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rotting sea cow

Will be Littlefinger get busted by Illyrio?

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7 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

I had to wait for a interview with some bureaucrats some time ago. Long and boring. I started to count how many chapters will be needed to solve the cliffhangers from Feast&Dance and I came up with they were between 25-30, IIRC. That's about 1/3 or more of a book, and just giving Dany one chapter to deal with Khal Jahqo before we get into unknown territory, not counting Arianne meeting Aegon, etc. So, indeed, unless TWOW is a very long book, split maybe in two volumes, we are not going to get very far.

Indeed.

And one can go back and start to look how long it took Dany to start a new story in ADwD. The first two chapters still deal with the conclusion of the ASoS - settling in Meereen, deciding for good that she is going to stay for years, etc.

She is not going to magically be transformed into the god-empress of the Dothraki. That is going to be a process. She may not even have a plan yet, but we can be very sure that there are going to be multiple people opposing her - and even if a majority of the dosh khaleen believe she is the Stallion (and that's a big if) then there are going to be some trials, etc. to prove that.

And afterwards she has to decide what she is going to do now that she rules Drogo's people. It is not a given that she is going to decide to take them to Westeros as soon as possible. She could ponder conquering all of Western Essos, and there could be people pushing her to use the dragon(s) to cross the Bones and take on the fortress cities, the Jogos Nhai or even the Yi Tish.

Meereen and Slaver's Bay are going to look very insignificant once she rules all the Dothraki - as will Westeros which she never even saw.

And, yeah, depending how many chapters the Stannis/North/Wall thing is going to need chances are we will be a third or half into TWoW before the two battles are resolved - because we have to assume that there is going to be the occasional other chapter shoved beneath those main plot threads... But even if that weren't the case - George would then need to take a break to continue the other plots after he has used 10-15 chapters to deal with Meereen and Winterfell.

If Aegon were to take the Iron Throne only in the second half of the book - or at the end - then progress in all the other plots where people have to travel vast distances (and come up with reasons why they want to go where they are going) is going to take much longer.

It might actually be that Dany is not even going to return to Slaver's Bay in TWoW - although she might hook up with Tyrion if he claims a dragon and flies to Vaes Dothrak.

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@Lord Varys

 

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Stannis' plan right now seems to be win the crown and the hearts of the people by saving them from the Others. That implies he would not open another front in the south after he has secured the North. However, that could change when he learns about Aegon (and Daenerys). At this point we have no reason to believe he will use his sellswords to attack the guys in the south.

He commands Massey to send him sellswords and to send them to him by Eastwatch, he's using those sellswords to take the Throne.

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 "Your place is where I say it is.  I have five hundred swords as good as you, or better, but you have a pleasing manner and a glib tongue, and those will be of more use to me at Braavos then here.  The Iron Bank has opened its coffers to me.  You will collect their coin and hire ships and sellswords.  A company of good repute, if you can find one.  The Golden Company would be my first choice, if they are not already under contract.  Seek for them in the Disputed Lands, if need be.  But first hire as many swords as you can find in Braavos, and send them to me by way of Eastwatch.  Archers as well, we need more bows."

 

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Dragons can also be demonized - just ask the Shepherd on his view on the monsters.

Dany is a woman which means she should not/cannot/must not rule over men. Dany is the daughter of the Mad King and a foreigner while Aegon is the son (nominally) of the beloved Rhaegar and was brought up by Westerosi teachers.

While Aegon does not sit the throne an alliance with Dany makes sense - if he takes the throne without her he doesn't really need her anymore. And since she has three dragons and can only ride one at a time he certainly could claim one of the others. He would only try to kill her, not her riderless dragons.

  • When dragons had come to life 170 years later, i find it unlikely, Daenerys is the Conqueror reborn.
  • Maybe, or maybe not, she is also a full Targ whose birth is indubitable, Aegon didn't need Westerosi teachers to win Westeros,, neither will Dany.
  • He does need her, to maintain the Throne  and to eliminate any doubt about his lineage, that is if when she comes to Westeros, she's still having riderless dragons and the Aegon and his cronies are sure the boy can approach to them and tame them.  

 

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It certainly will be folly - but they will still do it because they likely think they can kill her before she becomes a real threat.

But she can become and ally pretty easily, the idea that they just decide to kill her doesn't ring unless Aegon has fallen in love of his bride or had a son.

 

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Hizdahr is just a part of the problem - Aegon will start looking for a wife of his own once he learns that Dany married Hizdahr and is not likely to come to Westeros at all (her taking a Ghiscari husband implies she does not want to leave Slaver's Bay). And once the news about her alleged death travels to Westeros (which is not going to be corrected for weeks or even months, depending how long Dany hangs out in the Dothraki Sea) he will have no choice but to look for a bride in Westeros to solidify his power there - which is why he is going to marry Arianne.

