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rotting sea cow

Will be Littlefinger get busted by Illyrio?

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Illyrio has the stated goal of becoming Master of Coin. I don't think he really cares about it, his main goal is to put Aegon in the IT, after that he can die in peace, I guess.

However, he certainly is very well suited for that task and probably has in his hire a team of accountants to run his business. It wouldn't be a surprise if he becomes Master of Coin under Aegon VI

Now, we know that Littlefinger has been messing up with the Crown finances for years and hiding the facts through accounting juggling and shady business in a way that even Tyrion was unable to unknot, even if he was able to smell the rotting fish. Basically because Westerosi aristocracy do not understand money and think badly of anyone who look at these details.

Illyrio however comes a different culture and being the rich merchant he is, understands money better than the Westerosi and he may be able to uncover Littlefinger shenanigans. What he will do is of course another thing.  

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Could he bust Littlefinger by reviewing the crown's accounts? Possibly.

However, after the Battle of Fire it looks like Daenerys's armies are pointed towards Pentos, and if the Blackfyre theory is correct and Tyrion informs Daenerys, Illyrio may not be living long enough to do any forensic accounting.

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12 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

Illyrio has the stated goal of becoming Master of Coin. I don't think he really cares about it, his main goal is to put Aegon in the IT, after that he can die in peace, I guess.

He has said he is going to join the gang in KL - and if he is going to take an actual office and a seat on the Small Council Master of Coin looks as his obvious choice (people fantasizing about the distasteful 'cleaver scenario' can then fantasize about him going down like Rego Draz or Bartimos Celtigar).

I never thought about that previously - I expect since ADwD that Varys and Illyrio will be united in KL after Aegon's coronation to serve him together, but I never thought about offices.

12 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

However, he certainly is very well suited for that task and probably has in his hire a team of accountants to run his business.

I could even see him sell his estates - once Aegon rules as king he might even decide to leave Pentos for good.

12 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

Now, we know that Littlefinger has been messing up with the Crown finances for years and hiding the facts through accounting juggling and shady business in a way that even Tyrion was unable to unknot, even if he was able to smell the rotting fish. Basically because Westerosi aristocracy do not understand money and think badly of anyone who look at these details.

Illyrio however comes a different culture and being the rich merchant he is, understands money better than the Westerosi and he may be able to uncover Littlefinger shenanigans. What he will do is of course another thing.  

He certainly could do that - if that's still relevant at that point.

4 hours ago, Lluewhyn said:

Could he bust Littlefinger by reviewing the crown's accounts? Possibly.

However, after the Battle of Fire it looks like Daenerys's armies are pointed towards Pentos, and if the Blackfyre theory is correct and Tyrion informs Daenerys, Illyrio may not be living long enough to do any forensic accounting.

Even if they eventually move against Pentos - there is no way Illyrio is going to get 'surprised' by Dany's people in Pentos or is even still going to be there when Dany starts to move west. Aegon should take the Iron Throne in a couple of weeks, and Illyrio has announced he is going to join the gang there.

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Littlefinger is going to get brought down by Sansa and Illyrio is going to have his face melted by Dany after watching the Tattered Prince sack Pentos. Why will this happen? Because Tyrion is going to out Illyrio's fAegon gambit to his dragon queen that's why. Illyrio will never see the Seven Kingdoms again.

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45 minutes ago, Unknownfinger said:

Littlefinger is going to get brought down by Sansa and Illyrio is going to have his face melted by Dany after watching the Tattered Prince sack Pentos. Why will this happen? Because Tyrion is going to out Illyrio's fAegon gambit to his dragon queen that's why. Illyrio will never see the Seven Kingdoms again.

That is more or less a laughable scenario. Illyrio Mopatis is not going to be surprised by Dany's people. They are half a world away, and his lad is going to sit the Iron Throne in a fortnight. And then he will join him in the Red Keep and kiss his manse goodbye.

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Not sure why Illyrio would even need to uncover Littlefinger’s financial misdeeds. Varys surely knows more than well enough about Littlefinger’s shenanigans and i can’t see the two being on the same side in Aegon’s government.

