Heresy 227 and the Great Turtle

[asongofheresy]

16 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

Islam and Judiasm share a common origin in the Middle East through Abraham and both share Moses as an early prophet. I'm not sure when the "tree" branched, but I do understand that Islam became its own religion with Mohammed as their major prophet, and Christianity became its own religion with their major prophet Jesus. 

Mohammed was born 570 CE, but the exact year of Jesus's birth is debatable. I tend to agree with sources that use the death of King Herod the Great in their calculations. Herod died in 4 BCE, so he obviously needed to be alive when he declared that all male children around Bethlehem “who are two years old and under” (Matthew 2:16) would be killed. This means that Jesus would have been born anywhere from 4 BCE to 7 BCE.

Even though Mohammed was born over 570 years after Jesus, he still lived within the same 2155 year-long "age", which was the Age of Pisces. I'd be interested to know if there are any stories about Mohammed and two fish?

Well P Muhammad wasn't born in 571 AC that's what I meant with my original comment, your date is tied to hadiths which were created after prophet's death but Quran's information about him is different. He is tied to volcanic eruptions in 530 ads as well as Second Council of Constantinapole since Quran adresses Bible is being corrupted while he is alive rather than before his coming. There is no Quranic part with Muhammad and fishes bir there is one about Moses and his nephew that involves a fish becoming immortal and the nephew - whose name is given as Esau in Quran - witness it while Moses doesn't. I think that's supposed to happen during end of Age of Ram and start of Age of Pisces, Moses is old and will not witness a new age and his nephew is young and will witness the changes that will be long lasting. That's atleast how I understand the story. 

[Melifeather]

1 hour ago, Jova Snow said:

Well P Muhammad wasn't born in 571 AC that's what I meant with my original comment, your date is tied to hadiths which were created after prophet's death but Quran's information about him is different. He is tied to volcanic eruptions in 530 ads as well as Second Council of Constantinapole since Quran adresses Bible is being corrupted while he is alive rather than before his coming. There is no Quranic part with Muhammad and fishes bir there is one about Moses and his nephew that involves a wish becoming immortal and the nephew - whose name is given as Esau in Quran - witness it while Moses doesn't. I think that's supposed to happen during end of Age of Ram and start of Age of Pisces, Moses is old and will not witness a new age and his nephew is young and will witness the changes that will be long lasting. That's atleast how I understand the story. 

The way they determine years can be frustrating. I think the consensus accepts Common Era (CE), Before Common Era (BCE), and After Common Era (ACE), so are you saying Mohammed was born 530 After Common Era?

The Bible has a famous Esau who was a fraternal twin to Jacob, but they weren't Abraham's nephews - they were his grandsons - but their father Isaac was Abraham's miracle son by his very aged wife Sarah.

Esau and Jacob are famous for their struggle to be their father's heir. Esau was born first with Jacob holding onto his heel. Very much like Cersei and Jaime! Esau was his father's favorite too, because he was a good hunter, but Jacob was their mother's favorite and she came up with a plan on how he could seize the birthright for himself.

Esau was very hairy while Jacob was very smooth skinned, so their mother tied sheep's wool onto Jacob's arms, then she had him bring Isaac a bowl of stew. Isaac was blind and was soon to be dead, and he wanted this meeting to serve as a type of ceremony where he would recognize Esau as his heir. Issac felt the wooly arms and was fooled into thinking Jacob was Esau, and he bestowed upon him the blessings of the firstborn. It makes me wonder if the wooly-ness of Esau is tied to Aries the Ram and the smooth-skinned Jacob is connected to the fish of Pisces? There's definitely a connection to the number two since Esau and Jacob were twins. It also adds a duality factor for the two fishes to have one wooly and one smooth, sort of yin and yang - or black and white like ASOIAF.

Your version about a wish becoming immortal might be a different telling of the Esau and Jacob heir struggle. I don't think the Biblical tale is actually meant to be understood as an actual event, but rather symbolic of receiving blessings from god, so it might be that the wish of immortality might actually have a similar symbolic meaning somehow? The blessings and the wish are essentially similar while Esau losing his birthright to Jacob may be a parallel to Esau witnessing the wish while Moses missed out?

