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Heresy 227 and the Great Turtle


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50 minutes ago, JNR said:

But it's heartbreaking to think that GRRM could just as easily fail to finish the series, just because he can't resist doing all those little narrative pit stops and minor character introductions/explorations that we find in the TWOW sample chapters.

So instead of having Arianne Martell already at Storm's End in her first TWOW chapter, there to discover something really amazing (to readers and herself), which is also essential for the story... GRRM spends two chapters just getting her there.  Two out of only ~150 chapters in which he hopes to tell all the remaining story.

Stuff like this is why I will continue to predict it takes GRRM 3 more books, ~ 225 chapters.

He just doesn't keep to a word count. I do think he can finish 8 books, but he'll have to speed up his writing by quite a bit. Back to AGOT-ASOS speed.

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13 minutes ago, Melifeather said:

I've slowly been transitioning my profile back to what it was when I first joined this forum. I started out as Melisandra, then changed to Feather Crystal, and now Melifeather, which is also my name on HoBaW. 

The blizzard emanating out of Winterfell is not my original idea, neither is the idea that the Wall is disintegrating and blowing away in the form of the blizzard, but they are both solid ideas that I think could be true.

I think the blizzard originating from Winterfell is Redriver's idea.

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Dany in particular gives me great cause for concern regarding GRRM's ability to finish within two books, taking into account all of the plot points we know she still has to deal with, as well as the ones she might hypothetically have to deal with.

Off the top of my head, there's the Dothraki, Meereen, securing passage to the West, Benerro and Moqorro, Dragonbinder and Euron, Young Griff, the various other Westerosi nobles and players that she might have to deal with during her invasion plot independently of the Young Griff problem, and the Long Night 2.0.

Hypothetically, all of that can be addressed within two books, but can it be addressed satisfyingly--particularly Dany's homecoming, which seems like an arc that needs room to breathe? Is it consistent with the pace GRRM has kept thus far to resolve so many major plots in so short a period?

How many chapters will be spent on the Dothraki alone? What about Dany's return to Meereen--will that take up at least a chapter or two? What about the logistics of moving her army westward, how many chapters for that? Will GRRM end one chapter with her sailing, and then return to her POV when she formally lands, or will we have even more chapters (and page count) from her in between? 

Granted, a lot of those plots don't belong to Dany alone, and will subsume the chapters of Tyrion, Victarion, Arianne, Cersei, Connington, etc. but I'm still feeling pessimistic.
 

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16 hours ago, Lord Aegon The Compromiser said:

Has there ever been discussion in Heresy about underground tunnels connecting the Seven Kingdoms? 

It seems logical to me that the COTF could have had a network of underground tunnels and that helped them fight and survive the First Men and Andals.

This is a good thread to start:

 

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4 hours ago, Lord Aegon The Compromiser said:

I do think he can finish 8 books, but he'll have to speed up his writing by quite a bit. Back to AGOT-ASOS speed.

Yeah, that could definitely work, but I struggle to persuade myself GRRM either sees the need to do that, or would do it if he did see it.

I think what he's telling himself is this, from May 20 of this year:

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I expect these last two books of mine will fill 3000 manuscript pages between them before I’m done… and if more pages and chapters and scenes are needed, I’ll add them. 

Yeah, that's not a good plan.  That's just lather-rinse-repeat -- the kind of plan that, if executed on a football field, has GRRM yelling at his TV on Sunday afternoons.

Far better to prune the chapters he already has, yanking many of them completely if they only exist for superficial reasons, and moving the one or two tidbits of importance they contain into some other chapter. And then optimizing the future plot to fulfill all his major goals in accordance with their narrative priority.

1 hour ago, Matthew. said:

Dany in particular gives me great cause for concern regarding GRRM's ability to finish within two books, taking into account all of the plot points we know she still has to deal with, as well as the ones she might hypothetically have to deal with.

Yeah, Snowyfre and I have discussed this too.  He thinks GRRM is actually going to take her back to Vaes Dothrak so that this can happen:

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Beneath the Mother of Mountains, a line of naked crones crept from a great lake and knelt shivering before her, their grey heads bowed.

Well... Iogically that does follow. But I can only hope that particular vision is days-that-never-were.  The last thing this series needs is Dany trudging a thousand miles north into Essos and then a thousand miles back, thus gobbling up a dozen or more chapters while only telling ~1% of the remaining story. 