And Arianne is going to push him against Dany as soon as she learns that Dany is responsible for her brother's death. She is going to blame her for that.

But Dany might take another consort while she is in Vaes Dothrak - she could marry another khal, say, or later Daario after her return to Slaver's Bay.

Yet there is no reason to not annull said marriages and Dorne is a problem but Dorne on its own isn't as valuable as Dany.

 

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In a scenario where they could still marry each other this should be no problem. They are aunt and niece in an incestuous family. Which is why there have to be reasons - like there were with Rhaenyra and Aegon II - that the conflict cannot be resolved by an arranged marriage. And if Aegon is already king when Dany starts to move west there should be little to no reason on his side to offer to share power with her.

If Dany don't believe him, there is no marry coming soon, he is an usurper.

Dragons, a huge army, people doubting him, Baratheon loyalists, i can see a lot of reasons why Dany is useful after Aegon is king.

 

 

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Even if Dany were to believe Aegon is not her nephew - that's not necessarily a reason not to enter into a political marriage with him. She also married Hizdahr to keep the peace. There must be more for violence to escalate.

It's actually a pretty big reason, there is some random who is passing as the heir of her beloved Rhaegar, she is not having that.

Loraq wasn't saying he is the rightful heir of the Throne was he?? If Dany believes Aegon is fake, she is going after his ass and that is a very good reason for a civil war.

 

 

On 9/15/2019 at 3:34 AM, The Lord of the Crossing said:

The money mismanagement was the fault of Robert and Jon Arryn.  Littlefinger was the only one who understood finances and kept funding Robert's excesses.  The Magister might thank him instead because he helped avenge Aerys Targaryen by destroying the Baratheons, Lannisters, Starks, Arryn, and Tully.  Those were the houses who led the rebellion against the right rulers of Westeros, the Targaryens.  I have nothing against Littlefinger so far.  That can change but for now he has removed most of the obstacles to a Targaryen restoration.  If he could chuck Sansa from the moondoor it would be a bonus to us.  

Lmao.

 

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That can happen if Magister Ilyrio comes to Westeros with more power than Petyr Baelish.  The Golden Company and Dorne against The Vale.  I would love to see war between the forces of Aegon and Arrianne versus the forces of Littlefinger and Sansa.  Outing corruption will be low on Ilyrio's priorities.  Beating the Littlefinger and his minions (Sansa and Harry) will be his top priority.  

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On 9/13/2019 at 7:10 AM, rotting sea cow said:

Illyrio has the stated goal of becoming Master of Coin. I don't think he really cares about it, his main goal is to put Aegon in the IT, after that he can die in peace, I guess.

However, he certainly is very well suited for that task and probably has in his hire a team of accountants to run his business. It wouldn't be a surprise if he becomes Master of Coin under Aegon VI

Now, we know that Littlefinger has been messing up with the Crown finances for years and hiding the facts through accounting juggling and shady business in a way that even Tyrion was unable to unknot, even if he was able to smell the rotting fish. Basically because Westerosi aristocracy do not understand money and think badly of anyone who look at these details.

Illyrio however comes a different culture and being the rich merchant he is, understands money better than the Westerosi and he may be able to uncover Littlefinger shenanigans. What he will do is of course another thing.  

I think there is a better than average chance that Littlefinger is working for Illyrio. The convo in the dragon room shows us that Varys does not know "what game Littlefinger is playing" despite the fact that he knows why Cat snatched Tyrion off the kings road (the dagger, which Varys may or may not know is a lie), and both he and Illyrio know that he is mucking with the finances of the realm they hope to seize one day. While it is bad enough that the Master of Whisperers, who knows the secrets of virtually everyone else in the capital, does not know what LF is up to, neither of them seem particularly distressed by the fact that they have this huge blind spot when it comes to LF -- who, after all, is the very man who is rushing the kingdom into war far sooner than either of them would like. At the very least, Illyrio should be telling Varys that he better find out what game Littlefinger is playing . . . unless, of course, he already knows.

And then we have an entirely new possibility to play with: Illyrio knows what LF is doing, in fact he has been bankrolling him ever since Gulltown, making it seem like LF is a financial wizard when all he's really been doing is putting the crown deeper and deeper into debt. When the crown defaults, Illyrio steps in with his own king and declares those debts are not the responsibility of the new dynasty. At the same time, have LF pull is account at the Iron Bank, which the bank probably will not be able to cover do to the money they've lost on the crown, Stannis, plus the hit it takes from the disruption of the global slave trade -- which affects all trade, not just slaves. Then Illyrio gets to sit back and watch the IB collapse when all of its depositors scramble to withdraw their money. Ultimately, this throws the Braavosi economy into the toilet, and Pentos will be able to shred the peace treaty it signed with Braavos 90 years ago (despite winning the war) that basically disarmed Pentos and barred it from the slave trade.

