Illyrio's Game

[FictionIsntReal]

17 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

There is still a chance that Illyrio himself - and/or Varys - have Blackfyre or Targaryen blood, but the idea Serra has is pretty unlikely in light of the fact that her function would have been limited to produce a child with the correct gender and looks to play the role of Rhaegar's son. If Illyrio had a Blackfyre descendant as wife then it would be really awfully convenient if she produced a boy with the right age and the right looks at (roughly) the right time. That's not the kind of story George is going to tell, in my opinion. Especially since there is actually no narrative reason why Serra must be a Blackfyre descendant.

And, in fact, if only Varys were the Blackfyre/Targaryen descendant then things could still work. Illyrio would then just be his best buddy, providing the funds and the semen Varys himself no longer had. Yet Varys' Blackfyre/Targaryen background should still be enough to enable him to secure the allegiance of the Golden Company in a contract written in blood. He would be a dynastic dead end, of course, but he himself is not dead yet.

And the only thing you can do if you lack the balls to father a child yourself is to adopt a child or to raise some other child as your own.

To me, Varys being a Blackfyre presents some of the same problems as Serra. If there are Blackfyre loyalists keeping track of his bloodline, why did they permit him to be enslaved and castrated? And after going through all that, how would he convince anyone he was a Blackfyre?

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Gregor being Gregor would be odd fifteen years after Tywin learned his lesson with Gregor during the Sack, no? I mean, do you assume Tywin failed to give Gregor explicit orders a second time? How stupid would he be to do that?

Oh, I think Tywin definitely ordered Gregor to capture Ned Stark. It was Ned's wife who seized Tyrion, so that's who he wanted leverage over. Robert would presumably also take care that his best friend/Hand was returned safely. But Beric Dondarrion isn't Ned Stark, so he'd just be "some dead man" to Gregor.

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And frankly, if Oberyn did not lie or invent things when he talked about his mother's role in the arrangement of the Elia-Rhaegar match to spite Tywin then chances are pretty high that Tywin lied to Tyrion and actually gave explicit orders to Gregor to rape and kill Elia Martell - it would have been punishment for the presumptions of the Princess of Dorne.

Gregor rapes and kills because he feels like it, I definitely don't think he requires and orders to do the former. I also think that Elia's death was an utterly predictable result of having men kill her children in front of her. She was going to intervene, and the simplest response is to kill her as well unless you had some reason not to. On the other hand, if Elia were separated from her children, I don't know if Tywin actually needed her hunted down. I don't think he was lying to Tyrion at that point, he was abandoning all the cover stories he wanted to give the Martells to explain to Tyrion why he ordered the murders.

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Sandor speculates Gregor killed Ser Hugh out of spite - because he didn't fasten his gorget properly. But that's by no means clear. I agree that Sandor is right and Gregor killed Hugh intentionally, but this doesn't mean Gregor wasn't under orders from Cersei to do so. Cersei knew she didn't poison Jon Arryn, but she also knew that Ned investigated his death (from Pycelle) and was reading the same book about noble genealogy that helped Stannis and Jon Arryn make their case about the parentage of her children. We also know that Cersei suspected that Lysa Arryn learned about the twincest from her late husband.

In light of Cersei's later paranoia it is not unlikely at all that she also suspected that Ser Hugh - as Jon's squire - may have learned something about his master's suspicions and his investigations.

Meaning Cersei actually has a pretty good motive to want to see Ser Hugh dead - especially if she had learned that Ned was questioning the members of Jon's household that had remained in KL.

Sandor certainly knows his brother pretty well - but he also has a very low opinion on him. Arya later gives a more nuanced picture of Gregor - he is not the worst guy in his own band, and only very dangerous when his headaches and mood swings cause him to snap into amok mode. In that sense I'm not so sure that Gregor Clegane would just kill some guy he rides against in a tourney for no reason at all. I could be wrong, of course.

In a So Spake Martin on precisely this question, he said:

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At the end of A Storm of Swords we learned that Jon Arryn was poisoned by Lysa at the instigation of Littlefinger, but who ordered the death of Ser Hugh of the Vale? Cersei? Littlefinger?

It could very well have been either of the two, that's for you to decide. But, it could also just have been a Gregor thing. He's a murderous brute, and really needs no reason to kill someone.

 

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But then - chances are not that bad that Tywin actually gave command to kill all the people in a royal party but Ned or Robert to prevent them from escaping and confirming that Gregor Clegane really was the guy doing the raiding.

Agreed.

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My overall point, though, still is that using as blunt an instrument as Gregor in this entire enterprise certainly increased the chance that Gregor Clegane would kill somebody important. And Tywin is not stupid enough to not realize this - which makes it very likely he did not care about such an escalation.

I mean, if Ned had fulfilled Loras' request and sent him to arrest Gregor Clegane we can be pretty sure Gregor would have killed due to the hatred he felt for the guy - and this, in turn, would have brought down the unrelenting hatred of House Tyrell on the Lannisters considering the fact that Loras Tyrell is Mace Tyrell's favorite son.

Since Loras wasn't actually sent, we can't actually know what would have happened. Race for the Iron Throne did explore some interesting counterfactuals while covering that chapter though.

[John Suburbs]

On 9/27/2019 at 10:50 AM, Lord Varys said:

One wonders why he killed Beric Dondarrion. He was a lord, too, and would have given good ransom. He was a bannermen of Storm's End, and his death certainly could have angered Robert Baratheon, his old liege.

That's factually wrong. Tywin counted on Ned being the Hand and being the guy who came to hunt him down. He knew Ned was the Hand again when he started his raids. Ned resigned, went into the city at the same day, broke his leg, and was reappointed Hand on the very next day.

We also do know Robert was informed about Ned's ruling on the raid issue on his hunt. He did not condemn this ruling, nor did he side with Tywin. If he had not died and returned to the castle he would have likely teamed up with Ned to deal with the Lannister crisis - even if there had been no news about the twincest.

That's factually wrong, too. Cersei makes it clear that Robert wouldn't have dared something like that while Jaime was still around. The immediate cause is Cersei's talk, but it takes place after Ned's injury, and it is quite clear that Robert's own issues with Ned over the Dany assassination thing are a thing of the past now that Ned was nearly killed by Jaime.

Ned as Hand of the King, speaking with the King's Voice, identified and condemned Gregor Clegane as the culprit in those raids. He was attainted and condemned to death. To keep the King's Peace Tywin would have to distance from him and hand him and his men over to the king and his people - which he didn't do. And Gregor's men would have told Ned and Robert on whose orders they had been acting.

Tywin was trying to play things so (most of) the blame wasn't on him but that didn't work. Or rather: Wouldn't have worked if Robert had lived. Ned would have seen to that.

Meh, Tywin knows Ned was hand again, or did he not know he had resigned. It makes no matter. RObert does not just blindly side with Ned, or else there would be no rift over the Targeryen girl. Ergo, there is no reason to think he will blindly side with Ned over this matter, particularly when it comes out that Tyrion was taken on false pretenses and Ned refused a direct command to release him. So Tywin is not taking a huge risk here by sending his men into the Riverlands under cover because he is not breaking the king's peace.

We also know Robar Royce was sent to bring word to Robert of "what was said and done here." We don't know if Robert got that message before he was injured, or what his response was or would have been. And as even Ned notes, Robert is not certain to side against the Lannisters in all of this:

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Tywin Lannister was as much fox as lion. If indeed he'd sent Gregor to burn and pillage -- and Ned did not doubt that he had -- he'd taken care to see that they rode under cover of night, without banners, in the guise of common a brigand. Should Riverrun strike back, Cersei and her father would insist it had been the Tullys who broke the king's peace, not the Lannisters. The gods only knew what Robert would believe.

Also recall what happened when Ned asked leave to bring Jaime back to King's Landing:

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"I am told the Kingslayer has fled the city. Give me leave to bring him back to justice."

The king swirled the wine in his cup, brooding. He took a swallow. "No," he said. "I want no more of this. Jaime slew three of your men, and you five of his. Now it ends."

So the way Tywin is playing this, it is far from certain that Robert would come back from the hunt, take the field and utterly destroy Tywin Lannister.

Robert has dared to smack Cersei even when Jaime is around, just not in the face:

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Ned touched her cheek gently. "Has he done this before?"

"Once or twice." She shied away from his hand. "Never on the face before. Jaime would have killed him, even if it meant his own life."

So the beatings did not start with that scene in Ned's bedroom. And sorry, there is no way you can argue that that slap was in retribution for Ned's leg:

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Robert's face was dark with anger. "How many times must I tell you to hold your tongue, woman?"

Cersei's face was a study in contempt. "What a jape the gods have made of us two," she said. "By all rights, you ought to be in skirts and me in mail."

Purple with rage, the king lashed out, a vicious backhand blow to the side of the head.

It was a direct response to Cersei's attack on Robert's manhood, not the fact that her brother injured his friend.

Who knows what Tywin would have done with Gregor had Robert lived. Most likely he would have turned him over, and Gregor would beat the rap by demanding a TbC. Robert died, though, Joffrey became king, Ned was the traitor, and only then did Tywin begin open warfare. Why would Gregor's men know what orders Tywin issued? Tywin gives orders to Gregor, not Polliver.