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1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

That is more or less a laughable scenario. Illyrio Mopatis is not going to be surprised by Dany's people. They are half a world away, and his lad is going to sit the Iron Throne in a fortnight. And then he will join him in the Red Keep and kiss his manse goodbye.

He won't be surprised by Dany's advancing army but he will be surprised by the fact that Tyrion will be at her side and the fact that Tyrion has figured out what is up with fAegon. In fact, I think the idea of Tyrion using the art of surprise and his advanced knowledge of all the players on the board in order to manipulate Dany will be central to his heel turn in TWOW. We can most certainly look at Dany's arc in TWOW and how much ground her coalition will cover but I am most interested in how you think Illyrio's arc will play out if you feel like sharing?

Anyway, in AGOT Dany travels from Pentos to Lhazar with a stop in Vaes Dothrak so in TWOW Dany traveling to Vaes Dothrak to Pentos is doable with her standard 10 chapters or so even with a probable pit stop in Volantis to set the slaves free and burn in all down. The breaker of chains travelogue in TWOW of winter looks something like Dragonstone Hill--->Vaes Dothrak--->Meereen--->Volantis--->Pentos--->Kings Landing

I don't think one can overestimate how much damage Dany and Tyrion will do once she decides dragons plant no trees with Tyrion whispering in her ear so can get his vengeance on his family and Kings Landing.

As for Illyrio he's going to stay just where he is in an attempt to get Dany back in the fold. It ain't gonna work.

Edited by Unknownfinger

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2 hours ago, HelenaExMachina said:

Not sure why Illyrio would even need to uncover Littlefinger’s financial misdeeds. Varys surely knows more than well enough about Littlefinger’s shenanigans and i can’t see the two being on the same side in Aegon’s government.

Yeah, if they wanted to put down the little mockingbird Varys should have more than enough ammunition.

And our good Petyr should actually have no clue about the connection between Varys, Illyrio, and the lad. That could cause him to make a serious mistake...

2 hours ago, Unknownfinger said:

He won't be surprised by Dany's advancing army but he will be surprised by the fact that Tyrion will be at her side and the fact that Tyrion has figured out what is up with fAegon. In fact, I think the idea of Tyrion using the art of surprise and his advanced knowledge of all the players on the board in order to manipulate Dany will be central to his heel turn in TWOW. We can most certainly look at Dany's arc in TWOW and how much ground her coalition will cover but I am most interested in how you think Illyrio's arc will play out if you feel like sharing?

According to George's last report on Dany-Tyrion they will 'eventually' hook up in TWoW, so don't expect much in that department. Aegon and Illyrio might long be getting bored on the Iron Throne before Dany and Tyrion so much as meet.

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Anyway, in AGOT Dany travels from Pentos to Lhazar with a stop in Vaes Dothrak so in TWOW Dany traveling to Vaes Dothrak to Pentos is doable with her standard 10 chapters or so even with a probable pit stop in Volantis to set the slaves free and burn in all down. The breaker of chains travelogue in TWOW of winter looks something like Dragonstone Hill--->Vaes Dothrak--->Meereen--->Volantis--->Pentos--->Kings Landing

LOL, no. She will need some buildup for whatever she does in Vaes Dothrak - one, perhaps two, chapters journey and interaction with Khal Jhaqo and company. Then 1-2 chapters at the minimum for her at Vaes Dothrak to do whatever is going to lead to her taking over the Dothraki (for that, all/most of the khalasars have to be there, etc.). Subsequently a chapter setting up her future course - what is she going to do with the Dothraki now that she has them?

Then there are other loose ends to be tied up - she has to go to Qarth to destroy it and punish Xaro and the slavers there who declared war on her, she has to return to Slaver's Bay to tie up the loose ends there (the other guys there could have done a lot of work for her, of course, but it will be her decision what's done with the place in the end). Then there will have to be a meeting with Archmaester Marwyn to get her on track to go to Westeros at all.