It's funny how Esau and Jacob's tale came up, because I was just discussing a similar topic on Gender Relations in Westeros. In particular my post about the various women in Westeros who are fighting the patriarchy over their inheritance rights.

[asongofheresy]

13 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

The way they determine years can be frustrating. I think the consensus accepts Common Era (CE), Before Common Era (BCE), and After Common Era (ACE), so are you saying Mohammed was born 530 After Common Era?

The Bible has a famous Esau who was a fraternal twin to Jacob, but they weren't Abraham's nephews - they were his grandsons - but their father Isaac was Abraham's miracle son by his very aged wife Sarah.

Esau and Jacob are famous for their struggle to be their father's heir. Esau was born first with Jacob holding onto his heel. Very much like Cersei and Jaime! Esau was his father's favorite too, because he was a good hunter, but Jacob was their mother's favorite and she came up with a plan on how he could seize the birthright for himself.

Esau was very hairy while Jacob was very smooth skinned, so their mother tied sheep's wool onto Jacob's arms, then she had him bring Isaac a bowl of stew. Isaac was blind and was soon to be dead, and he wanted this meeting to serve as a type of ceremony where he would recognize Esau as his heir. Issac felt the wooly arms and was fooled into thinking Jacob was Esau, and he bestowed upon him the blessings of the firstborn. It makes me wonder if the wooly-ness of Esau is tied to Aries the Ram and the smooth-skinned Jacob is connected to the fish of Pisces? There's definitely a connection to the number two since Esau and Jacob were twins. It also adds a duality factor for the two fishes to have one wooly and one smooth, sort of yin and yang - or black and white like ASOIAF.

Your version about a wish becoming immortal might be a different telling of the Esau and Jacob heir struggle. I don't think the Biblical tale is actually meant to be understood as an actual event, but rather symbolic of receiving blessings from god, so it might be that the wish of immortality might actually have a similar symbolic meaning somehow? The blessings and the wish are essentially similar while Esau losing his birthright to Jacob may be a parallel to Esau witnessing the wish while Moses missed out?

It's funny how Esau and Jacob's tale came up, because I was just discussing a similar topic on Gender Relations in Westeros. In particular my post about the various women in Westeros who are fighting the patriarchy over their inheritance rights.

I would say ACE - Qur'anic Esau is not the biblical one, he is nephew of Moses and son of Miriam, raised by his mother and uncles after Miriam's husband leaves them because he is sent to another city as a prophet. Qur'anic Jacob is an only child and has no sibling though I am aware of the Biblical tale. I think it is really interesting how Quran and Bible are said to be similar with significant differences. 

[JNR]

On 10/16/2019 at 10:03 AM, JNR said:

If he gets TWOW out the door next year, and there's only one more book, I suspect he can finish ASOIAF.  But if he needs an eighth novel, that will pretty much shut the door on all hope IMO.

A bit more about this.

In May, when the show crashed and burned like a flaming turd hurled by Leaf, GRRM wrote:

Quote

I expect these last two books of mine will fill 3000 manuscript pages between them before I’m done…

Ergo, we know he expects the last two books to run about 1500 manuscript pages each.

Well, ASOS was 1521 manuscript pages.  It is also as large as a book can possibly be without becoming two books (which is what happened to AFFC, which is why ADWD exists).

So in short, GRRM is saying TWOW and ADOS will both probably be as large as a book can be.  FIne, we expected that. But then he adds:

Quote

and if more pages and chapters and scenes are needed, I’ll add them.

If he did, it would force ASOIAF to become an eight-book series.

[Lord Aegon The Compromiser]

5 hours ago, JNR said:

A bit more about this.

In May, when the show crashed and burned like a flaming turd hurled by Leaf, GRRM wrote:

Ergo, we know he expects the last two books to run about 1500 manuscript pages each.

Well, ASOS was 1521 manuscript pages.  It is also as large as a book can possibly be without becoming two books (which is what happened to AFFC, which is why ADWD exists).