Once again, Tywin played it exactly right: maximum pressure in defense of House Lannister with minimal risk to himself, his family or his house.

[Lord Varys]

On 9/29/2019 at 6:10 PM, FictionIsntReal said:

To me, Varys being a Blackfyre presents some of the same problems as Serra. If there are Blackfyre loyalists keeping track of his bloodline, why did they permit him to be enslaved and castrated? And after going through all that, how would he convince anyone he was a Blackfyre?

Oh, I don't think Varys would be a legitimate Blackfyre or Targaryen descendant. He would be a bastard, and likely one that was never acknowledged by his father.

But considering how many children Daemon Blackfyre had (at least nine) chances are not that bad that some of his grandchildren and great-grandchildren lost track of each other, especially to such daughters who were married to obscure men in distant cities (or whose husbands eventually took them away and cut them from their kin).

On 9/29/2019 at 6:10 PM, FictionIsntReal said:

Gregor rapes and kills because he feels like it, I definitely don't think he requires and orders to do the former. I also think that Elia's death was an utterly predictable result of having men kill her children in front of her. She was going to intervene, and the simplest response is to kill her as well unless you had some reason not to. On the other hand, if Elia were separated from her children, I don't know if Tywin actually needed her hunted down. I don't think he was lying to Tyrion at that point, he was abandoning all the cover stories he wanted to give the Martells to explain to Tyrion why he ordered the murders.

In a So Spake Martin on precisely this question, he said:

I'm not so sure about Elia there. Gregor took Aegon from her, killed him, and only then raped and killed Elia. There was no reason to do the latter. He could have knocked her unconscious or simply have his men take her into custody.

Tywin could have told the truth ... or not. But my point is that Tywin knew since the Sack what Gregor was and thus one should assume he knew what the man would do to whoever tried to arrest and execute him.

This makes it somewhat odd to assume he did not expect him to deal with Beric and his men the way he did.

On 9/29/2019 at 6:10 PM, FictionIsntReal said:

Since Loras wasn't actually sent, we can't actually know what would have happened. Race for the Iron Throne did explore some interesting counterfactuals while covering that chapter though.

Sure, but we can say that a Joffrey-Margaery marriage would have never happened in the wake of this. In fact, it might be that Renly and Ned had teamed up and later (assuming Renly eventually dies or not claims the throne himself) Margaery ends up marrying Robb Stark rather than Joffrey.

Because Mace would definitely try to reach out to and ally with Lannister enemies in such a scenario.

6 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Meh, Tywin knows Ned was hand again, or did he not know he had resigned. It makes no matter. RObert does not just blindly side with Ned, or else there would be no rift over the Targeryen girl. Ergo, there is no reason to think he will blindly side with Ned over this matter, particularly when it comes out that Tyrion was taken on false pretenses and Ned refused a direct command to release him. So Tywin is not taking a huge risk here by sending his men into the Riverlands under cover because he is not breaking the king's peace.

Robert does not blindly side with Ned, but he will eventually side with Ned. Ned himself does not know how much influence he wields over Robert. We and Ned learn that only on Robert's deathbed.

6 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

We also know Robar Royce was sent to bring word to Robert of "what was said and done here." We don't know if Robert got that message before he was injured, or what his response was or would have been. And as even Ned notes, Robert is not certain to side against the Lannisters in all of this:

Robar Royce found Robert, he himself says as much. Chances are that it happened before the injury because the strongwine plan would have only been set into motion after Cersei herself - after her confrontation with Ned - sent an envoy to Lancel to execute that plan.

6 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Also recall what happened when Ned asked leave to bring Jaime back to King's Landing.

That's just Ned's opinion. Ned's own take on his relationship is not accurate. We know from the Cersei-Jaime conversation Bran overhears that Cersei thinks Robert will listen to him. Ned is not as confident as she is because of his reaction in the Mycah incident and, more importantly, because of the constant poison Littlefinger pours into Ned's ear. Littlefinger constantly urges Ned to count Robert among the people he should not trust, and Ned himself does not know whether Robert was involved in or had knowledge of the attempt(s) on Bran or the murder of Jon Arryn.

The Targaryen issue is the one thing Robert won't see reason - which caused a rift between them in the past - but even there we see that Ned really cannot defy Robert to the degree that they become enemies. He is quickly restored Hand after they exchange insults in the council chamber, no?

6 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

So the way Tywin is playing this, it is far from certain that Robert would come back from the hunt, take the field and utterly destroy Tywin Lannister.

I don't think he would get all that quickly, either. But the more the war escalates the angrier Robert would become. And with Ned being there it is clear whose side he would take in the end. Especially if he had started to finally explain to Robert why Cat had arrested Tyrion. Even if had not figured out the twincest - the attempt on Bran, the dagger, and Lysa's letter certainly would have given Robert something to chew on.

Robert loved both Ned and Jon, and if Ned had pushed him to consider the fact that Cersei/the Lannisters murdered Jon then this wouldn't have reflected well on them.

6 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Robert has dared to smack Cersei even when Jaime is around, just not in the face:

So the beatings did not start with that scene in Ned's bedroom. And sorry, there is no way you can argue that that slap was in retribution for Ned's leg:

It was a direct response to Cersei's attack on Robert's manhood, not the fact that her brother injured his friend.

Oh, yeah, I forgot that, but I doubt that Robert ever gave visible bruises on other body parts before - Jaime would have seen those, and he would have reacted accordingly.

I know what triggered the beating, but the setting still is that Robert and Cersei are visiting Robert's best friend after Cersei's brother had nearly killed him. They are all angry because of what had transpired, and this influences all their actions.

6 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Who knows what Tywin would have done with Gregor had Robert lived. Most likely he would have turned him over, and Gregor would beat the rap by demanding a TbC. Robert died, though, Joffrey became king, Ned was the traitor, and only then did Tywin begin open warfare. Why would Gregor's men know what orders Tywin issued? Tywin gives orders to Gregor, not Polliver.

Gregor Clegane was already condemned. He was a dead man walking. The king had spoken (through Ned), there wouldn't have been a trial-by-combat. You get that when you show up for a trial, but Gregor's trial was over when Ned condemned him to death.

We don't know whether only Gregor knew about his orders - chances are not that bad that his men knew (either from Gregor himself or by being present when Lannister envoys/representatives came to his keep) or at least correctly guessed what was going on.

The Lannisters were preparing for war before Robert died. And whether Jaime and Tywin only marched against the Riverlords after they learned about Robert's death is, at this point, not clear. Might be that this was the case, but Tywin clearly was prepared to either throw back a Riverlord invasion of the West in retalitiation to Gregor's raids or to invade the Riverlands himself the way he did.

6 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Once again, Tywin played it exactly right: maximum pressure in defense of House Lannister with minimal risk to himself, his family or his house.

The risk was pretty high. He tried to downplay it, but since he was not even remotely controlling all the unknowns in this equation (Cersei's hold over Robert, Ned's hold over Robert, Cat's determination to kill Tyrion, etc.).

And one can ask whether invading the Riverlands after Robert's death was a smart idea. Tywin knew/expected Stannis and Renly would challenge Joffrey's claim. Had he had time to think after Robert's death one should assume he would have tried to prevent the hostilities with the Starks and the Tullys to have the time to deal with Robert's brothers.

But that's not what happened. I mean, once Cersei had Ned they could have tried to exchange him for Tyrion to make a peace.

[John Suburbs]

16 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Robert does not blindly side with Ned, but he will eventually side with Ned. Ned himself does not know how much influence he wields over Robert. We and Ned learn that only on Robert's deathbed.

Robar Royce found Robert, he himself says as much. Chances are that it happened before the injury because the strongwine plan would have only been set into motion after Cersei herself - after her confrontation with Ned - sent an envoy to Lancel to execute that plan.

That's just Ned's opinion. Ned's own take on his relationship is not accurate. We know from the Cersei-Jaime conversation Bran overhears that Cersei thinks Robert will listen to him. Ned is not as confident as she is because of his reaction in the Mycah incident and, more importantly, because of the constant poison Littlefinger pours into Ned's ear. Littlefinger constantly urges Ned to count Robert among the people he should not trust, and Ned himself does not know whether Robert was involved in or had knowledge of the attempt(s) on Bran or the murder of Jon Arryn.

The Targaryen issue is the one thing Robert won't see reason - which caused a rift between them in the past - but even there we see that Ned really cannot defy Robert to the degree that they become enemies. He is quickly restored Hand after they exchange insults in the council chamber, no?

I don't think he would get all that quickly, either. But the more the war escalates the angrier Robert would become. And with Ned being there it is clear whose side he would take in the end. Especially if he had started to finally explain to Robert why Cat had arrested Tyrion. Even if had not figured out the twincest - the attempt on Bran, the dagger, and Lysa's letter certainly would have given Robert something to chew on.

Robert loved both Ned and Jon, and if Ned had pushed him to consider the fact that Cersei/the Lannisters murdered Jon then this wouldn't have reflected well on them.

Oh, yeah, I forgot that, but I doubt that Robert ever gave visible bruises on other body parts before - Jaime would have seen those, and he would have reacted accordingly.

