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Heresy 227 and the Great Turtle


Black Crow

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17 hours ago, Melifeather said:

Maybe the reason why he's taking so long is because he's being pressured to cut his story? Maybe he has way more written than Winds can encompass?

If he wants to finish ASOIAF at all, he has exactly two choices:

1. His current plan is to write two more very long books -- ASOS-length books.

It's a good plan. If he executes it professionally, I think it can work. By "professionally," I just mean (1) he gets it done in the next ten years, and (2) these two vast, ASOS-length novels tell all the remaining story.

2. His other choice is to speed up as a writer and thus write more than two books. If he could do that, then sure, it wouldn't matter if "he has way more written than Winds can encompass."

But as he himself has said countless times, he is a very slow writer.  It's hard to imagine he is suddenly, at this point, going to speed up and become a much faster writer, such that he could write a Book Eight and be done with ASOIAF before 2040 or so. 

I imagine he knows this quite well, that's exactly why he was still sticking to his two-book plan as of May of this year.

And I still think there's a good chance he can do it because in the end, GRRM is smart as a whip and he has more incentive, at this point in his life, to write in an efficient way than he's ever had before.  He craves that book Hugo and he is deeply invested in his legacy. Nobody, least of all me, should doubt he has the mind and the skills to succeed in his plan.

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11 hours ago, Blue Eyed Wolf Girl said:

Sorta, kinda, maybe Ned’s fevered dream in the black cells. Which, of course, may or may not be an accurate reflection of events

Yea, this is the only link, but it's worth noting that George has warned a reader in the past not to take the dream too literally:

Quote
CONCERNING THE TOWER OF JOY

I have a question which I'm sure you can (and will?) answer. It's about the Tower of Joy. The image we get from Ned's description is pretty powerful. But it doesn't make sense. The top three kingsguards, including the lord commander amd the best knight in ages, Ser Arthur Dayne are present there. Lyanna is in the tower, she asked Ned to promise him something. This, so says the general consensus us little Jon Snow, who is Lyanna's and Rhaegar's. No sense denying this ;)

However, what are the Kingsguards doing fighting Eddard? Eddard would never hurt Lyanna, nor her child. The little one would be safe with Eddard as well, him being a close relative. So I ask you, was there someone else with Lyanna and Jon?

You'll need to wait for future books to find out more about the Tower of Joy and what happened there, I fear.

I might mention, though, that Ned's account, which you refer to, was in the context of a dream... and a fever dream at that. Our dreams are not always literal.

Since Ned's memories seem to confirm that Ned fought the three kingsguards at the tower of joy, and Ned's memories confirm that he was at Lyanna's bedside when she passed away, it begs the question, why shouldn't we take Ned's fever dream literally?

I think the answer is that Ned's memory never actually links Lyanna's deathbed scene as being at the same time and location as the battle at the tower of joy. That's the interesting thing about dreams, they can link together different memories which occurred at different times and places.  Ned's subconscious linking of these two events together may not be because they happened at the same time and the same place.

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12 hours ago, Lord Aegon The Compromiser said:

His TWOW preview chapters don't make it seem like he will finish in 3000 MS pages.

Yeah, this is a point I've made myself... with worry in my head... many times. 

I'd put it like this: I believe he can learn to be an architect more than I believe he can accelerate his total writing pace and thus publish three or more huge books in the next ten years.

I think he sees it the same way.

12 hours ago, Lord Aegon The Compromiser said:

Obviously we don't actually know, but am I wrong in assuming he was well over 1500 MS pages when his publishers asked him to split TWOW?

Well, as you say, we don't know.

I would guess it's more about just basic projection.  If you are somebody like Anne Groell, you are extremely familiar with GRRM's nature and tendencies, and also with the canon that remains to be written. 

So you can easily project forward and see that finishing in only seven books would require a very un-GRRM-like efficiency in storytelling execution... and you might gently suggest to him, many times for years now, that he may actually need eight books, even though you have never read all of TWOW or anywhere close to it.

I'm pretty sure she's done interviews in which she says exactly that, in fact.  And they are old ones, when he had only done a few hundred pages of TWOW.

