A Little Hatred Spolier Thread (The world of the "First Law" is back)

[Ninefingers]

19 hours ago, Gaston de Foix said:

I will if you can give me a motive...

Eh, he's not happy with the status quo. 

If memory serves, he made a speech in the first trilogy about having to reset the board every so often. 

His knowing smile when Jezel dies kinda cinches it that he's not disappointed with the upheaval. 

[Gaston de Foix]

9 minutes ago, Ninefingers said:

Eh, he's not happy with the status quo. 

If memory serves, he made a speech in the first trilogy about having to reset the board every so often. 

His knowing smile when Jezel dies kinda cinches it that he's not disappointed with the upheaval. 

Why not? The Union, for all its financial problems and internal precariousness, is the most powerful nation in the world. 

I'm struggling with the question of why Bayaz, whose ultimate interest is in the stability of the Union, would want a revolutionary change.  Maybe he wants to become a Napoleonic dictator rather than the power behind the shadows?

[Ninefingers]

5 minutes ago, Gaston de Foix said:

Why not? The Union, for all its financial problems and internal precariousness, is the most powerful nation in the world. 

I'm struggling with the question of why Bayaz, whose ultimate interest is in the stability of the Union, would want a revolutionary change.  Maybe he wants to become a Napoleonic dictator rather than the power behind the shadows?

I don't think that's true at all. 

He values (a) power and (b) sticking it to Kahlul. A stable union is only valuable insofar as it helps him with (a) and (b). 

Don't forget, he helped Bethod who was planning to attack the union. His loyalty is to himself and his power, not the union. 

[Gaston de Foix]

9 minutes ago, Ninefingers said:

I don't think that's true at all. 

He values (a) power and (b) sticking it to Kahlul. A stable union is only valuable insofar as it helps him with (a) and (b). 

Don't forget, he helped Bethod who was planning to attack the union. His loyalty is to himself and his power, not the union. 

I agree with you on (a) and on permitting Black Calder attack Angland,  While he helped Bethod in his rise to power, I don't think he expected him to attack the Union or to turn against him.  But the Union is a mainstay of his power, just like Valint and Balk.  Why overthrow it?

Also he has reached a truce with Khalul now, but has new opponents in the form of Zacharius and Cawneil.  His enduring goal is really to continue to be the shadow world dictator...

[Ninefingers]

2 minutes ago, Gaston de Foix said:

  Why overthrow it?

 

For the same reason he killed* Jezal, I expect. I think we're left with RAFO.

*Or at the very least, is happy about it.

[Rhom]

I felt sad for both Jezal and Orso in the scene where Bayaz tells Jezal, “He will learn, just as you did.”  

Orso has some definite discomfort coming up.

[RobertOfTheHouseBaratheon]

2 hours ago, SeanF said:

At first, I though Orso was just another Ladisla, but he is way more intelligent and self aware than that.

No, he's more or less another Calder

[RobertOfTheHouseBaratheon]

2 hours ago, Ninefingers said:

Eh, he's not happy with the status quo. 

If memory serves, he made a speech in the first trilogy about having to reset the board every so often. 

His knowing smile when Jezel dies kinda cinches it that he's not disappointed with the upheaval. 

Every so often tends to be in a millennium. The last time he intervened in the monarchy was hundreds of years before Jezal. He actually says in TLAOK he can't afford to do it again too often. 

The formula from the previous book points to Bayaz being behind it however all the evidence points to it being against all Bayaz is trying to do. 

[red snow]

4 hours ago, SeanF said:

At first, I though Orso was just another Ladisla, but he is way more intelligent and self aware than that.

It's like he plays at being ladisla which given how Bayaz runs things might be the best way to appear by going under the radar. although where I've got to it seems Sulfur is already aware he's smarter than he appears - I'm interested to see whether Sulfur sees this as a plus or a negative. 

I'm also wondering where he got the intelligence from at this stage (I'm just at the point where the union is trying to spring a trap for the North but it doesn't go as planned). Terez seems the most likely candidate although I think Tunny may have been more of an influence than just a drinking and whoring buddy.

[Ninefingers]

2 hours ago, RobertOfTheHouseBaratheon said:

Every so often tends to be in a millennium. The last time he intervened in the monarchy was hundreds of years before Jezal. He actually says in TLAOK he can't afford to do it again too often. 

The formula from the previous book points to Bayaz being behind it however all the evidence points to it being against all Bayaz is trying to do. 

Sure, but the industrial revolution just happened. Not too big of a stretch to think that the plan that made sense a few decades before is already outdated.

But really, even if Bayaz's motivations aren't immediately apparent to us, IMO the combination of his reaction to Jezal's death and the perfect fit of Rikke's vision make him the leading candidate by a wide margin.

[Gaston de Foix]

Question: will we be introduced to new characters in the next book as well for are we more or less sticking with this cast throughout? Where's my summon Joe button gone...

[Rhom]

1 minute ago, Gaston de Foix said:

Question: will we be introduced to new characters in the next book as well for are we more or less sticking with this cast throughout? Where's my summon Joe button gone...

Well... if he sticks to form with the first trilogy, I’d say we pretty much have the major POVs set.  We will meet new ancillary characters, but I’d be surprised if we had a new major POV.