I know what triggered the beating, but the setting still is that Robert and Cersei are visiting Robert's best friend after Cersei's brother had nearly killed him. They are all angry because of what had transpired, and this influences all their actions.

Gregor Clegane was already condemned. He was a dead man walking. The king had spoken (through Ned), there wouldn't have been a trial-by-combat. You get that when you show up for a trial, but Gregor's trial was over when Ned condemned him to death.

We don't know whether only Gregor knew about his orders - chances are not that bad that his men knew (either from Gregor himself or by being present when Lannister envoys/representatives came to his keep) or at least correctly guessed what was going on.

The Lannisters were preparing for war before Robert died. And whether Jaime and Tywin only marched against the Riverlords after they learned about Robert's death is, at this point, not clear. Might be that this was the case, but Tywin clearly was prepared to either throw back a Riverlord invasion of the West in retalitiation to Gregor's raids or to invade the Riverlands himself the way he did.

The risk was pretty high. He tried to downplay it, but since he was not even remotely controlling all the unknowns in this equation (Cersei's hold over Robert, Ned's hold over Robert, Cat's determination to kill Tyrion, etc.).

And one can ask whether invading the Riverlands after Robert's death was a smart idea. Tywin knew/expected Stannis and Renly would challenge Joffrey's claim. Had he had time to think after Robert's death one should assume he would have tried to prevent the hostilities with the Starks and the Tullys to have the time to deal with Robert's brothers.

But that's not what happened. I mean, once Cersei had Ned they could have tried to exchange him for Tyrion to make a peace.

OK, so there is no reason for Tywin to conclude that Robert will march on him just because his friend Ned says that's the thing to do. If we look at history, in fact, there is little reason to think he would. Robert rejected Ned's demand that Tywin be held accountable for the Targ babes, rejected his call to send Jaime to the Wall, rejected his call to name Jaime as Warden of the East, rejected his call to bring Jaime back to justice . . . In every instance that we know of, Robert has sided with the Lannisters, against Ned.

I don't recall Robar saying he brought the message to Robert, but I'll take you word for it. But this is still beside the point. Beric is being sent to bring just to Gregor, not Tywin. Tywin still has ample ways to interfere with this mission without bluntly impeding it, and he can still appeal to Robert that Gregor was convicted in absentia, without given the opportunity to defend himself or demand a TbC. So none of this is putting Tywin, or his legacy, at any risk.

Um, no, that is not just Ned's opinion. I gave you the quote. Ned asks leave to bring Jaime back and Robert says "no." That's not an opinion, that is a fact. It is exactly what happened. But now that you mention it, Lady was yet another example of Ned siding with Lannisters over Ned.

Yes, they always make up, until the next rift. And Ned was all set to return to Winterfell if LF had not brought him to that last brothel. So all of this evidence simply points up the fallacy of what you are saying: there was absolutely no reason why Tywin should think that his actions up until Robert's death would bring the wrath of the Iron Throne down on his head to destroy him, his family or his legacy.

The war would not have escalated if Robert had lived. He already commanded Tyrion's release. If Ned continued to defy him on that then it would be Ned who has to worry, not Tywin. Once that is done, and the lie that spurred Cat to take Tyrion in the first place is exposed, it will be the Starks who look the fools (and Littlefinger the villain), not the Lannisters. The only way this goes bad for Tywin is if he jumps the gun and openly attacks the Riverlands while Robert is still hale and hearty -- and Tywin is simply not that stupid.

Ned has no proof of anything, just a lot of speculation. Even Ned's own children look more Tully than Stark.

Despite that fact that Ned lays wounded by Jaime's command, Robert does not strike Cersei until she mouths off to Robert. So there is no reason to suggest that the beating was in retribution for Jaime's actions when it was clearly done in a pique of anger because she got under his skin with her comment impugning his manhood. So the whole notion that Robert started beating Cersei because the Lannisters were attacking his best friend is completely false, as is the extended argument that Robert would go to war to utterly destroy House Lannister just because he always sides with Ned. The text makes it abundantly clear that this is not the case, over and over again.

Yes, the "trial" was over -- a trial in which no one who saw these actions called Gregor by name, Gregor himself was offered no opportunity to speak a word in his defense, and he was condemned without being afforded his legal right, as an anointed knight, to be judged by the gods. Not only is this a flagrant violation of even the rudimentary due process that exists in the 7K, but it is a violation of Ned's personal code of conduct that if you are not willing to look a condemned man in the eye and hear what he has to say, then he probably does not deserve to die. There is no way Robert would let this ruling stand, and no way the rest of the realm would not call him a tyrant if he did.

Gregor's men are not going to be present when Tywin gives him these orders. Again, Tywin is not that stupid. And Gregor's men are not going to risk the wrath of Gregor or Tywin by throwing either of them under the bus. They would have nothing to gain by doing this and everything to lose because they would be admitting that they were willing participants in these crimes. Sorry, but this is a non-argument.

OK, so Tywin was preparing for war. His son was unjustly kidnapped and he took steps to preserve the honor of his house. Any other lord would have done the same. He did not invade, however, so he did not break the king's peace. And I think we can safely conclude that the moment word reached Tywin of Robert's death and Joffrey's ascension, he launched the attack. The timing is simply too close for it to be a coincidence. So the risk was extremely low, and the potential consequences for his actions were mild.

When the Golden Tooth was fought, Ned was a captive in King's Landing, so Tywin had leverage against any northern involvement, plus he outnumbers their army more than 2:1. Riverland forces were stretched across the border, so they were easy pickings. Lysa Arryn rules the Eyrie and has made no move to call her banners, Stannis is on Dragonstone with little to no support and Renly has not yet aligned with the Tyrells. And as far as we know, Tywin, if he has even heard the rumors of incest yet, has no reason to think they are anything more than the same calumnies told about royal children throughout the ages, or that the Baratheon brothers are intent on taking the throne. So in hindsight, it is easy to say that Tywin took a huge risk here, but given what he knew at the time and the state of the theater, it was a pretty straightforward decision to capitalize on his now secure hold on the Iron Throne and the disarray of his enemies.

Yes, Ned was a very valuable hostage. But Tywin has no way of know that Cersei would allow Joffrey to do something so stupid. So again, the risk he is taking at this point is minimal. But that is the way of war.

 

 

[Lord Varys]

3 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

OK, so there is no reason for Tywin to conclude that Robert will march on him just because his friend Ned says that's the thing to do. If we look at history, in fact, there is little reason to think he would. Robert rejected Ned's demand that Tywin be held accountable for the Targ babes, rejected his call to send Jaime to the Wall, rejected his call to name Jaime as Warden of the East, rejected his call to bring Jaime back to justice . . . In every instance that we know of, Robert has sided with the Lannisters, against Ned.

You are over-emphasizing things. Yes, Robert sided with Tywin against the Targaryens back during the Sack. That was a major issue. But Robert named Jaime Warden of the East before discussing the issue with Ned. And, yes, he was not willing to turn against his brother-in-law while it was only over some of his men killing some of Ned's. But that was prior to the crisis in the Riverlands.

3 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

I don't recall Robar saying he brought the message to Robert, but I'll take you word for it. But this is still beside the point. Beric is being sent to bring just to Gregor, not Tywin. Tywin still has ample ways to interfere with this mission without bluntly impeding it, and he can still appeal to Robert that Gregor was convicted in absentia, without given the opportunity to defend himself or demand a TbC. So none of this is putting Tywin, or his legacy, at any risk.

Robert tells Ned on his deathbed about that, didn't he? Where he also mentions that he didn't tell Sandor about the fact that somebody else was sent to deal with Gregor.

3 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Um, no, that is not just Ned's opinion. I gave you the quote. Ned asks leave to bring Jaime back and Robert says "no." That's not an opinion, that is a fact. It is exactly what happened. But now that you mention it, Lady was yet another example of Ned siding with Lannisters over Ned.

It is just Ned's opinion that Robert is going to continue to side with the Lannisters. Ned doesn't know what Robert knows, and his own view of the man is influenced by the Sack history as well as the Lady issue - and also by the attempts on Bran and Jon Arryn. While he hasn't figured out the incest he doesn't know what Robert's role in all that is. And even afterwards he, in my opinion, wrongly concluded that Robert might kill Cersei's children.

Lady is ugly business but it is hardly surprising that Robert didn't give a damn about her - or wanted an actual direwolf at his court. I mean, him saying that Sansa should better have a different pet are among the wisest things the man ever says in the books. It was ridiculous to assume that little children could walk around with savage beasts at court.

And if one keeps in mind that the proper sentence for Arya Stark for her attack on the Crown Prince should have been maiming - and considering that Queen Cersei actually wanted that to happen - his judgment was pretty mild.

3 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Yes, they always make up, until the next rift. And Ned was all set to return to Winterfell if LF had not brought him to that last brothel. So all of this evidence simply points up the fallacy of what you are saying: there was absolutely no reason why Tywin should think that his actions up until Robert's death would bring the wrath of the Iron Throne down on his head to destroy him, his family or his legacy.

That would imply that Tywin knew the intricacies of the Ned-Robert relationship the way you think you are knowing it. Bottom line is that Tywin certainly knew how King Robert reacted when the Greyjoys rebelled.