Every chapter should tell roughly that much of the remaining story, or close to it, or he risks never finishing ASOIAF.

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4 hours ago, Lord Aegon The Compromiser said:

I think the blizzard originating from Winterfell is Redriver's idea.

I accept the blame.

But no disintegrating Walls being funnelled through a tunnel system and spewed out thereafter.

I'm not to blame for that.

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4 hours ago, Melifeather said:

I've slowly been transitioning my profile back to what it was when I first joined this forum. I started out as Melisandra, then changed to Feather Crystal, and now Melifeather, which is also my name on HoBaW. 

The blizzard emanating out of Winterfell is not my original idea, neither is the idea that the Wall is disintegrating and blowing away in the form of the blizzard, but they are both solid ideas that I think could be true.

So.

The wheel if time is stuck in reverse?

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3 hours ago, Matthew. said:

How many chapters will be spent on the Dothraki alone? What about Dany's return to Meereen--will that take up at least a chapter or two? What about the logistics of moving her army westward, how many chapters for that? Will GRRM end one chapter with her sailing, and then return to her POV when she formally lands, or will we have even more chapters (and page count) from her in between? 

Why does Daenerys have to invade or come to Westeros to bring her arc to an end? Why can she not find fulfillment within a different role that has become familiar even if its not what she envisioned for herself? Why not stay with the Dothraki?

1 hour ago, redriver said:

But no disintegrating Walls being funnelled through a tunnel system and spewed out thereafter.

I'm not to blame for that.

That idea was LynnS's when she wrote her essay on the Wall a few years back, but she has said since that she isn't invested in that idea any longer. I thought it was brilliant and I still cling to much of it.

1 hour ago, redriver said:

The wheel if time is stuck in reverse?

In reverse, or at the very least its unraveling. Isn't it apparent? 

Lord Commander Jon Snow was taken down by mutineers. Meanwhile the King Beyond the Wall has been taken prisoner by the Lord of Winterfell. Historically, the Lord of Winterfell teamed up with the King Beyond the Wall and they brought the Nights King to justice.

Nymeria sailed her 10,000 ships, fleeing the dragonlords who had overtaken the Rhoyne area. She found an ally in Dorne and married her people to the Dornish, and then burned  her ships. Arianne Martell (Dorne) is on her way to propose an alliance with Young Griff, who sailed to Westeros on ships from the Rhoynar region. Will he burn his ships? Will a marriage occur? If history is undoing itself, the ending should be the opposite of what happened before.

The Faith Militant uprising began during the reign of King Aenys I and continued through King Maegor. The Faith objected to Maegor taking a second wife and Aenys decision to marry his son and daughter to each other. The small folk turned against the Targaryens and organized under the name "Poor Fellows". In addition a number of knights loyal to the Faith organized under the name "Warrior's Sons". The Poor Fellows and the Warrior's Sons made up the Faith Militant, and they opposed any people guilty of going against the Faith whether they were nobles or the King himself. By the end of a year most of the realm was on the side of the Faith. Dowager Queen Visenya called Maegor back from exile, and together they fought against and eventually annihilated the Faith Militant. I'm condensing the events, but we can see some of these events unfolding in the current story. The Faith became incensed during the War of the Five Kings by the many attacks against their holy men and women, and by the sacking of septs and septries carried out by foragers, such as the Brave Companions. The High Septon aka The High Sparrow, convinced Cersei to allow the Faith Militant to carry arms again under the pretext of protecting themselves. In exchange Cersei hoped to alleviate some of the crown's debt, cater the Faith's blessing, and gain protection from some of her enemies. She didn't marry her brother, but they had three children together, and she's currently on trial for fornication, and perhaps for falsely accusing her daughter in law of adultery. She foolishly thought the Faith would have her back, or else she was ignorant of the Faith Militant's history of opposing the crown. Cersei doesn't have dragons to put the Faith back into their place, but she does have wildfyre. One of the pieces of this puzzle is who Cersei's "Maegor" is? Cersei is the parallel to the "Dowager Queen", but who will she summon from exile? Has anyone ever taken note of any parallels between Tyrion and Maegor the Cruel?

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1 hour ago, redriver said:

So.

The wheel if time is stuck in reverse?

No. No. No. it’s never been stuck in reverse. It just keeps moving forward one ripple at a time that changes based on which choices that you make. Eventually it just creates a bunch of false echoes though. 