[Dez]

To me, Orso looks like he's being set up by Bayaz to be the fall man for a larger revolution. He's coming to the throne by Bayaz's design (we know Jezal didn't just die) right at a moment when he's been branded with a horrible reputation. With Jezal, Bayaz went to pains to build him up as a young hero king for the purpose of holding up the Union's status quo. He wants Orso to be the scapegoat for whatever unrest comes to reorder things. At least, I think that's the plan. Fortunately, there's two thirds of this thing left and since most readers are initiated as to what Bayaz is, I doubt he's going to have all his own way this time.

That said, all the characters seem just as clueless this time around as to what Bayaz looks to be up to- even the ones who know that Bayaz is the puppet master. You'd think for instance that if Glokta had some secret game going on that he might not have let Savine drift so close to the crosshairs of Bayaz's attention. Really, I think Glokta, like the reader, has been conditioned to think that Bayaz with all his monarchical airs values the current institutions of the Union for their own sake. But as a shadow ruler he could easily slap a new color paint on his tools and be just as effective. They could have a fairly dramatic political and social revolution and Bayaz could still use his existing levers to control the machine. 

 

[RobertOfTheHouseBaratheon]

2 hours ago, Ninefingers said:

 

But really, even if Bayaz's motivations aren't immediately apparent to us, IMO the combination of his reaction to Jezal's death and the perfect fit of Rikke's vision make him the leading candidate by a wide margin.

Absolutely but that's exactly why I don't think it's Bayaz. It so obviously looks like Bayaz it has to be misdirection. All the other books have twists and turns and subversion of the expected. To put him so clearly and obviously as the Weaver in a prophecy seems odd. It wasn't exactly subtle, in this genre prophecies are picked apart. 

I don't think the end game will be this obvious from the start.

[A True Kaniggit]

I don’t get why Ardee and Glotka think it’s so important that Orso not find out that Savine is his sister. What do they think he’d do with the information? He’d probably do what Savine did, be disgusted at the incest, and decide it’s best to keep it a secret that his father has an older bastard.

[unJon]

9 hours ago, Ninefingers said:

I don't think that's true at all. 

He values (a) power and (b) sticking it to Kahlul. A stable union is only valuable insofar as it helps him with (a) and (b). 

Don't forget, he helped Bethod who was planning to attack the union. His loyalty is to himself and his power, not the union. 

That’s the point. The union isn’t what Bayaz wants for its own sake. The union was just the best structure to keep Bayaz in power as he liked. But times are changing, as is the theme in this book. The Union is not longer a better power structure than his bank Valint. And the union is bankrupt owing so much money to the bank. So Bayaz will ride the wave of populism backed by capitalism to overthrow the union and put himself into a safer power structure by owning the bank. 

Don’t fight progress. Ride progress to better power. 

[Gaston de Foix]

1 hour ago, A True Kaniggit said:

I don’t get why Ardee and Glotka think it’s so important that Orso not find out that Savine is his sister. What do they think he’d do with the information? He’d probably do what Savine did, be disgusted at the incest, and decide it’s best to keep it a secret that his father has an older bastard.

I think they are just protecting their daughter from a potential threat. A royal bastard is a threat to Orso's inheritance. 

[Gaston de Foix]

2 hours ago, Rhom said:

Well... if he sticks to form with the first trilogy, I’d say we pretty much have the major POVs set.  We will meet new ancillary characters, but I’d be surprised if we had a new major POV.

No Styrian viewpoints? No Temple? :(

[AzureOwl]

9 hours ago, Gaston de Foix said:

Why not? The Union, for all its financial problems and internal precariousness, is the most powerful nation in the world. 

I'm struggling with the question of why Bayaz, whose ultimate interest is in the stability of the Union, would want a revolutionary change.  Maybe he wants to become a Napoleonic dictator rather than the power behind the shadows?

Maybe the answer lies in that the Union has ceased to be a useful tool for expansion. It's history for the past three decades has been one of military failure abroad and uprisings at home. 

The scale of the continuous debacles in Styria can't just be attributed to Monza & Co.'s competence. The Union's institutions seem incapable of producing any competent high level military leaders other than by fluke of circumstance. (see exhibit A: Finree dan Brock).

Bayaz may be seeking to replace to current societal/political structure in the Union with one that produces consistently competent officers. One that can be used to expand the borders without bankrupting the whole nation.

I mean, the dude may be evil, but he's not stupid. He may have foreseen that the he needs to put a somewhat more meritocratic system in place if he is to reap the full advantages of the new industrial revolution. The current aristocracy and its hold on the military has got to go. 

[Gaston de Foix]

1 hour ago, AzureOwl said:

Maybe the answer lies in that the Union has ceased to be a useful tool for expansion. It's history for the past three decades has been one of military failure abroad and uprisings at home. 

This is a good analysis.  Maybe Bayaz is experimenting with a French revolution leading to a Napoleon like figure emerging to lead the Union.  If so, I would put Victarine as a likely candidate.  But such an individual is unlikely to accept Bayaz as the power behind the throne.  Even in Styria, Shenkt advises Murcatto but does not rule through her.