Aegon is no good reason. Why shouldn't he have Westeros? If Dany becomes the god-queen of the Dothraki she can have the entire civilized world (i.e. Essos). There would be little to no need to go to the barbaric country she has never seen - especially not in winter when warfare should be both costly and difficult in Westeros. Let the dragons grow and put down the usurper and pretender Aegon next spring - if she cares about that at all.

All that should be more than enough to cover her chapters.

And Dany is never going to have ten chapters in TWoW. The book will contain chapters from all POVs again, which means the amount of chapters for every POV will be less than it was previously, even from those who are main characters. And Dany didn't get all that many in ADwD which greatly focused on her, Jon, and Tyrion in the first half of the book.

One can perhaps guess at 5-7 chapters for Dany. And half of them or more should see her dealing exclusively with the Dothraki situation. Afterwards she might have time enough to return to Slaver's Bay - or her finale is going to take place at Qarth. If she gets back to Slaver's Bay we will get a succession of chapters where she reconnects with the old gang and gets to know the new gang - Tyrion, Moqorro, Victarion (if he is still around), Marwyn, the Volantenes, etc.

There is a chance that Dany gets more mobile as a dragonrider, but her and Drogon are never going the threaten Pentos.

The time when a character could travel half a continent in just a couple of chapters are long gone. That happened only in AGoT when there were very few POVs.

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As for Illyrio he's going to stay just where he is in an attempt to get Dany back in the fold. It ain't gonna work.

No, Illyrio is going to decide that the dragon queen can stay dead. They will believe Daenerys Targaryen is dead (and even before that - they will conclude she is no longer of any use because she has married some Ghiscari slaver) and then they will make other plans for Aegon - plans involving Arianne Martell (or perhaps even Sansa Stark).

If Aegon gains the Iron Throne without any help from Dany and her dragons, they will conclude that the girl is not just expendable but actually a threat now. And they would be right. If there is going to be a war between Aegon and Daenerys it will be because Aegon's people will throw the first stone - Illyrio is not going to try to sweet-talk Dany, he is going to try to kill her. And I've said it for a long time - I think Strong Belwas is going to try to kill her, possibly disfiguring her, severely injuring her, or killing one of her close friends (Selmy, Jorah, Missandei, Irri, Jhiqui, etc.).

This kind of thing is going to cause Daenerys to turn against Illyrio. Not Tyrion's speculation or the Tattered Prince's desires. Illyrio still is the guy who gave her Drogo and her dragon eggs - he created the Mother of Dragons and she has not yet forgotten that. Something severe has to happen for her to change her mind on Illyrio.

Edited by Lord Varys

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@Lord Varys

I'm more less on the same page than you here, except for two things, i don't think Aegon is going to become swiftly, an assured King i mean, if Stannis wins the North, all he had to do is wait for Massey, with the power of the Iron Bank, Stannis is a legit threat to anyone, the one i see falling easy against Young G is Euron, if Stannis plays his cards well, he won't fall easily, because he is def falling, by the time he falls.

I don't think they are going to throw Dany to the garbage, Dany is a powerful card, and even after Stannis is defeated, they need ti make sure the boy and his House aren't  getting Robert-ed  again and Dany and her dragons is what they need.

Marriages can be set aside or annulled, or the hubbie can always die, i think Dany will actually throw the first stone, she is no buying the whole Aegon thing and after raining fire all over Essos, she is coming for Westeros and by the time that happens, Aegon is already married and with issue and with that their chance of peace, i don't think no one is going to think of her as expendable.

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7 hours ago, HelenaExMachina said:

Not sure why Illyrio would even need to uncover Littlefinger’s financial misdeeds. Varys surely knows more than well enough about Littlefinger’s shenanigans and i can’t see the two being on the same side in Aegon’s government.

Even Varys cannot know everything and whilst he may guess that Littlefinger has been doing mischief with the finances, he may lack proof until he looks in detail the books, if he is able to understand them.  Littlefinger shenanigans have been mostly helpful for Varys plans, albeit at times have been at odds with intermediate goals. See Ned death.

I agree that it will be Sansa who will bring down Littlefinger, maybe with the help of Ayra. But, for historical purposes some one needs to uncover the financial misdeeds. Who's better than Illyrio?