So in short, GRRM is saying TWOW and ADOS will both probably be as large as a book can be.  FIne, we expected that. But then he adds:

If he did, it would force ASOIAF to become an eight-book series.

Considering how many story threads need to be written and wrapped and GRRM spending the first few hundred pages moving basically nothing along at all, I can't imagine he finishes in two books unless they are 2500-3000 manuscript pages each. 

At this rate he will be hard pressed to finish in 8 books. He will likely need 9 books, unless he manages to blow past that word count as well.

He might have ASOIAF finished by 2040. Maybe.

[alienarea]

14 minutes ago, Lord Aegon The Compromiser said:

Considering how many story threads need to be written and wrapped and GRRM spending the first few hundred pages moving basically nothing along at all, I can't imagine he finishes in two books unless they are 2500-3000 manuscript pages each. 

At this rate he will be hard pressed to finish in 8 books. He will likely need 9 books, unless he manages to blow past that word count as well.

He might have ASOIAF finished by 2040. Maybe.

Hope dies last. But it's in a coma for a while.

[Lord Aegon The Compromiser]

26 minutes ago, alienarea said:

Hope dies last. But it's in a coma for a while.

My enthusiasm has certainly been in a coma since the Mummer's Version passed the books. I wouldn't say I have much hope anymore either. I do wish he'd actually sit down and focus on the books. It's been 8 1/2 years since ADWD released. If he actually cared enough to give the fans what we are waiting for, he could have released three 1500 manuscript page books by now. At worst we'd be waiting on Book 9.

 

Edit: At the current pace, with all that needs wrapped up and the fact he doesn't write very often, 2040 does feel awfully optimistic, doesn't it?

[Lord Aegon The Compromiser]

Shall we list all the threads that need to be wrapped up? It's been a little while since I've seen one, but it is extensive.

Assuming GRRM doesn't decide to give us the Book version of the Mummer's ending.

Edit: Instead of making a list, I've decided to link to extensive lists. Though I imagine there are at least a few plot threads that don't appear on either list. For the purpose of trying to predict the page count needed to finish the books, these lists also don't take into account all the possible new characters and plot threads that may be introduced. Or follow up plots once these are resolved. Such as if Jon Snow is still alive or is resurrected, there will almost certainly be future chapters devoted to him afterwards. It's crazy to think ASOIAF finishes within two more books, unless they themselves are each the size of ASOS and ADWD put together.

https://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?/topic/134341-creating-a-comprehensive-list-of-mysteries/

 

 

[Black Crow]

Actually, I think that it could work out a lot simpler in the end.

If we return to the original synopsis, the Iron Throne is irrelevant. Sure its a major element, but ultimately the story is about the children of Winterfell and how Winter threatens all of a war-ravaged Westeros. There is of course a very popular but ultimately untenable theory that a certain Jon Snow will prove to be a Targaryen Dragonlord and so win the day, but GRRM has spoken of journeys into the Heart of of Ice and the Heart of Fire being necessary. These, rather than mighty battles, may be yet to come, although I suspect that Bran's journey into the Heart of Darkness may be the first and that Tyrion's wandering in the East may prove to be the other. 

Jon Snow must learn the truth of the Musgrave Ritual and bring down both the Wall and the last of the Dragonlords while Brân Fendigaidd will indeed therafter rule or at least watch over the island of Westeros.

All else is vanity

If pressed I'd opine that GRRM has had such an outcome in mind from the beginning. The problem is a combination of world-building and expanding that narrative into an Epic. The other story lines are at best peripheral and ultimately expendable once GRRM can take a pair of shears and crop back the tangle of briars which have overcome his garden

 

[JNR]

17 hours ago, Lord Aegon The Compromiser said:

I can't imagine he finishes in two books unless they are 2500-3000 manuscript pages each. 

Well, I can imagine it being done, abstractly. 

But it requires the outlook and skills of an architect. Meaning, you start with a plot of land (3000 manuscript pages), you know it's not gonna grow. 

You are constantly aware, every day, that you must achieve all your goals inside that fixed square footage.  You can't just say "And if I need more space I'll buy the surrounding buildings, knock them down, and build whatever I want."