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On 9/15/2019 at 9:41 PM, Lord Varys said:

Indeed.

Notice that when I made the count, I was very conservative of what events they would cover. Indeed the battles took at least 10 chapters and the rest of the PoV the rest. And it is still a 1/3 of ADWD sized book.

On 9/15/2019 at 9:41 PM, Lord Varys said:

And one can go back and start to look how long it took Dany to start a new story in ADwD. The first two chapters still deal with the conclusion of the ASoS - settling in Meereen, deciding for good that she is going to stay for years, etc.

She is not going to magically be transformed into the god-empress of the Dothraki. That is going to be a process. She may not even have a plan yet, but we can be very sure that there are going to be multiple people opposing her - and even if a majority of the dosh khaleen believe she is the Stallion (and that's a big if) then there are going to be some trials, etc. to prove that.

I have the zero evidence theory that the Dosh Khaleen sent Khal Jhaqo to retrieve Dany. Just because it might easy things.

On 9/15/2019 at 9:41 PM, Lord Varys said:

And afterwards she has to decide what she is going to do now that she rules Drogo's people. It is not a given that she is going to decide to take them to Westeros as soon as possible. She could ponder conquering all of Western Essos, and there could be people pushing her to use the dragon(s) to cross the Bones and take on the fortress cities, the Jogos Nhai or even the Yi Tish.

I don't think she will conquer the Jogos Nhai or Yi Tish, but Qarth could be the first target because of the cultural significance for the Dothraki and the important for the Essos wide economy. But this may wreck the already complicated timelines.

 

On 9/15/2019 at 9:41 PM, Lord Varys said:

Meereen and Slaver's Bay are going to look very insignificant once she rules all the Dothraki - as will Westeros which she never even saw.

Yeah, I agree, it may well be that she won't come back to Slaver's Bay too soon. Which is btw hinted by GRRM's comment that "Dany and Tyrion spends much of the book apart".

On 9/15/2019 at 9:41 PM, Lord Varys said:

And, yeah, depending how many chapters the Stannis/North/Wall thing is going to need chances are we will be a third or half into TWoW before the two battles are resolved - because we have to assume that there is going to be the occasional other chapter shoved beneath those main plot threads... But even if that weren't the case - George would then need to take a break to continue the other plots after he has used 10-15 chapters to deal with Meereen and Winterfell.

Well, this is for another thread, but as I said above I was very conservative and minimalist in the number of chapter needed and it is still a lot. Just think that we have 20 alive PoVs and each of them have stuff to do. That's already 20 chapters! Repeat the few already involved in the battles and you get 30 chapters, easily. ASOS, had 82 chapters, including Prologue (chapter 0) and Epilogue.

 

On 9/15/2019 at 9:41 PM, Lord Varys said:

If Aegon were to take the Iron Throne only in the second half of the book - or at the end - then progress in all the other plots where people have to travel vast distances (and come up with reasons why they want to go where they are going) is going to take much longer.

Well, First. Number of chapters != Time span because of the above. The 20 current PoV are doing stuff almost simultaneously and consuming pages, whether the time that passed during their chapters is half an hour or many weeks. 

Second, I think the timeline coordination is the major problem that GRRM has with this book. There are basically three events that need to be coordinated carefully.

1) When Aegon takes the IT

2) When Dany sets wings for Westeros

3) When the Wall falls

I don't think that Aegon will take the IT and govern for too long whilst Dany is off sacking cities in Essos for a year or two. I don't think that Aegon will sit in the IT for more than half a year and probably less, which also needs btw coordinated with the rest of the PoV timelines.

Similarly, I don't think the war between Aegon and Dany will last too long and might be interrupted by the fall of the Wall. That's I think the Wall falls not too long after Dany arrives to Westeros.

And again, you need to give the rest of the PoV and big actors something to do in the meanwhile. To illustrate the problem, Euron has been raiding the coasts of the Reach for an awful long time without going for any big target. He is still waiting for the Redwyne fleet. Davos sailed a long time ago to Skagos and (as far as we know) not returned with Rickon. Etc.