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3 hours ago, JNR said:

Yeah, Snowyfre and I have discussed this too.  He thinks GRRM is actually going to take her back to Vaes Dothrak so that this can happen:

I agree with Snowfyre; I believe that vision is foreshadowing Dany returning to Vaes Dothrak, and emerging leading a massive Khalasar.

I acknowledge that I have biases regarding GRRM's use of prophesy, since the vision could be (as you noted) a vision of a future that will never be, or representational of a particular internal characterization idea - eg, the vision is foreshadowing Dany embracing her inner Khaleesi, rather than literally returning to Vaes Dothrak to become the Khal-of-Khals - but I feel that prophesy and visions have been overused to foreshadow specific plot events, and my gut feeling is that that vision is no different.

Accordingly, my pessimistic suspicion is that Dany will spend several TWOW chapters resolving her Dothraki business, which wouldn't bode well for the pace of her story.

1 hour ago, Melifeather said:

Why does Daenerys have to invade or come to Westeros to bring her arc to an end? Why can she not find fulfillment within a different role that has become familiar even if its not what she envisioned for herself? Why not stay with the Dothraki?

True, there are other directions GRRM could go that wouldn't require a return to Westeros. For example, stories centered around the Dothraki, Benerro and Volantis, and the Doom of Valyria, in which Dany's story eventually progresses to dealing with "Fire" sorcery and the broken seasons, independently of everything else playing out in Westeros.

Even so, I'm going with my intuition as to what feels "narratively true" to me, for lack of a better phrase, and what feels narratively true to me is that Dany will set foot on Westerosi soil at least once before she dies, that she will eventually come into conflict with Young Griff, and that she will eventually have her plot line intersect with that of the Others. 

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16 minutes ago, Matthew. said:

prophesy and visions have been overused to foreshadow specific plot events, and my gut feeling is that that vision is no different

I'm only saying I hope you and Snowfyre are wrong.  But if I had to put odds on it, I'd say you're right. 

If GRRM takes that narrative road, the odds are also good the end of TWOW will still find Dany hanging around in Essos. 

If that's true too, it's a safe bet the series will never be concluded, and a sure bet I won't drop a penny on TWOW.

17 minutes ago, Matthew. said:

I'm going with my intuition as to what feels "narratively true" to me, for lack of a better phrase, and what feels narratively true to me is that Dany will set foot on Westerosi soil at least once before she dies, that she will eventually come into conflict with Young Griff, and that she will eventually have her plot line intersect with that of the Others. 

Agreed on all points, except it's not just your intuition.  It's also GRRM's various statements, such as:

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...a second and greater threat takes shape across the narrow sea, where the Dothraki horselords mass their barbarians hordes for a great invasion of the Seven Kingdoms, led by the fierce and beautiful Daenerys Stormborn, the last of the Targaryen dragonlords.

That's from his 1993 outline, but he's all but acknowledged Dany will be invading Westeros at other times over the years.  I seem to recall him doing it in 2006.

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3 hours ago, Blue Eyed Wolf Girl said:

No. No. No. it’s never been stuck in reverse. It just keeps moving forward one ripple at a time that changes based on which choices that you make. Eventually it just creates a bunch of false echoes though. 

Well colour me unconvinced!!

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33 minutes ago, redriver said:

Well colour me unconvinced!!

Wait? Was I supposed to be convincing you? 
 

We are talking about an author that’s known for his realism in this particular series. Yet we expect him to go against the laws of nature and make time reverse? It just doesn’t happen that way. Yes, he might have written  similar nonsense at other times, but that doesn’t mean that he did this time. Life itself is a series of distorted echoes that change based on our own perception and decisions. 

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Forgive my pessimism but the past couple of pages have not been positive on GRRM finishing the books within our life time, especially if as @JNR has proclaimed that Dany will be stuck in Essos at the end of TWOW.  I shudder at the possibility.

However, I continue to remain positive and agree with @Lord Aegon The Compromiser that @redriver will indeed be correct that the blizzard will be emanating out of Winterfell.

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3 hours ago, Mace Cooterian said:

Forgive my pessimism but the past couple of pages have not been positive on GRRM finishing the books within our life time, especially if as @JNR has proclaimed that Dany will be stuck in Essos at the end of TWOW.  I shudder at the possibility.

However, I continue to remain positive and agree with @Lord Aegon The Compromiser that @redriver will indeed be correct that the blizzard will be emanating out of Winterfell.