But when I read the sample chapters of TWOW, I see no sign he's thinking like an architect.  And when he says

23 hours ago, JNR said:

if more pages and chapters and scenes are needed, I’ll add them

...it seems clear he's still thinking like a gardener. 

And it's not like he will just add 300 more pages onto his planned 3000, and publish those 300 as a mini-book.  That's just not gonna happen.  If he goes to eight books, he will gobble up another 1500 pages in the last book, and it will almost certainly take him another decade or so to turn it out.

So this is why I've been saying for a long time now that he could use some skilled help. Not to decide what will happen -- his plans are great! -- but to organize and focus his plans so they will fit inside the 3000 page limit, and thus, allow him to finish ASOIAF in the next ten years.

That IMO is still possible. Though I wouldn't bet on it.

[JNR]

Pleased to report that those of us who thought D&D were totally out of their depth were apparently spot-on.

This Twitter thread is well worth reading for anybody who wants confirmation that the show was a head-on collision of bad writing slammed into bad continuity.

The pull quote has to be this one from Weiss:

Quote

Dan is saying that writers and source material end up in divorce and that there divorce was amicable - since they ran out of material.

"Ran out of material" means, quite simply, that GRRM gave them damn little beyond the last page of ADWD.   As I always thought, and many of you right alongside me.

I'm hoping GRRM will read the thread, because if he does maybe he'll realize how incredibly low the bar has been set and how preposterously easy the book fans will be to please (given any new novel at all). Because if he realizes that, maybe some of the pressure will lift from his shoulders.

ETA: This also means all post-ADWD surprises/revelations (example: Jon's parents) probably did not come from GRRM, and quite a bit of stuff from earlier seasons isn't canonical either (example: Night's King turning out to be a dark lord in a future book).

D&D were just improvising to fill in the blanks themselves, and neither they nor their assistants (such as Cogman) had much inside info, nor much talent either IMO.

[Lord Aegon The Compromiser]

5 hours ago, JNR said:

Pleased to report that those of us who thought D&D were totally out of their depth were apparently spot-on.

This Twitter thread is well worth reading for anybody who wants confirmation that the show was a head-on collision of bad writing slammed into bad continuity.

The pull quote has to be this one from Weiss:

"Ran out of material" means, quite simply, that GRRM gave them damn little beyond the last page of ADWD.   As I always thought, and many of you right alongside me.

I'm hoping GRRM will read the thread, because if he does maybe he'll realize how incredibly low the bar has been set and how preposterously easy the book fans will be to please (given any new novel at all). Because if he realizes that, maybe some of the pressure will lift from his shoulders.

ETA: This also means all post-ADWD surprises/revelations (example: Jon's parents) probably did not come from GRRM, and quite a bit of stuff from earlier seasons isn't canonical either (example: Night's King turning out to be a dark lord in a future book).

D&D were just improvising to fill in the blanks themselves, and neither they nor their assistants (such as Cogman) had much inside info, nor much talent either IMO.

It will always boggle my mind that HBO didn't take the series from D&D after season 6. HBO themselves, if I remember correctly, wanted several more seasons of 10 episodes. Yet they let D&D tell them no and rush out 1 shortened season of mediocrity and 1 shortened absolute dumpster fire of a season that was basically bad fan fiction cliff notes of 3 ten hour seasons crammed into 8 hours. 

Also what you said about post ADWD not coming from GRRM makes sense to me. The Night King didn't even exist until the Hardhome episode. The closest to a leader of the white walkers we get before that is the Gandalf white walker at the end of season 2. Plus they plugged in the RLJ fan theory when Book Canon doesn't even establish that Lyanna was pregnant or that Rhaegar and Lyanna were ever anywhere near eachother outside of the Harrenhal tourney.

D&D haven't spoiled the ending at all in my mind. If GRRM gave them any info at all, they probably changed it to fit their rushed ending. 