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Also, re the TWOW sample chapters: We don't know they still exist in that form.

It's possible GRRM has already realized he needs to get more efficient, and has already heavily edited or even deleted some of them, shifting the best bits they contained to other points in the narrative.

So we can't really use them as an index to gauge his current approach, only his approach at the time he released them, which was years ago.

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11 hours ago, Lord Aegon The Compromiser said:

I wouldn't mind being linked to convincing X+X=J theories.

I believe @wolfmaid7 placed links to the essays in The Heretic's Guide to Heresy. In the opening post there's a spoiler drop down with links to the various essays. Although I might add that my essay regarding Mance is quite far-fetched and not anything that I currently believe. I actually believe Ned and Ashara are Jon's parents and that Ashara had disguised herself as Wylla, just as Sansa is now Alayne.

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1 hour ago, Frey family reunion said:

Yea, this is the only link, but it's worth noting that George has warned a reader in the past not to take the dream too literally:

Since Ned's memories seem to confirm that Ned fought the three kingsguards at the tower of joy, and Ned's memories confirm that he was at Lyanna's bedside when she passed away, it begs the question, why shouldn't we take Ned's fever dream literally?

I think the answer is that Ned's memory never actually links Lyanna's deathbed scene as being at the same time and location as the battle at the tower of joy. That's the interesting thing about dreams, they can link together different memories which occurred at different times and places.  Ned's subconscious linking of these two events together may not be because they happened at the same time and the same place.

Very true. And sometimes. Maybe just sometimes your personal choices can completely change the outcome. 

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32 minutes ago, alienarea said:

In my opinion Ned's fever dream about the Tower of Joy and Lyanna's death is an outstanding scene but doesn't fit / complicates the story - it's the root of many problems.

It also raises a question. If R+L=J and we accept the scenario of the Kings Guard fighting to the death in order to protect their infant monarch, then we have it revealed in what is indeed an outstanding scene, albeit Jon himself is unmentioned and the incident is never mentioned again. That, like the later reference to Craster's sons, might simply be read as evidence of his genius as a writer. He drops a significant clue and then leaves us to it. Except that he doesn't. He issues a health warning. It doesn't necessarily mean what people think it does. Its reasonable to conclude that there's a connection between the fight and Lyanna's death, but if R+L=J why should it matter that the dream may not be literal?

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On 11/14/2019 at 7:13 PM, Matthew. said:

I agree with Snowfyre; I believe that vision is foreshadowing Dany returning to Vaes Dothrak, and emerging leading a massive Khalasar.

On 11/14/2019 at 7:39 PM, JNR said:

I'm only saying I hope you and Snowfyre are wrong.  But if I had to put odds on it, I'd say you're right. 


Been a while since we discussed that, so I’m not sure I recall the specific context of the opinion I offered.  

I do think the vision foretells her story with the Dothraki. I don’t care one way or the other whether Dany actually returns to Vaes Dothrak and experiences that particular scene as depicted in the vision... but I’m with JNR, I don’t want to have to read 2-3 chapters about Dany’s journeying there, one describing the scene in detail, and another 2-3 depicting the approach of her Dothraki horde to Meereen... etc, etc.

If the opening words of Dany’s first chapter in WINDS are something like:

Quote

“From Drogo’s back, Dany gazed down upon the Red Keep, and recalled the carnage her Dothraki had left at Meereen. She watched her delegation of dosh khaleen proceed through the streets of King’s Landing, and wondered if the crones might negotiate the city’s surrender. Not likely, she thought...

Well, then I’d be perfectly fine inferring that the earlier vision (of crones emerging from the lake) had been fulfilled. And I’d also celebrate GRRM’s decision to skip retelling it in greater detail.

I do sort of long for the days when Catelyn Stark teleported from place to place as she traveled Westeros in books one and two.  I wonder if Lady Stoneheart retained that superpower?

