Heresy 227 and the Great Turtle

[Lord Aegon The Compromiser]

2 hours ago, Blue Eyed Wolf Girl said:

I’m only familiar with the project from a couple years back that ran between TLH and here, not any new ones. I know most of those older ones are still up on TLH’s old WordPress site. Been somewhat out of the game since then, so I’m not really familiar with anything new. If you come across anything from Black Crow then let me know. I don’t have access to TLH anymore. 

It's most likely not anything new. I did alot of digging a few months back. The ending of the show reignited my interest in theories and doing another reread. I know BC has made convincing arguments in the past. I think for A+L= J, but I could be wrong.

[Queen Allyria]

1 hour ago, Lord Aegon The Compromiser said:

If RLJ becomes true in TWOW it will have zero bearing on whether I read ADOS or not. I'll either be disappointed by the end of the books or I won't. They continue to be the best book series I have read. If anything makes me lose interest, it would be GRRM's pace.

Too fast for you?  

[Lord Aegon The Compromiser]

Weird, Heresy 137 and 163 don't exist.

[Lord Aegon The Compromiser]

4 hours ago, Blue Eyed Wolf Girl said:

Too fast for you?  

Yes. I started reading in 2011 and I'm almost done with ACOK. I hope Robb lives!

[Queen Allyria]

3 hours ago, Lord Aegon The Compromiser said:

Weird, Heresy 137 and 163 don't exist.

One of them was “accidentally” deleted for containing information leading to leaked episodes of GoT. I’m not sure which one tho. 

[JNR]

22 hours ago, Lord Aegon The Compromiser said:

Kinda funny we are both hoping GRRM breaks his tendencies, but in different ways. 

Yes.  I think I have somewhat more hope -- that GRRM can finish in two books of 3000 manuscript pages -- than you do, because my hope is identical to GRRM's stated plan from May.

As for him picking up speed -- well, that would be the dream scenario, wouldn't it? He just writes faster.  Then we could get eight novels and everybody including him would be happy with them.

But I really can't make myself believe in that, not based on everything he's turned out in the 21st century and the known speed at which he did it.  A decade per ASOIAF novel, from now on, seems like a strong educated guess to me.

There is actually a third option, of course. He really could put out two huge books and then a small Book Eight of perhaps 5-10 chapters.  But my personal sense is that he would never be able to resist turning that theoretically small book into yet another monster of epic tonnage.  And he would take ten years to do it.

[JNR]

21 hours ago, Melifeather said:

Asserting that if the story doesn’t go the way that you think it should go relegates Winds as “fan fiction” is quite pompous and just plain ridiculous.

It would be wrong to classify it as fanfic in some objective sense.   Fiction is fundamentally subjective.

But it's for all of us to decide, personally, what qualifies as a professional job worth the investment of time and money.  For me, any version of TWOW that leaves Dany in Essos is really not going to suffice.  It will emerge from a failure to rein in wordcount -- spending too many narrative resources on too little story with too little plan, which is typical of amateur writing.

20 hours ago, Blue Eyed Wolf Girl said:

Since when is RLJ a hogwash theory. It’s one on the most strongly evidenced theories out there. But just because something has the most evidence it doesn’t mean that it’s correct.

If I ask you to show me Rhaegar and Lyanna spent ten seconds together in Robert's Rebellion, what objective evidence can you show me? 

GRRM has skillfully created the illusion of evidence, but that's all it is or ever was. The bulk of R+L=J consists not of evidence, but fan conviction and investment; many of the fans can no longer even remember what the canon says, but only what they have said to each other.

[Melifeather]

11 minutes ago, JNR said:

But it's for all of us to decide, personally, what qualifies as a professional job worth the investment of time and money.  For me, any version of TWOW that leaves Dany in Essos is really not going to suffice.  It will emerge from a failure to rein in wordcount -- spending too many narrative resources on too little story with too little plan, which is typical of amateur writing.

