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Jaime L

Westeros Experts League 2019

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16 hours ago, Jace, Basilissa said:

So you're saying there's a chance?

:smoking:

You still got a shot - there's a few scenarios where you stick (including even making the playoffs) but you'll need things to break your way and help. I would recommend scoring a bunch and also winning another league y'know just to be safe. 

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Mya not setting her lineup, making zero effort to find a QB, leaving players in on bye.....pretty rough. 

I understand that the autodraft sucked, but this is undermining the fairness of the league.  She's basically a free win for Jaime this week, which could have significant playoff implications.

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Week 11 Power Rankings/Record/Points

1) Whiskeyjack - 66-33 (7-4) 1,747 points 
2) Lord Dracarys - 65-34 (7-4) 1,780 points 
3) JJ Lannister - 57-42  (7-4) 1,692 points 
4) RaceBannon - 56-43 (7-4) 1,706 points 
5) Dunknegg - 55-44 (7-4) 1,628 points 
6) Jaime L - 51-48 (5-6) 1,738 points 
7) boiled leather - 45-54 (6-5) 1,610 points 
8) Jace, Balissa - 39-60 (5-6) 1,463 points
9) Fuentez - 35-64 (2-9) 1,458 points 
10) Mya Stone - 26-73 (2-9) 1,367 points 

Wow, after a bunch of dull weeks a ton happened this week.

First, the incredibly tense drama in the WJ-BL matchup this past week. The two highest scoring teams in week 10 faced off and ultimately the matchup swung in WJ's favor on a 10 yard Hunter Henry catch on 4th down with 40 seconds to go. And it nearly swung to a BL win had any non-Henry Charger been able to score a TD on that final drive but Felipe Rios' pick in the end zone sealed it. One of the harder luck losses I've seen for BL.

That matchup has big playoff circumstances as the league got a lot tighter record wise. 5 teams with 7 wins, 1 with 6 wins and 2 with 5 wins all gunning for the playoffs.

The only thing clear at this point is Mya and Fuentez will be Jaxomed almost certainly in that order. Their hopes of sticking in Experts depends entirely on what they can do in other leagues now. Beyond that, a bunch is up for grabs. Here's the remaining schedules for the other 8 teams:

WJ - Plays Race, Fuentez
Drac - Plays Jace, Mya
Race - Plays WJ, JJ
JJ - Plays BL, Race
Dunk - Plays Mya, JL
BL - Plays JJ, Jace
JL - Plays Fuentez, Dunk
Jace - Plays Drac, BL 

The 5 7-4 teams all have shots at the byes if they can finish 2-0 and it's hard to see any of them missing the playoffs short of laying a complete egg in the final two weeks. Drac and WJ have the inside track on the byes based on points scored. 

The main pivot point now is BL at 6-5 and whether Jace or I can finish ahead of him for that 6th playoff spot. If BL beats JJ, we'll have a minimum of 3 7-5 teams in the league (and potentially more), Jace will be eliminated (see below), and the question then is whether I can get to 6-6 and put pressure on those teams. 

Because Jace is lagging from a points scored perspective, she needs both to go 2-0 and for BL to go 0-2 (and for me to go no better than 1-1) to both make the playoffs and stay in the league outright. But because she plays BL in week 13 she has some control over this. 

Beyond that because of the relatively tight bunching in records and points scored, it's hard to draw to many other conclusions unless any of y'all are seeing something I'm not. Good luck, all.

 

 

 

 

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23 hours ago, Whiskeyjack said:

Trade with Jace.

I get Reek + Burkhead
She gets Hunt + Wilkins

Reek and Butthead is the cartoon that I must have NOW.