Ned was determined to return to Winterfell, yes - but we don't know why Robert changed his mind and reappointed Ned Hand. Was it because his leg was broken or simply because he had cooled down? I don't think we can say that Robert would have allowed Ned to leave if the brothel episode hadn't happened. Robert and Ned had a falling out and then Cersei and Jaime would have pushed him to punish Ned for the Tyrion abduction as they did - yet somehow that did not cause Robert to cut ties with Ned.

3 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

The war would not have escalated if Robert had lived. He already commanded Tyrion's release. If Ned continued to defy him on that then it would be Ned who has to worry, not Tywin. Once that is done, and the lie that spurred Cat to take Tyrion in the first place is exposed, it will be the Starks who look the fools (and Littlefinger the villain), not the Lannisters. The only way this goes bad for Tywin is if he jumps the gun and openly attacks the Riverlands while Robert is still hale and hearty -- and Tywin is simply not that stupid.

If the lie came out, Littlefinger (and Varys) could claim they had acted in the king's best interest, protecting him from Ned. After all, if the king's dagger was used in an assassination attempt then the king was likely behind that attempt, no? What Robert would have done had he figured out that Joff took the dagger to give Bran a mercy killing after he himself had argued for something like that is a very interesting question.

Freeing Tyrion wouldn't have been easy - he was Lysa's prisoner at that point, meaning that if Robert had insisted he could have gotten a united Stark-Arryn-Tully faction standing against him.

3 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Despite that fact that Ned lays wounded by Jaime's command, Robert does not strike Cersei until she mouths off to Robert. So there is no reason to suggest that the beating was in retribution for Jaime's actions when it was clearly done in a pique of anger because she got under his skin with her comment impugning his manhood. So the whole notion that Robert started beating Cersei because the Lannisters were attacking his best friend is completely false, as is the extended argument that Robert would go to war to utterly destroy House Lannister just because he always sides with Ned. The text makes it abundantly clear that this is not the case, over and over again.

You have to take the context in mind. It happens after Jaime killed Ned's men and seriously injured him, and after Jaime had left. Cersei herself says that Jaime's absence has to do with the fact that Robert dared to strike her in the face.

And while we don't know how important Ned's injury was to Robert deciding to rename him Hand - it is quite clear that it would have played a part.

3 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Yes, the "trial" was over -- a trial in which no one who saw these actions called Gregor by name, Gregor himself was offered no opportunity to speak a word in his defense, and he was condemned without being afforded his legal right, as an anointed knight, to be judged by the gods. Not only is this a flagrant violation of even the rudimentary due process that exists in the 7K, but it is a violation of Ned's personal code of conduct that if you are not willing to look a condemned man in the eye and hear what he has to say, then he probably does not deserve to die. There is no way Robert would let this ruling stand, and no way the rest of the realm would not call him a tyrant if he did.

It stood. Robert did not revoke it after he heard about in the Kingswood.

And, frankly, we don't know what kind of 'due process' people get in this world. The Stinger is very aware that King Jaehaerys I decides his fate, not some due process. It is up the the lordly or royal judge to decide whether a trial-by-combat is granted or not. The same goes for the Tyrion situation in the Vale. If the audience hadn't been so public with so many lordly dignitaries attending, Lysa would have gotten away with not allowing Tyrion his trial-by-combat.

I mean, you only get a trial of any sort if your guilt is not established because you have been captured or overlooked red-handed. If your guilt is evident you are just punished. No rebel or traitor gets a trial-by-combat to establish his guilt - it is evident.

3 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Gregor's men are not going to be present when Tywin gives him these orders. Again, Tywin is not that stupid. And Gregor's men are not going to risk the wrath of Gregor or Tywin by throwing either of them under the bus. They would have nothing to gain by doing this and everything to lose because they would be admitting that they were willing participants in these crimes. Sorry, but this is a non-argument.

Not really. After all, you do know that the king has the means to question you ... sharply. I never said those men would necessarily come forth to accuse or testify against Gregor and/or Tywin by themselves.

3 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

OK, so Tywin was preparing for war. His son was unjustly kidnapped and he took steps to preserve the honor of his house. Any other lord would have done the same. He did not invade, however, so he did not break the king's peace. And I think we can safely conclude that the moment word reached Tywin of Robert's death and Joffrey's ascension, he launched the attack. The timing is simply too close for it to be a coincidence. So the risk was extremely low, and the potential consequences for his actions were mild.

But we don't know. And it seems very clear that especially Jaime wouldn't have given a rat's ass about whether Robert was alive or dead. He wanted to free Tyrion no matter what.

3 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

When the Golden Tooth was fought, Ned was a captive in King's Landing, so Tywin had leverage against any northern involvement, plus he outnumbers their army more than 2:1. Riverland forces were stretched across the border, so they were easy pickings. Lysa Arryn rules the Eyrie and has made no move to call her banners, Stannis is on Dragonstone with little to no support and Renly has not yet aligned with the Tyrells. And as far as we know, Tywin, if he has even heard the rumors of incest yet, has no reason to think they are anything more than the same calumnies told about royal children throughout the ages, or that the Baratheon brothers are intent on taking the throne. So in hindsight, it is easy to say that Tywin took a huge risk here, but given what he knew at the time and the state of the theater, it was a pretty straightforward decision to capitalize on his now secure hold on the Iron Throne and the disarray of his enemies.

Tywin is afraid of Stannis Baratheon. He essentially says that himself at the end of AGoT when Stannis has not yet written any letters. We don't know whether he expected that Renly would crown himself but he expected to have to fight Stannis even before Stannis declared himself king in his letters.

A cautious man would have realized that the Starks, Tullys, Arryns, and Baratheons could forge an alliance against the Lannisters in all that.

It would have been stupid to antagonize the Riverlords and the Northmen after the death of Robert if Tywin expected to have to fight at least one of Robert's brothers for the throne - which he did.

Ned was worth as much as 'leverage' as Tyrion was to the Starks - nothing. Both houses went to war because a family was taken. They did not allow themselves to be intimidated by that kind of thing.

3 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Yes, Ned was a very valuable hostage. But Tywin has no way of know that Cersei would allow Joffrey to do something so stupid. So again, the risk he is taking at this point is minimal. But that is the way of war.

They later thought about exchanging Ned for Jaime until it was clear that no longer worked, but nobody ever entertained the notion to try to exchange Ned for Tyrion. I mean, if things were as you want them to be - if the Lannisters only invaded the Riverlands after Robert's death and Ned's arrest then it is actually very odd that they did that. Tywin could have told Cersei to write a letter to the Eyrie to demand Tyrion in exchange for Ned. That way they could have prevented open hostilities. Because, frankly, the Riverlords had no intention to actually invade the Westerlands.

[R2D]

Bump

[John Suburbs]

18 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

You are over-emphasizing things. Yes, Robert sided with Tywin against the Targaryens back during the Sack. That was a major issue. But Robert named Jaime Warden of the East before discussing the issue with Ned. And, yes, he was not willing to turn against his brother-in-law while it was only over some of his men killing some of Ned's. But that was prior to the crisis in the Riverlands.

Robert tells Ned on his deathbed about that, didn't he? Where he also mentions that he didn't tell Sandor about the fact that somebody else was sent to deal with Gregor.

It is just Ned's opinion that Robert is going to continue to side with the Lannisters. Ned doesn't know what Robert knows, and his own view of the man is influenced by the Sack history as well as the Lady issue - and also by the attempts on Bran and Jon Arryn. While he hasn't figured out the incest he doesn't know what Robert's role in all that is. And even afterwards he, in my opinion, wrongly concluded that Robert might kill Cersei's children.

Lady is ugly business but it is hardly surprising that Robert didn't give a damn about her - or wanted an actual direwolf at his court. I mean, him saying that Sansa should better have a different pet are among the wisest things the man ever says in the books. It was ridiculous to assume that little children could walk around with savage beasts at court.

And if one keeps in mind that the proper sentence for Arya Stark for her attack on the Crown Prince should have been maiming - and considering that Queen Cersei actually wanted that to happen - his judgment was pretty mild.

That would imply that Tywin knew the intricacies of the Ned-Robert relationship the way you think you are knowing it. Bottom line is that Tywin certainly knew how King Robert reacted when the Greyjoys rebelled.

Ned was determined to return to Winterfell, yes - but we don't know why Robert changed his mind and reappointed Ned Hand. Was it because his leg was broken or simply because he had cooled down? I don't think we can say that Robert would have allowed Ned to leave if the brothel episode hadn't happened. Robert and Ned had a falling out and then Cersei and Jaime would have pushed him to punish Ned for the Tyrion abduction as they did - yet somehow that did not cause Robert to cut ties with Ned.

If the lie came out, Littlefinger (and Varys) could claim they had acted in the king's best interest, protecting him from Ned. After all, if the king's dagger was used in an assassination attempt then the king was likely behind that attempt, no? What Robert would have done had he figured out that Joff took the dagger to give Bran a mercy killing after he himself had argued for something like that is a very interesting question.