Have a little faith! Do any of the books thus far warrant being criticized as “amateur”? You are projecting your own criteria that Dany must invade Westeros in order for Winds to qualify as “professional” without even reading it. What do you plan to do? Wait until somebody else reads it and publicly reveals what happens before deciding to read it yourself?

Does any of this have to do with your encrypted post? Do you face public embarrassment if Dany doesn’t invade Westeros? You seem very invested in this particular outcome.

[Queen Allyria]

1 hour ago, JNR said:

It would be wrong to classify it as fanfic in some objective sense.   Fiction is fundamentally subjective.

But it's for all of us to decide, personally, what qualifies as a professional job worth the investment of time and money.  For me, any version of TWOW that leaves Dany in Essos is really not going to suffice.  It will emerge from a failure to rein in wordcount -- spending too many narrative resources on too little story with too little plan, which is typical of amateur writing.

If I ask you to show me Rhaegar and Lyanna spent ten seconds together in Robert's Rebellion, what objective evidence can you show me? 

GRRM has skillfully created the illusion of evidence, but that's all it is or ever was. The bulk of R+L=J consists not of evidence, but fan conviction and investment; many of the fans can no longer even remember what the canon says, but only what they have said to each other.

Absolutely none. Unless there is some super secret chapter that I’m missing. The only three men she is actually definitely placed by are the Hightower, Whent, and Dayne. Though I do have to say that my personal favorite is Bobby B and I’m pretty sure that he isn’t placed near her either. 

[Melifeather]

Please. Lets not get into a debate about R+L=J. There is an existing ongoing thread for that, and Heresy has also already discussed it.

[divica]

2 hours ago, Melifeather said:

Have a little faith! Do any of the books thus far warrant being criticized as “amateur”? You are projecting your own criteria that Dany must invade Westeros in order for Winds to qualify as “professional” without even reading it. What do you plan to do? Wait until somebody else reads it and publicly reveals what happens before deciding to read it yourself?

Does any of this have to do with your encrypted post? Do you face public embarrassment if Dany doesn’t invade Westeros? You seem very invested in this particular outcome.

Lets be honnest. The worth of affc and adwd depends on their importance in the next books.

A lot of the storylines hit pause in these books. Who thought that we and the characters would learn nothing new about the others in dance? That stannis storyline would evolve zero %? That danny would spend the entire book in one place and by the end acomplish basically nothing? That jon wouldn t train his magical abilities? And several other examples...

I can understand that people will criticize his writting if twow has the same pace as the 2 previous books. It would mean he needs 10 or more books to actually finish the story… For something that started as a trillogy, evolved into 5 books and is currently at 7 it should mean something.

[The Snowfyre Chorus]

On 11/14/2019 at 7:39 PM, JNR said:

I'm only saying I hope you and Snowfyre are wrong.  But if I had to put odds on it, I'd say you're right. 

If GRRM takes that narrative road, the odds are also good the end of TWOW will still find Dany hanging around in Essos. 

The narrative could probably use a... five year gap.

[JNR]

2 hours ago, Melifeather said:

Do any of the books thus far warrant being criticized as “amateur”?

In the specific sense of control over his wordcount, it's his constant failing as a writer. 

I've spent a lot of time singing GRRM's praises on this site. In particular I think he is the very best puzzle-builder the world of F/SF has ever seen, his only possible competition being Gene Wolfe.

But I'm not going to kid myself about whether he's repeatedly lost control of his narrative.  He's done it in every book, and he's admitted it many times.  

Every time he says something like "I realized I had written 1500 manuscript pages and was nowhere near the ending," that is what he is admitting.  He had a fixed length in which to achieve his goals and he just did not do it... so he had to do things like split AFFC into two books as a result, with half the POVs missing from one of them.

If he does it again in TWOW, I'm not going to buy or read the book.  What others do, how they feel, is up to them.