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Week 12 Power Rankings/Record/Points

1) Whiskeyjack - 75-33 (8-4) 1,917 points 
2) Lord Dracarys - 67-41 (7-5) 1,899 points 
3) RaceBannon - 63-45 (7-5) 1,860 points 
4) JJ Lannister - 62-46 (7-5) 1,837 points 
5) Jaime L - 57-51 (6-6) 1,885 points 
6) Dunknegg - 56-52 (7-5) 1,730 points 
7) boiled leather - 53-55 (7-5) 1,779 points 
8) Jace, Balissa - 42-66 (6-6) 1,603 points
9) Fuentez - 39-69 (2-10) 1,599 points 
10) Mya Stone - 26-82 (2-10) 1,430 points 

A lot to cover. Jace has won 4 in a row and yet BL's win this past week has effectively eliminated her both from playoff contention and has Jaxomed her.  She can beat BL this week and finish 7-6 but she trails all the other potential 7-6 teams by 127 points at least and there's guaranteed to be at least 6 other teams 7-6 or better. On the Jaxoming front she trails all the possible teams that could miss the playoffs by at least 11 power ranking wins. No way to make that up in one week. She made a valiant desperate stab at making the playoffs at end of the season but looks to have ultimately come up short. Sorry Jace, helluvan effort. 

Jaxoming Update

Thus Jaxomed: Mya, Fuentez, Jace in that order. Their main hope to stick in this league is to win another league. 

Playoff Update

WJ and Dunk have made the playoffs with 8 wins each. Drac has also effectively made the playoffs with 7 wins and 1,899 points scored. There is a small path for Drac to miss the playoffs where Drac loses to Mya AND BL AND I both win AND JJ outscores Drac by 62 points OR Race outscores Drac by 39 points but that's not super likely. Penciling in Drac as the 3rd playoff team.

From there, there's 3 critical matchups for determining which of the 4 teams left is the odd man out for the playoffs (between me, BL, JJ and Race) 

1) The first hinge is my matchup vs. Dunk. If I lose, I'm the one who misses the playoffs. If I win, we go to the second hinge:
2) The second hinge is BL's matchup vs. Jace. If BL loses, he only makes the playoffs if I lose. Otherwise he's the one out. If BL wins he makes the playoffs. If BL and I win we go to the third hinge:
3) The third hinge is JJ's matchup vs. Race. If BL and I both win, then the loser of this matchup is out of the playoffs UNLESS:

a) JJ loses but outscores me by 48.48 points 
b) Race loses but outscores me by 25.72 points 

If either of those happen I'm out of the playoffs. As noted above whoever misses the playoffs between me, BL, Race and JJ is safe by power rankings.

Bye Update

WJ gets the 1 seed if he beats Fuentez. If he loses, he can still get a bye as long as his point total remains higher than any other 8 win team and only Drac is a likely threat to get a win and outscore him (currently 18 points back). 

Dunk gets a bye if he beats me. 

If Dunk loses, the second bye goes to either Drac (if he beats Mya) or the winner of JJ vs. Race. In this scenario the winner of JJ vs. Race would need to make up their respective points deficits to Drac to get that bye. 

There are some other longshot (<1%) scenarios that could defy the above analyses where someone blows up points-wise in week 13 but they're too remote to go into detail here. 

Good luck all. 

Edited by Jaime L

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Thanks for the rundown Jaime.  Always fun to see all the scenarios summarized.  Going to be watching every matchup this week.

Good luck everyone.

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Final Power Rankings/Record/Points

1) Whiskeyjack - 78-39 (8-5) 2,045 points 
2) Lord Dracarys - 72-45 (8-5) 2.039 points 
3) JJ Lannister -70-47 (8-5) 2,009 points 
4) Jaime L - 66-51 (7-6) 2,071 points 
5) RaceBannon - 64-53 (7-6) 1,977 points 
6) Dunknegg - 62-55 (8-5) 1,891 points 
7) boiled leather - 60-57 (8-5) 1,941 points 
8) Jace, Balissa - 44-73 (6-7) 1,722 points
9) Fuentez - 43-74 (3-10) 1,729 points 
10) Mya Stone - 26-91 (2-11) 1,538 points 

Coming into week 13 of the 4 teams on the playoff bubble Race was best positioned based on wins and points. Even had a shot at a bye. And then just the perfect storm of things going wrong happened. I won, BL won, JJ put up a big score against him, his team didn't do enough and just like that he found himself outside the playoffs. Based on any measure, record/points/power ranking, he's probably the best team to ever miss the playoffs in Experts. 