 

 

 

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19 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

I think there is a better than average chance that Littlefinger is working for Illyrio. The convo in the dragon room shows us that Varys does not know "what game Littlefinger is playing" despite the fact that he knows why Cat snatched Tyrion off the kings road (the dagger, which Varys may or may not know is a lie), and both he and Illyrio know that he is mucking with the finances of the realm they hope to seize one day. While it is bad enough that the Master of Whisperers, who knows the secrets of virtually everyone else in the capital, does not know what LF is up to, neither of them seem particularly distressed by the fact that they have this huge blind spot when it comes to LF -- who, after all, is the very man who is rushing the kingdom into war far sooner than either of them would like. At the very least, Illyrio should be telling Varys that he better find out what game Littlefinger is playing . . . unless, of course, he already knows. 

Whilst is true that Littlefinger actions have been sometimes at odds with Varys intermediate goals, they have been also tremendously helpful to him either. Varys didn't need to do much stuff to destabilize the realm. He had also other concerns too. Ned and Jon Arryn's investigations for example and a too soon reveal of the twincest. Stannis leaving with the Royal Fleet and preparing for war. Renly and Loras trying to bring the Reach into the fold, with all the implication for Varys and Illyrio long term plans.

Compared to that, Littlefinger is a low level threat and easily disposable.

Regarding the crown finances. A lot of money is owned to the Lannisters, so Illyrio will simply erase this debts from the accounting and take the gold of the Lannisters to pay the rest, since it's clearly in the plans to bring them down.

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9 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

Regarding the crown finances. A lot of money is owned to the Lannisters, so Illyrio will simply erase this debts from the accounting and take the gold of the Lannisters to pay the rest, since it's clearly in the plans to bring them down.

Is it? It would seem to me that Illyrio would have a larger bone to pick with Braavos than the Lannisters.

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20 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

Notice that when I made the count, I was very conservative of what events they would cover. Indeed the battles took at least 10 chapters and the rest of the PoV the rest. And it is still a 1/3 of ADWD sized book.

Yeah, even conservative estimates amount to a lot of pages. One can just count the words of all the TWoW sample chapter we know at this point and realize that those should get us closer to page 200 than page 100 of the printed book. And no plot thread of ADwD has been resolved in any of those chapters - most were supposed to have been part of ADwD.

20 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

I have the zero evidence theory that the Dosh Khaleen sent Khal Jhaqo to retrieve Dany. Just because it might easy things.

That could be - my guess was that Jhaqo did not come down to Slaver's Bay to help the slavers but to see the dragons. The dragons are thing that really fascinate the Dothraki. The reason why Dany's Dothraki became her, body and soul, despite the fact that this goes against their values and traditions are the dragons. And it is not that big a leap from there to the idea that many Dothraki might think similarly than Dany's people once they actually see the dragons.

But since it would be a cheap story if all suddenly became Dany sycophants George has to come up with a proper story to make her the ruler of the Dothraki. She has to face some challenges and there has to be a compelling way to overcome opposition. And that's going to take (some) time.

20 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

I don't think she will conquer the Jogos Nhai or Yi Tish, but Qarth could be the first target because of the cultural significance for the Dothraki and the important for the Essos wide economy. But this may wreck the already complicated timelines.

I don't think she will go there, either, but I think a realistic depiction will have to take into account that her Dothraki advisers (the dosh khaleen or whoever now sits on her council in Vaes Dothrak) will push her to do something that they have always wanted. And historically the Dothraki have often tried to invade the lands beyond the Bones.

While she has no news from Westeros this could be a compelling idea for a time at least. She could go where even the ancient Valyrians had no (real) power...

Qarth I think she has to target and destroy, both to take personal revenge as well as to ensure that the slave in Western Essos in not rebuilt. She cannot end the slave trade in the Far East, but the Qartheen involved themselves in her affairs and they have to be punished for that. Not to mention that Quaithe might be still there and finally hook up with her properly. There must be a reason why George didn't have her show up physically in Meereen. She could have followed Dany - but, for some reason, she did not.

20 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

Yeah, I agree, it may well be that she won't come back to Slaver's Bay too soon. Which is btw hinted by GRRM's comment that "Dany and Tyrion spends much of the book apart".

Yeah, Tyrion and the gang could deal with Meereenese internal problems (the Sons of the Harpy, etc.) after they have won the battle and, eventually, after the Volantenes have arrived and that crisis has been resolved, too, they could conquer and destroy Yunkai, New Ghis, Tolos, Mantarys, etc. to ensure the slavers never again raise their ugly heads. Combined with the dragonrider plot there is more than enough story material there without Dany ever showing up.

Although one assumes the mobility of the dragonrider thing could allow a dragonrider (Tyrion) from Slaver's Bay to eventually join Dany at Vaes Dothrak or Qarth - but only when they realize she has or may have gone there. One assumes that Dany is going to sent a messenger from Vaes Dothrak to Slaver's Bay after she has taken over the Dothraki (I doubt she would just take Drogon and fly back to Meereen for a visit - that would be too risky shortly after she has taken power) - such a rider could arrive late in the second half of TWoW if we have a positve estimate and say Dany has taken control of the Dothraki around early after the middle of the book.