As for the premise that GRRM's plan is not to take Dany to Westeros to stake her claim to the throne -- I can only say I think he's been really blatant about that being his plan all along, from his 1993 outline to the present day.  I can't read that outline or read the canon or the huge pile of SSMs and draw any other conclusion.  I can quote some for you, if you like.

1 hour ago, Blue Eyed Wolf Girl said:

Absolutely none. Unless there is some super secret chapter that I’m missing.

You're not missing a thing.  (Actually, you seem much better informed to me than most fans on this subject and you strike me as remarkably well informed on Heresy, too.)

[Melifeather]

4 hours ago, divica said:

Lets be honnest. The worth of affc and adwd depends on their importance in the next books.

A lot of the storylines hit pause in these books. Who thought that we and the characters would learn nothing new about the others in dance? That stannis storyline would evolve zero %? That danny would spend the entire book in one place and by the end acomplish basically nothing? That jon wouldn t train his magical abilities? And several other examples...

I can understand that people will criticize his writting if twow has the same pace as the 2 previous books. It would mean he needs 10 or more books to actually finish the story… For something that started as a trillogy, evolved into 5 books and is currently at 7 it should mean something.

Why would you doubt my honesty? 

I guess I interpret the books very differently than you, because I never had the impression that the storylines hit "pause". 

IMO the wildlings are the Others and have manufactured a threat. They recruited six volunteers to sacrifice their human lives to become white walkers. Is there any existing text to support this idea? It depends upon how explicit you need the proof to be.

Stannis is the current "game's" King Sherrit who called down his curse upon the Andals from the Nightfort.

Daenerys has already repeated a number of historical events, namely the origin of dragons (mother) and the Dance of the Dragons 2.0. 

Jon Snow is about to repeat the role of the Nights King.

GRRM is setting up a pretty significant reveal where AFFC and ADWD will make more sense. The explanations will have to come through Bran POVs, because I believe they have to do with the wheel of time, historic events, and the manipulation of time.

3 hours ago, JNR said:

Every time he says something like "I realized I had written 1500 manuscript pages and was nowhere near the ending," that is what he is admitting.  He had a fixed length in which to achieve his goals and he just did not do it... so he had to do things like split AFFC into two books as a result, with half the POVs missing from one of them.

GRRM has said in interviews that he doesn't like his imagination to be restricted to page counts. He left a Hollywood career writing tv shows, because his ideas were too big for the small screen - even movie screens. Maybe the reason why he's taking so long is because he's being pressured to cut his story? Maybe he has way more written than Winds can encompass?

3 hours ago, JNR said:

As for the premise that GRRM's plan is not to take Dany to Westeros to stake her claim to the throne -- I can only say I think he's been really blatant about that being his plan all along, from his 1993 outline to the present day.  I can't read that outline or read the canon or the huge pile of SSMs and draw any other conclusion.  I can quote some for you, if you like.

I'm probably just as familiar with the quotes as you are, but I still suspect that he wanted to build anticipation and expectation that she would come, but in the end, she'll choose not to. I'm sure people would have a difficult time accepting that idea just as they did when they read about the Red Wedding. (I actually threw my book across the room after reading it.)

[Lord Aegon The Compromiser]

10 hours ago, JNR said:

Yes.  I think I have somewhat more hope -- that GRRM can finish in two books of 3000 manuscript pages -- than you do, because my hope is identical to GRRM's stated plan from May.

As for him picking up speed -- well, that would be the dream scenario, wouldn't it? He just writes faster.  Then we could get eight novels and everybody including him would be happy with them.

But I really can't make myself believe in that, not based on everything he's turned out in the 21st century and the known speed at which he did it.  A decade per ASOIAF novel, from now on, seems like a strong educated guess to me.

There is actually a third option, of course. He really could put out two huge books and then a small Book Eight of perhaps 5-10 chapters.  But my personal sense is that he would never be able to resist turning that theoretically small book into yet another monster of epic tonnage.  And he would take ten years to do it.