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9 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Even if they eventually move against Pentos - there is no way Illyrio is going to get 'surprised' by Dany's people in Pentos or is even still going to be there when Dany starts to move west. Aegon should take the Iron Throne in a couple of weeks, and Illyrio has announced he is going to join the gang there.

I have no doubt they are going to move against Pentos but I agree that Illyrio is unlikely to be found there. I believe that by the end of Dance, he is tremendously busy in helping in any possible way Aegon invasion. Likely buying food from all across Essos, contacting sellsails and maybe additional sellswords, contacting friends in Essos and Westeros who can help, maybe some merchants in Gulltown? And of course containing any threat to Aegon. Even Dany.

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7 hours ago, frenin said:

@Lord Varys

I'm more less on the same page than you here, except for two things, i don't think Aegon is going to become swiftly, an assured King i mean, if Stannis wins the North, all he had to do is wait for Massey, with the power of the Iron Bank, Stannis is a legit threat to anyone, the one i see falling easy against Young G is Euron, if Stannis plays his cards well, he won't fall easily, because he is def falling, by the time he falls.

Aegon is likely going to sit the Iron Throne long before any sellsword from Essos has even decided to join Stannis' cause, much less traveled to Westeros. And Stannis actually plans to use those men to man the Wall, not to march down south. That could change, of course, but at this point we have no reason to believe it will.

7 hours ago, frenin said:

I don't think they are going to throw Dany to the garbage, Dany is a powerful card, and even after Stannis is defeated, they need ti make sure the boy and his House aren't  getting Robert-ed  again and Dany and her dragons is what they need.

No, Dany will be a threat if Aegon is already king when she moves west - if he didn't need her to take the throne, there is no need to share power with her or include her and her people into his government. Especially if both Aegon and Dany are (still) married by that time.

7 hours ago, frenin said:

Marriages can be set aside or annulled, or the hubbie can always die, i think Dany will actually throw the first stone, she is no buying the whole Aegon thing and after raining fire all over Essos, she is coming for Westeros and by the time that happens, Aegon is already married and with issue and with that their chance of peace, i don't think no one is going to think of her as expendable.

Dany thinks about her nephew Aegon in ADwD, pondering the possibility that she might have married him rather than Viserys had he lived. Once she hears he is alive - and has been groomed to rule by Illyrio, the guy who gave her the dragon eggs - he first reaction won't be that she was betrayed - just as she didn't think she was betrayed by the secret marriage pact the Martells made with Willem Darry which they kept from Viserys III. She knows that secrecy is key when you are surrounded by enemies.

And while Tyrion may have 'suspicions' that Aegon isn't the real deal he has no proof whatsoever - and Dany has no reason to believe this disfigured, ugly dwarf who is the son and brother of her family's worst enemies. I mean, Jon Connington is the foster father of Prince Aegon, and Dany knows this guy was one of the best friends of her brother and served her own father as Hand for a time.

Even if Tyrion and the Tattered Prince (who might know things about Varys and Illyrio's past) and Selmy convince her that it is not that likely that this Aegon fellow is truly Rhaegar's son then it would still be not an unsound idea to combine their forces and rule Westeros together - Dany would be willing to entertain such a notion, especially if she is not all that keen to go to Westeros (which she isn't if you reread her chapters in ADwD).

To go from there to a brutal war crucial things have to happen - and the way to escalate things on Dany's side would be to try to kill her or to make her believe Aegon and his people want to see her dead.

5 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

I have no doubt they are going to move against Pentos but I agree that Illyrio is unlikely to be found there. I believe that by the end of Dance, he is tremendously busy in helping in any possible way Aegon invasion. Likely buying food from all across Essos, contacting sellsails and maybe additional sellswords, contacting friends in Essos and Westeros who can help, maybe some merchants in Gulltown? And of course containing any threat to Aegon. Even Dany.

I'm pretty sure he will be there for Aegon's coronation - and we should see that event in TWoW. Either around the middle of the book or - if George takes his time - near the end.