Then Tyrion and Dany meeting as dragonriders could be a powerful scene late in the books - with Dany's decision what to do about her alleged half-brother being either her last major decision in the book - or the cliffhanger ;-).

20 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

Well, this is for another thread, but as I said above I was very conservative and minimalist in the number of chapter needed and it is still a lot. Just think that we have 20 alive PoVs and each of them have stuff to do. That's already 20 chapters! Repeat the few already involved in the battles and you get 30 chapters, easily. ASOS, had 82 chapters, including Prologue (chapter 0) and Epilogue.

Yeah, and we should assume that Sam and Sansa are featured rather prominently considering how little they had to do in the last book (none at all). In addition, there are the stories that have been fallen behind - Davos, Areo, Bran, Jaime/Brienne, and Aeron have to show up soon considering their stories stopped rather early in ADwD (or weren't featured there at all).

The three cut Arianne chapters - as well as the new Jon Connington chapter covering the taking of Storm's End - also have to be put rather early in the books, likely interspersed with the battle chapters.

And while Dany certainly is a major character her isolated story in TWoW could cause George to focus less on her - sort of like was the case in ASoS - since most of the crucial action and events should take, in the beginning at least, in Slavers Bay, and then of course in Westeros.

20 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

I don't think that Aegon will take the IT and govern for too long whilst Dany is off sacking cities in Essos for a year or two. I don't think that Aegon will sit in the IT for more than half a year and probably less, which also needs btw coordinated with the rest of the PoV timelines.

I think there are many things that can be done in the meantime, and there is buildup for this. My best guess is that Aegon will have to have a lot on his plate after he has taken the throne with Cersei and Euron on the loose, and Littlefinger bringing in the Vale. There is potential conflict with the Faith, and if Cersei and Euron hook up then Aegon could be embroiled in a campaign in the West and/or the Reach (if the Hightowers were to bent the knee to a King Euron). There is the chance to cover Euron sacking Sunspear as answer to the Dornishmen helping Aegon to take the throne, etc.

The way I see it the buildup we got in the last two books has a lot of potential to play out long before the Others make their move or Dany shows up. Even Stannis could re-enter the big game with his sellswords and the Braavosi deploying Faceless Men to take out his enemies in Westeros.

Rushing things here - while what most readers looking forward to the grand finale would want - could actually completely destroy the intricate tapestry of plots George has woven so far. They have to play out. Rushing things mean that the books would devolve in the same kind of shitshow (although on a different level) as the show - in the sense that characters would suddenly do things they have little to no reason or motivation for.

20 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

Similarly, I don't think the war between Aegon and Dany will last too long and might be interrupted by the fall of the Wall. That's I think the Wall falls not too long after Dany arrives to Westeros.

I'd agree with that - what I'm not sure of is whether Aegon can be a powerful king controlling vast assets when Dany arrives. But it could be the Euron-Cersei alliance leads to another war involving the Westermen - which Aegon wins - while at the same time Euron forges a large alliance on the Stepstones with the pirates and the Three Daughters to attack Dany's armada on the way to Westeros - weakening her forces on the way to Westeros, while Aegon can rebuild his strength after his victory over Euron/Cersei's troops on the mainland.

That way the Second Dance as a war between Dany and Aegon could work, and it could also be rather desperate and bloody since both might not exactly in good shape at the time it starts.

But it seems quite clear that we would have to be at the end of ADoS by that time...

20 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

And again, you need to give the rest of the PoV and big actors something to do in the meanwhile. To illustrate the problem, Euron has been raiding the coasts of the Reach for an awful long time without going for any big target. He is still waiting for the Redwyne fleet. Davos sailed a long time ago to Skagos and (as far as we know) not returned with Rickon. Etc.

Yeah, although both Euron and Aegon should have enormous effects as catalysts affecting the plans and actions of many other (POV) characters. They could have even repercussions in the North and at the Wall (where Jon or Melisandre or anyone could conclude they should try to inform that Targaryen guy about the Others, etc.).

And there is massive story potential in the North even after Winterfell has been resolved. They have the Weeper to deal with, they have to deal with the whole Jon situation, and they can and should try to get on the offensive with the Others issue - i.e. try find out what they are, how to stop them, and what they are planning right now. There could even skirmishes and battles between the wights and the good guys before the Wall actually falls. There could even be another major battle beyond the Wall before the Horn of Joramun brings down the Wall.