The worst part of Dany still being in Essos at the end of TWOW is it's basically a sure sign it's going 8 books. This is bad because George is known to take 5-10 years between books now because he is unable to sit down and write ASOIAF without getting distracted and writing something else instead. Or traveling extensively and refusing to write while on the road. I remain optimistic he can finish if it goes 8 books, but only if he gets busy writing ASOIAF, which he doesn't seem likely to do.

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9 hours ago, Matthew. said:

I agree with Snowfyre; I believe that vision is foreshadowing Dany returning to Vaes Dothrak, and emerging leading a massive Khalasar.

I agree with this as well.  She must pass beneath the shadow.

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A Clash of Kings - Daenerys III

Dany's wrist still tingled where Quaithe had touched her. "Where would you have me go?" she asked.
"To go north, you must journey south. To reach the west, you must go east. To go forward you must go back, and to touch the light you must pass beneath the shadow."
Asshai, Dany thought. She would have me go to Asshai. "Will the Asshai'i give me an army?" she demanded. "Will there be gold for me in Asshai? Will there be ships? What is there in Asshai that I will not find in Qarth?"

Many people thought this meant the shadow by Asshai , but of course it means the shadow of the mother of mountains.  It's consistent with her visions in the HoU:

Quote

Faster and faster the visions came, one after the other, until it seemed as if the very air had come alive. Shadows whirled and danced inside a tent, boneless and terrible. A little girl ran barefoot toward a big house with a red door. Mirri Maz Duur shrieked in the flames, a dragon bursting from her brow. Behind a silver horse the bloody corpse of a naked man bounced and dragged. A white lion ran through grass taller than a man. Beneath the Mother of Mountains, a line of naked crones crept from a great lake and knelt shivering before her, their grey heads bowed. Ten thousand slaves lifted bloodstained hands as she raced by on her silver, riding like the wind. "Mother!" they cried. "Mother, mother!" They were reaching for her, touching her, tugging at her cloak, the hem of her skirt, her foot, her leg, her breast. They wanted her, needed her, the fire, the life, and Dany gasped and opened her arms to give herself to them . . .

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A Game of Thrones - Daenerys V

The wild stallion's heart was all muscle, and Dany had to worry it with her teeth and chew each mouthful a long time. No steel was permitted within the sacred confines of Vaes Dothrak, beneath the shadow of the Mother of Mountains; she had to rip the heart apart with teeth and nails. Her stomach roiled and heaved, yet she kept on, her face smeared with the heartsblood that sometimes seemed to explode against her lips.

It's been GRRM's plan since the beginning.  No steel is permitted but Dany will have a dragon and who can gainsay her?  I expect her encounter with crones will also have some mystical aspect or visions 'beneath the mountain, a sacred cave or cave system, possibly a large underground lake.  I think she must submit to some kind of trial there.

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8 hours ago, Melifeather said:

Preparing to invade by amassing a Dothraki horde certainly amps the expectation that she will come to Westeros, but it isn’t confirmation that she will.

I'm not sure that she will either.  The slaves of Volantis are waiting for her to free them.

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29 minutes ago, LynnS said:

I agree with this as well.  She must pass beneath the shadow.

Many people thought this meant the shadow by Asshai , but of course it means the shadow of the mother of mountains.  It's consistent with her visions in the HoU:

It's been GRRM's plan since the beginning.  No steel is permitted but Dany will have a dragon and who can gainsay her?  I expect her encounter with crones will also have some mystical aspect or visions 'beneath the , mountain', a sacred cave or cave system.

But here’s where all of this runs into issues. Who is to say that the prophecy is exactly true. There are a million and one things that can happen to change the path that you are on. The biggest of all of them your own decisions. For example let’s use the prophecy of Danny going to Vaes Dothrak. What happens if she goes but decided not to give herself over to the crones. Or in fact, as been pointed out, she chooses not to go there either. At that point there are a million different ways in which the story might deviate. Maybe at that original point it’s destined that she meet Jon at the wall and end up as a tragic love story in a way. But if she hadn’t given herself over to the crones, then maybe it didn’t need to be that way. Maybe she goes on to live a happy and complete life. Even the same could be said of her returning to Westeros. That again opens a million new possibilities. The Martells already tried to bring her back home and failed. But what happens if someone else shows up to try to do the same thing? Does she make the same choices? Should she stay or should she go? For that matter, what if Jon hears of the threat from the north and decides that he needs to personally escort Danny and her dragons back to Westeros? What happens then? 

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