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@Lord Varys

 

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Aegon is likely going to sit the Iron Throne long before any sellsword from Essos has even decided to join Stannis' cause, much less traveled to Westeros. And Stannis actually plans to use those men to man the Wall, not to march down south. That could change, of course, but at this point we have no reason to believe it will.

Oh, he'll be King, but his position will be far from secure for a time, Stannis doesn't strike me as suicidal, the man knows that he can't take the Throne only with the Northmen, he may very well be suicidal, that's why i said that if he plays well his cards and waits for reinforcements, and IF he's not already dead, he's not going down easily.

 

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No, Dany will be a threat if Aegon is already king when she moves west - if he didn't need her to take the throne, there is no need to share power with her or include her and her people into his government. Especially if both Aegon and Dany are (still) married by that time.

Take the Throne and maintain the Throne are two very differents things, the latter tends to be far more difficult than the first and dragons gives Dany and Aegon a legitimacy, he can't achieve by himself even if everyone thinks of him as Rhaegar's heir.

The only thing that changes is the power balance, with Aegon in the IT and coming "home" they are equals, in the other way, Aegon would always be the beggar, Dany is coming to Westeros, whether they want it or not, no one doubts of her lineage and she has awaken the dragons, turning Dany into an enemy, is unnecesary and folly.

I don't see Loraq surviving whatever is happeing in Meeren but even if so, marriages can be set aside and setting aside or annuling whatever marriage they might have, for the dragon queen is the best option, if the first reaction they have with Dany is that she's a threat instead of a bless, they're idiots.

 

 

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Dany thinks about her nephew Aegon in ADwD, pondering the possibility that she might have married him rather than Viserys had he lived. Once she hears he is alive - and has been groomed to rule by Illyrio, the guy who gave her the dragon eggs - he first reaction won't be that she was betrayed - just as she didn't think she was betrayed by the secret marriage pact the Martells made with Willem Darry which they kept from Viserys III. She knows that secrecy is key when you are surrounded by enemies.

And while Tyrion may have 'suspicions' that Aegon isn't the real deal he has no proof whatsoever - and Dany has no reason to believe this disfigured, ugly dwarf who is the son and brother of her family's worst enemies. I mean, Jon Connington is the foster father of Prince Aegon, and Dany knows this guy was one of the best friends of her brother and served her own father as Hand for a time.

Even if Tyrion and the Tattered Prince (who might know things about Varys and Illyrio's past) and Selmy convince her that it is not that likely that this Aegon fellow is truly Rhaegar's son then it would still be not an unsound idea to combine their forces and rule Westeros together - Dany would be willing to entertain such a notion, especially if she is not all that keen to go to Westeros (which she isn't if you reread her chapters in ADwD).

To go from there to a brutal war crucial things have to happen - and the way to escalate things on Dany's side would be to try to kill her or to make her believe Aegon and his people want to see her dead.

 

Her first reaction would be skepticism, i think, to good to be true, and who knows, she might want the Throne all by herself and the idea of sharing the cheers is not good enough for her.

That depends of whether Tyrion is able to gain the girl's trust enough to put some sense, and venon, in her, as delighted as she might be with the idea, a bizarre the Prince and the Pauper is enough for anyone to have second thoughts.

And if Dany believes Young G is not Rhaegar's son, she is killing him, i don't think Dany joining forces with some whore's son, trying to replace the position of Dany's hero, if Dany has a sheer suspicion Young G is not Rhaegar's, that won't sit well and is a very good causus belli to start a brutal civil about.

 

 

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12 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

 

Then there are other loose ends to be tied up - she has to go to Qarth to destroy it and punish Xaro and the slavers there who declared war on her, she has to return to Slaver's Bay to tie up the loose ends there (the other guys there could have done a lot of work for her, of course, but it will be her decision what's done with the place in the end). Then there will have to be a meeting with Archmaester Marwyn to get her on track to go to Westeros at all.

And Dany is never going to have ten chapters in TWoW. The book will contain chapters from all POVs again, which means the amount of chapters for every POV will be less than it was previously, even from those who are main characters. And Dany didn't get all that many in ADwD which greatly focused on her, Jon, and Tyrion in the first half of the book.