Freeing Tyrion wouldn't have been easy - he was Lysa's prisoner at that point, meaning that if Robert had insisted he could have gotten a united Stark-Arryn-Tully faction standing against him.

You have to take the context in mind. It happens after Jaime killed Ned's men and seriously injured him, and after Jaime had left. Cersei herself says that Jaime's absence has to do with the fact that Robert dared to strike her in the face.

And while we don't know how important Ned's injury was to Robert deciding to rename him Hand - it is quite clear that it would have played a part.

It stood. Robert did not revoke it after he heard about in the Kingswood.

And, frankly, we don't know what kind of 'due process' people get in this world. The Stinger is very aware that King Jaehaerys I decides his fate, not some due process. It is up the the lordly or royal judge to decide whether a trial-by-combat is granted or not. The same goes for the Tyrion situation in the Vale. If the audience hadn't been so public with so many lordly dignitaries attending, Lysa would have gotten away with not allowing Tyrion his trial-by-combat.

I mean, you only get a trial of any sort if your guilt is not established because you have been captured or overlooked red-handed. If your guilt is evident you are just punished. No rebel or traitor gets a trial-by-combat to establish his guilt - it is evident.

Not really. After all, you do know that the king has the means to question you ... sharply. I never said those men would necessarily come forth to accuse or testify against Gregor and/or Tywin by themselves.

But we don't know. And it seems very clear that especially Jaime wouldn't have given a rat's ass about whether Robert was alive or dead. He wanted to free Tyrion no matter what.

Tywin is afraid of Stannis Baratheon. He essentially says that himself at the end of AGoT when Stannis has not yet written any letters. We don't know whether he expected that Renly would crown himself but he expected to have to fight Stannis even before Stannis declared himself king in his letters.

A cautious man would have realized that the Starks, Tullys, Arryns, and Baratheons could forge an alliance against the Lannisters in all that.

It would have been stupid to antagonize the Riverlords and the Northmen after the death of Robert if Tywin expected to have to fight at least one of Robert's brothers for the throne - which he did.

Ned was worth as much as 'leverage' as Tyrion was to the Starks - nothing. Both houses went to war because a family was taken. They did not allow themselves to be intimidated by that kind of thing.

They later thought about exchanging Ned for Jaime until it was clear that no longer worked, but nobody ever entertained the notion to try to exchange Ned for Tyrion. I mean, if things were as you want them to be - if the Lannisters only invaded the Riverlands after Robert's death and Ned's arrest then it is actually very odd that they did that. Tywin could have told Cersei to write a letter to the Eyrie to demand Tyrion in exchange for Ned. That way they could have prevented open hostilities. Because, frankly, the Riverlords had no intention to actually invade the Westerlands.

Not quite. Robert had "promised" to name Jaime Warden of the East before consulting with Ned, but the appointment is never made and Jaime is never referred to by this title. The fact is that even when Ned speaks against it, Robert is still not swayed. He once again sides with Lannisters against Ned.

Right on Robar:

Quote

"Can't leave a man to hunt in peace. Ser Robar found me. Gregor's head. Ugly thought. Never told the Hound. Let Cersei surprise him."

But this is Robert as he lay dying. Would his reaction have been the same if he came back unhurt and this ruling was now on his shoulders? I think not, especially with both Cersei and Pycelle pointing out how Sandor was deprived of his rights.

Ned does not think Robert will side with the Lannisters:

Quote

"Lord Beric rides beneath the king's own banner. If Lord Tywin attempts to interfere with the king's justice, he will have Robert to answer to. The only thing His Grace enjoys more than hunting is making war on lords who defy him."

Note, however, that this is specifically referring to Tywin interfering with Beric's mission, not his massing of forces on his own lands. So sure, if Tywin is stupid enough to attack Beric or hinder him in any way, then he'll have a problem. But please give the man some credit; he is not utterly stupid. There are plenty of ways to delay or obfuscate Beric without openly defying the crown, and Gregor still has some legal recourse to overturn this ruling and eventually exonerate himself.

Lady is simply one more example of Robert siding with the Lannisters over Ned's objections. I've provided at least five cases when this has happened. Is there a single instance in which he sided with Ned? I can't think of any.

Yes, Tywin knows how Robert reacted to Greyjoy, which is exactly why he is not doing the same thing. At no time did Tywin break Robert's peace, and there is no indication that he would have done so if Robert had lived. So again, he is taking no risk here with his life, his family, his house or his legacy. He is not openly defying Robert. He is doing it undercover while keeping his hands clean.

Eh, we're into speculative territory about what would or would not have happened if Ned hadn't been injured. The last thing Robert said to Ned was:

Quote

"Out. Out, damn you, I'm done with you. What are you waiting for? Go, run back to Winterfell. And make certain I never look on your face again, or I swear, I'll have your head on a spike."

You can bet these words were relayed to Tywin as fast as Pycelle could scurry to his ravens. So did the raiding start before this happened? Probably. Did Tywin expect a rapprochement? Maybe, we'll never know. But it is a safe bet that Tywin knows Robert is not going to go to war with him just because Ned says so. Tywin has done nothing overtly to violate the king's peace.

Yeah, I'm sure Littlefinger would have come up with some excuse to talk himself out of it. But the fact is, he knowingly lied, and that lie touched off the current crisis. But Robert still needs Littlefinger, so maybe he would have let it slide, or maybe not.

Um, no. Robert had ordered Tyrion released. None of these lords or ladies, are going to rebel against the crown for Tyrion's sake. Tyrion would have been brought back to KL to be judged by the king, and when the lie about the dagger came out, he would have been exonerated. That means Tywin would have stood down, end of crisis. The only loose thread would be Gregor, and he would win his TbC. You're whole argument is predicated on the assumption that Tywin would have invaded the Riverlands regardless of whether Robert lived or died, and this is simply not tenable. All he wanted was his son released and his honor restored. He only invaded after Robert died because it appeared that Lysa and Catelyn were going to execute Tyrion, and he now had his own son on the Iron Throne to give him a free hand to do so. If Robert had lived, none of this would have happened, and Robert would once again have sided with Lannisters over the Starks because they, in fact, are in the right on this.

If that blow was in retaliation for Ned's injuries, then it would not have happened the way it did. It was done in a pique of anger after Cersei challenged Robert's manhood. If she had not done that, there would have been no blow. So to say that Robert started beating Cersei only after Ned was attacked is, first of all, false, and second of all not the reason she was beaten this time, and thirdly can in no way suggest that Robert is now going to wage all-out war on House Lannister.

Robert was dying. Who knows what he would have decided once he got back to KL and realized that the man was sentenced to death without being given the opportunity to speak a single word in his defense. Again, you keep assuming that everything would have proceeded just as they did had Robert lived, and this is clearly not the case. Robert's death changed everything; it upset the entire balance of the realm.

But the public was there in the Vale, and there would have been an even larger public in the Red Keep. Gregor has a right to be heard and a right to a TbC. Ned vastly overstepped his authority by condemning him to death and again, violated his own personal code of executing someone without hearing what he has to say. If Robert were to let this slide, people would start calling him a tyrant -- even more so if he drags Gregor's men down to the black cells only to produce them in court all beaten, bloodied and maimed singing all these songs about Gregor.

If Jaime launched the attack, well then that's not Tywin risking it all, it's Jaime. I think it is abundantly clear that Tywin did not strike until Joffrey held the throne. The man is not stupid.

Ned was not worth nothing. Far from it:

Quote

"You have the right of it about Stark. Alive, we might have used Lord Eddard to forge a peace with Winterfell and Riverrun, a peace that would have given us the time we need to deal with Robert's brothers."

Getting hold of Ned, in fact, was Tywin's plan from the beginning, specifically in order to exchange him for Tyrion. He wouldn't have bothered it he was worth nothing. And in any event, Tywin outnumbers Robb by more than 2:1.

I doubt Tywin is afraid of anyone. He recognizes that Stannis himself is the best military mind in the field, but at the moment he has no support, so he is not really a threat. The Reach would be his biggest concern, but again, they don't enter the war until after the Green Fork, weeks if not months after Tywin had committed himself. He would have no reason to believe that Highgarden would attempt to put a younger brother on the throne but would more likely throw their support to Stannis. And at the time of the Riverlands invasion, there was no indication that they intended to do so.

Cersei did not have Ned until after Robert died. At that moment, Joffrey became king, Ned was the traitor and there was nothing preventing Tywin to reclaim his house's honor by going to war.

[Lord Varys]

3 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Not quite. Robert had "promised" to name Jaime Warden of the East before consulting with Ned, but the appointment is never made and Jaime is never referred to by this title. The fact is that even when Ned speaks against it, Robert is still not swayed. He once again sides with Lannisters against Ned.

That is actually not clear. We do know that Robert Arryn was not named Warden of the East until Littlefinger brought the Vale back into the fold (all the stuff about Lysa styling her son 'the True Warden of the East') so it might be that Jaime was actually named Warden of the East.

But my general point is that the decision to not name Robert Arryn Warden of the East and to offer/promise that position to Jaime Lannister was something King Robert Baratheon had done before he had offered Eddard Stark the position of Hand and before Ned had accepted that position.

Ned's input on the matter simply came too late, just as it came in the case of fostering Robert Arryn.