[Lord Aegon The Compromiser]

Is anyone familiar with Nerdrotic? I can't find the video anymore (he sometimes deletes his livestreams) but about a month ago he said he saw GRRM at an Orville screening and George flat out announced to the crowd outside that he wasn't going to do any writing for TWOW until after awards season is over. Sounds like typical George to me, but it sure doesn't sound like he's serious about having TWOW on store shelves by next summer.

[Melifeather]

13 hours ago, JNR said:

Pleased to report that those of us who thought D&D were totally out of their depth were apparently spot-on.

This Twitter thread is well worth reading for anybody who wants confirmation that the show was a head-on collision of bad writing slammed into bad continuity.

The pull quote has to be this one from Weiss:

"Ran out of material" means, quite simply, that GRRM gave them damn little beyond the last page of ADWD.   As I always thought, and many of you right alongside me.

I'm hoping GRRM will read the thread, because if he does maybe he'll realize how incredibly low the bar has been set and how preposterously easy the book fans will be to please (given any new novel at all). Because if he realizes that, maybe some of the pressure will lift from his shoulders.

ETA: This also means all post-ADWD surprises/revelations (example: Jon's parents) probably did not come from GRRM, and quite a bit of stuff from earlier seasons isn't canonical either (example: Night's King turning out to be a dark lord in a future book).

D&D were just improvising to fill in the blanks themselves, and neither they nor their assistants (such as Cogman) had much inside info, nor much talent either IMO.

They were fine when they were adapting existing source material, but when they had to fill in GRRM’s “outline” they turned to fan theories which were demonstrably ridiculous when played out on television.

[alienarea]

Just very happy to hear D&D dropped Star Wars. The Force is strong in a galaxy far, far away.

[JNR]

8 hours ago, Lord Aegon The Compromiser said:

It will always boggle my mind that HBO didn't take the series from D&D after season 6. HBO themselves, if I remember correctly, wanted several more seasons of 10

It might be that they were just thrilled with the money/ratings they were getting and they feared a decline in both categories if somebody else took over.

But at the time, I was saying (among many others) that they could get a much better outcome by steering a middle course.  

That is... get somebody decent to handle story continuity, to avoid all the blatant crazy bullshit that started early on, and integrate that person into the overall design of the total series as well as each season and episode.

They never did, so we wound up with... that.  (I also have to wonder if GRRM tried to be that guy, and was overruled.)

2 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

They were fine when they were adapting existing source material, but when they had to fill in GRRM’s “outline”

Season one was actually pretty good.  Season two and three... eh. 

What they did in season four was like something a howler monkey had crapped out after feasting on rotted meat.  Things got much worse after that.

I also don't believe GRRM ever gave them an outline.   Hence their stated position that GRRM had only given them three "holy shit" moments from the last three thousand manuscript pages.  

To rephrase: he gave them one tidbit per thousand pages he planned to write.  And two were about Hodor and Shireen.

If you read the Twitter thread, you'll see they admit not even having analyzed the books, or understanding the characters.  (They relied on the actors to teach them about the characters.)  Pathetic.

1 hour ago, alienarea said:

Just very happy to hear D&D dropped Star Wars

Amen.

[redriver]

Bloodmoon dropped too.

[Black Crow]

3 hours ago, JNR said:

 

I also don't believe GRRM ever gave them an outline.   Hence their stated position that GRRM had only given them three "holy shit" moments from the last three thousand manuscript pages.  

 

Well as we're discussed before, The infamous Santa Fe conference gave them the endings of certain character story arcs. But quite obviously although those may be the endings revealed by the Mummers, GRRM clearly didn't tell them how those endings came about. Its obviously significant that although they themselves bought into the R+L=J fanfiction, that wasn't the outcome GRRM gave them.

[Lord Aegon The Compromiser]

6 hours ago, alienarea said:

Just very happy to hear D&D dropped Star Wars. The Force is strong in a galaxy far, far away.

Yep. They literally destroyed the show for no reason.

[Lord Aegon The Compromiser]

3 hours ago, redriver said:

Bloodmoon dropped too.

This is the effect of GOT being destroyed. If it hadn't HBO would have greenlit multiple prequels without a second thought.