One can perhaps guess at 5-7 chapters for Dany. And half of them or more should see her dealing exclusively with the Dothraki situation. Afterwards she might have time enough to return to Slaver's Bay - or her finale is going to take place at Qarth. If she gets back to Slaver's Bay we will get a succession of chapters where she reconnects with the old gang and gets to know the new gang - Tyrion, Moqorro, Victarion (if he is still around), Marwyn, the Volantenes, etc.

There is a chance that Dany gets more mobile as a dragonrider, but her and Drogon are never going the threaten Pentos.

The time when a character could travel half a continent in just a couple of chapters are long gone. That happened only in AGoT when there were very few POVs.

No, Illyrio is going to decide that the dragon queen can stay dead. They will believe Daenerys Targaryen is dead (and even before that - they will conclude she is no longer of any use because she has married some Ghiscari slaver) and then they will make other plans for Aegon - plans involving Arianne Martell (or perhaps even Sansa Stark).

If Aegon gains the Iron Throne without any help from Dany and her dragons, they will conclude that the girl is not just expendable but actually a threat now. And they would be right. If there is going to be a war between Aegon and Daenerys it will be because Aegon's people will throw the first stone - Illyrio is not going to try to sweet-talk Dany, he is going to try to kill her. And I've said it for a long time - I think Strong Belwas is going to try to kill her, possibly disfiguring her, severely injuring her, or killing one of her close friends (Selmy, Jorah, Missandei, Irri, Jhiqui, etc.).

This kind of thing is going to cause Daenerys to turn against Illyrio. Not Tyrion's speculation or the Tattered Prince's desires. Illyrio still is the guy who gave her Drogo and her dragon eggs - he created the Mother of Dragons and she has not yet forgotten that. Something severe has to happen for her to change her mind on Illyrio.

5

There are some narrative issues with it playing out like this not the least of which is sidelining Tyrion during the endgame which is not going to happen I don't think. Tyrion the archmanipulator has been set up from the start of the series and the payoff will be as de facto Hand to the dragon queen when they both take their, perhaps temporary, heel turns and what Dany wants at the end ADWD is to embrace violence as her birthright in order to destroy the slavers, its Tyrion that wants revenge not Dany. It's Tyrion that wants to "rape and kill" his sister and that if KL had but one head he would chop it off. Tyrion needs Dany to go west so that is what she is going to do. A lot of pages took it to this point so there is no way that is getting set aside for another trip to Quarth. Another point about Tyrion is that ADWD had a lot of POV chapters and yet he did travel "half a continent" while in slave chains no less so I think he will be able to make the reverse journey at Danys' side in TWOW.  Dany isn't going back to Quarth she is going to embrace Fire & Blood in order to free the slaves in Volantis and Pentos and then pond jump over to KL to take what she thinks his hers by rights.

By the end of TWOW we will have added Vics fleet, the Dothraki, the windblown and another POV character to Team Dany so its not crazy that she splits her forces and takes Volantis by sea and Pentos by land but again I do think Dany can keep her armies together and take them both before the last page of TWOW

Not a big a deal as sidelining Tyrion but the Dany goes west not east theory also has to ignore the Tattered Prince. Dany has previously said she would never destroy Pentos because Illyrio is her friend and was kind to her. When she finds out about fAegon from Tyrion, and while the boys' parentage may be in doubt there is no doubt the boy is real and was backed by Illyrio which will be enough to piss of Dany,  she is going to give the TP exactly what he wants.  Like Tyrion, the TP is there to help Dany along her road to increased violence.

One another issue I have with this theory is that if Dany is so focused on revenge, enough to haul here armies to Quarth for sweet justice, how is Marwyn going to get her "on track" to do anything? We know that Marwyn helped train Mirri Maz Duur and that piece of information was given to us for a reason. My guess is that Tyrion and Marwyn will be the devil and angel on Danys shoulders with Tyrion advising Dany to join the war in southern Westeros while Marwyn argues to go north and fight the Others. Tyrion will use the MMD Marwyn connection to get Dany to mistrust the Mage and get the dragon army to KL. 