You do believe in him finishing in 3000 MS pages more than I do. His TWOW preview chapters don't make it seem like he will finish in 3000 MS pages. It's been 2+ years since the publishers asked him to split TWOW, which tells me he probably had well over 1500 MS pages of just TWOW content, without getting into ADOS content. I've said before if he finishes in two books they'd probably have to be 2500+ MS pages each and that IMO feels more like what's needed to wrap up all the loose ends. Especially since we are still getting travelogue chapters that don't really move the plot. 

As a fan I'd rather read 3 more interesting books than 2. But knowing he'll take absolutely forever per book, I do actually hope he wraps this up in 7. I agree if he needed an 8th book for only 500 MS pages of content, he'd find a way to make it 1500 MS pages anyway.

I know he has stated as recently as May that he will finish in 7 books, I just don't believe him, if they are only 1500 MS pages each. He'd have to return to AGOT-ASOS pacing, which TWOW preview chapters demonstrate isn't going to happen. I could be wrong though, maybe those are the only remaining chapters that don't move the plot quickly.

Question: Obviously we don't actually know, but am I wrong in assuming he was well over 1500 MS pages when his publishers asked him to split TWOW? It seems logical to me that it meant he had two books worth of content.

Which makes it weird he'd spent multiple years trimming it to 1500 MS pages rather than release it as is (after editing and polishing of course) and move on to writing ADOS content.

[Lord Aegon The Compromiser]

10 hours ago, Blue Eyed Wolf Girl said:

Absolutely none. Unless there is some super secret chapter that I’m missing. The only three men she is actually definitely placed by are the Hightower, Whent, and Dayne. Though I do have to say that my personal favorite is Bobby B and I’m pretty sure that he isn’t placed near her either. 

What canon places Lyanna with Hightower, Whent and Dayne? 

[Lord Aegon The Compromiser]

9 hours ago, Melifeather said:

Please. Lets not get into a debate about R+L=J. There is an existing ongoing thread for that, and Heresy has also already discussed it.

I wouldn't mind being linked to convincing X+X=J theories.

[Queen Allyria]

10 minutes ago, Lord Aegon The Compromiser said:

What canon places Lyanna with Hightower, Whent and Dayne? 

Sorta, kinda, maybe Ned’s fevered dream in the black cells. Which, of course, may or may not be an accurate reflection of events

[Lord Aegon The Compromiser]

Always worth a reread is BC's Ronin essay. Post #398:

 

[Black Crow]

Not a bad one even though I say so myself, but as to the wider story and its outcomes I'd just make a couple of points.

GRRM has said that he knows the ending and hasn't changed it despite reader speculation. I've no reason to doubt it, but 1993 was nigh on 27 years ago and there's something seriously wrong with him if he hasn't tinkered with the road map and completely changed some of the routes to that ending. There are, after all, significant differences already between the synopsis and the book as written.

That is also where the R+L=J theory comes into question, because its far more than a straightforward matter of counting on fingers and deciding that 1 + 1 + 2, sorted. Its all the baggage that comes with it and all the imagined significances attaching to that particular equation. The problem is where we are in the book. In the original projected three volume version it appears that Jon [and Arya] learn he's not Lord Eddard's son until very late in the day. Here in the as-written version we're eagerly awaiting book 6 of 7 and it hasn't happened yet. Nor, given the current situation is it likely to happen until book 7 of 7. Whatever the actual outcome its a wrapping up rather than a crucial plot issue - in fact its never been a plot issue since the initial chapters establishing that he is the bastard.

The point being, that it seems too late in the day for it to assume the significance accorded it by the faithful. GRRM doresn't strike me as working towards a "with one bound Jack was free" ending. His true parentage is an issue and one which will be resolved while he's above ground according to GRRM, but this whole saga doesn't revolve around it.