3 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Right on Robar:

But this is Robert as he lay dying. Would his reaction have been the same if he came back unhurt and this ruling was now on his shoulders? I think not, especially with both Cersei and Pycelle pointing out how Sandor was deprived of his rights.

If Robert had been pissed about that he could and would have decreed something in the forest. He could unmade Ned's declaration on the Iron Throne with a word.

3 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Note, however, that this is specifically referring to Tywin interfering with Beric's mission, not his massing of forces on his own lands. So sure, if Tywin is stupid enough to attack Beric or hinder him in any way, then he'll have a problem. But please give the man some credit; he is not utterly stupid. There are plenty of ways to delay or obfuscate Beric without openly defying the crown, and Gregor still has some legal recourse to overturn this ruling and eventually exonerate himself.

Gregor is acting on Tywin's orders as we know - do you expect Tywin would sacrifice Gregor? Could certainly be the case, but if he did, then Gregor and his people would likely point the finger on Tywin. If the Crown intervened - regardless whether Beric, Ned, or Robert commanded the king's men - then Tywin would still act. He wanted the Riverlords to attack him first, but he certainly was prepared to go to war over this issue.

3 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Yes, Tywin knows how Robert reacted to Greyjoy, which is exactly why he is not doing the same thing. At no time did Tywin break Robert's peace, and there is no indication that he would have done so if Robert had lived. So again, he is taking no risk here with his life, his family, his house or his legacy. He is not openly defying Robert. He is doing it undercover while keeping his hands clean.

He did break the King's Peace by sending out Gregor Clegane and his men. It might be difficult to prove, but he still did it and we know it.

3 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

You can bet these words were relayed to Tywin as fast as Pycelle could scurry to his ravens. So did the raiding start before this happened? Probably. Did Tywin expect a rapprochement? Maybe, we'll never know. But it is a safe bet that Tywin knows Robert is not going to go to war with him just because Ned says so. Tywin has done nothing overtly to violate the king's peace.

Could be that Pycelle sent such a message - but he sure as hell would also have immediately sent other messages telling him about Jaime's attack, his escape, Ned's injury, and reappointment as Hand.

And obviously the information about Ned's injury didn't reach Tywin's men in time or else Beric's party would have likely not been attacked and killed the way they were.

If Tywin had been as cautious and as well-informed as you think Pycelle would have kept him then one would have expected that Gregor's people would have retreated back into the heart of the West where they would be protected by Tywin's main host.

3 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Um, no. Robert had ordered Tyrion released.

Lysa, Catelyn, and Ned would (and did) ignore that royal command. Robert's command was pretty meaningless in the Vale, especially after how he had treated Jon Arryn's son in the past.

3 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

None of these lords or ladies, are going to rebel against the crown for Tyrion's sake. Tyrion would have been brought back to KL to be judged by the king, and when the lie about the dagger came out, he would have been exonerated. That means Tywin would have stood down, end of crisis. The only loose thread would be Gregor, and he would win his TbC. You're whole argument is predicated on the assumption that Tywin would have invaded the Riverlands regardless of whether Robert lived or died, and this is simply not tenable. All he wanted was his son released and his honor restored. He only invaded after Robert died because it appeared that Lysa and Catelyn were going to execute Tyrion, and he now had his own son on the Iron Throne to give him a free hand to do so. If Robert had lived, none of this would have happened, and Robert would once again have sided with Lannisters over the Starks because they, in fact, are in the right on this.

Considering that Gregor butchered Beric's party at a point when Tywin and his people didn't even know that Ned had been injured I don't think we have any reason to believe Tywin knew about Robert's death when he started to march. Especially since Jaime actually started the hostilities up at the Golden Tooth.

3 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Robert was dying. Who knows what he would have decided once he got back to KL and realized that the man was sentenced to death without being given the opportunity to speak a single word in his defense. Again, you keep assuming that everything would have proceeded just as they did had Robert lived, and this is clearly not the case. Robert's death changed everything; it upset the entire balance of the realm.

See above. Robert could have unmade Ned's decree in a hearbeat. Robar told him about that and Robert let it stand.

3 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

But the public was there in the Vale, and there would have been an even larger public in the Red Keep. Gregor has a right to be heard and a right to a TbC. Ned vastly overstepped his authority by condemning him to death and again, violated his own personal code of executing someone without hearing what he has to say. If Robert were to let this slide, people would start calling him a tyrant -- even more so if he drags Gregor's men down to the black cells only to produce them in court all beaten, bloodied and maimed singing all these songs about Gregor.

That's just your opinion, nothing we can from the text. We don't know when exactly you have a right to be heard or the right for trial-by-combat. Just look how the Webbers and Osgreys do settle their differences in TSS - they don't even bother to involve their liege lord in their quarrels.

And, frankly, it is ridiculous to assume that Westeros is as stupid a society as to allow people who were caught red-handed - which Gregor and his people were, since people effectively recognized the Mountain - a means to exonerate themselves.

You draw steel on your liege lord, you die. You don't get the right to challenge your liege lord to a duel to settle the question whether you drew steel on your liege lord. And we do know that the King's Peace is a very serious issue since the days of Aegon the Conqueror. When you break it you die. Period.

I'm not saying lords and kings could not decide to conduct long-winded investigations and trials or decide to grant a man like Gregor a trial-by-combat in that situation - the point is that your claim that Ned would have to do this is wrong. Nobody in-universe ever says Gregor deserved/had a right to a trial-by-combat or had the right to demand that his voice be heard. And with nobody ever saying that we cannot conclude that Ned was overstepping his bounds there.

3 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

If Jaime launched the attack, well then that's not Tywin risking it all, it's Jaime. I think it is abundantly clear that Tywin did not strike until Joffrey held the throne. The man is not stupid.

That is not clear. And Jaime would have been acting with Tywin's knowledge and permission. The army Jaime commanded was Tywin's army.

3 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

I doubt Tywin is afraid of anyone. He recognizes that Stannis himself is the best military mind in the field, but at the moment he has no support, so he is not really a threat. The Reach would be his biggest concern, but again, they don't enter the war until after the Green Fork, weeks if not months after Tywin had committed himself. He would have no reason to believe that Highgarden would attempt to put a younger brother on the throne but would more likely throw their support to Stannis. And at the time of the Riverlands invasion, there was no indication that they intended to do so.

It is pretty clear Tywin is afraid of Stannis. Both when they discuss the threat he poses in the camp and again after the Blackwater when he fears Stannis could team up with Dorne.

[John Suburbs]

22 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

That is actually not clear. We do know that Robert Arryn was not named Warden of the East until Littlefinger brought the Vale back into the fold (all the stuff about Lysa styling her son 'the True Warden of the East') so it might be that Jaime was actually named Warden of the East.

But my general point is that the decision to not name Robert Arryn Warden of the East and to offer/promise that position to Jaime Lannister was something King Robert Baratheon had done before he had offered Eddard Stark the position of Hand and before Ned had accepted that position.

Ned's input on the matter simply came too late, just as it came in the case of fostering Robert Arryn.

If Robert had been pissed about that he could and would have decreed something in the forest. He could unmade Ned's declaration on the Iron Throne with a word.

Gregor is acting on Tywin's orders as we know - do you expect Tywin would sacrifice Gregor? Could certainly be the case, but if he did, then Gregor and his people would likely point the finger on Tywin. If the Crown intervened - regardless whether Beric, Ned, or Robert commanded the king's men - then Tywin would still act. He wanted the Riverlords to attack him first, but he certainly was prepared to go to war over this issue.

He did break the King's Peace by sending out Gregor Clegane and his men. It might be difficult to prove, but he still did it and we know it.

Could be that Pycelle sent such a message - but he sure as hell would also have immediately sent other messages telling him about Jaime's attack, his escape, Ned's injury, and reappointment as Hand.

And obviously the information about Ned's injury didn't reach Tywin's men in time or else Beric's party would have likely not been attacked and killed the way they were.

If Tywin had been as cautious and as well-informed as you think Pycelle would have kept him then one would have expected that Gregor's people would have retreated back into the heart of the West where they would be protected by Tywin's main host.

Lysa, Catelyn, and Ned would (and did) ignore that royal command. Robert's command was pretty meaningless in the Vale, especially after how he had treated Jon Arryn's son in the past.

Considering that Gregor butchered Beric's party at a point when Tywin and his people didn't even know that Ned had been injured I don't think we have any reason to believe Tywin knew about Robert's death when he started to march. Especially since Jaime actually started the hostilities up at the Golden Tooth.

See above. Robert could have unmade Ned's decree in a hearbeat. Robar told him about that and Robert let it stand.

That's just your opinion, nothing we can from the text. We don't know when exactly you have a right to be heard or the right for trial-by-combat. Just look how the Webbers and Osgreys do settle their differences in TSS - they don't even bother to involve their liege lord in their quarrels.

And, frankly, it is ridiculous to assume that Westeros is as stupid a society as to allow people who were caught red-handed - which Gregor and his people were, since people effectively recognized the Mountain - a means to exonerate themselves.

You draw steel on your liege lord, you die. You don't get the right to challenge your liege lord to a duel to settle the question whether you drew steel on your liege lord. And we do know that the King's Peace is a very serious issue since the days of Aegon the Conqueror. When you break it you die. Period.