I think GRMM wants to end the sixth book in his ASOIAF with the wall coming down in the north and KL getting dragon nuked in the south. Now that the battle of ice and the battle of fire are going to start TWOW its all very narratively symmetrical. 

 

 

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9 hours ago, frenin said:

@Lord Varys

 

Oh, he'll be King, but his position will be far from secure for a time, Stannis doesn't strike me as suicidal, the man knows that he can't take the Throne only with the Northmen, he may very well be suicidal, that's why i said that if he plays well his cards and waits for reinforcements, and IF he's not already dead, he's not going down easily.

Stannis' plan right now seems to be win the crown and the hearts of the people by saving them from the Others. That implies he would not open another front in the south after he has secured the North. However, that could change when he learns about Aegon (and Daenerys). At this point we have no reason to believe he will use his sellswords to attack the guys in the south.

9 hours ago, frenin said:

Take the Throne and maintain the Throne are two very differents things, the latter tends to be far more difficult than the first and dragons gives Dany and Aegon a legitimacy, he can't achieve by himself even if everyone thinks of him as Rhaegar's heir.

Dragons can also be demonized - just ask the Shepherd on his view on the monsters.

Dany is a woman which means she should not/cannot/must not rule over men. Dany is the daughter of the Mad King and a foreigner while Aegon is the son (nominally) of the beloved Rhaegar and was brought up by Westerosi teachers.

While Aegon does not sit the throne an alliance with Dany makes sense - if he takes the throne without her he doesn't really need her anymore. And since she has three dragons and can only ride one at a time he certainly could claim one of the others. He would only try to kill her, not her riderless dragons.

9 hours ago, frenin said:

The only thing that changes is the power balance, with Aegon in the IT and coming "home" they are equals, in the other way, Aegon would always be the beggar, Dany is coming to Westeros, whether they want it or not, no one doubts of her lineage and she has awaken the dragons, turning Dany into an enemy, is unnecesary and folly.

It certainly will be folly - but they will still do it because they likely think they can kill her before she becomes a real threat.

9 hours ago, frenin said:

I don't see Loraq surviving whatever is happeing in Meeren but even if so, marriages can be set aside and setting aside or annuling whatever marriage they might have, for the dragon queen is the best option, if the first reaction they have with Dany is that she's a threat instead of a bless, they're idiots.

Hizdahr is just a part of the problem - Aegon will start looking for a wife of his own once he learns that Dany married Hizdahr and is not likely to come to Westeros at all (her taking a Ghiscari husband implies she does not want to leave Slaver's Bay). And once the news about her alleged death travels to Westeros (which is not going to be corrected for weeks or even months, depending how long Dany hangs out in the Dothraki Sea) he will have no choice but to look for a bride in Westeros to solidify his power there - which is why he is going to marry Arianne.

And Arianne is going to push him against Dany as soon as she learns that Dany is responsible for her brother's death. She is going to blame her for that.

But Dany might take another consort while she is in Vaes Dothrak - she could marry another khal, say, or later Daario after her return to Slaver's Bay.

9 hours ago, frenin said:

Her first reaction would be skepticism, i think, to good to be true, and who knows, she might want the Throne all by herself and the idea of sharing the cheers is not good enough for her.

In a scenario where they could still marry each other this should be no problem. They are aunt and niece in an incestuous family. Which is why there have to be reasons - like there were with Rhaenyra and Aegon II - that the conflict cannot be resolved by an arranged marriage. And if Aegon is already king when Dany starts to move west there should be little to no reason on his side to offer to share power with her.

9 hours ago, frenin said:

That depends of whether Tyrion is able to gain the girl's trust enough to put some sense, and venon, in her, as delighted as she might be with the idea, a bizarre the Prince and the Pauper is enough for anyone to have second thoughts.

Dany has, at this point, essentially no reason to trust Tyrion. It should be no easy process for him to gain her trust.

9 hours ago, frenin said:

And if Dany believes Young G is not Rhaegar's son, she is killing him, i don't think Dany joining forces with some whore's son, trying to replace the position of Dany's hero, if Dany has a sheer suspicion Young G is not Rhaegar's, that won't sit well and is a very good causus belli to start a brutal civil about.