 

 

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2 hours ago, Black Crow said:

It also raises a question. If R+L=J and we accept the scenario of the Kings Guard fighting to the death in order to protect their infant monarch, then we have it revealed in what is indeed an outstanding scene, albeit Jon himself is unmentioned and the incident is never mentioned again. That, like the later reference to Craster's sons, might simply be read as evidence of his genius as a writer. He drops a significant clue and then leaves us to it. Except that he doesn't. He issues a health warning. It doesn't necessarily mean what people think it does. Its reasonable to conclude that there's a connection between the fight and Lyanna's death, but if R+L=J why should it matter that the dream may not be literal?

You need to read the wider question before the answer and then its plain to see.

Quote

I have a question which I'm sure you can (and will?) answer. It's about the Tower of Joy. The image we get from Ned's description is pretty powerful. But it doesn't make sense. The top three kingsguards, including the lord commander amd the best knight in ages, Ser Arthur Dayne are present there. Lyanna is in the tower, she asked Ned to promise him something. This, so says the general consensus us little Jon Snow, who is Lyanna's and Rhaegar's. No sense denying this ;)

However, what are the Kingsguards doing fighting Eddard? Eddard would never hurt Lyanna, nor her child. The little one would be safe with Eddard as well, him being a close relative. So I ask you, was there someone else with Lyanna and Jon?

You'll need to wait for future books to find out more about the Tower of Joy and what happened there, I fear.

I might mention, though, that Ned's account, which you refer to, was in the context of a dream... and a fever dream at that. Our dreams are not always literal.

Also, did the Kingsguards know what was in the Tower?

Certainly.

Cheers, I really hope you will answer these questions for me, I'll not bother you again if you do, I promise hahaha.

Merry Christmas btw, it's almost on us!

And a happy new year to you.

The questioner had already outright stated what he/she believed the bulk of the hidden elements of the scene were. Whether you agree with them or not, there are two options.
Either the questioner is right (or right enough), or the questioner is wrong.
Remember, this was 2002, 3 years before even AFFC had been released.

If the questioner is wrong, GRRM could simply avoid answering the question based on the false premises. Though even that would give away things.
If the questioner is right, or nearly right, GRRM has a huge problem. He can't deny the premises or he goes on record as a liar. Besides, the questioner has already pre-empted a denial by pointing out that the conclusions are clear and not really deniable (despite the existence of Heresy now! :D)

But the premises have been stated blatantly. If GRRM does not address that in his answer somehow, the scene loses its mystery, its potency, and the elements are revealed far, far to early for him.

So instead he obfuscates. He not only doesn't answer the question, he throws out a clever line that is true (but misleading - its not just a fever dream, its an old dream, an instantly familiar dream, one Ned recognises in depth at its very beginning) and attempts to show that anything the dream tells you might be just the product of a fever. And he didn't even say that the dream was not literal. Just that our dreams are not always (therefore are sometimes!) literal.

Why is it important for him to cast doubt upon the dream? Because several of his secrets were directly revealed by it, as covered by the questioner. And he wants to reveal those secrets himself, in his own way, in his own time.

 

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7 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

Since Ned's memories seem to confirm that Ned fought the three kingsguards at the tower of joy, and Ned's memories confirm that he was at Lyanna's bedside when she passed away, it begs the question, why shouldn't we take Ned's fever dream literally?

Especially if several of the elements of that dream turn out to be present, even if the outcome is different than expected. 

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9 hours ago, corbon said:

You need to read the wider question before the answer and then its plain to see.

The questioner had already outright stated what he/she believed the bulk of the hidden elements of the scene were. Whether you agree with them or not, there are two options.
Either the questioner is right (or right enough), or the questioner is wrong.
Remember, this was 2002, 3 years before even AFFC had been released.

If the questioner is wrong, GRRM could simply avoid answering the question based on the false premises. Though even that would give away things.
If the questioner is right, or nearly right, GRRM has a huge problem. He can't deny the premises or he goes on record as a liar. Besides, the questioner has already pre-empted a denial by pointing out that the conclusions are clear and not really deniable (despite the existence of Heresy now! :D)

But the premises have been stated blatantly. If GRRM does not address that in his answer somehow, the scene loses its mystery, its potency, and the elements are revealed far, far to early for him.