I'm not saying lords and kings could not decide to conduct long-winded investigations and trials or decide to grant a man like Gregor a trial-by-combat in that situation - the point is that your claim that Ned would have to do this is wrong. Nobody in-universe ever says Gregor deserved/had a right to a trial-by-combat or had the right to demand that his voice be heard. And with nobody ever saying that we cannot conclude that Ned was overstepping his bounds there.

That is not clear. And Jaime would have been acting with Tywin's knowledge and permission. The army Jaime commanded was Tywin's army.

It is pretty clear Tywin is afraid of Stannis. Both when they discuss the threat he poses in the camp and again after the Blackwater when he fears Stannis could team up with Dorne.

Well, there is no arguing against head canon, I guess. So I'll leave off here, since we've gone pretty far off-topic anyway.

[FictionIsntReal]

On 9/30/2019 at 5:28 PM, Lord Varys said:

Oh, I don't think Varys would be a legitimate Blackfyre or Targaryen descendant. He would be a bastard, and likely one that was never acknowledged by his father.

But considering how many children Daemon Blackfyre had (at least nine) chances are not that bad that some of his grandchildren and great-grandchildren lost track of each other, especially to such daughters who were married to obscure men in distant cities (or whose husbands eventually took them away and cut them from their kin).

Vary's early biography lets us make some guesses about his immediate parentage, but beyond that is even more of a mystery.

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I'm not so sure about Elia there. Gregor took Aegon from her, killed him, and only then raped and killed Elia. There was no reason to do the latter. He could have knocked her unconscious or simply have his men take her into custody.

There were orders specifically to kill Rhaegar's children. After that Gregor just did what he felt like.

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Tywin could have told the truth ... or not. But my point is that Tywin knew since the Sack what Gregor was and thus one should assume he knew what the man would do to whoever tried to arrest and execute him.

This makes it somewhat odd to assume he did not expect him to deal with Beric and his men the way he did.

Gregor followed his orders during the sack. He added some extra nastiness on top of that, but as Tywin said he hadn't given any orders regarding Elia. If Tywin ordered him specifically to capture Ned alive, he could expect that without assuming anyone else would be spared.

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Sure, but we can say that a Joffrey-Margaery marriage would have never happened in the wake of this. In fact, it might be that Renly and Ned had teamed up and later (assuming Renly eventually dies or not claims the throne himself) Margaery ends up marrying Robb Stark rather than Joffrey.

The prospect of a Joffrey-Margaery wedding wasn't really in the cards until after Renly died. Renly had been trying to replace the Lannisters with them, they were rivals more than potential allies.

 

I actually agree with a lot of what you've said, but don't want to write "ditto" over and over.

On 10/1/2019 at 3:06 PM, Lord Varys said:

You are over-emphasizing things. Yes, Robert sided with Tywin against the Targaryens back during the Sack. That was a major issue. But Robert named Jaime Warden of the East before discussing the issue with Ned. And, yes, he was not willing to turn against his brother-in-law while it was only over some of his men killing some of Ned's. But that was prior to the crisis in the Riverlands

 

I think there are some relevant reasons why Robert overrules Ned in some of the cited cases. When Tywin and Jaime betrayed Aerys, they were doing so ostensibly on behalf of Robert, and Robert regards them as having saved him the trouble of overthrowing Aerys himself. As you note, when Lady was killed, it meant Robert didn't have to deal with a giant direwolf in the capital he regarded as unsuitable for a pet at any rate. But Lannister bannermen raiding the Riverlands doesn't serve an end Robert wants, it's just trouble he'd prefer not to have.

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And even afterwards he, in my opinion, wrongly concluded that Robert might kill Cersei's children.

I disagree with your opinion that he was "wrong" to conclude that. Catelyn and Stannis both agree that the products of incest are regarded as abominations unworthy of life. Cuckolding the king is treason on top of that.

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If the lie came out, Littlefinger (and Varys) could claim they had acted in the king's best interest, protecting him from Ned. After all, if the king's dagger was used in an assassination attempt then the king was likely behind that attempt, no? What Robert would have done had he figured out that Joff took the dagger to give Bran a mercy killing after he himself had argued for something like that is a very interesting question.

Lying to protect the king is one thing. Not immediately telling the king about that very important bit of information you have just learned is another. I don't think Robert would be all that happy about Tyrion being blamed either, my recollection was that Robert liked him better than the other Lannisters and he doesn't want Ned fighting with his in-laws anyway. At best Littlefinger could say it was the first plausible lie that popped into his head to feed to Ned, but he'd still be in trouble for not giving Robert a heads-up on the shit-storm coming.

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And, frankly, we don't know what kind of 'due process' people get in this world. The Stinger is very aware that King Jaehaerys I decides his fate, not some due process. It is up the the lordly or royal judge to decide whether a trial-by-combat is granted or not. The same goes for the Tyrion situation in the Vale. If the audience hadn't been so public with so many lordly dignitaries attending, Lysa would have gotten away with not allowing Tyrion his trial-by-combat.

I think the expectation was that Gregor would be killed, but it also appears that nobles expect some right to trial once they're in custody. Rickard Karstark demanded a trial by combat, and the Mad King went through the pretenses of granting it only to choose wildfire as his "champion", for which he is condemned. Tyrion successfully demands trials by combat multiple times even when in the hands of people who hate him. In both of those cases someone else stood in for Tyrion and Cersei tries to restrict who can fight for Margaery, so I wonder if the King could have required that Gregor NOT fight on his own behalf but instead someone vouching for his innocence. On the other hand, the Cleganes are merely landed knights, so perhaps they don't have the same rights as nobles. The Singer was a smallfolk, so he could not expect the same rights.

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I mean, you only get a trial of any sort if your guilt is not established because you have been captured or overlooked red-handed. If your guilt is evident you are just punished. No rebel or traitor gets a trial-by-combat to establish his guilt - it is evident.

If Gregor had gone back to his keep and claimed to be an innocent man mistaken for someone else, then he wouldn't be caught red-handed and perhaps could have insisted on a trial. That's not what he did, but it's something he could have done. Amusingly enough, his brother is mistakenly accused of atrocities in the Riverlands committed by a large man in his helmet, which is later taken by another large outlaw.

On 10/2/2019 at 3:41 PM, Lord Varys said:

Gregor is acting on Tywin's orders as we know - do you expect Tywin would sacrifice Gregor? Could certainly be the case, but if he did, then Gregor and his people would likely point the finger on Tywin. If the Crown intervened - regardless whether Beric, Ned, or Robert commanded the king's men - then Tywin would still act. He wanted the Riverlords to attack him first, but he certainly was prepared to go to war over this issue.

I think Tywin would prefer not to give up any of his pawns, but has no qualms about throwing others under the bus for his own interests. And Tywin could arrange for Gregor to be killed "evading capture" before he got a chance to sell out Tywin.

[Lord Varys]

9 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Gregor followed his orders during the sack. He added some extra nastiness on top of that, but as Tywin said he hadn't given any orders regarding Elia. If Tywin ordered him specifically to capture Ned alive, he could expect that without assuming anyone else would be spared.

If that were the case then Tywin was stupid - yet again. That makes little sense to me. Wouldn't we expect Tywin to give Gregor rather specific orders this time to ensure that he did not - again - kill the wrong person as he might have done with Elia?

If he didn't give such commands then this certainly is an indication that he didn't care about an escalation of the war. I mean, Ned could have taken a bunch of very important people - Loras, Kingsguard, important dignitaries, etc. with him, and if - Ned himself aside - they had all been killed it would definitely escalate things. I mean, if Gregor continued to behave the way you think he would he might have even killed Ilyn Payne, assuming Payne had been sent by Ned to execute Gregor.

9 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

The prospect of a Joffrey-Margaery wedding wasn't really in the cards until after Renly died. Renly had been trying to replace the Lannisters with them, they were rivals more than potential allies.

Sure. But Loras' death at Gregor's hands would have made things between the Lannisters and Tyrells personal. As personal as they are between the Martells and the Lannisters. And Mace is not as cautious as Doran Martell.

9 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

I think there are some relevant reasons why Robert overrules Ned in some of the cited cases. When Tywin and Jaime betrayed Aerys, they were doing so ostensibly on behalf of Robert, and Robert regards them as having saved him the trouble of overthrowing Aerys himself. As you note, when Lady was killed, it meant Robert didn't have to deal with a giant direwolf in the capital he regarded as unsuitable for a pet at any rate. But Lannister bannermen raiding the Riverlands doesn't serve an end Robert wants, it's just trouble he'd prefer not to have.

Exactly. Robert sides with Cersei more often than not because she is his wife and queen and he views her and her kin as part of his family. What profits them also profits him - even if he doesn't get along with her all that much.

But as Cersei points out - Robert doesn't love her (and he also doesn't love Jaime or Tyrion or Tywin)

9 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

I disagree with your opinion that he was "wrong" to conclude that. Catelyn and Stannis both agree that the products of incest are regarded as abominations unworthy of life. Cuckolding the king is treason on top of that.