Even if Dany were to believe Aegon is not her nephew - that's not necessarily a reason not to enter into a political marriage with him. She also married Hizdahr to keep the peace. There must be more for violence to escalate.

My guess is that we will see some sort of attempt to settle things during negotiations while Dany is still in western Essos (Volantis or the Three Daughters) - with Tyrion and Haldon trying to reach some sort of compromise. And then things are going to happen that make that impossible - something like an assassination attempt on Daenerys during those negotiations.

Dany needs a reason to loath/hate Aegon, personally. It is not enough if she learns things about Varys and Illyrio and their past - they might be the people behind Aegon, but they are not Aegon. Yet Aegon would be the king Dany has to depose.

7 hours ago, Unknownfinger said:

I think GRMM wants to end the sixth book in his ASOIAF with the wall coming down in the north and KL getting dragon nuked in the south. Now that the battle of ice and the battle of fire are going to start TWOW its all very narratively symmetrical.

Sorry, you are putting the cart before the horse. If you speculate about how far TWoW is going to take the story you have to go chapter by chapter, you have to count the POVs and you have to guess how many chapters the core characters are realistically going to get in a book that's not going to have more than 1,000 pages in print.

And that's simply not much progress.

Especially if you keep in mind that the books grow more and more complex. George is not suddenly throwing out complexity in favor of jumping ahead in the time line. He has had given the Ghiscari a very detailed plot. That has to be resolved properly, as has the entire slavery plot. And that's not going to happen in just a couple of chapters.

I agree that various cities can be taken off-screen, especially if Dany controls multiple khalasars. But Pentos - if she takes that city - is going to be the least important city. She would only consider doing that after she has returned to Slaver's Bay and been convinced somehow by the Tattered Prince.

But even if that happened - she would first move against Volantis and the Three Daughters.

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The money mismanagement was the fault of Robert and Jon Arryn.  Littlefinger was the only one who understood finances and kept funding Robert's excesses.  The Magister might thank him instead because he helped avenge Aerys Targaryen by destroying the Baratheons, Lannisters, Starks, Arryn, and Tully.  Those were the houses who led the rebellion against the right rulers of Westeros, the Targaryens.  I have nothing against Littlefinger so far.  That can change but for now he has removed most of the obstacles to a Targaryen restoration.  If he could chuck Sansa from the moondoor it would be a bonus to us.  

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LF has been embezzling money for years. From what I understand from these books no one thinks that's a crime and criminality and corruption are assumed because no laws about it. 

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19 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

I agree that it will be Sansa who will bring down Littlefinger, maybe with the help of Ayra. But, for historical purposes some one needs to uncover the financial misdeeds. Who's better than Illyrio?

You know what, I could see this. I don't think the Stark girls are quite experienced enough to solve the dispute between the IB and the Crown and LF's complicated role in that. We know Dany isn't going to hit the books either. 

 

 

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14 hours ago, Rose of Red Lake said:

You know what, I could see this. I don't think the Stark girls are quite experienced enough to solve the dispute between the IB and the Crown and LF's complicated role in that. We know Dany isn't going to hit the books either.

Who said that the Starks girls are going to uncover the origin of IT finances troubles? Littlefinger has many other crimes to answer for. That's why there must be someone to uncover that part of the story.

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17 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

If you speculate about how far TWoW is going to take the story you have to go chapter by chapter, you have to count the POVs and you have to guess how many chapters the core characters are realistically going to get in a book that's not going to have more than 1,000 pages in print. 

I had to wait for a interview with some bureaucrats some time ago. Long and boring. I started to count how many chapters will be needed to solve the cliffhangers from Feast&Dance and I came up with they were between 25-30, IIRC. That's about 1/3 or more of a book, and just giving Dany one chapter to deal with Khal Jahqo before we get into unknown territory, not counting Arianne meeting Aegon, etc. So, indeed, unless TWOW is a very long book, split maybe in two volumes, we are not going to get very far.

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