problems with his bannermen.

OK, he might have lost the war. In that case, he bends the knee and is sent back to CR a defeated lord. But his daughter is still queen, his son still in the KG and his grandson still prince regent. In what way is his legacy at risk?

[Rufus Snow]

Re-reading the epilogue of ADwD has convinced me that the Iron Throne's debts to the Iron Bank are not that big of an issue. The issue is the IB cannot let it be seen that debtors can stiff them. To paraphrase Jaime, 'If I warned you not to default, and you default, what do you think is going to happen?' Yep, you get a big mouhful of golden hand.

LF's claim is that the IT has 6 million in debt, but of this we know 3 million is owed to House Lannister, and 1 million to the Faith (round figures...). He cannot hide either of those figures from House Lannister. The remaining 2 million puts a limit to the Iron Bank loans, and they have their own accounts, so LF cannot get away with concealing that either. Even if there is more debt owed to the IB that LF has somehow prevented the IB communicating to anyone else so far, by the time Noho Dimittis is stomping around KL and getting coughed at six times, whatever it is that LF supposedly concealed is bound to have been revealed. And if there are other creditors that LF has covered up, well they aren't the Iron Bank, are they?

Therefore, by the time of the epilogue to ADwD, Kevan will have a true picture of the Throne's commitments to the Bank. The Bank will have made very sure of that. But is Kevan bricking it? No, he's a bit pissed off at Cersei for antagonising the Bank, but he is not in a panic about it.

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A Dance with Dragons - Epilogue

"Sellswords fight for coin," declared Grand Maester Pycelle. "With enough gold, we might persuade the Golden Company to hand over Lord Connington and the pretender."

"Aye, if we had gold," Ser Harys Swyft said. "Alas, my lords, our vaults contain only rats and roaches. I have written again to the Myrish bankers. If they will agree to make good the crown's debt to the Braavosi and extend us a new loan, mayhaps we will not have to raise the taxes. Elsewise—"

"The magisters of Pentos have been known to lend money as well," said Ser Kevan. "Try them." The Pentoshi were even less like to be of help than the Myrish money changers, but the effort must be made. Unless a new source of coin could be found, or the Iron Bank persuaded to relent, he would have no choice but to pay the crown's debts with Lannister gold. He dare not resort to new taxes, not with the Seven Kingdoms crawling with rebellion. Half the lords in the realm could not tell taxation from tyranny, and would bolt to the nearest usurper in a heartbeat if it would save them a clipped copper. "If that fails, you may well need to go to Braavos, to treat with the Iron Bank yourself."

Let's examine these options: Kevan could pay the debts with Lannister gold - he doesn't reflect that that would be impossible, even difficult, just that it might be necessary. He's not happy about it, but it seems to present him no problems other than a touch of unhappiness.

Swyft's suggestion is what shows the IB is not really in deep with the IT loans. We know from upthread that the IB is larger than all the other banks in the Free Cities combined. On average, that means they are ten times the size of any other, such as the Myrish Bank that Swyft mentions. Yet Ser Harys thinks the Crown could borrow enough from that bank to both cover the IT debts to the IB, AND hire/bribe the Golden Company. At best the Myrish Bank could cover one-tenth of the Iron Bank's assets, yet some of the sum Swyft wants would be to go to a new loan. That puts a ceiling to the IB loan to the Crown of at most one-twentieth of its assets.

BUT the Myrish bank is unlikely to be sitting on its hands with an empty loan book and full coffers just waiting to loan everything it has to the Iron Throne, so this new loan would be a fraction of the Myrish Bank's capacity. Which makes the IB loan a fraction of one-twentieth of its own capacity. AT MOST, the IB exposure to the IT is a few percent of its assets, and that would be by assuming that the Myrish Bank would loan its entire stash to a single customer - which no bank wanting to stay in business would ever do.

On balance, I think the sum owed by the Crown is quite insignificant. What matters to the IB is the reputational damage that would come from letting the Crown get away with defaulting. They want to make the point that would hurt the defaulter more than it hurts the Iron Bank. In short, a big mouthful of golden fist.

[Loose Bolt]

3 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

OK, he might have lost the war. In that case, he bends the knee and is sent back to CR a defeated lord. But his daughter is still queen, his son still in the KG and his grandson still prince regent. In what way is his legacy at risk?

If Tywin had lost the war he, Cercei, Jaime and his grandsons would have died. Myrcella might have survived as a trophy. Or I assume that victorious Renly or Stannis would have hunted all of them down to stop possible rebellions.

Another thing is that CR and Westerlands would have been huge lure for somebody. So a new king could have tried to buy support by promising those to somebody else. If those lands had already been occupied by forces loyal to new management chances of Tywin getting his old lands back would have been minimal.