So instead he obfuscates. He not only doesn't answer the question, he throws out a clever line that is true (but misleading - its not just a fever dream, its an old dream, an instantly familiar dream, one Ned recognises in depth at its very beginning) and attempts to show that anything the dream tells you might be just the product of a fever. And he didn't even say that the dream was not literal. Just that our dreams are not always (therefore are sometimes!) literal.

Why is it important for him to cast doubt upon the dream? Because several of his secrets were directly revealed by it, as covered by the questioner. And he wants to reveal those secrets himself, in his own way, in his own time.

 

Well, we plainly need to agree to cheerfully disagree on this one because as you say context is everything and in this particular context the questioner was challenging GRRM to confirm a hypothesis existing in the questioner's mind but not on the page.

There is unquestionably a mystery of some  kind surrounding the dream, but one capable of different interpretations and GRRM simply warned the interviewer that it is more complicated than he assumed.

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29 minutes ago, Black Crow said:

Well, we plainly need to agree to cheerfully disagree on this one because as you say context is everything and in this particular context the questioner was challenging GRRM to confirm a hypothesis existing in the questioner's mind but not on the page.

It's funny.  I had the impression that GRRM was being baited.  The question sounds a lot like something a journalist might ask to get a reaction, verbal or non-verbal to the premise "that we all know the answer".

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15 hours ago, The Snowfyre Chorus said:

Well, then I’d be perfectly fine inferring that the earlier vision (of crones emerging from the lake) had been fulfilled. And I’d also celebrate GRRM’s decision to skip retelling it in greater detail.

There are a couple of things that come to mind. One, that GRRM said that Dany would not literally go to Asshai but that she would learn something about it.  So going by other means.  The notion that she has to go back to go forward means going back to Vaes Dothrak before she can go forward.  Or go back to the past to go forward.  At least it does to my mind.  I still think she has to resolve the fire side of the equation just as Jon and Bran have to resolve the ice side.  I think that business will keep her in Essos for a while.  

I'm also of the mind that when she does go to Westeros, it will be to support Aegon rather than confront him over the throne.

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12 minutes ago, LynnS said:

I still think she has to resolve the fire side of the equation just as Jon and Bran have to resolve the ice side.  I think that business will keep her in Essos for a while.  

Maybe. But it seems to me that she has been in Essos for entirely too long already. I think she just might not be sure where she needs to be next. Once she receives adequate direction I suspect the pace of the story will accelerate rapidly. 

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16 minutes ago, LynnS said:

I'm also of the mind that when she does go to Westeros, it will be to support Aegon rather than confront him over the throne.

Certainly. If Aegon is the rightful heir it seems that Dany would more than support his claim. After all, they are family. 

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3 hours ago, Blue Eyed Wolf Girl said:

Maybe. But it seems to me that she has been in Essos for entirely too long already. I think she just might not be sure where she needs to be next. Once she receives adequate direction I suspect the pace of the story will accelerate rapidly. 

Yes, I expect it will moving quickly once she has 'touched the light' and joined the Khalasars together.  Moving on horseback and dragon will take her where she needs to go fairly quickly.  She will mow over any opposition, I expect.   She will needs ships to get across the Narrow Sea. 

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53 minutes ago, LynnS said:

Yes, I expect it will moving quickly once she has 'touched the light' and joined the Khalasars together.  Moving on horseback and dragon will take her where she needs to go fairly quickly.  She will mow over any opposition, I expect.   She will needs ships to get across the Narrow Sea. 

I suspect she might just be done running all over the place to get nowhere. 

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5 minutes ago, Blue Eyed Wolf Girl said:

I suspect she might just be done running all over the place to get nowhere. 

I think Martin has to resolve this business with Quaithe.  I think Dany also has to  confront Volantis and the Great Red Temple.  So she has to go North to get an army before she can go South to Volantis.  I see her going back to Mereen and to Volantis subduing the Eastern seaboard along the way to Volantis.  From Volantis, west to Dorne.  So go east to go west. 

I can't see any reason for her to go back to Qaarth although Martin has hinted that we will get more about Qaarth.  If so, then this is likely to have something to do with Euron or Victarion.

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