The idea that things are going to progress quickly in that department seems to be very unlikely to me since the Others didn't even show up in ADwD. One expects some sort of buildup for the inevitable fall of the Wall - but at this point nobody at the Wall seems to be able to contemplate the prospect that the Wall could fall. I think before it actually falls people will contemplate that it could fall - and try to prevent that.

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@rotting sea cow @Lord Varys

What I believe:

1.  Littlefinger will not be brought down by any revelations of embezzlement.  I believe that Littlefinger's fate is Sansa's responsibility, and I doubt that she will be sufficiently concerned by any allegations of embezzlement from the Crown to take him down for it.  Murder, attempted murder, starting wars, etc. is more likely.   That's assuming that there is actual embezzlement in the first place, about which I'm agnostic.  A lot of money has disappeared, but if Littlefinger has it, he hasn't exactly done much with it.  And, of course, Robert did have expensive tastes, and wars tend to be very expensive.

2.  While maybe best saved for another thread (which doesn't exist), I doubt that Dany is going to make the grand tour of slave territory, taking out slavery as she goes along.  I can see her going to Qarth, but only because of the prophecy about going east to go west.  Otherwise, I am not sure what purpose would be served.  I think, at this point, she has figured out that she isn't going to eradicate slavery all by her little lonesome.  I expect that she will collect the Dothraki for a trip west.   Westeros is still her homeland, and I think she still regards herself as its rightful ruler.  News of Aegon could potentially be a catalyst for her making a move.

3.  Stuff needs to start happening.  While I'm not advocating a pace so quick it leaves skid marks behind, GRRM needs to pick up the pace.  A lot.  The Others need to do something to show that they are a threat, and soon.  And Dany needs to do something, anything, to affect the main story; preferably by heading towards Westeros.

I think one of the reasons the story is taking so long to finish is that GRRM is having difficulty deciding which of his children stories to jettison overboard.  He has too much story and not enough room, and something has got to give. To be honest, I think there are too many subplots (I'm looking at you, Faceless Men and Lady Stoneheart, among many others.)  But that's a debate for a different thread.

To respond to the OP, I doubt that Ilyrio is going to have much to do with Littlefinger's ultimate demise.  I'm not even sure LF is on his radar.  If so, I doubt it is very prominent.

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On 9/13/2019 at 2:47 PM, Lluewhyn said:

Could he bust Littlefinger by reviewing the crown's accounts? Possibly.

However, after the Battle of Fire it looks like Daenerys's armies are pointed towards Pentos, and if the Blackfyre theory is correct and Tyrion informs Daenerys, Illyrio may not be living long enough to do any forensic accounting.

Exactly.

Illyrio is dead meat. If Daenerys doesn't have him killed by the end of The Winds of Winter, Tyrion will.

If anyone is going to be exposing Littlefinger, it will be Varys, one of the Tyrells (likely the King's Landing branch of the family), Tyrion or Arianne.

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12 hours ago, Nevets said:

@rotting sea cow @Lord Varys

What I believe:

1.  Littlefinger will not be brought down by any revelations of embezzlement.  I believe that Littlefinger's fate is Sansa's responsibility, and I doubt that she will be sufficiently concerned by any allegations of embezzlement from the Crown to take him down for it.  Murder, attempted murder, starting wars, etc. is more likely.  

I fully agree with that and if the scene at The Eyre tells us something, Littlefinger will attempt to undermine Sansa's rebuilding efforts and pay for that. Arya may collect the evidence thanks to her FM training, etc.

Nevertheless, someone would need to find out about Littlefinger financial shenanigans and write about it for posterity.

12 hours ago, Nevets said:

That's assuming that there is actual embezzlement in the first place, about which I'm agnostic.  A lot of money has disappeared, but if Littlefinger has it, he hasn't exactly done much with it.  And, of course, Robert did have expensive tastes, and wars tend to be very expensive.

Please read

https://racefortheironthrone.wordpress.com/2017/08/28/by-popular-demand-who-stole-westeros/

 

12 hours ago, Nevets said:

2.  While maybe best saved for another thread (which doesn't exist), I doubt that Dany is going to make the grand tour of slave territory, taking out slavery as she goes along.  I can see her going to Qarth, but only because of the prophecy about going east to go west.  Otherwise, I am not sure what purpose would be served.  I think, at this point, she has figured out that she isn't going to eradicate slavery all by her little lonesome.  I expect that she will collect the Dothraki for a trip west.   Westeros is still her homeland, and I think she still regards herself as its rightful ruler.  News of Aegon could potentially be a catalyst for her making a move.