It's the cruel result of the unprecedented parity of this Experts season. There were 7 very good teams and no great ones. 7 won 7 games or more but no-one won more than 8 games which is something I've never seen before. 4 teams got over 2,000 points but no-one got to 2,100. Was a strange season where a bunch of teams went really hot at times and really cold at other times. It makes the playoffs absolutely impossible to predict. Seeds are now set:

Playoffs

1) WJ - Bye
2) Lord Dracarys - Bye
3) JJ vs. 6) JL
4) BL vs. 5) Dunk 

Survived

Race - Safe by power ranking

Jaxomed

Mya, Fuentez, Jace in that order.

Good luck to the playoff teams. And to the Jaxomed teams and their efforts to save themselves.

 

Edited by Jaime L

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53 minutes ago, Jaime L said:

Final Power Rankings/Record/Points

1) Whiskeyjack - 78-39 (8-5) 2,045 points 
2) Lord Dracarys - 72-45 (8-5) 2.039 points 
3) JJ Lannister -70-47 (8-5) 2,009 points 
4) Jaime L - 66-51 (7-6) 2,071 points 
5) RaceBannon - 64-53 (7-6) 1,977 points 
6) Dunknegg - 62-55 (8-5) 1,891 points 
7) boiled leather - 60-57 (8-5) 1,941 points 

It's the cruel result of the unprecedented parity of this Experts season. There were 7 very good teams and no great ones. 7 won 7 games or more but no-one won more than 8 games which is something I've never seen before. 4 teams got over 2,000 points but no-one got to 2,100. Was a strange season where a bunch of teams went really hot at times and really cold at other times. It makes the playoffs absolutely impossible to predict. Seeds are now set:

 

I was wondering if there had ever been a season before with so many teams bunched so closely together.  I feel like if the season were longer it wouldn’t really produce a lot of separation either.

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On 11/27/2019 at 12:35 AM, Jace, Basilissa said:

GRREEEEAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

GGGGGGGGGGAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHAHAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!

AAAAARRRRRRRGGGGGGHHHHH

EEEEEAAAAAAARRRRRRRRRRRGGGGGGHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

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BL's team looking scary in the Wildcard round putting up a 195. Not much Dunk can do running into a buzz saw like that. JJ, thought you had me early Sunday. Then in the second half of the early games that machine that was cranking out points for you just stopped. Felt fortunate - gave me a chance to climb back into it.

Semis are now set:

(1) WJ vs. (4) BL
(2) Drac vs. (6) JL 

 

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10 hours ago, Jaime L said:

BL's team looking scary in the Wildcard round putting up a 195. Not much Dunk can do running into a buzz saw like that. 

AARP just called wanting it’s mascot back. :bowdown:

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As it's not a traditional feeder league, would winning A do anything for me retaining my place? I'm not going to whine and complain or anything, but I am compelled to ask and have arguments in my favor if the court decides upon deliberation.

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5 minutes ago, Jace, Basilissa said:

As it's not a traditional feeder league, would winning A do anything for me retaining my place? I'm not going to whine and complain or anything, but I am compelled to ask and have arguments in my favor if the court decides upon deliberation.

Pretty sure winning Westeros A would keep you in.

At this point, it's basically the same as B and C.

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17 hours ago, Jace, Basilissa said:

As it's not a traditional feeder league, would winning A do anything for me retaining my place? I'm not going to whine and complain or anything, but I am compelled to ask and have arguments in my favor if the court decides upon deliberation.

Yeah, it doesn't matter what league you win. Win one and you keep your spot. 

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