We have at this point no precedent for the children of incest actually being killed. Even the High Septon did not demand the murder or Aerea and Rhaella back during the Uprising.

Jaime and Cersei were guilty of a serious crime and would likely have been executed. But the children were guilty of no crime - and them being declared bastards would take away all their claims. Robert did not punish the murders of the Targaryen children because he hated Rhaegar. But he did not hate the children he believed to be his to the same degree.

Ned's judgment there is clouded due to the way Robert ignored the murders of Rhaenys and Aegon and, perhaps, due to him fearing for Jon's life.

9 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Lying to protect the king is one thing. Not immediately telling the king about that very important bit of information you have just learned is another. I don't think Robert would be all that happy about Tyrion being blamed either, my recollection was that Robert liked him better than the other Lannisters and he doesn't want Ned fighting with his in-laws anyway. At best Littlefinger could say it was the first plausible lie that popped into his head to feed to Ned, but he'd still be in trouble for not giving Robert a heads-up on the shit-storm coming.

Tyrion liked Robert - but nobody ever said anything about Robert liking Tyrion. Tyrion's recollection what Robert would do if he told him about the needs of the NW doesn't imply he cared about him at all (he expects to be ignored by Robert).

Robert also knows about Tyrion's arrest - but all he does is command his release, and that only half-heartedly. It is not a condition for Ned's reappointment as Hand that Tyrion has to be released, for instance.

9 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

I think the expectation was that Gregor would be killed, but it also appears that nobles expect some right to trial once they're in custody. Rickard Karstark demanded a trial by combat, and the Mad King went through the pretenses of granting it only to choose wildfire as his "champion", for which he is condemned. Tyrion successfully demands trials by combat multiple times even when in the hands of people who hate him. In both of those cases someone else stood in for Tyrion and Cersei tries to restrict who can fight for Margaery, so I wonder if the King could have required that Gregor NOT fight on his own behalf but instead someone vouching for his innocence. On the other hand, the Cleganes are merely landed knights, so perhaps they don't have the same rights as nobles. The Singer was a smallfolk, so he could not expect the same rights.

But Rickard Karstark didn't get a trial-by-combat - because his guilt was clearly established. Tyrion's guilt wasn't clearly established both in the case of the attempt on Bran/the murder of Jon Arryn nor the murder of Joffrey. He just stood accused of those deeds without any hard evidence supporting the case. If somebody kills somebody and is caught red-handed then there is apparently no need for a trial(-by-combat). Jaime, for instance, didn't need a trial(-by-combat) for it to be established that he killed King Aerys II.

It seems that the king or the Hand when speaking with the King's Voice is at liberty to set and interpret the rules as to when a person who stands accused is going to have a right to defend themselves. And for Ned it seems the testimonies of the men who were brought before the Iron Throne were enough to establish Gregor's guilt.

Pycelle's advice that Ned postpone a sentence until Ser Gregor himself could be heard was overruled.

9 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

If Gregor had gone back to his keep and claimed to be an innocent man mistaken for someone else, then he wouldn't be caught red-handed and perhaps could have insisted on a trial. That's not what he did, but it's something he could have done. Amusingly enough, his brother is mistakenly accused of atrocities in the Riverlands committed by a large man in his helmet, which is later taken by another large outlaw.

Perhaps. But that would have meant that either Ned himself or King Robert would have to change the previous ruling. Gregor had already be sentenced to death, and Beric's men were essentially sent as executioners, not men with the authority to change or reinterpret a royal ruling - which Ned as Hand of the King had given.

If they hadn't been able to actually arrest Ser Gregor or had been unable to take his keep, etc. then perhaps a compromise could have been reached further down the road. But that would have depended on the will of Ned/Robert to revisit the issue.

9 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

I think Tywin would prefer not to give up any of his pawns, but has no qualms about throwing others under the bus for his own interests. And Tywin could arrange for Gregor to be killed "evading capture" before he got a chance to sell out Tywin.

That would depend on Tywin's ability to get to Gregor. I mean, if Beric had taken twice or thrice and many men as he had he could have prevailed. He could have captured Gregor and his men at the ford and then Gregor and his men might have pointed the finger at Tywin before they were killed.

But here we simply know too little about the overall situation. We don't know how many proper Lannister men were with Gregor when he killed Beric the first time. Did Gregor only have his own Clegane men or was he actually supported by well-armed, well-trained Lannister men-at-arms? We really don't know. But since Tywin seems to have wanted to capture Ned alive Gregor may have acted there under more proper Lannister oversight than he did when he raided the Riverlands clandestinely.

The core point here though is that Tywin capturing Ned is still a direct attack on the king himself. Ned was the Hand of the King and the Hand of the King is, in a sense, the king himself. And since Robert did not overrule Ned's decision to execute Gregor it is quite clear the king was siding with his Hand on this issue - which means Robert wouldn't have been in any way happy if Tywin had actually taken Ned prisoner.

The same also goes - although in lesser degree - for the treatment of Beric - who rode under the king's own banner. An attack on him was also a direct attack on the king. Attacking the king's banner isn't the same as raiding some villages.

[FictionIsntReal]

On 10/6/2019 at 11:50 AM, Lord Varys said:

If that were the case then Tywin was stupid - yet again. That makes little sense to me. Wouldn't we expect Tywin to give Gregor rather specific orders this time to ensure that he did not - again - kill the wrong person as he might have done with Elia?

If he didn't give such commands then this certainly is an indication that he didn't care about an escalation of the war. I mean, Ned could have taken a bunch of very important people - Loras, Kingsguard, important dignitaries, etc. with him, and if - Ned himself aside - they had all been killed it would definitely escalate things. I mean, if Gregor continued to behave the way you think he would he might have even killed Ilyn Payne, assuming Payne had been sent by Ned to execute Gregor.

I don't think Tywin cares that much about what happened to Elia, and he probably regards other people Ned might send as less important than capturing him. Unless Robert himself takes part. We know Gregor lanced Beric through the chest, but it also doesn't seem like Beric was especially important in a political sense prior to his resurrection. We don't know what would have happened to Ilyn Payne, but I also don't think anyone really cares about him aside from being a symbolic representative of the king. Robert appointed him as a favor to Tywin, and while Tywin might appreciate the years Payne was able to serve him as Captain of the Guards, it doesn't seem like the Lannisters have had much to do with him since. Admittedly, since he can't talk or write, he's fairly isolated from most people. But it does seem notable that he executes Ned despite that being against the interests and desires of Tywin and Cersei.

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Sure. But Loras' death at Gregor's hands would have made things between the Lannisters and Tyrells personal. As personal as they are between the Martells and the Lannisters. And Mace is not as cautious as Doran Martell.

Raping and murdering a woman, along with killing her small children is quite a ways a way from a battle in which one knight with a grudge kills another on the opposite side. Ned doesn't send Loras because he wanted justice rather than revenge, and when a man seeks revenge and gets killed, it results in less outrage than an innocent. There were people calling for war after Oberyn died, but that was because Gregor's confession made the Lannister's prior actions harder to sweep under the rug, and at any rate Doran knew better than the Sand Snakes.

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We have at this point no precedent for the children of incest actually being killed. Even the High Septon did not demand the murder or Aerea and Rhaella back during the Uprising.

Outside of the Targaryens, the examples of children known to be products of incest discussed in the books are Craster's. Other wildlings regard them as abominations, although they don't have enough influence over him to do anything about it. I think we're supposed to take Catelyn's views as corroborations of Stannis' viewpoint among most Westerosi.

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Jaime and Cersei were guilty of a serious crime and would likely have been executed. But the children were guilty of no crime - and them being declared bastards would take away all their claims. Robert did not punish the murders of the Targaryen children because he hated Rhaegar. But he did not hate the children he believed to be his to the same degree.

Collective punishment is a common phenomena throughout history, and Westeros does not have a modern legal system. We know that children have been killed before due to the actions of adults in their house, whether at Castomere or Duskendale.

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But Rickard Karstark didn't get a trial-by-combat - because his guilt was clearly established. Tyrion's guilt wasn't clearly established both in the case of the attempt on Bran/the murder of Jon Arryn nor the murder of Joffrey. He just stood accused of those deeds without any hard evidence supporting the case. If somebody kills somebody and is caught red-handed then there is apparently no need for a trial(-by-combat). Jaime, for instance, didn't need a trial(-by-combat) for it to be established that he killed King Aerys II.

My mistake, I wrote "Karstark" instead of "Stark", obviously it was the latter who was killed by the Mad King in a "trial by combat" against wildfire. In contrast, I don't think Karstark even claimed to be innocent. He was basically committing suicide and bringing Robb down with him. Jaime never claimed innocence either, but he was also never punished.

 

 

[nyser1]

Unless he is a Blackfyre, the motive of Illyrio is greed and lust. Throw in the Blackfyre and you just have greed and lust in the shape of a black dragon.

[FictionIsntReal]

On 10/13/2019 at 4:08 PM, nyser1 said:

Unless he is a Blackfyre, the motive of Illyrio is greed and lust. Throw in the Blackfyre and you just have greed and lust in the shape of a black dragon.

How does lust play a role in Illyrio's plot with Varys?

[nyser1]

A lust for authority & power not for sexual desires.