I think you are wrong on that. Dany has given up trying to make compromises with the Slavers. She will eradicate slavery with Fire and Blood. What I don't think we will see is a chapter for every city she conquests. What would be the point of that? Certain places are more important. Volantis, Pentos, maybe Qarth if she really goes there.

Getting the Dothraki behind is also thematically important as they are among the largest slaver societies in Planetos and thus you redeem them collectively by making them now the liberators.

It also fits the theme that Planetos is at the crossroads, big changes are ahead and every place and community will have their own version of the Apocalypse.

Finally, it is important in how Dany would be perceived in the future in Essos and Westeros. Whereas in the former she will be a Messiah-like figure, in the later she will perceived as the person who brought fire and blood and filled the continent with savages and unbelievers. A demon queen, if you like.

 

12 hours ago, Nevets said:

3.  Stuff needs to start happening.  While I'm not advocating a pace so quick it leaves skid marks behind, GRRM needs to pick up the pace.  A lot.  The Others need to do something to show that they are a threat, and soon. 

It is difficult to make stuff happening when you have in average four chapters per PoV across a whole book and a lot of cliffhangers to resolve. It might well be that WINDS is a two volumes book. There are some hints as the publishers asked GRRM if he could split the book (as with Feast&Dance) to which he declined.

I agree with the last sentence. Maybe in the aftermath of Jon's assassination and the collapse of the Night's Watch, the Others mount an attack. This might force Stannis to abandon his immediate political plans and go back to defend the Wall, making him the Lord Commander in all but in name.

 

12 hours ago, Nevets said:

And Dany needs to do something, anything, to affect the main story; preferably by heading towards Westeros.

I think one of the reasons the story is taking so long to finish is that GRRM is having difficulty deciding which of his children stories to jettison overboard.  He has too much story and not enough room, and something has got to give. To be honest, I think there are too many subplots (I'm looking at you, Faceless Men and Lady Stoneheart, among many others.)  But that's a debate for a different thread.

There nothing that forces GRRM to write only two more books and if you have a lot to write, you just write. I know that. See this thread ;) So, if these children stories are important and need more space, it's all fine. I think the main problem is the coordination of these stories.

 

12 hours ago, Nevets said:

To respond to the OP, I doubt that Ilyrio is going to have much to do with Littlefinger's ultimate demise.  I'm not even sure LF is on his radar.  If so, I doubt it is very prominent.

See above. Someone needs to find out what Littlefinger did with the crown finances.

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2 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

Nevertheless, someone would need to find out about Littlefinger financial shenanigans and write about it for posterity.

Please read

https://racefortheironthrone.wordpress.com/2017/08/28/by-popular-demand-who-stole-westeros/

It is clear that Robert is responsible for the debts. Robert took over an overflowing treasury, and Petyr Baelish only became Master of Coin a couple of years before AGoT - and he was specifically brought in by Jon Arryn because he was a genius at increasing the incomes of the Crown.

He literally has nothing to do with Robert's self-destructing spending habits.

That doesn't mean he did not also embezzle the Crown - but that would have happened on a mild level. He is not stupid, he would never take more than he gives the Crown, so that even if his superiors grow suspicious he still continues to be useful to them.

Addendum:

We have no clue for what Robert Baratheon actually spent his money. We can imagine the kind of tourney rewards he threw out happened at every tourney he staged - and he may have staged a couple of tourneys every year. He rebuild the royal fleet from scratch which was likely pretty costly. He would have rebuild the capital after the Sack, and he would have thrown favors in gold at his many friends and buddies while the treasury was still full.

The Greyjoy Rebellion could have been a costly enterprise, too, considering that they had to sail the royal fleet around Westeros.

How dire Robert's financial situation is can be seen by the fact that it is publicly pointed out that the king and queen have their own purses. Robert pays things with the budget of the Crown, but Cersei has her own Lannister funds which is the basis for her ability to entertain her own coterie of favorites and supporters. And she is, of course, massively richer than Robert - and would likely also have been if the treasury had not been empty.

We see how the splendor of the West makes even Aerys II (a pretty rich king) jealous during his visits, and how even Queen Rhaena starts to fear the Lannisters during her stay at Casterly Rock.

Quote

I think you are wrong on that. Dany has given up trying to make compromises with the Slavers. She will eradicate slavery with Fire and Blood. What I don't think we will see is a chapter for every city she conquests. What would be the point of that? Certain places are more important. Volantis, Pentos, maybe Qarth if she really goes there.

I think we will see her go to Volantis, Lys, and Tyrosh on her way to Westeros. Myr and Pentos (and also Qohor and Norvos if they deem that necessary) could be taken by khalasars marching overland. She doesn't have to be with them, although she or other dragonriders might oversee their actions occasionally.

With FaB giving us a tantalizing look at Lys I'm reasonable certain George is going to show us at least the Free City in considerable detail.

Since I guess that the Three Sisters are going to make common cause against the end of their lifestyle (they don't have a slave army and both free citizens in their armies militias as well as free companies to fight for them and should thus be able to violently suppress a slave uprising, unlike the Volantenes), possibly striking a deal with Euron's grand fleet to crush Daenerys' armada (which, with the Volantene navy and the Iron Fleet should be very large). That would have a lot of potential for a story and could already involve anti-Daenerys resentment from the Westerosi.

Quote

Getting the Dothraki behind is also thematically important as they are among the largest slaver societies in Planetos and thus you redeem them collectively by making them now the liberators.

One imagines that the fact that the Dothraki will have to give up slavery will be one of the crucial obstacles Dany is going to face when she takes them over - and it might be the point where she actually has to go to extreme measures to ensure that the Dothraki do understand that this is not optional.

15 hours ago, Nevets said:

3.  Stuff needs to start happening.  While I'm not advocating a pace so quick it leaves skid marks behind, GRRM needs to pick up the pace.  A lot.  The Others need to do something to show that they are a threat, and soon.  And Dany needs to do something, anything, to affect the main story; preferably by heading towards Westeros.

There is not chance that George is going to pick up the pace. That's impossible now. I mean, I don't want the story to be as convoluted and multi-faceted as it is - but that's the case. George is not an elaborate writer. He has a very condensed prose style and gets the plot moving - yet there are too many POVs and too many plotlines there to rush things. Even if he desperately wanted to do that. Which I doubt he wants because he created all those complicated plotlines in the first place. There is a point when physical necessity kicks in - only so many words fit on a page, and only so many pages fit into a book (at least within the narrow business mentality of the American publishing industry - ADwD could have been a better book if they had allowed it to go on to include 1,300 or 1,500 pages in print).

If you go back and read stuff from before ADwD then I laid out that the only chance the series is going to end in just three more books (ADwD, TWoW, and ADoS) if the cliffhanger of ADwD is the fall of the Wall. Then we could have seen the Others pushing down south in TWoW, fitting with the title and theme of that book, and the last book would have given us the grand finale where everything would have been resolved.

Instead, the Others didn't so much as appear in ADwD. And it seems clear that George is going to want to give us a significant second conflict - the Second Dance of the Dragons - before the Others make their move. Because there is no chance whatsoever that either Dany or Aegon go to war against each other while a zombie and ice demon army marches down south. That's ridiculous. That kind of thing only works while the Wall still stands and they have an excuse why a civil war is not completely self-destructive.

It is clear that the fall of the Wall is going to affect all the other plotlines and sort of end or put on hold the petty conflicts of all the factions - but that can only happen at a point when the story is approaching the finale.

And it is simply impossible that we get there in just one additional book. If that were the case then Dany and not Aegon should have gone to Westeros in ADwD. And if you look back at this book which didn't have all the POVs (and only a very reduced number in the first half) then Aegon only got from the Rhoyne to Griffin's Roost. That's not very far.

On some levels TWoW is going to be a faster book since, for the time being, Theon/Asha, Brienne/Jaime, Arianne/Connington, Jon/Melisandre, and Tyrion/Selmy/Victarion are going to be at the same place - which allows the author to continue the overall plot at those places by switching back and forth between those POVs. But that doesn't have to be this way (and would essentially produce more chapters for battles since we are likely going to see both the two cliffhanger battles from two/three POV who are actively participate in the fighting rather than simply 1-2 as was the case with previous battles in AGoT and ACoK - this should actually increase the amount of words that's written about the battles).

But Dany, Arya, Sansa, Sam, Cersei, Davos, Bran, Aeron, and Areo have still their own stories, unconnected to any of the other POVs. And in many cases this might remain this way throughout the entire book - while other characters might split up again. Jaime and Brienne could separate again, if Tyrion becomes a dragonrider he could start to make use of that increased mobility, etc.

There is also a chance that some POVs might die - but since ADwD didn't really deliver on that front I'm not holding my breath for that. Victarion could die, one assumes, and Aeron might, too (although I think the Forsaken has already given us a hint how he is going slip through Euron's fingers at the last moment). But most of the others should be pretty safe (George confirmed that he was writing another Theon chapter after Theon 1, so the guy likely was not sacrificed in Asha 1 - and another hint he gave indicates that Areo also did not go to hunt down Darkstar to die).

Even if 1-2 POVs died - this is not necessarily going to make pace of the overall book faster but merely allowing the author to give crucial characters like Arya, Sansa, and Bran - who were (almost) completely absent in the last two books - more time to shine.

Edited by Lord Varys

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